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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2

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Comments

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
    Well if Parliament instructed the PM to do so...
    There would then be a huge legal challenge about whether they could. In spite of the Miller case the conclusion (or not) of treaties remains a matter for Royal Prerogative. The successful argument in the Miller case was that Article 50, if carried top its logical conclusion of Brexit, changed the rights of UK citizens and could only therefore be done with primary legislation through Parliament. Revoking does not do that and so the argument would be made (and has been already) that it remains part of the Royal Prerogative.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Peston really does talk guff sometimes.

    The current EU stance re any extension is taking a hard line to help May.

    There’s no way they’ll want to be blamed for pushing the UK out . For a political commentator he really is clueless sometimes .
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    France tidying up ahead of Brexit? Just received a
    speeding ticket for an offence near Rouen on August 30th nearly 6 months ago.

    Did you know it was coming? Were you given a ticket or caught electronically? I drive round Rouen regularly and am sure I go over the limit at times!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    SeanT said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    The Strangeness continues. That poll was taken at one of the peaks of Tory clustershambling. Yet still they have a very healthy lead. Corbyn is a disaster.

    How soon before McDonnell takes the old carthorse to the knackers yard?
    Never. Corbyn's 2017 recovery means his supporters will never care about poor polling ever again. Only something they regard as a betrayal will ruin him, and the reaction to the Tiggers of Watson and co to fight harder but never leave means he's weakened but still safe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...
    Every time I see some pundit/journo on Twitter attempt to ramp the prospect of a GE, I think of the polls.

    Captain Salad's 'strategy' of endless calls for a GE underline how utterly lost the Labour party is.
    I wouldn't call Corbyn a salad, more a fruitcake. But there's no doubt he's made a real jam for Labour.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean - Sadiq delivered the Night Tube. Unlike Boris who kept saying he would deliver it, but failed because he couldn’t make a deal in a card room.

    OK, fair play. The Night Tube. I’m not sure how much credit he can really take, it was long in the planning, but it happened on his watch so OK.

    However, and for the same reasons, the very palpable rise in crime - the new nervousness across London - which you can actually sense, in places, has also happened on his watch. And I think that entirely outweighs a few trains after midnight. London is a nastier city under Khan. I still love it, but it has an edginess I haven’t known for decades.
    That edginess and nastiness is a nationwide phenomenon. I felt it recently in Bristol, Nottingham, and Leicester.

    The coarsening of British life is not just a London or internet thing.
    It is mainly because of mass immigration. Call me a fascist, but I’d say that is the main driver. It’s notable that the cities you cite have all seen huge immigration in the last decade or three.

    And it’s not because migrants are horrible or evil, or any worse than the Brits, it’s more because SOME of them are horrible and evil because they come from terrible places - like Somalia - where violence was part of daily life. And you only need a few deranged and persistent offenders to ramp up crime. Plus a huge influx of foreigners breaks down the bonds of trust and familiarity which keep a society in order.

    Look at Japan. Zero immigration, zero crime.

    Depends.

    As often as not, the completely unsocialised kids, and the drug dealers’ offspring, are the white British, while the Asian first generation immigrant kids the ones committed to learning.

    Steve Jobs was the son of an immigrant. Sergei Brin was an immigrant.

    And Japan is zero immigrant no longer. They need bodies.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    Not before time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    Not really sure what is trying to achieve right now that means he should not just stand down.
    DavidL said:

    Govt win 412:202

    Government win a vote in the HoC??? #FakeNews
    No, it's true, however they can only manage it thanks to 300 opposition votes.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...

    From the 4th to 8th March we had total Tory meltdown. As before and after

    I wonder if the voters even care what the Tories do. They just don’t like Corbyn,
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    He must think the games up for stopping Brexit (as he woudn't be quitting in the midst of battle) ?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Andrew said:

    glw said:


    Coincidentally the last thing I watched was Top Gear. But before that I think it might have been around Christmas that I last watched normal TV. I regularly go months between "turning the TV on".

    Year before last my aerial cable was damaged, and I never got around to fixing it. Realised eventually I never watched the TV at all, and then cancelled my licence.

