3-1? You must be joking right. We need 115 MPs who voted against last time to switch. Do we have any names? I think there may be a few on the Labour side. I can see Snell, Mann, Flint, Nandy and Laura Smith switching. There's 5. Can anyone supply the other 110?
I'd be more interested in the chances of the deal losing by over 100 votes again. People are too entrenched, and I can't see the DUP evangelising for the deal, which is what would be needed to get it over the line.
What I am worried about is MPs getting to the extension vote, and it still not passing due to a three way split between no extension, short extension and long extension. So if parliament votes against the Deal, then against No Deal, then against an extension, what the heck happens next?
Which is why there is no chance of the DUP/ERG voting in favour on the 12th. Because we still crash out on 29th. They MAY give in and vote in favour IF an extension is voted for. Which is the sequence of events I fear TM is hoping for. To bring the MV back a third time with an actual course of action as an alternative. It is a reckless, reckless gamble of an almost unforgivable magnitude.
The extension to Art 50 is now almost certain to happen, the ERG will them be forced to either accept May's Deal or face the risk of BINO or EUref2 and no Brexit at all given May has cleverly ensured Parliament will also formally vote down No Deal too
I'm only more privileged that 61% of others, which sounds implausibly low.
Is dealing with Vanilla a privilege these days?
I’m apparently more privileged than 76% of others, only being a committed atheist softens my score against a complete rinse. Is it really true that devout Christianity is an avenue to privilege? In my line of work religiousity is probably seen as a disadvantage, if anything.
The government's No Deal impact report is most unimpressive. There's really not much to it. Frankly I could have written that with just a few hours' internet searching to fill in some of the figures.
It reads like the executive summary of a far longer and more comprehensive document. For all our sakes, I hope it is.
FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.
1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary 2. Spain has been a Euro loser
If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.
I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.
I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,
Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.
I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.
The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.
Italian workers aren't going to volunteer to be paid in Nova Lira instead of Euros.
There was probably a brief moment when some of the TIG wondered whether they had done the right thing when Jezza started talking about a 2nd vote.
They can relax. Turns out that was all crap and many members of the party have spent the day ramming up the anti-jew, pro-hozbollah stuff and tweeting about coups in venezuela (presumably run by the Rothschilds etc etc).
It is a point though that the focus of the TIG on Brexit has quite significantly narrowed their potential appeal to disillusioned working class Leave voters who are crying out for some alternative other than full on Corbynism with all its extremist baggage. With the benefit of hindsight, that narrow focus looks to me like a mistake.
Tom Harris has quite a good take on it here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/21/independent-group-will-doomed-without-vision-life-brexit/ "But it would be a pity to ignore the largely working class communities who, when they were offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to kick the establishment elite (as they saw it), took it. Surely they are as entitled to a non-extreme political alternative as anyone else? If TIG doesn’t want to be seen as part of the political establishment, it should start acting like it’s not - starting with their vision for life after the EU, and after we have taken back control of our own immigration policy. Demanding ‘business as usual’ is not going to cut it for any mould-breaking party."
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
Bloody aphobes.
And what about those who speak English as their fifth language? (I teach one girl who speaks Persian, Farsi. Arabic and French as her first languages - and her English is still nearly as good as mine!)
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
They seem to spend their entire time assiduously searching for something EU-related which they can moan about. A curious hobby, but it takes all sorts, I suppose.
FPT the study of the impact of the Euro on individual countries. IMO, it suggests that GDP per head would be about 11% higher in Italy, and 6% higher in France, had they remained outside the Euro.
1. Greece has been a Euro benificiary 2. Spain has been a Euro loser
If you look at employment compared to 1/1/99, Spain now has 40% more people employed than then, while Greece has something like 10% less.
I would argue that Spain's economy has probably grown quicker than it would have done out of the Euro, but only because it had incredibly painful reform forced on them. And that Greece has performed markedly worse, because it allowed completely unsustainable debts to be run up.
I think I'd agree, although I think they're also spot on about Italy,
Italy's GDP has grown at 0.5% p.a., since 1999, which has just about kept pace with population growth.
I agree with their Italian analysis too. Italy should never have joined the Euro, and then should have left in 2010/11.
