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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    My first moped was a Honda C50. It looked like it had been run over by a tank but was faster than any of the swanky new fake motor bikes that my richer friends parents had bought them for their 16th birthdays.Then there was a Fizz, then a few more death machines until I eventually traded up to a Suzuki PE175 at the age of 17 and had far too many narrow escapes. As you say, it's a wonder more of us didn't meet the reaper. Luckily at 18 I managed to pass my driving test and acquired a Vauxhall Viva!
    It was working in main A and E that cured my love of motorcycles. I remember one or two very vividly indeed, amongst the various ghosts haunting me over the decades.

    The pure pleasure of biking on the open road on a naked bike has never left me though. The only thing that has come close has been downhill skiing on black runs. That risk of major injury is part of the pleasure. That sweet taste of immediate danger that @Dura_Ace still seems to crave.
    No2 Grandson is 16 this week; at this stage in his fathers life he couldn't wait to go and buy a 50c bike. However grandson isn't interested; wants to wait for next year and to drive.
    Oddly, Grandson 1 didn't want a bike, either, although his father, son-in-law still rides one.

    Edit. 50 cc, not 500. That came later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    Rentoul:

    "I don’t think it is outlandish to predict that Farage’s outfit could overtake the Tories in the opinion polls for the next general election. Instead of people talking about how hard it is for Change UK to break through in the “first past the post” voting system, they will be discussing where the tipping point between the Tories and the Brexit Party might be."

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election yes, I think there is a real danger the Tories fall to third behind Labour and the Brexit Party.

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    Neo-natal palliative care presents some very, very difficult choices for both parents and medical and nursing staff.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    I think you’ll find it was Governor Ralph Northam who originally did that when defending a late-term abortion bill, and then a bunch of Democratic politicians jumped on the bandwagon.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,703
    edited April 2019

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    My first moped was a Honda C50. It looked like it had been run over by a tank but was faster than any of the swanky new fake motor bikes that my richer friends parents had bought them for their 16th birthdays.Then there was a Fizz, then a few more death machines until I eventually traded up to a Suzuki PE175 at the age of 17 and had far too many narrow escapes. As you say, it's a wonder more of us didn't meet the reaper. Luckily at 18 I managed to pass my driving test and acquired a Vauxhall Viva!
    It was working in main A and E that cured my love of motorcycles. I remember one or two very vividly indeed, amongst the various ghosts haunting me over the decades.

    The pure pleasure of biking on the open road on a naked bike has never left me though. The only thing that has come close has been downhill skiing on black runs. That risk of major injury is part of the pleasure. That sweet taste of immediate danger that @Dura_Ace still seems to crave.
    No2 Grandson is 16 this week; at this stage in his fathers life he couldn't wait to go and buy a 500c bike. However grandson isn't interested; wants to wait for next year and to drive.
    Oddly, Grandson 1 didn't want a bike, either, although his father, son-in-law still rides one.
    Used to love bikes until I broke my back at 19 on a Suzuki 250. Bit of a life changer tbh. Have stuck to cars ever since!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited April 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    You've been watching far too much Goldfinger!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    HYUFD said:
    What about the 90% of respondents who said 'What the feck are you on about?'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    I think you’ll find it was Governor Ralph Northam who originally did that when defending a late-term abortion bill, and then a bunch of Democratic politicians jumped on the bandwagon.
    Yes, he is not the only one discussing such sensitive issues in such a way. The party politicisation of such issues in America is something that I am glad that we do not have here.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    HYUFD said:

    Rentoul:

    "I don’t think it is outlandish to predict that Farage’s outfit could overtake the Tories in the opinion polls for the next general election. Instead of people talking about how hard it is for Change UK to break through in the “first past the post” voting system, they will be discussing where the tipping point between the Tories and the Brexit Party might be."

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election yes, I think there is a real danger the Tories fall to third behind Labour and the Brexit Party.

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage
    That sure sounds like its in the national interest... Further divide the country to save the Conservative Party. Nice.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    HYUFD said:
    What about the 90% of respondents who said 'What the feck are you on about?'

    I’m seeing Endgame for the second time this afternoon. 👌
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244

    You've been watching far too much Goldfinger!