    Prime+netflix is only £176/year total, and there's more there than I could ever watch.
    Prime and Netflix are far greater value for money than the BBC. The BBC needs to evolve or die, either go commercial or subscription. If the BBC disappeared tomorrow it would barely affect my TV experiences.
    If forced to give up either the BBC or Netflix/Prime, I would reluctantly let the BBC go. That’s how bad it is for them.

    Luckily I can afford both. Most can’t. Especially as many are also paying for Sky to watch sports.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    Govt win 412:202

    Government win a vote in the HoC??? #FakeNews
    How many of the 202 were Tories?

    I think when more Government MPs are in the 202 than the 412 that calling it a "Government win" is a stretch.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
  • SeanT said:

    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...

    From the 4th to 8th March we had total Tory meltdown. As before and after

    I wonder if the voters even care what the Tories do. They just don’t like Corbyn,
    Literally anyone* else as leader, and they'd be ahead in the polls.



    *not Richard Burgon, obviously.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    There are a huge number of British regional towns and cities where the feeling of menace is nothing to do with immigration. These are generally places quite homogenous that felt relatively safe up to the tail end of the 70's, and in many other places, the early 80s.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited March 2019
    SeanT said:

    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...

    From the 4th to 8th March we had total Tory meltdown. As before and after

    I wonder if the voters even care what the Tories do. They just don’t like Corbyn,
    The government's been in meltdown for six months, and in turmoil for two years.

    What's rarer is that this is third thoughts on Corbyn. People hated him - then they loved him (well, stopped hating him) - now they hate him again.

    That's unusual for a politician.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    SeanT said:

    France tidying up ahead of Brexit? Just received a
    speeding ticket for an offence near Rouen on August 30th nearly 6 months ago.

    Mike, you old roue. You’re in your 70s. What are you doing, “speeding through Rouen”. An assignation?
    I read that as 'An assassination'.

    Which might have explained a certain trip to the Russian Embassy a couple of years back ... ;)
    Vince Cable's number is up.....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    If its got an HDMI port you could get a Roku stick or equivalent to get things like YouTube. Fire Sticks don't permit YouTube irritatingly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    SeanT said:

    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...

    From the 4th to 8th March we had total Tory meltdown. As before and after

    I wonder if the voters even care what the Tories do. They just don’t like Corbyn,
    Literally anyone* else as leader, and they'd be ahead in the polls.



    *not Richard Burgon, obviously.
    Or Laura Pidcock, Diane Abbott, Chris Williamson...
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

    Not sure he is a "reliable source" but a four year extension to A50 makes crazy sense for the EU. It removes the cliff edge that no longer benefits the EU. The UK will either accept the Withdrawal Agreement or give up, which is quite likely to be before the four years are up . The UK will be on best behaviour during the extension because it will want a deal of some sort from the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    If we don't get some certainty soon we can expect to see those most exposed to Brexit defecating...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    Conclusive proof that nobody watches the BBC News any more.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    Conclusive proof that nobody watches the BBC News any more.
    Or that electing a leader who has disturbing parallels to Anton Drexler is not a smart idea?
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited March 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    Steph Peacock (Barnsley East) has just resigned the Labour whip.

    edit: Twitter has clarified - AS a Labour whip.

    #defectionwatch
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:
    The only person I've heard of in that whole tweet is Jeremy Corbyn.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/1106125904298852352

    Not sure he is a "reliable source" but a four year extension to A50 makes crazy sense for the EU. It removes the cliff edge that no longer benefits the EU. The UK will either accept the Withdrawal Agreement or give up, which is quite likely to be before the four years are up . The UK will be on best behaviour during the extension because it will want a deal of some sort from the EU.

    Lmao ! A reliable EU source says 4 years . What comedy . I’d expect an extension to replace the transition period upto December 2020 would be the most offered . Flynn is just trying to fire up the angry mob .
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Vince Cable's departure has made the Mail.

    https://twitter.com/ClaireEllicott1/status/1106298133972160516
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sean - Sadiq delivered the Night Tube. Unlike Boris who kept saying he would deliver it, but failed because he couldn’t make a deal in a card room.

    OK, fair play. The Night Tube. I’m not sure how much credit he can really take, it was long in the planning, but it happened on his watch so OK.

