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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871

    DavidL said:

    Surely the main question is whether David Coburn will any longer bestride the national and international stage?

    Is he standing? I think he (along with practically everyone else) fell out with UKIP last year.
    He's in the Brexit Party now. I doubt Coburn could resist a last hurrah of media attention which I assume he'd get as an incumbent.
    I think any of the prospective MEPs getting media attention is going to be an ask but if they want a freak show I am sure he will be available.

    FWIW I think the SNP just might squeeze a third, especially if there is differential voting by remainers over leavers but the Tories will have aspirations for a second. Everyone else is wasting their time (assuming that they are not all wasting their time of course).
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Alright PB, who is Perfidious Albion on Dope?
    Has to be someone with a long history of anti French comments.

    I can’t think of anyone regularly denigrates the nation of collaborators.
    I don't really reckon alternate history as a genre, but I am going to write one just for you about WW2. The initial facts will be identical except that the English Channel was completely filled in in the 1930s in a mega Keynsian work creation scheme.

    You will not enjoy this book.
    Sounds like seditious talk to me.
    There may have been an equally heroic evacuation of the BEF carried out by milk floats & wheelbarrows across the plain of Dunkerque. Unfortunately they were all squashed by Panzers 10 miles from Dover.
    The senior surviving titanic officer Charles Lightholler rode his tandem across as part of the little vehicles convoy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Mr. Doethur, that's a bit ruff.

    Too late MD, I've collared the market in puns.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    A useful piece on the Tory perspective from Mark Wallace (though of course ConHome have their own particular line on Brexit). From a betting perspective the key line is " My understanding is that the Party is working on the assumption that Tory MEP numbers would be down in single figures."

    https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/04/the-practicalities-of-fighting-a-euro-election-look-no-more-appealing-than-the-principle-of-holding-one.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Doethur, you can kiss my Golden Hind.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    That font size is shouting at me
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Hits too close to home, you asshat.

    Which I do think is one word not two as in the image.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Mr. Doethur, you can kiss my Golden Hind.

    Nah, I'll just declare victoria.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    RobD said:

    Perfidious Albion on Acid.

    image

    Interesting. Is that a ministerial flag?
    Am more concerned that is a developing halo.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Nice, although I must point out that no one here has successfully refuted the fact that pineapple pizza is the ultimate foodstuff.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    The disgraced former defence secretary and General Practitioner/wannabe trade expert, Liam Fox says CU is a bad idea.

    Must be good then.

    Can't believe the remainers lost the referendum with the reduction of everything to personalities.

    Na, not sure we actually lost. It's very marginal nature and the pernicious influence of at least one hostile foreign power and all that, somewhat calls it into question.

    Also, as I said the other day if Leavers had been a little more dignified in their marginal victory, rather than gloating, they might have taken the moral high ground. Your post is yet another example as to why they didn't, and why they did not. Too late now, as they never will.
    Ah yes, it was the Russians wot lost it. Not the rather mediocre product that Remain was trying sell.
    The mediocre product worked pretty well compared to what has come to pass since all you loonies who voted for a unicorn called Brexit., and yes, sorry to break it to you, you have bought into the propaganda machine of a hostile foreign power. Putin is loving it, he loves all people like you, and he is very grateful for the damage you have done.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited April 2019
    And so the Great Lord Toryah was struck down, as it had been foretold.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited April 2019
    South East Region - 10 MEPs
    London Region - 8 MEPs
    North West Region - 8 MEPs
    West Midlands Region - 7 MEPs
    Eastern Region - 7 MEPs
    Yorkshire and the Humber - 6 MEPs
    Scotland - 6 MEPs
    South West Region - 6 MEPs
    East Midlands Region - 5 MEPs
    Wales - 4 MEPs
    Northern Ireland - 3 MEPs
    North East Region - 3 MEPs
    .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited April 2019
    Mr. kle4, yeah, I'd probably say one word rather than two.

    But then, I'd probably call someone an arsehat. Or a derrierechapeau.

    Edited extra bit: chapeauderriere? And yes, there's an accent missing...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    isam said:

    That font size is shouting at me
    That’s stage three on the pyramid, you should be honoured. :p
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the main question is whether David Coburn will any longer bestride the national and international stage?