    :-)

    Best Bond film. Not even worth debating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    kinabalu said:

    You've been watching far too much Goldfinger!

    :-)

    Best Bond film. Not even worth debating.
    You Only Live Twice. If only for Sean Connery pretending to be Japanese. And the gyrocopter of course!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    I think you’ll find it was Governor Ralph Northam who originally did that when defending a late-term abortion bill, and then a bunch of Democratic politicians jumped on the bandwagon.
    Yes, he is not the only one discussing such sensitive issues in such a way. The party politicisation of such issues in America is something that I am glad that we do not have here.
    Wikipedia suggests that Governor Northam took the sort of view we would probably take here. On most, if not all, sides of what now appears to be a political octagon.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,384

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Oh happy days!

    I acquired an Elsie like that once. I think I am too old to wheelie away from the lights now...
    Crashed one of them as well. 1981 RD250LC in red/white. It was my first proper bike and would just do 100mph if I laid flat on the tank and seat with my feet hanging over the rear light.
    And all on L plates with no requirement for lessons. It's a wonder anyone survived.

    I only came off once at speed. Just bruises fortunately.

    Though confession time, my first bike was an MZ. Worst brakes, tires and electrics of any vehicle I have owned.
    My first moped was a Honda C50. It looked like it had been run over by a tank but was faster than any of the swanky new fake motor bikes that my richer friends parents had bought them for their 16th birthdays.Then there was a Fizz, then a few more death machines until I eventually a Vauxhall Viva!
    It was working in main A and E that cured my love of motorcycles. I remember one or two very vividly indeed, amongst the various ghosts haunting me over the decades.

    The pure pleasure of biking on the open road on a naked bike has never left me though. The only thing that has come close has been downhill skiing on black runs. That risk of major injury is part of the pleasure. That sweet taste of immediate danger that @Dura_Ace still seems to crave.
    No2 Grandson is 16 this week; at this stage in his fathers life he couldn't wait to go and buy a 500c bike. However grandson isn't interested; wants to wait for next year and to drive.
    Oddly, Grandson 1 didn't want a bike, either, although his father, son-in-law still rides one.
    Used to love bikes until I broke my back at 19 on a Suzuki 250. Bit of a life changer tbh. Have stuck to cars ever since!
    The only time my grandfather threatened to beat my father was when the latter intended to buy a motorbike. My grandfather was a police officer, who regularly witnessed the aftermath of motorcycle crashes.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    I think you’ll find it was Governor Ralph Northam who originally did that when defending a late-term abortion bill, and then a bunch of Democratic politicians jumped on the bandwagon.
    Yes, he is not the only one discussing such sensitive issues in such a way. The party politicisation of such issues in America is something that I am glad that we do not have here.
    Wikipedia suggests that Governor Northam took the sort of view we would probably take here. On most, if not all, sides of what now appears to be a political octagon.
    Governor Northam is a Paediatric Neurologist, so is actually fairly knowledgeable on the subject.

    His quote is actually far more reasonable than Trump's bombastic construction.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/card/fact-check-gov-northam-was-caught-advocating-infanticide-n967626
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:
    Putting that into the Scottish EMA gives two extra seats to the SNP on 43. One seat each from Con and Lab.
    Given the number of seats with sub 1% majorities in Scotland I don't see how that is feasible. You'd be looking at 5 SNP gains minimum on those figures.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Sean_F said:

    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.

    Quite.

    And with Trump, something darker. The sheer brazenness of it. He's saying, "Look, I'm cheating, we both know it, and I don't care that you know. In fact I like that you know and that you can't and won't say anything about it."

    It's another power play, a form of bullying, of humiliating others. Just like Goldfinger.

    So what do we need? Ideally a Bond. But failing that, Kamala Harris will have to do. Bet she doesn't cheat at anything.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sean_F said:



    The only time my grandfather threatened to beat my father was when the latter intended to buy a motorbike. My grandfather was a police officer, who regularly witnessed the aftermath of motorcycle crashes.

    My father to his mother: You know my motorbike? I sold it.

    Grandmother: Oh thank God thank God thank God my prayers have been answered I will be able to sleep at night again.

