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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year on since Corbyn’s anti-semitic mural row and the issue

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    That looks like billions which could have been spent on the NHS.

    The tax loss equates to somewhere around 85% of our net annual contribution to the EU.

    So in that respect, you could say that the EU might be well on the way to making good the deficit to the their budget which would result from our leaving.

    It is only one part of what will be lost, of course. Other businesses are also relocating. yet more that might otherwise have come here will not. All this is a direct and entirely predictable consequence of the red lines that May drew. Brexit was always going to mean less inward investment and fewer opportunities. May exacerbated it - cheered on by the swivel-eyed Buccaneers.

    I'm mildly surprised the figures aren't being challenged (or dismissed) by the Buccaneers.
    We've had reports for years that tax revenues are going to be damaged etc

    While it may eventually be true the evidence so far is tax revenues coming in better than expected.
    And what has clearly not happened is the 200,000+ job losses in the UK financial sector we were told would have happened by now.

    And neither do we have countless free trade agreements with countries across the world or a deal with the EU that has all the benefits of membership and none of the downsides. Instead, we are less than three weeks from leaving on terms that absolutely no-one set out at the time of the referendum.

    All that shows is that our politicians, and Liam Fox specifically, are incompetents and they would be incompetents whether we had voted Leave or voted Remain.

    But those 200,000+ financial job losses which you Remainers assured us would have happened by now haven't happened.

    So what does that make the people who claimed those job losses were going to happen ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    Speaking from a hotel in sunny Bangkok it’s hard to get a grasp of where things are in Brexitland

    Shall we do a round up of Pb-ers expected outcomes? Here are my latest thoughts, in descending order


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    Last minute TM deal with fudge and a technical extension for the legislation 90%
    No deal 5%
    Remainer coup 5%

    Hopeful, very hopeful.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,628
    Pulpstar said:

    On McDonnell, my main concern about him being a contender to succeed Corbyn is his age; he is only 2 years younger than Jezza. Mind you I've backed Biden, Bernie and Trump...

    What an inspiring bunch of oldies.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    That looks like billions which could have been spent on the NHS.

    The tax loss equates to somewhere around 85% of our net annual contribution to the EU.

    So in that respect, you could say that the EU might be well on the way to making good the deficit to the their budget which would result from our leaving.

    It is only one part of what will be lost, of course. Other businesses are also relocating. yet more that might otherwise have come here will not. All this is a direct and entirely predictable consequence of the red lines that May drew. Brexit was always going to mean less inward investment and fewer opportunities. May exacerbated it - cheered on by the swivel-eyed Buccaneers.

    I'm mildly surprised the figures aren't being challenged (or dismissed) by the Buccaneers.
    We've had reports for years that tax revenues are going to be damaged etc

    While it may eventually be true the evidence so far is tax revenues coming in better than expected.
    And what has clearly not happened is the 200,000+ job losses in the UK financial sector we were told would have happened by now.

    And neither do we have countless free trade agreements with countries across the world or a deal with the EU that has all the benefits of membership and none of the downsides. Instead, we are less than three weeks from leaving on terms that absolutely no-one set out at the time of the referendum.

    All that shows is that our politicians, and Liam Fox specifically, are incompetents and they would be incompetents whether we had voted Leave or voted Remain.

    But those 200,000+ financial job losses which you Remainers assured us would have happened by now haven't happened.

    So what does that make the people who claimed those job losses were going to happen ?

    I think you'll struggle to find anything from me making any claim resembling one that 200,000 jobs in the financial sector would be gone by now. In fact, what I predicted Brexit would lead to is exactly what is happening now - except the bit about our politicians being so utterly incompetent. Not even I was expecting that.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2019
    SeanT said:

    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Pulpstar said:

    On McDonnell, my main concern about him being a contender to succeed Corbyn is his age; he is only 2 years younger than Jezza. Mind you I've backed Biden, Bernie and Trump...

    What an inspiring bunch of oldies.
    My mind immediately springs to Fidel and Raul Castro
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902
    Perhaps what worries me most about all this isn't whether we leave the EU or not and how but the general and almost visceral contempt in which all politicians now seem to be held.

    We see it here - as soon as someone's name is mentioned, from whatever side, in go the verbal Doc Martens amid a general notion of "incompetence" and, if we're lucky, a wistful nostalgic notion of how the generation which brought us Suez would have done better.

    Do we get the politicians we deserve? I'm not sure - do we get the political system we deserve? Maybe. I'm of the view we need a root-and-branch review and a national debate about how our politics functions from the role of parties to the structures to the electoral system. If we are looking, post-EU, to design a country and society for the 21st Century, then we need the political structures, forms and leadership to mirror and empower that.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    He holds the 20th safest Conservative seat and is one good example of the weakness of the current voting system.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Brom said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston is just a ludicrous figure. Recall she actually campaigned for Leave and then had a Damascene conversion at the 11th hour and decided Leaving was literally insane even though she’d been campaigning for it for months.

    She was so clearly a Cameroon cuckoo planted in the Leave nest, meant to explode Leave from within. It was mortifying. No doubt she did it because Cameron promised her some job after he’d won. Oh dear. That worked out well.

    Wollaston summarizes everything wrong with our politics. She is as foolish and unprincipled as they come. And I readily confess brexit has revealed some utterly clueless morons on the Leave side as well.

    What did we do to deserve this?
    If Carole Codswallop is looking for people to investigate regarding misleading the public then Wollaston should be at the front of the queue ahead of Arron Banks. There are plenty of incompetent MPs on both sides of the Brexit debate but none as dodgy as Wollaston.
    The mad Brexiters are still foaming as their utterly wretched project brings the country to the brink.

