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Picture Judy Goldhill
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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Deal remains imminent and likely
Picture Judy Goldhill
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Basically I reckon their order of preference is:
1) Clean resolution
2) Continued faffing
3) Car crash
(3) is bad for everyone's businesses and citizens. It's very, very bad for Ireland, and to date the rest of the EU has had Ireland's back. The preference for (1) over (2) explains the strong anti-faff statements we've been hearing, but I think the preference for (2) over (3) will mean the EU will accept pretty much any kind of plan from the UK, even if it's a fairly hokey one like more negotiations to discuss a CU. It's not quite a cert because 27 people have a veto, but I think the probability of the EU accepting any non-ludicrous extension request is very high.
The other way to get No Deal is if Tory leadership politics somehow cause TMay or some other PM to go kamikaze, which is also a real possibility, but definitely not probable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47756122
Sadly, I think you might just have suggested a solution for her, David.
That is a gorgeous metaphor.
I have said for months it is this deal or no deal. I had a brief wobble where I hoped people were coming to their senses, but no.
Not this deal - tragically, because without the EU noticing, in this deal they have somehow conceded membership of and very significant access to the CU and SM whole ending freedom of movement and most payments. But politicians on both sides are too stupid to see it.
Therefore, no deal.
All we can really do now is cross our fingers that it isn't as bad as expected.
Here’s what I see as flaw in your thinking Edmund, To call it car crash is misleading. You mean brexit happening without a deal, what Juncker calls disorderly brexit? There’s been a lot of political spin flying around for a long time in order to place pressure ahead of voting, which means not taking everything said as gospel. But The tools are there to orderly manage a no deal brexit scenario. Carefully devised transition arrangements and sectoral mini deals,They can be whipped out a box and put to use bringing some degree of order to what you call a car crash, instead of crashing out UK orderly transitions outside the EU.
What it means for your list is cross out car crash and insert “orderly 9 month transition for UK outside EU, Future relationship talks do not begin again until we bung them the lolly and likely accept other conditions”
Now for you it may still be third on your list, but for 180 Tory MPs and 10 cabinet members such a thing might have moved to the top, in which case they are thinking how do we act?
And then the question where is it on EUs list, are they thinking sure there is hit from No Brexit, but this is offset by being politically shop tired too tied up prevented from tackling other important things, also reputational damage from kick resolution down road with mad old UK, prolong uncertainty will inflict more economic woe upon already creaking economies and business, and damage EU democracy from UK continuing to participate in EU democracy without being around to abide those decisions,
First is the big leaver push in UK to get those transition tools out the box and put transition to no deal brexit top of the UKs list. Looking at Telegraph front page and the letter to May, this as predicted by dots straight after the vote yesterday has begun. Dots other prediction was later the two real decision makers, British cabinet and EU council come together look at their list and realise what they both have top of it.
One of our HK team members worked on the Democrat campaign in 2012 in a very junior capacity and said that Biden had a reputation that would come back to haunt him now that #MeToo has happened. He said he did not think that he would run for this reason.
Revoke is off the menu - the indicative votes showed there is no appetite in the House. It then comes down to where it should have been many months back: May's Deal, or No Deal. Winner takes all. And MPs have convinced themslves, by their direst warnings of doom followed up by the indicative vote, that No Deal isn't a runner either. May makes it a 3-line whip on her Deal. And gets a three-figure victory. The DUP can huff and puff, but they get promised a tidy sum in Hammond's Emergency post-Brexit Budget - contingent on the Govt. being around to sign the cheques.
May steps down, new leader, Brave New Normal starts off, with the EU clear that Rejoin ain't happening. World gives a huge post-Brexit sigh of relief that It Is Done.
Well, except for the dozens of MPs getting No Confidenced for their grandstanding.
If we get an extension, support for Brexit will continue to decline as people lose faith with it and see it for what it is. Eventually its abandonment will seem sensible, if not inevitable.
The EU doesn't want no deal, and a big majority in Parliament doesn't want no deal. Revocation is more likely, over the heads of the Tories. We only get no deal by a cock up. Which I agree is quite possible, but not the most likely outcome.
David is right in one respect only, that (most of) the Tories won't enjoy finding themselves suddenly impotent when they thought they were in office. But, as he also points out, almost any scenario from here runs up against the disunity of the Tories. So some sort of reckoning can't be avoided.
I think David is quite right about the likelihood of No Deal.
And “if we get an extension” is entirely begging the question.
To pass her deal, Theresa May needs to reach out to its opponents: Labour, ERG and DUP. She must build a consensus in support of her deal; persuade opponents; listen to and address their reservations objections; not repeat yet again her failed tactic of inviting them round for a 2-hour lecture on why she was right all along.
It seems to me that the next logical step is a new Prime Minister who can actually do politics. Theresa May might disagree though.
I agree with @MarqueeMark that we need deselections, starting with the whole of the ERG and the entirety of the Labour Party. They have proven they only care about mindless posturing to appease a tiny group of their mates and not at all about the national interest. They are utterly unfit to hold elected office.
May amends the deal to be subject to a vote and favouring a customs union next week,whips the Tories which divide 50:50 but with the opposition it’s just enough.
