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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of nex
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”
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I’m making no predictions as to first, mind.
edit: bugger.
3 who were not willing to do so have had the honesty to depart to the Tiggers. Good riddance. But many, many more need to be removed from both the Grieve wing and the ERG wing (pretty much en masse). If the Tories are to form the next government they need to be a coherent party. Right now they are not.
Next you’ll be backing Remain in a future referendum.
On topic the question is now how many of the ERG VONC the government not if.
A divided party will get gubbed at a general election.
We’re getting the double whammy of a No Deal and a Corbyn government.
Brexit lethally combines broad brush idealisms of various flavours with diabolically difficult detail of the sort generally left to people in the engine room and out of sight; they are obviously beyond the grasp of a good number of our MPs. This isn't going to change.
So, to either centrist Brexiteers or centrist Remainers, (ie most of us) what could a GE usefully achieve?
So a reasonable high chance, but less than the odds suggest.
Even if the Government falls in a vote of confidence, that primary legislation is still there if nothing more is done, and so we are still on course to leave in 2 weeks time.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/14/leaving-without-a-withdrawal-agreement-remains-the-default-position/
Betting PostF1: Backed Bottas at 17 (19 with boost) each way, fifth the odds top 3, to be the fastest qualifier.
The Ferraris and Hamilton are all bobbling around 3. If any one of them has an off day, or Bottas has a good day, or mechanical issues come into play, he's very likely (assuming Red Bull haven't sandbagged superbly) to end up in the top 3.
Whilst I think he's right to have longer odds, they're too long, I think.
Edited extra bit: just seen that Charlie Whiting, race director, has died suddenly. RIP.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/47564762
My piece on Sunday has over 100 links to Vote Leave saying No Deal wouldn’t happen.
I think we're certainly looking at a vote of confidence going down in the next week or two, and either a new PM (Gove, Cox? Still doesn't change the numbers though) or a forced election.
I think the only thing that holds off an election is No Deal on 29th March, which will most likely result in a short government of unity to sort out the immediate problems - before an election afterwards, probably in the autumn.
tl:dr 2019 is IMO value at odds-against.
We demand the meat but are disgusted by what goes on in the abattoir.
We demand a result but are disgusted by the bloody mess in parliament.
I don't want a no deal Brexit but it reflects the vote far more than remaining. It is absurd to say otherwise. Your logic is that people were unable to recognise that there was a risk that we would be unable to come to a satisfactory deal with the EU. I just don't believe that. They may have thought the risk was much smaller than it has turned out but they must have realised that nothing was guaranteed except leaving.
A good point. Jezza may get his wish, and might end up rueing the day.
Mr Mark,
FPT, "Of course, Labour could end "country has gone mad" within the hour, by saying that it will vote for May's Deal for the good of the country. I hope you are making that case to them, forcefully"
Labour are drifting slowly down in the polls, and many are pointing at the anti-Semite controversy. Around here, I've yet to hear anyone comment on antisemitism but they're queuing up to complain about MPs thinking only about party advantage and not the country.
Jezza's been rumbled. Mrs May is as useful as a chocolate fireguard but they're giving her credit for trying even if they don't agree with her. Odd, but there you go.
Remaining would be better than that.
Also, it seems that Hammond has been trying to explain that he voted against ruling out No Deal because he is totally opposed to leaving without a deal. And we let this guy near money.
How I yearn for the days when the Tories were just plain old nasty. Now they are nasty and incompetent.
For the death culters chaos is catharsis.
This could be Mark Francois:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEj1h7BC2b4
We might even be saying "cheerio" to some ERG-ers who think they can dick around because they have safe seats.
Which has a certain appeal.
Been an iffy season or two for me, though. Almost ever since that fantastic Verstappen winning bet.
It should be the case that a government found in contempt of parliament falls.
It should be the case that a government whose major piece of legislation is massively rejected falls
It should be the case that a government suffering open revolt inside the cabinet falls.
But it won't fall. Because nobody wants to be the government until Brexit has happened. If we crash out on 29th March I expect an immediate VONC during the ensuing chaos where it does fall, and an election campaign where both parties are effectively a loose coalition of warring factions with opposing policies attacking the factions more than each other. So yes, an election this year. Perhaps Ian Blackford will be the next Prime Minister.
The best way out of this, which sadly will not be offered by Corbyn or May, is now a further referendum offering Switzerland/Norway, May's Deal or No Deal. The original result is not reversed, but greater clarity will be found.
"If you forgive the IRA, then you must forgive the Parachute Regiment too
Lionel Shriver"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/if-you-forgive-the-ira-then-you-must-forgive-the-parachute-regiment-too/
Explains how the Tory poll rating holds up.
Most socialists I’ve met find Corbyn’s position laughable. Seriously.
Theres much the government has done which is silly, but people are just looking for things to pretend are silly now. If its changed it's no longer the motion theyd said they would back.
The logic being of course that if the Tories turf her out they might be in for a shock from the polls following.
Her treaty passes, the EU acts in good faith and she is the heroine of the decade. The sun shines, and the flying pigs supply shade.
I find it unbelievable that she won't be at the wheel to take us over/steer clear of the cliff on Mar 29th.
If we are in long extension or crashout territory on Mar 30th (or June 30th etc), I doubt it'll be long before she goes. But at least we're in *new* territory then, with a settled reality which has a fair chance of lasting beyond the election.
May’s deal and Norway/Swiss are not mutually exclusive outcomes. They are two different things.
* A permanent customs union with the EU
* Continued high levels of immigration (inevitable anyway, TIG)
* The UK following almost all EU rules and regulations
* Being a rule-taker, not a maker
* No meaningful free trade agreements
* No closer political union
* No right to free movement
* A healthier economic outlook
* More we’ll-paid jobs
* Higher levels of public spending
Is that about it?
One of the Germans who I met as we set up a German subsidiary got me a ticket.
Sky of course are coloured by their world-view that Brexit is stupid and anyone wanting to go down that route is insance.
I would guess that most of the population wants Brexit sorted, before we give the politicians a well-deserved kicking at another general election.
Worse for the tories of course, but labour would struggle too.
1. Today's vote: technical vote acknowledging and agreeing drivers for extension, but not forcing it. Amendment to full blown vote then rejection .possible.
2. SIs removing No Deal default as much as practicable from UK legislation. (Gov whip for, poss Fri sitting?)
3. MV3, acknowledging change of circumstances by removal of no deal
4. If MV3 fails, indicative rule in/out votes on extension reasons - e.g further negotiation around current WA, switch to CU, Second Referendum on current options. Preferred option selected.
(Here by 21/3!!!)
5. Ask EU for extension, if fails.....
6. MV4: explicitly stating that revocation will be result of MV4 failure.
7. If MV4 passes, second request for technical extension. Surely granted!!
Thoughts?
NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!
Those who oppose it would not be Conservative candidates.
We know, for instance, that some in the ERG, appear to be so purist/idiotic (take your pick, I know which one i’d go for) as to just keep voting against The Deal whether it means a long delay, no Brexit, the Earth crashing into the sun or whatever. I’m thinking Francois, how many others - maybe 10 in all?
So that instantly wipes the Tory majority and with the DUP 10 voting against pretty much acts as a blocker. Would the odd Labour MP supporting mitigate for this? I’m doubtful. They only got 3 last time, but I guess it depends how much minds are concentrated.
The key to unlocking all this seems to be somehow getting the DUP to at least abstain. Erm, answers on a postcard how Mrs May does that?