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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs

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  • Sir_GeoffSir_Geoff Posts: 41
    Regarding Crown-in-Parliament, isn't it more the case that the executive cannot repeal legislation passed through parliament into an Act given force by royal assent? That was one of the concerns prompting the Glorious Revolution, with Charles' and James' misuse of the prerogative of indulgence.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,536
    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,714

    isam said:

    I am just giving my opinion, its what people tend to do here, Glad you like it,you must have missed me awfully.

    As for Farage, it would have had nothing to do with him. There would have been no European Elections, no Brexit Party, and no wind in the sails of those who wanted to make a big song and dance about it

    As I say below, Farage's words on May's deal indicate that if it had passed, we'd still have a Brexit Party. The deal is just the start of a process, and there's plenty of ways that another UKIP-style party could interfere with the post-deal negotiations.

    And it's not as if hardcore leavers tend not to require much to get wind in their sails! Most of them seem to shake their fists at the sun each morning. ;)
    There might be a Brexit party but it would have a tiny fraction of the support it is getting now. It certainly wouldn't be enough to worry anyone at elections and Farage would be finished as a politician.

    As it is he currently looks like leading the party which will win the consecutive Euro elections and do perhaps terminal damage to the Tory party.

    For those who actually think that on balance the Tory party is a good thing (although I don't count myself amongst them) surely passing the WA is an absolute necessity now.
    "There might be a Brexit party but it would have a tiny fraction of the support it is getting now."

    I really don't see that. The 'May's deal is a betrayal' line has been said by too many people for too long - and by those (e.g. the ERGers) who many will believe.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    HYUFD said:



    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them

    Surely that is, in the end, a good thing. Even if it means you and I don't get everything we want. What is the point of trying to restore powers back from the EU to our elected representatives if they get diverted to the Executive?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    edited April 2019
    nichomar said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:



    The whole case of the fruitcake Leavers is that the EU is not just some other treaty but the triple-breasted whore of Babylon. You can’t just redeclare it a conventional treaty just because it suits you.

    And the constitution is working just fine. You just don’t like it.

    Well if its just some other treaty then who cares?

    The EU is a Union-in-progress. It's even got Union in the name. Nobody has ever voted for this creeping takeover.

    I don't mind the slightest thing about the idea, but I object hugely to the clandestine nature of this 'democracy'.

    Of course it’s more than a treaty. There’s nothing clandestine about that. Its aims are express.
    Can you produce a quote whereby our leaders have said - we're dismantling our nation state and planning to become part of a European one?
    And there you fall into a chasm between its express aims and your swivel-eyed lunacy about what you assume its secret aims are.
    Ah, I see. My failure is to name the thing.

    So express aims to create a super-state, but everyone keep quiet. What's especially true is that nobody in power should ever say this.

    I'm not sure I like being called swivel-eyed. However I can't think of any way to retaliate that wouldn't demean me.
    You demeaned yourself when you suggested that politicians were dismantling the state and planning to become part of a European one.
    Oh the truth. It's the truth that's annoying you! But don't take my word for what the truth is, just read back on your own words.

    The EU treaties aren't just treaties, and there has always been an agenda to move 'ever closer' behind them. That agenda hasn't really ever been spelled out as far as I'm aware in any of the major EU Nations.
    The peoples are the ones who are to have ever closer union, not the nations. But that distinction is lost on swivel-eyed conspiracists.
    And yet it seems that the process is about the states having ever closer union.
    You should research heaths comments about what the European project was when we joined “the common market” it was never hidden what the direction of travel was. It’s one of those lies which people obsessed by bent bananas like to peddle
    Sorry, yes, I stand corrected. (And williamglenn made a similar comment below)

    There would be a degree of extrapolation there though in that you're both quoting Heath.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no. We had to invent concepts such as the "Crown-In-Parliament" in order to make it work, and the Glorious Revolution only worked because one King replaced another (wrongly IMHO). The Miller case just established that rights granted to Brits should not be withdrawn without Parliamentary approval, it didn't transfer the powers of government to the legislature.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    Never known anyone to celebrate it, it doesn't really have the greatest image does it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no. We had to invent concepts such as the "Crown-In-Parliament" in order to make it work, and the Glorious Revolution only worked because one King replaced another (wrongly IMHO). The Miller case just established that rights granted to Brits should not be withdrawn without Parliamentary approval, it didn't transfer the powers of government to the legislature.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
    Not if Parliament has legislated to legally constrain the powers of the executive whilst the mace was in the room.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:


    We do not live in a direct democracy. Since your side couldn't agree on what Brexit would mean before the referendum, and it was close, I have zero problem with MPs voting on the deal.

