I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. The point I am making is that people may feel like they don't want to be friends with some of the kind of people who voted leave, and I can sympathise with that. Look at the big pro- my avocado toast to give a fuck.
Would you say that rejoicing at the deaths of older voters since 2016 is the sign of being a nice person?
There are horrid people on the Leave side, but they exist on your side of the argument, too.
Sounds like Remainers have a problem associating with Leavers, but not the reverse.
It’s the difference between being a senior manager in a large company and the owner of a start-up. They’re not the same job at all.
Some of their mistakes have been very basic though. They need a sense of energy at least. Where is it?
I agree with this. It has been an exercise in how NOT to launch a party. What surprises me is how many school child errors they have committed.
- The name is utterly ridiculous. It would be bad enough being TIG or TIGGERS. That's being polite. It's f-ing useless. They must have suss that at one of their gatherings and thought Change UK would be better. It isn't much. But instead of choosing one over the other they bolted it on. And threw in NP for good measure. So we've got some sort of combination of CHUCK UP (ok that's me being naughty) CHUK NP TIG
- The branding is goddam hopeless. I mean the worst I have ever seen at any launch ever in history. Just crassly appallingly awful
- The logo was rejected (leading to some terrible lampooning by right-winger Guido Fawkes) and was terrible
- No slogan to fit what they stand for
Then there is the lack of policy agreement, selection mistakes and lack of vetting, lack of one clear decisive leader and, to cap it all, the vicious, nasty and underhand, snide attack on the Liberal Democrats which shows they're exactly what they claim to be opposing ... it goes on and on.
Watching from the outside, it’s hilarious, but must be immensely frustrating for those on the inside, that the leaders of the movement don’t appear to have a clue what they’re doing.
It’s almost as if Chuka thought he could be the next Obama or Macron - but by default, without having to do any work.
FPT from Axiomatic last thread (I'd said that people should admit their past views without apology, and either regret them, defend them or simply calmly explain they'd moved on, giving my Communist past as an example)::
--------
Bravely said, but imagine if your past was not communist, but Catholic, and you had therefore expressed mainstream 20th century Catholic views on homosexuality? That they are sinners destined to burn in hell? That wouldn't look so good now and you might have to resign, it's a lottery, essentially ---------
I think that's another good example (and interesting that being a former orthodox Catholic is seen as more embarrassing than being a former Communist). I think that in that case opinion has moved so far that "defend it" is not a viable option, but I'd probably be OK with an MP who said they used to think that as a regular churchgoer but they've realised it was quite wrong.
But you do need to decide what your view is and stick up for it. Tim Farron's public agonising over whether being gay was a sin just exasperated everyone. As he now recognises, it'd have been less bad to say "I know most of my colleagues think it's odd, but my religious belief tells me this and I'm very committed to my religion." I think that would have led to his removal as LD leader but he'd have retained more respect.
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Guy Verhofstadt had it right. Remainers have been just as clueless as the Leavers. And the TIGgers have been worst of all.
Clueless, cretinous, lacking in any sense of purpose, needlessly antagonising the LibDems, they represent the worst kind of smug self-satisfied Remainer.
There's a new name for your grouping, Heidi - The Worst Kind of Smug Self-satisfied Remainer Alliance.....
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. The point I am making is that people may feel like they don't want to be friends with some of the kind of people who voted leave, and I can sympathise with that. Look at the big pro-Remain march in London, which was totally peaceful and good humoured, would there be any objective reason not to be friends with any of those people? Contrast with some of the people protesting for Leave, and the way they have harassed MPs. A Leaver killed an MP. There have been multiple death threats. Would you want these people as your friend? Is it not revealing that the violence and threats have all been on one side? Personally I wouldn't be friends with homophobes and racists, for instance, and while not all Leavers are homophobes and racists most homophobes and racists are Leavers. If this makes me urban and middle class then sorry, I am too busy eating my avocado toast to give a fuck.
lol
each to his own of course, but the underlying assumption that the other side want to make out with intolerant prigs might be talking selfrighteous smugness a step too far,
I don't think it makes me intolerant to not want to be friends with people who hate my other friends for loving each other or want to deport my wife. I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life.
I don't think it makes me intolerant to not want to be friends with people who hate my other friends for loving each other or want to deport my wife. I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life.
FPT--the idea that, after three years of Brexit, Scotland will vote to go through that all over again with independence (which would be all the issues of Brexit on steroids) seems for the birds to me. Desire for full membership of the EU is very unlikely to overrule all of those concerns, despite how passionately some might feel about it.
I’ve been saying this for a long time. Brexit has made it clear just how difficult and damaging leaving a larger economic and political union is. It will be a real issue for the Scottish Nationalists in any future referendum.
'One of the remarkeable, yet unremarked, good things that happened yesterday was that the PM, leader of the DUP, and LOTO all attended a memorial service for an out Lesbian Catholic. Even Ulster is beginning to move with the times.'
