41% say they could vote for a new centre ground party. LDs are most likely to vote for such a party, 66% say they would likely do so, 43% of Labour voters would do so and 37% of Tory voters
The tables seem to say that Lab and Con voters are equally potentially tempted (Lab 38 No, 36 Yes; Con 37 No, 35 Yes). The poll gives the Tories a current 3-point lead (37-34), with Independents not separately polled.
Slightly more Labour than Tory voters would consider a new centrist party but voters from both parties are willing to consider a move
All utterly meaningless and unicorn stuff. The leaders of the three main party’s could change. Brexit could get beyond log jam. In an electoral cycle you can be ten points ahead mid term, such as milliband, and still lose. Is that factored in to any of this?
Tiggers are the non of the above option. They are whatever you want them to be option.
There’s a world of difference between tiggers in opinion polls and being able to fight an election.
The harder the Brexit and the more the Corbynistas deepen their control over Labour, the better the Tiggers will do, especially if No Deal. By contrast if we get soft Brexit or Brexit is revoked it is Farage's new Brexit Party who could advance rather than the Tiggers
So Tories to gain south Ilford then?
I was amazed (and weirdly, unjustifiably proud) to note that, having gone to bed last night with it in full flow, the debate over Ilford’s demographics was still going the following morning.
So much they missed as well.
last census shows 1500 Jedi and 17 Tusken Raiders...
But only two Sith. Because...
Because they moved back to East Ham?
Sorry, it's an in-joke. When the Jedi census phenomenon manifested, criticism was made of people claiming "Jedi" as their religion. One of the responses was that it didn't matter about the Jedi, but there would be no point in allowing "Sith" as an option, because (in the fictional Star Wars universe) there are never more than two, the master and the apprentice.
The Conservatives have at least shown Corbyn and friend (most voters won't know him) wearing poppies!
That was the giveaway that it was fake, probably momentum behind it. A photograph both men would use in their own publicity. They look like completely trustworthy elder statesman of the political establishment.
It’s not the benchmark photo with where they were ten years ago, but just four years ago when Cameron jabbed for goodness sake get a tie will you
It is not fake (Twitter's blue tick verifies the account) but the Conservatives have linked to the Standard, whose photo it is.
[This update was added on 20 February 2019: In wake of publication of this article, the home office challenged the accuracy of several assertions in the piece. Some amendments were made, and are explained in the footnote below; the following statement from a home office spokesperson is also being inserted here: “The basis of this article is fundamentally wrong. We have made clear that EU citizens will not be refused status under the EU Settlement Scheme because, for example, they are economically inactive. The application only has three key steps – to prove your identity, to prove that you are living here, and to declare any criminal convictions.” Information on funding for help to apply has been included in the footnote.]
"Senior figures in Bethnal Green’s Muslim community have told The Times that they support the home secretary’s decision to strip Shamima Begum, the Isis bride, of her citizenship."
[This update was added on 20 February 2019: In wake of publication of this article, the home office challenged the accuracy of several assertions in the piece. Some amendments were made, and are explained in the footnote below; the following statement from a home office spokesperson is also being inserted here: “The basis of this article is fundamentally wrong. We have made clear that EU citizens will not be refused status under the EU Settlement Scheme because, for example, they are economically inactive. The application only has three key steps – to prove your identity, to prove that you are living here, and to declare any criminal convictions.” Information on funding for help to apply has been included in the footnote.]
Corrections and clarifications! Wonder how many of the 16k will share the correction.
When will the people who keep banging on about immigration being a good thing realise that it is a ponzi scheme. The people at the top ( elderly etc ) benefit but sooner or later the incomers get old then we need more coming in at the bottom. There is a limit to this we can't keep stealing the youth of other countries eventually there wont be enough.
The Tories need to avoid a GE as long as possible, because every single time Jezza is on TV is another few hundred votes switching from away from the anointed one.
Russian trolls -- who needs 'em? Elon Musk's AI group worries about artificially intelligent bots creating malicious political content on social media.
When prompted with topics that are highly represented in the data (Brexit, Miley Cyrus, Lord of the Rings, and so on), it seems to be capable of generating reasonable samples about 50% of the time.
...
