"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
I like its modernist rejection of the obvious. And it looks like Perdido Street Station.
That is rather beautiful.
I always remember as a kid seeing those Dan Dare strips in the Eagle where there were classic old scenes of London or some other famous landmark but then there was a modern building or addition close by or built into it. The genius of Frank Hampson was he always managed to make the modern addition look like it was an integral part of the original rather than just something bolted on. I feel the same way when I see the press box at Lords Cricket Ground.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
Are you a tax lawyer?
Not really. Like most things I dabble occasionally but I am certainly no specialist.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
The anti-Farage/Brexit vote will be split so many ways we're at risk of losing count. I think there's another novelty anti-Brexit candidate standing and being enthusiastically supported by people on Facebook who don't understand the D'Hondt implications.
The Remain side are going to be bleating so hard about how unfair PR is when they look at the vote totals and seat totals after this election.
"don't understand the D'Hondt implications", "bleating so hard about how unfair PR is" Aren't you contradicting yourself? D'Hondt isn't PR.
? I know STV is close but isn't, I know AV isn't, but I thought D'Hondt was. Explanation please?
d'Hondt is extremely proportional if applied to a sufficiently large area (e.g. the whole country) to enable small parties to get their proportions - Denmark, Sweden and Israel are examples (though the first two do have thresholds to get in). The problem in Britain is that we've chosen to apply it in relatively small regions with only a few seats in each, so you can get say 4% everywhere and never get a single person elected, whereas with a national list you'd get 4% of the seats.
Good point . In France they’ve now gone back to just a national list after ditching the regional list of 2014. The latter helps the bigger parties and means once again voters are going to be left disenfranchised.
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If you think about it, project fear back then and the arguments about the consequences of no deal now are irrelevant to the merits or otherwise of Brexit. If you want to make a major change there is going to be disruption. The real question is whether or not we want to be full participants in the European project or if we want to carp from the sidelines. If you want the latter you'll presumably be willing to put up with some inconvenience to get there.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I haven't completely stopped drinking. But, I've cut it down to about twice a week. I certainly sleep much better. It's had no effect on my weight, as I eat chocolate to compensate.
I like d'Hondt but you need big enough seats to make it work. Electing 8 MEPs is fairly proportional but for 3 it never can be in a multi-party system.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
I doubt that there is a psephologist who would seriously claim that 90% of UKIP's 2014 voters supported the party a year later at the 2015 GE.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If you think about it, project fear back then and the arguments about the consequences of no deal now are irrelevant to the merits or otherwise of Brexit. If you want to make a major change there is going to be disruption. The real question is whether or not we want to be full participants in the European project or if we want to carp from the sidelines. If you want the latter you'll presumably be willing to put up with some inconvenience to get there.
For most people its the practical effects which matter.
Enthusiastic supporters or opponents of various 'projects' tend to be niche groups.
I like d'Hondt but you need big enough seats to make it work. Electing 8 MEPs is fairly proportional but for 3 it never can be in a multi-party system.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
STV is like the Schlezwig Holstein question. 3 people understood it. One died, one went mad, and the third forgot the answer.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
There will be some lamb available but I and most of the others will be on Turkey. I have had lamb once since the New Year and the result was a very painful night. I’ll certainly be having some red wine though. A couple of times a week rather than every day seems ok.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
I doubt that there is a psephologist who would seriously claim that 90% of UKIP's 2014 voters supported the party a year later at the 2015 GE.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
I doubt that there is a psephologist who would seriously claim that 90% of UKIP's 2014 voters supported the party a year later at the 2015 GE.
Well it's a net 90%, isn't it? So it really doesn't matter if they lost some and gained others. My guess would be that 95% of Ukip's voters in 2015 had voted for them in 2014.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I haven't completely stopped drinking. But, I've cut it down to about twice a week. I certainly sleep much better. It's had no effect on my weight, as I eat chocolate to compensate.
About the same. I’ve really not slept any better but the weight loss has surprised me.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
There will be some lamb available but I and most of the others will be on Turkey. I have had lamb once since the New Year and the result was a very painful night. I’ll certainly be having some red wine though. A couple of times a week rather than every day seems ok.
Is it only lamb which has that effect on you ?
Personally I'd rate lamb well behind beef, pork and chicken.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
I doubt that there is a psephologist who would seriously claim that 90% of UKIP's 2014 voters supported the party a year later at the 2015 GE.
