Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

124678

Comments

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    They may be frustrated, but that does not mean they would regard it as illegitimate.

    If, after a GE, no stable government can be formed, we vote again.

    That does not erode trust in the system. It assures it.
    That is what I said.

    The bigger risk is that frustrating leaves to a vote for no deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Charles, my guess would be that if we end up with a second referendum the options will be Remain or The Mangled Remains Of May's Deal.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    nico67 said:

    The ERG seem intent to piss off as many more moderate MPs as possible by their disgraceful behaviour.

    Trying to sabotage an extension is more likely to see more Tories supporting revoke if it comes to that .

    The problem for the leavers is that Francois, Brigden etc are increasingly being seen as the poster boys for Brexit and it's not a good look.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I see Crystal Amber are playing games again
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    The people on the march would be very happy to get the pencils out. That indeed, was the whole point of the march.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    Nope. All that was promised was “leave”

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OllyT said:

    The problem for the leavers is that Francois, Brigden etc are increasingly being seen as the poster boys for Brexit and it's not a good look.

    Little Englanders, one and all.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    kle4 said:


    His party got 0.8% in the Newport West by-election. Spot the logo
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_and_Veterans

    Heh.

    From that link, the diarrhoea and vomiting party are targeting Essex.

    [Insert cheap gags about Essex here]

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42862247
    It doesn’t say they’re targeting Essex at all!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    Imagine a football team that went out and bought a bunch of players under Sir Alex Fergusson and then on the first day of the league they brought in Alan Pardew to coach the team.

    When they didn't win the league , pundits are somehow suggesting that it simply couldn't be won as it was too hard.

    May = Pardew.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    They may be frustrated, but that does not mean they would regard it as illegitimate.

    If, after a GE, no stable government can be formed, we vote again.

    That does not erode trust in the system. It assures it.
    The difference being that in the case of a hung parliament the electorate know that the politicians actually want there to be a stable Government. In the case of Brexit the electorate know the politicians want to prevent it and are looking at any means to frustrate it. Motive matters.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    The people on the march would be very happy to get the pencils out. That indeed, was the whole point of the march.
    I’m sure they did in 2016, so they’re annoyed they lost, what’s new?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    If it's that length then May is gone by the weekend. What is the point in her staying on ?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    edited April 2019
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    If it's that length then May is gone by the weekend. What is the point in her staying on ?

    She said she'll stick around until we leave?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    The people on the march would be very happy to get the pencils out. That indeed, was the whole point of the march.
    The problem you have with that being that of those 400,000 or so (in itself not enough to change anything) how many are even eligible to vote? Same applies to the petition.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    It's funny how everyone has forgotten that Boris Johnson's pitch for the leadership a few months ago involved him asking the EU for a six months extension...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The ERG seem intent to piss off as many more moderate MPs as possible by their disgraceful behaviour.

    Trying to sabotage an extension is more likely to see more Tories supporting revoke if it comes to that .

    The problem for the leavers is that Francois, Brigden etc are increasingly being seen as the poster boys for Brexit and it's not a good look.
    The Tories are screwed unless they get a new leader that isn’t held hostage by the ERG death cult . They’ll be lucky to have a single seat left in London or any other city by the next election . Bozo even with a 5000 majority could be toast and there are quite a few other Tories who could bite the dust .

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    If it's that length then May is gone by the weekend. What is the point in her staying on ?

    She said she'll stick around until we leave?
    She said we would leave the EU on 29th of March.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    If it's that length then May is gone by the weekend. What is the point in her staying on ?

    She said she'll stick around until we leave?
    She said we would leave the EU on 29th of March.
    And she meant it. Too bad some people prioritised things other than leaving the EU.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    OllyT said:

    nico67 said:

    The ERG seem intent to piss off as many more moderate MPs as possible by their disgraceful behaviour.

    Trying to sabotage an extension is more likely to see more Tories supporting revoke if it comes to that .

    The problem for the leavers is that Francois, Brigden etc are increasingly being seen as the poster boys for Brexit and it's not a good look.
    The Tories are screwed unless they get a new leader that isn’t held hostage by the ERG death cult . They’ll be lucky to have a single seat left in London or any other city by the next election . Bozo even with a 5000 majority could be toast and there are quite a few other Tories who could bite the dust .

