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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their w

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited April 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their way

Brexit: Tories push to unseat ‘biased’ Speaker Bercow.https://t.co/QG9agkORvI pic.twitter.com/K86nRxoXJT

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Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Afternoon all :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Not first...like the tories in the euro elections.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    Not a chance, sadly, so there's no point attempting it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Fourth :(
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Theres no one year grace on this though so they might think it worth it just to embarrass him. He is an enormous twat after all
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    FPT, I'm not expecting the Lib Dems to recover the losses they sustained in 2011, but I would expect them to recover the losses of 2015, and thus get back to the 2011 position (taking into account boundary changes, seat reductions),

    WRT the Tories, I expect a fair chunk of the 12-14% Brexit vote to go their way in the locals, which should get them closer to 30% than 25% in terms of NEV. Labour will probably finish up a couple of per cent ahead of them, say 31% to 29%.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,572
    Sean_F said:

    Not a chance, sadly, so there's no point attempting it.

    Indeed. Completely pointless. If he wasnt embarrassed enough to go over the bullying scandal there is no way he will go over something as debatable and tenuous as political bias. This is simply a form of virtue signalling.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    Not if he isn't ennobled. Make him sit as a backbencher
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    dyedwoolie said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    Not if he isn't ennobled. Make him sit as a backbencher
    Will he sit with labour or TIG?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    dyedwoolie said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    Not if he isn't ennobled. Make him sit as a backbencher
    Thought he couldn't do so after being Speaker? And, anyway, he would presumably sit as a disgruntled Independent.
    There is a majority of 4.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019
    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dixiedean said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    Not if he isn't ennobled. Make him sit as a backbencher
    Thought he couldn't do so after being Speaker? And, anyway, he would presumably sit as a disgruntled Independent.
    There is a majority of 4.
    New speaker wont be a Tory so no change to the Maths
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    This could be hilarious. Last time James Duddridge was behind it, tabled a motion, and went around the media saying that there would be 200 signatures on it after the weekend, and Bercow would be gone within days.

    He got 5.

    Including his own.

    I reckon this will only serve to show how few people are prepared to sign such a motion, and will simply strengthen Bercow's position.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited April 2019
    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    It needs some support, YouGov had them on 29% today. The poll was also very remain and labour in the EP figures and referendum intention it feels a little off but I think the Tories are headed for regular mid 20 polls as it goes
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    UKIP are a cancer.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,900
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    FPT, I'm not expecting the Lib Dems to recover the losses they sustained in 2011, but I would expect them to recover the losses of 2015, and thus get back to the 2011 position (taking into account boundary changes, seat reductions),

    WRT the Tories, I expect a fair chunk of the 12-14% Brexit vote to go their way in the locals, which should get them closer to 30% than 25% in terms of NEV. Labour will probably finish up a couple of per cent ahead of them, say 31% to 29%.
    I think it may be more than a simple reversion to 2011. The Conservatives made small gains but the main churn was between Labour and the LDs. The 2007 elections were likewise very good for the Conservatives with 930 gains and losses for both Labour and the LDs.

    The NEV for 2011 was CON 38 LAB 37 LD 16 - I haven't seen an NEV for the equivalent seats in 2015 but as the Conservatives won the GE 38-31 we can assume a similar if not larger Conservative leas in the local seats.

    If the Conservatives are down to 30% or below that's a huge fall. and this will be their worst performance at this set of elections since 1995. As you say, some Brexit supporters may well vote Conservtive at local elections just as some CUK supporters might vote LD.

    So a split of CON 30 LAB 32 would represent a swing to Labour of 1.5% on 2011 so that would mean Conservatives losing both the 2011 and 2015 gains and seeing some of the 2007 gains eroded. On that basis, an estimation of 750-1000 losses looks possible.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Crispin Blunt has turned into a vile nutjob . And once again the Leave Tories just trying to find someone else to blame for their lack of a plan .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited April 2019
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    UKIP are a cancer.
    I am surprised they didnt go with the reason he was kicked of paetron or twitter (in the end). Maybe that is to come.