Why would you doubt that?
Because turnout at the 2015 GE was 90% higher . Some who abstained in 2014 will have voted UKIP at the GE.
I like d'Hondt but you need big enough seats to make it work. Electing 8 MEPs is fairly proportional but for 3 it never can be in a multi-party system.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
STV is like the Schlezwig Holstein question. 3 people understood it. One died, one went mad, and the third forgot the answer.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
There will be some lamb available but I and most of the others will be on Turkey. I have had lamb once since the New Year and the result was a very painful night. I’ll certainly be having some red wine though. A couple of times a week rather than every day seems ok.
Is it only lamb which has that effect on you ?
Personally I'd rate lamb well behind beef, pork and chicken.
It’s fatty meats generally but lamb is always fatty. Beef and pork are ok so long as I stay away from the fatty bits.
Good news this morning. Have lost 10kg in 5 weeks following my raised sugar levels. Have cut out bread, biscuits, chocolates, all fizzy drinks, stopped snacking and smaller portions
Feel much better and have no problem with eating fruit and veg instead.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
There will be some lamb available but I and most of the others will be on Turkey. I have had lamb once since the New Year and the result was a very painful night. I’ll certainly be having some red wine though. A couple of times a week rather than every day seems ok.
Excellent news Big_G. Well done. Been down the same road myself with blood sugar.
Thank you. I have been surprised how relatively easy it has been but as my wife says I stopped smoking altogether one day 15 years ago and that was pergatory but now I cannot stand the smell of cigarettes
Congrats Mr G! I am always inspired by such stories. 10kg in 5 weeks is significant, and implies major calorie reduction, did you do the “Blood Sugar Diet”?
Thank you. My diet cut out bread, cakes, biscuits, chocolate, all fizzy drinks and included reduced portions. No snacking and just tea, coffee and water to drink, though I have had a couple of glasses of red wine. I am fortunate I like all fruits and vegetables and it has not been too difficult. Certainly my diabetes sugar levels were rising and the additional weight brings other problems with blood pressure, my copd , and arthritis so losing weight was no longer optional but the difference in my health in just 5 weeks is amazing with further to go, but of course this is now a permanent change to my diet as going back to my old ways would be very unwise
I have lost 9kg since the beginning of January and my health scares. I aim to lose another 6kg yet which will probably take another couple of months. Driven by more exercise, less fatty meats, less alcohol. It’s a lifestyle change and like you I can’t go back. I do feel better for it, I suppose.
That 'I suppose' is ever so wistful.
I do miss the roast lamb (and the half bottle of red wine I was averaging). But I took good health for granted for too long.
I am cooking Welsh leg of lamb tomorrow and will have a glass of red, so it is not all pain but the plates will have smaller portions
There will be some lamb available but I and most of the others will be on Turkey. I have had lamb once since the New Year and the result was a very painful night. I’ll certainly be having some red wine though. A couple of times a week rather than every day seems ok.
Is it only lamb which has that effect on you ?
Personally I'd rate lamb well behind beef, pork and chicken.
It’s fatty meats generally but lamb is always fatty. Beef and pork are ok so long as I stay away from the fatty bits.
An interesting, if not entirely convincing lead. Neither party is really prepared to face the implications of its changing support base for its approach, offer, and policies, and the Tories seem particularly unprepared. Not least because many of the leavers who tend to become Tory MPs are very different in motivation from most of the voters who are leavers. Peddling cultural war to working class voters won't be as easy here as it is in the US, without the religious dimension.
oupled with an absence of tactical voting) so the Tories would be volunteering for a long spell in opposition. Which to be fair given Brexit may well be inevitable now anyway.
It may take a Brexit Party victory in the European elections as Yougov suggests to finally wake you up
But there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election. UKIP's performance at the 2015 election - a big increase in vote share though it was - fell well short of what it managed at the 2014 EU elections. Much of that support is fleeting and based on protest - the LibDems and Greens experience surges of support in a similar way. Regardless of what happens on the Brexit front, I see no way that the Brexit Party will be seen as a seious contender for government at the next General Election.
4.3m at the Euros and 3.9m at the GE. Quite good vote retention I'd say if the Euro's are just a protest
But a much higher turnout at the GE.
"...there are very many people who are prepared to vote for Farage or UKIP at an election which they consider pretty inconsequential who would not consider them at all at a General Election."