    Is he standing? I think he (along with practically everyone else) fell out with UKIP last year.
    He's in the Brexit Party now. I doubt Coburn could resist a last hurrah of media attention which I assume he'd get as an incumbent.
    I think any of the prospective MEPs getting media attention is going to be an ask but if they want a freak show I am sure he will be available.

    FWIW I think the SNP just might squeeze a third, especially if there is differential voting by remainers over leavers but the Tories will have aspirations for a second. Everyone else is wasting their time (assuming that they are not all wasting their time of course).
    You may have the bizarre scenario of Tories performing better in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Mr. kle4, yeah, I'd probably say one word rather than two.

    But then, I'd probably call someone an arsehat. Or a derrierechapeau.

    Edited extra bit: chapeauderriere? And yes, there's an accent missing...

    Bahookiebunnet, though I'm willing to take advice from malc on that.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006
    Norm said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the main question is whether David Coburn will any longer bestride the national and international stage?

    Is he standing? I think he (along with practically everyone else) fell out with UKIP last year.
    He's in the Brexit Party now. I doubt Coburn could resist a last hurrah of media attention which I assume he'd get as an incumbent.
    I think any of the prospective MEPs getting media attention is going to be an ask but if they want a freak show I am sure he will be available.

    FWIW I think the SNP just might squeeze a third, especially if there is differential voting by remainers over leavers but the Tories will have aspirations for a second. Everyone else is wasting their time (assuming that they are not all wasting their time of course).
    You may have the bizarre scenario of Tories performing better in Scotland than anywhere else in the UK.
    Sort of like the GE.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Divvie, so if you disliked Chewbacca, you might call him a bahookie Wookie?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Fpt

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The official figures on homelessness don't show any surge at all: https://www.homeless.org.uk/facts/homelessness-in-numbers/statutory-homelessness

    Overall applications are down slightly over the last 5 years, accepted applications are up slightly. It is a disappointingly static picture given addressing this was supposed to be a priority but a surge it isn't.

    And yet the evidence of our own eyes tells us a completely different story.
    I think what we are seeing is more rough sleeping, as Richard mentioned earlier. It is a lot more obvious than people in overcrowded conditions or sofa surfing. It has clearly increased since Romania joined the EU and we received a lot more professional beggars than we had before.
    I don't know what it's like round your bit but there aren't many Romanian rough sleepers in Glasgow. To use a favourite Brexitty right trope, why would they come over here to take advantage of the UK benefit system then make it much harder for themselves to do so?

    In any case, as suggested in the recent 60 Days On The Streets programme, Glasgow at least seems to have made a dent in rough sleeping compared to other places.

    'But after arriving during the coldest part of winter, what he found waiting for him on the streets of Glasgow took him by surprise.
    “It was really positive, he explains. “There was a bed first policy and so many positive things going on, including the joined-up thinking and how all the organisations talk to each other. There was even an organisation that was set up to allow the different, fragmented organisations set up for homeless people to communicate with each other...

    “There was more examples of people with their cases being solved, due to the progressive policies up in Scotland. I think it will be a bit of a light at the end of quite a dark tunnel in terms of the first two episodes. There was a lot that English local authorities and charities could learn from in the way things are being done.” '

    https://tinyurl.com/y4mrmhto
    The earlier post someone made about literacy is hugely important. This is s great organisation worth supporting:

    https://readeasy.org.uk/
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,006

    Mr. Divvie, so if you disliked Chewbacca, you might call him a bahookie Wookie?

    Wookie bahookie I think.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited April 2019
    Mr. Divvie, I shall be disappointed if no Scottish comedian has made that joke before.

    Edited extra bit: and cheers.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    RobD said:

    Perfidious Albion on Acid.

    image

    Interesting. Is that a ministerial flag?
    Flag of the Board of Trade.

    Liam Fox is also President of the Board of Trade.

    IIRC only the Secretary of State for Defence has a personal ministerial flag. https://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/gb-def.html#ssd
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    I shall vote twice like last time - here in Spain and with my postal vote in the UK. Just because some sill Tories on here are being petulant this Tory will vote twice!
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    felix said:

    I shall vote twice like last time - here in Spain and with my postal vote in the UK. Just because some sill Tories on here are being petulant this Tory will vote twice!

    Isn’t that illegal
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Commons debate on the extension starts. Speaker rules out both amendments (Bone and SNP)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    kjohnw said:

    felix said:

    I shall vote twice like last time - here in Spain and with my postal vote in the UK. Just because some sill Tories on here are being petulant this Tory will vote twice!