The service was an inspiration as the priest put all the politicians on the naughty step with the congregation rising as one in unity applauding the priest demands the politicians used the tragic death of this young journalist as a catalyst for good.
It took some moments for the politicians to rise to join the applause and their embarrassment was there on full display
It struck me that the media should put that moment in time on repeat every hour on the hour to knock sense into all our idiotic warring politicians
FPT--the idea that, after three years of Brexit, Scotland will vote to go through that all over again with independence (which would be all the issues of Brexit on steroids) seems for the birds to me. Desire for full membership of the EU is very unlikely to overrule all of those concerns, despite how passionately some might feel about it.
I’ve been saying this for a long time. Brexit has made it clear just how difficult and damaging leaving a larger economic and political union is. It will be a real issue for the Scottish Nationalists in any future referendum.
Some will think it is still worth it... same with Brexit.
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
Although I agree with the lead that ‘MoreoftheSame UK’ appears to be running into the sand, I am not sure given the time available and the numbers and logistics involved in standing for the local elections that this would ever have been a realistic prospect, even had they decided to do so. I also think David Owen had a point in suggesting that local elections are a distraction from what should be their primary purpose of bringing about political change at Wesminster.
Their real problem is that they are not focusing on the latter, having volunteered for a futile head-to-head with the LibDems as to who is the party of Remain, having displayed precious little inclination to abandon the worst habits of Westminster, and by passing up the chance to head its Euro lists with genuinely new fresh candidates, instead opting to prioritise political has-beens and B list celebrities.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. The point I am making is that people may feel like they don't want to be friends with some of the kind of people who voted leave, and I can sympathise with that. Look at the big pro-Remain march in London, which was totally peaceful and good humoured, would there be any objective reason not to be friends with any of those people? Contrast with some of the people protesting for Leave, and the way they have harassed MPs. A Leaver killed an MP. There have been multiple death threats. Would you want these people as your friend? Is it not revealing that the violence and threats have all been on one side? Personally I wouldn't be friends with homophobes and racists, for instance, and while not all Leavers are homophobes and racists most homophobes and racists are Leavers. If this makes me urban and middle class then sorry, I am too busy eating my avocado toast to give a fuck.
Nick, why are you struggling with the logic of OLB statement. Surely it is logical. Although the vast majority of Leavers will be decent people, because they want to leave the EU that will attract the vocal nasty extreme right wingers, which then gives an unfair perception. It is what happens. It is not the fault of the Leavers, but that nasty minority tarnishes the less vocal majority.
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. The point I am making is that people may feel like they don't want to be friends with some of the kind of people who voted leave, and I can sympathise with that. Look at the big pro-Remain march in London, which was totally peaceful and good humoured, would there be any objective reason not to be friends with any of those people? Contrast with some of the people protesting for Leave, and the way they have harassed MPs. A Leaver killed an MP. There have been multiple death threats. Would you want these people as your friend? Is it not revealing that the violence and threats have all been on one side? Personally I wouldn't be friends with homophobes and racists, for instance, and while not all Leavers are homophobes and racists most homophobes and racists are Leavers. If this makes me urban and middle class then sorry, I am too busy eating my avocado toast to give a fuck.
Nick, why are you struggling with the logic of OLB statement. Surely it is logical. Although the vast majority of Leavers will be decent people, because they want to leave the EU that will attract the vocal nasty extreme right wingers, which then gives an unfair perception. It is what happens. It is not the fault of the Leavers, but that nasty minority tarnishes the less vocal majority.
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
'One of the remarkeable, yet unremarked, good things that happened yesterday was that the PM, leader of the DUP, and LOTO all attended a memorial service for an out Lesbian Catholic. Even Ulster is beginning to move with the times.'
The service was an inspiration as the priest put all the politicians on the naughty step with the congregation rising as one in unity applauding the priest demands the politicians used the tragic death of this young journalist as a catalyst for good.
It took some moments for the politicians to rise to join the applause and their embarrassment was there on full display
It struck me that the media should put that moment in time on repeat every hour on the hour to knock sense into all our idiotic warring politicians
And 99% of the congregation will vote them back in.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
The Sun have certainly got it right with May as Thanos, disintegrating half of all Tories across the universe when she activated the Brexit-delay-to-Infinity Gauntlet......
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
In the last election they voted in vast numbers for parties that said they'd respect the result.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I amin.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. The point I am making is that people may feel like they don't want to be friends with some of the kind of people who voted leave, and I can sympathise with that. Look at the big pro-Remain march in London, which was totally peaceful and good humoured, would there be any objective reason not to be friends with any of those people? Contrast with some of the people protesting for Leave, and the way they have harassed MPs. A Leaver killed an MP. There have been multiple death threats. Would you want these people as your friend? Is it not revealing that the violence and threats have all been on one side? Personally I wouldn't be friends with homophobes and racists, for instance, and while not all Leavers are homophobes and racists most homophobes and racists are Leavers. If this makes me urban and middle class then sorry, I am too busy eating my avocado toast to give a fuck.
