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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Birds of a Feather

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Birds of a Feather

Many Tories seem to think that, however bad their problems, they are as nothing compared to the complaints about bullying and anti-Semitism so widely canvassed by ex-Labour MPs this week. They have yet to be accused of racism by tearful MPs, the polls appear to put them in a small lead and once Brexit is sorted they can get back to doing what they do best, or so the hope appears to be. (Though whether a party which claims to have learnt the lessons of the dementia tax proposal thinks that rushing through without proper debate death taxes by way of large increases in probate fees has really learnt those lessons is perhaps for another time.)

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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    second
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    third
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Gold, Silver and Bronze awards!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nine-more-mps-set-quit-14043694
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    In more important news.

    The naked women adorning Britain's churches.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-45116614

    Jonathan said:
    How are you supposed to play Wom when the bat is that cute?
    That's only half of the too-cute-for-the-sport problem, how is any decent human being supposed to hit the Womballs?
    Officially the most surreal diversion ever on PB.
    Scott_P said:
    Weve heard about the ERG backtracking before. I won't believe it unless the DUP switch first to give them cover.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    FPT
    kle4 said:

    Has the TIG managed to take many members/footsoldiers with it? Without any base to speak of, they will die. Is there any evidence of cllrs, MEPs, MSPs, AMs actually shifting, is it just a bit more of the westminster bubble?

    I don't see how any can shift with them until/if they become an actual party. Local authorities have many and varied independents and it's a damn site easier for them to win as such than MPs so a few will already have quit their parties with the catalyst of the tiggers perhaps.

    But en masse and in other areas? The only thing the tiggers agree on in policy terms is stopping brexit and not backing Jeremy Corbyn as PM. Both are wholly the business of Parliament so why would many jump to the tiggers on that alone, even if they agree? Especially as on Brexit labour may or may not do precisely as the tiggers want in the coming weeks?

    Unless the tiggers sustain momentum over the coming weeks with more defections I really struggle to see them coalescing into an actual movement. There's currently no leader, no shared ideology, they cannot even get all independents on board, how to build on that without the force of persistent defections lending a weight of inevitability to it? Especially as the 'you'll ensure the Tories will win' is a powerful counter.

    There seem to be nothing more than vague rumours that anyone else is coming to them now, quite the contrast to the excitement last week where specific people were strongly linked to it before jumping. Any potential others seen to be waiting on brexit developments, and surely even May and Corbyn are not so stupid as to push dozens off their MPs to quit? Surely?

    And until that happens no sense abandoning the current structures for anyone else outside of Westminster. I fear we've reached the high mark of the bounce of the tiggers. I hope they can do more than perhaps gain a couple more disaffected MPs, but I'm pessimistic.
    Please let it be wrong. Will May and Corbyn be so silly as to provoke more splitters?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Hard hitting conclusion. The parties and sides redefine pragmatism as whatever they suggest. The stab in the back myth is also very pervasive and depressing.

    I'm not as certain about both May and Corbyn not even attempting to persuade people because they are leader and that is that (incidentally that was essentially a criticism I had with the character Laura Roslin in Battlestar Galactica, who often opined that you don't need to explain yourself as president, but I digress) or whether they really do think they are trying they are just utterly hopeless at it and don't understand why.

    The most vital point for me is that what is going on is not normal broad church politics. Whether one likes them or not is thank the tiggers for making that clear through the sheer drama and unusual situation that is multiple defections. The most vital problem though is the demand for purity. It's utterly bonkers yet very popular and neither side is strong enough or willing enough to fight.

    Hence, we are screwed .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Hard hitting conclusion. The parties and sides redefine pragmatism as whatever they suggest. The stab in the back myth is also very pervasive and depressing.

    I'm not as certain about both May and Corbyn not even attempting to persuade people because they are leader and that is that (incidentally that was essentially a criticism I had with the character Laura Roslin in Battlestar Galactica, who often opined that you don't need to explain yourself as president, but I digress) or whether they really do think they are trying they are just utterly hopeless at it and don't understand why.

    The most vital point for me is that what is going on is not normal broad church politics. Whether one likes them or not is thank the tiggers for making that clear through the sheer drama and unusual situation that is multiple defections.

    The most vital problem though is the demand for purity. It's utterly bonkers yet very popular and neither side is strong enough or willing enough to fight it. The most numerous demanders of purity win. This demand also explains why every time someone is rumoured to be conceding something they swiftly reassert their purity and nothing changes. The DUP, ERG, Grievers, May, Corbyn, Lab Remainers even in fairness the Tiggers, they aren't bending.

