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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs

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  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    The designs of the clock in the main square have already been submitted to architects

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBI9iBerg3w
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't include any pensions - because many people's only savings are their pension - so they won't want a situation where funds would have to be withdrawn from the pension to pay the wealth tax - which would be completely impractical with any final salary scheme (public or private).

    In my view there are only two options:

    1) Land only

    2) Land + liquid savings (ie bank accounts, shares, unit trusts, bonds etc). ISAs might or might not be excluded (if Labour keep them!)

    Land only seems the most likely - at least initially - again, just to keep it as simple as possible and not to draw too many people into the net, at least at the start.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Scott_P said:
    "I'm very old, y'know. And I dont fondle women as much as I did, honest. Vote Biden in '16! Um, 20! Geez, is it 2020 already? Time files. Did I tell you I come from Scranton? It's difficult to remember... :( "
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:
    I guess people don’t fill in those ‘have you done anything that might embarrass the party?’ questions.

    And the parties are *still* not hiring people to go through the social media of prospective candidates for election - because journalists are going to start doing just that as soon as the names are announced.
    To which my reply would be "not as many things as the party is doing to embarrass me'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Charles said:

    rpjs said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    far better that they introduce a property tax as that is much simpler to administer and harder to avoid.

    Isn't that council tax ?
    My preference is for a US style property tax. (And yes, there are ways to protect widows and orphans living in mansions)
    They don’t work terribly well in practice. It’s not just the weather that drives retirement-age suburban New Yorkers to the South! We certainly won’t be able to afford to live in Westchester County after we reach retirement age.
    And there was me assuming that Florida's 0% income tax had something to do with it.

    There's no other reason to live in FLA!
    The birdwatching is rather good....
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm not totally clear why Labour's ongoing issues with racism and misogyny mean Donald Trump shouldn't be invited.
    Hilarious.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    Apparently ‘no chance’ the next GE comes before AB

    It is probably better for Farage that there is a GE before a deal isn’t it?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:
    I'm not totally clear why Labour's ongoing issues with racism and misogyny mean Donald Trump shouldn't be invited.
    It’s all so silly, as if he hasn’t been to other places.
    Well, the racism and misogyny in Labour is emphatically a British problem. But I still don't see what that's got to do with Trump. More Corbyn.
    Perhaps they're upset that he's insufficiently racist.
    Perhaps I should have linked it with the other Trump story in this thread (not, to be serious for a moment, that it redounds to his credit).
    Different type of racism. Trump loves Israel.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1120706743334514689

    How does this man earn more money than me?

    Injustice!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,160
    edited April 2019
    Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff figures now out
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunuone said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1120706743334514689

    How does this man earn more money than me?

    Injustice!

    We need to get back to "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words can never hurt me" as quickly as possible.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Danny565 said:
    Given that the stripes are clearly meant to evoke TIGgers, alternating orange and black would seem appropriate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,160
    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Danny565 said:
    Anything else is just a funny tinge.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't include any pensions - because many people's only savings are their pension - so they won't want a situation where funds would have to be withdrawn from the pension to pay the wealth tax - which would be completely impractical with any final salary scheme (public or private).

    In my view there are only two options:

    1) Land only

    2) Land + liquid savings (ie bank accounts, shares, unit trusts, bonds etc). ISAs might or might not be excluded (if Labour keep them!)

    Land only seems the most likely - at least initially - again, just to keep it as simple as possible and not to draw too many people into the net, at least at the start.

    We already have a wealth tax on pensions - it’s called the lifetime allowance. A potential 95 per cent charge on any lump sum taken over a pot of £1m. And it’s causing lots of experienced NHS consultants to quit as their annual tax charges mean they are worse off carrying on working - another badly thought out Osborne idea as just a few years ago the LTA was nearly £2m. Add in the £40l annual allowance and it’s even more of a mess.

    Yet there is no capital gains on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a mainly function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income. Yet as we saw with the dementia tax debate its toxic politically if presented badly.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't include any pensions - because many people's only savings are their pension - so they won't want a situation where funds would have to be withdrawn from the pension to pay the wealth tax - which would be completely impractical with any final salary scheme (public or private).