Nick, why are you struggling with the logic of OLB statement. Surely it is logical. Although the vast majority of Leavers will be decent people, because they want to leave the EU that will attract the vocal nasty extreme right wingers, which then gives an unfair perception. It is what happens. It is not the fault of the Leavers, but that nasty minority tarnishes the less vocal majority.
It's logical enough if you believe that you are righteous, and those who disagree with you are evil.
Incidentally, a factor in CUK's creation that hasn't been mentioned is that a lot of the Labour participants had had VONCs in their local parties. I think if they'd stood and fought they'd have mostly hung on, because the VONCs were usually from just the activist members, but clearly it's easier to defect if your party has just said they don't like you. Nick Boles has had the same on the Tory side, and there was an abortive attempt at it against Anna Soubry.
I think that has not been mentioned a lot for good reason. While a factor it certainly in not easy for someone to quit their party ofv perhaps decades and attempt the very difficult task of breaking into the British party system. That's why it is easier to give up or cross to an existing party than defect to body and start a new one.
Thst may not have been the best approach but I think it a bit unkind to suggest it was easier to ho down this route. It strikes me as, meaning no offence, what party spokesmen would say, like the accusation of them being csreerist.
Um, I was trying to be nice to them, by saying that the first move was often taken not by them but by their parties (the message for whom is, don't support a VONC unless you really want them to quit). I wasn't accusing them of anything. I think they are politically a serious mistake and damaging in unpredictable ways, mostly to centrist politics, but I wish them nothing but well personally and regard some of them as personal friends.
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
“Temporary” doesn’t really work, when “out of the way” is still years and years away
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
Do you have friends?
Er, yes. Although not as many as you, I am sure.
The idea that you would choose or exclude friends on the basis of their moderate centrist opinion held by + or - half the population (ie Remain or Leave) is, when looked at in the cool light of morning, raving bonkers. Life is too short.
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
There are doubtlessly good and bad on both sides. I do find it sad though when politics gets in the way of personal relationships. I can't really countenance remainers who would NEVER be friends with leavers or vice-versa. I'm from Sheffield (a narrow leave city) and live in Glasgow (huge remain), and I feel for both sides.
I'm certainly not judging anyone who, through circumstance, happens to associate with a lot more of one side than the other. It's the bubble dwelling people who won't even engage with someone who disagrees with them that I can't stand and it's more common than you think.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
'You may no longer want Brexit but a slim majority of you did three years ago - so you're stuck with it!' It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
'You may no longer want Brexit but a slim majority of you did three years ago - so you're stuck with it!' It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
I assume confirmatory votes will be required every three years for whatever decision is made?
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
Something that Tory members/enthusiasts dont seem to appreciate about their vote is that it historically has been a broad coalition. A reasonable chunk of that includes votes who don't tend to agree with the Tories ideologically but vote for them because of perceived higher competency. Most of that vote is lost for a decade - some will be retained because of Corbyn, but if he was replaced all that vote is available for Labour.
If the Tories install a lazy buffoon or misguided idealogue as leader it does not matter if the party comes together, the Tory voting coalition will not.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
'You may no longer want Brexit but a slim majority of you did three years ago - so you're stuck with it!' It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
I assume confirmatory votes will be required every three years for whatever decision is made?
... only if the country ever gets in as bad a position as it is now.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. o give a fuck.
lol
each to his own of course, but the underlying assumption that the other side want to make out with intolerant prigs might be talking selfrighteous smugness a step too far,
I don't think it makes me intolerant to not want to be friends with people who hate my other friends for loving each other or want to deport my wife. I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life.
" I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life"
actually you do, thats how tolerant societies work. Agreeing with them is a different matter
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
Do you have friends?
Er, yes. Although not as many as you, I am sure.
The idea that you would choose or exclude friends on the basis of their moderate centrist opinion held by + or - half the population (ie Remain or Leave) is, when looked at in the cool light of morning, raving bonkers. Life is too short.
I agree 100%. I have never done that. It simply turned out in 2016 that basically everyone I was already friends with, even those I disagreed with politically, voted Remain. Since 2016 I have not met any vocal Leaver that I have become friends with, but that is only because I have not met any vocal Leavers.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
'You may no longer want Brexit but a slim majority of you did three years ago - so you're stuck with it!' It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
I assume confirmatory votes will be required every three years for whatever decision is made?
If there is one consistent theme across Europe it is that if people vote for the EU, that vote is decisive. If they vote against, they get told to rethink the matter.
If that Peston tweet is true, you can’t ratify something that’s not been agreed with the EU and even more shocking that May would even think of removing the backstop given recent events in NI .