    Hence, we are screwed .
  • kle4 said:

    Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nine-more-mps-set-quit-14043694

    The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Too late for Labour on antisemitism.. it goes with "Brand Labour"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Too late for Labour on antisemitism.. it goes with "Brand Labour"

    Haven't you heard? There's no problem. It's just the right-wing media and the far-right Labour MPs (with their secretive Jewish backing) that are causing the trouble. And anyone who dares argue that the Palestinians should stop firing rockets - sorry, I meant 'fireworks' - at the Israelis are Islamophobes .... :)

    Joking aide, such are the depths of depravity that many Labour supporters have sunk into.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Off-topic:

    Please forgive me for going off-topic so early in a thread, but for anyone interested in naval history, then there is a rather excellent YouTube channel by Drachinfel that is well worth a watch: https://www.youtube.com/user/Drachinifel

    In particular, his recent video on the CSS Virginia versus the USS Monitor makes me think of May versus Corbyn: two hastily-assembled vessels, applied with thick armour skin, with puny, unsuitable weapons that just bounce off each other. After their one battle neither lasted long, with one being blown up by its own side, and the other, which was totally unsuited for life at sea, foundering.

    Now, which one is May, and which one is Corbyn... ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28vougAE7LM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nine-more-mps-set-quit-14043694

    Rare to see a newspaper story based on little more than sums.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618

    Gold, Silver and Bronze awards!

    Congratulations, you have won the World Series of Firsting.

    Your mother must be so proud.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    edited February 2019
    A standing ovation from me, Ms Cyclefree!!

    The reason why many on the centre-left opposed Corbyn from the get-go was that he had stood in solidarity with anti-Semites and all anti-Western regimes and causes, however murderous, for decades. You can argue about economic policy, but ultimately some things are just beyond the pale. His past is what has always made him unfit to lead.

    As for the Tories, their UKIPification is a surprise. I always thought they were pragmatic and certainly pro-business. It turns out they’re largely hard right English nationalists at grassroots level and as intolerant of dissent as their Labour contemporaries.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    So a "centrist" party has strengthened the most pro-Brexit parties. Genius!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    Hard hitting conclusion. The parties and sides redefine pragmatism as whatever they suggest. The stab in the back myth is also very pervasive and depressing.

    I'm not as certain about both May and Corbyn not even attempting to persuade people because they are leader and that is that (incidentally that was essentially a criticism I had with the character Laura Roslin in Battlestar Galactica, who often opined that you don't need to explain yourself as president, but I digress) or whether they really do think they are trying they are just utterly hopeless at it and don't understand why.

    The most vital point for me is that what is going on is not normal broad church politics. Whether one likes them or not is thank the tiggers for making that clear through the sheer drama and unusual situation that is multiple defections.

    The most vital problem though is the demand for purity. It's utterly bonkers yet very popular and neither side is strong enough or willing enough to fight it. The most numerous demanders of purity win. This demand also explains why every time someone is rumoured to be conceding something they swiftly reassert their purity and nothing changes. The DUP, ERG, Grievers, May, Corbyn, Lab Remainers even in fairness the Tiggers, they aren't bending.

    Hence, we are screwed .

    Twice, by the look of it?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Whatever happens in the coming weeks will be ugly.

    Excepting the next F1 test and first race of the season, although the start time of the Australian Grand Prix might be a bit irksome.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263
    Article of the year, Cyclefree.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn, so dense light bends round him...

    https://twitter.com/sazmeister88/status/1099438078131879936
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Gold, Silver and Bronze awards!

    Congratulations, you have won the World Series of Firsting.

    Your mother must be so proud.
    My mother is a wonderful person. She was there for me when my wife died. A truly wonderful mother.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618

    Gold, Silver and Bronze awards!

    Congratulations, you have won the World Series of Firsting.

    Your mother must be so proud.
    My mother is a wonderful person. She was there for me when my wife died. A truly wonderful mother.
    You are very fortunate indeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263

    Off-topic:

    Please forgive me for going off-topic so early in a thread, but for anyone interested in naval history, then there is a rather excellent YouTube channel by Drachinfel that is well worth a watch: https://www.youtube.com/user/Drachinifel

    In particular, his recent video on the CSS Virginia versus the USS Monitor makes me think of May versus Corbyn: two hastily-assembled vessels, applied with thick armour skin, with puny, unsuitable weapons that just bounce off each other. After their one battle neither lasted long, with one being blown up by its own side, and the other, which was totally unsuited for life at sea, foundering.

    Now, which one is May, and which one is Corbyn... ;)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28vougAE7LM

    More importantly, I hope they are not the flawed but definitive model for all future party leaders....

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    Ms Cyclefree's comments are always worth reading, and this header is a tour de force. Congratulations, and thank you
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2019

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263

    Ms Cyclefree's comments are always worth reading, and this header is a tour de force. Congratulations, and thank you

    Yes - I’m almost persuaded to reassess my opinions on chocolate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
    Only racist against people with a funny tinge.

    That's OK then.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
    Only racist against people with a funny tinge.

    That's OK then.
    An early "misspeak" is hardly an indication of direction of travel.
    Lets not be too hasty to judge..The TIGS haven't done anything yet. Labour has lots of evidence to indicate anti-Semitism within the party.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
    Only racist against people with a funny tinge.

    That's OK then.
    An early "misspeak" is hardly an indication of direction of travel.
    Lets not be too hasty to judge..The TIGS haven't done anything yet. Labour has lots of evidence to indicate anti-Semitism within the party.
    Nah not lots.
  • Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2019

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.

    Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    edited February 2019
    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.
  • An enjoyable and trenchant article as ever, though I think Cyclefree glosses over the markedly different responses of Corbyn (“here’s your hat, where’s your hurry?) and his acolytes (feck off and die) and many (though far from all - some heroic exceptions) Labour MPs and May and most of the Tory MPs (more in sorrow than in anger, and one day we may work together again...). The Labour Tiggers are unpeople beyond the pale, the Tories on extended leave of absence.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited February 2019
    Russia has wasted hundreds of billions of dollars on nuclear weapons, ballistic and hypersonic missiles. It turns out all that is needed to defeat NATO are some fake web pages costing $60.

    Nato troops have been persuaded to abandon their posts and reveal sensitive details about military manoeuvres in a clandestine social media operation

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/23/catfishing-con-catches-nato-troops-report-reveals/
  • The odds, Ladbrokes, on a second referendum this year have fallen to 3.5. Can't recall what they were before, certainly at least 4.5.

    Some F1 specials up, none of which tempt me. The extra Drivers' market (winner without the top three teams/six drivers) has gone, which is a shame. Maybe it'll make a return.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    great article. I think the retreat of pragmatic centrism is a consequence of its failings under Cameron and blair, ie Iraq war, tuition fees, PFI, austerite.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Excellent header. Thought provoking content and well written.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Ok, Brexiters - your call:

    REVEALED: Turkey seeks free trade deal with Britain in exchange for freedom of movement

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/763220/Turkey-Theresa-May-free-trade-deal-UK-freedom-movement
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
    Only racist against people with a funny tinge.

    That's OK then.
    Your inability to recognise - or perhaps more accurately acknowledge - Labour's problem with anti-Semitism means that you're totally out of order in accusing or insinuating about other forms of racism.

    You are a tribal fool; the sort who will sit back and let evil happen if it is being done by 'your' team.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
    That was one of the best scenes.
    But agree, it was patchy, the tone not right, and ultimately felt cartoonish.
  • Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    nielh said:

    great article. I think the retreat of pragmatic centrism is a consequence of its failings under Cameron and blair, ie Iraq war, tuition fees, PFI, austerite.

    An odd list. There was nothing terribly pragmatic about the Iraq war but I do think it is true that the fact almost our entire political class (with some honourable exceptions such as Kennedy and the SNP) supported something so demonstrably based on lies destroyed a lot of trust in politics.

    On tuition fees our politicians have doubled down on failure by increasing the interest rate so that they could sell the book debt at a better price, almost like a medieval policy of selling indulgences. It is going to be a very expensive mess to clean up.

    PFI has many similar features. A short term way of solving a problem with long term adverse economic consequences. It's a classical political failing but I wouldn't call it pragmatic. Dishonest is more like it.

    "Austerity" has, to the extent that we ever applied it, worked rather well and the last 2 budgets have eased many of the pressures inevitably created. There is money to do the same again this year and I have no doubt we will.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
    That was one of the best scenes.
    But agree, it was patchy, the tone not right, and ultimately felt cartoonish.
    Yes - not best film but the editing was fantastic. Memorable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618
    edited February 2019

    Labour breakaway Chuka Umunna vows to 'forge new kind of politics' for UK future

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-breakaway-chuka-umunna-vows-14043341

    The new, kinder politics is dead then? Guess we have to blame shoddy workmanship from Corbyn....

    Well it won't be anti-Semitic, that's a given.
    Only racist against people with a funny tinge.

    That's OK then.
    An early "misspeak" is hardly an indication of direction of travel.
    Lets not be too hasty to judge..The TIGS haven't done anything yet. Labour has lots of evidence to indicate anti-Semitism within the party.
    Nah not lots.
    Going in to bat over just how anti-semitic Labour is..... Classy.

    Labour. The party that historically has positioned itself to strive for equality, to stand up for those the system puts down. Now it stands alone in this country for its vileness for putting people down. Quite an achievement, in such a short time.

    On topic, at least the Tories have an excuse for bending themselves all out of shape. Europe. They are arguing over trying to implement a decision of the voters. The most difficult to implement that we have known. Some consider it was a clear-cut binary choice that allows no options. Question: light switched on? Or light switched off? The voters went with light switched off. However, we have a political class scared of the dark. They want to keep the lights on. The PM has effectively said "How about we install dimmers?" It's a mess, but it has to be addressed. Democracy requires it.

    Labour - you have no excuse whatsoever. None. Nobody has said "Israel - we have to address Israel, and make ourselves anti-semitic in the process, to show how serious we are about Israel." No. No. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.....