    However, and for the same reasons, the very palpable rise in crime - the new nervousness across London - which you can actually sense, in places, has also happened on his watch. And I think that entirely outweighs a few trains after midnight. London is a nastier city under Khan. I still love it, but it has an edginess I haven’t known for decades.
    That edginess and nastiness is a nationwide phenomenon. I felt it recently in Bristol, Nottingham, and Leicester.

    The coarsening of British life is not just a London or internet thing.
    It is mainly because of mass immigration. Call me a fascist, but I’d say that is the main driver. It’s notable that the cities you cite have all seen huge immigration in the last decade or three.

    And it’s not because migrants are horrible or evil, or any worse than the Brits, it’s more because SOME of them are horrible and evil because they come from terrible places - like Somalia - where violence was part of daily life. And you only need a few deranged and persistent offenders to ramp up crime. Plus a huge influx of foreigners breaks down the bonds of trust and familiarity which keep a society in order.

    Look at Japan. Zero immigration, zero crime.

    Depends.

    As often as not, the completely unsocialised kids, and the drug dealers’ offspring, are the white British, while the Asian first generation immigrant kids the ones committed to learning.

    Steve Jobs was the son of an immigrant. Sergei Brin was an immigrant.

    And Japan is zero immigrant no longer. They need bodies.

    I can only speak from experience, as I don’t think British offender crime stats are broken down by race. Too incendiary.

    I’ve had lots of friends mugged in London, some very nastily. 80% of the time at least it was black muggers. Sorry to be blunt, but that is the case. Everyone knows it.

    The rape stats are even worse. I once read a book by impeccably liberal Helena Kennedy QC, about rape, and she says in the book “if they ever release rape statistics by race there might be riots”.

    Of course this is probably the whitefella’s fault, because Empire, slavery, blackfaced Cornishmen, lack of media attention paid to murder victims like Stephen Lawrence, and so forth,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    Steph Peacock (Barnsley East) has just resigned the Labour whip.

    edit: Twitter has clarified - AS a Labour whip.

    #defectionwatch
    Apparently she is the fat creep's, er, Tom Watson's girlfriend. Does this put him under more pressure?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    There are a huge number of British regional towns and cities where the feeling of menace is nothing to do with immigration. These are generally places quite homogenous that felt relatively safe up to the tail end of the 70's, and in many other places, the early 80s.

    There was plenty of violent crime back then plus trouble from football hooligans, political demos, picket line strikes. Chucking out time from pubs and clubs could certainly be 'vibrant'.

    Its easy to nostalgise 'the good old days'.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    Is Cable's timetable to go the price for something, I wonder?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
    That Cable you're on about?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:
    Quite frankly they're getting off lightly compared to what Stalin would've done to them...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There are a huge number of British regional towns and cities where the feeling of menace is nothing to do with immigration. These are generally places quite homogenous that felt relatively safe up to the tail end of the 70's, and in many other places, the early 80s.

    Elephant and Castle, Peckham and Old Kent road in late 70's early 80's were "fun"

    I had friends who lived on a housing estate in Peckham - every few weeks I spent Sunday in one of their places - leaving at 10pm where my dad waited off the estate (pedestrianised) in his car.

    not ashamed to say there were times I ran off that estate.

    That place was grim.

    I also witnessed a knife fight (by knife I mean one of them was a machete) which I saw from a walkway from above as I was walking to mates place - this was at 10am ish Sunday morning!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    ydoethur said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    Steph Peacock (Barnsley East) has just resigned the Labour whip.

    edit: Twitter has clarified - AS a Labour whip.

    #defectionwatch
    Apparently she is the fat creep's, er, Tom Watson's girlfriend. Does this put him under more pressure?
    I'm guessing she voted against a second ref being an MP for Barnsley.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Quite frankly they're getting off lightly compared to what Stalin would've done to them...
    He's not pm yet - oh wait you meant the other one
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    SunnyJim said:

    I wonder if we will see a few more defections over the weekend.

    Steph Peacock (Barnsley East) has just resigned the Labour whip.

    edit: Twitter has clarified - AS a Labour whip.

    #defectionwatch
    Apparently she is the fat creep's, er, Tom Watson's girlfriend. Does this put him under more pressure?
    I'm guessing she voted against a second ref being an MP for Barnsley.
    Tom Watson's constituency voted as near as dammit 2-1 to leave, but he doesn't seem to have let that affect his policies or his voting habits.
  • SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Shows how ignorant some people are.