Although I agree with the lead that ‘MoreoftheSame UK’ appears to be running into the sand, I am not sure given the time available and the numbers and logistics involved in standing for the local elections that this would ever have been a realistic prospect, even had they decided to do so. I also think David Owen had a point in suggesting that local elections are a distraction from what should be their primary purpose of bringing about political change at Wesminster.
Their real problem is that they are not focusing on the latter, having volunteered for a futile head-to-head with the LibDems as to who is the party of Remain, having displayed precious little inclination to abandon the worst habits of Westminster, and by passing up the chance to head its Euro lists with genuinely new fresh candidates, instead opting to prioritise political has-beens and B list celebrities.
Agreed, whether they fought in council elections or not is a secondary issue. If they want to be an ongoing political force their mistakes are not creating electoral pact with other parties, not proposing two or three tangible policies that would quickly improve peoples lives, and not creating a significant online presence.
They did achieve some changes in tone and policy from both Labour and Tories after their resignations but they could and should have done much more.
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
There is no majority for revoke either unless Macron vetoes in October and a forced choice of revoke or No Deal is made. May will press on with her Deal and agree further extension as she cannot now be challenged again until December
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
CUK gets almost as many Tory voters as Labour voters in current polls, many Tory Remainers could vote CUK if as is likely Boris or Raab succeeds May.
En Marche showed how a centrist party could win against socialist left and conservative and populist right
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
There is no majority for revoke either unless Macron vetoes in October and a forced choice of revoke or No Deal is made. May will press on with her Deal and agree further extension as she cannot now be challenged again until December
Does she have a chance of surviving another vote in December? How scared are the payroll MPs of a potential ERG leader/Boris?
MEPs' retirements confirmed so far (waiting for Brexit full lists)
Name (party, year of birth; years of service)
Lucy Anderson (Labour, 2014-19) David Campbell Bannerman (Conservatives, 1960; 2009-19) Jacqueline Foster (Conservatives, 1947; 1999-2004, 2009-19) Julie Girling (Independent, elected as Conservatives; 1956; 2009-19) Mary Honeyball (Labour, 1952; 2000-19) Ian Hudghton (SNP, 1951; 1998-2019) Jean Lambert (Greens, 1950; 1999-2019) Linda McAvan (Labour, 1962; 1998-2019) Jim Nicholson (UUP, 1945; 1989-2019) Patrick O'Flynn (SDP elected as UKIP, 1965; 2014-19) Kay Swinburne (Conservatives, 1967; 2009-19) Keith Taylor (Greens, 1953; 2010-19) Derek Vaughan (Labour, 1961; 2009-19)
MEPs can take their parliamentary pension at 63. Pension is calculated as follows: 3.5% of salary multiplied by number of years of service. Pensions can't be higher than 70% of the salary. Gross monthly salary is currently € 8.757,70 (€ 6.824,85 after EU taxation. Further national taxation is possible)
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
CUK gets almost as many Tory voters as Labour voters in current polls, many Tory Remainers could vote CUK if as is likely Boris or Raab succeeds May.
To be fair CHUK also apparently gets about a third of its support from Leavers in those self-same polls, so I’m not sure how much subsamples tell us...
She is promoting the only possible way for the UK to leave the EU on sensible and realistic terms which avoids damage.
That many in the Commons want to cause damage to their country is not her fault.
I am in a small minority who think she did a good job negotiating the WA, if we are going to Brexit, it is fine, it will only last a few years on broadly similar terms as we are now so wont cause particular damage, and various different flavours of long term brexit would be open to us.
The issue is she has been the worst PM in recent memory in promoting this, and she still is not doing it. She knows the issues inside and out better than any of the ERG, why is she not on TV every week pitching for her deal, offering to debate Boris or JRM or Corbyn rather than being hunkered in her bunker looking deluded and indecisivie (I agree she is far from indecisive but that is how she will appear to many).
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
Remaining without a referendum would make an absolute mockery of democracy.
And a missed opportunity, if public opinion is now indeed approaching 60/40 against Brexit.
'You may no longer want Brexit but a slim majority of you did three years ago - so you're stuck with it!' It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
I assume confirmatory votes will be required every three years for whatever decision is made?
We have confirmatory votes on everything every 5 years
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
CUK gets almost as many Tory voters as Labour voters in current polls, many Tory Remainers could vote CUK if as is likely Boris or Raab succeeds May.
En Marche showed how a centrist party could win against socialist left and conservative and populist right
With FPTP, Macron won't happen here. CUK will damage Labour more than Con. Don't worry after a few months of introspection the Tories will be fine!
Number one on the CUK list for the West Midlands seems to be Stephen Dorrell. So I’ll be voting Green. More broadly, events have overtaken CUK. Realistically, from here the Brexit path is either No Deal or a referendum with Remain on the ballot. The former looks more likely than the latter, but only just. As per Martin Kettle, the party it all hinges on is Labour:
At the moment it is actually Deal plus Customs Union which is closer to a Commons majority than either No Deal or EUref2 as the indicative votes showed and May is still determined to get her Deal through without a referendum.