    As far as I can tell, Ms Woollaston stared into the abyss of Brexit and then rather wisely stepped back.

    That makes her smarter than every single Brexiter on this board including such luminaries as SeanT, Charles, and the great rcs1000 himself.
    You actually seriously literally believe this? That Wollaston was a convinced Leaver, so much so she campaigned for it, then had a 180 degree conversion a minute before the referendum? This is the same Wollaston who is now such a zealous Remainer she has quit the Tory party to argue for a second referendum.

    Believing her idiotic lies makes you stupider than the cheapest IKEA sofa cushion, let alone any sentient organism.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Nigelb said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston is just a ludicrous figure. Recall she actually campaigned for Leave and then had a Damascene conversion at the 11th hour and decided Leaving was literally insane even though she’d been campaigning for it for months.

    She was so clearly a Cameroon cuckoo planted in the Leave nest, meant to explode Leave from within. It was mortifying. No doubt she did it because Cameron promised her some job after he’d won. Oh dear. That worked out well.

    Wollaston summarizes everything wrong with our politics. She is as foolish and unprincipled as they come. And I readily confess brexit has revealed some utterly clueless morons on the Leave side as well.

    What did we do to deserve this?
    Didn't you vote for it ?

    Yes.

    I don’t know how I would vote in a 2nd referendum.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    stodge said:

    Perhaps what worries me most about all this isn't whether we leave the EU or not and how but the general and almost visceral contempt in which all politicians now seem to be held.

    We see it here - as soon as someone's name is mentioned, from whatever side, in go the verbal Doc Martens amid a general notion of "incompetence" and, if we're lucky, a wistful nostalgic notion of how the generation which brought us Suez would have done better.

    Do we get the politicians we deserve? I'm not sure - do we get the political system we deserve? Maybe. I'm of the view we need a root-and-branch review and a national debate about how our politics functions from the role of parties to the structures to the electoral system. If we are looking, post-EU, to design a country and society for the 21st Century, then we need the political structures, forms and leadership to mirror and empower that.

    I would agree but I come back to my perennial point that the main problem is the power wielded by political parties. If MPs were more properly answerable to their constituents rather than to party managers then we would have a much better functioning political system across the board.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    They are also saying this is in addition to the 39bill.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    TGOHF said:

    If you think the EU are inflexible on May's deal - wait until you see them on an extension.

    The MPs vote on the terms of the extension will be fun - I totes think that £ Billion for 3 months is well worth it and I commend that the taxpayer money to be sent to Brussels.

    Also if by a miracle they ever got there, on the actual trade deal rather than just how to discuss one. A real reaming they will give the UK on that one given May has surrendered everything up front.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    They are also saying this is in addition to the 39bill.
    The story is a pack of lies . The EU have said there’s no more money to pay , the UK obligations remain the same even with an extension .
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Sean_F said:

    There are 250 or so MP's, (Remain and Leave) who are prepared to compromise to achieve Brexit, and 400 or so who are not.

    There has never been a majority of MPs who favour Brexit. Everything that has happened since the referendum has been an excerise in stopping Brexit (or forcing BINO) and finding a way of making someone else carry the can for doing so.

    It will likely work, but MPs are opening Pandora's box.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    For the sake of balance we can also surely agree that Will Self is a smug, nasty, supercilious wanker, even if his early short stories were brilliant.

    It was a genius move by the BBC to get these two tossers together. They should have their own show.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
    Basically agree, but for every additional extension, subtract 5% from Deal and No Deal and add 10% to Further Extension.

    PS I vaguely recall something about late projects - I think this is in a Nassim Taleb book - where it's taken x days so far, the best-guess ETA is another x days. So if Brexit isn't done this month, you guess end 2022, and then 2027, and then...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
    Basically agree, but for every additional extension, subtract 5% from Deal and No Deal and add 10% to Further Extension.

    PS I vaguely recall something about late projects - I think this is in a Nassim Taleb book - where it's taken x days so far, the best-guess ETA is another x days. So if Brexit isn't done this month, you guess end 2022, and then 2027, and then...
    Yes, I'm really not sure what happens after extension 1. So 50-50 exit/further extension it is.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    nico67 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    They are also saying this is in addition to the 39bill.
    The story is a pack of lies . The EU have said there’s no more money to pay , the UK obligations remain the same even with an extension .
    Actually I would suggest that whilst it may not be a direct quote from the EU (they would not be that daft) it is in fact accurate as a reflection of what would happen.

    The £39 billion covers the amount the EU say we owe for programmes plus ongoing membership fees for the transition period. If the transition period is delayed then the start of the payment of the £39 billion is delayed and we continue to pay as a member of the EU - which would indeed cost somewhere around £1 billion a month.

    This is not some additional cost being heaped on us by the EU but a cost we are ourselves putting on the country by postponing leaving.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited March 2019

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.

    I think the rule of thumb with Brexit from here is to imagine the worst outcome and go with that. On that basis, I expect No Deal because no-one has managed to find a way to prevent it.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2019

    On another subject, a perhaps surprising poll showing that Labour members back the return of Stop & Search:

    https://labourlist.org/2019/03/labour-should-back-stop-and-search-to-deal-with-knife-crime-say-labourlist-readers/

    The victims don't live in the stockbroker belt.

