Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
* If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
Of course, it's actually a good thing. Its the underlying problem that's the bad thing. Labour people choose to overlook that the problem was there before. Indeed the rise of food banks began under New Labour.
I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
Perhaps mine . I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
Green Book is lovely, but perhaps a bit slight for an Oscar. Not very much happens, except that the protagonists learn to like each other. You leave the movie feeling happier about the world and enhanced as an individual, and that's great. But it's hard to imagine it being watched in 10 years' time.
There is a slight remaining queasiness about watching "civil rights as entertainment". Although not as much as the Doctor Who episode, where it is down to a white timelord from Sheffield to save the Rosa Parkes civil rights protest from failing.... "Well done, Whitey, we couldn't have done it without you...."
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
Germany There are over 900 food banks in Germany, up from just 1 in 1993.[94] In 2014, 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
I didn't realise that. Thanks. At first sight I would assume that's due to refugees, but that's an assumption so may or may not be correct. Have you, Mr W, got a reference for that quote?
I'll have to ask my friend who does occasional shifts at a food bank what her experience is, in an area with, so far as I can see few refugees. And my Samaritan granddaughter.
Does anyone here have relevant experience, personal or associate.
I am no fan of Corbyn but perhaps he understands that the majority of British people voted leave in 2016 and actually believes in carrying out the democratic decision taken. Parties who want to lead the country can’t just listen to their own tribe they are seeking to govern the nation even those who dont agree with them
Until last Monday Leftish Southern Remain supporters were probably safe Labour votes, while Leave supporters could be pulled over to the Tories or whatever Brexit party appears that isn't toxic to northern tribal voters.
TIG may have changed things but until things are formalised you can see why a Brexit supporting leader may continue to ignore the other side of the argument.
I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
Perhaps mine . I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
Green Book is lovely, but perhaps a bit slight for an Oscar. Not very much happens, except that the protagonists learn to like each other. You leave the movie feeling happier about the world and enhanced as an individual, and that's great. But it's hard to imagine it being watched in 10 years' time.
It is set in 1962 so it is not "of the moment" so to speak so it might wear well. Not much happens in Roma either, though the photography is really exceptional. I'm not sure how to watch the ceremony tonight.
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
The reason why many on the centre-left opposed Corbyn from the get-go was that he had stood in solidarity with anti-Semites and all anti-Western regimes and causes, however murderous, for decades. You can argue about economic policy, but ultimately some things are just beyond the pale. His past is what has always made him unfit to lead.
As for the Tories, their UKIPification is a surprise. I always thought they were pragmatic and certainly pro-business. It turns out they’re largely hard right English nationalists at grassroots level and as intolerant of dissent as their Labour contemporaries.
...Tories: direct consequence of the decline in membership?
"Until last Monday there were nine political parties represented in the Commons, of which eight were in favour of remaining within the EU. Oh, and a sole independent — she was for remain as well. But then, last week, a political tornado blew apart this unrepresentative consensus, with the formation of an exciting new outfit, the Independent Group. So now we have a House of Commons where, in effect, 10 parties are represented, nine of them in favour of remain."
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
Chuka Umunna on Sky News this morning suggests he will stand again in Streatham which had the highest Remain vote in the country in 2016, though mixed support for him in a Sky News Voxpop
If he is going to stand in Streatham I'd have thought his best tactic would be to go for a by election prior to Brexit and make Europe the issue.
He has the seat until the next general election so I highly doubt he will risk it in a by election, winning an ultra Remain seat on a Brexit by election sends little message anyway, however if he stands again at that general election he has made clear it will be in Streatham
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.
The problem is that some demographics and groups are wildly over-represented in Parliament. You can surely see how dangerous that is.
Lawyers, for example, are vastly over-represented. Computer programmers vastly under-represented -- now many MPs could write even a small python program?
Luciana Berger representing Liverpool Wavertress --- you're having a larf:
"Asked by the local newspaper to answer four questions on her adopted city, Ms Berger stumbled, admitting she had never heard of the legendary Liverpool football manager Bill Shankly, nor did she know who sang "Ferry Across the Mersey" (Gerry & the Pacemakers), The actor and Liverpool celebrity Ricky Tomlinson threatened to stand against her after it emerged that during the candidate selection she had stayed at the house of the outgoing Blairite incumbent MP, Jane Kennedy." (The Independent 23 April 2010).
And we haven't even mentioned her personalised number plate yet.
Can you have too many lawyers in a law making body? Possibly. Whether Luciana Berger represents the good burghers of Liverpool Wavertree is surely up to them but I note that her vote increased by 16% in 2015 and a further 10% in 2017 so the evidence that they really object is...thin.
I agree with much of what @Cyclefree says. The Labour party has become a cult of personality and the Conservative party has become a cult of ideology. Labour’s immediate problems are more severe but more easily addressed. As a result Labour can be more aggressive to defectors and would-be defectors because it is easier to construct an eventual route to reunification. Once Conservative defectors have gone, they’re not coming back.