    The count danulka bloke seems far worse / even less suitable for public office.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    But he is to remainers what Steve Baker is to leavers - a little unhinged perhaps but a symbol of the cause. Talismanic even. Sends a very powerful signal.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Libel/defamation trial alert !

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1118892029457719298
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited April 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    UKIP are a cancer.
    I am surprised they didnt go with the reason he was kicked of paetron or twitter (in the end). Maybe that is to come.

    The count danulka bloke seems far worse / even less suitable for public office.
    Is Meechan running ? Didn't see him on the Scottish list...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    stodge said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    FPT, I'm not expecting the Lib Dems to recover the losses they sustained in 2011, but I would expect them to recover the losses of 2015, and thus get back to the 2011 position (taking into account boundary changes, seat reductions),

    WRT the Tories, I expect a fair chunk of the 12-14% Brexit vote to go their way in the locals, which should get them closer to 30% than 25% in terms of NEV. Labour will probably finish up a couple of per cent ahead of them, say 31% to 29%.
    I think it may be more than a simple reversion to 2011. The Conservatives made small gains but the main churn was between Labour and the LDs. The 2007 elections were likewise very good for the Conservatives with 930 gains and losses for both Labour and the LDs.

    The NEV for 2011 was CON 38 LAB 37 LD 16 - I haven't seen an NEV for the equivalent seats in 2015 but as the Conservatives won the GE 38-31 we can assume a similar if not larger Conservative leas in the local seats.

    If the Conservatives are down to 30% or below that's a huge fall. and this will be their worst performance at this set of elections since 1995. As you say, some Brexit supporters may well vote Conservtive at local elections just as some CUK supporters might vote LD.

    So a split of CON 30 LAB 32 would represent a swing to Labour of 1.5% on 2011 so that would mean Conservatives losing both the 2011 and 2015 gains and seeing some of the 2007 gains eroded. On that basis, an estimation of 750-1000 losses looks possible.
    I think NEV for Con - Lab was 35 - 29 in 2015. And, I'm in the same ballpark for overall Conservative losses.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    You mean the arogant Adonis might actually try to get elected to something rather than just lording over the rest of us, because of his superior intelligence.

    Never going to happen.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited April 2019
    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    UKIP are a cancer.
    I am surprised they didnt go with the reason he was kicked of paetron or twitter (in the end). Maybe that is to come.

    The count danulka bloke seems far worse / even less suitable for public office.
    Is Meechan running ? Didn't see him on the Scottish list...
    That is what is reported in telegraph and itv news.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    UKIP are a cancer.
    I am surprised they didnt go with the reason he was kicked of paetron or twitter (in the end). Maybe that is to come.

    The count danulka bloke seems far worse / even less suitable for public office.
    Is Meechan running ? Didn't see him on the Scottish list...
    That is what is reported in telegraph and itv news.
    Not in this lot:

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/european-elections-2019-candidates-mep-who-standing-eu-vote-full-list/

    Mike "Right" Hookem is in there though again :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    dixiedean said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    Not if he isn't ennobled. Make him sit as a backbencher
    Thought he couldn't do so after being Speaker? And, anyway, he would presumably sit as a disgruntled Independent.
    There is a majority of 4.
    Yep. I see the plan - Cons boot him out and then expect him to vote with them on anything and everything.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    Looks a bit like Corbyn in TSE's shoes...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    Will the Tories finish behind Mebyon Kernow in the South West? IIRC, didn't that happen to Labour in one election?
  • JackJackJackJack Posts: 98
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Jack, Mordaunt would be the best choice.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SandyRentool said:

    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    Will the Tories finish behind Mebyon Kernow in the South West? IIRC, didn't that happen to Labour in one election?
    Euros 2009 in Cornwall not the whole SW
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    A Kipper in a Kipper Tie. How appropriate.

    He also appears to be the Swindon and District Pocket Billiards champion.