    In my view there are only two options:

    1) Land only

    2) Land + liquid savings (ie bank accounts, shares, unit trusts, bonds etc). ISAs might or might not be excluded (if Labour keep them!)

    Land only seems the most likely - at least initially - again, just to keep it as simple as possible and not to draw too many people into the net, at least at the start.

    We already have a wealth tax on pensions - it’s called the lifetime allowance. A potential 95 per cent charge on any lump sum taken over a pot of £1m. And it’s causing lots of experienced NHS consultants to quit as their annual tax charges mean they are worse off carrying on working - another badly thought out Osborne idea.

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
  • nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Conhome has announced that the threshold for the voluntary party no confidence vote has been reached.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
  • HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    ConHome the home of UKIP and the English National Party
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Danny565 said:
    Given that the stripes are clearly meant to evoke TIGgers, alternating orange and black would seem appropriate.
    Maybe we should start calling them the zebras?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't include any pensions - because many people's only savings are their pension - so they won't want a situation where funds would have to be withdrawn from the pension to pay the wealth tax - which would be completely impractical with any final salary scheme (public or private).

    In my view there are only two options:

    1) Land only

    2) Land + liquid savings (ie bank accounts, shares, unit trusts, bonds etc). ISAs might or might not be excluded (if Labour keep them!)

    Land only seems the most likely - at least initially - again, just to keep it as simple as possible and not to draw too many people into the net, at least at the start.

    We already have a wealth tax on pensions - it’s called the lifetime allowance. A potential 95 per cent charge on any lump sum taken over a pot of £1m. And it’s causing lots of experienced NHS consultants to quit as their annual tax charges mean they are worse off carrying on working - another badly thought out Osborne idea.

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
    Not worse off, just at a marginal tax rate of 80%+

    It comes from the annual allowance, which includes both employers and employees contribution and also increase in pension pot size. The annual allowance starts to reduce on higher incomes, and can land up the lucky person with a massive tax bill. ,£18,000 for me, before my accountant set to work on claiming unused allowances in previous years. Unlike income tax though, this is a tax on money yet to be received so can cause quite a cash flow problem.

    It means experienced clinicians get paid pretty much the same if they reduce to 70% of WTE and do no overtime, or retire earlier than they otherwise intended. Presumably doctors are not the only ones this hits, but Mr Hancock is aware of the impact of this on retention of senior cadres.

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/gp-topics/pensions/hancock-in-discussions-with-treasury-about-changing-gp-pension-tax-rules/20038079.article
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
    The country wishes it was all over but there is absolutely no consensus how it should be over. You can’t blame Dominic Grieve for that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
    I think that you mean that the starter course would be over, and the main argument and negotiation could begin. We have a decade or more of this to look forward to!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
    If the country wants it over. I'm not convinced that is true. If it were MPs would not delay so much.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
    It would be all over if the ERG had voted for the WA.Don't blame others for a failure to deliver what you seem obsessed about. Yes the country wishes it was all over but that is not a reason to allow any old crap to go through as someone upthread said “brexit is for life not for Christmas”
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
    It hasn't done so though, so trotting out that line doesnt work, as it is not true. All it has done is ask for more time.
  • dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
    Raab utterly hopeless and note no women in the line up
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2019
    And the first CHUK candidate to fall is...

    http://twitter.com/TheIndGroup/status/1120740966393090048
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    ConHome the home of UKIP and the English National Party
    Indeed. I'd hazard a guess Nigel Farage could beat the lot of them on ConHome if he was an option...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    G
    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't include any pensions - because many people's only savings are their pension - so they won't want a situation where funds would have to be withdrawn from the pension to pay the wealth tax - which would be completely impractical with any final salary scheme (public or private).

    In my view there are only two options:

    1) Land only

    2) Land + liquid savings (ie bank accounts, shares, unit trusts, bonds etc). ISAs might or might not be excluded (if Labour keep them!)

    Land only seems the most likely - at least initially - again, just to keep it as simple as possible and not to draw too many people into the net, at least at the start.

    We already have a wealth tax on pensions - it’s called the lifetime allowance. A potential 95 per cent charge on any lump sum taken over a pot of £1m. And it’s causing lots of experienced NHS consultants to quit as their annual tax charges mean they are worse off carrying on working - another badly thought out Osborne idea.