We can also imagine the application of these models for malicious purposes, including the following (or other applications we can’t yet anticipate):
- Generate misleading news articles - Impersonate others online - Automate the production of abusive or faked content to post on social media - Automate the production of spam/phishing content These findings, combined with earlier results on synthetic imagery, audio, and video, imply that technologies are reducing the cost of generating fake content and waging disinformation campaigns. The public at large will need to become more skeptical of text they find online, just as the ”deep fakes" phenomenon calls for more skepticism about images.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
I wish, totally wish, that you were right here. But I don't think you are.
I'm a social democrat. I veer LibDem as the closest inheritors to the SDp. I regularly argue the toss on /r/libdem, advancing the social democrat point of view against "classical liberals". Charles Kennedy was the party leader with whom I most agreed.
But TIG isn't yet the new dawn. Two reasons. First is the obvious one: we're four days in and it's way too early to conclude that a couple of random polls suggest that support for "a new centre party" will translate into people voting for Umunna, Soubry, Shuker and Leslie, only two of whom anyone has ever heard of.
The second reason is more troublesome. I don't think TIG is in step with the times. Their instincts are Blairite-right: expand Heathrow, intervene in far-flung conflicts, encourage private sector involvement in schools and the NHS. That isn't where people are now. Corbyn, like it or not, has shifted the Overton window. TIG is advancing the solutions of 10 years ago.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
That is rather an insightful post. I agree with most of it - though would suggest that TIG are pushing the solutions of 20 years ago.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
I wish, totally wish, that you were right here. But I don't think you are.
I'm a social democrat. I veer LibDem as the closest inheritors to the SDp. I regularly argue the toss on /r/libdem, advancing the social democrat point of view against "classical liberals". Charles Kennedy was the party leader with whom I most agreed.
But TIG isn't yet the new dawn. Two reasons. First is the obvious one: we're four days in and it's way too early to conclude that a couple of random polls suggest that support for "a new centre party" will translate into people voting for Umunna, Soubry, Shuker and Leslie, only two of whom anyone has ever heard of.
The second reason is more troublesome. I don't think TIG is in step with the times. Their instincts are Blairite-right: expand Heathrow, intervene in far-flung conflicts, encourage private sector involvement in schools and the NHS. That isn't where people are now. Corbyn, like it or not, has shifted the Overton window. TIG is advancing the solutions of 10 years ago.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
That is rather an insightful post. I agree with most of it - though would suggest that TIG are pushing the solutions of 20 years ago.
Yep. They appear very New Labour first term (which started nearly 22 years ago.....!)
Long Ago and Far Away.......
New Labour was popular because 'Old Labour' (18 years before) was still vivid in the public memory, discuss.
'Old Labour' is unlikely to be remembered by many younger than their mid-50s now - probably accounting for the acutely polarised response to Magic Grandad.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
The reason is as someone said on the last thread, the Labour Party was meant to be "a moral crusade or nothing". Now it is very immoral to anyone who abhors antisemitism etc.
In the 80s the Labour Party believed in something, whether under Foot or Kinnock. Now the attitude of many in Labour seems to be nothing other than "yeah but we're not the Tories".
You know who else is not the Tories? TIG. Lib Dems. Plaid Cyrmu. The SNP.
"We're not the Tories" is a meaningless and rotten core to build an edifice upon. For a long time in Scotland Labour dominated with that because the Tories were hated but when a viable alternative came the whole party collapsed.
Labour needs to have something to be other than not the Tories. And soon.
I think it's possible Labour will now collapse, but they could pull the Conservatives down with them.
The death of Labour is being greatly exaggerated. The Tiggers are not even a party yet and it’s far from clear that they agree on anything except Brexit.
I agree but it may end up the communist party of UK in all but name
I don’t think that Corbyn can survive much longer.
I don't really understand this sentiment, who is going to force him out?
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
I wish, totally wish, that you were right here. But I don't think you are.
I'm a social democrat. I veer LibDem as the closest inheritors to the SDp. I regularly argue the toss on /r/libdem, advancing the social democrat point of view against "classical liberals". Charles Kennedy was the party leader with whom I most agreed.
But TIG isn't yet the new dawn. Two reasons. First is the obvious one: we're four days in and it's way too early to conclude that a couple of random polls suggest that support for "a new centre party" will translate into people voting for Umunna, Soubry, Shuker and Leslie, only two of whom anyone has ever heard of.