    These guys aren't new to Westminster - but there is a huge vacuum of leadership and discipline at the top which is being filled by the loudest and shrillest.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    If it's that length then May is gone by the weekend. What is the point in her staying on ?

    She said she'll stick around until we leave?
    She said we would leave the EU on 29th of March.
    Very close to one of the apparent options the EU might offer
  • isam said:

    kle4 said:


    His party got 0.8% in the Newport West by-election. Spot the logo
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_and_Veterans

    Heh.

    From that link, the diarrhoea and vomiting party are targeting Essex.

    [Insert cheap gags about Essex here]

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42862247
    It doesn’t say they’re targeting Essex at all!
    From the tweet in that story.

    https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/957883688347492352
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    The people on the march would be very happy to get the pencils out. That indeed, was the whole point of the march.
    I’m sure they did in 2016, so they’re annoyed they lost, what’s new?
    I can only speak for myself. In 2016 I was disappointed. But I respected the result. Indeed I couldn't see any way Brexit could be stopped whether I respected it or not.

    In 2017 I was heartened by the election result and expected it to be reflected in a softer version of Brexit.

    As late as the end of 2018 I was happy enough to grudgingly accept May's deal, even though it seemed to be a lot more extreme than was needed to satisfy the result.

    It was only this year when the leave supporting MPs scuppered it that switched me to actively opposing Brexit. When it became clear that the leave deadline was not going to be met something snapped. I no longer felt the referendum result was valid.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
    The reason we haven’t left


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    Gods, just say no to both and save us all time. Or just revoke - does anyone here actually think if there is along extension that we will end up leaving?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    Referendums pale into insignificance when up against opinion poll panels, and marches/petitions that include those not qualified to vote and their multiple email addresses
    The people on the march would be very happy to get the pencils out. That indeed, was the whole point of the march.
    I’m sure they did in 2016, so they’re annoyed they lost, what’s new?
    I can only speak for myself. In 2016 I was disappointed. But I respected the result. Indeed I couldn't see any way Brexit could be stopped whether I respected it or not.

    In 2017 I was heartened by the election result and expected it to be reflected in a softer version of Brexit.

    As late as the end of 2018 I was happy enough to grudgingly accept May's deal, even though it seemed to be a lot more extreme than was needed to satisfy the result.

    It was only this year when the leave supporting MPs scuppered it that switched me to actively opposing Brexit. When it became clear that the leave deadline was not going to be met something snapped. I no longer felt the referendum result was valid.
    Leavers had their chance, a deal was reached and they spurned it. If what was negotiated didn't work for them, they can't expect everyone else to put their lives on hold while they work out what the hell they want.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,246
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
    The reason we haven’t left


    The reason we haven’t left is that we have a hung Parliament, and a significant slice of the largest party have actively sabotaged the current PMs attempts to push her Brexit deal through said Parliament.
    The rest is detail.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    kle4 said:


    His party got 0.8% in the Newport West by-election. Spot the logo
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_and_Veterans

    Heh.

    From that link, the diarrhoea and vomiting party are targeting Essex.

    [Insert cheap gags about Essex here]

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42862247
    It doesn’t say they’re targeting Essex at all!
    From the tweet in that story.

    https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/957883688347492352
    So it does, you’re right. My parents initials, never thought to call them Diarrhoea and Vomit before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,870
    edited April 2019
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    Gods, just say no to both and save us all time. Or just revoke - does anyone here actually think if there is along extension that we will end up leaving?
    No, but we are ahead of the curve by following it so carefully. The public needs longer to adjust to the idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,246
    rcs1000 said:

    It's funny how everyone has forgotten that Boris Johnson's pitch for the leadership a few months ago involved him asking the EU for a six months extension...

    He is a man of so many positions, and so little consequence, that most of us didn’t bother to listen in the first place.

  • kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    BBC suggesting the majority in the EU discussion is weighing up extension to end Dec 2019 v end March 2020

    Gods, just say no to both and save us all time. Or just revoke - does anyone here actually think if there is along extension that we will end up leaving?
    The longer this goes on remain becomes much more likely.

    The trend is away from the brexiteers - they have alienated me completely to the point I am ready to remain. I still support TM deal but otherwise time to move on
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    isam said:

    kle4 said:


    His party got 0.8% in the Newport West by-election. Spot the logo
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrats_and_Veterans

    Heh.

    From that link, the diarrhoea and vomiting party are targeting Essex.