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
    Not worse off, just at a marginal tax rate of 80%+

    It comes from the annual allowance, which includes both employers and employees contribution and also increase in pension pot size. The annual allowance starts to reduce on higher incomes, and can land up the lucky person with a massive tax bill. ,£18,000 for me, before my accountant set to work on claiming unused allowances in previous years. Unlike income tax though, this is a tax on money yet to be received so can cause quite a cash flow problem.

    It means experienced clinicians get paid pretty much the same if they reduce to 70% of WTE and do no overtime, or retire earlier than they otherwise intended. Presumably doctors are not the only ones this hits, but Mr Hancock is aware of the impact of this on retention of senior cadres.

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/gp-topics/pensions/hancock-in-discussions-with-treasury-about-changing-gp-pension-tax-rules/20038079.article
    What is the annual pension value that accrues to a NHS employee who has reached the maximum lifetime allowance and how does that compare to the pension value from a private sector pension that has reached the same maximum lifetimes allowance. Is it the same?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    By “the people” you mean “Theresa May”.
    The people who voted to Leave and the people whose votes led to her being PM
    Your fellow Leavers felt strongly that her version of Brexit should be opposed. Dominic Grieve did them a favour.
    The country wishes it was all over, and if DG hadn't got busy, it would be now.
    I think that you mean that the starter course would be over, and the main argument and negotiation could begin. We have a decade or more of this to look forward to!
    Yes, we are going around in circles.

    May put Leave on the table.

    Those who purportedly wanted to leave the EU voted it down, time and time again.

    It really is that simple.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    And the first CHUK candidate to fall is...

    http://twitter.com/TheIndGroup/status/1120740966393090048

    LOL, that must be close to a record speed for a candidate stepping down.
  • kyf_100 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    ConHome the home of UKIP and the English National Party
    Indeed. I'd hazard a guess Nigel Farage could beat the lot of them on ConHome if he was an option...
    And that so accurately reflects where the hard brexiteers have headed, away from consensus, and to the extremes. Francois, Baker and Cash and others are not my conservatives and never will be as long as they put the party in jeopardy

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,901
    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
    Raab utterly hopeless and note no women in the line up
    Which Tory leadership candidate is tickling your fancy?
  • stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    Only problem with your comment is the brexit party being centre right..They are of the right
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    I bet if Nigel Farage's were included, he'd run ahead of all the alternatives.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    matt said:

    G

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't

    We already have a wealth tax on

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
    Not worse off, just at a marginal tax rate of 80%+

    It comes from the annual allowance, which includes both employers and employees contribution and also increase in pension pot size. The annual allowance starts to reduce on higher incomes, and can land up the lucky person with a massive tax bill. ,£18,000 for me, before my accountant set to work on claiming unused allowances in previous years. Unlike income tax though, this is a tax on money yet to be received so can cause quite a cash flow problem.

    It means experienced clinicians get paid pretty much the same if they reduce to 70% of WTE and do no overtime, or retire earlier than they otherwise intended. Presumably doctors are not the only ones this hits, but Mr Hancock is aware of the impact of this on retention of senior cadres.

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/gp-topics/pensions/hancock-in-discussions-with-treasury-about-changing-gp-pension-tax-rules/20038079.article
    What is the annual pension value that accrues to a NHS employee who has reached the maximum lifetime allowance and how does that compare to the pension value from a private sector pension that has reached the same maximum lifetimes allowance. Is it the same?
    It is the same allowance, but as we have significant amounts in the old Final Salary Superannuation, the pension pot can significantly increase even with no further payments, £32,000 for me last tax year, so using pretty much my full allowance.

    One of the simplest options for me is to take actuarily reduced early retirement, then return to work part time. The combined income would be better than my current salary. In a shortage speciality like mine, I would walk into a job. The difficult thing would be deciding what to drop, as I enjoy pretty much my whole range of activities.