    Honestly, they can't even get basic matters of gender right.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.
    I think I'd rather be a coal miner. Safer, cleaner and better paid.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    kle4 said:


    Not really sure what is trying to achieve right now that means he should not just stand down.

    Someone give him the box set of Midsummer Murders and tell him it's time to go off to the New Forest to watch them.....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Floater said:

    There are a huge number of British regional towns and cities where the feeling of menace is nothing to do with immigration. These are generally places quite homogenous that felt relatively safe up to the tail end of the 70's, and in many other places, the early 80s.

    Elephant and Castle, Peckham and Old Kent road in late 70's early 80's were "fun"

    I had friends who lived on a housing estate in Peckham - every few weeks I spent Sunday in one of their places - leaving at 10pm where my dad waited off the estate (pedestrianised) in his car.

    not ashamed to say there were times I ran off that estate.

    That place was grim.

    I also witnessed a knife fight (by knife I mean one of them was a machete) which I saw from a walkway from above as I was walking to mates place - this was at 10am ish Sunday morning!
    Some years ago Antony Worrall-Thompson said that pointed kitchen knives should be banned. Round-ended knives are more useful for kitchen work anyway.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    ydoethur said:

    A poll!!!

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDEM: 12% (-)
    UKIP: 5% (-)
    GRN: 4% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 04 - 08 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 08 Feb

    I was flabbergasted to think after the last 48 hours the Tories could be anything other than fifty points behind.

    Then I noticed the fieldwork dates.

    And I also remembered who's leading Labour...

    From the 4th to 8th March we had total Tory meltdown. As before and after

    I wonder if the voters even care what the Tories do. They just don’t like Corbyn,
    Literally anyone* else as leader, and they'd be ahead in the polls.



    *not Richard Burgon, obviously.
    Or Laura Pidcock, Diane Abbott, Chris Williamson...
    I do wonder whether Jezza will make it to GE 2022. Obviously he'll be around if it is this year, but after that...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.

    "From a family of shipyard workers..."

    Don't be fooled by Uncle-Buck's double-barreledness, it is just one of those pretendy ones.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
    I dunno about your manor, but in Camden we have a recycling centre where you can just go and leave functioning electrical equipment, and needier people can come and take it later, no questions asked. Seems very sensible to me. I agree it feels horrible to just chuck it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    She can't possibly be a traitor. She's a woman!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Vince Cable is taking up his new role as the Ghost of Brexit Past.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    That is complete and utter garbage. It was the experts who said that if we voted to leave then the mere act of voting that way would result in an immediate recession even before we had begun the process of leaving. It was the experts who inspired Osbourne's threatened Emergency Punishment Budget. The experts got it wrong - as at least some of them have now admitted.

    Picking out those few who didn't jump on the fear factor bandwagon and claiming they are representative of the whole lot when all those making the headlines were predicting disaster is no basis for claiming 'the experts' got it right.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited March 2019

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.

    "From a family of shipyard workers..."

    Don't be fooled by Uncle-Buck's double-barreledness, it is just one of those pretendy ones.
    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleagues and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    If you think there’s no problem with that given the horrific murder of Jo Cox then it’s you who has the problem .

    The traitor rhetoric should not be used for any politician who disagrees , the will of the people guff is now tiresome given it was 52 48 hardly all the people !
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    Protesting against politicians seems to be more tolerated depending upon the politician

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6xA0ysv7S0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    Floater said:

    There are a huge number of British regional towns and cities where the feeling of menace is nothing to do with immigration. These are generally places quite homogenous that felt relatively safe up to the tail end of the 70's, and in many other places, the early 80s.

    Elephant and Castle, Peckham and Old Kent road in late 70's early 80's were "fun"

    I had friends who lived on a housing estate in Peckham - every few weeks I spent Sunday in one of their places - leaving at 10pm where my dad waited off the estate (pedestrianised) in his car.

    not ashamed to say there were times I ran off that estate.

    That place was grim.