The problem they have is that every day they stay, makes getting out more painful.
Italian workers aren't going to volunteer to be paid in Nova Lira instead of Euros.
I don't think that its workers that are the problem. I think it's retirees and savers.
Workers' pay can rise with inflation. Money in bank accounts, or paid out of underfunded pension pots cannot.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
Keith Williams, independent chair of the first ‘root and branch’ Rail Review to be supported by government, will today (26 February 2019) announce that the rail franchising system cannot continue in the way it is now.
In the George Bradshaw Address, Keith Williams is expected to say:
I have heard a great deal about the franchising model….driving growth in passengers and benefits to services. But with this growth the needs of passengers have changed whilst many of the basic elements of our rail system have not kept pace.
Put bluntly, franchising cannot continue the way it is today. It is no longer delivering clear benefits for either taxpayers and farepayers.
I believe that for the railway to be successful it needs to put passengers at its heart.
We need to recognise that there is unlikely to be a ‘one size fits all’ solution which will work for every part of the country and all types of passenger.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.
Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
Ask Jeremy Corbyn. He's forgotten all the things he said about Chavez, Hezbollah, Hamas, Russia, Iran, the Jews, the manifestos he stood for election on, Blair, Iraq...
Having thought about how today's events affect the probabilities of various outcomes, such as leaving on time with a deal, leaving without a deal, or extending A50 for a referendum, I am now prepared to share my considered conclusion with you all: I haven't the faintest idea.
This is a board of intelligent and well informed folk across the political spectrum often with niche insights. I think it fair to say that nobody is sure what happens next or what the outcome will be.
4 weeks to go and we are all in the fog. I am not convinced that either MPs or Civil Service are any better informed.
Yes, I agree with you Foxy, and Richard.
It reminds me in some respects of the way WW1 started. Few intended it, and even fewer foresaw the consequences. It happened in large part because events had a certain logic of their own which became unstoppable.
One French official remarked recently that his country was preparing for a No Deal Brexit, even though no Government wanted it, because as he put it 'Leave happened by accident, and there's no reason why No Deal cannot happen by accident too.'
It was said with some sadness, Could happen though.
Keith Williams, independent chair of the first ‘root and branch’ Rail Review to be supported by government, will today (26 February 2019) announce that the rail franchising system cannot continue in the way it is now.
In the George Bradshaw Address, Keith Williams is expected to say:
I have heard a great deal about the franchising model….driving growth in passengers and benefits to services. But with this growth the needs of passengers have changed whilst many of the basic elements of our rail system have not kept pace.
Put bluntly, franchising cannot continue the way it is today. It is no longer delivering clear benefits for either taxpayers and farepayers.
I believe that for the railway to be successful it needs to put passengers at its heart.
We need to recognise that there is unlikely to be a ‘one size fits all’ solution which will work for every part of the country and all types of passenger.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.
Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
If you are talking about London Underground it is also running a £1 billion deficit.
It is all well and good Labour saying that Williamson can't invite Jackie Walker because she is under 'investigation' because of her anti-semitism.
But where is the acknowledgement that Corbyn shouldn't have invited all the terrorist supporters that he has hosted in Westminster??
In fairness Neil Kinnock said it high, loud and repeatedly at the time.
Yes - but the Labour Party of today (which is nothing like the one Kinnock fought to create) is utterly silent on Corbyn's association with people who wish harm on this country.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
I’m willing to admit I had never heard of intersectionality until I did that quiz.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
Bloody aphobes.
And what about those who speak English as their fifth language? (I teach one girl who speaks Persian, Farsi. Arabic and French as her first languages - and her English is still nearly as good as mine!)
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
I’m willing to admit I had never heard of intersectionality until I did that quiz.
It's just another word for how many "historically disadvantaged groups" you belong to.
Personally? I don’t think there’s any deal that would pass the current Commons. The ERG want to vote it down and will rationalise a reason to do so.
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
I’m willing to admit I had never heard of intersectionality until I did that quiz.
It's just another word for how many "historically disadvantaged groups" you belong to.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
And renationalisation can mean many things: and since Labour are refusing to say exactly what their proposed organisational structure will be (afaiaa), and given their arguments about the split nature of the network, it seems a top-down large organisation is something they favour. BR in everything but name.
