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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2

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  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    It is utterly extraordinary we have come to this: MPs have just voted to put the future of the UK economy - perhaps even of the UK itself - into the hands of 27 foreign governments. It is totally unprecedented. We now have no control.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    We LEAVE two weeks tomorrow... :open_mouth:

    or we never leave
    Bad for the SNP then, all those rants over the last few years for nothing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Jonathan said:

    Stephen Barclay's statement suggests May might try to get a conditional extension and go for MV3 on March 25th.

    That is utterly reckless.
    Yes it is. Says to me they know MV3 would fail again (given previous talk of MV4), and so want to push back MV3 as part of the same fear strategy since there'd be virtually no time left. A slap inthe face to parliament for not being willing to take the options out of her hands.

    Also, I have a very important and long meeting on the 25th, so could they make sure the vote is quite late if that is the plan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Brexit Sec votes against Brexit policy.
    Jesus...

    Why doesn't she just suspend government and assign all cabinet posts to herself? Its not like she has a functioning cabinet is it?
    Nobody has tried that since the Duke of Wellington in 1834 - and for good reason.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    The way May is trying to ram this through is disgusting. It really is. No compromise. No consensus. Her way, or the highway. Just a disgrace.

    How is she ramming it through. MPs have had so many chances and votes to stop it but they do not agree on anything
    This a massively important issue and she has made virtually no attempt to listen to anybody else. I will have no sympathy whatsoever if Bercow stops her repeatedly putting the same deal to the vote for a 3td or 4th time.

    How can she believe it's right for her to put a deal that has been massively defeated twice to a third vote whilst telling us it woUld totally undemocratic to have a second referendum.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    It is utterly extraordinary we have come to this: MPs have just voted to put the future of the UK economy - perhaps even of the UK itself - into the hands of 27 foreign governments. It is totally unprecedented. We now have no control.

    Well it was voted for by Remainers. And in any case, it doesn’t mean what you say, but you know that.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    So now the government needs to find a reason to ask for the extension. Does that take us to a vote on May’s deal or no deal?

    This is the text of the motion which has just passed:

    That this house:

    (1) notes the resolutions of the house of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in article 50(3);

    (2) agrees that, if the house has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1) (b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and

    (3) notes that, if the house has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European parliament elections in May 2019.


    It's clear as mud, TBH.
    My understanding is:

    1. Ask for extension until June anyway.
    2. If by end March, May's Deal passes, we leave at end June or thereabouts.
    3. If May's Deal hasn't passed by end March, we will need a longer extension. The government needs to come up with rationale to satisfy EU for this longer extension.

    All subject to unanimous agreement by EU27.

    But I am struggling to keep up, particularly with this new fashion of voting against your own proposals
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Brexit means we now have no control.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    We LEAVE two weeks tomorrow... :open_mouth:

    or we never leave
    Bad for the SNP then, all those rants over the last few years for nothing
    During my lifetime the SNP has gone from having three MPs on the lunatic fringe of Scottish politics to being pretty much the only grown up political group in Westminster.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Brexit means we now have no control.

    By giving Parliament control, we now have no control. Ironic. Whose dreadful idea was the MV anyway? :p
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019

    So now the EU has more control over us than it has ever had before. It gets to decide whether or not we crash out on 29th March. What a thing.

    The period since March 29th 2017 will be studied for decades as a master class in How To Fuck Up Negotiating. It is comically inept.

    The Legislature DEMANDED to be involved in the meetings, opining on the minutiae of the process. Then demonstrated they hadn't a clue what they were doing in there. It's like the commercial director trying to do a deal, not just having the Board in negotiations with him for instruction and guidance (which would be bad enough) - but also every bloody shareholder too.

    A business doing that would be in administration by teatime.

    A business would have given up on Brexit long ago. If you can't make it work, you wrote it off and move on.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.
  • TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    OllyT said:

    The way May is trying to ram this through is disgusting. It really is. No compromise. No consensus. Her way, or the highway. Just a disgrace.

    How is she ramming it through. MPs have had so many chances and votes to stop it but they do not agree on anything
    This a massively important issue and she has made virtually no attempt to listen to anybody else. I will have no sympathy whatsoever if Bercow stops her repeatedly putting the same deal to the vote for a 3td or 4th time.