    I also witnessed a knife fight (by knife I mean one of them was a machete) which I saw from a walkway from above as I was walking to mates place - this was at 10am ish Sunday morning!
    The massive nuclear war mural is pretty cool in Elephant and Castle though
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    BF punters prefer Layla by a nose over Swinson.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2019


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types? You end up like the Spanish, needing several sentences just for the name ..... eg Pablo Diego José Francisco de Paula Juan Nepomuceno María de los Remedios Cipriano de la Santísima Trinidad Ruiz y Picasso.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.

    "From a family of shipyard workers..."

    Don't be fooled by Uncle-Buck's double-barreledness, it is just one of those pretendy ones.
    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).
    That's an even bigger pile of wank.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited March 2019
    It’s a sign of the times that Arlene is there at all.

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/1106270559011307530?s=21
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Gotta love the salt-of-the-earth, pukka working class names in that statement about Labour MPs.

    Justin Madders, Emma Lewell-Buck, Yvonne Fovargue.

    Probably all ex coal miners?
    To be fair to Emma Lewell-Buck, she is from a working class background, and was a CP social worker in the north east, which isn't exactly a cushy number.

    "From a family of shipyard workers..."

    Don't be fooled by Uncle-Buck's double-barreledness, it is just one of those pretendy ones.
    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).
    Common in my school as well among the children.
  • Update from Twitter - too zoomery/brexity for Labour types (e.g. Giles Fraser) seem to be joining the (continuity) SDP. Will they rise like a phoenix and start fielding candidates in major elections?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Andrew said:


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types?
    That's a can to be kicked into the dim and distant future...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    She can't possibly be a traitor. She's a woman!
    Traitoress? Traitrix?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
    Agreed.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited March 2019
    Vince Cable's greatest hit in the Commons, that take down of Gordon Brown.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zlZU_Y_vE4
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Endillion said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    She can't possibly be a traitor. She's a woman!
    Traitoress? Traitrix?
    Traitress.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
    That Cable you're on about?
    He said "still works". So no... :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Andrew said:


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types?
    They have to go the same way as mergers between accountancy firms or pharma companies and drop some of the names off the end. Or else look like a pair of bellends.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    SeanT said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    I hate throwing away electrical stuff which still works and has given good service.

    It just seems wrong.
    I dunno about your manor, but in Camden we have a recycling centre where you can just go and leave functioning electrical equipment, and needier people can come and take it later, no questions asked. Seems very sensible to me. I agree it feels horrible to just chuck it.
    That's a good system.

    I'm a bit surprised its allowed with H&S regulations.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    If its got an HDMI port you could get a Roku stick or equivalent to get things like YouTube. Fire Sticks don't permit YouTube irritatingly.
    Good to know, thank you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    I missed this.

    Beto is running!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    That is truly insane. We haven't so much gone through the looking glass as smashed it over our heads.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    Andrew said:


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types?
    They have to go the same way as mergers between accountancy firms or pharma companies and drop some of the names off the end. Or else look like a pair of bellends.
    ' Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax (born 29 January 1958), known as Richard Drax, is a Conservative politician and a former British Army officer and journalist. Drax has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for South Dorset since the 2010 general election. He was re-elected in 2015 and 2017. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Drax
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    BF punters prefer Layla by a nose over Swinson.
    Compared to other bookies, where Moran is 2/1

    My concern is more of a left of field candidate
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    nico67 said:

    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    If you think there’s no problem with that given the horrific murder of Jo Cox then it’s you who has the problem .

    The traitor rhetoric should not be used for any politician who disagrees , the will of the people guff is now tiresome given it was 52 48 hardly all the people !
    52:48 counts as a decision. It's the way democracy works. Disagreeing is absolutely fine, I'm sure we all encourage it. Discounting a democratic vote totally though is somewhat more dubious. Soubry has done that from the day of the Brexit vote onwards. She's in a difficult place in doing so.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Andrew said:


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types?
    They have to go the same way as mergers between accountancy firms or pharma companies and drop some of the names off the end. Or else look like a pair of bellends.
    ' Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax (born 29 January 1958), known as Richard Drax, is a Conservative politician and a former British Army officer and journalist. Drax has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for South Dorset since the 2010 general election. He was re-elected in 2015 and 2017. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Drax
    If he had gone the way of the accountancy firm merger, he'd have probably opted for PEED.