Your comment also ignores the biggest problems with the network are being caused by the nationalised Network Rail, the DfT (i.e. government) and the unions. Those are the things that most need fixing.
As I've said before, concessions should strongly be looked into: they're already used in some places. But screeching renationalisation won't help anyone when it's the part that is nationalised that's causing most pain.
Who is Leave Means Leave's De Valera to May or Gove's Collins?
I don't care who de Valera, it's Cosgrave we need right now.
Of course the Dail did ultimately approve the Anglo Irish Treaty 64 to 57 votes, Cosgrave held things together for a decade until De Valera took over
'Held things together'?!!
In 1918-22 the following new countries were created or recreated in Europe:
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Finland (sort of) Czechoslovakia Austria Hungary Yugoslavia Ireland Turkey Moldova Ukraine Georgia
And of all of those countries only Finland (which had technically come into existence earlier) and Ireland remained independent and democratic states from that day to this.
Now given the pretty unpropitious circumstances in which he came to power - in the middle of a civil war, with a divided government, two more high profile subordinates, his predecessor shot and his most effective political figure commanding the other side - I think it is fair to say that was some achievement on Cosgrave's part.
Edit - heck, even if I add in all the other European states I can only add Sweden, Switzerland and us to the list of continuous democracies. And that would be not far from true by 1932 when he left office.
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
They seem to spend their entire time assiduously searching for something EU-related which they can moan about. A curious hobby, but it takes all sorts, I suppose.
What would they do to give their lives meaning after we left?
Personally? I don’t think there’s any deal that would pass the current Commons. The ERG want to vote it down and will rationalise a reason to do so.
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
Personally? I don’t think there’s any deal that would pass the current Commons. The ERG want to vote it down and will rationalise a reason to do so.
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
Keith Williams, independent chair of the first ‘root and branch’ Rail Review to be supported by government, will today (26 February 2019) announce that the rail franchising system cannot continue in the way it is now.
In the George Bradshaw Address, Keith Williams is expected to say:
I have heard a great deal about the franchising model….driving growth in passengers and benefits to services. But with this growth the needs of passengers have changed whilst many of the basic elements of our rail system have not kept pace.
Put bluntly, franchising cannot continue the way it is today. It is no longer delivering clear benefits for either taxpayers and farepayers.
I believe that for the railway to be successful it needs to put passengers at its heart.
We need to recognise that there is unlikely to be a ‘one size fits all’ solution which will work for every part of the country and all types of passenger.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.
Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
If you are talking about London Underground it is also running a £1 billion deficit.
Indeed I am, but the railway as a whole runs at what is effectively a massive loss, admittedly bailed out by taxpayers, which makes a mockery of the idea they are private businesses.
I should add that I don’t think the railway can or should run at a profit. It’s a cost of running an economy in a civilised country.
Regardless of the efforts of May and Corbyn, we are not (yet?) a banana republic, ergo our railway cannot be allowed to fail.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
Bloody aphobes.
And what about those who speak English as their fifth language? (I teach one girl who speaks Persian, Farsi. Arabic and French as her first languages - and her English is still nearly as good as mine!)
Persian is Farsi .
What language do they speak in Afghanistan then? It is that one. Do I mean Pashtun instead of Persian?
Oof. 230 is a very big number. I doubt May will get the change to the WA that parliament asked for. In that circumstance, it seems almost impossible for her to get the WA passed.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
And renationalisation can mean many things: and since Labour are refusing to say exactly what their proposed organisational structure will be (afaiaa), and given their arguments about the split nature of the network, it seems a top-down large organisation is something they favour. BR in everything but name.
Your comment also ignores the biggest problems with the network are being caused by the nationalised Network Rail, the DfT (i.e. government) and the unions. Those are the things that most need fixing.
As I've said before, concessions should strongly be looked into: they're already used in some places. But screeching renationalisation won't help anyone when it's the part that is nationalised that's causing most pain.
Well, erm, cough, okay some people are. But internet rule 17 or whatever it is called surely applies here. You can probably find a group that wants to unify Shetland with Norway if you google enough.