The second reason is more troublesome. I don't think TIG is in step with the times. Their instincts are Blairite-right: expand Heathrow, intervene in far-flung conflicts, encourage private sector involvement in schools and the NHS. That isn't where people are now. Corbyn, like it or not, has shifted the Overton window. TIG is advancing the solutions of 10 years ago.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
That is rather an insightful post. I agree with most of it - though would suggest that TIG are pushing the solutions of 20 years ago.
Yep. They appear very New Labour first term (which started nearly 22 years ago.....!)
Long Ago and Far Away.......
New Labour was popular because 'Old Labour' (18 years before) was still vivid in the public memory, discuss.
'Old Labour' is unlikely to be remembered by many younger than their mid-50s now - probably accounting for the acutely polarised response to Magic Grandad.
Those were the days. MI5 plots against the Prime Minister. Hints of military coups. Retired generals raising private armies. And the Liberal leader was certainly making more headlines than Vince Cable, for all the wrong reasons!
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
The reason is as someone said on the last thread, the Labour Party was meant to be "a moral crusade or nothing". Now it is very immoral to anyone who abhors antisemitism etc.
In the 80s the Labour Party believed in something, whether under Foot or Kinnock. Now the attitude of many in Labour seems to be nothing other than "yeah but we're not the Tories".
You know who else is not the Tories? TIG. Lib Dems. Plaid Cyrmu. The SNP.
"We're not the Tories" is a meaningless and rotten core to build an edifice upon. For a long time in Scotland Labour dominated with that because the Tories were hated but when a viable alternative came the whole party collapsed.
Labour needs to have something to be other than not the Tories. And soon.
I think it's possible Labour will now collapse, but they could pull the Conservatives down with them.
The death of Labour is being greatly exaggerated. The Tiggers are not even a party yet and it’s far from clear that they agree on anything except Brexit.
I agree but it may end up the communist party of UK in all but name
I don’t think that Corbyn can survive much longer.
I don't really understand this sentiment, who is going to force him out?
Indeed. His enemies leaving Labour leaves him more secure, but then his enemies are only leaving as he is secure.
He will go when he wants to or after losing the next election.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
I wish, totally wish, that you were right here. But I don't think you are.
I'm a social democrat. I veer LibDem as the closest inheritors to the SDp. I regularly argue the toss on /r/libdem, advancing the social democrat point of view against "classical liberals". Charles Kennedy was the party leader with whom I most agreed.
But TIG isn't yet the new dawn. Two reasons. First is the obvious one: we're four days in and it's way too early to conclude that a couple of random polls suggest that support for "a new centre party" will translate into people voting for Umunna, Soubry, Shuker and Leslie, only two of whom anyone has ever heard of.
The second reason is more troublesome. I don't think TIG is in step with the times. Their instincts are Blairite-right: expand Heathrow, intervene in far-flung conflicts, encourage private sector involvement in schools and the NHS. That isn't where people are now. Corbyn, like it or not, has shifted the Overton window. TIG is advancing the solutions of 10 years ago.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
That is rather an insightful post. I agree with most of it - though would suggest that TIG are pushing the solutions of 20 years ago.
I agree he raises some important issues. The only caveat is that while Brexit is on the agenda there is clearly a space for a genuine small-c conservative party that offers voters a way not to vote Labour without turning the world upsidedown. And hopefully a reasonable degree of sense and competence along with it. Which used to be core to the appeal of the Tories before they got carried away with leaving the EU,
When will the people who keep banging on about immigration being a good thing realise that it is a ponzi scheme. The people at the top ( elderly etc ) benefit but sooner or later the incomers get old then we need more coming in at the bottom. There is a limit to this we can't keep stealing the youth of other countries eventually there wont be enough.
The striking feature of both breakaway press conferences was hearing politicians saying what they actually think, often with great force, rather than parroting a party line or weighing each word for its internal positioning. It’s this that explains the smiling relief on the faces of those who have moved.
Voters will pick up on that because it speaks to something true. Even if their remedy is uncertain, the Independents’ diagnosis is hard to dispute. Both main parties are bent on implementing, or enabling, a policy that will be disastrous for this country. One party is in thrall to xenophobes and nativists; the other has shown no sign that it understands, let alone can deal with, the particular brand of anti-Jewish racism that flourishes, and is flourishing, on the left.
Many have spent months lamenting this state of affairs. Now a small group of people have decided they can abide this paralysis no longer, that they have to act. You can dispute the wisdom of their action, you can bet that it won’t work. But in a room that had grown stale and fetid, their refusal to do nothing is a blast of fresh air.