May is undoubtedly determined. But she is also deluded. There is no Commons majority for anything. That’s why No Deal remains the default, with Remain vía referendum the only other realistic possibility.
No Deal is not the default anymore, the current Commons will always vote for extension over No Deal, unless Macron vetoes in October further extension. Labour MPs from Leave seats will vote for Deal plus Customs Union but not EUref2 see even Stephen Kinnock
So it’s Remain without a referendum, unless the Tories can win an election on a No Deal platform.
There is no majority for revoke either unless Macron vetoes in October and a forced choice of revoke or No Deal is made. May will press on with her Deal and agree further extension as she cannot now be challenged again until December
Does she have a chance of surviving another vote in December? How scared are the payroll MPs of a potential ERG leader/Boris?
Probably not but by then further extension from October will have been agreed if the WA has not passed yet and provided Macron has not vetoed
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
I think the nub is on which side lies the implicit threat. I may have observed before that I'd probably consider Old Firm supporters to share a certain propensity for victimhood, paranoia and entitlement, but in pubs full of either sets of fans there's only one lot that I've feared getting a doing from, and they don't wear the green. Similarly did anyone (aside from that arsehole Sarah Vine) who voted leave feel physically threatened during the London anti Brexit march?
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
CUK gets almost as many Tory voters as Labour voters in current polls, many Tory Remainers could vote CUK if as is likely Boris or Raab succeeds May.
To be fair CHUK also apparently gets about a third of its support from Leavers in those self-same polls, so I’m not sure how much subsamples tell us...
Yougov has 3% of Remainers voting Brexit Party and 2% of Leavers voting CUK in the EU Parliament elections but there will always be exceptions
Once Brexit is out of the way the Tories will quite happily paper over the cracks and be the force to be reckoned with once more.
Labour on the other hand have been hijacked by unelectable raging Trots, and until or unless they hand the reins back to someone sensible the Labour Party will languish around 30%. Momentum will not hand the party back - not when the prize ithey crave is perpetual opposition.
Tory woes are temporary. Labour are finished!
It is possible once we actually Brexit and the Tories get a Brexiteer leader and if Umunna replaces Allen as CUK leader and the Corbynistas stay in charge of Labour CUK could overtake Labour yes while the Brexit Party fades as we have left the EU
Whoever becomes tbe Tory leader tbe party will coalesce around them. CUK are not going to supercede Labour but they will help to split the anti- Conservative vote. Centre left voters will be without a voice for generations.
CUK gets almost as many Tory voters as Labour voters in current polls, many Tory Remainers could vote CUK if as is likely Boris or Raab succeeds May.
En Marche showed how a centrist party could win against socialist left and conservative and populist right
With FPTP, Macron won't happen here. CUK will damage Labour more than Con. Don't worry after a few months of introspection the Tories will be fine!
Macron and En Marche even narrowly won the first round of both the presidential and legislative elections which are effectively FPTP unlike the runoff.
CUK will win Tory Remainers and centrists as well as Labour Remainers and centrists if we leave the EU and Boris or Raab leads the Tories and Corbyn stays Labour leader
MEPs who are not re-elected will get the transitional allowance. It is one month salary multiplied by the number of years as MEP for a maximum of 24 monthly salaries. If the retiring/defeated MEP is entitled of the pension, he/she has to choose between pension and this allowance (but if I read it correctly, I think they can claim the allowance and then move into the pension after it).
It would suit up the ERG and if it passes and the EU reject it she can then shift to Deal again or Deal plus Customs Union
Wasn't this fantasy seriously discussed last time around and then in the end rejected?
We can't go on like this.
Sadly we can and will go on like this! Expect delays until a decision on Brexit in 2021/2 imo
This parliament will not make any decision on Brexit other than further delay. No majority exists for any of the possible ways out. So there will be no clear way forward until after the next election, and the chances of one emerging then are not great if current opinion polling is any guide. Another hung parliament is likely to be as deadlocked as the current one.
The Remain/Leave split in somewhere like inner Birmingham would suggest that plenty of Remain voters there would be of the view that homosexuality is an abomination. Some of them might have some interesting opinions on Jews and Christians, as well. Likewise, I doubt if Remain voters in Crossmaglen are noted for tolerance.
There are good and bad people on either side.
I agree there are good and bad people on either side. I just think there are more good people on the Remain side, which I think is an objective fact if we can agree that holding xenophobic views makes you a bad person, which is why I have some sympathy with people who can't imagine being friends with Leavers. I can personally imagine being friends with a Leaver, although in reality I am not.