May won’t do it, but it is a way out.
The only solution is at the ballot box, and the available alternatives are not exactly thrusting themselves forward at the moment.
The system is broken, and the route towards its repair uncertain.
In fact, if this whole fiasco shows anything it shows our entire political system is in desperate need of reform.
Edit - BTW, I'm surprised to learn Grieve is a member of the ERG or the Labour Party.
When the call “we need deselections” goes out, there are very few ydoethurs voting at the meetings. More is the pity.
I am delighted that the constituency association of Beaconsfield has taken the first step in ditching Dominic Grieve. Although a very clever man he has set his face in opposition to stated government policy, one upon which he stood at the 2017 GE.
Now the others who opposed the PM should be subjected to similar votes and if only the good folks at Rayleigh and Wickford would prick Mark Francois little bubble, that would be great but I fear they will be cheering him on!
Personally my first priority is to get out of the EU. If we can do so on the back of MV4 fine. If not then a No-deal would do because both sides would realise quickly they need a deal. Personally I would bring the Irish to heel by crippling their economy immediately and burst the DUP bubble by announcing a discussion on a united Ireland referendum. Even Arlene Foster would shit herself then.
Just as well I am not PM because I would have all these young knife killers taking a long walk off a wooden platform with a noose around their necks and those caught carrying knives birched!
That's me back off to lurking.
They should elect Chope as leader and be done with it, focusing their energies on upskirting and furriner-baiting.
Detoxification lasted 10 years. Well done, Mrs May.
Although, and I'm sure someone will correct me, she hasn't, has she, ever said we're better of out. She's just referred to the 'Will of The People".
Charming stuff.
Weird, had to sign in twice (second time that's happened).
Mr. Jonathan, if I were May, I'd try slapping a referendum onto the withdrawal agreement.
But, praise be to Anubis, I am not May.
Edited extra bit: kept signing me out, took me about five attempts to stay in to post this.
Indeed, as Ulster's economy is smaller, less diverse and more dependent on trade with Ireland than Ireland's trade is in us, the effects would probably be worse.
It's one reason why I'm appalled at the irresponsibility of MPs voting against the deal and effectively endorsing No Deal.
Is there a decent alternative to the BBC website, I am getting very fed up with the clickbait nature of it.
Grieve has not (yet) been de-selected - and if he turns out to be one of the unintended handmaidens of No Deal Brexit May not be....
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/bahrain-pre-qualifying-2019.html
The pre-race tosh will probably be up Sunday morning. Off-chance it'll be this evening.
@NickPalmer said right from the get go that he couldn’t see more than a half a dozen Lab MPs voting for the deal and so it has turned out.
https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1111748200862486529?s=20
Mr. Jonathan, Grieve's typical of why MPs have failed the electorate. They lack the guts to revoke (with or without a referendum) or the integrity to actually go along with the decision that the electorate made and they themselves legislated for (both in holding the referendum and triggering Article 50).
Said it before, but the Commons needs to shit or get off the pot.
At this rate, we'll leave with no deal because they just can't agree anything else.
Unfortunately it makes the No Deal car crash far more likely. They are not driving responsibly.
And they wonder why people refuse to vote for them.
Compare and contrast with the Tory witch hunt.
1) the EU now says No Deal is “likely”; and
2) they have been preparing for no deal for over a year
When will we ever take the EU’s word for it?
Where are the calls to deselect those MPs who have failed to champion the disastrous care proposals?
I think parties are better as broad churches than narrow interests (indeed, that's one of the reasons I'm so against PR, which fragments larger parties). I do support the right of MPs to differ from their constituents, but Grieve also differed from what he himself appears to have said just a couple of years ago.
Not a great situation.
Their last refuge now, perhaps in the “depression” phrase of grief, is to rail about how unfair all of this is. Yes, it is jolly unfair. Brexit won the referendum fair and square. But politics isn’t some school football match in which a teacher is going to intervene if someone engages in a nasty tackle. If you want to visit a revolutionary change upon a country’s government and economy, you’d damn well better be up to the fight.
I’ve always had an odd, emotional fondness for Westminster’s Eurosceptics... At its best, this movement is inspired, original and brilliant. But it also suffers from an excess of factionalism, pettiness and ideological fanaticism. It is a tragedy that these failings have been allowed to thwart its strengths, that, having won the chance to change things, it was unable to quell the habits of conspiratorial opposition and actually wield power.
The fight will move now to a protracted negotiation over the non-binding political declaration, with the spectre of a second referendum looming ever larger. It isn’t over yet. But before the Brexiteers move onto play the second half, it’s time for a long, hard think about how they ended up here.
At worst, what Grieve has succeeded in doing is allow Parliament to "Take Back Control"
Any Brexiteer who wasn't a charlatan would be cheering him to the rafters...
At some stage, MPs are going to have to figure out how their actions are going to play out in an election which looks increasingly likely.
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1111197135255621635
Today’s Tory party has been taken over by UKIP. The nasty little rally in Parliament square last night with Farage talking about “enemy territory” and Tommy Robinson ranting about immigrants is where the road the Tories have embarked on leads to.