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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    I bid you goodnight with the news that a NEW THREAD is in full swing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden won't stand. Sanders will flop.

    Which makes it all very exciting.

    Buttigieg is the blank slate onto which people will project their hopes. That is why he might well win the nomination.

    And the General? I think that'll mostly be a consequence of how the US economy is doing. Right now, the indicators are all pointing to weakening demand. If that continues, then Biden or Buttigieg or Harris or whoever will probably win - if Trump isn't delivering prosperity, then he simply won't get that much support.

    And the corollary is that if the economy turns round and the US has 3+% GDP growth next year, then it probably doesn't matter who the Democrats pick.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,160

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    Oh God, tell me the Dems aren't going to go for Sanders.

    They do that, they lose and we have four more years of orangeness.
    Trump will likely win regardless if he does not face Biden and Sanders actually will likely to better in the rustbelt than Sanders
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Mayor Pete is the mayor of a (previously) failing industrial city in Indiana - I think it's a mistake to think he can't appeal to the rust belt.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,160

    HYUFD said:


    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there

    I agree about Buttigieg and think he's a bit of a European candidate - pleasant and reasonable, but not really a heavyweight in US terms, and too centrist for the Democrats. That said, Sanders is doing OK but Biden is still well ahead in most polls.
    General yes but Sanders is closing and indeed ahead on some primary polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,160
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    "If being gay is a choice, it was made way, way above my pay grade."

    Buttigieg:

    https://www.msnbc.com/11th-hour/watch/buttigieg-breaks-through-the-political-noise-1482651203945

    Right now he looks like the real deal. I’ve decided not to bet against him at anything approaching current odds. He’s going to shorten a lot more yet, I think.
    For a progressive critique see here: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/03/all-about-pete

    Personally if Buttigieg comes across as a bit of a Blairite, well, I could get behind that personally.
    Is Blairism really going to win over Democratic primary voters whose poster girl is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the moment, or indeed shift the swing voters in the rustbelt away from Trump? Indeed in policy terms at least that would suggest Buttigieg is Hillary 2.0
    imho Biden is the one who can beat Trump. No one else comes close.

    But Buttigieg is very exciting and a class act. I am betting he will be Dem nominee. At very least I will be able to lay off after he wipes the floor in the first debate.
    Biden I agree is the best Democratic hope to beat Trump even now.

    Buttigieg I think will be a Democratic John Kasich, a good bet for the general maybe but not able to win the nomination in such polarised times, Sanders is still the likeliest choice there
    I agree as well. Biden is the only candidate who can win back post-industrial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. A "Woke" candidate would tank in those places.
    Agreed
This discussion has been closed.