    How can she believe it's right for her to put a deal that has been massively defeated twice to a third vote whilst telling us it woUld totally undemocratic to have a second referendum.
    Parliamentary proceedings are different to national referendums shocker. The faux outrage and false equivalence on that score is astoundingly unconvincing. We couldn't offer up amendments to the original referendum question either, or set the nature of the question, for shame!

    And while I happen to agree that we need a second vote and to remain, do you really want us to be in a position wherein, hypothetically, parliament would want to eventually approve the deal but could not because of a procedural quirk? Should they not be allowed to vote for a second referendum now because one amendment on the subject at least was lost?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,587
    GIN1138 said:

    And.... The Good Ship May sails on serenely...

    And in this game of Last Man Standing she still has a prospect of getting a deal through which sane moderates like Hammond and Clarke think can be lived with......If she succeeds the ghastly process may be forgotten quicker than we may imagine.

    Compared with everyone playing nicely this is a catastrophe. But I wonder whether, in the long run, this is an exercise in the House of Commons learning to live in a world in which people are actually interested in its doings once more - being the place where crucial conflicts are actually argued out - and is therefore in many ways a good thing.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.

    I think there was one a week or so ago?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
    When's the petition deadline to see if Onasanya is ousted?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
    Con MPs should stage an intervention tonight.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    IanB2 said:

    No 'no deal' exit on 29/3 is now 1.1 on BFE. Which would appear to be free money, with a speedy return.

    Except: someone is once again putting up money on the other side. And one of the ERG on R4 this morning was claiming they had some procedural trick up their sleeve to thwart any extension. So DYoR.

    Now out to 1.12. Someone is very confident that the extension won't happen (and that the government won't otherwise revoke)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
    When's the petition deadline to see if Onasanya is ousted?
    Speaker votes for status quo, which would be the government.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.

    Something like this perhaps:

    TIG/Remain Alliance: 28%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 20%
    Nigel Farage Brexit Party: 15%
    UKIP: 13%
    Lib Dems: 3%
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    So are we all looking forward to next week’s panic?
  • SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
    Well if Parliament instructed the PM to do so...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    This strikes me as an odd comment. I'm sure it happens, but I'd have thought most despotic governments make sure you vote the right way the first time
    https://twitter.com/angiebUK/status/1106258275782324224

    To be fair, parliament are simply being asked to make SOME decision. Any one will do.
    Well quite.

    I am quite the fan of procedural issues (although frankly the way the rules are worded it seems like it is designed such that if you are creative enough, or the House wants it enough, it can do anything it wants) but at the end of the day they do need to make a decision, even if that means considering things they have looked at before, and recurrent votes in a parliament are really not the same thing as rerunning a massive nation wide referendum (which I support, btw). Simply ignoring the rules is not something to be done lightly, or easily (I do enjoy the examples of Acts passed in a few minutes, but by expediting each stage, rather than ignoring them), but the rules are deliberately bendable it seems, since no one wants an assembly unable to decide certain things when on a tight timescale.


    That is what is wrong. May is the problem.
    I take issue with the word 'the' there. She's 'a' problem, not the only problem. You can talk all you want that it is the executive's responsibility to come up with another idea which might gain support, but that doesn't erase the collective responsibility of the House. Indeed, as we've just seen if the House wanted it could have taken away the executive's responsibility to put together options for parliament, demonstrably proving that by declining to do so, it endorses, for now, the executive's plan by default. 'The executive is responsible for putting together options' as you just put it is not inevitable, parliament allows it as they confirmed in the votes tonight. So it is not something they have no power to overcome her.

    None of that makes May less responsible, she is meant to be leading parliament and achieving outcomes after all, but it would be to pretend to suggest she is 'the' problem, particularly when Mps collectively rejected taking the responsibility for options off her.
    May hasn’t even tried to find a genuine plan B. That is a dereliction of her duty as PM. I assert she is the problem. A first class political PM would not be in this mess. Thatcher, Blair, Wilson would have done the technical work behind the scenes to win the vote and stood up and carried hearts and minds on the day. She is not only not up to it, she actively makes the problem worse.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
    A temporary one or one on the way out might.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.