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
* If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
Typical , "I am all right Jack why don't they eat cakes" Tory opinion , just because it also happens somewhere else it is a good Tory policy to have people begging for some basic food so as not to starve.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
Because the SNP has no candidates outside of Scotland its a regional party which (because of it's lack of candidates outside Scotland) is irrelevant in political discussions outside Scotland.
That's probably why it ends up on QT when it's from Scotland as the number of times QT comes from Scotland is roughly equivalent to the number of times the SNP should appear.
Were it a national party (and being honest back in 2015 the SNP would have had a decent chance of winning seats in Tyne and Wear) I suspect it would appear on QT far more often as it couldn't be ignored on the regional basis it currently is.
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
* If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
Typical , "I am all right Jack why don't they eat cakes" Tory opinion , just because it also happens somewhere else it is a good Tory policy to have people begging for some basic food so as not to starve. ---------------------------------------------------------- If Mr Duncan Smith told me the sun was shining I'd go and look out of the window to check!
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
He's seen on the box in TV reports though.
once in a blue moon, just look at BBC QT, totally unrepresented on regular basis, look at any newspaper , and rarely ever seen on TV given the position.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The graph ends a year ago. It's been hovering just below zero ever since, so in real terms the drop is starting to build up. More to the point, people are accustomed to sizeable year on year increases, and the recent sea change is starting to make people twitchy. Especially those trying to sell at a profit and finding that no one's buying.
Surely there is a phrase that could be used to identify said people without the word Jew in it. The fact they can't identify said phase says more about the Labour Leadership than anything else.
Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.
Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.
Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.
These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.
They might be suitable as London MPs.
London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.
Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.
It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.
Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.
Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.
It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).
I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.
Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.
On that basis few southerners will be allowed to be Labour MP's and vice versa. It would have ruled out most senior figures in the Parties in the past, as they were all to a greater or lesser extent dropped in. Wilson from Huddersfield represented Huyton. Hugh Dalton represented Bishop Auckland, James Callaghan from Portsmouth represented Cardiff. The list is endless, they are just three I remember. Selection should be about talent.
"Until last Monday there were nine political parties represented in the Commons, of which eight were in favour of remaining within the EU. Oh, and a sole independent — she was for remain as well. But then, last week, a political tornado blew apart this unrepresentative consensus, with the formation of an exciting new outfit, the Independent Group. So now we have a House of Commons where, in effect, 10 parties are represented, nine of them in favour of remain."
He really does display his idiocy rather flamboyantly, but it also does demonstrate how ideological and divisive politics has become, demonstrating @Cyclefree's header.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
"Until last Monday there were nine political parties represented in the Commons, of which eight were in favour of remaining within the EU. Oh, and a sole independent — she was for remain as well. But then, last week, a political tornado blew apart this unrepresentative consensus, with the formation of an exciting new outfit, the Independent Group. So now we have a House of Commons where, in effect, 10 parties are represented, nine of them in favour of remain."
The government is in favour of Brexit meaning Brexit. Labour is also committed to leaving, though on different terms, and Theresa May's current plan fails Labour's six tests. Nonetheless, it is clear Liddle's count is misleading.
David Cameron should have established a commission stuffed with ERG, Ukip and other Leave worthies, to shape Brexit before putting it to a referendum. Theresa May should have done so before triggering Article 50. The rationale is not some Remain trick but to ensure we had an actual plan. Five weeks out, we still do not.
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
He's seen on the box in TV reports though.
once in a blue moon, just look at BBC QT, totally unrepresented on regular basis, look at any newspaper , and rarely ever seen on TV given the position.
Malc, quit moaning. You had your chance for independence a few years ago, your lot didn't fancy it. Mind you, if Brexit is anything to go by, even if you did vote for it it'd be too difficult to achieve anyway!
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
I'm a 'bit' chary of citing Ian Duncan Smith as an authority.
The figure is from the main organisation, Tafel, that runs food banks in Germany.
"All of them are nonprofit organizations. The Tafel support more than 1.5 million people in need of food throughout the country – nearly one third of them are children and youth." https://www.tafel.de/english-information/
If IDS had got that wrong, it would have been very publicly debunked very quickly and thrown at him via Twitter, and interminably ever after.
I completely agree with Cyclefree. The key difference between the two is that with Brexit the Conservative leadership are in a suicide pact with the British public, whereas on anti-semitism I hope that there is still only a tiny minority of the public who have sympathy.
Does this make the situation better or worse for the Conservatives? I can see it both ways.
On the plus side they can install a new leader without that being an assault on Brexit itself. Such a new leader might be better at reaching out to Remainers, at explaining the process of compromise, etc. Corbyn is the embodiment of the left-wing Labour resurgence so it's hard to overthrow him without being seen to oppose that resurgence - rather than just the anti-semitism that has come with it.
On the negative side, much of the impetus for purity and dogmatism in matters Brexit comes from the public. They were asked a binary question and expect a binary result - not a pragmatic compromise. Whoever is PM has to deal with this public. Whereas, for politics on the centre-left only institutional inertia stands between them and a party of the left free of anti-semitism.