    Though the poll is roughly 50/50; not that polls are a good way of solving complex problems in the first place. #Brexit.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Pulpstar said:

    On McDonnell, my main concern about him being a contender to succeed Corbyn is his age; he is only 2 years younger than Jezza. Mind you I've backed Biden, Bernie and Trump...

    What an inspiring bunch of oldies.
    The baby boomer generation just won't FO. Truly the narcissist, look at me generation.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.

    I think the rule of thumb with Brexit from here is to imagine the worst outcome and go with that. On that basis, I expect No Deal because no-one has managed to find a way to prevent it.

    But as I say that reflects your view of Brexit overall. You may be right (though of course I disagree with you) but it doesn't really translate into realistic odds. If one is being honest the only real answer at the moment is 'who knows?'
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I'd like to clarify that I am strongly opposed to an Anglo-Manx war
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    Time to get extension off the table? :D
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
    Basically agree, but for every additional extension, subtract 5% from Deal and No Deal and add 10% to Further Extension.

    PS I vaguely recall something about late projects - I think this is in a Nassim Taleb book - where it's taken x days so far, the best-guess ETA is another x days. So if Brexit isn't done this month, you guess end 2022, and then 2027, and then...
    That's a general rule for anything where you have to make an estimate of duration in the absence of any information. How long will Hadrian's Wall last? It's been there since the third century so the best bet is until around the year 4,000. So applying the same rule Brexit will finally be cancelled in about 3 years time.

    You read it here first.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I'd like to clarify that I am strongly opposed to an Anglo-Manx war
    LOL. We should try and work out who would win that one.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
    Basically agree, but for every additional extension, subtract 5% from Deal and No Deal and add 10% to Further Extension.

    PS I vaguely recall something about late projects - I think this is in a Nassim Taleb book - where it's taken x days so far, the best-guess ETA is another x days. So if Brexit isn't done this month, you guess end 2022, and then 2027, and then...
    Zeno’s Brexit
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    On another subject, a perhaps surprising poll showing that Labour members back the return of Stop & Search:

    https://labourlist.org/2019/03/labour-should-back-stop-and-search-to-deal-with-knife-crime-say-labourlist-readers/

    The victims don't live in the stockbroker belt.

    Though the poll is roughly 50/50; not that polls are a good way of solving complex problems in the first place. #Brexit.
    they'll support stop and search until a tory is in charge, and then they'll oppose it again....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.

    I think the rule of thumb with Brexit from here is to imagine the worst outcome and go with that. On that basis, I expect No Deal because no-one has managed to find a way to prevent it.

    But as I say that reflects your view of Brexit overall. You may be right (though of course I disagree with you) but it doesn't really translate into realistic odds. If one is being honest the only real answer at the moment is 'who knows?'
    If nobody has any idea, I guess you should lay the favourites, since for all anyone knows they're exactly as likely as everything else.

    In reality you can make reasonable guesses, and for example my take isn't *wildly* different from SeanT's, and also SeanT's isn't that different from last time he posted, when he probably had a completely different opinion about what he wanted.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.

    I think the rule of thumb with Brexit from here is to imagine the worst outcome and go with that. On that basis, I expect No Deal because no-one has managed to find a way to prevent it.

    But as I say that reflects your view of Brexit overall. You may be right (though of course I disagree with you) but it doesn't really translate into realistic odds. If one is being honest the only real answer at the moment is 'who knows?'

    Fair point!

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I have no idea what will happen and don't know how anyone can assess the likelihood of any outcome. I think the last few months have proven that there is no logic to Parliamentary votes or May's reactions to them.

    I think the rule of thumb with Brexit from here is to imagine the worst outcome and go with that. On that basis, I expect No Deal because no-one has managed to find a way to prevent it.

    But as I say that reflects your view of Brexit overall. You may be right (though of course I disagree with you) but it doesn't really translate into realistic odds. If one is being honest the only real answer at the moment is 'who knows?'

    Well of course no one knows. Especially with brexit. But this is a betting website, and we are (not) paid to come up with odds, however difficult.

    FWIW my guess did not reflect my preferred outcome, which right now is a short extension then Norway plus, with temporary CU membership to deal with the Irish problem

    We would then stay in EFTA for a decade before pivoting further away. I think the Irish problem would swiftly recede over time as ulster realized it was getting a very good deal.

    Sadly the chances of this are down there with Anglo-Chinese war.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    They are also saying this is in addition to the 39bill.
    The story is a pack of lies . The EU have said there’s no more money to pay , the UK obligations remain the same even with an extension .
    Actually I would suggest that whilst it may not be a direct quote from the EU (they would not be that daft) it is in fact accurate as a reflection of what would happen.

    The £39 billion covers the amount the EU say we owe for programmes plus ongoing membership fees for the transition period. If the transition period is delayed then the start of the payment of the £39 billion is delayed and we continue to pay as a member of the EU - which would indeed cost somewhere around £1 billion a month.

    This is not some additional cost being heaped on us by the EU but a cost we are ourselves putting on the country by postponing leaving.
    The extension say its 3 months just replaces that part of the transition which has already been paid for . The DT is running this pack of lies to dupe people.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:


    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 25%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Chinese war: 5%

    What do others think?

    0. Endless extensions: 20%
    1. Extension plus referendum: 30%
    2. No deal crash Brexit, March 29: 5%
    3. TMay deal passes (maybe after short extension): 20%
    4. Extension plus GE: 15%
    5. Just go right out there and Revoke: 5%
    6. Black Swan/Anglo-Manx war: 5%
    For the 29th March deadline I'll go

    Extension 90%
    No deal 10%

    Once we've extended, we get into recursive extensions:

    Further Extension 50%
    Deal 25%
    No deal 25%
    Basically agree, but for every additional extension, subtract 5% from Deal and No Deal and add 10% to Further Extension.