    Something like this perhaps:

    TIG/Remain Alliance: 28%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 20%
    Nigel Farage Brexit Party: 15%
    UKIP: 13%
    Lib Dems: 3%
    I doubt Ukip can afford to stand or get anything like that amount.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    If voters had got even a glimpse three years ago of the chaos that a Leave vote would thrust upon us, its only supporters would have been those expats in Australia, Dubai, California, Gibraltar and the rest, who want to see what happens simply for the popcorn value.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    This strikes me as an odd comment. I'm sure it happens, but I'd have thought most despotic governments make sure you vote the right way the first time
    https://twitter.com/angiebUK/status/1106258275782324224

    To be fair, parliament are simply being asked to make SOME decision. Any one will do.
    Indeed. Just do something. The paralysis is becoming ridiculous.
    And yet parliament is doing what it is meant to do: reflect the will of the people. The will of the people is horribly divided and conflicted. The referendum was won 52:48 and all polls show Remain is now ahead, but only very narrowly. Basically we are split down the middle, just like the Commons.

    TMay’s most egregious error was not seeing that narrow win by Leave as a driver for compromise and Soft Brexit. EFTA or whatever. Instead, for stupid partisan reasons, she decided to take it as a decisive vote instructing her to seek a bloody Hard Brexit, scrawled with stupid red lines, She is politically autistic, if not actually autistic.
    But May's Brexit isn't hard enough for many MPs and a majority of MPs are Remain supporters.

    Is there any alternative which would have won over more of the Remain MPs than it lost Leave MPs ?
    Yes, Norway+CU, or even simply Norway with some sort of accomodation for Ireland. It would have fulfilled the referendum mandate and satisified the Remain majority in Parliament and many non-certifiable Brexiteers. But it would have split the Tory party in two, and May has shown that nothing, not even preserving the Union, is more important to her than keeping the Conservative party intact.

    And that is why we are where we are. Unless there’s a VONC and some sort of bizarre cross-party coalition of the not wholly insane formed next week, then the week after the UK will be going over into the abyss.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    TGOHF said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.

    Something like this perhaps:

    TIG/Remain Alliance: 28%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 20%
    Nigel Farage Brexit Party: 15%
    UKIP: 13%
    Lib Dems: 3%
    I doubt Ukip can afford to stand or get anything like that amount.
    I think they'll get a lot of free votes from people who think UKIP = Farage.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352

    I'd be quite happy with us "politically" leaving but "legally" staying in forever tbh.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    So now the EU has more control over us than it has ever had before. It gets to decide whether or not we crash out on 29th March. What a thing.

    The vote to rule out no deal until after 29th March, which many here were cheering on, certainly strengthened their hand, even if the default legislation is still in place to leave on 29th March.

    However, if we did end up leaving by default on 29th March, then once for the first time the possibility of the UK staying in had been removed, then for the first time there would be the prospect of the EU subsequently negotiating in good faith, rather than just going through the motions of offering nothing in order to try and stop the UK from leaving. There would be every prospect then that an agreement could be concluded relatively quickly to achieve an outcome of mutual gain compared to both parties continuing to trade under WTO rules.

    The likely alternative is that we could see A50 being kicked down the road for years and years while the UK's future trading relations with both the EU and UK stay as uncertain as they have done for almost three years now. Even if May does eventually get her way there will be no end in sight thanks to the backstop.

    The first scenario of a very quick resolution hardly still merits the pejorative description of "crash out", if it ever did. The others merit the quite reasonable description of "countless more years of uncertainty". Or just "perpetual limbo".
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...


    Gibraltar, the Cypriot SBAs. Maybe there’s a couple of counties in Ulster that Leo has taken a fancy to as well...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:

    Just 1 country can veto an extension.

    The shopping list for Hammond to stump up for could be very long and expensive...

    But no country can veto a revocation.
    I now see how a revocation would appeal. But no PM would ever do it.
    A temporary one or one on the way out might.
    A country vetoing an extension may be justification to revoke....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    This strikes me as an odd comment. I'm sure it happens, but I'd have thought most despotic governments make sure you vote the right way the first time
    https://twitter.com/angiebUK/status/1106258275782324224

    To be fair, parliament are simply being asked to make SOME decision. Any one will do.
    Indeed. Just do something. The paralysis is becoming ridiculous.
    And yet parliament is doing what it is meant to do: reflect the will of the people. The will of the people is horribly divided and conflicted. The referendum was won 52:48 and all polls show Remain is now ahead, but only very narrowly. Basically we are split down the middle, just like the Commons.