    Isn’t that illegal
    In Britain you can only vote once for any body, and it's a serious offence to do otherwise. I have no idea whether the same rules apply in Spain to the EP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kjohnw said:

    felix said:

    I shall vote twice like last time - here in Spain and with my postal vote in the UK. Just because some sill Tories on here are being petulant this Tory will vote twice!

    Isn’t that illegal
    It's only illegal if you don't vote Tory twice.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Government (solicitor general) recognises Parliament doesn't want to leave without a deal, but argues Cooper-Letwin is unnecessary and unhelpful.

    Says it might be the case we have EU elections but MEPs never sit in the EP if we leave end June.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    kjohnw said:

    felix said:

    I shall vote twice like last time - here in Spain and with my postal vote in the UK. Just because some sill Tories on here are being petulant this Tory will vote twice!

    Isn’t that illegal
    EU rules: "Your right to vote

    If you live in your home country, you can only vote for the EU candidates standing for election in your own country.

    If you are registered and live in another EU country, you can:

    vote for candidates standing in your home country or participate in the election of your host country and vote for candidates standing in that country.

    You can only vote once at the European elections.

    You may need to register to vote with the national authorities in your host country before the election takes place. In some EU countries, you are registered automatically once you register your residence there. If you need to register, check the registration deadlines in your host country well in advance as they vary from country to country."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    FPT
    DavidL said:

    » show previous quotes
    Still are, if their signs are to be believed.

    I think if you take people of low educational attainment, cosset them for several years when most of us are learning to look after ourselves, providing them with most of their food, accommodation, entertainment, support networks etc and then put them out on their own in their 30s it is hardly surprising that they don't cope. It's frankly irresponsible.

    David, Not sure where you see any Tories cosseting poor people, is it an east coast thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    SG ducks the issue of what happens to PVs if they are cast and then the elections are cancelled before polling day. MPs suggesting this wouldn't be on.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Huw Merriman knows this afternoon that even if he gets kicked out of his government position he could be back in again soon. Look at Will Quince and Stephen Hammond...both had to resign because they broke the whip but both have now been reinstated. I know some Tories who are furious because where is the sanction?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    IanB2 said:

    Government (solicitor general) recognises Parliament doesn't want to leave without a deal, but argues Cooper-Letwin is unnecessary and unhelpful.

    Says it might be the case we have EU elections but MEPs never sit in the EP if we leave end June.

    Perfect. Its a proxy for a second referendum
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited April 2019
    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    IanB2 said:

    SG ducks the issue of what happens to PVs if they are cast and then the elections are cancelled before polling day. MPs suggesting this wouldn't be on.

    I assume the PVs should be destroyed unopened in that situation ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The interesting thing is that the two main parties already did very badly at the last Euro elections. Could they really do even worse this time?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. JS, aye. They could do even worse this time.

    One big thing going for the two major parties is that UKIP is not the force it was. Its big beast has left and the party itself lacks the punch it had a few years ago.

    Against that, both pro- and anti-EU sentiment is much stronger than it was.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    Yes, either the UK is full members or it is not a member. Which is it?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    AndyJS said:

    The interesting thing is that the two main parties already did very badly at the last Euro elections. Could they really do even worse this time?

    Yes
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    AndyJS said:

    The interesting thing is that the two main parties already did very badly at the last Euro elections. Could they really do even worse this time?

    I believe they could.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    I fully understand their worries but it all looks rather dodgy. They want us to make our minds up then no extension beyond May, otherwise if we are in how can they restrict what we do while still full members?

    It's a less dramatic version of our own contortions of avoiding a decision and wanting to eat cake and have it.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    Yes, either the UK is full members or it is not a member. Which is it?
    Not really. It would be, as it is currently, a full member on its way out, so neither a non-member nor a long-term member. In the circumstances, it's very reasonable to expect that it wouldn't be disruptive and that it would not get involved in long-term decisions of the EU. In fact I believe we have already followed that approach over the last couple of years.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government (solicitor general) recognises Parliament doesn't want to leave without a deal, but argues Cooper-Letwin is unnecessary and unhelpful.

    Says it might be the case we have EU elections but MEPs never sit in the EP if we leave end June.

    Perfect. Its a proxy for a second referendum
    Which means a longer extension makes sense as it reduces the proxy effect.