400,000 is a lot of people, but 90% retention doesn't really support your point in my opinion.
UKIP polled 26.6% in 2014 EU elections compared with 12.6% less than a year later at the 2015 GE.
I blatantly obviously know that. Your point was that people who voted for them in the Euros wouldn't in a GE, I suggest that 90% of them doing so is good retention
I doubt that there is a psephologist who would seriously claim that 90% of UKIP's 2014 voters supported the party a year later at the 2015 GE.
Why would you doubt that?
Some who voted for them at the GE would not have voted for them at the EE.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
Personally I like the Holyrood system of PR.
Hmph. Possibly, but it confuses me. I actually like the party list system, and it can be made open not closed, but in these days of EUROPE=BAAAAADD!! I don't think anybody's listening...
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
In an alternate universe we would have left and a general election campaign would be ongoing with Labour in total turmoil.
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
The naive method seems to be assigning seats such that the sum of the residuals between percent of votes received and percent of seats allocated is minimised. Is there some reason that's not a good option?
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
In an alternate universe we would have left and a general election campaign would be ongoing with Labour in total turmoil.
Is that the one where Jennifer Lawrence just won’t leave me alone as well?
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
It’s “collapsed” somewhat less here than in most of the EU. Even smug gits like me who predicted the effects of Brexit would be massively less than was being claimed are surprised. Our politicians have done all in their power to maximise the damage by taking uncertainty to completely unnecessary levels and, well, nothing.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
It’s “collapsed” somewhat less here than in most of the EU. Even smug gits like me who predicted the effects of Brexit would be massively less than was being claimed are surprised. Our politicians have done all in their power to maximise the damage by taking uncertainty to completely unnecessary levels and, well, nothing.
I was expecting a bit of disruption but the free market is very good at solving short term problems like this and adjusting to changes in the situation. The bad news is it is also very good at responding to apparently fairly small differences in competitiveness, so in the long run the smaller market represented by the UK is bound to lose out compared to the bigger one on the continent.
I like d'Hondt but you need big enough seats to make it work. Electing 8 MEPs is fairly proportional but for 3 it never can be in a multi-party system.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
STV is like the Schlezwig Holstein question. 3 people understood it. One died, one went mad, and the third forgot the answer.
Wasn't it finally settled by a referendum?
We were given the choice in 2011 between first past the post and an even less proportional electoral system called AV whose sole intention/merit was to give more seats to middle of the road/centrist parties like the Lib Dems who were most people's second choice but rarely their first. As only the Lib Dems would really have benefited from it AV was lost.
We have never had a referendum on choosing PR - so we never rejected it.
As for STV it seems to work perfectly fine in Ireland and has for a century - not forgetting the UK imposed it on Ireland to increase the number of non Sinn Fein seats won in the 1920 Irish local elections. Now its used for Scottish elections.
It preserves the constituency link and allows voters to pick and rank candidates not parties. It also - as Ireland proves - mean interesting characters and individuals get elected rather than whipped fodder.
You have got to love the Healy Rae brothers who represent Kerry as independents! STV - bring it on!
MEPs retiring: David Campbell Bannerman (East/born 1960, served as MEP 2009-19), Jacqueline Foster (North West/1947; 1999-2004, 2009-19), Kay Swinburne (Wales/1967; 2009-19)
2 of their 2014 MEPs have switched to ChUKA: Richard Ashworth, Julie Girling,
I like d'Hondt but you need big enough seats to make it work. Electing 8 MEPs is fairly proportional but for 3 it never can be in a multi-party system.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
STV is like the Schlezwig Holstein question. 3 people understood it. One died, one went mad, and the third forgot the answer.
Wasn't it finally settled by a referendum?
We were given the choice in 2011 between first past the post and an even less proportional electoral system called AV whose sole intention/merit was to give more seats to middle of the road/centrist parties like the Lib Dems who were most people's second choice but rarely their first. As only the Lib Dems would really have benefited from it AV was lost.
We have never had a referendum on choosing PR - so we never rejected it.
As for STV it seems to work perfectly fine in Ireland and has for a century - not forgetting the UK imposed it on Ireland to increase the number of non Sinn Fein seats won in the 1920 Irish local elections. Now its used for Scottish elections.
It preserves the constituency link and allows voters to pick and rank candidates not parties. It also - as Ireland proves - mean interesting characters and individuals get elected rather than whipped fodder.