    TMay’s most egregious error was not seeing that narrow win by Leave as a driver for compromise and Soft Brexit. EFTA or whatever. Instead, for stupid partisan reasons, she decided to take it as a decisive vote instructing her to seek a bloody Hard Brexit, scrawled with stupid red lines, She is politically autistic, if not actually autistic.
    But May's Brexit isn't hard enough for many MPs and a majority of MPs are Remain supporters.

    Is there any alternative which would have won over more of the Remain MPs than it lost Leave MPs ?
    Yes, Norway+CU, or even simply Norway with some sort of accomodation for Ireland. It would have fulfilled the referendum mandate and satisified the Remain majority in Parliament and many non-certifiable Brexiteers. But it would have split the Tory party in two, and May has shown that nothing, not even preserving the Union, is more important to her than keeping the Conservative party intact.

    And that is why we are where we are. Unless there’s a VONC and some sort of bizarre cross-party coalition of the not wholly insane formed next week, then the week after the UK will be going over into the abyss.
    That shows what the problem is - parliament has a Remain majority the Referendum had a Leave majority.

    And that Remain majority in parliament are more than happy to shaft both the Leave majority in the Referendum and the Leave majority Conservative party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    Stephen Barclay's statement suggests May might try to get a conditional extension and go for MV3 on March 25th.

    But doesn't the motion they just passed say that they need to pass the deal by the 20th?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    Danny565 said:

    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352

    I'd be quite happy with us "politically" leaving but "legally" staying in forever tbh.
    A rule taker not a rule maker...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Stephen Barclay's statement suggests May might try to get a conditional extension and go for MV3 on March 25th.

    But doesn't the motion they just passed say that they need to pass the deal by the 20th?
    Word is that MV: the sequel opens in a cinema near you on the 19th
  • From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited March 2019
    If the ERG try a trick to stop an extension the outrage would be huge amongst other more moderate Tories .

    And effectively a minority of MPs would be sending the country over a cliff .

    Remember the vote to stop no deal under any circumstances was won 321 to 278 , that included abstensions. So would be bigger if they voted against.

    If the ERG tried this MPs would vote for revocation and May would revoke then resign .
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    IanB2 said:

    If voters had got even a glimpse three years ago of the chaos that a Leave vote would thrust upon us, its only supporters would have been those expats in Australia, Dubai, California, Gibraltar and the rest, who want to see what happens simply for the popcorn value.

    Chaos in parliament yet not in the country.

    And at least we've seen what arseholes fill parliament.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    Stephen Barclay's statement suggests May might try to get a conditional extension and go for MV3 on March 25th.

    But doesn't the motion they just passed say that they need to pass the deal by the 20th?
    It says that if the deal has passed by then they will request a short extension, but if not they note that the EU might require a longer extension.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    We LEAVE two weeks tomorrow... :open_mouth:

    or we never leave
    Bad for the SNP then, all those rants over the last few years for nothing
    Only a rabid Tory could think that way. It will change things slightly but given the debacle and ignorance to Scotland a new referendum will be on cards in next year anyway.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Three by-elections today. There are two safe Labour seats in Durham and Croydon but a real bunfight in Southampton in what is technically an Independent defence.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    With a general election next month the Spanish government may want to have another quick look at Gibraltar over the coming days.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Don't we trust that his election predictions will be wrong ?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    edited March 2019
    Soooo.....do we all just twiddle the thumbs until Tuesday and MV3 now? Is that the latest grand plan?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    Two cheeks of the same arse Roger
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited March 2019
    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It looks like a leadership klaxon to me. The hardliner who was prepared to close the deal.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    kle4 said:

    OllyT said:

    The way May is trying to ram this through is disgusting. It really is. No compromise. No consensus. Her way, or the highway. Just a disgrace.

    How is she ramming it through. MPs have had so many chances and votes to stop it but they do not agree on anything
    This a massively important issue and she has made virtually no attempt to listen to anybody else. I will have no sympathy whatsoever if Bercow stops her repeatedly putting the same deal to the vote for a 3td or 4th time.

    How can she believe it's right for her to put a deal that has been massively defeated twice to a third vote whilst telling us it woUld totally undemocratic to have a second referendum.
    Parliamentary proceedings are different to national referendums shocker. The faux outrage and false equivalence on that score is astoundingly unconvincing. We couldn't offer up amendments to the original referendum question either, or set the nature of the question, for shame!