    Sweet dog though.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    I think Labour is placing sitting MEPs at the top of all its regional lists, and pretty much all incumbents seem to be offering themselves for re-election.

    So the fact that Adonis is only no 2 is not surprising - the interest in this is not his position on the list but the fact that Labour has selected him at all. This could not have happened without the acquiescence of the leadership.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    That is one nasty looking dog.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    dyedwoolie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    Will the Tories finish behind Mebyon Kernow in the South West? IIRC, didn't that happen to Labour in one election?
    Euros 2009 in Cornwall not the whole SW
    Thanks. So that's the benchmark for Conservative dismality.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    SandyRentool said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    SandyRentool said:

    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    Will the Tories finish behind Mebyon Kernow in the South West? IIRC, didn't that happen to Labour in one election?
    Euros 2009 in Cornwall not the whole SW
    Thanks. So that's the benchmark for Conservative dismality.
    Yes, 6th in Cornwall is the target
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Betting Post:

    Crawford vs Khan will likely be another mismatch for Amir. Crawford is 1.1 on BF which is fair enough but perhaps to back him (Crawford) to win in rds 4-6 (currently 3.25) is a sensible bet. Amir is fast of that there is no doubt and can happily skip around Crawford for a few rounds. But then, sadly, he will likely tire and make a mistake, let his head bob up, and get sparked out.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Farage, Adonis - can we persuade Piers Morgan and Jeremy Clarkson to be MEPs too?

    Then have the Home Secretary revoke their citizenship whilst in Brussels. Job done.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Using an Early Day Motion for this is a bit chocolate fireguard. And announcing it when Parliament is in recess and MPs are having a much-needed break isn't very promising either. Won't happen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Palmer, that may be over-generous. If nothing else, a chocolate fireguard would be tasty.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    There's a fabulously named councillor standing for re-election in the Liverpool City Council elections next month... Anna Key!

    (From another PB)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    edited April 2019
    There's some real monsters in the world.

    James from Busted spotted polishing off a 'Hawaiian Aloha' burger at the Lord Nelson, Southwark – a godless combo of grilled pineapple, beef, bacon, cheese and teriyaki mayo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's a fabulously named councillor standing for re-election in the Liverpool City Council elections next month... Anna Key!

    (From another PB)

    At least she's not going to Europe.

    Anna Key in the UK.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    MarqueeMark said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    That is one nasty looking dog.
    Looks like he has painted his house purple.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    anothernick said:

    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    anothernick said:

    FPT

    If Labour run Adonis as a candidate that will go a very long way toward reassuring remainers - if one of the most high profile - fanatical even - remain campaigners is on the ticket it will make mass defections to TIG or the LDs much less likely. Very smart move - makes Labour's position much clearer without moving on 2nd ref commitment.

    The only problem with Adonis is that he's a nut.
    Adonis has only been placed second on the Labour list in the south west.

    It’s only a six seat region and Labour only won one seat there in 2014 as it’s not one of their strongest areas of support - the Greens got 1 and UKIP and the Tories two each. So he is unlikely to be elected as you might expect Lib Dem support to recover with them taking a seat.

    I predict 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Tory, 2 Brexit and 1 Lib Dem but no Adonis!
    I think Labour is placing sitting MEPs at the top of all its regional lists, and pretty much all incumbents seem to be offering themselves for re-election.

    So the fact that Adonis is only no 2 is not surprising - the interest in this is not his position on the list but the fact that Labour has selected him at all. This could not have happened without the acquiescence of the leadership.
    Agree it’s not surprising he is no 2 but it means he is very unlikely to get elected as the LDs will almost certainly pick up a seat there and there just aren’t enough Labour votes for them to get a Second seat.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Eagles, are you suggesting Kames is to the culinary world what you are to fashion?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Any sign of Nigel Farage in the Mueller report?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1118908178018656256?s=19

    Why wasn't he this much fun as LOTO?!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,681
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, are you suggesting Kames is to the culinary world what you are to fashion?