I think the nub is on which side lies the implicit threat. I may have observed before that I'd probably consider Old Firm supporters to share a certain propensity for victimhood, paranoia and entitlement, but in pubs full of either sets of fans there's only one lot that I've feared getting a doing from, and they don't wear the green. Similarly did anyone (aside from that arsehole Sarah Vine) who voted leave feel physically threatened during the London anti Brexit march?
Most of the (few) Leavers I associate with take the view that 'we should just Leave'.
No, I don't understand, either. So I just let them get on with it and talk about something else.
It’s the difference between being a senior manager in a large company and the owner of a start-up. They’re not the same job at all.
Some of their mistakes have been very basic though. They need a sense of energy at least. Where is it?
I
I am not sure I buy the branding/name criticisms. Everyone is talking about both, which is kind of the point of a party name and branding, isn’t it? They may be crap, but then Conservative and Labour are hardly inspiring. And what on earth does Liberal Democrat even mean? The key thing is name recognition and association. Now everyone knows CUK/TIG and everyone knows it is an anti-Brexit party. Job done at low cost, surely.
I respectfully think that's bubble speak.
Unless you're a political anorak you won't have much clue what CHUCK UP NP TIG means or stands for. It's hopeless.
People are stupid. Okay, sorry, that's very bad. But people aren't as clued up about politics and politicking as we might think. Nigel Farage for all his many faults gets that perfectly. So did the Leave campaign. You need a simple message and simple branding. In particular:
- Your party name needs to do what it says on the tin. Not so much of a problem if you've been around 100 years. Big problem if you're a new kid on the block. Brexit Party: simple and very effective.
- A clear powerful slogan. Not some management elitist bubble speak. A clear decisive slogan. Take Back Control: brilliant
- A logo that matches the above. Cameron was lampooned for the Tory Tree and probably for good reason
- Branding that matches the message. The Tigger Chuckup was hopelessly awful
- One clear decisive leader. This was the schoolboy error of the two David's (hilariously and viciously shredded by Spitting Image). It's like everything else: one simple single theme, slogan, brand, logo, leader.
Change UK haven't adjusted to the mindset of not being one of the two main parties yet. Under FPTP they need to make alliances, under d'Hondt maybe they don't, but would do better if they did.
I know. Brexit has induced hysteria in otherwise sensible people. An interesting UnHerd article today made this point very well. "Rather than assessing things rationally, and engaging with those who hold different points of view, people cling to comfort blankets, such as catastrophising, distancing and emotional reasoning." https://unherd.com/2019/04/have-the-remainers-lost-perspective/
But isn't it quite possible that the average Remainer is a nicer person than the average Leaver, and so this survey captures a rational response not bias on the part of those nasty Remainers? Of course I may just be exhibiting this bias myself, but I would cite a couple of pieces of evidence that I think are supportive. First, compare and contrast the behaviour of protesters for the two sides at recent protests in London. Second, take a look at the constellation of views that correlate with support for Leave, eg on race, sexuality, the death penalty. Having said this I would probably put myself in the 70% as I am sure there must be one or two Leavers who are OK. I don't know any Leavers though so it's hard to say for certain.
Top trolling, unless you're serious. I don't think there's much correlation myself, except that Remain is more urban and middle-class, which one may like or not according to personal preference.
I am serious, sorry. o give a fuck.
lol
each to his own of course, but the underlying assumption that the other side want to make out with intolerant prigs might be talking selfrighteous smugness a step too far,
I don't think it makes me intolerant to not want to be friends with people who hate my other friends for loving each other or want to deport my wife. I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life.
" I don't have to tolerate people who are a threat to my way of life"
actually you do, thats how tolerant societies work. Agreeing with them is a different matter
How far tolerant societies should tolerate the threat from the intolerant is one of the most pressing questions of our times. Only up to a point is I think the honest answer, and indeed the revealed preference of these societies. Where that point is depends on your tolerance to the threat and that in part depends on whether the threat is to you and your loved ones directly. "if you tolerate this, your children will be next" turned out to be prophetic, after all.
Even Change is crap. Change to what? Why? For whom? Most people, not just Gaffer Gamgee, actually don't like change. If you're going to advocate change you need to be very clear and decisive what you're offering them to change to. Offering a message of malcontent isn't enough if you're hoping for power. You'll remain fringe.
Has it also not occurred to anyone that Change and Remain are diametric opposites?
She is promoting the only possible way for the UK to leave the EU on sensible and realistic terms which avoids damage.
That many in the Commons want to cause damage to their country is not her fault.
I am in a small minority who think she did a good job negotiating the WA, if we are going to Brexit, it is fine, it will only last a few years on broadly similar terms as we are now so wont cause particular damage, and various different flavours of long term brexit would be open to us.
The issue is she has been the worst PM in recent memory in promoting this, and she still is not doing it. She knows the issues inside and out better than any of the ERG, why is she not on TV every week pitching for her deal, offering to debate Boris or JRM or Corbyn rather than being hunkered in her bunker looking deluded and indecisivie (I agree she is far from indecisive but that is how she will appear to many).