    Him: To my brother.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,244
    Foxy said:

    You Only Live Twice. If only for Sean Connery pretending to be Japanese. And the gyrocopter of course!

    OK, valid points. But THIS cannot be topped -

    https://www.pinterest.com/pin/349451252305768384/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,483
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Trump talking about neonatal palliative care at a MAGA rally in Wisconsin.

    https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1122317554582794240?s=19

    I’m not sure I understand your problem? He’s paraphrasing what some Democratic politicians have said they want to do.
    He is deliberately* confusing neonatal pallative care, for those born with fatal conditions with late term abortion.

    Reason has departed American politics, on both sides, and is edging towards the door here too.

    *either that or he is too thick to understand the difference.
    I think you’ll find it was Governor Ralph Northam who originally did that when defending a late-term abortion bill, and then a bunch of Democratic politicians jumped on the bandwagon.
    Yes, he is not the only one discussing such sensitive issues in such a way. The party politicisation of such issues in America is something that I am glad that we do not have here.
    Wikipedia suggests that Governor Northam took the sort of view we would probably take here. On most, if not all, sides of what now appears to be a political octagon.
    Governor Northam is a Paediatric Neurologist, so is actually fairly knowledgeable on the subject.

    His quote is actually far more reasonable than Trump's bombastic construction.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/card/fact-check-gov-northam-was-caught-advocating-infanticide-n967626
    Thanks for that. Back in the day I used to have, sometimes, to make neontal I/v feeds for very prem babies, and while obviously I wasn't part of the discussions around them, I was aware of them.
    One sticks in my mind; the grandchild of a friend. Really not sure either of the quality of his life or of his mother's, twenty years later.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    So let me understand, when my mother and I agreed with the doctor that my father, who had not recovered consciousness following a stroke, should not be kept alive, the doctor then went away and “executed” him... I fear there are no depths to which supporters of Trump will not go between now and November...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Get that Fizzy going! Apart from that marvellous Proustian moment when your nostrils fill with burnt Castrol, you'll be sticking it to the EU man via the medium of 2 stroke.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:
    Seems like basing your electoral chances on courting the hard Brexit vote is not a fantastic proposition for Ruth Davidson's No To a Second Referendum Party.
    Tories plus Brexit Party are on 27% in Scotland in that poll and the SNP are on 38%, the Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at the 2017 general election and the SNP 36.9% so even in Scotland the movement is almost all Tory to Brexit Party not Tory to SNP, and to a lesser extent Labour to CUK not Labour to SNP
    Yeah, 6 parties instead of 3 fighting over the same voters is a DISASTER for the SNP.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
    Tell that to some of those diving ****s on the football field.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    IDS?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Get that Fizzy going! Apart from that marvellous Proustian moment when your nostrils fill with burnt Castrol, you'll be sticking it to the EU man via the medium of 2 stroke.
    Found it! I knew I'd read about a Fizzy with an 80cc Metrakit conversions. 23bhp! LOL

    https://www.fastbikesmag.com/2013/11/27/super-special-yamaha-fs1-e/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    IDS?
    Baker is the one driven enough to burn his bridges
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,146
    edited April 2019
    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    IDS?
    No, IDS was campaigning with us yesterday for a Tory councillor
  • IanB2 said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    IDS?
    Baker is the one driven enough to burn his bridges
    it would be a welcome relief to see him leave the party. He could take Francois and Cash with him
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Given Conservative Home has 62% of Tory members voting Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections there would not be many activists left if CCHQ does that

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-three-out-of-five-party-members-will-vote-for-the-brexit-party-in-european-elections.html
    With Tories in open revolt, the Conservative Party board has issued a warning that anyone campaigning for the Brexit Party will be kicked out.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8955334/conservative-party-nigel-farage-brexit-threat/

    The Sun's twitter click-bait team changed "campaigning" to backing.

    Small earthquake stuff. More significant is this if it comes to anything: A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”
    If it’s a “high” profile defection it can’t be Francois for obvious reasons
    IDS?
    No, IDS was campaigning with us yesterday for a Tory councillor
    Peak non sequitur.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
    On the basis that the Tories arent going to wind up completely or lose the blue rosetted donkey vote that means a Labour win.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I feel my life is lacking purpose now that we're in the phony war stage of Brexit and I'm waiting for hostilities to recommence. I've just bought a non-running Mk.1 Range Rover on eBay out of pure boredom and I fucking hate RRs.