You have got to love the Healy Rae brothers who represent Kerry as independents! STV - bring it on!
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
The naive method seems to be assigning seats such that the sum of the residuals between percent of votes received and percent of seats allocated is minimised. Is there some reason that's not a good option?
There isn't, but that point doesn't answer my questions.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
It’s “collapsed” somewhat less here than in most of the EU. Even smug gits like me who predicted the effects of Brexit would be massively less than was being claimed are surprised. Our politicians have done all in their power to maximise the damage by taking uncertainty to completely unnecessary levels and, well, nothing.
Year on Year growth at the end of the March quarter will be 1.7 - 1.9%, which is in line with the average since 2000.
Mr. Divvie, it's certainly outrageous, but I think we should have the widest possible terms of free speech for comedy (although I've got to say the joke sounds humourless). After all, it's stand-up, it's not like he's trying to get elected.
All this talk of weight loss is most annoying, I must say.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
When everyone who can puts their wealth beyond reach what do they think will happen to the country?
There is a reason why economists predict a Corbyn Labour victory would do more harm than Brexit
Which economists are they?
Presumably the economists who didn't forecast an immediate year long recession after a Leave vote.
Its an interesting question as to how much the failure of all the Project Fear predictions from 'immediate year long recessions' via 'refugee camps at Dover' to 'no strawberries for Wimbledon' has embolded the No Dealers.
If the No Dealers really wanted to test Project Fear perhaps they should have voted for Brexit.
There's no Project Fear related to May's Deal - rather the opposite as a spending and investment boost has been promised with it.
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
And looks ever more absurd with every economic statistic that comes out. Employment continues to rise, ditto real wages, inflation static, growth modest but above expectations, the mixed blessing of foreign investment at an all time high. We should have left by now and yet there’s no sign of the threatened consequences at a macro level at all.
Business capital investment has collapsed. My theory is that businesses have recruited labour on a pro tem basis as our employment laws are very flexible.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
Perhaps you could put a number to 'collapsed' ?
No answer ?
Well this is what the ONS says:
' Between 2017 and 2018, business investment fell by 0.4%, while GFCF grew by 0.2%. '
To put that 0.4% fall into comparison business investment dropped by 20% from 2008 to 2009 and there were other annual falls in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008.
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
The naive method seems to be assigning seats such that the sum of the residuals between percent of votes received and percent of seats allocated is minimised. Is there some reason that's not a good option?
There isn't, but that point doesn't answer my questions.
Pause.
You can hate me now...
The Northern Ireland Euro seat, which returns only 3 members would have been one of the worst affected by D'Hondt's. Because of the provinces problematic politics it wouldn't have gone down well if a skewed result occurred, so the government chose to use STV instead and in 2014 three different parties returned MEPs. STV also allows voters to choose the person rather than the party. In the rest of the UK we're stuck with Party Lists and D'Hondt.
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
The naive method seems to be assigning seats such that the sum of the residuals between percent of votes received and percent of seats allocated is minimised. Is there some reason that's not a good option?
There isn't, but that point doesn't answer my questions.
Pause.
You can hate me now...
The Northern Ireland Euro seat, which returns only 3 members would have been one of the worst affected by D'Hondt's. Because of the provinces problematic politics it wouldn't have gone down well if a skewed result occurred, so the government chose to use STV instead and in 2014 three different parties returned MEPs. STV also allows voters to choose the person rather than the party. In the rest of the UK we're stuck with Party Lists and D'Hondt.
I rather cynically thought that the UK used STV for the Northern Ireland constutuency because the Republic used it for its three constutuencies
"The D'Hondt method or the Jefferson method is a highest averages method for allocating seats, and is thus a type of party-list proportional representation. ... Empirical studies show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods." So, depends on how proportional you want as to whether you consider it as true PR.
Fair point. So we are left with three questions. How proportional do we need them to be? How proportional is D'Hondt? How proportional are the alternatives?
The naive method seems to be assigning seats such that the sum of the residuals between percent of votes received and percent of seats allocated is minimised. Is there some reason that's not a good option?
There isn't, but that point doesn't answer my questions.
Pause.
You can hate me now...