    And while I happen to agree that we need a second vote and to remain, do you really want us to be in a position wherein, hypothetically, parliament would want to eventually approve the deal but could not because of a procedural quirk? Should they not be allowed to vote for a second referendum now because one amendment on the subject at least was lost?
    I fully understand the constitutional difference but I don't think it alters my view that it hypocrisy of the first order. As MV3 and MV4 will be no different to MV2 I believe that the speaker would be correct to rule out putting the motion again because it will be the same motion.

    The reason that I hope he does that is that I do not believe she should be rewarded for refusing to explore any other alternative but just deliberately run the clock down in the hope that even though it is clear parliament doesn't want it they will have to accept it. I think she is actually treating parliament with contempt.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Danny565 said:

    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352

    I'd be quite happy with us "politically" leaving but "legally" staying in forever tbh.
    I think it's fairly likely a deal will have been agreed (a) between May and the EU and (b) the meaningful vote passed prior to 29 March, without having come into force at that date. So we'd need a short extension of A50 but it could still feel like we've "left" (if we wanted it to).
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    It looks like a leadership klaxon to me. The hardliner who was prepared to close the deal.
    He does seem to have split away from his mate Owen Paterson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    Trump suffers a Senate defeat as 12 Republicans join with Democrats to defeat his plans for emergency funding to build his wall with Mexico

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47569425
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Soooo.....do we all just twiddle the thumbs until Tuesday and MV3 now? Is that the latest grand plan?

    Unfortunately MV3 might be even later than that, so a lot more thumb twiddling
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Danny565 said:

    "Guess it depends on what leaving actually means..."

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1106265602451300352

    I'd be quite happy with us "politically" leaving but "legally" staying in forever tbh.
    I think it's fairly likely a deal will have been agreed (a) between May and the EU and (b) the meaningful vote passed prior to 29 March, without having come into force at that date. So we'd need a short extension of A50 but it could still feel like we've "left" (if we wanted it to).
    Schrödinger's Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,691
    edited March 2019

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.

    The reaction on their face is basically 'You were born when the Old Testament was written'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Love the telegraph item "Corbyn reiterates call for peoples vote but whips his mp's to abstain" lol
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    It looks like a leadership klaxon to me. The hardliner who was prepared to close the deal.

    The bloke who was wrong about everything. Those German car manufacturers never showed up and Davis ended up voting to put the country’s fate into the hands of 27 foreign governments.

  • kle4 said:
    It was.

    A Tory MP was locked in a toilet causing David Lightbown to break down the door.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited March 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    We LEAVE two weeks tomorrow... :open_mouth:

    or we never leave
    Bad for the SNP then, all those rants over the last few years for nothing
    During my lifetime the SNP has gone from having three MPs on the lunatic fringe of Scottish politics to being pretty much the only grown up political group in Westminster.
    All the SNP do is seek whatever excuse they can for independence, they are as single minded in their goals as the ERG or Corbynites
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    kle4 said:

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
    When's the petition deadline to see if Onasanya is ousted?
    Speaker votes for status quo, which would be the government.
    Your faith in Bercow's adherence to convention in the face of opportunities to frustrate Brexit is... admirable.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    RoyalBlue said:

    Somebody needs to do a poll for hypothetical European Parliament elections. Now.

    Something like this perhaps:

    TIG/Remain Alliance: 28%
    Conservatives: 20%
    Labour: 20%
    Nigel Farage Brexit Party: 15%
    UKIP: 13%
    Lib Dems: 3%
    TIG/Remain Alliance and the Brexit Party are too new to have the infrastructure to get out the vote in individual constituencies.
    I'd suggest TIG would need an (unofficial?) alliance with the Lib Dems and Brexit Party with UKIP.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited March 2019
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
    So you missed this bit then

    “The trio now hosts "The Grand Tour" on Amazon Prime Video, which instantly became one of the streaming service's MOST POPULAR SHOWS as the ratings for "Top Gear" plummetted.“

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/top-gear-replacing-matt-leblanc-with-two-british-stars

    I actually have some insider knowledge here. My wife’s stepmum, bizarrely, is the producer of The Grand Tour. It has been a massive hit for Prime - in terms of harvesting subscribers, which is what Bezos wanted. Bezos has used Clarkson and Co the way Murdoch once used football to boost Sky.