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on what the heck it meant.

    Therefore MPs 'interfering' with the 'result' was inevitable.

    If you wanted them not to, then leave agreeing what leave meant before the referendum would have been a really good idea.

    But the you wouldn't have won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The whole case of the fruitcake Leavers is that the EU is not just some other treaty but the triple-breasted whore of Babylon. You can’t just redeclare it a conventional treaty just because it suits you.

    And the constitution is working just fine. You just don’t like it.
    Nope. It’s just a treaty (or series of) that wasn’t working for us any more
    One of today’s fresh new Brexit party candidates compared the EU with Nazi Germany. This is so standard among Brexiteers that no one has commented on this at all. Leavers do not treat this as “just a treaty”.
    I wasn’t aware of those comments. But whoever did that’s an idiot. Does that make you feel better?
    https://twitter.com/lanceforman/status/1105214619419901952?s=21
    I had seen that tweet. I thought he was an idiot when I did and I still do. It’s silly and irrelevant.
    'It's those nutters that are spoiling my sensible Brexit.'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    isam said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    Never known anyone to celebrate it, it doesn't really have the greatest image does it?
    We had a St George's day parade when I was a kid back in Brum. Local groups, churches, scouts etc etc.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Danny565 said:

    isam said:

    I want May's vote to go through (though it seems rather pointless now, as the moment it does she'll be thrown out and replaced by someone who'll rip it up). But saying a vote in parliament on the proposed deal is undemocratic is ridiculous.

    In addition, many leavers voted against the deal, and gave covers for others to do so. Maybe you should be more angry with them for risking the project?
    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero
    "MPs collectively Interfered with the referendum result."

    Hardly. For one thing, anyone voting in the referendum knew that what was being voted on was uncertain and hazy, and had not been agreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2

    The executive got it wrong.
    Nope. It was a classic British fudge.

    We created the Crown-in-Parliament (the Executive) which exercises the Royal Prerogative on behalf of the Crown.

    Over time the scope of the Royal Prerogative has eroded but it is still separate to the legislative authority of Parliament
    To qualify to exercise the power of Crown in Parliament you must command a majority in the HoC. To ensure that remains true we used have the concept of matters of confidence. The FTPA screwed with that. Another reason to thank Dave.
    Yes, but Parliament has not withdrawn its confidence. It, of course, reserves the right to do so
    De facto it has on the govts key policy, in old days the PM would have made the MV itself a confidence issue, but May could not do that. Cameron’s clumsy legislation removed the consequences and set up the constitutional mess we have today.
    Cameron’s legislation was characteristically Ill-thought through and badly drafted

    But Parliament has backed the government in VoNC I thought? Admittedly there have been so many matters of high drama that I may have misremembered!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    Yes Nick lots of people do. And from right across the political spectrum. There were parades and events in many towns and cities today. Just a 10 second search on google showed there were parades today in places as diverse as Nottingham, Luton, Bromsgrove and Newport in Shropshire. I am too busy to be doing any celebrating and it is not exactly my thing anyway but it certainly does seem to have plenty of support.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    I dedicated some meeting minutes as ‘St George’s Day Edition’ 🤷‍♂️
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    No. It would be thoroughly unEnglish to do so.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no. We had to invent concepts such as the "Crown-In-Parliament" in order to make it work, and the Glorious Revolution only worked because one King replaced another (wrongly IMHO). The Miller case just established that rights granted to Brits should not be withdrawn without Parliamentary approval, it didn't transfer the powers of government to the legislature.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
    The rules have changed definitively with the Fixed Term Parliament Act. The government handed over the power to reshuffle the deck to Parliament. The executive has turned into a God of the gaps, with power over ever-diminishing areas of responsibility.

    It’s very interesting actually. I might do a thread header on it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Labour has backed the Extinction Rebellion protesters who have carried out a week of civil disobedience and occupations to highlight the ecological emergency, likening them to the Chartists, suffragettes and anti-apartheid activists.