The Northern Ireland Euro seat, which returns only 3 members would have been one of the worst affected by D'Hondt's. Because of the provinces problematic politics it wouldn't have gone down well if a skewed result occurred, so the government chose to use STV instead and in 2014 three different parties returned MEPs. STV also allows voters to choose the person rather than the party. In the rest of the UK we're stuck with Party Lists and D'Hondt.
I rather cynically thought that the UK used STV for the Northern Ireland constutuency because the Republic used it for its three constutuencies
NI also uses STV for its local elections - its only for Westminster it uses first past the post.
STV was of course introduced in Ireland in the first place to ensure the Unionists won more seats!
IMO, turkey is the pineapple pizza of meats....for those that drink boxed wine.
You seem to have this thing about boxed wine. Given that my father, who is a serious oenophile with a cellar that makes me jealous, keeps a box of wine for times how only wants a glass I suspect it is snobbery rather than taste on your side
Incidentally, I think all of us on here are really out of touch. The climate change demonstration that seems to be winding up now is the big news. But we are all more interested in Brexit.
All this talk of weight loss is most annoying, I must say.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
Please do not get annoyed.
I am facing serious problems with diabetes and other health issues without weight loss, and I can well afford to lose a few stones which I am on my way to doing so. My energy and general health is improving markedly and there is no way back to my old ways of eating as if I was in denial of my diabetes
It is not something I want to sound virtuous on and everyone faces their own health issues in their own way
Mr. Recidivist, not so sure about that, to be honest. Whilst PB can be out of touch, the fact is the UK/EU situation is *the* political story of the current time.
On health: some fudge arrived for me today. Can confirm coffee flavoured fudge is delicious.
Incidentally, I think all of us on here are really out of touch. The climate change demonstration that seems to be winding up now is the big news. But we are all more interested in Brexit.
The problem I have with the demonstrations is that even if we did all the things they ask, unless it is matched in the US, Russia, China and many other parts of the world it is not going to cut through as much as those at the demonstration hope it will. They would have been better demonstrating outside these country's embassies. As for Emma Thompson flying here to show her correctness is just a perfect example of the rich and elite's hypocrisy
Furthermore, they do not have the right to stop anyone going about their legitimate business
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
Incidentally, I think all of us on here are really out of touch. The climate change demonstration that seems to be winding up now is the big news. But we are all more interested in Brexit.
Its big news because it is happening in London and solely affecting Londoners.
Had there been sit down protests blocking Bolton or Hull city centres would there be as much coverage?
Of course apart from 'things must be changed' or 'we must work together to deliver change' from a lot of very posh sounding people what exactly are their practical suggestions to change things that will have some impact globally? And how will they get the 99% of the planet that isn't British to change - Mrs May can't even deliver Brexit?
To quote David Starkey on LBC earlier this week in his usual style - it just seems to be an a lot of 'ultra indulgent upper middle class w**k'! Something to think about as they drive home from the station to their nice homes in the shires - how can we engage more working class people and make it relevant to people who can't afford to protest for 5 days as they have to work to pay the rent and afford to eat?
W.R.T. a Peterborough by-election, if the Brexit Party top the Euro poll, then I think bandwagon effect would make them favourites.
I don't think so myself. At a Westminster by-election the various Brexit parties won't do as well as at the Euro elections, and Con and Lab will probably remain in the top two positions.
All this talk of weight loss is most annoying, I must say.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
Please do not get annoyed.
I am facing serious problems with diabetes and other health issues without weight loss, and I can well afford to lose a few stones which I am on my way to doing so. My energy and general health is improving markedly and there is no way back to my old ways of eating as if I was in denial of my diabetes
It is not something I want to sound virtuous on and everyone faces their own health issues in their own way
Have a lovely time tonight - best wishes
I am not annoyed with you. Quite the contrary. I am delighted that your health is improving. I just wish my own efforts were as successful.
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
It has never quite been explained how social media includling facebook delivered a leave vote - when the demograhpic least likely to use either were the mostly heavily leave and vice versa? Decades of being ignored by the London based London obsessed media and politicians - long before facebook appeared - and the first chance to cast a vote that counted when you have lived in a safe seat most of your life was a bigger factor.
It still surprises nearly three years on that there is little understanding of why leave won or why Corbyn is so attractive to many - it wasn't Putin and it wasn't facebook.