    Although on the remain side I suspect the votes will be head the Lib Dems / Change UK's direction anyway...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    SG wasting lots of time defending May's doomed deal.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Mr. kle4, yeah, I'd probably say one word rather than two.

    But then, I'd probably call someone an arsehat. Or a derrierechapeau.

    Edited extra bit: chapeauderriere? And yes, there's an accent missing...

    Bahookiebunnet, though I'm willing to take advice from malc on that.
    Le Grand Arsehole toute le monde , apologies for the rudeness, normally it would be on its own without the French endearments.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    Yes, either the UK is full members or it is not a member. Which is it?
    Not really. It would be, as it is currently, a full member on its way out, so neither a non-member nor a long-term member. In the circumstances, it's very reasonable to expect that it wouldn't be disruptive and that it would not get involved in long-term decisions of the EU. In fact I believe we have already followed that approach over the last couple of years.
    Indeed - hence the entity known as EU27, which meets regularly without us
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    Yes, either the UK is full members or it is not a member. Which is it?
    Not really. It would be, as it is currently, a full member on its way out, so neither a non-member nor a long-term member. In the circumstances, it's very reasonable to expect that it wouldn't be disruptive and that it would not get involved in long-term decisions of the EU. In fact I believe we have already followed that approach over the last couple of years.
    So I assume we have stopped racking up debts on the reste a liquider?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Chris Bryant asks a very sensible question: what will happen if the EU only offers a longer extension? He didn't get an answer. What is the position under the Cooper-Letwin bill as amended by the Lords?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Nabavi, would these inferior voting rights come with diminished financial obligations?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    Government (solicitor general) recognises Parliament doesn't want to leave without a deal, but argues Cooper-Letwin is unnecessary and unhelpful.

    Says it might be the case we have EU elections but MEPs never sit in the EP if we leave end June.

    Perfect. Its a proxy for a second referendum
    That would be a weird election night.

    The SG was also asked about costs and compensation for the elected candidates, and again the Government ducked the issue.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Mr. Nabavi, would these inferior voting rights come with diminished financial obligations?

    Guess!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    Jacob R-M's tweet, letter or whatever it was demanding that the UK be as awkward as possible has concerned them. He really is an obnoxious individual.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2019
    Judging by the number of vacancies declared in the Labour Euro selection procedures, 3 of their sitting MEPs are not re-standing if the elections take place in May. 2 in London (one is Mary Honeyball) and 1 in Yorkshire.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    Soubry asking the opposition why they haven't tabled a date for a long extension.

    Pennycook says they would expect government to accept any longer extension (avoids Q of why no Labour amendment)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2019
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    Yes, either the UK is full members or it is not a member. Which is it?
    Not really. It would be, as it is currently, a full member on its way out, so neither a non-member nor a long-term member. In the circumstances, it's very reasonable to expect that it wouldn't be disruptive and that it would not get involved in long-term decisions of the EU. In fact I believe we have already followed that approach over the last couple of years.
    So I assume we have stopped racking up debts on the reste a liquider?
    Probably we have stopped, because we haven't (as yet) crossed a budget cycle.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    Labour will come out on top. They held remainers in the GE and even some hiving off to LD and Tig should see them safe.

    If there is not a Tory collapse I will be stunned. People are suggesting they not bother for a reason, it's a free hit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,383
    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    Unless the Lib Dem/TOG vote divides in the manner suggested by the Welsh poll.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    Jacob R-M's tweet, letter or whatever it was demanding that the UK be as awkward as possible has concerned them. He really is an obnoxious individual.
    Indeed. An embarrassment to Britain of epic proportions. Why is it that history often spews out little weaklings with odious opinions that some gullible people feel compelled to follow.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    edited April 2019
    It could be the dysfunctional Tories will not be bothered if their vote collapses. As for the UKIP v Brexit party battle it would sum up how ludicrous the whole saga has been if they are unable to come to an electoral arrangement and helped to increase the chances of no Brexit thanks to a fractured pro Brexit vote damaging their cause further.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    My ass wants a hat. Where could it acquire such a thing?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited April 2019

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    kle4 said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    Labour will come out on top. They held remainers in the GE and even some hiving off to LD and Tig should see them safe.