    [Insert cheap gags about Essex here]

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42862247
    It doesn’t say they’re targeting Essex at all!
    From the tweet in that story.

    https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/957883688347492352
    Anyone still think PR is a good idea in these times?

    These guys don't believe representative democracy works anymore and want direct democracy from the people. Here it comes the kind of populist stuff that is playing well all over europe.

    Well done to our current generation of politicians. They have caused all this.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It's funny how everyone has forgotten that Boris Johnson's pitch for the leadership a few months ago involved him asking the EU for a six months extension...

    He is a man of so many positions, and so little consequence, that most of us didn’t bother to listen in the first place.

    But he keeps winning elections.
  • Scott_P said:
    A lovely lady and everything a speaker should be that Bercow is not
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?
  • Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    I agree too.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    Grayling will be in charge of ordering it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    OT. What's happened to all the decent sub-editors? I heard that Chelsea player Danny Drinkwater had been charged with drunk driving. Having just looked through the papers there isn't even one that made me smile.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,162
    edited April 2019
    Interesting if we do contest the European Parliament elections that could affect the balance of power in the EU.

    Without us the centre right European Peoples' Party could come top, however as the Tories are in the ECR not the EPP and UKIP and the Brexit Party would align with the Nationalists and Labour is aligned to the Party of European Socialists UK participation could enable the combined conservative and nationalist right or centre left to come top
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Yes, that makes sense - just have a much later cliff edge for us to go up against.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    I don't think they'll get her out. Not even with one of those blades that boy scouts use to get stones out of camel's hooves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited April 2019
    In all seriousness, despite being predicted many times before, how does May last past the next few weeks? Once there's a long extension at play there's no reason for any agreement to shorten things, and there's plenty of time for her to be replaced and something else tried. Those seeing her gone very soon are right I think.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981


    They may not buy into it quite yet but if a losers revote is confirmed then there will be a vast amount of publicity given to the fact that they have been ignored and that they are being told to go back and vote again because they got it wrong the first time. A month or so of that should bring things nicely to boiling point.

    "losers revote" is a bit infantile, isn't it? Nice Leaver approach to the use of the apostrophe, mind. As for "nicely to boiling point," referring back to my suggestion of the possibility of racist violence, I will just invite readers of this site to consider what it says about you.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    Not in the brains trust but I suspect she will have to announce the expected timetable - she will stay in post but a new Con leader in time for the conference in Sept - then 3-6 months to GE or sort out a deal.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    The reason we haven’t left


    Most Tory MPs who have refused to vote for Brexit by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement have been Leavers. That's why we haven't left.

    Most of the Tory MPs who supported Remain in the referendum accepted the result and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Theresa May ignored Parliament as much as possible while she negotiated with the EU, so there's no sense in which MPs have filibustered for three years because they've only really become involved since January.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    I think she should go and all wings of the Tory party should force her out. She's been an awful salesperson. Whichever side you are on the PR war has been devastatingly lost by the Brexit side, and May is an intrinsic part of that.

    When Tommy Robinson is left as one of your flag-bearers on a big stage in London and your non-visceral Europhobia is represented in parliament by the hardcore affectionately known as the headbangers, you've got to admit you've lost.

    I was one of the 50/50 crew who didn't like the EU but feared leaving. I shaded it on the Brexit side but I'm willing to admit the whole Brexit effort has been pretty fucking laughable, led by a shite PM.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    tpfkar said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    We will be comparing to 2014, when pro-EU voters were complacent and anti-EU voters were motivated to vote against the evil Empire.

    Sure some Leave voters will be pissed off that the elections are happening, but they were pissed off in 2014. The major change is that pro-EU voters are mobilised.

    Looking forward to seeing if I'm wrong!
    You also have 3 million EU voters who couldn't vote in the referendum in 2016. This will be their first chance to give a view on Brexit. If they turn out in any numbers on a low turnout election overall, they could have a significant say in the outcome.
    The outcome hardly matters, does it? Seems to me the chances of leaving the EU are close to zero, now, so who cares what purports to represent us there?

    Good evening, everyone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness, despite being predicted many times before, how does May last past the next few weeks? Once there's a long extension at play there's no reason for any agreement to shorten things, and there's plenty of time for her to be replaced and something else tried. Those seeing her gone very soon are right I think.

