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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

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  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2019
    Arsenal are illustrating my earlier point.

    Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal have massive distractions. It doesn't matter how much Poch, Sarri or Emery claim otherwise, the players are knackered and European semi-finals are huge.

    That's also why I fear for Liverpool. But, and it's a big but, playing for the PL title is more of an incentive than playing for a top 4 place. (Failing to qualify for the CL is actually massive but that's not how the players will currently be thinking.)

    I still reckon that a two-leg Champions League Semi-Final AND the Premier League title race is a massive massive ask for the final fortnight when the players are on their knees.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    It will be Labour votes passing the WA with a CU in the PD anyway, most Tories would vote against.

    The PD is not legally binding though unlike the WA

    And there's the problem. If the WA passes, I imagine May stands down fairly quickly. If, as you say, Johnson or Raab successfully navigate the sea of electoral misfortune and end up as Prime Minister, they will immediately rip up the commitment to the CU to satisfy their own backbenchers and spike the BP.

    If I can see that, Corbyn and Labour can see that and that's why the WA won't pass. It also keeps May and your party swinging impotently in the breeze.
    While the Brexit Party wins Labour heartland seats in the European Parliament elections
    You ought to stop hanging around with the CV falsifier Duncan-Smith as you seem to be drawn to his intellectual level.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    While the Brexit Party wins Labour heartland seats in the European Parliament elections

    Yes but how important are these MEPs to both Labour and the Conservatives? I suspect not much and especially if we are supposed to be leaving the EU.

    As you have pointed out, UKIP won 26.6% of the vote in 2014 and the Conservatives 23.1% in 2014 but it was David Cameron not Nigel Farage who won a majority at the 2015 GE.

    Labour, not UKIP, emerged as the main opposition so, much as the LDs found in the past, how does the BP convert protest votes at an EU Parliamentary election into votes for a Westminster GE? As OGH has suggested, the BP policy programme beyond Brexit may not look so attractive to large parts of the electorate.
    A way it could happen is if people are so disenfranchised by both the major parties of old that they are no longer motivated to vote for their team for fear of the other getting in. UKIP would have got a lot more than 12.6% in 2015 if people knew the Tories wouldnt deliver Brexit after a Leave vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Scott_P said:
    This could be the opportunity for the real Conservatives to get back control of their party.
    Both of them....
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019

    Meanwhile in Spain it looks like from early turnout we may see a surge in successionist and Spanish nationalist votes. Another highly polarised major European state...

    Successionist? Are the Hapsburgs planning a comeback?
    Perhaps; nobody expects the Spanish Hapsburgs.



  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Meanwhile in Spain it looks like from early turnout we may see a surge in successionist and Spanish nationalist votes. Another highly polarised major European state...

    Successionist? Are the Hapsburgs planning a comeback?
    Perhaps; nobody expects the Spanish Habsburgs.



    Less of your lip (I fear I may have exhausted the Hapsburg puns in a oner).
  • NEW THREAD

  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime

    A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
    Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
    The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.

    The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
    This is complete hysteria. Where will the votes come from to win even the most Brexity seats like Kingston upon Hull East?
    Havering as I said earlier
    Wouldn't voters in Havering still back ERG anti May dealers like Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell?

    Would the BP actually run against Tory MPs who agree with them - which includes almost every Essex Tory MP for example.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    NEW THREAD

    Really?
  • NEW THREAD

    Really?
    yes
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime

    A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
    Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
    The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.

    The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
    This is complete hysteria. Where will the votes come from to win even the most Brexity seats like Kingston upon Hull East?
    Havering as I said earlier
    Wouldn't voters in Havering still back ERG anti May dealers like Julia Lopez and Andrew Rosindell?

    Would the BP actually run against Tory MPs who agree with them - which includes almost every Essex Tory MP for example.
    Farage has said No apparently
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The silent majority may well now be to remain and you are too immersed in the IDS hard brexit rhetoric that will not command a majority at anytime

    A 6% lead is all the BP needs for a majority under FPTP
    Can you give some examples of the seats you think BXP will win at the margins to get their majority?
    The BP would win most Northern and Midlands and Welsh seats if we are still in the EU by the next general election outside Manchester and Liverpool and Newcastle and Cardiff.

    The BP would also win most southern seats bar a few Remain areas like Oxfordshire and Surrey. They would also win a few parts of London like Barking and Havering
    I am afraid this is pure fantasy and psephological garbage.
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