    PS I vaguely recall something about late projects - I think this is in a Nassim Taleb book - where it's taken x days so far, the best-guess ETA is another x days. So if Brexit isn't done this month, you guess end 2022, and then 2027, and then...
    That's a general rule for anything where you have to make an estimate of duration in the absence of any information. How long will Hadrian's Wall last? It's been there since the third century so the best bet is until around the year 4,000. So applying the same rule Brexit will finally be cancelled in about 3 years time.

    You read it here first.
    By coincidence, three years time is when a general election is due.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    Scott_P said:
    The reason there is not more outrage is because few people expect very much of politicians, and few people are very strongly committed to EU membership.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    SeanT said:

    Brom said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston is just a ludicrous figure. Recall she actually campaigned for Leave and then had a Damascene conversion at the 11th hour and decided Leaving was literally insane even though she’d been campaigning for it for months.

    She was so clearly a Cameroon cuckoo planted in the Leave nest, meant to explode Leave from within. It was mortifying. No doubt she did it because Cameron promised her some job after he’d won. Oh dear. That worked out well.

    Wollaston summarizes everything wrong with our politics. She is as foolish and unprincipled as they come. And I readily confess brexit has revealed some utterly clueless morons on the Leave side as well.

    What did we do to deserve this?
    If Carole Codswallop is looking for people to investigate regarding misleading the public then Wollaston should be at the front of the queue ahead of Arron Banks. There are plenty of incompetent MPs on both sides of the Brexit debate but none as dodgy as Wollaston.
    The mad Brexiters are still foaming as their utterly wretched project brings the country to the brink.

    As far as I can tell, Ms Woollaston stared into the abyss of Brexit and then rather wisely stepped back.

    That makes her smarter than every single Brexiter on this board including such luminaries as SeanT, Charles, and the great rcs1000 himself.
    You actually seriously literally believe this? That Wollaston was a convinced Leaver, so much so she campaigned for it, then had a 180 degree conversion a minute before the referendum? This is the same Wollaston who is now such a zealous Remainer she has quit the Tory party to argue for a second referendum.

    Believing her idiotic lies makes you stupider than the cheapest IKEA sofa cushion, let alone any sentient organism.
    WRT Wollaston's "conversion" it must be frustrating to be an opportunist, and then to find out you're not even good at being an opportunist.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    So Nick, we'd go off to an election - with nothing having replaced No Deal Bexit on 29th March.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
    A significant slow down/recession in the EU will inevitably put horrendous pressure on the deficits of the weaker EU countries, especially Italy and France with significant risks that the Spanish and Portuguese debt going over 100% of GDP again.

    How will Germany react to spiraling deficits in its currency? My guess is that more countries will get the Greek treatment (they are currently in surplus) and budgets will be savagely cut with serious social consequences.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    He would lose the whip if he did and would be replaced in any ensuing election. Might make it easier to find a majority.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Telegraph suggesting that an extension will cost at least £1bn per month.

    What a bargain eh - will your MP sign up for your taxes to be spent on that ?

    They are also saying this is in addition to the 39bill.
    The story is a pack of lies . The EU have said there’s no more money to pay , the UK obligations remain the same even with an extension .
    Actually I would suggest that whilst it may not be a direct quote from the EU (they would not be that daft) it is in fact accurate as a reflection of what would happen.

    The £39 billion covers the amount the EU say we owe for programmes plus ongoing membership fees for the transition period. If the transition period is delayed then the start of the payment of the £39 billion is delayed and we continue to pay as a member of the EU - which would indeed cost somewhere around £1 billion a month.

    This is not some additional cost being heaped on us by the EU but a cost we are ourselves putting on the country by postponing leaving.
    The extension say its 3 months just replaces that part of the transition which has already been paid for . The DT is running this pack of lies to dupe people.
    Um no. There is no extension agreed at present and so there is absolutely no knowledge of what that extension might entail. We can't even agree how long we would ask for let alone what the EU would accept or the provisos they would put on it. The basic facts of the Telegraph story are reasonable. If we ask for an extension the chances are it would cost us somewhere in the region of the £1 billion a month they are quoting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited March 2019

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    One wonders why his constituents voted in such a fanatic but I guess that is their perogative.


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    So Nick, we'd go off to an election - with nothing having replaced No Deal Bexit on 29th March.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?
    It doesn’t mean an immediate election. First the HoC would try to assemble an alternative government.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    It is interesting looking at the predictions on here this morning and seeing how in % terms they tend to follow people's personal views on what they would like to see happen.

    I'd like to clarify that I am strongly opposed to an Anglo-Manx war
    LOL. We should try and work out who would win that one.
    The Manx probably have enough money tucked away in various boltholes to hire a topnotch mercenary army.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    So Nick, we'd go off to an election - with nothing having replaced No Deal Bexit on 29th March.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?
    It doesn’t mean an immediate election. First the HoC would try to assemble an alternative government.
    Do you feel lucky, punk?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    So Nick, we'd go off to an election - with nothing having replaced No Deal Bexit on 29th March.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?
    It doesn’t mean an immediate election. First the HoC would try to assemble an alternative government.
    Do you feel lucky, punk?
    Things looking very shaky for May.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
    A significant slow down/recession in the EU will inevitably put horrendous pressure on the deficits of the weaker EU countries, especially Italy and France with significant risks that the Spanish and Portuguese debt going over 100% of GDP again.

