Brexit Deal plus CU remains the likeliest outcome, it will infuriate Tory hardline Leavers wanting No Deal and many of them will vote Brexit Party or UKIP in the European Parliament elections and it will infuriate Labour hardline Remainers wanting EUref2 many of whom will vote CUK, LD or Green in the European Parliament elections but it will be acceptable to the median voter I think
Problem with the median voter idea is that the distribution of political preferences over Brexit possibilities is bimodal and the middle ground is sparsely occupied. Though the median still matters for majority votes, it is likely to be highly unstable.
Does he actually believe what he wrote? I doubt it very much.
Adonis? Obviously not.
The whole thing is a complete own goal for Labour with Remainers though. They thought having a prominent Remain campaigner as a candidate would help them, but instead they've Ratnered themselves by forcing him to toe the line.
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Based on the polls as they are now, and remembering that Texas and California are right at the start of the Primary season this time around. (And assuming there's an effective 5% cutoff for candidates), you get post Super Tuesday candidate shares of roughly:
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Brexit Deal plus CU remains the likeliest outcome, it will infuriate Tory hardline Leavers wanting No Deal and many of them will vote Brexit Party or UKIP in the European Parliament elections and it will infuriate Labour hardline Remainers wanting EUref2 many of whom will vote CUK, LD or Green in the European Parliament elections but it will be acceptable to the median voter I think
Problem with the median voter idea is that the distribution of political preferences over Brexit possibilities is bimodal and the middle ground is sparsely occupied. Though the median still matters for majority votes, it is likely to be highly unstable.
Maybe but it reflects the fact Leave won but only narrowly
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Based on the polls as they are now, and remembering that Texas and California are right at the start of the Primary season this time around. (And assuming there's an effective 5% cutoff for candidates), you get post Super Tuesday candidate shares of roughly:
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Sanders ahead in the latest California primary poll there, Biden in the previous one.
Harris nowhere in her home state it seems
Harris is on 27%, one point behind first in those polls.
So you think Biden will be on ~0% in California ?
Nope, I extrapolated as I said at the bottom. If you assume that the 27% for Harris is right. Scale everyone up for eliminating the bottom 10% of candidates, and then assume that Biden gets 20% of the non-Harris total (which is similar to how he scores of the non-O'Rourke number).
Basically, I guessed, but they're reasonable guesses.
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Sanders ahead in the latest California primary poll there, Biden in the previous one.
Harris nowhere in her home state it seems
Harris is on 27%, one point behind first in those polls.
So you think Biden will be on ~0% in California ?
Nope, I extrapolated as I said at the bottom. If you assume that the 27% for Harris is right. Scale everyone up for eliminating the bottom 10% of candidates, and then assume that Biden gets 20% of the non-Harris total (which is similar to how he scores of the non-O'Rourke number).
Basically, I guessed, but they're reasonable guesses.
No, take a look again. One poll was clearly run without Biden running and the other with. The fieldwork dates, likely voter and research company are the same...
Now, given we know Biden is running, which should be most accurate ?
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Sanders ahead in the latest California primary poll there, Biden in the previous one.
Harris nowhere in her home state it seems
Harris is on 27%, one point behind first in those polls.
So you think Biden will be on ~0% in California ?
Nope, I extrapolated as I said at the bottom. If you assume that the 27% for Harris is right. Scale everyone up for eliminating the bottom 10% of candidates, and then assume that Biden gets 20% of the non-Harris total (which is similar to how he scores of the non-O'Rourke number).
Basically, I guessed, but they're reasonable guesses.
No, take a look again. One poll was clearly run without Biden running and the other with. The fieldwork dates, likely voter and research company are the same...
Now, given we know Biden is running, which should be most accurate ?
Yes, as Giuliani found out in 2008 leading in national polls is not great if you trail in Iowa and New Hampshire, he lost the former to Huckabee and the latter to McCain (the eventual GOP nominee) and never recovered. Thus I would say Sanders leading in New Hampshire and tied for the lead with Biden in New Hampshire gives Sanders the advantage at this stage
Sanders ahead in the latest California primary poll there, Biden in the previous one.
Harris nowhere in her home state it seems
Harris is on 27%, one point behind first in those polls.
So you think Biden will be on ~0% in California ?
Nope, I extrapolated as I said at the bottom. If you assume that the 27% for Harris is right. Scale everyone up for eliminating the bottom 10% of candidates, and then assume that Biden gets 20% of the non-Harris total (which is similar to how he scores of the non-O'Rourke number).
Basically, I guessed, but they're reasonable guesses.
No, take a look again. One poll was clearly run without Biden running and the other with. The fieldwork dates, likely voter and research company are the same...
Now, given we know Biden is running, which should be most accurate ?
Oops.
Well that means that Harris loses two points, while Biden picks up one.