    Speaking in response to an urgent question in the Commons on Tuesday, the shadow energy minister, Barry Gardiner – who also holds the international trade role – said that alongside the school strikes, the protests organised by Extinction Rebellion were reminiscent of previous memorable struggles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/labour-extinction-rebellion-climate-change
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1120780964232355840

    I can save him a trip. Here is the tape:

    "Why aren't we out?", "we should be out by now", "just get out, now", "they're all the same, except Nigel", "let's get out and send them all packing", "no one listens to us", "when was the last time anyone knocked on my door" etc etc
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2019

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.

    Second edit: I do know the date, though. It is also the day of Shakespeare's birth and death, so three bits of information for the price of one.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    No better illustration of Englishness though perhaps.

    (All national saints days are pretty nonsensical)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,039
    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Should open the bathroom window.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    isam said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    Never known anyone to celebrate it, it doesn't really have the greatest image does it?
    We had a St George's day parade when I was a kid back in Brum. Local groups, churches, scouts etc etc.
    I nearly missed a train due to the taxi to collect me from my late father's house in Bolton being delayed by one. This was about 10 years ago.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Given the rise of the Brexit Party a GE with a hard Brexiteer Tory leader like Boris or Raab would be less of a worry for the Tories than one with May still at the helm anyway, though the DUP would prop up Boris and Raab and a few Leave Labour MPs like Hoey and Field and Mann might back them too until it is confirmed we are leaving the EU. Of course May is unlikely to go until her WA passes anyway unless forced out
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    It is a very common mistake.

    There are people who believe Boudicca and King Arthur were English.

    Here is GK Chesterton making a similar mistake:

    "Before the Roman came to Rye or out to Severn strode,
    The rolling English drunkard made the rolling English road.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162

    HYUFD said:



    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them

    Surely that is, in the end, a good thing. Even if it means you and I don't get everything we want. What is the point of trying to restore powers back from the EU to our elected representatives if they get diverted to the Executive?
    I don't disagree
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Is this not universal?

    After Brexit it might be the only green vegetable left.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    MV4 is on boys!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no. We had to invent concepts such as the "Crown-In-Parliament" in order to make it work, and the Glorious Revolution only worked because one King replaced another (wrongly IMHO). The Miller case just established that rights granted to Brits should not be withdrawn without Parliamentary approval, it didn't transfer the powers of government to the legislature.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
    They aren't as in reality the government only governs on behalf of the Crown and no monarch since the Civil War will directly challenge Parliament
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Given the rise of the Brexit Party a GE with a hard Brexiteer Tory leader like Boris or Raab would be less of a worry for the Tories than one with May still at the helm anyway, though the DUP would prop up Boris and Raab and a few Leave Labour MPs like Hoey and Field and Mann might back them too until it is confirmed we are leaving the EU. Of course May is unlikely to go until her WA passes anyway unless forced out
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    No, if they wanted to do that they would have voted for the WA.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Is this not universal?

    After Brexit it might be the only green vegetable left.
    One of the worst things about the repeated delays to Brexit is that one has to update one’s research on foraging for the time of year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    MV4 is on boys!
    The MV will soon have more sequels than Die Hard
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    MV4 is on boys!
    Shoot me now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
    The rules have changed definitively with the Fixed Term Parliament Act. The government handed over the power to reshuffle the deck to Parliament. The executive has turned into a God of the gaps, with power over ever-diminishing areas of responsibility.

    It’s very interesting actually. I might do a thread header on it.
    The whole point of an unwritten constitution is that it can evolve to meet changed circumstances like the present. I suspect that there will be many further changes over the next years. Ours is not a fossilised Constitution like the USA.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Is this not universal?

    After Brexit it might be the only green vegetable left.
    One of the worst things about the repeated delays to Brexit is that one has to update one’s research on foraging for the time of year.
    You wanna worry. I've had to go through a pile of food stockpiling checking sell by dates are after October.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I missed this earlier. Pete is on a roll. Will it last Biden's entry?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/politics/unh-poll-march-buttigieg-biden-sanders/index.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    Given the rise of the Brexit Party a GE with a hard Brexiteer Tory leader like Boris or Raab would be less of a worry for the Tories than one with May still at the helm anyway, though the DUP would prop up Boris and Raab and a few Leave Labour MPs like Hoey and Field and Mann might back them too until it is confirmed we are leaving the EU. Of course May is unlikely to go until her WA passes anyway unless forced out
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    No, if they wanted to do that they would have voted for the WA.
    A few like John Mann already did, a few more like Hoey might back a hard Brexit Tory leader to get us out of the EU at least
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Is this not universal?