    How will Germany react to spiraling deficits in its currency? My guess is that more countries will get the Greek treatment (they are currently in surplus) and budgets will be savagely cut with serious social consequences.
    The Remainers will be along to tell us why they want to shackle us to this corpse in 5, 4, 3....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
    Indeed.

    I think we have reached the very end of what May can achieve in her time in office. Time to go now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    Nick Boles is implying he’d VONC the government if May messes around with the timetable for votes this week.

    https://twitter.com/nickboles/status/1105056734052315137?s=21

    So Nick, we'd go off to an election - with nothing having replaced No Deal Bexit on 29th March.

    Do you feel lucky, punk?
    Yep, messing around trying to find an alternative government followed by an election campaign should run down the clock to 29th... ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-40721755

    O/T but I think @DavidL described him as the most evil man he had ever met
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
    Indeed.

    I think we have reached the very end of what May can achieve in her time in office. Time to go now.

    Has she achieved anything in her time in office (other than blowing a majority) ? :D
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
    A significant slow down/recession in the EU will inevitably put horrendous pressure on the deficits of the weaker EU countries, especially Italy and France with significant risks that the Spanish and Portuguese debt going over 100% of GDP again.

    How will Germany react to spiraling deficits in its currency? My guess is that more countries will get the Greek treatment (they are currently in surplus) and budgets will be savagely cut with serious social consequences.
    The Remainers will be along to tell us why they want to shackle us to this corpse in 5, 4, 3....
    Maybe, maybe not but it is hardly up for debate that the timing of Brexit has not proven propitious. It makes the failure, hypocrisy and just basic stupidity of our political class even harder to forgive.

    What do we want? An end to uncertainty! When do we want it? Well a year past last Christmas would have been handy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
    Indeed.

    I think we have reached the very end of what May can achieve in her time in office. Time to go now.

    Has she achieved anything in her time in office (other than blowing a majority) ? :D
    Cockroach like survival and world championship can kicking.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Brom said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:
    Wollaston is just a ludicrous figure. Recall she actually campaigned for Leave and then had a Damascene conversion at the 11th hour and decided Leaving was literally insane even though she’d been campaigning for it for months.

    She was so clearly a Cameroon cuckoo planted in the Leave nest, meant to explode Leave from within. It was mortifying. No doubt she did it because Cameron promised her some job after he’d won. Oh dear. That worked out well.

    Wollaston summarizes everything wrong with our politics. She is as foolish and unprincipled as they come. And I readily confess brexit has revealed some utterly clueless morons on the Leave side as well.

    What did we do to deserve this?
    If Carole Codswallop is looking for people to investigate regarding misleading the public then Wollaston should be at the front of the queue ahead of Arron Banks. There are plenty of incompetent MPs on both sides of the Brexit debate but none as dodgy as Wollaston.
    The mad Brexiters are still foaming as their utterly wretched project brings the country to the brink.

    As far as I can tell, Ms Woollaston stared into the abyss of Brexit and then rather wisely stepped back.

    That makes her smarter than every single Brexiter on this board including such luminaries as SeanT, Charles, and the great rcs1000 himself.
    You actually seriously literally believe this? That Wollaston was a convinced Leaver, so much so she campaigned for it, then had a 180 degree conversion a minute before the referendum? This is the same Wollaston who is now such a zealous Remainer she has quit the Tory party to argue for a second referendum.

    Believing her idiotic lies makes you stupider than the cheapest IKEA sofa cushion, let alone any sentient organism.
    WRT Wollaston's "conversion" it must be frustrating to be an opportunist, and then to find out you're not even good at being an opportunist.
    Quite. She’s like the guy in A Man For All Seasons who sold his soul for... Wales. Except in this case he didn’t even get Wales.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-40721755

    O/T but I think @DavidL described him as the most evil man he had ever met

    He was genuinely terrifying. His eyes were black holes in his head. Just being in the same room as him was uncomfortable. It may be true that no man is an island etc but the world is a better place for his passing.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    Yes - although did I detect him not forcefully trashing the Deal As Amended on R4 on Saturday? It struck me as relatively grown-up for him.. at least leaving some wiggle-room if he had to reverse ferret to save Brexit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    On topic: There was an extremely revealing post by Nick Palmer on the previous thread. In response to my comment that the mural which Corbyn seemed to like was "absolutely, obviously and unambiguously anti-semitic", Nick replied:

    Well, I'm of a similar age and background, and I've just had a look myself - like Recidivist, I can't say I saw it as you do. The most prominent things are the Illuminati symbol (which I only know from the card game about silly conspiracy theories) and the Monopoly board - the people sitting round it are presumably supposed to be old-fashioned wicked capitalists. It wouldn't occur to me that they were Jewish. I'm not denying that it's obvious to you (and apparently many others), just pointing out that different people see the same things differently.

    I don't want to lay into Nick personally on this, but you really couldn't ask for a clearer explanation of how the mindset of the hard-left segues so easily into anti-semitic populism, similar to that of Nazi Germany, or of Charles Coughlin, Henry Ford and the America First Committee of 1930s America.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    Yes - although did I detect him not forcefully trashing the Deal As Amended on R4 on Saturday? It struck me as relatively grown-up for him.. at least leaving some wiggle-room if he had to reverse ferret to save Brexit.
    The sad thing is that being odious and crap makes him very run of the mill in this Parliament. Nothing exceptional at all.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
    A significant slow down/recession in the EU will inevitably put horrendous pressure on the deficits of the weaker EU countries, especially Italy and France with significant risks that the Spanish and Portuguese debt going over 100% of GDP again.