    We're having the same crisis. Mine will probably be a lot cheaper than yours as I bought a Yamaha FS1E that was in bits in a Chinese tea chest. I sold the tea chest to a hipster on ebay for not much less than I paid for the Fizz. It's still in bits.
    Get that Fizzy going! Apart from that marvellous Proustian moment when your nostrils fill with burnt Castrol, you'll be sticking it to the EU man via the medium of 2 stroke.
    Found it! I knew I'd read about a Fizzy with an 80cc Metrakit conversions. 23bhp! LOL

    https://www.fastbikesmag.com/2013/11/27/super-special-yamaha-fs1-e/
    That's a very cool bike.

    My first was a Malaguti Cavalcone trailie that I persuaded my poor old mum that it was ok to ride when I was 15, did more miles (10k) on that than any subsequent bike. Bit like your first sex, messy, smelly, noisy, over quickly, essentially unsatisfying, but you never forget it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    Brexit is a parasite. Leaving the host means death.

    Look at the Kipper defectors*. Where are they now?

    *It might be argued that they achieved their aim having won the referendum, but of course the ERG seem determined to prevent Brexit from actually happening.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You dont half come out with some crap.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Just watched Rebecca Long Bailey on the telly. She's still not a great spokesperson but she is improving. It might be one of the unintended consequences of the chaos in the Labour Party in 2015 onwards that some young politicians get off to a better start on their careers than otherwise might have been the case. Could be the next Labour landslide leader in the 2030s will have a good team around him/her.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You dont half come out with some crap.
    The complacency of some diehard Remainers is astounding
  • HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You are putting too much store in Farage and his Brexit party. He will do well in the EU elections due to the unique nature of the elections and as a protest vote against the delay in Brexit. However, I am interested where the 6 million votes to revoke are going to end up and I am less than convinced that much has changed in the deadlock in the UK.

    If the Brexit party does well it is up to the conservative party to seek a change at the top and conduct a proper succession election to provide a new impetus to both the narrative and the talks. It could well be Boris, but other candidates could emerge through the leadership campaign. For me it cannot come soon enough now. TM has done her best but in the next few weeks it will become obvious it is time for her to retire
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
    On the basis that the Tories arent going to wind up completely or lose the blue rosetted donkey vote that means a Labour win.
    Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.

    The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You are putting too much store in Farage and his Brexit party. He will do well in the EU elections due to the unique nature of the elections and as a protest vote against the delay in Brexit. However, I am interested where the 6 million votes to revoke are going to end up and I am less than convinced that much has changed in the deadlock in the UK.

    If the Brexit party does well it is up to the conservative party to seek a change at the top and conduct a proper succession election to provide a new impetus to both the narrative and the talks. It could well be Boris, but other candidates could emerge through the leadership campaign. For me it cannot come soon enough now. TM has done her best but in the next few weeks it will become obvious it is time for her to retire
    I agree Boris should take over but hopefully May gets her Deal through first
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Just to clarify, does that mean you think BP might receive 50% of all votes cast in a GE?
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You dont half come out with some crap.
    He does indeed

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,687
    edited April 2019
    This is the best argument against a flat Earth I’ve ever seen.


  • HYUFD said:

    If we have an election in 2019, then that new Parliament will want a new Speaker.

    And I see an election this year as still the likeliest way to break the Westminster log-jam.

    May will not budge until she can be forced out in December and will not go until she gets her Deal through and the Tories will not back a general election under May.

    So I cannot see a general election until next year at the earliest
    I could just about see a scenario where a customs union squeaks through on another "indicative vote" and May says "not on my watch" and calls an election.
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You dont half come out with some crap.
    The complacency of some diehard Remainers is astounding
    I doubt remainers are complacent but at times you do talk unmitigated rubbish to be fair
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
    On the basis that the Tories arent going to wind up completely or lose the blue rosetted donkey vote that means a Labour win.
    Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.