After watching the cricket last night my wife and I decided that the crucial moment ws when Stokes decided to review the umpires 'out' decision when he clearly was.
I suspect the fate of the TIGgers is actually that of Mark Reckless & Douglas Carswell.
Reckless & Carswell want to be taken back into the Tory fold.
The ex-Labour TIGgers want their old Labour party back. They want to return.
Corby perhaps not, but a successor leader may well be more receptive a year or two down the line.
I suspect some of the Labour TIGgers may well still fight the next GE under Labour colours.
Labour, especially in its current form, is rather less forgiving than that.
I struggle to see anyone other than potentially Lucianna being accepted back into the party, more to do with her reasons for leaving but she stands out among the Labour leavers.
Chuka is a smooth media operator but aside from that I don't think much of him, the rest are no real loss.
When will the people who keep banging on about immigration being a good thing realise that it is a ponzi scheme. The people at the top ( elderly etc ) benefit but sooner or later the incomers get old then we need more coming in at the bottom. There is a limit to this we can't keep stealing the youth of other countries eventually there wont be enough.
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
"Senior figures in Bethnal Green’s Muslim community have told The Times that they support the home secretary’s decision to strip Shamima Begum, the Isis bride, of her citizenship."
Can I thank whoever it was who directed us yesterday to Parliament TV and the House of Lords committee taking evidence from Sir Ivan Rogers. (See: Parliament TV, Wednesday 20 February 2019 Meeting started at 3.59pm, ended 5.54pm)
Admittedly it was a long listen but it was instructive and informative if, in some parts, depressing and occasionally very depressing.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
Correct me where I’m wrong, mcdons ref is after brexit and on Labours solution?
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
Not quite that simple, it might take two and there is always the option that next leader may take the same journey Kinnock did. He was elected as a left wing leader.
The striking feature of both breakaway press conferences was hearing politicians saying what they actually think, often with great force
Lets see how that fares when they turn to their opinion of voters who voted for Brexit....
Ian Austin is strongly in favour of Brexit.
The irony is I could see Ian Austin holding Dudley North as an independent, although if he did it would likely be a three-way marginal.
Agreed Ydoethur, although right now I wouldn't put my hard-earned on anybody holding anything.
After this week I’d put a fair bit on Jeremy Corbyn never being Prime Minister. The TIGs in England, the SNP in Scotland and his own deep unpopularity make it a triple whammy that it’s hard to see past.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
But they need to kill the party off completely, or at least push it to the margins. The Labour Party remans the principal obstacle to decent non-Conservative government in this country,
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
Without deselections the Corbyn project is done for. And when the recent rule changes kick in they’ll begin. But it is true that this week’s events have made them less likely.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
Totally agree on Charles Kennedy. For me one of the tragedies of the last 20 years was that he could not conquer his demons. As I have frequently pointed out to my former fellow Labour Party supporters Kennedy’s LibDems opposed the Iraq War without feeling the necessity to share platforms with Hamas in doing so. Desperation and the hope that a Kennedy could emerge once again led me to join the LDs in September. They ask you who you want as the image on your membership card and I asked for Charles Kennedy. They sent me fracking Nick Clegg instead. Not a great start.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
Without deselections the Corbyn project is done for. And when the recent rule changes kick in they’ll begin. But it is true that this week’s events have made them less likely.
Which is more important to Labour? Socialist purity or dealing with the mess that is, and will continue to be, Brexit?
I suspect the fate of the TIGgers is actually that of Mark Reckless & Douglas Carswell.
Reckless & Carswell want to be taken back into the Tory fold.
The ex-Labour TIGgers want their old Labour party back. They want to return.
Corby perhaps not, but a successor leader may well be more receptive a year or two down the line.
I suspect some of the Labour TIGgers may well still fight the next GE under Labour colours.
Labour, especially in its current form, is rather less forgiving than that.
I said "... a successor leader ..."
I have to say, TIG seems to have tipped you over the edge.
From a being a rather over-excitable LibDem, you now seem to have visions of Tiggers jumping on the bed, pulling off the bedroom door and taking Bootle, Blaenau Gwent and Liverpool Wavertree.
The more I think about, the more I conclude that TIG will never be a political party. It has not been set up to be one, and there is a reason for that.
