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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year on since Corbyn’s anti-semitic mural row and the issue
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year on since Corbyn’s anti-semitic mural row and the issue continues to plague LAB and its leader
It was in March last year that the antisemitic row within LAB gathered media traction following the revelation of his positive response on Facebook in 2012 to what was clearly an anti-semitic mural on the wall of a building in East London. That led amongst other things to demonstrations in Parliament Square against him and the party.
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Clearly the Sunhil comes out in the middle of the night.
Can’t imagine May all willing to resign if the votes go against her. But she could make other votes, such as for delay, non binding on the government to avoid the sense of losing control?
The executive has a different role to Parliament
Would any Tory MPs actually VNOC their own PM ?
Worst case scenario this ends up on the Queens desk, God knows the poor woman doesn't need this.
What we need is an outline of what she will do when it fails (which should include resigning but probably won't given how stubborn she is).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47519929
I have to say though I think they're making the right call, whatever their reasons for it.
In phone calls with Downing Street, leading Tories in the Commons warned that the prime minister could face another three-figure defeat if she went ahead with her plan.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-vote-must-be-put-on-hold-mps-warn-theresa-may-3jkhl37gm
This is why Brexit will forever be a total omnishambles...
Michael Gove, the environment secretary, says in today’s Daily Mail that MPs should back the deal, adding: “Everyone who believes in democracy should support it.” The former foreign secretary Boris Johnson used his column in The Daily Telegraph to call for MPs to oppose the deal and “do nothing further to weaken the UK position”.
https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433
That said, it is strange and disturbing to find myself on the same side as Michael Gove.
https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/1104995834624643072?s=21
- she lost the majority or when
- she had a majority of the non-payroll Tory MPs voted against her or when
- she spent two years negotiating a deal, using her own hand-picked team, that then received the biggest cross-party raspberry in Parliamentary history.
None of which have stopped her buggering on to date. She will argue that whoever comes in to replace her will face an identical immoveable EU position. Her strategy has poisoned the well for whoever comes after.
The '22 could change the rules, if they sensed that she has lost the confidence of the party. But they won't.
The Cabinet could resign. But they are shit-scared of her successor either not being them, or else whoever does succeed May turfing them out of their ministerial role. If they had workable legs, they would already have walked.
Even if her deal as is gets through by arm-twisting or blackmailing or bribing, it kills the relationship with the DUP going forward. So the death of her deal which might briefly keep the DUP happy until they revert to their default-setting of Having a Grievance. But it likely also causes the death of her party, by failing to deliver Brexit. The best way out is a General Election, where she sells her deal directly to the voters. The TINA election. Corbyn is an anti-semite with a fantasy for an alternative. My deal works, and is there ready to sign up.
But this is not a presidential election. She needs to get MPs elected, signed up to a manifesto that will implement Brexit - ah, just like she did in 2017. Hmmmm....
Theresa May really has proved to be monumentally inept. Every outlook is bleak.
Which seems to simply kick the can down the road until the end of next year.
It is a doomed project.
Cutting cartoon (not that that's a bad thing. Indeed, many early cartoonists were into political satire).
Damned cold outside. Glad it wasn't a bit wetter, the drive was icy enough as it is.
That new PM will get the job if they threaten to walk away from her deal if the trade talks with the EU don't hit their acceptable milestones - whilst planning for WTO terms in the interim.
But at least we will have left the EU.
Edit - a little research on CNN reveals this aircraft had flown just 1400 hours.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/10/investing/boeing-737-crash/index.html
There doesn't seem to have been a problem with the weather. The pilot had 8,000 hours of flight time logged. Even allowing for Adis Ababa not being the easiest of aerodromes to fly from given its altitude, this is a very strange accident indeed. Even though I'm no expert I can see it should not have happened.
Is that correct ?
If so, the Brexit dividend is looking rather unconvincing.
Every MP needs to go at the next election. Clean slate from the ground up.
The reality is that we have a divided country and a government without a majority. The competence, or lack of it, of individual MPs is a second order problem.
Though I make an exception for the ERG.
“Everyone who believes in democracy should support it.”
And the ERG oppose it...
Now that’s a doomed project...
Quite incredible.
Like everyone in politics I like party unity, but that would just be can-kicking and putting the party before the country. We all know that there is a majority for the WA minus the backstop and we all know it's not on offer. Neutrally offering a choice of indicative votes on options that the EU might accept (Norway, hard exit, referendum, Kyle deal of WA+referendum) is more promising because (a) it may show that there is a majority for something that can be accepted and (b) if it doesn't, her deal may look more like the only available option.
"there is no version of Brexit that can make it through the commons."
I thought that some time ago, but not for the reason you think. The MPs were always against Brexit and haven't changed their minds. Yet they voted for it out of fear.
Fear of what the electorate would think if they were seen to deny them a view.
So, they're looking for both a fig-leaf and a scapegoat. Who is wrong when the MPs no longer represent the voters on a major and far-reaching issue like this?
Think about that for a moment.
She’d at least be honest and probably gain some respect.
Throw the EU under a bus is her last hope.
We get down to this Corbyn supporters suggesting he is a liar line from you a lot but it tends to involves assuming things either Corbyn or Corbyn supporters haven't actually said.
Has it ever occurred to you that the series of assumptions you seem to make off just a few words aren't the holy truth and you are actually capable of making mistakes?
For example for simple PR reasons can you understand why somebody could move the argument past whether the image was AS or not regardless of their thoughts on the matter?
Now I don't know for sure this happened, but neither do you.