    If we're heading for a second referendum, which Tory contender would want to take over first, and have to put all their cards on the table?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    .

    isam said:

    The reason we haven’t left


    Most Tory MPs who have refused to vote for Brexit by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement have been Leavers. That's why we haven't left.

    Most of the Tory MPs who supported Remain in the referendum accepted the result and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Theresa May ignored Parliament as much as possible while she negotiated with the EU, so there's no sense in which MPs have filibustered for three years because they've only really become involved since January.
    If you can look at the numbers in that screenshot and find a way to say its reasonable that we haven't left, you are a better man than me
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    If not this weekend certainly very very soon. She has said that an extension beyond the Euros is "unacceptable to me as prime minister". That is a bankable promise to go.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    +1
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AnneJGP said:

    tpfkar said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    We will be comparing to 2014, when pro-EU voters were complacent and anti-EU voters were motivated to vote against the evil Empire.

    Sure some Leave voters will be pissed off that the elections are happening, but they were pissed off in 2014. The major change is that pro-EU voters are mobilised.

    Looking forward to seeing if I'm wrong!
    You also have 3 million EU voters who couldn't vote in the referendum in 2016. This will be their first chance to give a view on Brexit. If they turn out in any numbers on a low turnout election overall, they could have a significant say in the outcome.
    The outcome hardly matters, does it? Seems to me the chances of leaving the EU are close to zero, now, so who cares what purports to represent us there?

    Like Eurovision, it is our national duty to send the most dreadful of performers to prance around noisily to no great effect or reward.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    +1
    If we fail to leave the EU, will you personally lose faith in democracy, or is this a de haut en bas concern for less rational voters?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    isam said:

    .

    isam said:

    The reason we haven’t left


    Most Tory MPs who have refused to vote for Brexit by voting against the Withdrawal Agreement have been Leavers. That's why we haven't left.

    Most of the Tory MPs who supported Remain in the referendum accepted the result and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    Theresa May ignored Parliament as much as possible while she negotiated with the EU, so there's no sense in which MPs have filibustered for three years because they've only really become involved since January.
    If you can look at the numbers in that screenshot and find a way to say its reasonable that we haven't left, you are a better man than me
    You can't. I suggest you take it up with the leave supporting MPs who scuppered it. Tell them you know someone on an internet forum who now wants to revoke Article 50 as a direct result of their actions if it helps.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    Fenster said:

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    I think she should go and all wings of the Tory party should force her out. She's been an awful salesperson. Whichever side you are on the PR war has been devastatingly lost by the Brexit side, and May is an intrinsic part of that.

    When Tommy Robinson is left as one of your flag-bearers on a big stage in London and your non-visceral Europhobia is represented in parliament by the hardcore affectionately known as the headbangers, you've got to admit you've lost.

    I was one of the 50/50 crew who didn't like the EU but feared leaving. I shaded it on the Brexit side but I'm willing to admit the whole Brexit effort has been pretty fucking laughable, led by a shite PM.
    So who becomes PM?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
    The reason we haven’t left


    With all due respect isam, the blame is not just on the Remainers. Had the ERG and DUP voted for MV3, then it would have passed with a majority of 18.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    +1
    If we fail to leave the EU, will you personally lose faith in democracy, or is this a de haut en bas concern for less rational voters?
    If you couldn't personally get your money out of Northern Rock would you blame it on the cash machine or the CEO ?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    We have never had a democracy. We certainly do not have a referendum based democracy, and there were substantial flaws in that referendum which are enough to question its legitimacy. I don't favour referenda, particularly simplistic ones, but if we must be held hostage to them, then Leave advocates should not be afraid to get clarification from "the people". The Brexit referendum is the opiate of the masses; it prevents you from seeing the glaring problems with our system of representation that are far more in need of reform than our membership of the EU.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
    The reason we haven’t left


    With all due respect isam, the blame is not just on the Remainers. Had the ERG and DUP voted for MV3, then it would have passed with a majority of 18.
    The DUP rightly voted against as it discriminated against the part of the Uk they represented.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    What like the Leave march, and the Leave petition? titter
    Or the referendum itself perhaps ?

    Of course that was back in the day when we had a democracy and votes counted.
    The issue is that democracy is, like banking, a confidence game.

