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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ChangeUK is learning the hard way that there’s more to running a political party than just getting a few MP defectors
The widely reported problems it is having with its selection of some candidates for the European elections together with the difficulty getting a logo registered are just indications of the teething trouble that ChangeUK is having in its attempt to establish itself as a new political force.
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"while 80% of Leavers are open to having a Remainer acquaintance, only 70% of Remainers feel the same way[sic]";
Here's a good habit: put the numbers in a table:
-----------%age approve---%age disapprove
Leavers 80% 20%
Remainers 70% 30%
----------------------------------------
Goodwin uses this and other similar figures to state that Remainers are more intolerant than Leavers. Fair interpretation (although begging the question!). But here's my point: how much more?
Is it
* 10% more intolerant (30% minus 20%)
* 12% more intolerant (1 minus 70%/80%)
* 50% more intolerant (30%/20% minus 1)
* 66% as tolerant (20%/30%)
* 87.5% as tolerant (70%/80%)
The point I'm trying to make is twofold, thus:
* Goodwin did not give a definition of intolerance that could be measured numerically. You don't have to put things into numbers to put them in order (Olympic medals being a famous example) but if you want to say how much more, it's important.
* Goodwin did not include a threshold: how much intolerance is acceptable and how much not.
These two points - provide a numeric definition of the metric, then provide a threshold - are important if you wish to assess data, and it's amazing how bloody often they are neglected.
OK, rant over, Say goodnight, viewcode...
CUK will end up as a footnote in Labour's internal strife. The three Tory MPs who joined won't even merit that.
I'm starting to think Chuka is their only semi reliable media performer, which is a problem as he also comes across as fake and is dislikable*...
*Maybe some bias on my part for that one.
The significant number in the Euro elections for political purposes is the total of remain and leave votes, rather than that of elected MEPs.
The total of LD, CHUK and Green, can be counted as clear and obvious remain votes. Labour is remainer-ish in terms of its voters (and leaver-ish in terms of its leader), so hard to know how precisely to count its Euro election vote.
The Tories are far more a party of leave than Labour are of remain - and the other two clearly parties of Leave and little else.
I can see why that might make him "dislikable"!
How many seats did she fight & lose ? Three GEs on the trot.
It won’t save Heidi either. She’s doomed.
Some of their mistakes have been very basic though. They need a sense of energy at least. Where is it?
But @TheJezziah was trying to say that she was crap at media on the basis of someone's editing, and that Chuka was better, both of which are bollocks.
*Sort of like Macron/En Marche but without all the preparation work and just the exciting part where you beat the old parties and win.
I don't like him but look at Farage, there is a gulf there.
In regards to Chuka I do think he is quite 'smooth' with the meda, can possibly come across as fake and a as a bit of an ego but I always felt he handles them fairly well. I actually like Allen more and she can come across a bit warmer but just not quite the same level with the media.
Maybe it is just me that thinks that though...
As a Centrist, former member of New Labour who supported the SDP in the eighties, I should be their target demographic, but I am quite disappointed. I quite like several of them as individuals, and know little about the others, but the only thing that they seem to agree on is being anti Brexit. There is already a great boredom about that as an issue, and several other anti Brexit parties.
Not that they haven't been planning, according to interviews there was some work done for a while.
But let's say they were rushed out because of events without time to plan. Then they should know that is the case and plan their strategy and tactics appropriately. My criticism wasn't just purely related to a lack of preparation but expecting the success without the preparation.
If they had realistically assessed they were in a bad place and unprepared because of events then they shouldn't have strategised as if they were like Macron about to seize the throne.
Wet, dreary, all a bit bland. Still, things should improve in a little while.
They didn’t come home on February 17th, & find smouldering embers where their house once had stood. They didn’t have to rush off with a few things saved from the fire to build a new party the next day.
These fires have been a long, long time in the burning.
Guy Verhofstadt had it right. Remainers have been just as clueless as the Leavers. And the TIGgers have been worst of all.
Clueless, cretinous, lacking in any sense of purpose, needlessly antagonising the LibDems, they represent the worst kind of smug self-satisfied Remainer.
I see no evidence for your assertion that they thought they were about to seize the throne. That sounds like a standard hard left line to take and a pretty implausible one at that.
As it happens, they have achieved a fair bit already, simply by changing the dynamics of the debate over Brexit and the dynamics within the Labour party. If they do nothing more they will have done more than most MPs.
I guess for some of them it's not a great fit, though.
The leaked one which mentions impaticular the Lib Dems?
Arrogant fools.
If it was just desperation to escape as others have mentioned the Lib Dems were there but according to them (not even the leaked document) the Lib Dems are 'tarnished'.