    It should be James.

    I'm a fashion trend setter.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    That is one nasty looking dog.
    Looks like he has painted his house purple.
    what's with the charcoal grey double breasted suit jacket? Such care with all that colour and then he gets his suburban accountant's jacket out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Looks like the Rage will have an impact on locals:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1118905217368694784
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Do none of these people even try to count?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    TOPPING said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    That is one nasty looking dog.
    Looks like he has painted his house purple.
    what's with the charcoal grey double breasted suit jacket? Such care with all that colour and then he gets his suburban accountant's jacket out.
    Dressing up for the camera?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    TOPPING said:

    rottenborough said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    That is one nasty looking dog.
    Looks like he has painted his house purple.
    what's with the charcoal grey double breasted suit jacket? Such care with all that colour and then he gets his suburban accountant's jacket out.
    Homage to the Moggster.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's some real monsters in the world.

    James from Busted spotted polishing off a 'Hawaiian Aloha' burger at the Lord Nelson, Southwark – a godless combo of grilled pineapple, beef, bacon, cheese and teriyaki mayo.

    Probably one of the best burgers I've ever eaten was strawberry flavour. :p
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Nigelb said:

    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280

    huh?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    TOPPING said:

    Betting Post:

    Crawford vs Khan will likely be another mismatch for Amir. Crawford is 1.1 on BF which is fair enough but perhaps to back him (Crawford) to win in rds 4-6 (currently 3.25) is a sensible bet. Amir is fast of that there is no doubt and can happily skip around Crawford for a few rounds. But then, sadly, he will likely tire and make a mistake, let his head bob up, and get sparked out.

    No idea why Khan has persisted at 10 stone 7, he'd have been better off fighting at 140 - at least it's Crawford and not Spence that'll be delivering the beating...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's some real monsters in the world.

    James from Busted spotted polishing off a 'Hawaiian Aloha' burger at the Lord Nelson, Southwark – a godless combo of grilled pineapple, beef, bacon, cheese and teriyaki mayo.

    Probably one of the best burgers I've ever eaten was strawberry flavour. :p
    Strawberry flavour suggests that burger had never been near a strawberry. For that, it would have to be strawberry flavoured.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    rottenborough said:

    Looks like the Rage will have an impact on locals:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1118905217368694784

    I hope this Tory disaffection flows down the Aire from NY to WY.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Betting Post:

    Crawford vs Khan will likely be another mismatch for Amir. Crawford is 1.1 on BF which is fair enough but perhaps to back him (Crawford) to win in rds 4-6 (currently 3.25) is a sensible bet. Amir is fast of that there is no doubt and can happily skip around Crawford for a few rounds. But then, sadly, he will likely tire and make a mistake, let his head bob up, and get sparked out.

    No idea why Khan has persisted at 10 stone 7, he'd have been better off fighting at 140 - at least it's Crawford and not Spence that'll be delivering the beating...
    He says he feels comfortable which actually means not a very great deal. I mean I don't subscribe to the glass jaw view of him - he showed vs Maidana he can take a shot. It's just that he at one point or another will put that jaw right in front of his opponent's right (or left) hand.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280

    huh?
    The Mueller report

    image
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    rottenborough said:

    Looks like the Rage will have an impact on locals:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1118905217368694784

    Those quotes should be tattooed inside the eyelids of every MP.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    Maybe that's normal for Swindon?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1118896790835736576?s=21
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    williamglenn said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280

    huh?
    The Mueller report

    image
    OIC Thanks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,812
    Mr. Eagles, ah, thought it might've been a surname.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1118896790835736576?s=21

    Clearly the words of a man who has done nothing wrong and expected to be totally exonerated.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280

    huh?
    The Mueller report

    image
    OIC Thanks.
    It's here https://www.scribd.com/document/406726149/Mueller-Report-FINAL
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Recidivist said:

    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
    Jack has conveniently forgotten the enormous lengths parliament went to because it was convinced May would go ahead with a No Deal Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Recidivist said:

    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
    You would be hard pressed to set up a situation more likely to deliver full-blown National Populism to the UK (well, ok England).