    Labour, just crawl away and die under a hedge. It really would be best for all. Especially for those previously sane souls who now go about provoking ridicule as they try to justify the morally unjustifiable. Just stop it. At some point, in the nearish future, you are going to stand back and mutter to yourself "What the F*CK was I thinking?"
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
    Perhaps mine :). I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
    That was one of the best scenes.
    But agree, it was patchy, the tone not right, and ultimately felt cartoonish.
    Yes - not best film but the editing was fantastic. Memorable.
    I am not sure what you mean by "editing". I am not a film buff but to me editing is the process of creating a coherent and smooth story line with no obvious discrepancies. To me Vice seemed very episodic and almost incoherent at times. I would have regarded it as very poorly edited in that sense. Do you mean something else?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2019

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.

    Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    DavidL said:

    nielh said:

    great article. I think the retreat of pragmatic centrism is a consequence of its failings under Cameron and blair, ie Iraq war, tuition fees, PFI, austerite.

    An odd list. There was nothing terribly pragmatic about the Iraq war but I do think it is true that the fact almost our entire political class (with some honourable exceptions such as Kennedy and the SNP) supported something so demonstrably based on lies destroyed a lot of trust in politics.

    On tuition fees our politicians have doubled down on failure by increasing the interest rate so that they could sell the book debt at a better price, almost like a medieval policy of selling indulgences. It is going to be a very expensive mess to clean up.

    PFI has many similar features. A short term way of solving a problem with long term adverse economic consequences. It's a classical political failing but I wouldn't call it pragmatic. Dishonest is more like it.

    "Austerity" has, to the extent that we ever applied it, worked rather well and the last 2 budgets have eased many of the pressures inevitably created. There is money to do the same again this year and I have no doubt we will.
    and surely the Iraq War explains to a significant extent the rise of Corbyn within Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    nielh said:

    great article. I think the retreat of pragmatic centrism is a consequence of its failings under Cameron and blair, ie Iraq war, tuition fees, PFI, austerite.

    An odd list. There was nothing terribly pragmatic about the Iraq war but I do think it is true that the fact almost our entire political class (with some honourable exceptions such as Kennedy and the SNP) supported something so demonstrably based on lies destroyed a lot of trust in politics.

    On tuition fees our politicians have doubled down on failure by increasing the interest rate so that they could sell the book debt at a better price, almost like a medieval policy of selling indulgences. It is going to be a very expensive mess to clean up.

    PFI has many similar features. A short term way of solving a problem with long term adverse economic consequences. It's a classical political failing but I wouldn't call it pragmatic. Dishonest is more like it.

    "Austerity" has, to the extent that we ever applied it, worked rather well and the last 2 budgets have eased many of the pressures inevitably created. There is money to do the same again this year and I have no doubt we will.
    and surely the Iraq War explains to a significant extent the rise of Corbyn within Labour.
    Yes, I think that is probably right.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724

    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.

    If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).

    In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/councillor-living-scotland-quits-one-15843914
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406



    On topic, at least the Tories have an excuse for bending themselves all out of shape. Europe. They are arguing over trying to implement a decision of the voters. The most difficult to implement that we have known. Some consider it was a clear-cut binary choice that allows no options. Question: light switched on? Or light switched off? The voters went with light switched off. However, we have a political class scared of the dark. They want to keep the lights on. The PM has effectively said "How about we install dimmers?" It's a mess, but it has to be addressed. Democracy requires it.

    The problem is that the referendum wasn't a light switch it was a choice of paths - one path had a guide (the EU) and the group of 28 countries would follow the same route.

    The other path had 14 million different paths running of it all resulting in being outside the EU but all with very different end points. The other problem with the none-EU path is that it seems to not have been properly mapped and there is an unavoidable swamp pit full of alligators before we get to the second crosswords that does seem to have 15 different unmapped paths running from it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    IanB2 said:

    Ok, Brexiters - your call:

    REVEALED: Turkey seeks free trade deal with Britain in exchange for freedom of movement

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/763220/Turkey-Theresa-May-free-trade-deal-UK-freedom-movement

    All round top class trolling there..
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.

    Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.
    We should boot out FPTP.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.

    If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).

    In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/councillor-living-scotland-quits-one-15843914
    Your proposed change is an excellent one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.

    If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).

    In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/councillor-living-scotland-quits-one-15843914
    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2019

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.

    Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.
    We should boot out FPTP.
    FPTP does cause some of our problems of misrepresentation so I am in favour of moving towards a partly proportional system.

    Of course, we're Brexiting because of PR.

    It was the crucial change of PR for European elections that led to the growth of UKIP. It provided the money, paid positions and resources for UKIP to swell into a monster.

    But, as the referendum shows, it was more democratic.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    DavidL said:

    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.

    If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).

    In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/councillor-living-scotland-quits-one-15843914
    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.
    No, yours is a very different role to that of a councillor or MP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Indeed Mr L

    if the politicos werent so obsessed this govt would have some economic good news to feed in to the cycle. For the remainers the big problem is the economy just wont stick to the gloom and doom script, for the leavers it should be doing even better since the continued uncertainty is putting off investment decisions.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    Labour councillors in more than a dozen local authorities have resigned to become independents because of anti-semitism and bullying. The news comes after eight Labour MPs defected to a new centrist grouping, the Independent Group (TIG), last week.