    “With this in mind, The Grand Tour actually turns out to be Amazon's best show at getting new subscribers to its Prime services, with a 'cost per first stream' of $49 compared to The Man in the High Castle's $63.“

    https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/a852454/amazons-most-expensive-tv-show-is-revealed-and-its-not-the-grand-tour/

    Apart from that, you make good points.
  • kle4 said:

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
    When's the petition deadline to see if Onasanya is ousted?
    Speaker votes for status quo, which would be the government.
    Technically that's not true.

    The Speaker votes as not to create a majority where none exists.

    As this is a minority government....
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    I missed a lot of the discussion albeit saw the votes - was it a free vote or whipped?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Really?

    Bloody hell.......................
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    slade said:

    Three by-elections today. There are two safe Labour seats in Durham and Croydon but a real bunfight in Southampton in what is technically an Independent defence.

    With UKIP and a UKIP splitter as well as various independents the Southampton one looks fun.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    I missed a lot of the discussion albeit saw the votes - was it a free vote or whipped?
    Free vote on the govt's side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    May seems to have found a formula to win votes with a minority of her own party while at the same time wagging her finger at parliament.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,819

    Soooo.....do we all just twiddle the thumbs until Tuesday and MV3 now? Is that the latest grand plan?

    Well I guess Operation MV3 will now swing into action. Might be more from Cox, Arlene is going to be round for tea a few times and I suspect we might get that declaration from TMay that she won’t go any further as PM once she gets the vote passed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    I missed a lot of the discussion albeit saw the votes - was it a free vote or whipped?
    Free vote on the govt's side.
    thanks
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
    So you missed this bit then

    “The trio now hosts "The Grand Tour" on Amazon Prime Video, which instantly became one of the streaming service's MOST POPULAR SHOWS as the ratings for "Top Gear" plummetted.“

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/top-gear-replacing-matt-leblanc-with-two-british-stars

    I actually have some insider knowledge here. My wife’s stepmum, bizarrely, is the producer of The Grand Tour. It has been a massive hit for Prime - in terms of harvesting subscribers, which is what Bezos wanted. Bezos has used Clarkson and Co the way Murdoch once used football to boost Sky.

    Amazons MOST POPULAR SHOWS is not an impressive thing despite the caps. It’s the same as Morecombe and Wise cashing it in on ITV in the early eighties.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
    That means you had 2 TV's and that is definitely Luxury
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
    So you missed this bit then

    “The trio now hosts "The Grand Tour" on Amazon Prime Video, which instantly became one of the streaming service's MOST POPULAR SHOWS as the ratings for "Top Gear" plummetted.“

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/top-gear-replacing-matt-leblanc-with-two-british-stars

    I actually have some insider knowledge here. My wife’s stepmum, bizarrely, is the producer of The Grand Tour. It has been a massive hit for Prime - in terms of harvesting subscribers, which is what Bezos wanted. Bezos has used Clarkson and Co the way Murdoch once used football to boost Sky.

    It varies a lot, but when they're on form they're as good as they were on the Beeb if not better, and they clearly have a bigger budget to play with. I saw a report that they're already filming the next season which will be entirely "specials" where the entire episode is dedicated to their shenanigans in some exotic locale - is that true?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
    We had Rediffusion - the original cable TV. We had a dial on a box on the wall that we had to use to change channels
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    According to the twitter:

    Hilary Benn's motion failed by two votes.
    Jared O'Mara and Fiona Onasanya abstained.

    Weird, she was apparently sitting with Benn earlier.
    Imagine if it had passed by one vote - Fiona's. (Or even more - if her vote meant a tie and the Speaker voted with Benn....)

    What larks, Pip.....
    When's the petition deadline to see if Onasanya is ousted?
    Speaker votes for status quo, which would be the government.
    Your faith in Bercow's adherence to convention in the face of opportunities to frustrate Brexit is... admirable.
    Let's be blunt - he would vote whichever way it took to prevent Brexit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    rpjs said:

    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    I missed a lot of the discussion albeit saw the votes - was it a free vote or whipped?
    Free vote on the govt's side.
    Clearly by necessity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    IanB2 said:

    If voters had got even a glimpse three years ago of the chaos that a Leave vote would thrust upon us, its only supporters would have been those expats in Australia, Dubai, California, Gibraltar and the rest, who want to see what happens simply for the popcorn value.

    And the ERGots.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Floater said:
    London needs a tougher Mayor
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Only 112 Tories voted for the government's motion. That's remarkable.