    After Brexit it might be the only green vegetable left.
    One of the worst things about the repeated delays to Brexit is that one has to update one’s research on foraging for the time of year.
    You wanna worry. I've had to go through a pile of food stockpiling checking sell by dates are after October.
    Start with salt.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    Depending on how desperate the Commons becomes to stop Farage/Brexit Party from cleaning up at the EU elections I could actually see MV4 passing! :open_mouth:
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    Foxy said:

    Ours is not a fossilised Constitution like the USA.

    On St George's Days I rather like that quote. Don't agree or disagree. Fun!

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    MV4 is on boys!
    The MV will soon have more sequels than Die Hard
    Star Wars is soon to reach its NINTH episode!!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I would not Dane to disagree.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?

    People who eat asparagus
    Is this not universal?

    After Brexit it might be the only green vegetable left.
    One of the worst things about the repeated delays to Brexit is that one has to update one’s research on foraging for the time of year.
    You wanna worry. I've had to go through a pile of food stockpiling checking sell by dates are after October.
    Stockpiling? Does that require plenty of Oxo cubes? :lol:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:



    Who's angry? It's created the path to Farage being a hero

    "MPs collectively Interferedreed with the EU, and therefore the government and MPs would have to decide on won.
    They absolutely interfered

    Historically the legislature has not needed to approve treaties. We are living the reason why at the moment

    If they had left it to the executive as the constitution is supposed to work we would have signed and been preparing for phase 2
    The executive derives its power and authority from a majority in the House of Commons. No majority, no power.

    The executive got it wrong.
    Technically, the executive derives its power and authority from the Crown. It doesn't need Parliament to govern and frequently governs without it. @Charles is correct. Legislators should legislate, government should govern.
    We decided via the Civil War and Glorious Revor not affirmed that
    Technically, no. We had to invent concepts such as the "Crown-In-Parliament" in order to make it work, and the Glorious Revolution only worked because one King replaced another (wrongly IMHO). The Miller case just established that rights granted to Brits should not be withdrawn without Parliamentary approval, it didn't transfer the powers of government to the legislature.
    Effectively it did, it was the Cooper Letwin Bill and the refusal of Parliament to endorse No Deal and its insistence on demanding an extension of Art 50 which forced May to consider further extension. If the executive has no clear majority in Parliament the 'Crown In Parliament' concept effectively becomes the Crown bows to Parliament in most respects.

    Charles 1st lost the Civil War trying to defend the 'divine right of Kings' and the PM has discovered without a clear majority of MPs behind her there is no 'divine right of May' that can overrule them
    If you're talking effective control, then you might have a point (and you and @AlastairMeeks have correctly given examples). But if you're talking legally and technically, then no. Parliament can parliament all it likes, but the minute that mace leaves the room, they are pointless.
    Not if Parliament has legislated to legally constrain the powers of the executive whilst the mace was in the room.
    ...in which case it operates within the constraints laid down by legislation to which the crown has assented. You can't take the crown out of the loop.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so Corbyn and Labour might be in office but their ability to get any serious legislation through would be limited.

    Could the Brexit party supplant the Conservatives as the leading party of the centre-right after another GE? Maybe but it's hard to see them having enough Commons votes to take the UK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory MPs resign the Whip following the election of a Hard Brexiteer such as Johnson or Raab, it would mean the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    That would mean automatic deselection. Field did not do that despite having already resigned the Labour Whip..Moreover, if 6 or more Tories follow Nick Boles to the Opposition benches , DUP support would no longer suffice to enable a minority Tory Government. That also brings us back to the point raised here yesterday - ie as to whether a new Tory Hardline Brexiteer leader would in fact be appointed PM given the clear lack of a majority in the Commons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I think he has Pict on the wrong guy.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    MV4 is on boys!
    The MV will soon have more sequels than Die Hard
    Star Wars is soon to reach its NINTH episode!!
    A New Hope?