I’ll reply to the rest of your post when I emerge from my nationalised rail journey very shortly. I’ll tell you how it went!
Keith Williams, independent chair of the first ‘root and branch’ Rail Review to be supported by government, will today (26 February 2019) announce that the rail franchising system cannot continue in the way it is now.
In the George Bradshaw Address, Keith Williams is expected to say:
I have heard a great deal about the franchising model….driving growth in passengers and benefits to services. But with this growth the needs of passengers have changed whilst many of the basic elements of our rail system have not kept pace.
Put bluntly, franchising cannot continue the way it is today. It is no longer delivering clear benefits for either taxpayers and farepayers.
I believe that for the railway to be successful it needs to put passengers at its heart.
We need to recognise that there is unlikely to be a ‘one size fits all’ solution which will work for every part of the country and all types of passenger.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.
Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
If you are talking about London Underground it is also running a £1 billion deficit.
Indeed I am, but the railway as a whole runs at what is effectively a massive loss, admittedly bailed out by taxpayers, which makes a mockery of the idea they are private businesses.
I should add that I don’t think the railway can or should run at a profit. It’s a cost of running an economy in a civilised country.
Regardless of the efforts of May and Corbyn, we are not (yet?) a banana republic, ergo our railway cannot be allowed to fail.
The private businesses are those running the services not the services themselves. Whether or not it is more efficient for the tax payer to get private companies to bid against each other to run those services is the question.
Personally? I don’t think there’s any deal that would pass the current Commons. The ERG want to vote it down and will rationalise a reason to do so.
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
Bloody aphobes.
And what about those who speak English as their fifth language? (I teach one girl who speaks Persian, Farsi. Arabic and French as her first languages - and her English is still nearly as good as mine!)
Persian is Farsi .
What language do they speak in Afghanistan then? It is that one. Do I mean Pashtun instead of Persian?
(That may be my deafness causing confusion.)
Dari is Afghan Persian. Think Switzerdeutsch. Mutually intelligible.. Pashtun is a completely different language of Afghanistan.
Personally? I don’t think there’s any deal that would pass the current Commons. The ERG want to vote it down and will rationalise a reason to do so.
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
I’m fairly confident this will happen.
At least they're not hypocrites then.
Staying is better than this deal. It didn't have to be that way which is why most Leaver backers who were in the Cabinet have resigned and why she's lost 2 Brexit Secretaries.
This deal doesn't deserve to be passed and it shouldn't be a surprise when people have acted consistently since before the deal was signed.
Signing a deal that was known to be hated in Parliament before it was signed was madness.
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
I’m willing to admit I had never heard of intersectionality until I did that quiz.
How have you managed to be on the internet and to have avoided talk of intersectionality?
The whole thing is an American leftist academic creation to reinforce people's feelings of victimhood. It takes zero account of the individual and just labels people, It is so unhelpful in tackling real inequality.
I’m a sceptic on this. The DUP will never back this deal or anything close to it. There must be 30 ERGites who will take the same line, as a minimum. Then there are the Tory Remainer opponents of the deal.
I’m a sceptic on this. The DUP will never back this deal or anything close to it. There must be 30 ERGites who will take the same line, as a minimum. Then there are the Tory Remainer opponents of the deal.
It looks sunk to me.
Agreed. Even if ERG back it, that is insufficient.
The only way to salvage a deal is for the EU to concede on the backstop. And the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal.
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
Because we'll still be members so entitled to vote in them. The quote says if Article 50 is extended.
If we're still members on election day (or at least first day of the new Parliament) we should get a vote. Can't just pretend we're not members anymore even though we are.
Watching Channel 4 News reporting that there is a warning that business is not prepared for no deal Brexit. Great. As a senior manager in an SME manufacturer and exporter please tell me what the fuck they expect our business to do when we have no idea which way they are likely to go in the remaining few weeks.
We've prepped a Brexit risk plan and various contingencies. We are meeting several times a week to review. But we don't have the cash or the space to implement all the contingencies, nor is it clear which contingencies would best serve us, nor do our various suppliers or prospective alternative suppliers know which options are best for them.
If we are going to delay, they need to delay. Now.