    In Brighton and Hove, three independents intend to align formally with TIG as soon as this week. Warren Morgan, the former Labour leader of the council, is leading a plan that would see TIG hold the balance of power ahead of local elections this spring.

    Labour representatives from 10 councils wrote a joint letter to The Sunday Times last night declaring they had defected.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/councillors-quit-labour-intimidation-and-prepare-to-join-tig-v6ln3xs37
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
    That was one of the best scenes.
    But agree, it was patchy, the tone not right, and ultimately felt cartoonish.
    Yes - not best film but the editing was fantastic. Memorable.
    I am not sure what you mean by "editing". I am not a film buff but to me editing is the process of creating a coherent and smooth story line with no obvious discrepancies. To me Vice seemed very episodic and almost incoherent at times. I would have regarded it as very poorly edited in that sense. Do you mean something else?
    I think yours is the classical definition of editing. I believe the editing nominations are chosen by professional editors so it presumably passed that test. But the winner is chosen by all the Academy members, expert and non-expert in editing, and I'm betting on ordinary Academy members remembering some of the memorable breaks in narrative created by the editing, and give it their vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263
    IanB2 said:

    Ok, Brexiters - your call:

    REVEALED: Turkey seeks free trade deal with Britain in exchange for freedom of movement

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/763220/Turkey-Theresa-May-free-trade-deal-UK-freedom-movement

    Look what Mogg hath wrought ?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    DavidL said:


    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.

    The problem is that some demographics and groups are wildly over-represented in Parliament. You can surely see how dangerous that is.

    Lawyers, for example, are vastly over-represented. Computer programmers vastly under-represented -- now many MPs could write even a small python program?

    Luciana Berger representing Liverpool Wavertress --- you're having a larf:

    "Asked by the local newspaper to answer four questions on her adopted city, Ms Berger stumbled, admitting she had never heard of the legendary Liverpool football manager Bill Shankly, nor did she know who sang "Ferry Across the Mersey" (Gerry & the Pacemakers), The actor and Liverpool celebrity Ricky Tomlinson threatened to stand against her after it emerged that during the candidate selection she had stayed at the house of the outgoing Blairite incumbent MP, Jane Kennedy." (The Independent 23 April 2010).

    And we haven't even mentioned her personalised number plate yet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Why should being associated with the area be a pre-requisite?
    Imposing candidates from without breaks the link with local democracy.

    It leads to certain demographics being wildly over-represented in Parliament, which is very bad.

    Part of the problem with Brexit is that Parliament has a substantial Remain majority, yet the Referendum showed that Leave were in the majority. Whether or not recent polls are to be believed, it is still true that Parliament is wildly out-of-kilter with the country, being way too Remainer-y.

    Another problem is solidly working class areas (like Liverpool Wavertree) end up being represented by Luciana from Haberdashers Aske. The under-representation of the working class in Parliament is another significant driver of our problems.

    It is actually extremely important that Parliament is representative, of minorities, of Welsh and Scots, of the working classes, of Northerners and so on. (The ridiculous parachuting of outside candidates into Welsh constituencies still goes on -- let' s see who gets put forward for the Newport West by-election, for instance).

    I strongly support the idea that black and minority ethnic candidates need to be properly represented, especially in constituencies in which they are dominant. It just needs to go much further.

    Boles would have been a good Tory candidate for Hove. He stood twice for Remainer-y Hove and lost. He's a failure -- who could only get into Parliament representing a seat for which he has no emotional connection. He should be booted out. So should Luciana.
    We should boot out FPTP.
    FPTP does cause some of our problems of misrepresentation so I am in favour of moving towards a partly proportional system.

    Of course, we're Brexiting because of PR.

    It was the crucial change of PR for European elections that led to the growth of UKIP. It provided the money, paid positions and resources for UKIP to swell into a monster.

    But, as the referendum shows, it was more democratic.
    You think FPTnP would have denied UKIP a stonking result despite their topping the 2014 election, beating the Tories by nearly 4%, and being the highest polling party in pretty much every council area throughout the South West, Kent and East Sussex, most of East Anglia, Lincs, Cheshire and the Welsh Borders, Humberside, etc?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,263

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    Perhaps he wants to get his bets down first ?
    Or has a couple of documentary features still to watch ?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    DavidL said:


    If I were to uproot the political system, one change I'd make is that anybody standing for a seat in local or national government should have lived in that seat, or a neighbouring one, as their main residence for at least five years before the election (with the obvious issue of seat boundary adjustments taken into account).

    In addition, I'd make it so if someone moved out of that criteria, they were automatically no longer a councillor or MP (health and other issues excepted). This latter clause may stop the following farcical situation:

    https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/councillor-living-scotland-quits-one-15843914
    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.
    No, yours is a very different role to that of a councillor or MP.
    Glad to hear it but I would suggest it is closer than you think. Most of our politician's time is taken up with case work. If you are helping an asylum seeker from Syria who cares where you yourself come from? If you are trying to help someone whose homeless or living with damp, ditto. And for national politics (which, in my view, really should be an MP's focus) the local connection is not relevant at all. What do you think politicians gain from a local connection?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.