This whole Corbyn supporters are calling him a liar meme is a bit boring because Corbyn supporters don't make the series of assumptions you do. People who think exactly like you probably are calling Corbyn a liar, but those people probably aren't Corbyn supporters.
I'm sorry if you find it boring Jezziah, but it is true, when people are furiously defending Corbyn and saying he has done no wrong or that things in labour are just fine and it is all just attacks on Corbyn, I think it reasonable to conclude they are Corbyn supporters, especially when they have JC for PM and other such things in their Twitter handles.
I'm sorry, but you just confuse me. It is possible to think the attacks on labour and Corbyn are overblown, out of proportion. But some people say it is all a smear. Corbyn says it is not just a smear. If that's not calling him a liar what is? Some claim the mural was not anti semitic or not obviously so. Corbyn had to say he didn't look at it properly so even if you or they dont think that, he clearly does.
Its all very well people defending themselves with certain lines. But Corbyn cannot be defended with lines if he has contradicted those lines.
Thst doesn't make every attack people make on him true. But it does make supporters of his, and they are supporters of his, who defend him for reasons that do not follow his words, calling him a liar. You don't like that, fine.
It's the Brown/Duffy incident. Many people insist what she said was bigoted. Let's say that is correct. But Brown himself said it wasn't and he was sorry. So anyone decending him for speaking truth is calling him a liar.
Should I believe Corbyn that he did not look at the moral properly? Or call him a liar, a liar who is pretending not to have looked at it, is lying about his regret, because what? He have in to the press?
Corbyn might not be as bad as many think. He has the backing of millions. But to suggest people defending him are not supporters of his? Youe lost it.
Dont want people who back him but contradict him.called out? Tell them to stop calling him a liar. I apparently have more respect for his honesty than you do.
She’ll resign and ask for an extension to allow a new leader time to reset the negotiations.
1. May's deal - crap as it is - delivers Brexit as stipulated by the question on the ballot paper. That millions of people believe leaving the EU means not leaving the EU is a problem for keeping the political system functional even if MPs back her deal. Which they won't
2. May could have taken her deal to the country. A snap general election where voting Conservative is voting to enact her deal. Perhaps she chose not to do so because of point 1 - either way its now too late for that option
3. "Common Market 2.0" - the rebranded Norway+ - is still talked about, but as has been widely pointed out leaves us in a worse position than now and is only something you'd do to keep the people happy. See point 1
4. We could rescind Article 50, but we know from Jo Cox how that will turn out
5. We could leave with No Deal. The people in point 1 will be angry anyway when it turns out "living with the Blitz spirit" means them suffering and not the Other People they had in mind
6. A confirmatory referendum on May's Deal/Norway+ isn't something I would be campaigning on. See point 4
So here we are. It almost doesn't matter what the MPs do this week or what the EU27 do next week. Brexit has already happened. The societal schism is already here. The massive economic hit from business doing the least amount possible for fear of betting the wrong way is here. And afterwards?
Up and down this country, in every Wetherspoon pub in every town, they will be holding meetings explaining to the Angry and the Dispossessed and the Stupid and the Racist how the politicians have failed them. How the global elite have stolen their future. How the foreigner is laughing at them IN THEIR OWN COUNTRY. And the increasingly rapid switch into radical solutions - on both the left and right - will gather pace. And the "mainstream" parties will argue amongst themselves about whose fault this is and argue about solutions, all in a culture where no party wants to work with another party despite none of them having a clue what to do. And all the while, that Twat Corbyn remains at the head of my party insisting that True Socialism will be here tomorrow if only we remove the True Enemy of the Labour Party - the Party itself.
I'm not saying May should not be ditched, I just dont think it changes fundamental problems.
I still think Corbyn might as well be given a chance to negotiate with the EU. Sure I doubt hed get anything either but might as well try and he cannot do worse.
As a theory that's not credible.
Because however much the jezziah likes to play the victim and I dont like Corbyn, I can give him a little credit where it is due.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
On current form - and we're still nearly a year till the primaries - it's clearly Biden vs Sanders if Biden runs, with Warren and Harris still hanging in there in case they both implode. Everyone else is already looking like no-hopers. What isn't clear is what happens if Biden doesn't run.
It's all just so futile. We all know the MV2 will be lost, and yet loads more time will be spent arguing this or thst option, no doubt an extension to ease the path to remain. It's such a waste of time.
Brexit is bad enough, but to compound it by putting Mr Thicky in charge would be enough to consign our great nation to a basket case of 1970s proportions for generations to come. So no, however attractive Labour's EU policy is, it is not enough to persuade us to put the anti-Semite in Chief into No 10. Someone more moderate would be a completely different scenario .
Don't think I have ever written a statement with so many references to 'not' and 'no'.
All bonkers.
That is why she will go down as one of the poorest PMs ever.
"I think he'd get a customs union plus regulatory alignment without much trouble,"
I'm sure he could, as part of Remaining. Of course, the EU would let us stay, somebody needs to fill the budget gap. Next door's cat could get that.
So in that respect, you could say that the EU might be well on the way to making good the deficit to the their budget which would result from our leaving.
But I can understand why millions of voters will vote Blue to stop the Reds, or Red to stop the Blues.
What a mess.
O'Rourke also has yet to declare, and although I remain sceptical about his chances, it's entirely possible that his candidacy could take off. And the present Biden/Sanders lead is far from reliable at this stage.
Until the campaign hots up, it's impossible to know whether that polling lead is largely as a result of name recognition, or representative of committed voters.