    Regardless of the technicalities the public believes they live in a democracy

    If they stop believing that then the legitimacy of the whole system is undermined
    You should have thought of that before campaigning for something that the 'system' couldn't deliver.
    It can deliver it.
    Not in the form that was promised, so in delivering 'it', you necessarily erode the faith of the people who voted for it.
    The only promise was made was that we would leave. That is what people voted for or against.
    The reason we haven’t left


    With all due respect isam, the blame is not just on the Remainers. Had the ERG and DUP voted for MV3, then it would have passed with a majority of 18.
    Yes, I blame them too. But the fact is there was no reason for any MP to vote against the deal, it should just have been a rubber stamp once Leave won. If the moderates who said they'd honour the result voted for the deal, the ERG & DUP would have been defeated.

    But now that No Deal is not an option, why aren't all MPs voting for the deal?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Absolute rubbish.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    I agree.

    The only referendum that would make sense would be:

    Deal vs No Deal
    Deal vs Remain
    Remain vs No Deal

    This would allow us to find the Concordet Winner.
  • Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?

    I expect that TM will resign very shortly. Why should she be PM to those ultra brexiteers who want to destroy her and what little reputation we have left

    These last couple of days have shocked both my wife and I to the core and we will resign from the party the minute Johnson is installed as PM

    My wife, bless her, is sorting through decades of memories and clutter we have accumulated, a necessary process as we close in on our eighties.

    Today she found a letter written from the HOC by Wyn Roberts (Lord) in July 1983 thanking us for our efforts in the GE campaign and gaining an increased majority. The letter demonstrated the kindnesss and devotion he gave his constituents. I was his personal driver for the whole campaign and I recall taking him to a meeting in Bangor where he asked me to answer questions on the sinking of the Belgrano as he was not as familiar with the detail as I was. My explanation to those querying the sinking achieved votes for Wyn but I was never sure if it was my explanation or just the respect they had for Wyn

    He would canvass the council estates and resident after resident would come out and hug him, usually conversing in Welsh, and with posters supporting him in the windows of many homes.

    Guto Bebb could never achieve the heights of love and devotion the lovely late Lord Wyn Roberts possessed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    TGOHF said:

    The DUP rightly voted against as it discriminated against the part of the Uk they represented.

    The backstop was changed to include the whole of the UK, so that's not true.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    No Deal doesn't mean anything. Within No Deal, there could be all series off different outcomes with different levels of alignment with the EU. It's not learning from our mistake the first time. It doesn't mean ANYTHING.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:

    The DUP rightly voted against as it discriminated against the part of the Uk they represented.

    The backstop was changed to include the whole of the UK, so that's not true.
    Only the customs element of it was changed to include the whole of the UK. I think this is at the root of your misunderstanding that it gives us effectively the Swiss deal without free movement.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Assuming the can does get kicked for many months, would others agree with @TGOHF's assessment that Theresa May will be ordered a removal van this weekend? I think I do. What does the brains trust think?


    These last couple of days have shocked both my wife and I to the core and we will resign from the party the minute Johnson is installed as PM
    You'll be in the party for a while then - Boris wont win.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Absolute rubbish.
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    I agree.

    The only referendum that would make sense would be:

    Deal vs No Deal
    Deal vs Remain
    Remain vs No Deal

    This would allow us to find the Concordet Winner.
    :D
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A long extension allows the ERG to keep voting no and hoping for no deal .The pro second vote to keep hoping . The country is becoming more polarized .

    As was shown by recent polling . Revoke 40 v No deal 38 .

    As a Remainer it now looks like I’m a soft Remainer even though you’d be hard pressed to find many as pro EU as me . I would find it very difficult to agree revoke. Any vote to Remain has to be with a second vote not done by MPs. I really hope MPs are not put in this position because it’s truly horrible .

    Parties must find a compromise , they must understand the country is becoming even less united than 2016.

    I really fear for the UK , it really saddens me that it’s come to this .
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    nico67 said:

    A long extension allows the ERG to keep voting no and hoping for no deal .The pro second vote to keep hoping . The country is becoming more polarized .

    As was shown by recent polling . Revoke 40 v No deal 38 .

    As a Remainer it now looks like I’m a soft Remainer even though you’d be hard pressed to find many as pro EU as me . I would find it very difficult to agree revoke. Any vote to Remain has to be with a second vote not done by MPs. I really hope MPs are not put in this position because it’s truly horrible .

    Parties must find a compromise , they must understand the country is becoming even less united than 2016.

    I really fear for the UK , it really saddens me that it’s come to this .