I’m a sceptic on this. The DUP will never back this deal or anything close to it. There must be 30 ERGites who will take the same line, as a minimum. Then there are the Tory Remainer opponents of the deal.
It looks sunk to me.
Agreed. Even if ERG back it, that is insufficient.
The only way to salvage a deal is for the EU to concede on the backstop. And the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal.
This deal is your best chance of Brexit. Once it goes, Parliament will take over.
Thanks for posting that. It'll be interesting to see where he goes with it: from that snippet, it doesn't sound like he thinks a return to BR is the solution. If so, I am not surprised.
Although I do have concerns this review will go the same way as the other reviews we've had over the years, e.g. Hansford.
Nobody on Earth is suggesting a return to BR, it’s the straw man debating tool of primary school standard. Nobody can answer the question: What is franchising for? There are better models out there. And the most popular rail network in the UK is nationalised.
If you are talking about London Underground it is also running a £1 billion deficit.
Indeed I am, but the railway as a whole runs at what is effectively a massive loss, admittedly bailed out by taxpayers, which makes a mockery of the idea they are private businesses.
I should add that I don’t think the railway can or should run at a profit. It’s a cost of running an economy in a civilised country.
Regardless of the efforts of May and Corbyn, we are not (yet?) a banana republic, ergo our railway cannot be allowed to fail.
Thing is, the London and it's commuter belt rail services (underground and overground) really should be one of the profitable bits of the network. Running half a dozen short trains a day over a 100 miles of particularly expensive infrastructure (e.g. the Cambrian Coast Line) is always going to need a huge amount of subsidy, but a network like London's where you can essentially run most of your track at full capacity with trains loaded to full capacity (and where there is no real viable alternative way to travel for many users) should be something approaching to a licence to print money.
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
Because we'll still be members so entitled to vote in them. The quote says if Article 50 is extended.
If we're still members on election day (or at least first day of the new Parliament) we should get a vote. Can't just pretend we're not members anymore even though we are.
That is right as far as it goes but what is in it for Leave Mean's Leave? What if it turns into a proxy second referendum?
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
Watching Channel 4 News reporting that there is a warning that business is not prepared for no deal Brexit. Great. As a senior manager in an SME manufacturer and exporter please tell me what the fuck they expect our business to do when we have no idea which way they are likely to go in the remaining few weeks.
We've prepped a Brexit risk plan and various contingencies. We are meeting several times a week to review. But we don't have the cash or the space to implement all the contingencies, nor is it clear which contingencies would best serve us, nor do our various suppliers or prospective alternative suppliers know which options are best for them.
If we are going to delay, they need to delay. Now.
You do not count. They are not listening to you. As long as the polls remain solid they will ignore everything you say. Assume that they will fuck up and plan for that. Because fuck up is all they do.
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
Because we'll still be members so entitled to vote in them. The quote says if Article 50 is extended.
If we're still members on election day (or at least first day of the new Parliament) we should get a vote. Can't just pretend we're not members anymore even though we are.
That is right as far as it goes but what is in it for Leave Mean's Leave? What if it turns into a proxy second referendum?
Suspect that's excactly what's in it for LML - they'd want to use it as an anti-Remain protest vote. And it's a ploy I could see working - there is little doubt that the people who feel most strongly about Europe are the arch-Leavers.
I can't see the UK having another vote in EU elections unless and until a 2nd Ref has voted Remain though.
@TheScreamingEagles so you know how I said Corbyn backing a second referendum would give the JK rowling types enough to work with to head off IndyRef2 even happening?
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
You gotta admire Lilico. The only man innocent enough to use the phrase "Queen kneel and kiss Juncker's ring" without recognising the double entendre...
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
Yeah, like I said yesterday it was never a credible bluff. Now we have shoved in all our chips and are sitting on a pair of dueces...
Only gay/straight? And Chriistian/Muslim or Jewish? #buddhistbisexualerasure
It just shows up intersectionality for the nonsense it is. It is nothing more than a political agenda - no basis in science, reality or anything else credible.
I’m willing to admit I had never heard of intersectionality until I did that quiz.
How have you managed to be on the internet and to have avoided talk of intersectionality?
The whole thing is an American leftist academic creation to reinforce people's feelings of victimhood. It takes zero account of the individual and just labels people, It is so unhelpful in tackling real inequality.