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.
Germany There are over 900 food banks in Germany, up from just 1 in 1993.[94] In 2014, 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
I didn't realise that. Thanks. At first sight I would assume that's due to refugees, but that's an assumption so may or may not be correct. Have you, Mr W, got a reference for that quote?
I'll have to ask my friend who does occasional shifts at a food bank what her experience is, in an area with, so far as I can see few refugees. And my Samaritan granddaughter.
Does anyone here have relevant experience, personal or associate. @dixiedean: I volunteer at a food bank. A small one, so anecdata alert. Why are food banks growing? (and we are.up 40% in visits in a year).
1 UC. Many people simply don't have the funds to go 5 weeks without any cash. I know you can get an advance, but. Many aren't aware of this, JC don't tell you, some don't want to, as it is effectively a debt, and most are rejected anyway I believe only 37% without checking get an advance. 2 Many, frankly, have serious mental illness. They can't manage a budget, and no employer would touch them in their current state. 3 A large proportion are aged 50+ and in poor health but judged "fit for work". They have neither the academic or IT literacy for a sitting down job, nor the physical wherewithal to be able to complete a day of the many cleaning or care work vacancies. Groups 2 and 3 have been hit by the benefits freeze and need help to find suitable work. Many of the programmes for doing just that have been cut.
Typical , "I am all right Jack why don't they eat cakes" Tory opinion , just because it also happens somewhere else it is a good Tory policy to have people begging for some basic food so as not to starve.
OK malc, we'll close the food banks, if it keeps you happy.....
Tip the food into landfill, like they did in Tony Blair's day.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).
In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:
I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.
No, yours is a very different role to that of a councillor or MP.
Glad to hear it but I would suggest it is closer than you think. Most of our politician's time is taken up with case work. If you are helping an asylum seeker from Syria who cares where you yourself come from? If you are trying to help someone whose homeless or living with damp, ditto. And for national politics (which, in my view, really should be an MP's focus) the local connection is not relevant at all. What do you think politicians gain from a local connection?
It can be very relevant. For instance, if you live 100 miles away from your constituency, you may favour (say) transport investment that improves your home, not your constituency. Or you will be more bothered about crime rates - and the associated social problems - in your constituency if you live nearby.
Then there is the issue that someone who is parachuted into a constituency a hundred miles from their home owes a fealty to the party who parachuted them in more than the constituency.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Confirmed by the fact that at the 1997 boundary review London actually lost 10 seats, down from 84 to 74, (having previously lost 10 in 1983). And at the last review in 2010 it lost another seat, down to 73.
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
I was not aware that was so in the 70s. It is something I guess. Although aren't the FN in France more supported by the young than the old? So I guess it is not a universal thing.
I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
Perhaps mine . I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
Green Book is lovely, but perhaps a bit slight for an Oscar. Not very much happens, except that the protagonists learn to like each other. You leave the movie feeling happier about the world and enhanced as an individual, and that's great. But it's hard to imagine it being watched in 10 years' time.
I think that's right but I struggled with most of the nominees, Roma was beautifully photographed and directed and deserves an oscar for best direction and best cinematograhy but I found it emotionally uninvolving which was essential to make the film work. It's also nominated for best foreign language film. In this category I think it does have competition. I thought 'Shoplifters' was an excellent film. A Japanese 'Oliver' and for those looking for an outsider a worthwhile bet
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
My understanding is that young Nazis are more into terrorism than demonstrations.
I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
Perhaps mine . I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
Green Book is lovely, but perhaps a bit slight for an Oscar. Not very much happens, except that the protagonists learn to like each other. You leave the movie feeling happier about the world and enhanced as an individual, and that's great. But it's hard to imagine it being watched in 10 years' time.
I think that's right but I struggled with most of the nominees, Roma was beautifully photographed and directed and deserves an oscar for best direction and best cinematograhy but I found it emotionally uninvolving which was essential to make the film work. It's also nominated for best foreign language film. In this category I think it does have competition. I thought 'Shopliters' was an excellent film. A Japanese 'Oliver' and for those looking for an outsider a worthwhile bet
Roma is beautiful but dull.
I reckon Cold War is a good dark horse for Cinematography.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
Because the SNP has no candidates outside of Scotland its a regional party which (because of it's lack of candidates outside Scotland) is irrelevant in political discussions outside Scotland.
That's probably why it ends up on QT when it's from Scotland as the number of times QT comes from Scotland is roughly equivalent to the number of times the SNP should appear.
Were it a national party (and being honest back in 2015 the SNP would have had a decent chance of winning seats in Tyne and Wear) I suspect it would appear on QT far more often as it couldn't be ignored on the regional basis it currently is.
However , even on the few occasions it is in Scotland it is still under represented and audiences are stuffed with unionists. Fact is they are still treated like shit instead of a major political party, mirrors Scotland's treatment in the union overall. I know same applies to North etc but that is no compensation.