    But would the Speaker allow a fourth iteration now? What’s changed to permit it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    edited April 2019

    I missed this earlier. Pete is on a roll. Will it last Biden's entry?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/politics/unh-poll-march-buttigieg-biden-sanders/index.html

    Sanders clearly ahead on 30%, Buttigieg closing in on Biden in third place on 15% to Biden's 18%, a long way back from there to Warren in 4th place on 5%
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited April 2019

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    So it's me and GK Chesterton versus you. Difficult one to call. Chesterton knew of the existence and date of the Anglo Saxons just as well as you do, and correctly thought that in an informal or poetic context calling pre-Roman inhabitants of what is now England, English was entirely ok. What he didn't know about, as apparently you don't, was dna based population genetics, which currently seems to show that "on average the contemporary East English population derives 38% of its ancestry from Anglo-Saxon migrations".* 38%. Less than half. Less than two fifths. It is the most egregious pedantry to claim that Boudicca cannot properly be called English when she lived in England and is more closely related to the average modern Englishman than the Anglo Saxons were.

    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4735688/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I’m sure there’s a kernow of truth in that: I-ce-ni room for error.

    But I’m stumped on how to pun “logres” which is what I was aiming for!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I would not Dane to disagree.
    We should all Teuton that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    edited April 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    May to put the Withdrawal Agreement before the Commons for another vote in the next 10 days if talks with Labour fail

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6948791/Theresa-quit-breathing-fresh-life-Farage-says-Tory-MP.html

    Depending on how desperate the Commons becomes to stop Farage/Brexit Party from cleaning up at the EU elections I could actually see MV4 passing! :open_mouth:
    It may get a little closer but I actually think the MV could pass on its 5th go once Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands Leave seats start panicking as the Brexit Party tops the poll in their constituencies in the European elections
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    So it's me and GK Chesterton versus you. Difficult one to call. Chesterton knew of the existence and date of the Anglo Saxons just as well as you do, and correctly thought that in an informal or poetic context calling pre-Roman inhabitants of what is now England, English was entirely ok. What he didn't know about, as apparently you don't, was dna based population genetics, which currently seems to show that "on average the contemporary East English population derives 38% of its ancestry from Anglo-Saxon migrations".* 38%. Less than half. Less than two fifths. It is the most egregious pedantry to deny that Boudicca cannot properly be called English when she lived in England and is more closely related to the average modern Englishman than the Anglo Saxons were.

    *https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4735688/
    Too many negatives in the last sentence.
  • NEW THREAD

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I would not Dane to disagree.
    We should all Teuton that.
    This punning contest has been short and Swede.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    I suppose 30-50 Conservative MPs might defect to the Brexit Party but would they actively bring down the Conservative Government and usher in a minority Labour/SNP Government? To those fearing Caracas-on-Thames it's worth noting the Brexit defectors/DUP/LDs/TIG and others would provide a strong blocking minority so CorbynUK out unilaterally.

    If 6-10 Tory the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    That would mean automatic deselection. Field did not do that despite having already resigned the Labour Whip..Moreover, if 6 or more Tories follow Nick Boles to the Opposition benches , DUP support would no longer suffice to enable a minority Tory Government. That also brings us back to the point raised here yesterday - ie as to whether a new Tory Hardline Brexiteer leader would in fact be appointed PM given the clear lack of a majority in the Commons.
    Why should Hoey care? Half her party want her gone anyway, around 5 to 10 Labour MPs are committed hard Brexiteers plus the likes of Austen and Field who are independents anyway now.

    There are 10 DUP MPs, add in the roughly 10 Labour hard Brexit MPs and that should be enough to counteract any Tory diehard Remainers opposing a hard Brexit Tory PM.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Ishmael_Z said:


    So it's me and GK Chesterton versus you.

    I’m fine with you signing up the old anti-Semite & reactionary for your side.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rpjs said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Does anyone except politicians actually celebrate St George's Day, or even know when it is, unprompted? I've never met anyone who mentioned it, but perhaps I move in the wrong circles. Do Kippers meet to celebrate it, while Shinners meet to commemorate the brave dragon?
    The fact that he was a Turk employed by a Croatian immigrant to Italy is problematic in some circles.
    He was from what is now Turkey, but the Turks hadn't got there yet. It's like saying St Alban was English because Verulamium/St Alban's is now in England
    Yes I know that, I'm a fecking ancient historian. And I am also very comfortable with describing St Alban as English.
    Clearly & grossly incorrect.
    Surely the correct response is to say Ishmael's taking the wrong Angle on this?
    I would not Dane to disagree.
    We should all Teuton that.
    This punning contest has been short and Swede.
    It’s Vandalism of the English language.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2019
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    If 6-10 Tory the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    That would mean automatic deselection. Field did not do that despite having already resigned the Labour Whip..Moreover, if 6 or more Tories follow Nick Boles to the Opposition benches , DUP support would no longer suffice to enable a minority Tory Government. That also brings us back to the point raised here yesterday - ie as to whether a new Tory Hardline Brexiteer leader would in fact be appointed PM given the clear lack of a majority in the Commons.
    Why should Hoey care? Half her party want her gone anyway, around 5 to 10 Labour MPs are committed hard Brexiteers plus the likes of Austen and Field who are independents anyway now.