Yes that is undoubtedly true.
She is not doing it because that is not one of her skills. But the substance of what she has achieved remains regardless of that.
But yes she is a shockingly bad PM for our digital times.
Re CHUK, I just do not think there is a great demand for a new centrist political party. We have the LibDems. They are a centrist party, well established too, and about to get a new leader who will do better than Vince. And we have the two big parties, OK at present captured by right and left but still room there for centre ground people to make their mark, and in any case they will probably tack a little towards the centre again one day fairly soon. Why on earth get animated by these new guys? Nothing new is offered. The personnel are just disaffected MPs and their disaffection is for disparate reasons. No ideology. No coherent policy platform. No thank you.
Re CHUK, I just do not think there is a great demand for a new centrist political party. We have the LibDems. They are a centrist party, well established too, and about to get a new leader who will do better than Vince. And we have the two big parties, OK at present captured by right and left but still room there for centre ground people to make their mark, and in any case they will probably tack a little towards the centre again one day fairly soon. Why on earth get animated by these new guys? Nothing new is offered. The personnel are just disaffected MPs and their disaffection is for disparate reasons. No ideology. No coherent policy platform. No thank you.
There is great demand for an effective centrist party, IMO. Neither the LibDems nor Change UK are meeting it at the moment.
Even Change is crap. Change to what? Why? For whom? Most people, not just Gaffer Gamgee, actually don't like change. If you're going to advocate change you need to be very clear and decisive what you're offering them to change to. Offering a message of malcontent isn't enough if you're hoping for power. You'll remain fringe.
Has it also not occurred to anyone that Change and Remain are diametric opposites?
Change has been consistently shown by focus groups to be a vote-winning slogan. It was Obama's slogan. Of course you are right that it seems quite vapid, but people are apt to fall for marketing campaigns. We'll see if this one has any legs.
It’s the difference between being a senior manager in a large company and the owner of a start-up. They’re not the same job at all.
Some of their mistakes have been very basic though. They need a sense of energy at least. Where is it?
I
I am not sure I buy the branding/name criticisms. Everyone is talking about both, which is kind of the point of a party name and branding, isn’t it? They may be crap, but then Conservative and Labour are hardly inspiring. And what on earth does Liberal Democrat even mean? The key thing is name recognition and association. Now everyone knows CUK/TIG and everyone knows it is an anti-Brexit party. Job done at low cost, surely.
I respectfully think that's bubble speak.
Unless you're a political anorak you won't have much clue what CHUCK UP NP TIG means or stands for. It's hopeless.
People are stupid. Okay, sorry, that's very bad. But people aren't as clued up about politics and politicking as we might think. Nigel Farage for all his many faults gets that perfectly. So did the Leave campaign. You need a simple message and simple branding. In particular:
- Your party name needs to do what it says on the tin. Not so much of a problem if you've been around 100 years. Big problem if you're a new kid on the block. Brexit Party: simple and very effective.
- A clear powerful slogan. Not some management elitist bubble speak. A clear decisive slogan. Take Back Control: brilliant
- A logo that matches the above. Cameron was lampooned for the Tory Tree and probably for good reason
- Branding that matches the message. The Tigger Chuckup was hopelessly awful
- One clear decisive leader. This was the schoolboy error of the two David's (hilariously and viciously shredded by Spitting Image). It's like everything else: one simple single theme, slogan, brand, logo, leader.
Keep it simple. Keep it strong.
Exactly.
The most successful political branding exercise in recent years was New Labour.
And it did all the things in your list.
New Labour - Tony Blair - for the many not the few (a slogan which is still being used by Labour today)
FPT--the idea that, after three years of Brexit, Scotland will vote to go through that all over again with independence (which would be all the issues of Brexit on steroids) seems for the birds to me. Desire for full membership of the EU is very unlikely to overrule all of those concerns, despite how passionately some might feel about it.
Comments
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1120276243235201024?s=20
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1121307028503310338
'One of the remarkeable, yet unremarked, good things that happened yesterday was that the PM, leader of the DUP, and LOTO all attended a memorial service for an out Lesbian Catholic. Even Ulster is beginning to move with the times.'
The service was an inspiration as the priest put all the politicians on the naughty step with the congregation rising as one in unity applauding the priest demands the politicians used the tragic death of this young journalist as a catalyst for good.
It took some moments for the politicians to rise to join the applause and their embarrassment was there on full display
It struck me that the media should put that moment in time on repeat every hour on the hour to knock sense into all our idiotic warring politicians
https://twitter.com/FinlayMcF/status/1121297334393090050
Their real problem is that they are not focusing on the latter, having volunteered for a futile head-to-head with the LibDems as to who is the party of Remain, having displayed precious little inclination to abandon the worst habits of Westminster, and by passing up the chance to head its Euro lists with genuinely new fresh candidates, instead opting to prioritise political has-beens and B list celebrities.