    The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
    You need to understand how the voting system would play out. Even if you are right - and as BigG says, BP success seems to be your latest fantasy - they are taking most of those votes from the Tories. Therefore will poll better in existing Tory seats - handing a lot of them to the opposition parties - and do a lot less well in opposition held seats and even then take most of their vote from the Tory challenger. That 28% vote would be a lot less efficiently spread than the current Tory vote.
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
    On the basis that the Tories arent going to wind up completely or lose the blue rosetted donkey vote that means a Labour win.
    Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.

    The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
    You seem to have become possessed with the crazy idea Farage could become PM, not so long ago it was Boris. What on earth are you and IDS talking about when you canvass together
  • O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?

    Aqtwtain.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You are putting too much store in Farage and his Brexit party. He will do well in the EU elections due to the unique nature of the elections and as a protest vote against the delay in Brexit. However, I am interested where the 6 million votes to revoke are going to end up and I am less than convinced that much has changed in the deadlock in the UK.

    If the Brexit party does well it is up to the conservative party to seek a change at the top and conduct a proper succession election to provide a new impetus to both the narrative and the talks. It could well be Boris, but other candidates could emerge through the leadership campaign. For me it cannot come soon enough now. TM has done her best but in the next few weeks it will become obvious it is time for her to retire
    I agree Boris should take over but hopefully May gets her Deal through first
    The person to take over must be the one who wins a proper succession election.

    It could be Boris but not should be
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Anyway, politics doesn't matter right now. We are about to lose a large chunk of the cast of Game of Thrones.

  • Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?

    I saw the original Ironman about 10 years ago and thought it was okish. The next one I saw had a talking badger and Vin Diesel playing a tree- a fine piece of casting. I've genuinely had no interest in seeing any of the others since, and find it a cringy when men of my own age are so immersed in that universe. The horrible thing is that it will all be rebooted in a few years time when the studios need some easy money.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.

    Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited April 2019

    HYUFD said:
    What about the 90% of respondents who said 'What the feck are you on about?'

    I’m seeing Endgame for the second time this afternoon. 👌
    Watched it for the first time yesterday lunchtime. Stunningly good film.

    Edit: Funnily enough the one character I was most keen to watch the story arc for was Hawkeye who is not even on that list.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?

    I saw the original Ironman about 10 years ago and thought it was okish. The next one I saw had a talking badger and Vin Diesel playing a tree- a fine piece of casting. I've genuinely had no interest in seeing any of the others since, and find it a cringy when men of my own age are so immersed in that universe. The horrible thing is that it will all be rebooted in a few years time when the studios need some easy money.
    I’ve not seen any of them, they simply hold no interest for me. I don’t begrudge others their pleasure, of course.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You are putting too much store in Farage and his Brexit party. He will do well in the EU elections due to the unique nature of the elections and as a protest vote against the delay in Brexit. However, I am interested where the 6 million votes to revoke are going to end up and I am less than convinced that much has changed in the deadlock in the UK.

    If the Brexit party does well it is up to the conservative party to seek a change at the top and conduct a proper succession election to provide a new impetus to both the narrative and the talks. It could well be Boris, but other candidates could emerge through the leadership campaign. For me it cannot come soon enough now. TM has done her best but in the next few weeks it will become obvious it is time for her to retire
    You seem to becoming reconciled to a potential Boris leadership? It's interesting as you used to say you'd leave the party if he won. Do you think this is a general shift in grass roots opinion?
  • Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?

    I've seen Endgame five times already, there's at least another ten MCU films in the pipeline in the next 4 years.

    Plus PLUS PLUS, with the Disney/Fox merger for the first time ever all the Marvel properties are owned by Marvel films which means we're going to get the X Men, the Fantastic Four, and Deadpool in the same film universe as the rest of the MCU.

    That's geek heaven.
  • O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.

    I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.

    WHY? WHY?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Just to be clear, does all this fuss about Endgame mean that there might be some big films in the near future that aren’t about kids’ cartoon characters?

    I've seen Endgame five times already, there's at least another ten MCU films in the pipeline in the next 4 years.