    As long as the Scottish bar is prospering!!

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Record employment
    Record levels of economic activity
    Record vacancies
    Record lows in women's unemployment
    A rapidly falling deficit
    Modest and probably under recorded growth
    Very low inflation
    Rising real wages (again almost certainly under-recording total increased earnings by the self employed)
    A rapidly increasing number of house builds.
    A housing market dominated by first time buyers for the first time since 1995.

    It's d to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.
    The bigger problem is that its mostly on credit and driven by consumer spending. Private debt is in excess of 2018 levels.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    Corbyn, so dense light bends round him...

    https://twitter.com/sazmeister88/status/1099438078131879936

    I am no fan of Corbyn but perhaps he understands that the majority of British people voted leave in 2016 and actually believes in carrying out the democratic decision taken. Parties who want to lead the country can’t just listen to their own tribe they are seeking to govern the nation even those who dont agree with them
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    DavidL said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    I thought Vice was a bit patchy. Some bits were very good and the costume and make up was incredible but there were bits that really didn't work at all. Any decent editing would have had the absurd scene where the Chaneys suddenly started conversing in blank verse on the cutting room floor.
    That was one of the best scenes.
    But agree, it was patchy, the tone not right, and ultimately felt cartoonish.
    Yes - not best film but the editing was fantastic. Memorable.
    I am not sure what you mean by "editing". I am not a film buff but to me editing is the process of creating a coherent and smooth story line with no obvious discrepancies. To me Vice seemed very episodic and almost incoherent at times. I would have regarded it as very poorly edited in that sense. Do you mean something else?
    I think yours is the classical definition of editing. I believe the editing nominations are chosen by professional editors so it presumably passed that test. But the winner is chosen by all the Academy members, expert and non-expert in editing, and I'm betting on ordinary Academy members remembering some of the memorable breaks in narrative created by the editing, and give it their vote.
    So this is the "4th wall" type thing? I must say I really like that although it worked much better in The Big Short and in House of Cards. It is surely going to become more standard going forward.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.

    As long as the Scottish bar is prospering!!

    Indeed, that is the important thing. Although health issues meant I personally did not share in the growth. I seem to recall that you had a pretty good year financially yourself?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.

    As long as the Scottish bar is prospering!!

    Indeed, that is the important thing. Although health issues meant I personally did not share in the growth. I seem to recall that you had a pretty good year financially yourself?

    I did. Thankfully, the deal was done when it was. There is - or was - a shedload of PE money that has to be spent and is looking for a home, that is undeniably true.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Some of the problems with deselections are simply due to parties parachuting candidates in.

    Luciana Berger was born in Wembley and went to Haberdashers Aske, then Univ. of Birmingham. She has no connection with Liverpool Wavertree.

    Nick Boles seems to have spent most of life in London, went to Winchester College, then Oxford Univ. He has no connection with Grantham and Stamford.

    These MPs should quite properly be deselected, as they are not at all representative of their constituencies.

    They might be suitable as London MPs.

    London is already grotesquely fat with its self-importance. We don't need endless MPs from London representing Liverpool or East of England.

    The Liberal Democrat view of the world. Local people for local constituencies. The politics of the pothole.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186
    Purists have often blamed others for their defeat, leftwingers blamed the SDP for defeating Foot's Labour and will no doubt blame TIG if they lose again, right-wing Tories blamed Heseltine and Major and Europhile Tories for Thatcher's toppling in 1990 and ultimately enabling Labour's victory in 1997. If Parliament votes for Cooper Letwin next week they can then blame establishment MPs for betraying Brexit
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,873
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:


    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.
    The bigger problem is that its mostly on credit and driven by consumer spending. Private debt is in excess of 2018 levels.
    Did you mean 2008 levels? Our economy is certainly still unbalanced and the pause in investment brought about by political incompetence in dealing with Brexit is hardly going to help that but high employment combined with a ready supply of alternative work does create a scenario where taking on more debt is rational. The consequence of excess consumption is, as Robert has pointed out, a balance of payments deficit. Ours has narrowed in a somewhat erratic fashion over recent years but remains significant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,618

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
    Wise to look around, because I can't see The Favourite replicating its BAFTA success at the Oscars. Glenn Close's performance in The Wife is far better than Olivia Coleman's, for example. I'll be astonished if Rachael Weiss wins best supporting.

    Green Book was enjoyable, but I couldn't elevate it to "brilliant". That said, plenty of the winners tonight wouldn't rate "brilliant" in a rather drab, unremarkable year of film.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    What a terrible commentary on both the Labour and Tory parties that these MPs speak like people who have escaped from an abusive relationship. Many who remain within those parties know it. I have had both Labour and Tory MPs tell me that they don’t disagree with a word that the defectors have said.

    My hunch is that an inclusive approach will look attractive to voters repulsed by how the old two have been captured by narrow sects.