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
It has never quite been explained how social media includling facebook delivered a leave vote - when the demograhpic least likely to use either were the mostly heavily leave and vice versa? Decades of being ignored by the London based London obsessed media and politicians - long before facebook appeared - and the first chance to cast a vote that counted when you have lived in a safe seat most of your life was a bigger factor.
It still surprises nearly three years on that there is little understanding of why leave won or why Corbyn is so attractive to many - it wasn't Putin and it wasn't facebook.
Of course nothing much has changed.
Don't Leave voters have Facebook on their phones or PCs? Or do they not have phones?
W.R.T. a Peterborough by-election, if the Brexit Party top the Euro poll, then I think bandwagon effect would make them favourites.
I don't think so myself. At a Westminster by-election the various Brexit parties won't do as well as at the Euro elections, and Con and Lab will probably remain in the top two positions.
Farage has a long record of his parties not performing in first past the post elections. Remember Peterborough has been a right marginal for years and both LAB and CON will have excellent data.
Upminster Bridge - The least used Underground station on the District Line, Nazi imagery, phone boxes with no phones and one of the least impressive Bridges in the world?
All this talk of weight loss is most annoying, I must say.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
Please do not get annoyed.
I am facing serious problems with diabetes and other health issues without weight loss, and I can well afford to lose a few stones which I am on my way to doing so. My energy and general health is improving markedly and there is no way back to my old ways of eating as if I was in denial of my diabetes
It is not something I want to sound virtuous on and everyone faces their own health issues in their own way
Have a lovely time tonight - best wishes
I am not annoyed with you. Quite the contrary. I am delighted that your health is improving. I just wish my own efforts were as successful.
Ii is not easy but to be honest I am finding it easier than when I stopped smoking 15 years ago and went cold turkey. It was horrendous but now I cannot stand cigarette smoke
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
I do not know enough to say whether she’s right or wrong but don’t all parties indulge in targeting “vulnerable” (aka thick) voters with abject lies and misrepresentation. I give you “24 hours to save the NHS” as an example. Or “this manifesto is fully costed”.
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
All this talk of weight loss is most annoying, I must say.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
Please do not get annoyed.
I am facing serious problems with diabetes and other health issues without weight loss, and I can well afford to lose a few stones which I am on my way to doing so. My energy and general health is improving markedly and there is no way back to my old ways of eating as if I was in denial of my diabetes
It is not something I want to sound virtuous on and everyone faces their own health issues in their own way
Have a lovely time tonight - best wishes
I am not annoyed with you. Quite the contrary. I am delighted that your health is improving. I just wish my own efforts were as successful.
I've found portions are helpful - but that does require discipline. Cutting down a bit of the carb intake each day might do wonders.
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
A large hoard of cash has been found at the home of Sudan's ousted president Omar al-Bashir and he is now being investigated for money laundering, prosecutors say.
How much you ask...a few grand....a few hundred grands perhaps ...£100 million.
The window cleaner must charge a fortune to need to have that much cash on hand
Comments
I always remember as a kid seeing those Dan Dare strips in the Eagle where there were classic old scenes of London or some other famous landmark but then there was a modern building or addition close by or built into it. The genius of Frank Hampson was he always managed to make the modern addition look like it was an integral part of the original rather than just something bolted on. I feel the same way when I see the press box at Lords Cricket Ground.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2019/04/people-s-vote-shows-you-should-fight-what-you-believe-not-what-seems
Take home message is vote for what you want.
Not really. Like most things I dabble occasionally but I am certainly no specialist.
Wayne Hennessey 'desperate' to learn about Nazis - Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/47996638
Project Fear Mk II is about No Deal.
I just can't get my head around STV and this notion of surplus votes. Plus it takes a week just to have a declaration.
Enthusiastic supporters or opponents of various 'projects' tend to be niche groups.
About the same. I’ve really not slept any better but the weight loss has surprised me.
Personally I'd rate lamb well behind beef, pork and chicken.
The next big move will be into AI, machine learning etc. which will create significant changes in our economy and employment.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1119590791171563521
We have never had a referendum on choosing PR - so we never rejected it.
As for STV it seems to work perfectly fine in Ireland and has for a century - not forgetting the UK imposed it on Ireland to increase the number of non Sinn Fein seats won in the 1920 Irish local elections. Now its used for Scottish elections.
It preserves the constituency link and allows voters to pick and rank candidates not parties. It also - as Ireland proves - mean interesting characters and individuals get elected rather than whipped fodder.