We can't go on like this.
“Temporary” doesn’t really work, when “out of the way” is still years and years away
I'm certainly not judging anyone who, through circumstance, happens to associate with a lot more of one side than the other. It's the bubble dwelling people who won't even engage with someone who disagrees with them that I can't stand and it's more common than you think.
It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1121128120243953670
If the Tories install a lazy buffoon or misguided idealogue as leader it does not matter if the party comes together, the Tory voting coalition will not.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1121308692610154496
actually you do, thats how tolerant societies work. Agreeing with them is a different matter
If that Peston tweet is true, you can’t ratify something that’s not been agreed with the EU and even more shocking that May would even think of removing the backstop given recent events in NI .
They did achieve some changes in tone and policy from both Labour and Tories after their resignations but they could and should have done much more.
En Marche showed how a centrist party could win against socialist left and conservative and populist right
Now she is neither deluded nor indecisive.
She is promoting the only possible way for the UK to leave the EU on sensible and realistic terms which avoids damage.
That many in the Commons want to cause damage to their country is not her fault.
Name (party, year of birth; years of service)
Lucy Anderson (Labour, 2014-19)
David Campbell Bannerman (Conservatives, 1960; 2009-19)
Jacqueline Foster (Conservatives, 1947; 1999-2004, 2009-19)
Julie Girling (Independent, elected as Conservatives; 1956; 2009-19)
Mary Honeyball (Labour, 1952; 2000-19)
Ian Hudghton (SNP, 1951; 1998-2019)
Jean Lambert (Greens, 1950; 1999-2019)
Linda McAvan (Labour, 1962; 1998-2019)
Jim Nicholson (UUP, 1945; 1989-2019)
Patrick O'Flynn (SDP elected as UKIP, 1965; 2014-19)
Kay Swinburne (Conservatives, 1967; 2009-19)
Keith Taylor (Greens, 1953; 2010-19)
Derek Vaughan (Labour, 1961; 2009-19)
MEPs can take their parliamentary pension at 63. Pension is calculated as follows:
3.5% of salary multiplied by number of years of service. Pensions can't be higher than 70% of the salary.
Gross monthly salary is currently € 8.757,70 (€ 6.824,85 after EU taxation. Further national taxation is possible)
The issue is she has been the worst PM in recent memory in promoting this, and she still is not doing it. She knows the issues inside and out better than any of the ERG, why is she not on TV every week pitching for her deal, offering to debate Boris or JRM or Corbyn rather than being hunkered in her bunker looking deluded and indecisivie (I agree she is far from indecisive but that is how she will appear to many).
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/18/voting-intention-conservatives-29-labour-30-16-17-
CUK will win Tory Remainers and centrists as well as Labour Remainers and centrists if we leave the EU and Boris or Raab leads the Tories and Corbyn stays Labour leader
No, I don't understand, either. So I just let them get on with it and talk about something else.
Unless you're a political anorak you won't have much clue what CHUCK UP NP TIG means or stands for. It's hopeless.
People are stupid. Okay, sorry, that's very bad. But people aren't as clued up about politics and politicking as we might think. Nigel Farage for all his many faults gets that perfectly. So did the Leave campaign. You need a simple message and simple branding. In particular:
- Your party name needs to do what it says on the tin. Not so much of a problem if you've been around 100 years. Big problem if you're a new kid on the block.
Brexit Party: simple and very effective.
- A clear powerful slogan. Not some management elitist bubble speak. A clear decisive slogan. Take Back Control: brilliant
- A logo that matches the above. Cameron was lampooned for the Tory Tree and probably for good reason
- Branding that matches the message. The Tigger Chuckup was hopelessly awful
- One clear decisive leader. This was the schoolboy error of the two David's (hilariously and viciously shredded by Spitting Image). It's like everything else: one simple single theme, slogan, brand, logo, leader.
Keep it simple. Keep it strong.
Deutsche Bank and Commerz Bank call off the wedding
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bank-und-commerzbank-fusionsgespraeche-scheitern-wohl-16156677.html
Has it also not occurred to anyone that Change and Remain are diametric opposites?
She is not doing it because that is not one of her skills. But the substance of what she has achieved remains regardless of that.
But yes she is a shockingly bad PM for our digital times.
https://twitter.com/richardf/status/1121333703656050688
His big offer appears to be the close the Ecole nationale dAdministration
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron-un-rendez-vous-crucial-avec-le-pays-20190424
The most successful political branding exercise in recent years was New Labour.
And it did all the things in your list.
New Labour - Tony Blair - for the many not the few (a slogan which is still being used by Labour today)
Couldn't the same be said of the Brexit Party?
https://twitter.com/jayrayner1/status/1121329488317562880