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    logical_song said:

    TOPPING said:

    williamglenn said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is quite good.

    https://twitter.com/samthielman/status/1118897222626742280

    huh?
    The Mueller report

    image
    OIC Thanks.
    It's here https://www.scribd.com/document/406726149/Mueller-Report-FINAL
    Helpfully in a format you can't search... :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/sannewman/status/1118916579843035136
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Is anything happening about Brexit now?

    When Donald Tusk said "Please don't waste this time." did Theresa May miss the first two words?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    williamglenn said:

    Recidivist said:

    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
    Jack has conveniently forgotten the enormous lengths parliament went to because it was convinced May would go ahead with a No Deal Brexit.
    True. Also, there must be plenty of Tory MPs who will be looking at the polls and wondering whether being seen to back Brexit is still a good look for them in their own constituency.

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1118855749948592128
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Recidivist said:

    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
    Never mind that, any replacement Conservative leader needs to command the confidence of the House of Commons before becoming Prime Minister. Whatever they might promise their party members, they’re not going to get the job in the current Parliament until their hands are tied on this front.

    Counting is not difficult but so few people seem to do it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    The ineptitude of the ERG is on an epic scale. When the annals of Brexit are written, little children will laugh in derision at their hubris. Their folly. Their inability to read anything beyond the spoof Ladybird book of Brexit.

    They won't remove Bercow. They can't even piss in the wind.

    As Mike Smithson, almost alone amongst commentators, told you all long ago.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Recidivist said:

    JackJack said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    I'm astonished there isn't more comment on the Com Res poll. The Conservatives rating of 23% is lower than anything I've seen since the heady days of Blair. The Brexit Party has come from nowhere to take 14% and I realise some Conservatives believe the Brexit vote is basically disillusioned Conservatives who will return home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder.

    Maybe but on those numbers that looks like a Labour Government or very close to it and not much to show in seat terms for the Brexit Party.

    The European Parliamentary Poll isn't as radical as some earlier in the week with the Conservatives just second on 18% and Brexit on 17% while Labour has a solid 15-point lead.

    With those kinds of numbers you just wonder how the locals might turn out - of course there are no Brexit Party candidates to support but this must be a great election to be an organised Independent taking on a local Conservative or Labour Councillor.

    Back in the Blair years, a poll showing the Conservatives on 23% would have given Labour 50%+. The internals of the Com Res poll show 10% of the 14% Brexit vote coming from Conservatives. I think that a lot of that vote will stick with the Conservatives in the locals, but some of it will go to UKIP and Independents.
    The only thing that will allow the Brexit vote to come home to the Tories will be delivering Brexit. They need to change the party rules, oust May, get in someone like Raab or Mordaunt, prevent any further extension, and then force parliament into a Deal vs No Deal choice.
    Such a course of action is now well beyond the power of the parliamentary party. Think how many votes you'd need to be able to rely on.
    Never mind that, any replacement Conservative leader needs to command the confidence of the House of Commons before becoming Prime Minister. Whatever they might promise their party members, they’re not going to get the job in the current Parliament until their hands are tied on this front.

    Counting is not difficult but so few people seem to do it.
    That's a good point. They really are in the stickiest situation since Sticky the stick insect got stuck to a sticky bun.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Mysticrose said:

    The ineptitude of the ERG is on an epic scale. When the annals of Brexit are written, little children will laugh in derision at their hubris. Their folly. Their inability to read anything beyond the spoof Ladybird book of Brexit.

    They won't remove Bercow. They can't even piss in the wind.

    As Mike Smithson, almost alone amongst commentators, told you all long ago.

    Impossible to disagree with.