    We need a better PM - we've basically been without one for 3 years.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Roger said:

    OT. What's happened to all the decent sub-editors? I heard that Chelsea player Danny Drinkwater had been charged with drunk driving. Having just looked through the papers there isn't even one that made me smile.

    Pooor DD. He couldn't resist the transfer fee to Chelsea to sit on the bench, and most weeks not even that. He was a great player for Leicester City and should have stayed and enjoyed his football here. Sadly brought low by overreaching himself.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
    No it isn't. What you are suggesting is a two stage referendum where the winner of Stage one has a large component removed before fighting Stage two against the loser.

    You wouldn't have a rematch of the Heavyweight Championship of the World between the Champion and the loser of the original bout where the Champ cant use his best shot because the original loser is scared of it
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Nigelb said:

    He is a man of so many positions, and so little consequence, that most of us didn’t bother to listen in the first place.

    Mistake to write off BoJo in my sad and anxious and humble opinion. It would be nice to assume that a person cannot possibly attain the highest elected office of a great nation based purely on a toxic mix of bullshit and bluster and outright mendacity - but there is a certain individual across the pond who has definitively proved otherwise.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080
    TGOHF said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tpfkar said:

    isam said:

    timmo said:

    The remainers are enthused and motivated to come out and vote..the Brexit side not so..therefore it can only be one result..a large number of Lib Dem and Change Uk MEPs

    I really don’t see it that way. The very fact there are Euro Elections being held is a massive Fuck You to Leave voters. They’re not represented on here or Twitter, but there are a lot of people angry at that, and it is big motivation for anti EU parties, akin to a football manager slagging an opposing team off and their boss putting the clippings on the dressing room wall
    We will be comparing to 2014, when pro-EU voters were complacent and anti-EU voters were motivated to vote against the evil Empire.

    Sure some Leave voters will be pissed off that the elections are happening, but they were pissed off in 2014. The major change is that pro-EU voters are mobilised.

    Looking forward to seeing if I'm wrong!
    You also have 3 million EU voters who couldn't vote in the referendum in 2016. This will be their first chance to give a view on Brexit. If they turn out in any numbers on a low turnout election overall, they could have a significant say in the outcome.
    The outcome hardly matters, does it? Seems to me the chances of leaving the EU are close to zero, now, so who cares what purports to represent us there?

    Like Eurovision, it is our national duty to send the most dreadful of performers to prance around noisily to no great effect or reward.
    The only thing that's certain is that the MEPs will be rewarded. Perhaps we should encourage those who can't find other work to put themselves forward?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
    No it isn't. What you are suggesting is a two stage referendum where the winner of Stage one has a large component removed before fighting Stage two against the loser.
    I'm suggesting that how we got to the position we're in now is not relevant to the decision of what we should do next where there are only two deliverable options.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
    No it isn't. What you are suggesting is a two stage referendum where the winner of Stage one has a large component removed before fighting Stage two against the loser.
    I'm suggesting that how we got to the position we're in now is not relevant to the decision of what we should do next where there are only two deliverable options.
    ... and I'm suggesting that we are only at this stage thanks to a stitch up by the political elite, which the original vote was raging against.

    Deal vs Remain is ludicrous. Nothing can surprise me now, the MPs are lower than the lowest of creatures, but it is demonstrably unfair.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    OT. What's happened to all the decent sub-editors? I heard that Chelsea player Danny Drinkwater had been charged with drunk driving. Having just looked through the papers there isn't even one that made me smile.

    Pooor DD. He couldn't resist the transfer fee to Chelsea to sit on the bench, and most weeks not even that. He was a great player for Leicester City and should have stayed and enjoyed his football here. Sadly brought low by overreaching himself.
    He must lead a complicated life. He lives on the Mere near Manchester and plays in London (occasionally). Possibly drowning his sorrows. Must be depressing to get so few games.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "European elections
    Don't dread the European elections – they could fix our broken politics
    Maya Goodfellow"

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/08/dont-dread-the-european-elections-they-could-fix-our-broken-politics
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Roger said:

    OT. What's happened to all the decent sub-editors? I heard that Chelsea player Danny Drinkwater had been charged with drunk driving. Having just looked through the papers there isn't even one that made me smile.

    Danny Sciatica?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
    No it isn't. What you are suggesting is a two stage referendum where the winner of Stage one has a large component removed before fighting Stage two against the loser.