@dixiedean: I volunteer at a food bank. A small one, so anecdata alert. Why are food banks growing? (and we are.up 40% in visits in a year).
1 UC. Many people simply don't have the funds to go 5 weeks without any cash. I know you can get an advance, but. Many aren't aware of this, JC don't tell you, some don't want to, as it is effectively a debt, and most are rejected anyway I believe only 37% without checking get an advance. 2 Many, frankly, have serious mental illness. They can't manage a budget, and no employer would touch them in their current state. 3 A large proportion are aged 50+ and in poor health but judged "fit for work". They have neither the academic or IT literacy for a sitting down job, nor the physical wherewithal to be able to complete a day of the many cleaning or care work vacancies. Groups 2 and 3 have been hit by the benefits freeze and need help to find suitable work. Many of the programmes for doing just that have been cut.
Anecdotal I know. Typical? Who knows?
On 2), when my dad was in business, he employed a lot of labourers. None were thick, as the sort of labouring they were doing could be in semi-dangerous environments, and he could not afford to employ dullards. He also paid more than other local companies, because of the nature of the work - and had some men remain with him for decades in what can be a transitory form of work.
He preferred to pay the men monthly by cheque. However many - about half - preferred to be paid weekly in cash. The reason? If they get paid weekly, then they can manage a couple of days without money. If they got paid monthly, they'd blow it all in a couple of weeks and then be cashless for a couple of weeks. These people were often the ones who, on pay day, would go straight to the pub after work.
A couple of others got paid by cheque, and had their wives budget everything and give them cash.
Don't overestimate the ability of people to budget. And why should they, when a fifth of pupils leave school functionally innumerate (a figure that to our shame has remained more or less static for decades)?
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.
Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.
Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.
These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.
They might be suitable as London MPs.
London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.
Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
A willingness to engage with and understand an area is important if you are to represent them properly. To many ambitious politicos - understably - see London as where their careers will be made so their focus shifts.
I think it would be solved by divorcing the executive from the legislature
Typical , "I am all right Jack why don't they eat cakes" Tory opinion , just because it also happens somewhere else it is a good Tory policy to have people begging for some basic food so as not to starve.
OK malc, we'll close the food banks, if it keeps you happy.....
Tip the food into landfill, like they did in Tony Blair's day.
Maybe they should get a heart and try to implement some social policies that reduce the need for foodbanks rather than lauding their expansion. They have made things much worse through ideology and incompetence. Emulating Tory Blair would be little difference.
PS: result apart did you have a pleasant day at Rugby, hopefully was a good game.
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
I was not aware that was so in the 70s. It is something I guess. Although aren't the FN in France more supported by the young than the old? So I guess it is not a universal thing.
Yep, France seems much more racially polarised - perhaps because it is far less integrated. My memory of the NF and BNP marches of those 70s and 80s is that they were largely composed of skinheads. I guess those same people are now just fatter and following Tommy Robinson around.
Heidi Allen on Marr confirms the intention is to stand TIG candidates at the next general election but the focus is on getting the new party's infrastructure in place first
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
Yet it only overtook its 1939 population last year.
I completely agree with Cyclefree. The key difference between the two is that with Brexit the Conservative leadership are in a suicide pact with the British public, whereas on anti-semitism I hope that there is still only a tiny minority of the public who have sympathy.
Does this make the situation better or worse for the Conservatives? I can see it both ways.
On the plus side they can install a new leader without that being an assault on Brexit itself. Such a new leader might be better at reaching out to Remainers, at explaining the process of compromise, etc. Corbyn is the embodiment of the left-wing Labour resurgence so it's hard to overthrow him without being seen to oppose that resurgence - rather than just the anti-semitism that has come with it.
On the negative side, much of the impetus for purity and dogmatism in matters Brexit comes from the public. They were asked a binary question and expect a binary result - not a pragmatic compromise. Whoever is PM has to deal with this public. Whereas, for politics on the centre-left only institutional inertia stands between them and a party of the left free of anti-semitism.
The last paragraph is a very good one. The party members are fairly representative of their voter bases.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
People move to London when young, and move out when they have families. Twas always so.
Leicester's population is also booming, up more than 16% 2001-11, yet houseprices are stagnant. London housing is expensive because that is where the money is. Houseprices reflect the local economics.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
Two countries. London has the problems of success. The rest of the country has the problems of failure.
Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.
The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
OKC, they are ignored in general, told to F off , go home etc and most times all the morons walk out etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole and the supposed union the better.
He's seen on the box in TV reports though.
once in a blue moon, just look at BBC QT, totally unrepresented on regular basis, look at any newspaper , and rarely ever seen on TV given the position.
Malc, quit moaning. You had your chance for independence a few years ago, your lot didn't fancy it. Mind you, if Brexit is anything to go by, even if you did vote for it it'd be too difficult to achieve anyway!