I don’t spend that much time on ‘the internet’. PB and the BBC Sport pages cover 90% of my usage!
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
Yeah, like I said yesterday it was never a credible bluff. Now we have shoved in all our chips and are sitting on a pair of dueces...
No, we think we are sitting on a pair of dueces, they know that we think we are sitting on a pair of dueces, but they also know that they are in fact a pair of aces and have been hoping all along that we don't wake up to the fact.
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
I agree with you. But unfortunately that doesn't mean "threaten Leave with No Deal" will work either.
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
Yeah, like I said yesterday it was never a credible bluff. Now we have shoved in all our chips and are sitting on a pair of dueces...
No, we think we are sitting on a pair of dueces, they know that we think we are sitting on a pair of dueces, but they also know that they are in fact a pair of aces and have been hoping all along that we don't wake up to the fact.
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
I didn't say threaten to leave ... I said be prepared to leave ... Do you understand the difference?
Does it run to full capacity? It does during rush hour, sure. But for large parts of the day it runs a quarter (or less?) full. As I say, it’s a cost of running an economy. You need that regular service even though many trains are undertrading.
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
They will certainly not give us what we want when they take the view that the PM, her lead negotiator, most of her Cabinet, the majority of her MPs and the vast majority of all MPs have absolutely no intention of letting the UK leave under WTO terms and would rather the UK stay in the EU under those or indeed any circumstances.
I agree with you. But unfortunately that doesn't mean "threaten Leave with No Deal" will work either.
No it won't. Hence why I didnt use the word threaten that you're putting into quotation marks.
... the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal...
Seriously? You still believe that? This has been going on for years. Cameron's Bloomberg speech was six years ago. For years we've been banging on that if we threaten to Leave, or threaten to Leave with No Deal, they will give us what we want. It hasn't worked once.
I didn't say threaten to leave ... I said be prepared to leave ... Do you understand the difference?
Possibly a distinction without a difference. But taking it at face value for the moment, are you telling me we are sufficiently prepared to leave with No Deal? Because I'm not sure that's true.
I have just been told that the largest school in Cannock will not be offering A-levels in maths or ICT next year as they are so bloody hard to get a decent grade in nobody is choosing them. (No, not my school.)
This is madness. And it will not end well. Indeed, it has already ended rather badly.
Comments
#buddhistbisexualerasure
I’ll admit to now being completely baffled. Are these no marks campaigning to make sure the European elections ARE held? Why??
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1100459016814321665
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1100460129449844737
Tom Harris has quite a good take on it here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/21/independent-group-will-doomed-without-vision-life-brexit/
"But it would be a pity to ignore the largely working class communities who, when they were offered a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to kick the establishment elite (as they saw it), took it. Surely they are as entitled to a non-extreme political alternative as anyone else? If TIG doesn’t want to be seen as part of the political establishment, it should start acting like it’s not - starting with their vision for life after the EU, and after we have taken back control of our own immigration policy. Demanding ‘business as usual’ is not going to cut it for any mould-breaking party."
And what about those who speak English as their fifth language? (I teach one girl who speaks Persian, Farsi. Arabic and French as her first languages - and her English is still nearly as good as mine!)
Workers' pay can rise with inflation. Money in bank accounts, or paid out of underfunded pension pots cannot.
https://twitter.com/WestminsterWAG/status/1100440045020999680
It reminds me in some respects of the way WW1 started. Few intended it, and even fewer foresaw the consequences. It happened in large part because events had a certain logic of their own which became unstoppable.
One French official remarked recently that his country was preparing for a No Deal Brexit, even though no Government wanted it, because as he put it 'Leave happened by accident, and there's no reason why No Deal cannot happen by accident too.'
It was said with some sadness, Could happen though.
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1100422169589370880
But where is the acknowledgement that Corbyn shouldn't have invited all the terrorist supporters that he has hosted in Westminster??
Jacob Rees-Mogg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kc0FwoIsDMI
Well, there was a sink on his father's estate. Somewhere.
(I hope you will excuse me for that little dig at the child of privilege. My background was boringly normal in a two-bed semi.)