    Probably just as well.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Andrew said:


    People seem to be doing this when they get married now. In fact, one of my colleague and her husband blended their surnames together (to make a surname no one seems to be able to spell).

    What happens when their kids marry other double-barrelled types?
    They have to go the same way as mergers between accountancy firms or pharma companies and drop some of the names off the end. Or else look like a pair of bellends.
    ' Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax (born 29 January 1958), known as Richard Drax, is a Conservative politician and a former British Army officer and journalist. Drax has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for South Dorset since the 2010 general election. He was re-elected in 2015 and 2017. '

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Drax
    Exactly. Bellend.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008

    It’s a sign of the times that Arlene is there at all.

    https://twitter.com/generalboles/status/1106270559011307530?s=21

    Where's the fokkin Guiness?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    BF punters prefer Layla by a nose over Swinson.
    Compared to other bookies, where Moran is 2/1

    My concern is more of a left of field candidate
    I'm staying out of this market.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    dr_spyn said:

    Vince Cable's greatest hit in the Commons, that take down of Gordon Brown.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zlZU_Y_vE4

    Interesting to note Brown's reply - 'the second highest military budget in the world.' It wasn't even the second highest in NATO (France spent more that year).

    And yet nobody noticed such an appalling lie.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    ' Richard Grosvenor Plunkett-Ernle-Erle-Drax (born 29 January 1958), known as Richard Drax, is a Conservative politician and a former British Army officer and journalist. Drax has served as Member of Parliament (MP) for South Dorset since the 2010 general election. He was re-elected in 2015 and 2017. '


    Recognise the name - the James Bond baddie from Moonraker was named after a relative (father?).

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Good for him. I seem to recall he allowed people to get away with it once and was soundly mocked for it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    _Anazina_ said:

    Danny565 said:

    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352

    I'd be quite happy with us "politically" leaving but "legally" staying in forever tbh.
    Indeed, why not just say we have left, issue Blue Passports and force everyone to eat Angel Delight once a week, but actually stay in?
    Only if they bring back the butterscotch flavour. That was great.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    dr_spyn said:

    For fans of Strictly Come Dancing and Lib Dem leadership bets.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1106291999903223816

    Cable about to stand aside?

    BF punters prefer Layla by a nose over Swinson.
    Compared to other bookies, where Moran is 2/1

    My concern is more of a left of field candidate
    There's no guarantee there will be another Lib Dem leader. It's plausible they'll be folded into TIG by the end of the summer. I presume that under those circumstances, bets will be voided rather than all deemed to have lost.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good for him. I seem to recall he allowed people to get away with it once and was soundly mocked for it.
    There was a Labour leader a few years back who had trouble with a serial rebel, as I recall.

    But the rebel in question was very unimportant and only really had a seat due to his father's connections, so nobody cared much.

    Good job he didn't go on to lead the Party and sack people for rebelling, or he'd look like a hypocritical fool.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Another thing which is hitting British TV hard is YouTube.

    Indeed. I have a television. I have a laptop. I switch the laptop on and watch YouTube. I do not switch the television on any more. I'm genuinely thinking of taking it to the dump.
    You could watch YouTube on your tv.
    It's an old cheap TV. But it has given sterling service for over ten years and I will be sad to see it go. I know objects are not self-aware and it's not a good idea to anthropomorphise but, well... :(
    If its got an HDMI port you could get a Roku stick or equivalent to get things like YouTube. Fire Sticks don't permit YouTube irritatingly.
    Good to know, thank you.
    A NOW TV box lets you show YouTube (plus BBCi etc) - if you don't want the paid for channels you can have a free trial for two weeks and then cancel.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    edited March 2019
    nico67 said:

    SeanT said:

    The protestor is perfectly polite, makes no threatening moves, doesn’t throw an egg, she just makes the very arguable point that Soubry is a traitor for betraying the expressed will of the British people.

    What’s the problem?
    If you think there’s no problem with that given the horrific murder of Jo Cox then it’s you who has the problem .

    The traitor rhetoric should not be used for any politician who disagrees , the will of the people guff is now tiresome given it was 52 48 hardly all the people !
    "My name is death to traitors, free.."

    "Turn it down, mate."

    "Oh, sorry. *whispers* Freedom for Britain."
This discussion has been closed.