    Plus PLUS PLUS, with the Disney/Fox merger for the first time ever all the Marvel properties are owned by Marvel films which means we're going to get the X Men, the Fantastic Four, and Deadpool in the same film universe as the rest of the MCU.

    That's geek heaven.
    The geek shall inherit the Earth.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:
    Seems like basing your electoral chances on courting the hard Brexit vote is not a fantastic proposition for Ruth Davidson's No To a Second Referendum Party.
    Tories plus Brexit Party are on 27% in Scotland in that poll and the SNP are on 38%, the Tories got 28.6% in Scotland at the 2017 general election and the SNP 36.9% so even in Scotland the movement is almost all Tory to Brexit Party not Tory to SNP, and to a lesser extent Labour to CUK not Labour to SNP
    The poll may be a bit misleading in that the Brexit and CUK options are unlikely to have been offered to respondents in earlier polls.
  • HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    You are putting too much store in Farage and his Brexit party. He will do well in the EU elections due to the unique nature of the elections and as a protest vote against the delay in Brexit. However, I am interested where the 6 million votes to revoke are going to end up and I am less than convinced that much has changed in the deadlock in the UK.

    If the Brexit party does well it is up to the conservative party to seek a change at the top and conduct a proper succession election to provide a new impetus to both the narrative and the talks. It could well be Boris, but other candidates could emerge through the leadership campaign. For me it cannot come soon enough now. TM has done her best but in the next few weeks it will become obvious it is time for her to retire
    You seem to becoming reconciled to a potential Boris leadership? It's interesting as you used to say you'd leave the party if he won. Do you think this is a general shift in grass roots opinion?
    Not sure Nick

    As I commented yesterday the move to the Brexit party coinciding with Boris campaigning across the Midlands for the party does indicate that my shift in the perception that Boris could emerge as TM successor is based on my pragmatic and instinctive nature.

    It is not that I endorse Boris but TM cannot go on like this and an election for her successor is coming. My hopes for that election is that a good number of candidates will stand, process through the hustings, and be voted in eventually by the membership. If in that process Boris emerges a clear winner I believe the party will accept him, but I rather hope someone else will emerge though the process that captures the party and countries imagination

    I am keeping an open mind
  • Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792
  • Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    It most certainly is and here are labour heading
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Just to clarify, does that mean you think BP might receive 50% of all votes cast in a GE?
    Even 35 to 40% could give a Brexit Party majority under FPTP
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    You could prove that to me and I still wouldn't believe it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
    Drax was the only Bond villain named after a power station.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories must deliver Brexit, the future relationship can be decided at a later stage

    The Tories can't deliver Brexit.

    They are irreconciably split between the purists and the pragmatists. Labour are not coming to their rescue.

    The only escape is Opposition - but that entails handing the country over to Corbyn.

    Eventually the current impasse will break. Eventually. But politics is staying irrational for a lot longer than I have patience for.
    A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it.

    If Corbyn is then forced to take a Remain line by his party we would then be faced at the next general election by a choice of Farage PM and Brexit or Corbyn PM and no Brexit.

    I still think though if the Brexit Party wins the European elections the WA will pass ultimately by October albeit with a CU in the PD, Boris will then take over as Tory leader by the New Year. Corbyn knows most Labour seats and Tory marginals voted Leave and does not want Labour to become the pure party of Remain unless forced
    On the basis that the Tories arent going to wind up completely or lose the blue rosetted donkey vote that means a Labour win.
    Not necessarily, it could mean Farage becomes PM.

    The Brexit Party is already neck and neck with Labour in the Europeans, that could translate to a general election if we are still in the EU then
    You need to understand how the voting system would play out. Even if you are right - and as BigG says, BP success seems to be your latest fantasy - they are taking most of those votes from the Tories. Therefore will poll better in existing Tory seats - handing a lot of them to the opposition parties - and do a lot less well in opposition held seats and even then take most of their vote from the Tory challenger. That 28% vote would be a lot less efficiently spread than the current Tory vote.
    A majority even of Labour seats voted Leave, if we are still in the EU by the next general election Brexit will dominate
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Hyufd

    'A majority of Tories are Brexiteers though and will defect to the Brexit Party if need be to ensure it'

    I doubt anywhere near a majority would defect to the Brexit party and even then, the Brexit party will not win an election and will not have sufficient support to achieve their no deal objective

    If we are still in the EU by the next general election you could well see an SNP 2015 surge to the Brexit Party given 2/3 of constituencies voted Leave.