    How will Germany react to spiraling deficits in its currency? My guess is that more countries will get the Greek treatment (they are currently in surplus) and budgets will be savagely cut with serious social consequences.
    The Remainers will be along to tell us why they want to shackle us to this corpse in 5, 4, 3....
    Maybe, maybe not but it is hardly up for debate that the timing of Brexit has not proven propitious. It makes the failure, hypocrisy and just basic stupidity of our political class even harder to forgive.

    What do we want? An end to uncertainty! When do we want it? Well a year past last Christmas would have been handy.
    Fascinating article in (iirc) the FT today. The anointed successor to Merkel has responded to Macron’s impassioned call for ‘more europe’. The Germans are saying OK, you can have more Europe, but France must give up her UN SC seat and make it an EU seat, and the ludicrous 2nd parliament in Strasbourg must be closed down as a waste of money.

    Basically they are challenging Macron to show he’s serious, and not just another myopic Frenchman pretending to be European just so long as it benefits France. My guess is Macron will turn out to be the latter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    Yes - although did I detect him not forcefully trashing the Deal As Amended on R4 on Saturday? It struck me as relatively grown-up for him.. at least leaving some wiggle-room if he had to reverse ferret to save Brexit.
    The sad thing is that being odious and crap makes him very run of the mill in this Parliament. Nothing exceptional at all.
    What's odd is that he got a degree from a good university, but appears to be as thick as pigshit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    SeanT said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    SeanT said:

    TGOHF said:
    There are worrying signs that the world economy is headed for a major recession, especially Europe. Brexit ain’t helping.

    I seriously wonder if the Eurozone will survive another slump without drastic reform - or the departure of various weaker states.
    A significant slow down/recession in the EU will inevitably put horrendous pressure on the deficits of the weaker EU countries, especially Italy and France with significant risks that the Spanish and Portuguese debt going over 100% of GDP again.

    How will Germany react to spiraling deficits in its currency? My guess is that more countries will get the Greek treatment (they are currently in surplus) and budgets will be savagely cut with serious social consequences.
    The Remainers will be along to tell us why they want to shackle us to this corpse in 5, 4, 3....
    Maybe, maybe not but it is hardly up for debate that the timing of Brexit has not proven propitious. It makes the failure, hypocrisy and just basic stupidity of our political class even harder to forgive.

    What do we want? An end to uncertainty! When do we want it? Well a year past last Christmas would have been handy.
    Fascinating article in (iirc) the FT today. The anointed successor to Merkel has responded to Macron’s impassioned call for ‘more europe’. The Germans are saying OK, you can have more Europe, but France must give up her UN SC seat and make it an EU seat, and the ludicrous 2nd parliament in Strasbourg must be closed down as a waste of money.

    Basically they are challenging Macron to show he’s serious, and not just another myopic Frenchman pretending to be European just so long as it benefits France. My guess is Macron will turn out to be the latter.
    I trust that you are not looking for odds on that one!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
    Indeed.

    I think we have reached the very end of what May can achieve in her time in office. Time to go now.

    Has she achieved anything in her time in office (other than blowing a majority) ? :D

    TBF:
    * She's exposed the bullshitters like Boris and Davis as bullshitters. I mean, they hanged themselves, but she gave them the rope
    * She's negotiated a deal which, if you buy the basic premise - that you have to control EU immigration, but then want to minimize the related economic damage - is as good as could be expected, maybe better
    * She hasn't joined any stupid wars that made things worse than if the British had stayed at home playing Microsoft Flight Simulator, which may sound like a low bar but neither Blair nor Cameron managed to clear it
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Scott_P said:
    That's serious. That means Something Has Changed.

    When Nothing Has Changed, she gets out the lectern, trails it for hours in advance, and then says nothing. She's not doing that, ergo something must have changed.

    Oh, who am I kidding. I have no idea what's happening in this shitshow right now and neither does anyone else.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    May gone by the end of the week . Resigns and asks for an extension to let a new leader to take over .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    Yes - although did I detect him not forcefully trashing the Deal As Amended on R4 on Saturday? It struck me as relatively grown-up for him.. at least leaving some wiggle-room if he had to reverse ferret to save Brexit.
    The sad thing is that being odious and crap makes him very run of the mill in this Parliament. Nothing exceptional at all.
    What's odd is that he got a degree from a good university, but appears to be as thick as pigshit.
    And Wollaston is a doctor (as if Fox, of course). Why do they all behave as ignorant morons? Is it what they think we want to hear?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    nico67 said:

    May gone by the end of the week . Resigns and asks for an extension to let a new leader to take over .

    To be honest I think that would be the honourable thing to do. She has failed utterly.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    GIN1138 said:

    SeanT said:
    FFS losing your flagship policy by 200 votes should be a resigning matter!
    Indeed.

    I think we have reached the very end of what May can achieve in her time in office. Time to go now.

    Has she achieved anything in her time in office (other than blowing a majority) ? :D

    TBF:
    * She's exposed the bullshitters like Boris and Davis as bullshitters. I mean, they hanged themselves, but she gave them the rope
    * She's negotiated a deal which, if you buy the basic premise - that you have to control EU immigration, but then want to minimize the related economic damage - is as good as could be expected, maybe better
    * She hasn't joined any stupid wars that made things worse than if the British had stayed at home playing Microsoft Flight Simulator, which may sound like a low bar but neither Blair nor Cameron managed to clear it
    If we accept that appointing Boris and Davis to the Cabinet was part of a deliberate strategy to expose their incompetence, why is such recklessness to May's credit?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    May gone by the end of the week . Resigns and asks for an extension to let a new leader to take over .