Then, the tectonic plates will move further and we’ll end up staying. They’ll be happy because they blame someone else, say staying was better than “that deal” anyway and keep whinging about the EU.
I’m fairly confident this will happen.
One.
Atheists.
I didn’t realise we were oppressed, but do now!
Maybe @Richard_Tyndall - a fellow science devotee - can share?
And renationalisation can mean many things: and since Labour are refusing to say exactly what their proposed organisational structure will be (afaiaa), and given their arguments about the split nature of the network, it seems a top-down large organisation is something they favour. BR in everything but name.
Your comment also ignores the biggest problems with the network are being caused by the nationalised Network Rail, the DfT (i.e. government) and the unions. Those are the things that most need fixing.
As I've said before, concessions should strongly be looked into: they're already used in some places. But screeching renationalisation won't help anyone when it's the part that is nationalised that's causing most pain.
In 1918-22 the following new countries were created or recreated in Europe:
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Finland (sort of)
Czechoslovakia
Austria
Hungary
Yugoslavia
Ireland
Turkey
Moldova
Ukraine
Georgia
And of all of those countries only Finland (which had technically come into existence earlier) and Ireland remained independent and democratic states from that day to this.
Now given the pretty unpropitious circumstances in which he came to power - in the middle of a civil war, with a divided government, two more high profile subordinates, his predecessor shot and his most effective political figure commanding the other side - I think it is fair to say that was some achievement on Cosgrave's part.
Edit - heck, even if I add in all the other European states I can only add Sweden, Switzerland and us to the list of continuous democracies. And that would be not far from true by 1932 when he left office.
Brexiteers like us are too few and far between.
I should add that I don’t think the railway can or should run at a profit. It’s a cost of running an economy in a civilised country.
Regardless of the efforts of May and Corbyn, we are not (yet?) a banana republic, ergo our railway cannot be allowed to fail.
(That may be my deafness causing confusion.)
QTWTAIN.
Interesting read.
"The Millennial burden of perfectionism
Millennials are haunted by the idea of being proved inconsistent
Freya Sanders"
https://unherd.com/2019/02/the-millennial-burden-of-perfectionism/
I’ll reply to the rest of your post when I emerge from my nationalised rail journey very shortly. I’ll tell you how it went!
https://twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1100079086192480256?s=21
Pashtun is a completely different language of Afghanistan.
Staying is better than this deal. It didn't have to be that way which is why most Leaver backers who were in the Cabinet have resigned and why she's lost 2 Brexit Secretaries.
This deal doesn't deserve to be passed and it shouldn't be a surprise when people have acted consistently since before the deal was signed.
Signing a deal that was known to be hated in Parliament before it was signed was madness.
The whole thing is an American leftist academic creation to reinforce people's feelings of victimhood. It takes zero account of the individual and just labels people, It is so unhelpful in tackling real inequality.
https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1100473788133769224
https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1100473578074636289
https://twitter.com/wizbates/status/1100471552678735873
It looks sunk to me.
The only way to salvage a deal is for the EU to concede on the backstop.
And the only way to get the EU to concede on the backstop is to be prepared to go to No Deal.
If we're still members on election day (or at least first day of the new Parliament) we should get a vote. Can't just pretend we're not members anymore even though we are.
We've prepped a Brexit risk plan and various contingencies. We are meeting several times a week to review. But we don't have the cash or the space to implement all the contingencies, nor is it clear which contingencies would best serve us, nor do our various suppliers or prospective alternative suppliers know which options are best for them.
If we are going to delay, they need to delay. Now.
71% for me.
Surely private education should be on the scoresheet?
They are not listening to you.
As long as the polls remain solid they will ignore everything you say.
Assume that they will fuck up and plan for that.
Because fuck up is all they do.
I can't see the UK having another vote in EU elections unless and until a 2nd Ref has voted Remain though.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1100468439607635968?s=21
Scratch that. Leonard is a buffoon.
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/1100424322173292544?s=19
Does it run to full capacity? It does during rush hour, sure. But for large parts of the day it runs a quarter (or less?) full. As I say, it’s a cost of running an economy. You need that regular service even though many trains are undertrading.
This is madness. And it will not end well. Indeed, it has already ended rather badly.