    There are 10 DUP MPs, add in the roughly 10 Labour hard Brexit MPs and that should be enough to counteract any Tory diehard Remainers opposing a hard Brexit Tory PM.
    Field was an Independent at the time of the mid-January VNOC but he still voted with Labour. It is really cloud cuckoo land to think that people like Skinner, Stringer, Hopkins et al are going to support a Tory Government on a VNOC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    If 6-10 Tory the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    That would mean automatic deselection. Field did not do that despite having already resigned the Labour Whip..Moreover, if 6 or more Tories follow Nick Boles to the Opposition benches , DUP support would no longer suffice to enable a minority Tory Government. That also brings us back to the point raised here yesterday - ie as to whether a new Tory Hardline Brexiteer leader would in fact be appointed PM given the clear lack of a majority in the Commons.
    Why should Hoey care? Half her party want her gone anyway, around 5 to 10 Labour MPs are committed hard Brexiteers plus the likes of Austen and Field who are independents anyway now.

    There are 10 DUP MPs, add in the roughly 10 Labour hard Brexit MPs and that should be enough to counteract any Tory diehard Remainers opposing a hard Brexit Tory PM.
    Field was an Independent at the time of the mid-January VNOC but he still voted with Labour. It is really cloud cuckoo land to think that people like Skinner, Stringer, Hopkins et al are going to support a Tory Government on a VNOC.
    They will be supporting a Brexit Government to deliver Brexit, once it is delivered they can then vote it down
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    As HYUFD will point out, if he hasn't already, the European elections tell us very little about the national political scene. In 2009, the Conservatives finished 12 points ahead of Labour but that didn't presage a Conservative landslide in 2010 and for all Labour finished second in 2014, that didn't stop Cameron winning a majority a year later.

    As to whether 2019 will presage an election within a year, it seems unlikely. The Conservatives need a GE like a hole in the head so it won't happen anytime soon even if May departs.

    IF, as has been suggested, the Conservatives choose a "Hard" Brexiteer what then? Will that individual seek to take the UK out of the EU without a Deal - if so, I don't see the parliamentary numbers for that. The WA can't clear the Commons either so the deadlock remains.

    The only way it might be changed is if the composition of Parliament changes but there's no guarantee a GE would have that effect.

    If 6-10 Tory the Government lacked a majority even with continued DUP support. Throw in a possible by election loss at Brecon & Radnor , and survival looks pretty difficult.
    No Leave Labour MP would prop up a Tory PM on a VNOC - indeed Frank Field supported Corbyn in the VNOC last January.
    They might do to get Brexit
    That would mean automatic deselection. Field did not do that despite having already resigned the Labour Whip..Moreover, if 6 or more Tories follow Nick Boles to the Opposition benches , DUP support would no longer suffice to enable a minority Tory Government. That also brings us back to the point raised here yesterday - ie as to whether a new Tory Hardline Brexiteer leader would in fact be appointed PM given the clear lack of a majority in the Commons.
    Why should Hoey care? Half her party want her gone anyway, around 5 to 10 Labour MPs are committed hard Brexiteers plus the likes of Austen and Field who are independents anyway now.

    There are 10 DUP MPs, add in the roughly 10 Labour hard Brexit MPs and that should be enough to counteract any Tory diehard Remainers opposing a hard Brexit Tory PM.
    Field was an Independent at the time of the mid-January VNOC but he still voted with Labour. It is really cloud cuckoo land to think that people like Skinner, Stringer, Hopkins et al are going to support a Tory Government on a VNOC.
    Correct. The idea that Skinner, of all people, would support the Tories in a VONC is ridiculous.

    As is the idea that the DUP will come on board with the WA. They would prefer to remain rather than accept the backstop.
  • Test
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