Twisted, I am allowed to moan , just because the fearties did not vote for it does not mean I have to be happy about it. Will be interesting to see Brexit and then independence and then back in EU, that will occupy things in Scotland for a few years. PS: Having a moan is good for you
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
Not just housing (and services). It is one reason London's economy boomed. More people means more talent, more entrepreneurs. More people also means more demand. It is a virtuous circle driving growth. That is what the rest of the country needs, and that is what is missed by those who would further relax housing restrictions in London: we need to spread prosperity around the country and that means people, and also investment.
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
I was not aware that was so in the 70s. It is something I guess. Although aren't the FN in France more supported by the young than the old? So I guess it is not a universal thing.
Le Pen and Front National got their biggest support from voters aged 35 to 49 in 2017, about the same demographic that gives Tommy Robinson most of his supporters
@dixiedean: I volunteer at a food bank. A small one, so anecdata alert. Why are food banks growing? (and we are.up 40% in visits in a year).
1 UC. Many people simply don't have the funds to go 5 weeks without any cash. I know you can get an advance, but. Many aren't aware of this, JC don't tell you, some don't want to, as it is effectively a debt, and most are rejected anyway I believe only 37% without checking get an advance. 2 Many, frankly, have serious mental illness. They can't manage a budget, and no employer would touch them in their current state. 3 A large proportion are aged 50+ and in poor health but judged "fit for work". They have neither the academic or IT literacy for a sitting down job, nor the physical wherewithal to be able to complete a day of the many cleaning or care work vacancies. Groups 2 and 3 have been hit by the benefits freeze and need help to find suitable work. Many of the programmes for doing just that have been cut.
1 - Agree. I am not aware whether there are other eg weekly options. The initial transition to UC is as difficult - and is creating some degree of havoc for both Social Sector and Private Tenants.
One formerly self-employed person known to me has been in the application process for nearly 3 months now.
2 - No personal experience.
3 - My example in 1 is currently working with Job Centre Plus after a self-employed business proved insufficiently successful. I have yet to see how successful it will be.
I think that eventually this will be got right, but salami slicing of resources over a sequence of years has heavily undermined the original intention.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Manchester and Liverpool have both seen population increases of around 25% over the most recent 10 year census period. Though a) both cities had sunk a long way from their population peaks so there was a lot of slack to pick up, and b) this is the cities themselves rather than the wider city region - so we don't face anything like the same levels of overcrowding or unaffordability that London does. Yet. Still, a vignette from the North West from last week: a consultation event on a proposed large scale development site outside Manchester, manned by perky public sector officers and attended largely by those worried or angry about the prospect of losscof greenfield land. A woman passes through: by her clothes, probably a cleaner. "I'm not really supposed to be here, I'm supposed to be at work, but I'm just interested,," she says to one of the perky public sector officers. Then, under her breath, she continue "Please just build them. I don't care what they look like, just build them. I'm desperate for somewhere. I apply every week, but there's nothing. I'm living in a one bedroom flat in Wythenshawe with two teenage sons. They have to share a sofa-bed. Been there for the last three years. It's no way to live, is it? Please just get them built. "
Have so many GEs in a short space of time I guess it's inevitable either someone new will come along, or someone around a long time doing badly might get a chance
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
I was not aware that was so in the 70s. It is something I guess. Although aren't the FN in France more supported by the young than the old? So I guess it is not a universal thing.
Le Pen and Front National got their biggest support from voters aged 35 to 49 in 2017, about the same demographic that gives Tommy Robinson most of his supporters
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
Two countries. London has the problems of success. The rest of the country has the problems of failure.
What, all of it? What about places like West London (Bristol)?
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
Not just housing (and services). It is one reason London's economy boomed. More people means more talent, more entrepreneurs. More people also means more demand. It is a virtuous circle driving growth. That is what the rest of the country needs, and that is what is missed by those who would further relax housing restrictions in London: we need to spread prosperity around the country and that means people, and also investment.
Most government departments could be moved out of London and spread around the regional cities. London can manage without them.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
People move to London when young, and move out when they have families. Twas always so.
Leicester's population is also booming, up more than 16% 2001-11, yet houseprices are stagnant. London housing is expensive because that is where the money is. Houseprices reflect the local economics.
It is the laundry for the worlds despots and neer do wells, they exchange their ill gotten wealth for bricks and mortar and do not have to worry about the price.
Spohy Ridge being dominated by her guests. Sometimes she is far too gentle in interviews
You are too nice G , she is useless. Promoted well beyond her level and a pushover for mouthy politicians.
Good morning Malc - she is a pushover in many of her interviews
Lovely morning here - how is it with you in 'God's own Country'
Morning G, very pleasant morning , sun shining and mild. Hope all is well with you.
Indeed it is. Thank you
I believe the UK broke its since-records-began warmest February night (presumably highest minimum) last week
We did not have our heating on last thursday for the first time since October
Been mild here but not enough to have heating off. PS: Mind you that is running about in shirt or tee shirt, in old days we would have stuck a sweater on.