    The fate of the breakaways will not be entirely – not even mainly – in their own hands. The traction they achieve with the voters and whether more MPs join them will depend greatly on the behaviour of the parties they have departed. Will the Tories and Labour examine what is it about them that so disgusted these MPs that they felt they had no choice but to leave? Or will the ugly sisters decide that the answer is to carry on as they are, only more so?

    For the breakaways pose a challenge to those Labour and Tory MPs who remain trapped within parties that they can no longer stand and who are agonising about whether to stay or to go. They can tell themselves that splitters never prosper, but they can also feel the powerful sense of liberation radiated by those who have chosen to snap their chains and try something new.



    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/24/independents-offer-hope-to-those-who-despair-of-our-broken-politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,186
    Chuka Umunna on Sky News this morning suggests he will stand again in Streatham which had the highest Remain vote in the country in 2016, though mixed support for him in a Sky News Voxpop
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    kle4 said:

    Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nine-more-mps-set-quit-14043694

    The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
    Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.
    The bigger problem is that its mostly on credit and driven by consumer spending. Private debt is in excess of 2018 levels.
    The fact that food banks are prospering because of gaps in the benefit system is a fair point. It should be remembered though that one cannot just walk into one and ask for a packet of tea-bags; there has to be some evidence of need, such as authorisation from a CAB, or other accredited debt advisor, GP (sometimes) or other appropriate person.
    Mr B2's point about credit is germane too; there seems to be an increasing number of adverts from loan companies, and although some of the worst excess have been curbed, they still provide a very expensive way of obtaining credit.

    Anecdote alert, but I was recently 'debating' on a Facebook site devoted to residents of a strong Leave area, and made some comment about prosperity. I was immediately jumped on by several posters; it was OK for middle-class people like me to talk about prosperity but they weren't seeing it.
    Always dangerous to use one example from one's own experience of course!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,277
    DavidL said:


    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.


    Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.

    image

    Is there another London I don't know about?

    Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Chuka Umunna on Sky News this morning suggests he will stand again in Streatham which had the highest Remain vote in the country in 2016, though mixed support for him in a Sky News Voxpop

    If he is going to stand in Streatham I'd have thought his best tactic would be to go for a by election prior to Brexit and make Europe the issue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    DavidL said:


    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.

    The problem is that some demographics and groups are wildly over-represented in Parliament. You can surely see how dangerous that is.

    Lawyers, for example, are vastly over-represented. Computer programmers vastly under-represented -- now many MPs could write even a small python program?

    Luciana Berger representing Liverpool Wavertress --- you're having a larf:

    "Asked by the local newspaper to answer four questions on her adopted city, Ms Berger stumbled, admitting she had never heard of the legendary Liverpool football manager Bill Shankly, nor did she know who sang "Ferry Across the Mersey" (Gerry & the Pacemakers), The actor and Liverpool celebrity Ricky Tomlinson threatened to stand against her after it emerged that during the candidate selection she had stayed at the house of the outgoing Blairite incumbent MP, Jane Kennedy." (The Independent 23 April 2010).

    And we haven't even mentioned her personalised number plate yet.
    While I have a lot of sympathy for MPs needing a local connection, many do acquire one in post. Nicky Morgan, Liz Kendall, Jon Ashworth are all drop ins who have made excellent constituency MPs, as indeed NickP did in Broxtowe.

    I have plenty of contempt though for those like Tredinnick, who cannot be arsed to even visit his constituency.

    I also note that Winston Churchill was a drop in candidate in several unrelated seats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Rather hopeful prediction of the Tiggers eclipsing the SNP ...by counting the LDs as part of it, and assuming 9 lab and 4 con defections without any names given.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nine-more-mps-set-quit-14043694

    The main benefit for TIG is getting "automatic" invitations from broadcasters; it is that loss which is killing the LibDems. Whether this sleight of hand will fool anyone is unlikely, but the two questions at PMQs, as is the right of the SNP as the third largest party, are less important.
    Broadcasters and Westminster already discriminate against and ignore SNP.
    The Leader of the SNP, as that of the third party in Parliament, always gets an early call from the Speaker.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    On topic, at least the Tories have an excuse for bending themselves all out of shape. Europe. They are arguing over trying to implement a decision of the voters. The most difficult to implement that we have known. Some consider it was a clear-cut binary choice that allows no options. Question: light switched on? Or light switched off? The voters went with light switched off. However, we have a political class scared of the dark. They want to keep the lights on. The PM has effectively said "How about we install dimmers?" It's a mess, but it has to be addressed. Democracy requires it.

    Except that's not quite what happened.

    The Leave campaign said "Do you want to stop paying your electricity bill, but still be able to see at night?"

    The people voted for free electricity, the Government are struggling to deliver it, and the people will be miffed when it doesn't happen.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Hmm... There is no question that our political class are dysfunctional and have been driven truly mad by the B word but outside the world of politics we have:

    SNIP

    It's almost as if having our political class obsessed with something of peripheral importance to the real world and less inclined to interfere in ordinary life is proving beneficial. Despite all the screams of doom and earnest forecasts of imminent disaster things are actually going rather well, in fact very well. So I think @Cyclefree's piece is overstated.