    It is a fortunate position to be in, but the problem is that I do not want to retire. I love my job.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    Good analysis
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    Only problem with your comment is the brexit party being centre right..They are of the right
    Well, the leadership certainly is, but the voters may well be much more wedded to the older welfare state.
  • Danny565 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
    Raab utterly hopeless and note no women in the line up
    Which Tory leadership candidate is tickling your fancy?
    When the time comes a dozen or more are likely to go forward with proper hustings and my hope is that one of the newer mps will break through to put the present Boris, Raab, etc dross to the sword
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    Only problem with your comment is the brexit party being centre right..They are of the right
    Very true. And to replace the Tories long term, they would need a coherent policy beyond Leave. One thing is for sure, Farages brand of state slashing, NHS privatising, de-regulation won't have the Northern Labour Leavers he is targeting dancing in the streets.
    Even if it would get the Tory Right tumescent.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    Virtually all the problems have com from the legislature trying to usurp the role of the executive. The voters and the executive both did their job.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    Virtually all the problems have com from the legislature trying to usurp the role of the executive. The voters and the executive both did their job.
    In 2017 the voters certainly did a job on the executive!
  • justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    matt said:

    G

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't

    We already have a wealth tax on

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
    Not worse off, just at a marginal tax rate of 80%+

    It comes from the annual allowance, which includes both employers and employees contribution and also increase in pension pot size. The annual allowance starts to reduce on higher incomes, and can land up the lucky person with a massive tax bill. ,£18,000 for me, before my accountant set to work on claiming unused allowances in previous years. Unlike income tax though, this is a tax on money yet to be received so can cause quite a cash flow problem.

    It means experienced clinicians get paid pretty much the same if they reduce to 70% of WTE and do no overtime, or retire earlier than they otherwise intended. Presumably doctors are not the only ones this hits, but Mr Hancock is aware of the impact of this on retention of senior cadres.

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/gp-topics/pensions/hancock-in-discussions-with-treasury-about-changing-gp-pension-tax-rules/20038079.article
    What is the annual pension value that accrues to a NHS employee who has reached the maximum lifetime allowance and how does that compare to the pension value from a private sector pension that has reached the same maximum lifetimes allowance. Is it the same?
    It is the same allowance, but as we have significant amounts in the old Final Salary Superannuation, the pension pot can significantly increase even with no further payments, £32,000 for me last tax year, so using pretty much my full allowance.

    One of the simplest options for me is to take actuarily reduced early retirement, then return to work part time. The combined income would be better than my current salary. In a shortage speciality like mine, I would walk into a job. The difficult thing would be deciding what to drop, as I enjoy pretty much my whole range of activities.

    It is a fortunate position to be in, but the problem is that I do not want to retire. I love my job.
    Can’t you defer your pension?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Well, lets see how they really vote in a vonc. It will be the shortest lived parliamentary party in modern times if they support May!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Foxy said:


    It is the same allowance, but as we have significant amounts in the old Final Salary Superannuation, the pension pot can significantly increase even with no further payments, £32,000 for me last tax year, so using pretty much my full allowance.

    One of the simplest options for me is to take actuarily reduced early retirement, then return to work part time. The combined income would be better than my current salary. In a shortage speciality like mine, I would walk into a job. The difficult thing would be deciding what to drop, as I enjoy pretty much my whole range of activities.

    It is a fortunate position to be in, but the problem is that I do not want to retire. I love my job.

    It's the same notional allowance, but the 'notional' bit is calculated in a way which is massively favourable to well-off final-salary employees. That is because the notional value of the final-salary is calculated at twenty times the annual starting pension of a final-salary scheme. However, most final salary schemes including public-sector ones are index-linked. For those of us on defined-contribution schemes (i.e. nearly all the private sector), you need a pot a hell of lot bigger than twenty times your starting amount to buy an index-linked annuity; these yield around 3.2%, not 5%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Amazing how despite demanding a "People's Vote" to overturn the referendum they repeatedly refuse to face their own electorates...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    matt said:

    G

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:


    MikeL said:

    If Labour introduce a wealth tax it's going to be tough to implement so they are going to want to keep it simple and practical. They aren't going to want years of wrangling and disputes and legal challenges etc etc.

    They won't

    We already have a wealth tax on

    Yet there is no capital gains or other charge on profits on primary homes despite those being unearned and a function of age, luck or family inheritances.