Tight line to walk for Labour. Promising their own theoretical Brexit is fine if people think they will get in power and have a chance to renegotiate, but this is an issue now and we can hardly put a unicorn up against Remain in a referendum.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
Yet it only overtook its 1939 population last year.
What goes up....
At least 2 other factors affect that.
One is that we now expect more space per person in a house.
Two is household fragmentation, which requires more dwellings for the same population. I think household size is more than 10% smaller than a generation ago. That us 10% more units required for the same no of people.
Eight million people in London probably (estimate) now require 1.5-2 million dwellings than they did in 1939.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
People move to London when young, and move out when they have families. Twas always so.
Leicester's population is also booming, up more than 16% 2001-11, yet houseprices are stagnant. London housing is expensive because that is where the money is. Houseprices reflect the local economics.
Looking locally house prices are the same as they were back in 2004 thanks to the sheer amount of housing being built (500+ a year in a town of 100,000)..
Honestly the only reason I haven't see every Best Picture nominee is that I didn't see Green Book and Vice right away and they immediately seemed to drop to one screening a day at 9pm, and bugger if I am doing that (I have whinges on the internet to write at 11pm onwards). But it is still way more nominees than I usually see, I feel quite classy.
@dixiedean: I volunteer at a food bank. A small one, so anecdata alert. Why are food banks growing? (and we are.up 40% in visits in a year).
1 UC. Many people simply don't have the funds to go 5 weeks without any cash. I know you can get an advance, but. Many aren't aware of this, JC don't tell you, some don't want to, as it is effectively a debt, and most are rejected anyway I believe only 37% without checking get an advance. 2 Many, frankly, have serious mental illness. They can't manage a budget, and no employer would touch them in their current state. 3 A large proportion are aged 50+ and in poor health but judged "fit for work". They have neither the academic or IT literacy for a sitting down job, nor the physical wherewithal to be able to complete a day of the many cleaning or care work vacancies. Groups 2 and 3 have been hit by the benefits freeze and need help to find suitable work. Many of the programmes for doing just that have been cut.
1 - Agree. I am not aware whether there are other eg weekly options. The initial transition to UC is as difficult - and is creating some degree of havoc for both Social Sector and Private Tenants.
One formerly self-employed person known to me has been in the application process for nearly 3 months now.
2 - No personal experience.
3 - My example in 1 is currently working with Job Centre Plus after a self-employed business proved insufficiently successful. I have yet to see how successful it will be.
I think that eventually this will be got right, but salami slicing of resources over a sequence of years has heavily undermined the original intention.
Problem is that UC is a good idea , ineptly handled and thought out as well as badly deployed. The public services in this country are pathetic at actually doing anything other than exceeding budgets and making a mess of any policies etc.
Never underesimtate the ability of people to think there is a crisis of the soul and get by just fine. They love sounding dramatic, but ask how many would ever contemplate leaving and turns out it may be a crisis but not so much as they think.
Spohy Ridge being dominated by her guests. Sometimes she is far too gentle in interviews
You are too nice G , she is useless. Promoted well beyond her level and a pushover for mouthy politicians.
Good morning Malc - she is a pushover in many of her interviews
Lovely morning here - how is it with you in 'God's own Country'
Morning G, very pleasant morning , sun shining and mild. Hope all is well with you.
Indeed it is. Thank you
I believe the UK broke its since-records-began warmest February night (presumably highest minimum) last week
We did not have our heating on last thursday for the first time since October
Looking at my diary for this last year, I note that "Lovely day but cold, and the forecast is for what is described as the Beast from the East, a region of high pressure moving west from Siberia, bringing, allegedly, very cold weather and possibly snow."
Wednesday of that week starts "Woke to several inches of snow this morning. The Beast from the East has finally arrived! Was going to the gym this morning. Ha! That’s an idea which has been dropped."
Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
I'm a 'bit' chary of citing Ian Duncan Smith as an authority.
The figure is from the main organisation, Tafel, that runs food banks in Germany.
"All of them are nonprofit organizations. The Tafel support more than 1.5 million people in need of food throughout the country – nearly one third of them are children and youth." https://www.tafel.de/english-information/
If IDS had got that wrong, it would have been very publicly debunked very quickly and thrown at him via Twitter, and interminably ever after.
Their system of working with grocers and retailers to use excess & otherwise wasted food seems (admirably) as much of a principle as feeding the needy.
House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.
Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.
Is there another London I don't know about?
Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
So prices were rising even in London until March last year and as recently as 2016 were rising at 14% a year. My understanding is that prices are now falling but not by much other than in the BTL market. London has the greatest problem of affordability and needs a sustained period of static prices. Of course if you think of your house as your pension fund (as many Londoners do for obvious reasons) then this is not particularly attractive.
In 1991, London’s population was 6.4m. In 2016, it was 8.8m (source, TrustforLondon). How many other major British cities have seen such growth? If it continues, what would be the driver for static prices?
Since 1991, London has added more than the current populations of Birmingham, Manchester and Liverpool combined.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
And yet, each year, more people already resident in the England and Wales leave London than move to London.