    If there is not a Tory collapse I will be stunned. People are suggesting they not bother for a reason, it's a free hit.
    There will of course be a lot of expectation management going on. The Sunday Telegraph was already at it regarding the local elections.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
    It's already been done as part of the first extension. An extension requires unanimity, so making it conditional effectively just sets out terms under which consent for the extension would be removed.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20006-2019-INIT/en/pdf

    "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spiritof the Withdrawal Agreement"
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    We’ll see. I’m used to pre election mockery from over confident EU types, it paid a few bills in May 2015 and June 2016.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    edited April 2019

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
    It's already been done as part of the first extension. An extension requires unanimity, so making it conditional effectively just sets out terms under which consent for the extension would be removed.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20006-2019-INIT/en/pdf

    "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spiritof the Withdrawal Agreement"
    There is no express provision regarding conditions in A50 but equally there is nothing to prevent either side setting them.

    Someone was on legal twitter the other day questioning whether A50 can be extended more than once on a literal read. Anyone else come across this?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    edited April 2019

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
    It's already been done as part of the first extension. An extension requires unanimity, so making it conditional effectively just sets out terms under which consent for the extension would be removed.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20006-2019-INIT/en/pdf

    "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spiritof the Withdrawal Agreement"
    There's no indication the extension is conditional on any of that. As I said, Article 50 doesn't provide for the extension to be conditional.

    If the UK wants to give promises about how it's going to behave, obviously it can, but it would be separate from the operation of Article 50.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    This debate seems a bit pointless as about the June extension with most in favour and the ERG against, when the real decision is about a longer extension or not.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    The winners will be the nearest to the Kick Bishop Brennan Jean-Claude Juncker Up the Arse Party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Democrats “are on the wrong side of the immigration argument, the core issue shaping Western politics,” says Andrew Sullivan, a moderate-minded liberal writer at New York magazine."

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/04/08/andrew-sullivan-no-democrat-immigration-policy-beat-trump/
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    My ass wants a hat. Where could it acquire such a thing?
    Presumably it would have two holes in it for the ears.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    This debate seems a bit pointless as about the June extension with most in favour and the ERG against, when the real decision is about a longer extension or not.

    Poor Mike - his own tactics came to bite him on the rear. Couldn't happen to a nicer bloke.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    I honestly don't know who Mike Ashley is. Just about to google him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    Why would that be , he can afford to lose a shedload and not even notice. He may be pissed off but no long term affect , whereas Theresa is being insulted and ridiculed at home and abroad.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
    It's already been done as part of the first extension. An extension requires unanimity, so making it conditional effectively just sets out terms under which consent for the extension would be removed.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20006-2019-INIT/en/pdf

    "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spiritof the Withdrawal Agreement"
    There's no indication the extension is conditional on any of that. As I said, Article 50 doesn't provide for the extension to be conditional.

    If the UK wants to give promises about how it's going to behave, obviously it can, but it would be separate from the operation of Article 50.
    They could make it a rolling daily extension if you want to be pedantic about conditionality.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    isam said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    We’ll see. I’m used to pre election mockery from over confident EU types, it paid a few bills in May 2015 and June 2016.
    Well, as I said earlier, if many Leave inclined people (to be fair, I don't think you are one of these) had been a little less disespectful of Remain voters we would probably be in a different place. I think the phenomena that you describe will very much apply to Remain supporters who have had the ya boo sucks approach from the Leave camp since 2016, and will be looking to even the score. But, then, as you say, we will have to see.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    Why would that be , he can afford to lose a shedload and not even notice. He may be pissed off but no long term affect , whereas Theresa is being insulted and ridiculed at home and abroad.
    Losing £150M is a fair old loss, I get miffed if I lose a fiver.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    I honestly don't know who Mike Ashley is. Just about to google him.
    The Sports Direct guy. Spent £millions buying 30% of Debenhams, offered to take it over, but the creditors turned him down and went bankrupt instead, rendering his shares worthless.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    Why would that be , he can afford to lose a shedload and not even notice. He may be pissed off but no long term affect , whereas Theresa is being insulted and ridiculed at home and abroad.
    Losing £150M is a fair old loss, I get miffed if I lose a fiver.
    For sure, but he will not need to tighten his belt just the same. Seems crazy they did not accept his deal, it must have been better than the alternative.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    Why would that be , he can afford to lose a shedload and not even notice. He may be pissed off but no long term affect , whereas Theresa is being insulted and ridiculed at home and abroad.
    Losing £150M is a fair old loss, I get miffed if I lose a fiver.
    Well he can afford it, though I assume people who acquire such massive wealth probably get even more upset by the loss of a fiver or theyd not be so driven to wealth in the first place.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    We’ll see. I’m used to pre election mockery from over confident EU types, it paid a few bills in May 2015 and June 2016.
    Well, as I said earlier, if many Leave inclined people (to be fair, I don't think you are one of these) had been a little less disespectful of Remain voters we would probably be in a different place. I think the phenomena that you describe will very much apply to Remain supporters who have had the ya boo sucks approach from the Leave camp since 2016, and will be looking to even the score. But, then, as you say, we will have to see.
    To be honest I don’t know anyone like that either. Most people I know voted Leave, and just assumed that meant we would leave. It is the perceived lack of acceptance of the result from the political establishment that has created the division. When Leave won I sighed with relief as it meant I could be a lefty again... alas not.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The media keep playing the narrative that the EU elections will return a huge pro Brexit contingent . Completely ignoring the possibility that pro EU parties could do well.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,871
    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    malcolmg said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s not often someone has a worse day than Theresa May, but Mike Ashley has today.