    Property wealth frankly isn’t taxed enough as it’s mostly unearned income.
    How are they worse off working?
    Not worse off, just at a marginal tax rate of 80%+

    It means experienced clinicians get paid pretty much the same if they reduce to 70% of WTE and do no overtime, or retire earlier than they otherwise intended. Presumably doctors are not the only ones this hits, but Mr Hancock is aware of the impact of this on retention of senior cadres.

    http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/gp-topics/pensions/hancock-in-discussions-with-treasury-about-changing-gp-pension-tax-rules/20038079.article
    What is the annual pension value that accrues to a NHS employee who has reached the maximum lifetime allowance and how does that compare to the pension value from a private sector pension that has reached the same maximum lifetimes allowance. Is it the same?
    It is the same allowance, but as we have significant amounts in the old Final Salary Superannuation, the pension pot can significantly increase even with no further payments, £32,000 for me last tax year, so using pretty much my full allowance.

    One of the simplest options for me is to take actuarily reduced early retirement, then return to work part time. The combined income would be better than my current salary. In a shortage speciality like mine, I would walk into a job. The difficult thing would be deciding what to drop, as I enjoy pretty much my whole range of activities.

    It is a fortunate position to be in, but the problem is that I do not want to retire. I love my job.
    Can’t you defer your pension?
    Yes, that is a further option, but it can exceed the allowance even then.

    After my gruelling Easter in the hospital, a bit of eearly retirement appeals!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    And the first CHUK candidate to fall is...

    http://twitter.com/TheIndGroup/status/1120740966393090048

    haha... Well if Chuka will surround himself with shady characters. First he was bigging up a load of anti semites, now he's attracting xenophobes... how many times before its "just bad luck"?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Foxy said:


    It is the same allowance, but as we have significant amounts in the old Final Salary Superannuation, the pension pot can significantly increase even with no further payments, £32,000 for me last tax year, so using pretty much my full allowance.

    One of the simplest options for me is to take actuarily reduced early retirement, then return to work part time. The combined income would be better than my current salary. In a shortage speciality like mine, I would walk into a job. The difficult thing would be deciding what to drop, as I enjoy pretty much my whole range of activities.

    It is a fortunate position to be in, but the problem is that I do not want to retire. I love my job.

    It's the same notional allowance, but the 'notional' bit is calculated in a way which is massively favourable to well-off final-salary employees. That is because the notional value of the final-salary is calculated at twenty times the annual starting pension of a final-salary scheme. However, most final salary schemes including public-sector ones are index-linked. For those of us on defined-contribution schemes (i.e. nearly all the private sector), you need a pot a hell of lot bigger than twenty times your starting amount to buy an index-linked annuity; these yield around 3.2%, not 5%.
    One reason to take the pension and run is that governments are not to be trusted with changing the rules!

    Like I said, it is a fortunate situation, but it certainly is affecting retention.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
    They were meant to take back control from the European Parliament, not the public (who may well have thought it were they who were taking back control.. as if!)
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
    In this political climate anything can happen included mps keeping Corbyn out
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,901
    nichomar said:



    Good analysis

    Thanks for the kind word.

    I keep coming back to the central question and the impasse around it. If there is no majority for the WA, no majority to leave without a Deal and no majority to revoke we are stuck like the proverbial fly on the metaphorical flypaper. We can't leave and we can't remain.

    This doesn't work for us or for the EU but the latter could, if they so chose, throw us out on October 31st but they won't or seem unable to do that because the economic shock impacts them as well.

    So the only change comes from changing the parliamentary numbers but a Conservative Party polling in the high 20s isn't going to play that game.

    I don't know how this ends though it will.
  • stodge said:

    nichomar said:



    Good analysis

    Thanks for the kind word.

    I keep coming back to the central question and the impasse around it. If there is no majority for the WA, no majority to leave without a Deal and no majority to revoke we are stuck like the proverbial fly on the metaphorical flypaper. We can't leave and we can't remain.

    This doesn't work for us or for the EU but the latter could, if they so chose, throw us out on October 31st but they won't or seem unable to do that because the economic shock impacts them as well.

    So the only change comes from changing the parliamentary numbers but a Conservative Party polling in the high 20s isn't going to play that game.