    You wouldn't have a rematch of the Heavyweight Championship of the World between the Champion and the loser of the original bout where the Champ cant use his best shot because the original loser is scared of it
    Once May is gone her deal is history - new PM can start with clean slate.

    If it can pass WM and the EU then it goes ahead - no referendum.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    I agree.

    The only referendum that would make sense would be:

    Deal vs No Deal
    Deal vs Remain
    Remain vs No Deal

    This would allow us to find the Concordet Winner.
    Good luck with defining a no deal that not only wouldn't be subject to a categorical nonsense but that all groups could agree on.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    HYUFD said:
    Well, at least that tells us it will be before A.D. 10,000.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    Getting leave over the line isn't enough - unless 100% of those who voted leave are happy with No Deal (Oborne and myself confirm that isn't the case) No Deal isn't an end state 52% of the population would be happy with.

    BTW I could just about cope with No Deal were the UK to impose maximum tariffs but the idea from the ERG that tariffs should be 0 is completely and utterly insane.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited April 2019

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Absolute rubbish.
    No - spot on. Like it or not No Deal is polling around 40pc. A referendum which excluded this option would be utterly without substance and would certainly settle nothing. I do not believe in government by referendum. I deplore the 2016 vote, and a putative Deal vs Remain sequel would be even worse. We are in a hole because of our leaders' resort to this tawdry device. We need to stop digging.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2019
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    PeterC said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Absolute rubbish.
    No - spot on. Like it or not No Deal is polling around 40pc. A referendum which excluded this option would be utterly without substance and would certainly settle nothing. I do not believe ingovernment by referendum. I deplore the 2016 vote and a putative Deal vs Remain sequel would be even worse. We are in a hole because of our leaders' resort to this tawdry device. We need to stop digging.
    No Deal is only polling 40% due to lack of detail. Were anyone to see the consequences 12 months after the ERG's no deal occurred (when exports have been reduced to 0) and 24 months as all benefits and pensions are cut to the bear minimum as tax revenue disappeared no one would be voting for it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    OT. What's happened to all the decent sub-editors? I heard that Chelsea player Danny Drinkwater had been charged with drunk driving. Having just looked through the papers there isn't even one that made me smile.

    Pooor DD. He couldn't resist the transfer fee to Chelsea to sit on the bench, and most weeks not even that. He was a great player for Leicester City and should have stayed and enjoyed his football here. Sadly brought low by overreaching himself.
    He must lead a complicated life. He lives on the Mere near Manchester and plays in London (occasionally). Possibly drowning his sorrows. Must be depressing to get so few games.
    Loadsamoney is no compensation for loss of purpose in the prime of his career. It is a sad tale, like George Best without the charisma.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2019
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    I doubt the man in the street would think that. But they (I think) will be frustrated that they are being asked the same question again with no apparent change in the UK’s status.

    I think that is true. Hence, and I am one of many fervent PB Remainers who sees very little merit in a second referendum, it would have to be a Deal vs Remain option, which would allow them (us) to confirm the flavour of leaving, and thus some progress and control vs EURef 1 because lest we forget the Deal is leaving.

    So why not include No Deal? Because, simply, that would be too great a degree of self harm to ask the country to inflict upon itself.
    It just cant be Deal vs Remain, It would be like having Leave vs Remain without FOM. It would disenfranchise millions of voters
    Deal vs Remain is the real choice parliament is faced with. Why not turn it over to the people?
    For all we know, a large proportion of the votes that got Leave over the line were from people who wanted to leave with No Deal, why should they be disenfranchised because MPs changed the rules after the vote?
    You can project anything you like onto the motivations of Leave voters. That's irrelevant to the choice we currently face now in 2019.
    No it isn't. What you are suggesting is a two stage referendum where the winner of Stage one has a large component removed before fighting Stage two against the loser.
    I'm suggesting that how we got to the position we're in now is not relevant to the decision of what we should do next where there are only two deliverable options.
    ... and I'm suggesting that we are only at this stage thanks to a stitch up by the political elite, which the original vote was raging against.

    Deal vs Remain is ludicrous. Nothing can surprise me now, the MPs are lower than the lowest of creatures, but it is demonstrably unfair.
    Sam the Deal is leaving. You would just need to vote for it, together with all your co-Leavers, and KABOOM. We're out.
This discussion has been closed.