Two countries. London has the problems of success. The rest of the country has the problems of failure.
It's a funny kind of success when people a leaving faster than they are arriving.
Honestly the only reason I haven't see every Best Picture nominee is that I didn't see Green Book and Vice right away and they immediately seemed to drop to one screening a day at 9pm, and bugger if I am doing that (I have whinges on the internet to write at 11pm onwards). But it is still way more nominees than I usually see, I feel quite classy.
Has anyone seen ‘On The Basis of Sex’? Looks about the best on offer at our local cinema this week.
One striking thing about the far right gatherings you see these days: those attending are generally middle aged or older. In the 70s and 80s the NF and BNP marches attracted much younger, mostly male, participants. Racism just seems unfathomable to most young people now. That’s progress!
I was not aware that was so in the 70s. It is something I guess. Although aren't the FN in France more supported by the young than the old? So I guess it is not a universal thing.
Le Pen and Front National got their biggest support from voters aged 35 to 49 in 2017, about the same demographic that gives Tommy Robinson most of his supporters
Heidi Allen on Marr. 'Yes, we are to become a party'
Obvious question: If they are so clear on that, why the delay in doing so when they sound ready?
As Allen said they are not yet fully ready that is precisely the point, their focus is on getting the party infrastructure and membership in place first, entirely sensible before they can effectively fight an election campaign
Comments
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britains-opioid-epidemic-kills-five-every-day-83md7wc3k
Germany
There are over 900 food banks in Germany, up from just 1 in 1993.[94] In 2014, 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
I didn't realise that. Thanks.
At first sight I would assume that's due to refugees, but that's an assumption so may or may not be correct.
Have you, Mr W, got a reference for that quote?
I'll have to ask my friend who does occasional shifts at a food bank what her experience is, in an area with, so far as I can see few refugees. And my Samaritan granddaughter.
Does anyone here have relevant experience, personal or associate.
TIG may have changed things but until things are formalised you can see why a Brexit supporting leader may continue to ignore the other side of the argument.
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
In an interview with BBC One's Sunday Politics, Mr Duncan Smith said 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30470120
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
* If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
___________________________________________________________________
I'm a 'bit' chary of citing Ian Duncan Smith as an authority.
"Until last Monday there were nine political parties represented in the Commons, of which eight were in favour of remaining within the EU. Oh, and a sole independent — she was for remain as well. But then, last week, a political tornado blew apart this unrepresentative consensus, with the formation of an exciting new outfit, the Independent Group. So now we have a House of Commons where, in effect, 10 parties are represented, nine of them in favour of remain."
The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.
In an interview with BBC One's Sunday Politics, Mr Duncan Smith said 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30470120
Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?
* If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
Typical , "I am all right Jack why don't they eat cakes" Tory opinion , just because it also happens somewhere else it is a good Tory policy to have people begging for some basic food so as not to starve.
https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2018/05/23/why-are-london-house-prices-falling/
The trend has continued, though up to date graphs are hard to find. In London about 8% fall in real terms in 2 years. See for example the Nationwide Regional Index.
That's probably why it ends up on QT when it's from Scotland as the number of times QT comes from Scotland is roughly equivalent to the number of times the SNP should appear.
Were it a national party (and being honest back in 2015 the SNP would have had a decent chance of winning seats in Tyne and Wear) I suspect it would appear on QT far more often as it couldn't be ignored on the regional basis it currently is.
----------------------------------------------------------
If Mr Duncan Smith told me the sun was shining I'd go and look out of the window to check!
"Many people are looking for a party that leans to the left economically and to the right culturally".
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/tigger-mps-will-lose-their-bounce-when-they-bump-into-the-voters-tf69r09px
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/23/liverpool-wavertree-labour-constituency-antisemitism-luciana-berger-derek-hatton
David Cameron should have established a commission stuffed with ERG, Ukip and other Leave worthies, to shape Brexit before putting it to a referendum. Theresa May should have done so before triggering Article 50. The rationale is not some Remain trick but to ensure we had an actual plan. Five weeks out, we still do not.
"All of them are nonprofit organizations. The Tafel support more than 1.5 million people in need of food throughout the country – nearly one third of them are children and youth."
https://www.tafel.de/english-information/
If IDS had got that wrong, it would have been very publicly debunked very quickly and thrown at him via Twitter, and interminably ever after.
Does this make the situation better or worse for the Conservatives? I can see it both ways.
On the plus side they can install a new leader without that being an assault on Brexit itself. Such a new leader might be better at reaching out to Remainers, at explaining the process of compromise, etc. Corbyn is the embodiment of the left-wing Labour resurgence so it's hard to overthrow him without being seen to oppose that resurgence - rather than just the anti-semitism that has come with it.
On the negative side, much of the impetus for purity and dogmatism in matters Brexit comes from the public. They were asked a binary question and expect a binary result - not a pragmatic compromise. Whoever is PM has to deal with this public. Whereas, for politics on the centre-left only institutional inertia stands between them and a party of the left free of anti-semitism.