    Just to clarify, does that mean you think BP might receive 50% of all votes cast in a GE?
    Even 35 to 40% could give a Brexit Party majority under FPTP
    The Brexit party will not succeed in a GE for reasons already explained to you

    You are becoming possessed by them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,168

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    As I was saying...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
    Drax was the only Bond villain named after a power station.
    Nuclear? Tut-tut - coal and bio-mass....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide :)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    They’ll be fifth or sixth before long.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    As I was saying...
    HYUFD = closet Brexit Party fan!
  • Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    It could still happen but what we are witnessing is a revolt against Brexit not happening and, if confirmed, should see TM resign and a new leadership contest take place
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    Great score for both the Tiggers and the Greens.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meantime, it is remarkable that Trump can find time to golf three times a week, but is happy to break a tradition going back to Truman.

    He cheats at golf. People who have played with him report many tales along the lines of -

    "He sliced it off the tee, there was water right, a big lake, and we saw and heard it splash right in the middle, but incredibly when we got up there his caddie found his ball dry and lying perfectly. Truly miraculous stroke of fortune! Seemed to defy the laws of physics."

    This sounds trivial but it is not. It speaks to character. If you doubt the relevance and importance of such behaviour consider this - the last person to cheat as outrageously and shamelessly as Trump on the golf course was Auric Goldfinger, and he was rotten to the core.
    Drax cheated at cards, so Jame Bond knew right away that he was a villain.

    As it happens, cheating at any game is a criminal offence if money is involved.
    Drax was the only Bond villain named after a power station.
    Nuclear? Tut-tut - coal and bio-mass....
    The power of the edit function saved my blushes :)
  • HYUFD said:

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    As I was saying...
    Interpreting a protest vote to a party of government is not one of your best assumptions
  • HYUFD said:

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    As I was saying...
    HYUFD = closet Brexit Party fan!
    He seems to be caught up in the hysteria when calmer minds are needed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Mays 3 year long quest to keep the Parliamentary Party together has been overwhelmingly successful.
    Trouble is, they've very few voters left.
    Chapeau
  • Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    Great score for both the Tiggers and the Greens.
    The figures seem to indicate the Country is still virtually equally divided
  • O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.

    Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
    Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    They’ll be fifth or sixth before long.
    Well they'd only need to drop another 4 points, and for that loss to go evenly to the Greens and the Tiggers, and they'd be there.

    They could become an old English tradition that nobody really understands and very few take part in, like Morris dancing.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I believe that Broadcasting restrictions re-coverage of the Brexit party and CHUK my be about to kick in. How much difference will that make - particularly as neither willl feature much in post-Local Election commentary and analysis this week?
  • O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.

    Come on, allow some of us at least 24 hours as Canaries.
    Congrats & welcome back to the PL - good to have you back.
    My congratulations as well.
  • O/T - All sound people are Foxes today.

    I'm so disappointed in you lot, you lost to the anti-semites yesterday.

    WHY? WHY?
    Tell me - it's always their cup final - I was listening to a staff member at our ground detailing all the things they'd taken down in the areas the away fans get to due to the previous 'imaginative' ways they've found to get weapons and otherwise vandalise...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    Looks like the Tories are getting close to polling sub 10%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1122445707921825792

    Interesting thought that if either the Lib Dems or Change UK could have established itself as the flag bearer for the centre they might have outpolled the Tories. To see the Tories in fourth place would have been something.
    Great score for both the Tiggers and the Greens.
    Yes, add in the Lib Dems and the three of them combined are almost polling as well as Farage
  • justin124 said:

    I believe that Broadcasting restrictions re-coverage of the Brexit party and CHUK my be about to kick in. How much difference will that make - particularly as neither willl feature much in post-Local Election commentary and analysis this week?

    I think that may well be wishful thinking.

    I very much doubt that Brexit will not be part of the local election result analysis
This discussion has been closed.