Dumb question, are the EU elections now absolutely definitely happening?
They are definitely happening until they are not.
Presumably May has to make *some* sort of insane effort to get the withdrawal agreement passed before then, even if it has no chance of succeeding, even if it involves a buy one get one free deal on owls AND unicorns, rather than just sighing, accepting the lot and preparing for the elections.
I just listened to the podcast... she slags off child porn and says its illegal, vile etc, but seems to think nothing should be censored on the internet inc jihadi videos... I don’t really get her point to be honest
Dumb question, are the EU elections now absolutely definitely happening?
They are definitely happening until they are not.
How do returning officers go about recruiting the staff to run the polling stations? We are less than a month away. My partner, who is doing the locals, has been asked to provisionally book a day off for the Euros, on the chance they may happen. She is self-employed, and, by coincidence, has Thursday as her regular free day. How are others managing? Bear in mind they need to be verified and trained, so you can't just rustle up a few temps. Minor point, in the scheme of things, I guess...
Dumb question, are the EU elections now absolutely definitely happening?
They are definitely happening until they are not.
How do returning officers go about recruiting the staff to run the polling stations? We are less than a month away. My partner, who is doing the locals, has been asked to provisionally book a day off for the Euros, on the chance they may happen. She is self-employed, and, by coincidence, has Thursday as her regular free day. How are others managing? Bear in mind they need to be verified and trained, so you can't just rustle up a few temps. Minor point, in the scheme of things, I guess...
Expect a big announcement on Crossrail later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Main Board meeting right now.
It will still carry a lot of risk in it (opening date) before anyone asks.
My flat is two minutes walk from Tottenham Court Road tube station, so I'm super keen on it opening asap.
Don't hold your breath!
What have you done with my Crossrail, CR???
[another SNAFU on the Central line right now]
It's hard. Really hard.
Most of the Executives who set up the supply chain and governance structures ten years ago that led to the problems with systems integration in 2017/2018 bailed out years ago. They've got off scot-free. The ones who were there last year - when the music stopped - have taken all the blame.
There are a few others who haven't put their public reputations first and who do most of the hard work. They've stuck around out of a sense of duty to, and passion for, the Crossrail Project and are continuing to do everything they can to get the Project over the line despite all the obstacles. They've been working hard and diligently throughout, and with little thanks.
One lesson I've learnt is that it turns out that cuts no ice. The ones who bailed were the savvy ones. If you are still there on Day One after a disastrous announcement you still absorb opprobrium and blame regardless of your position or efforts, and are believed to be culpable.
But, hey-ho - it's still the right thing to do: I couldn't live with myself if I'd quit, and I won't. Not until it opens.
If it's any consolation, I love reading about the history of engineering (especially civil engineering) and vast numbers of projects have gone over budget and been delivered late - yet those timing and budget failures are only a footnote in history as we continue using the infrastructure created a century or two later.
There's a bigger picture.
Or of couse it could founder on a mess of incompatible systems, like the NHS computer system...
Or a bridge across the Thames, or a few water cannon trucks...
Boris cancelled the Thames Gateway Bridge, in east London.
Met are reputedly investigating the missing £30 odd million at the request of a Westminster Committee who Boris tried to take the resultant of micturation out of...
Comments
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1121468428236226560
https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1121510348845191168
The whole thing is a complete own goal for Labour with Remainers though. They thought having a prominent Remain campaigner as a candidate would help them, but instead they've Ratnered themselves by forcing him to toe the line.
Does he have the staying power?
Biden 22%*
Sanders 22%
O'Rourke 18%
Harris 16%
Buttigieg 12%
Warren 7%
(Remember, taking out the bottom candidates scales everyone up a bit. And TX and CA have outsized impacts.)
Everyone else essentially fails to make the cut. O'Rourke does well because he scores 33% in Texas and 16% in California.
* Biden isn't prompted for in the CA and TX polls, so I had to guesstimate him.
Harris nowhere in her home state it seems
I’m not irate about Brexit. It’s too disastrous to waste that kind of energy on it.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1121304558544850945
https://twitter.com/nedsimons/status/1121369867729481729?s=20
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6960109/Tommy-Robinson-announces-stand-MEP-European-elections.html
https://order-order.com/2019/04/25/labour-member-suspended-jewish-donors-remark-now-labour-spokesman/
Basically, I guessed, but they're reasonable guesses.
Now, given we know Biden is running, which should be most accurate ?
We are less than a month away. My partner, who is doing the locals, has been asked to provisionally book a day off for the Euros, on the chance they may happen. She is self-employed, and, by coincidence, has Thursday as her regular free day. How are others managing?
Bear in mind they need to be verified and trained, so you can't just rustle up a few temps.
Minor point, in the scheme of things, I guess...