    We must be slouching towards a second referendum, surely?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    dixiedean said:

    What is the point? Bercow is not the reason there is no Brexit. Simple Commons arithmetic, and the fact that there are a couple of dozen irreconcilables are responsible.
    A new Speaker won't change that.
    Plus. Won't that mean a Buckingham by-election? Is that REALLY'what a government with a majority of 4 wants?

    And Bercow has been a good neutral chair, anyway. No sensible speaker would have taken those ERG unicorn amendments. Since they don't have the numbers to install a speaker biased in their favour, there doesn't seem any point, other than displacement activity to avoid facing their own large slice of blame.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited April 2019
    Mysticrose said:

    The ineptitude of the ERG is on an epic scale. When the annals of Brexit are written, little children will laugh in derision at their hubris. Their folly. Their inability to read anything beyond the spoof Ladybird book of Brexit.

    They won't remove Bercow. They can't even piss in the wind.

    As Mike Smithson, almost alone amongst commentators, told you all long ago.

    Didn’t Mike expect them to fold and for the deal to go through?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1118906440641581057?s=21
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2019
    I have found an interesting comment from Vote UK Forum:
    'It is the view of a few SNP MPs in this area - and I agree with them - that if it looks likely Labour will win the next election, Labour will take around a dozen seats off the SNP in the Clyde valley area.'
    People can make of that what they wish!


  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited April 2019
    TrèsDifficile said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    UKIP's Carl Benjamin not sorry for MP rape comments

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-wiltshire-47974036

    Aubrey Attwater, one of the Swindon kippers who want him out, looks.. interesting!

    Several abiding images from this fiasco and that's now one I, unfortunately, will not be able to erase. Apart from anything else, he looks like he's playing with himself. Mind you, looking at his situation I don't entirely blame him.

    Sir Ian Duncan Smith arriving at Chequers in his Morgan was another. There's nothing wrong with Morgans. Well there is actually. But they just don't get it.

    They never have ...

    https://images.app.goo.gl/ugmDugJkEkBfq2Rb8
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1118918010641747968
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    williamglenn said:

    Mysticrose said:

    The ineptitude of the ERG is on an epic scale. When the annals of Brexit are written, little children will laugh in derision at their hubris. Their folly. Their inability to read anything beyond the spoof Ladybird book of Brexit.

    They won't remove Bercow. They can't even piss in the wind.

    As Mike Smithson, almost alone amongst commentators, told you all long ago.

    Didn’t Mike expect them to fold and for the deal to go through?
    Mike famously (and TSE I think) said that Rees-Mogg was all piss and wind.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1118920503207563267
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/sannewman/status/1118916579843035136

    Slogan for 2020:

    'You can trust me, I'm so useless I can't even break simple laws effectively.'

    (Reagan did actually run on a variant of that - and won!)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    RoyalBlue said:

    Mysticrose said:

    The ineptitude of the ERG is on an epic scale. When the annals of Brexit are written, little children will laugh in derision at their hubris. Their folly. Their inability to read anything beyond the spoof Ladybird book of Brexit.

    They won't remove Bercow. They can't even piss in the wind.

    As Mike Smithson, almost alone amongst commentators, told you all long ago.

    Impossible to disagree with.

    We must be slouching towards a second referendum, surely?
    From what May has said, she is clinging to the hope that her deal can be got through Parliament, on the back of forcing MPs to preference vote a softer Brexit as the preferred destination, in time to stop the EU elections. The number of coins that would have to turn up heads to make this a viable outcome suggests that Mrs M is in desperate gambler territory. If she fails, Parliament will have a long summer to consider alternative ways to go.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    New: Nate's Silver Bulletpoints:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-weve-got-your-backlash-to-the-buttigieg-backlash/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's a fabulously named councillor standing for re-election in the Liverpool City Council elections next month... Anna Key!

    (From another PB)

    At least she's not going to Europe.

    Anna Key in the UK.......
    Very good, but still not as good as the great Seymour Cocks MP.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    "this looks like a reasonably organic surge in voter interest in Buttigieg and not just a media fixation."

    Nate Silver
This discussion has been closed.