    To be honest I think that would be the honourable thing to do. She has failed utterly.
    It’s probably easier for Tory MPs to support an extension under the guise that a new leader would need time to reset the negotiations . It’s likely a new PM would be a hard Brexiter which would please the ERG nutjobs . And that PM can then go chasing unicorns !
  • I’m with Gove.

    The harder the Brexit, the quicker we Rejoin.

    No Deal ASAP please.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    Scott_P said:
    Maybe she’s having a Hillary on the night of the election style meltdown and isn’t up to appearing in public.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    The fact Boris, Farage and Corbyn are against it is an encouraging sign that it's a good deal.

    That said, it is strange and disturbing to find myself on the same side as Michael Gove.

    ydoethur, It is as crap as it ever was and is going down. May is a nasty bit of work and time some of the Tory jellies got a backbone and showed her the door. This clearly shows what years of promoting your inbred chums does.
    May has faults but I don't think even her enemies call her 'a nasty bit of work', cybernat in overdrive there
    Take those blue specs off, she has the country on the brink of disaster all to further her own ends, despicable woman is the most polite thing I could post.
    May has negotiated the only Deal available from the EU but not course for you destruction of the Union is the be all and end all
    Don't be silly, there were always plenty of other deals available from the EU (e.g see Nick Palmer's post upthread on what Corbyn could do) but myopic May does not have the wit or the vision to consider them. She set out her own red lines without serious debate or consultation then arbitarily ditched some whilst treating others as sacrosanct.

    That is why she will go down as one of the poorest PMs ever.
    Do these plentiful 'other deals' available from the EU include the backstop and the non-negotiable Withdrawal Agreement? And when exactly could they have been agreed, given that the EU has stubbornly refused to negotiate the final status until after we leave?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    On topic: There was an extremely revealing post by Nick Palmer on the previous thread. In response to my comment that the mural which Corbyn seemed to like was "absolutely, obviously and unambiguously anti-semitic", Nick replied:

    Well, I'm of a similar age and background, and I've just had a look myself - like Recidivist, I can't say I saw it as you do. The most prominent things are the Illuminati symbol (which I only know from the card game about silly conspiracy theories) and the Monopoly board - the people sitting round it are presumably supposed to be old-fashioned wicked capitalists. It wouldn't occur to me that they were Jewish. I'm not denying that it's obvious to you (and apparently many others), just pointing out that different people see the same things differently.

    I don't want to lay into Nick personally on this, but you really couldn't ask for a clearer explanation of how the mindset of the hard-left segues so easily into anti-semitic populism, similar to that of Nazi Germany, or of Charles Coughlin, Henry Ford and the America First Committee of 1930s America.

    That is quite shocking. Has NPXMP seriously never seen ANY anti Semitic propaganda from the nazi era? Not any? Really? Because it is virtually identical to the Corbyn mural, right down to the gloating expressions and big noses.

    Here are a couple of cartoons from Goebbels’ Der Sturmer

    https://goo.gl/images/f9XXgX

    https://goo.gl/images/jw884b

    Here is the mural

    https://goo.gl/images/g7KCMi

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Theresa May's deal: 80%
    Ref 2 TMDeal vs Remain: 20%
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Scott_P said:
    It is unquestionably a national humiliation. We have shown ourselves to be incompetent fantasists completely incapable of understanding how the world works and our place in it. But, of course, this is only the start. I hope I am around to see the mendacious fraudsters who foisted this on us held to account for their actions.

    + 1. It is sad. We are trashing our own USP.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Hold on, that stat doesn't pass the smell test at all. 1% of UK tax revenue linked to 10% of banking assets? Are we sure it isn't 1% of banking sector tax revenue, which makes a lot more sense.
  • Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.

    It’s going to get a lot worse.

    I accepted that a while ago.

    Makes life easier.

    Console yourself with the fact of just how bad it would have been if we didn’t hold all the cards.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677


    * She hasn't joined any stupid wars that made things worse than if the British had stayed at home playing Microsoft Flight Simulator, which may sound like a low bar but neither Blair nor Cameron managed to clear it

    She's had RAF Typhoons (operating cost: 80,000 quid/hour) using Paveway IVs (acquisition cost: 70,000 quid each) to bomb Toyota Hi-Luxes in Iraq and Syria. Total bill for Op Shader so far: 1bn. Which is all fucking stupid.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    nico67 said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    May gone by the end of the week . Resigns and asks for an extension to let a new leader to take over .

    To be honest I think that would be the honourable thing to do. She has failed utterly.
    It’s probably easier for Tory MPs to support an extension under the guise that a new leader would need time to reset the negotiations . It’s likely a new PM would be a hard Brexiter which would please the ERG nutjobs . And that PM can then go chasing unicorns !
    The next PM will have to agree to Brexit Ref 2: vote harder which may well see the end of Brexit for this generation. I suspect that they will be far more focused on keeping the broken remnants of the Tory party together so that they can form a credible opposition to worry too much about unicorns. It is not just May that is going to lose her job over this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.

    It’s going to get a lot worse.

    I accepted that a while ago.

    Makes life easier.