    May seems to have found a formula to win votes with a minority of her own party while at the same time wagging her finger at parliament.
    The answer is clear - vote for a Labour Brexit.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
    So you missed this bit then

    “The trio now hosts "The Grand Tour" on Amazon Prime Video, which instantly became one of the streaming service's MOST POPULAR SHOWS as the ratings for "Top Gear" plummetted.“

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/top-gear-replacing-matt-leblanc-with-two-british-stars

    I actually have some insider knowledge here. My wife’s stepmum, bizarrely, is the producer of The Grand Tour. It has been a massive hit for Prime - in terms of harvesting subscribers, which is what Bezos wanted. Bezos has used Clarkson and Co the way Murdoch once used football to boost Sky.

    Amazons MOST POPULAR SHOWS is not an impressive thing despite the caps. It’s the same as Morecombe and Wise cashing it in on ITV in the early eighties.
    Read my added paragraph

    https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/a852454/amazons-most-expensive-tv-show-is-revealed-and-its-not-the-grand-tour/


    “With this in mind, The Grand Tour actually turns out to be Amazon's best show at getting new subscribers to its Prime services, with a 'cost per first stream' of $49 compared to The Man in the High Castle's $63.”


    You don’t understand TV, you don’t understand streaming, you don’t understand what amazon Prine are doing, you don’t understand anything about this. You’re a loyal BBC license payer in the age of Netflix.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
    We had Rediffusion - the original cable TV. We had a dial on a box on the wall that we had to use to change channels
    My parents had two remote controls for the telly. Me and my brother!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
    We had Rediffusion - the original cable TV. We had a dial on a box on the wall that we had to use to change channels
    When I were a lad, we couldn't afford TV. We 'ad to make do with goldfish tank. And we didn't have goldfish!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    eek said:

    From another PB.

    LBC host Iain Dale says his favourite record is Cliff Richard's 'Miss You Nights'. (And people trust his opinions on stuff?)

    Loosely connected: I was explaining to a 24 year old yesterday who Hank Marvin was. I felt about 90.
    I had a similar experience last year.

    You really want to feel old, tell someone under the age of 30 that when we were kids to change the tv channel you had to stand up and press a button on your TV.
    You had a button to change channels ???

    Luxury.

    We had a tv without buttons and you had to move a dial to tune in to each station.

    And it was ..... black and white only.

    TBH it was only the kitchen TV.
    That means you had 2 TV's and that is definitely Luxury
    Actually we had three TVs.

    I had an old 60s TV in my bedroom - you had to hit it to keep the picture stable.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    rpjs said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting to compare the excellent Laura kuenssberg with the less than excellent Robert Peston who coveted the same political editor's job and on the surface seemed a more obvious choice.....

    .....Never doubt Auntie knows best.

    I can remember when you were reassuring us that “Auntie knew best”, and the “BBC would easily reinvent Top Gear without Jeremy Clarkson, he was just a buffoon, the format was the crucial thing, blah blah”

    That prediction aged well, didn’t it? Is Top Gear even a thing any more?

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/jun/01/matt-leblanc-exits-top-gear-time-to-be-sent-to-the-scrapheap
    Given that Clarkson didn’t do that well with Amazon, emulating Morecombe and Wise after they went to ITV, I don’t think the BBC lost anything much. Top Gear was tired. Amazon needed it more than the Beeb.
    So you missed this bit then

    “The trio now hosts "The Grand Tour" on Amazon Prime Video, which instantly became one of the streaming service's MOST POPULAR SHOWS as the ratings for "Top Gear" plummetted.“

    https://www.foxnews.com/auto/top-gear-replacing-matt-leblanc-with-two-british-stars

    I actually have some insider knowledge here. My wife’s stepmum, bizarrely, is the producer of The Grand Tour. It has been a massive hit for Prime - in terms of harvesting subscribers, which is what Bezos wanted. Bezos has used Clarkson and Co the way Murdoch once used football to boost Sky.

    It varies a lot, but when they're on form they're as good as they were on the Beeb if not better, and they clearly have a bigger budget to play with. I saw a report that they're already filming the next season which will be entirely "specials" where the entire episode is dedicated to their shenanigans in some exotic locale - is that true?

    I thought the latest series was the best on Prime, and almost as good as the very best throughout the BBC era, and probably more consistent. And better to watch because higher production values.

    They are shifting to specials - so I am quite reliably told - just because they are bored of the Top Gear live audience format. And the specials are more popular anyway.
This discussion has been closed.