    Thankfully few things in the UK are as bad as our politics. We seem to have collected our most incompetent and inept individuals and put them in a rather curious home in Westminster where they can do less damage than they might if allowed out into the community at large. We get a distorted view on this site because we bother listening to their utterings. Most sensible people tuned them out a long time ago.

    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising? House prices in some areas seem to be falling, which is worrying for first-time who've not long bought. I'd also query (from observation, so could well be wrong) that there is an under-recorded rise in real wages.
    Food banks are prospering because they are available and there are gaps in our benefit system, particularly for those on UC who struggle to get money fast enough and have no cushion to fall back on. Also asylum seekers and illegal immigrants in large numbers are not allowed to work and have limited rights to benefits. And, frankly, who doesn't want free food?

    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.

    The tax returns in January showed that self employed earnings are rising more rapidly than PAYE earnings. An example I can give is that earnings at the Scottish bar (roughly 450 self employed) rose by nearly 10% last year. The anecdotal evidence of spending in York last night is another example.
    David, How very Tory, you have to be really desperate to be going to a foodbank, there are no queues of well to do people there getting some basic food items. Foodbanks are prospering due to Tory policies.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Article of the year, Cyclefree.

    I'm still hoping for an Oscar preview from Roger but he is leaving it late!
    I saw Green Book yesterday. Brilliant. My tip for best film. My other bet is on Vice for best editing - another brilliant film.
    Thanks. I'd already backed Green Book against the odds-on favourite Roma for Best Picture. There does seem to have been money for Green Book this morning, as it has been cut in some places from 11/4 to 9/4. Is it the Racing Post tip, perhaps, or smart money?
    Perhaps mine :). I'm on at 3.95 on Betfair.
    Green Book is lovely, but perhaps a bit slight for an Oscar. Not very much happens, except that the protagonists learn to like each other. You leave the movie feeling happier about the world and enhanced as an individual, and that's great. But it's hard to imagine it being watched in 10 years' time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    MattW said:

    DavidL said:


    House prices seem pretty static other than in the frothy London end of the market which is dominated by foreign cash. This is a good thing as affordability is increasing, hence the growth of first time buyers.


    Whilst I agree with you that @Cyclefree has overegged the rhetorical pudding a little in the lead, can you point me to this frothy London market? AFAICS it is experiencing a useful correction.

    image

    Is there another London I don't know about?

    Most people I know in London are whinging their heads off about loss of perceived wealth.
    Yet that is a graph of changes, and the line only lately just dips slightly below the 0% level. Hardly a correction. Yet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,497
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:


    I think that is a terrible idea based on a highly distorted view of the importance of a local connection. Should I only take cases from Dundee and turn down cases in Glasgow because I don't live there? If people don't like a politician from elsewhere standing they don't have to vote for them. The evidence is that the odd by election aside they are really not that bothered.

    The problem is that some demographics and groups are wildly over-represented in Parliament. You can surely see how dangerous that is.

    Lawyers, for example, are vastly over-represented. Computer programmers vastly under-represented -- now many MPs could write even a small python program?

    Luciana Berger representing Liverpool Wavertress --- you're having a larf:

    "Asked by the local newspaper to answer four questions on her adopted city, Ms Berger stumbled, admitting she had never heard of the legendary Liverpool football manager Bill Shankly, nor did she know who sang "Ferry Across the Mersey" (Gerry & the Pacemakers), The actor and Liverpool celebrity Ricky Tomlinson threatened to stand against her after it emerged that during the candidate selection she had stayed at the house of the outgoing Blairite incumbent MP, Jane Kennedy." (The Independent 23 April 2010).

    And we haven't even mentioned her personalised number plate yet.
    While I have a lot of sympathy for MPs needing a local connection, many do acquire one in post. Nicky Morgan, Liz Kendall, Jon Ashworth are all drop ins who have made excellent constituency MPs, as indeed NickP did in Broxtowe.

    I have plenty of contempt though for those like Tredinnick, who cannot be arsed to even visit his constituency.

    I also note that Winston Churchill was a drop in candidate in several unrelated seats.
    I was once agent for a candidate at a GE for a candidate who worked for the EU, and consequently lived in Brussels.
    The party got some stick in the local press, and I got some criticism in person.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,277
    edited February 2019
    >@Old King Cole
    Those are some fair points, but, and it's quite a big but, too a lot of people it doesn't feel like that. For example, why are food banks 'prospering'..... obviously need inverted commas for that....... if unemployment is down and wages are rising?
    It always surprises me that the existence of foodbanks in the UK is perceived as some kind of proof of national disgrace, whilst their far more widespread existence in say Germany is not mentioned at all.

    The trust says they fed 913,138 people nationwide in the year 2013-14, more than a third of which were children.

    In an interview with BBC One's Sunday Politics, Mr Duncan Smith said 1.5 million people a week used food banks in Germany.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30470120

    Who knows, perhaps if we get further into the EU there will be *more* food banks?

    * If that stat has been debunked, I would like to see it.
This discussion has been closed.