    Console yourself with the fact of just how bad it would have been if we didn’t hold all the cards.
    From your point of view, it won't get worse, as Continuity Remain and the ERG are contriving to keep us in the EU indefinitely.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    On topic: There was an extremely revealing post by Nick Palmer on the previous thread. In response to my comment that the mural which Corbyn seemed to like was "absolutely, obviously and unambiguously anti-semitic", Nick replied:

    Well, I'm of a similar age and background, and I've just had a look myself - like Recidivist, I can't say I saw it as you do. The most prominent things are the Illuminati symbol (which I only know from the card game about silly conspiracy theories) and the Monopoly board - the people sitting round it are presumably supposed to be old-fashioned wicked capitalists. It wouldn't occur to me that they were Jewish. I'm not denying that it's obvious to you (and apparently many others), just pointing out that different people see the same things differently.

    I don't want to lay into Nick personally on this, but you really couldn't ask for a clearer explanation of how the mindset of the hard-left segues so easily into anti-semitic populism, similar to that of Nazi Germany, or of Charles Coughlin, Henry Ford and the America First Committee of 1930s America.

    Corbyn is supposed to have fought racism (in all its forms) all his life. You would have thought that in all those decades he would have become something of an expert on racism and its associated forms, memes, symbols, metaphors etc etc.

    But no.

    Apparently not.
  • Sean_F said:

    Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.

    It’s going to get a lot worse.

    I accepted that a while ago.

    Makes life easier.

    Console yourself with the fact of just how bad it would have been if we didn’t hold all the cards.
    From your point of view, it won't get worse, as Continuity Remain and the ERG are contriving to keep us in the EU indefinitely.
    I’ve spent the last few weeks reassuring my Leaver friends that we’re leaving.

    It is the law.

    PS - It doesn’t get better if we Remain, plenty of your fellow Leavers have said they’d vote for fascists to enact Brexit.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    Hold on, that stat doesn't pass the smell test at all. 1% of UK tax revenue linked to 10% of banking assets? Are we sure it isn't 1% of banking sector tax revenue, which makes a lot more sense.

    Yes, it sounds like nonsense.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    nico67 said:

    Is it possible to put on the news without having to be subjected to the odious Mark Francois spouting more crap .

    Is Mark Francois being odious and spouts crap the one thing every PBer can agree on ?
    Yes - although did I detect him not forcefully trashing the Deal As Amended on R4 on Saturday? It struck me as relatively grown-up for him.. at least leaving some wiggle-room if he had to reverse ferret to save Brexit.
    The sad thing is that being odious and crap makes him very run of the mill in this Parliament. Nothing exceptional at all.
    What's odd is that he got a degree from a good university, but appears to be as thick as pigshit.
    And Wollaston is a doctor (as if Fox, of course). Why do they all behave as ignorant morons? Is it what they think we want to hear?
    Mark Francis makes Kerry Smith sound like an intellectual.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    On topic: There was an extremely revealing post by Nick Palmer on the previous thread. In response to my comment that the mural which Corbyn seemed to like was "absolutely, obviously and unambiguously anti-semitic", Nick replied:

    Well, I'm of a similar age and background, and I've just had a look myself - like Recidivist, I can't say I saw it as you do. The most prominent things are the Illuminati symbol (which I only know from the card game about silly conspiracy theories) and the Monopoly board - the people sitting round it are presumably supposed to be old-fashioned wicked capitalists. It wouldn't occur to me that they were Jewish. I'm not denying that it's obvious to you (and apparently many others), just pointing out that different people see the same things differently.

    I don't want to lay into Nick personally on this, but you really couldn't ask for a clearer explanation of how the mindset of the hard-left segues so easily into anti-semitic populism, similar to that of Nazi Germany, or of Charles Coughlin, Henry Ford and the America First Committee of 1930s America.

    That is quite shocking. Has NPXMP seriously never seen ANY anti Semitic propaganda from the nazi era? Not any? Really? Because it is virtually identical to the Corbyn mural, right down to the gloating expressions and big noses.

    Here are a couple of cartoons from Goebbels’ Der Sturmer

    https://goo.gl/images/f9XXgX

    https://goo.gl/images/jw884b

    Here is the mural

    https://goo.gl/images/g7KCMi

    I've not looked but isn't that kind of the point? To the 99 per cent of the British public who are not familiar with Nazi-era propaganda, the mural does not look antisemitic.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549

    Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.

    The very very strange thing in all this, is that despite the clown show of a government and the dismal panto of our political theatre, Britain’s economy is doing OK, the deficit is coming down, we are not at war, our environmental record is good, crime remains relatively low (despite these horrible stabbings), our universities thrive, we have the best thriller writers, and otters now live in every county in England.

    Britain is still an enviably stable, sensible, prosperous nation - blessed with beautiful countryside and magnificent culture.

    Yes Brexit is a shower of shyte. But Britain is not Brexit.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    Someone please end this sh*t show. Anyone.

    The very very strange thing in all this, is that despite the clown show of a government and the dismal panto of our political theatre, Britain’s economy is doing OK, the deficit is coming down, we are not at war, our environmental record is good, crime remains relatively low (despite these horrible stabbings), our universities thrive, we have the best thriller writers, and otters now live in every county in England.

    Britain is still an enviably stable, sensible, prosperous nation - blessed with beautiful countryside and magnificent culture.

    Yes Brexit is a shower of shyte. But Britain is not Brexit.
    That is why I am green on our Chancellor for next PM. Of course, first there has to be a vacancy and then Hammond needs to stand.
This discussion has been closed.