At first sight I would assume that's due to refugees, but that's an assumption so may or may not be correct.
Have you, Mr W, got a reference for that quote?
I'll have to ask my friend who does occasional shifts at a food bank what her experience is, in an area with, so far as I can see few refugees. And my Samaritan granddaughter.
Does anyone here have relevant experience, personal or associate.
@dixiedean:
I volunteer at a food bank. A small one, so anecdata alert.
Why are food banks growing? (and we are.up 40% in visits in a year).
1 UC. Many people simply don't have the funds to go 5 weeks without any cash. I know you can get an advance, but. Many aren't aware of this, JC don't tell you, some don't want to, as it is effectively a debt, and most are rejected anyway I believe only 37% without checking get an advance.
2 Many, frankly, have serious mental illness. They can't manage a budget, and no employer would touch them in their current state.
3 A large proportion are aged 50+ and in poor health but judged "fit for work". They have neither the academic or IT literacy for a sitting down job, nor the physical wherewithal to be able to complete a day of the many cleaning or care work vacancies.
Groups 2 and 3 have been hit by the benefits freeze and need help to find suitable work. Many of the programmes for doing just that have been cut.
Anecdotal I know. Typical? Who knows?
Lovely morning here - how is it with you in 'God's own Country'
Tip the food into landfill, like they did in Tony Blair's day.
Then there is the issue that someone who is parachuted into a constituency a hundred miles from their home owes a fealty to the party who parachuted them in more than the constituency.
I reckon Cold War is a good dark horse for Cinematography.
No wonder its housing is so screwed.
Fact is they are still treated like shit instead of a major political party, mirrors Scotland's treatment in the union overall.
I know same applies to North etc but that is no compensation.
He preferred to pay the men monthly by cheque. However many - about half - preferred to be paid weekly in cash. The reason? If they get paid weekly, then they can manage a couple of days without money. If they got paid monthly, they'd blow it all in a couple of weeks and then be cashless for a couple of weeks. These people were often the ones who, on pay day, would go straight to the pub after work.
A couple of others got paid by cheque, and had their wives budget everything and give them cash.
Don't overestimate the ability of people to budget. And why should they, when a fifth of pupils leave school functionally innumerate (a figure that to our shame has remained more or less static for decades)?
I think it would be solved by divorcing the executive from the legislature
Emulating Tory Blair would be little difference.
PS: result apart did you have a pleasant day at Rugby, hopefully was a good game.
But it’s not helpful to equate freedom of movement EU-definition with visa free access.
What goes up....
Leicester's population is also booming, up more than 16% 2001-11, yet houseprices are stagnant. London housing is expensive because that is where the money is. Houseprices reflect the local economics.
PS: Having a moan is good for you
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election
@Dixiedean.
Thanks for that.
1 - Agree. I am not aware whether there are other eg weekly options. The initial transition to UC is as difficult - and is creating some degree of havoc for both Social Sector and Private Tenants.
One formerly self-employed person known to me has been in the application process for nearly 3 months now.
2 - No personal experience.
3 - My example in 1 is currently working with Job Centre Plus after a self-employed business proved insufficiently successful. I have yet to see how successful it will be.
I think that eventually this will be got right, but salami slicing of resources over a sequence of years has heavily undermined the original intention.
Still, a vignette from the North West from last week: a consultation event on a proposed large scale development site outside Manchester, manned by perky public sector officers and attended largely by those worried or angry about the prospect of losscof greenfield land. A woman passes through: by her clothes, probably a cleaner. "I'm not really supposed to be here, I'm supposed to be at work, but I'm just interested,," she says to one of the perky public sector officers. Then, under her breath, she continue "Please just build them. I don't care what they look like, just build them. I'm desperate for somewhere. I apply every week, but there's nothing. I'm living in a one bedroom flat in Wythenshawe with two teenage sons. They have to share a sofa-bed. Been there for the last three years. It's no way to live, is it? Please just get them built. "
https://twitter.com/matthewbennett/status/1099617269133570048?s=21
https://twitter.com/SkySportsNews/status/1099616608593608705?s=19
'Crisis for the soul of the party'
It does look like a fundamental split is coming
PS: Mind you that is running about in shirt or tee shirt, in old days we would have stuck a sweater on.
One is that we now expect more space per person in a house.
Two is household fragmentation, which requires more dwellings for the same population. I think household size is more than 10% smaller than a generation ago. That us 10% more units required for the same no of people.
Eight million people in London probably (estimate) now require 1.5-2 million dwellings than they did in 1939.
Here you go. Average household size.
And given the state of the Houses Of Parliament it would make sense to do so...
Wednesday of that week starts "Woke to several inches of snow this morning. The Beast from the East has finally arrived! Was going to the gym this morning. Ha! That’s an idea which has been dropped."
I wonder how many of the recipients are refugees?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1099620160560906240
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1099620584496029697