    I don't know how this ends though it will.
    Most everyone is in that boat to be honest
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    edited April 2019
    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    By-election? Did someone say "by-election"? :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Danny565 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
    Raab utterly hopeless and note no women in the line up
    Which Tory leadership candidate is tickling your fancy?
    I fancy Heidi Allen, but unfortunately she doesn't count :(
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714

    Danny565 said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Almost all Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader runoff poll figures now out as below


    Johnson 61% Hunt 33%
    Johnson 57% Gove 34%
    Johnson 61% Javid 30%

    Raab 60% Hunt 30%
    Raab 57% Javid 30%
    Raab 52% Gove 36%

    Gove 45% Hunt 29%
    Gove 44% Javid 31%

    Javid 36% Hunt 35%

    Just waiting on the Boris v Raab decider

    https://www.conservativehome.com/

    So. Most right wing / Brexity candidate wins. No surprise there. I do hope it is Raab.
    No experience of government, except storming out in a strop.
    Which would be fitting credentials.
    Raab utterly hopeless and note no women in the line up
    Which Tory leadership candidate is tickling your fancy?
    I fancy Heidi Allen, but unfortunately she doesn't count :(
    I made her laugh once in the local supermarket. She has a lovely smile, if that counts for anything. ;)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    And the first CHUK candidate to fall is...

    http://twitter.com/TheIndGroup/status/1120740966393090048

    It's all going really well isn't it?

    :)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
    They were meant to take back control from the European Parliament, not the public (who may well have thought it were they who were taking back control.. as if!)
    So you want us to be a direct democracy?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
    In this political climate anything can happen included mps keeping Corbyn out
    But that would be perverse. Abstaining in a VNOC called against May would be bad enough , but do so in respect of such a vote called against a Hard Brexiteer would expose them to ridicule. Very little different to propping up Farage!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    By-election? Did someone say "by-election"? :)
    The Tory MP was sentenced today and now faces the possibility of a recall by election.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
    In this political climate anything can happen included mps keeping Corbyn out
    But that would be perverse. Abstaining in a VNOC called against May would be bad enough , but do so in respect of such a vote called against a Hard Brexiteer would expose them to ridicule. Very little different to propping up Farage!
    I am only repeating their comments (Heidi Allen) this weekend. It may not fit your political ambitions but I am only the messenger
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
    In this political climate anything can happen included mps keeping Corbyn out
    But that would be perverse. Abstaining in a VNOC called against May would be bad enough , but do so in respect of such a vote called against a Hard Brexiteer would expose them to ridicule. Very little different to propping up Farage!
    They may vote against !!!!!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    stodge said:

    nichomar said:



    Good analysis

    Thanks for the kind word.

    I keep coming back to the central question and the impasse around it. If there is no majority for the WA, no majority to leave without a Deal and no majority to revoke we are stuck like the proverbial fly on the metaphorical flypaper. We can't leave and we can't remain.

    This doesn't work for us or for the EU but the latter could, if they so chose, throw us out on October 31st but they won't or seem unable to do that because the economic shock impacts them as well.

    So the only change comes from changing the parliamentary numbers but a Conservative Party polling in the high 20s isn't going to play that game.

    I don't know how this ends though it will.
    Despite the lack of support for the idea the only way out is a second referendum. It should be remain/leave if leave then no deal/ deal. The problem is parliament don’t want no deal on the agenda so where next? We could open up the franchise to include UK citizens who have been out of the UK for more than 15 years (possibly seriously impacted) EU citizens resident in the UK (who are possibly impacted) and 16 - 18 year olds who’s future is at stake. But there are few conservatives that would sign up for this.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Not according to TIGS and others who have refused this weekend to countenance a GE
    Can you really see the TIGs propping up a Hard Brexiteer such as Boris or Raab? That would take some explaining - to say the least.
    In this political climate anything can happen included mps keeping Corbyn out
    But that would be perverse. Abstaining in a VNOC called against May would be bad enough , but do so in respect of such a vote called against a Hard Brexiteer would expose them to ridicule. Very little different to propping up Farage!
    I am only repeating their comments (Heidi Allen) this weekend. It may not fit your political ambitions but I am only the messenger
    Oh I ceased to have political ambitions many years ago.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,536
    edited April 2019
    Deleted - I see dixiedean made the same comment earlier.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    Mr. Sandpit, my stakes are extremely small, though. We're talking pence, rather than pounds.

    But the thought of a 3001 shot coming in is rather nice.