Which all leads me to the conclusion that they are incompetent or actually expected Macron style success Which would involve an election, I was using a turn of phrase with 'seize the throne'. No overthrowing of the monarchy was meant to be implied.
They didn't have to make it so certain though!
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1121065057247465472?s=19
A comment or two from, say, a senior LibDems in Heidi Allen's seat might be illuminating. It appears that their candidate from 2017 is planning to fight the seat again in.... whenever!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/25/no-soft-brexit-no-deal-revoke-vote
- The name is utterly ridiculous. It would be bad enough being TIG or TIGGERS. That's being polite. It's f-ing useless. They must have suss that at one of their gatherings and thought Change UK would be better. It isn't much. But instead of choosing one over the other they bolted it on. And threw in NP for good measure. So we've got some sort of combination of CHUCK UP (ok that's me being naughty) CHUK NP TIG
- The branding is goddam hopeless. I mean the worst I have ever seen at any launch ever in history. Just crassly appallingly awful
- The logo was rejected (leading to some terrible lampooning by right-winger Guido Fawkes) and was terrible
- No slogan to fit what they stand for
Then there is the lack of policy agreement, selection mistakes and lack of vetting, lack of one clear decisive leader and, to cap it all, the vicious, nasty and underhand, snide attack on the Liberal Democrats which shows they're exactly what they claim to be opposing ... it goes on and on.
Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
WRT the header, I'm not sure that's a good strategy from the Lib Dems and Greens. Voters aren't chess pieces.
It’s almost as if Chuka thought he could be the next Obama or Macron - but by default, without having to do any work.
I think the scorn for TIG is being a bit overdone - they clearly aren't finding it easy, but they're successfully staying in the news and getting 4-9% in the polls. I wish they weren't as I think they're a dangerous distraction which may damage any of the other parties (probably the LibDems most, ironically since they have no ex-LibDem MPs) in ways we can't predict without actually winning any seats, but I wouldn't write them off yet.
Also my thoughts regarding the name are following other parties it is something basic and gives you an idea about their politics.
Labour, Conservatives, Green, UKIP, SNP, DUP, Brexit party, UUP, SDLP with just a basic understanding of British politics you understand their politics from their name. I assume you could make a fairly good guess at Sinn Fein as well with a tiny amount of knowledge of N. Ireland and Plaid Cymru just needs an intelligent guess (and maybe seeing Cymru wrote instead of Wales somewhere) Liberal Democrats has Liberal in the name which gives perhaps some indication.
Change UK - The Independent Group or whatever combination you use tells you nothing unless you specifically know about them already.
I thought it must be another Trekkie
https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Sargon
Mr. Sandpit, I might go back and enjoy the 2011 Canadian Grand Prix. Or the 2016 Spanish race.
the government has actually done something sensible
Personally I wouldn't be friends with homophobes and racists, for instance, and while not all Leavers are homophobes and racists most homophobes and racists are Leavers. If this makes me urban and middle class then sorry, I am too busy eating my avocado toast to give a fuck.
Thst may not have been the best approach but I think it a bit unkind to suggest it was easier to ho down this route. It strikes me as, meaning no offence, what party spokesmen would say, like the accusation of them being csreerist.
There are good and bad people on either side.
There are horrid people on the Leave side, but they exist on your side of the argument, too.
each to his own of course, but the underlying assumption that the other side want to make out with intolerant prigs might be talking selfrighteous smugness a step too far,
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
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Bravely said, but imagine if your past was not communist, but Catholic, and you had therefore expressed mainstream 20th century Catholic views on homosexuality? That they are sinners destined to burn in hell? That wouldn't look so good now and you might have to resign, it's a lottery, essentially
---------
I think that's another good example (and interesting that being a former orthodox Catholic is seen as more embarrassing than being a former Communist). I think that in that case opinion has moved so far that "defend it" is not a viable option, but I'd probably be OK with an MP who said they used to think that as a regular churchgoer but they've realised it was quite wrong.
But you do need to decide what your view is and stick up for it. Tim Farron's public agonising over whether being gay was a sin just exasperated everyone. As he now recognises, it'd have been less bad to say "I know most of my colleagues think it's odd, but my religious belief tells me this and I'm very committed to my religion." I think that would have led to his removal as LD leader but he'd have retained more respect.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/42638420
As Alastair points out, while Change UK are improvising as they go along, and not making a very good job of competing for electoral votes, they have nonetheless had a significant effect on politics. I don't think many will disagree that going to war with the LibDems is pointless and counterproductive.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-remainers-more-bothered-by-differing-views-in-family-poll-shows-h6kh2vrp7
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1121298098041622529?s=20