You have got to love the Healy Rae brothers who represent Kerry as independents! STV - bring it on!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3r8IBlVtys&t=49s
Johnny Mercer"
(£) https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/why-i-was-wrong-to-call-for-roger-scruton-to-be-sacked/
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/04/exclusive-the-full-list-of-conservative-mep-candidates.html
MEPs re-standing: 15
MEPs retiring: David Campbell Bannerman (East/born 1960, served as MEP 2009-19), Jacqueline Foster (North West/1947; 1999-2004, 2009-19), Kay Swinburne (Wales/1967; 2009-19)
2 of their 2014 MEPs have switched to ChUKA: Richard Ashworth, Julie Girling,
Pause.
You can hate me now...
Man walks in to a sandwich shop: "Can I have a turkey sandwich please?"
"Sorry, we've got no turkey."
"Can I have chicken then?"
"If we'd had chicken I would have given you turkey."
Turkey is probably my least favourite meat.
.....
These are violent misogynists, and clearly going for that electoral market.
I gave up bread three weeks ago. I don’t eat cakes, fizzy drinks or chocolate. I eat meat rarely: once or twice a week, max. I do, I confess, like my pasta. And my alcohol intake is abstemious to the point of asceticism. Tonight I am going out for dinner prior to seeing The Fiddler on the Roof and will treat myself to a pre-theatre Negroni but the last time I had any sort of alcohol was mid-March.
And I do a fair amount of gentle exercise in the garden.
Why am I not as thin as a rake? Or at least a bit thinner than now? Most unfair.
The weather is quite glorious! Long may it continue.
Well this is what the ONS says:
' Between 2017 and 2018, business investment fell by 0.4%, while GFCF grew by 0.2%. '
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/octobertodecember2018revisedresults
To put that 0.4% fall into comparison business investment dropped by 20% from 2008 to 2009 and there were other annual falls in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008.
In the rest of the UK we're stuck with Party Lists and D'Hondt.
I note most people reported that list as having only two members which is a little more realistic than a UKIP sweep in Scotland...
STV was of course introduced in Ireland in the first place to ensure the Unionists won more seats!
I am facing serious problems with diabetes and other health issues without weight loss, and I can well afford to lose a few stones which I am on my way to doing so. My energy and general health is improving markedly and there is no way back to my old ways of eating as if I was in denial of my diabetes
It is not something I want to sound virtuous on and everyone faces their own health issues in their own way
Have a lovely time tonight - best wishes
On health: some fudge arrived for me today. Can confirm coffee flavoured fudge is delicious.
Furthermore, they do not have the right to stop anyone going about their legitimate business
In case you missed Carole Cadwalladr's Ted talk earlier in the week (as I did).
In an unmissable talk, journalist Carole Cadwalladr digs into one of the most perplexing events in recent times: the UK's super-close 2016 vote to leave the European Union. Tracking the result to a barrage of misleading Facebook ads targeted at vulnerable Brexit swing voters -- and linking the same players and tactics to the 2016 US presidential election -- Cadwalladr calls out the "gods of Silicon Valley" for being on the wrong side of history and asks: Are free and fair elections a thing of the past?
https://www.ted.com/talks/carole_cadwalladr_facebook_s_role_in_brexit_and_the_threat_to_democracy
Had there been sit down protests blocking Bolton or Hull city centres would there be as much coverage?
Of course apart from 'things must be changed' or 'we must work together to deliver change' from a lot of very posh sounding people what exactly are their practical suggestions to change things that will have some impact globally? And how will they get the 99% of the planet that isn't British to change - Mrs May can't even deliver Brexit?
To quote David Starkey on LBC earlier this week in his usual style - it just seems to be an a lot of 'ultra indulgent upper middle class w**k'! Something to think about as they drive home from the station to their nice homes in the shires - how can we engage more working class people and make it relevant to people who can't afford to protest for 5 days as they have to work to pay the rent and afford to eat?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1lIRW6Azt8
It still surprises nearly three years on that there is little understanding of why leave won or why Corbyn is so attractive to many - it wasn't Putin and it wasn't facebook.
Of course nothing much has changed.
(The fish and chip shop is one and a half miles away.)
https://youtu.be/21LVdnStd_4
Others from all parties are available.
How much you ask...a few grand....a few hundred grands perhaps ...£100 million.
The window cleaner must charge a fortune to need to have that much cash on hand