    Bet365 has even bigger discrepancies - got on both Riccardo and Stroll at 750/1 - thanks for the tip!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    .
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
    The PM could have negotiated a deal and parliament waive it through, and not one person could have legitimately complained that the result wasnt respected. It would have al been over a long time ago and we could all have moved on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    That’s not actually true. Even without the Grieve amendment, MPs could still have blocked ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    nichomar said:



    Good analysis

    Thanks for the kind word.

    I keep coming back to the central question and the impasse around it. If there is no majority for the WA, no majority to leave without a Deal and no majority to revoke we are stuck like the proverbial fly on the metaphorical flypaper. We can't leave and we can't remain.

    This doesn't work for us or for the EU but the latter could, if they so chose, throw us out on October 31st but they won't or seem unable to do that because the economic shock impacts them as well.

    So the only change comes from changing the parliamentary numbers but a Conservative Party polling in the high 20s isn't going to play that game.

    I don't know how this ends though it will.
    Despite the lack of support for the idea the only way out is a second referendum. It should be remain/leave if leave then no deal/ deal. The problem is parliament don’t want no deal on the agenda so where next? We could open up the franchise to include UK citizens who have been out of the UK for more than 15 years (possibly seriously impacted) EU citizens resident in the UK (who are possibly impacted) and 16 - 18 year olds who’s future is at stake. But there are few conservatives that would sign up for this.
    But there is no majority for agreeing what the choices in a second referendum should be.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
    They were meant to take back control from the European Parliament, not the public (who may well have thought it were they who were taking back control.. as if!)
    So you want us to be a direct democracy?
    The EU referendum was direct democracy. Parliament asked the public what they wanted to do, and they said LEAVE. It was a binary vote and there should have been no other outcome but for us to have left 2 years after enacting A50. Thats all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    .
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
    The PM could have negotiated a deal and parliament waive it through, and not one person could have legitimately complained that the result wasnt respected. It would have al been over a long time ago and we could all have moved on.
    One Empire, One People, One Leader. Hail Victory!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714
    isam said:

    The PM could have negotiated a deal and parliament waive it through, and not one person could have legitimately complained that the result wasnt respected. It would have al been over a long time ago and we could all have moved on.

    The PM negotiated a deal, and loads of people are saying that deal doesn't respect the result: including the ERG'ers. Which is why they voted against it.

    They would have legitimately complained (in their minds) that the result wasn't respected.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    MPs collectively interfered with the referendum result, when it could have been clean cut. Without Grieve though, they wouldn't have had the opportunity.

    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    That’s not actually true. Even without the Grieve amendment, MPs could still have blocked ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement.
    Look, its happened, they blocked it and went against the will, the spirit, the holy ghost, call it what you want. I hope they get an almighty kicking for it, maybe they will, maybe they wont,
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Both the Farage Ego Party and Change UK will become irrelevant after Brexit .

    Theres no chance either will be a big factor in the next GE so they should enjoy their moment in the sun . Unfortunately Farage minus his ego Party will continue to pollute national discourse and peddle his hate and division .

    When will “after Brexit” be though?
    I think the UK will definitely be out by the end of October . The EU won’t grant any further extensions unless that was for a second vote or election and I can’t see either happening .
    Yeah but it won't all suddenly end then, even if we are 'out'. It's all just starting for real then.

    Brexit is for life, not just for Christmas.
    When the chaos, protests and arguments are still raging in a decade, all eyes will be on Dominic Grieve. Was it really so hard to just let the people decide?
    Why will eyes be on Dominic Grieve more than on (say) Mark Francois? Neither of them voted for May's Brexit.
    Dominic Grieve was behind the move to let MPs have a veto
    You mean our sovereign parliament taking back control?
    They were meant to take back control from the European Parliament, not the public (who may well have thought it were they who were taking back control.. as if!)
    So you want us to be a direct democracy?
    The EU referendum was direct democracy. Parliament asked the public what they wanted to do, and they said LEAVE. It was a binary vote and there should have been no other outcome but for us to have left 2 years after enacting A50. Thats all.
    Why are you so obsessed with leaving? It seems a destination for its own sake what benefits will you personally get? Is it really worth screwing the country for?
This discussion has been closed.