    Why would that be , he can afford to lose a shedload and not even notice. He may be pissed off but no long term affect , whereas Theresa is being insulted and ridiculed at home and abroad.
    Losing £150M is a fair old loss, I get miffed if I lose a fiver.
    For sure, but he will not need to tighten his belt just the same. Seems crazy they did not accept his deal, it must have been better than the alternative.
    Can't help feeling that there must be a fair bit of freehold on the Debenhams balance sheet but ex general department stores are not easy to shift. Ask Ashley, he's got several left over from HoF.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    But that would be illegal, and leave them with a much worse problem if we revoked.

    It is ironic to see the EU, having stood firmly to the letter of their rules all this time, frantically trying to find a way round them.

    The advantage would be that as it would make revoke much more difficult it may finally persuade certain intellectually challenged persons to vote for the deal at last.
    How would it be illegal? All they have to do is draft the extension conditions so that it expires if the UK violates them. They've already done this with the first extension.
    I don't think Article 50 provides for any conditions to be attached to an extension.
    It's already been done as part of the first extension. An extension requires unanimity, so making it conditional effectively just sets out terms under which consent for the extension would be removed.

    https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/XT-20006-2019-INIT/en/pdf

    "Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spiritof the Withdrawal Agreement"
    There's no indication the extension is conditional on any of that. As I said, Article 50 doesn't provide for the extension to be conditional.

    If the UK wants to give promises about how it's going to behave, obviously it can, but it would be separate from the operation of Article 50.
    They could make it a rolling daily extension if you want to be pedantic about conditionality.
    Easy way around Cooper-Letwin then - PM calls Macron a twat every day, vetos all motions and stops Irish lorries at Holyhead for extensive customs checks.

    We will be out in no time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Perfidious Albion on Acid.

    image

    Interesting. Is that a ministerial flag?
    Flag of the Board of Trade.

    Liam Fox is also President of the Board of Trade.

    Cheers. Was Fox going for an Elizabeth I vibe here?
    He's certainly virgin on the ridiculous.
    You’re a machine :D
    But is he a cyborg or and android?

    The Public has a Right To Know!!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    Or interference from a hostile power perhaps? Oh, hang on.....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    The media keep playing the narrative that the EU elections will return a huge pro Brexit contingent . Completely ignoring the possibility that pro EU parties could do well.

    Are there any pro-EU parties ? Or are they just anti-Brexit.

    I look forward to their pro-EU manifestoes..
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    I do feel your pain, Sam. The country voted to leave and yet here we are not having left and looking as though we might not for some time to come. Why don't we just leave? This Friday for example?

    I do have one question, though - let's suppose that the whole CBI, TUC, BoE, Michael Gove, You Name It predictions of economic chaos are not just project fear but are very close approximations of what may happen.

    Would you be happy to leave with no deal or are you happy to wait until we get some kind of deal whether it be the WA or a Lab-inspired compromise?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. kle4, yeah, I'd probably say one word rather than two.

    But then, I'd probably call someone an arsehat. Or a derrierechapeau.

    Edited extra bit: chapeauderriere? And yes, there's an accent missing...

    I had a competitor called François Maisonrouge.

    He used to get really pissed that everyone called him Frankie Redhouse.
This discussion has been closed.