The old TIGger MPs will retire. The younger TIGgers are banking on the fact that they will be let back into Labour in due course. Who knows -- even Degsy got back in, after all.
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
The main one I can think of who is actually under threat in their constituency is Kate Hoey.
She tends to be one who when you talk about deselection most parts of the Labour party agree, even heard Paul Mason pushing the case there should be some method for deselection using her as a case when talking with Jess Phillips and the only reaction was a laugh and a comment about her being a bit different. So that isn't one that would make waves.
But we have actually got a few potential Conservative deselections going on, think Nick Boles is under heavy threat and maybe a couple of others?
Edit: Not sure there are many most on the left would actually push against now, Jess Phillips still has plenty of enemies as an example from how she was before GE'17 but she has won people around since then (like me)
The striking feature of both breakaway press conferences was hearing politicians saying what they actually think, often with great force
Lets see how that fares when they turn to their opinion of voters who voted for Brexit....
Ian Austin is strongly in favour of Brexit.
The irony is I could see Ian Austin holding Dudley North as an independent, although if he did it would likely be a three-way marginal.
Agreed Ydoethur, although right now I wouldn't put my hard-earned on anybody holding anything.
After this week I’d put a fair bit on Jeremy Corbyn never being Prime Minister. The TIGs in England, the SNP in Scotland and his own deep unpopularity make it a triple whammy that it’s hard to see past.
As next PM after May he's still a screaming lay at 10. Especially as May appears to be working her three months notice.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
Correct me where I’m wrong, mcdons ref is after brexit and on Labours solution?
It’s just sneaky, deceitful, rubbish.
I agree. The interesting thing is that McDonnell and Corbyn have both felt the need to flag a referendum this week. The Falconer appointment does look to be potentially meaningful, though. We’ll have to wait to see his full remit.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
Totally agree on Charles Kennedy. For me one of the tragedies of the last 20 years was that he could not conquer his demons. As I have frequently pointed out to my former fellow Labour Party supporters Kennedy’s LibDems opposed the Iraq War without feeling the necessity to share platforms with Hamas in doing so. Desperation and the hope that a Kennedy could emerge once again led me to join the LDs in September. They ask you who you want as the image on your membership card and I asked for Charles Kennedy. They sent me fracking Nick Clegg instead. Not a great start.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
Labour has always been an alliance of social democrats, methodists and democratic socialists. That’s why the far left always hated it. Now that the far left has been let in and has taken control there is no room for the social democratic or methodist elements. Some will leave, as the TIGs have done, others will be deselected. Some will hold out because their CLPs have not been infiltrated. The future will be determined by what happens when Corbyn steps down some time after Labour loses the next general election. At that point we’ll find out how much of his support was ideological and how much was personal. If someone from the softer left takes over, Labour will probably stay together; if the far left consolidates its hold, then the game will be up.
The current tally of deselection stands at zero.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
Without deselections the Corbyn project is done for. And when the recent rule changes kick in they’ll begin. But it is true that this week’s events have made them less likely.
Which is more important to Labour? Socialist purity or dealing with the mess that is, and will continue to be, Brexit?
You know the answer to that, your Venerable Cheerful Majesty.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
Correct me where I’m wrong, mcdons ref is after brexit and on Labours solution?
It’s just sneaky, deceitful, rubbish.
I agree. The interesting thing is that McDonnell and Corbyn have both felt the need to flag a referendum this week. The Falconer appointment does look to be potentially meaningful, though. We’ll have to wait to see his full remit.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
But they need to kill the party off completely, or at least push it to the margins. The Labour Party remans the principal obstacle to decent non-Conservative government in this country,
Corbyn's Labour Party remains the principal obstacle to decent non-Conservative government in this country. And this week has seen it digging significantly deeper bunkers.
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
Correct me where I’m wrong, mcdons ref is after brexit and on Labours solution?
It’s just sneaky, deceitful, rubbish.
I agree. The interesting thing is that McDonnell and Corbyn have both felt the need to flag a referendum this week. The Falconer appointment does look to be potentially meaningful, though. We’ll have to wait to see his full remit.
It does expose Shami's shame, as well.
Perhaps Shami will resign. "This is not the Labour Party that I white-washed joined."
I suspect the fate of the TIGgers is actually that of Mark Reckless & Douglas Carswell.
Reckless & Carswell want to be taken back into the Tory fold.
The ex-Labour TIGgers want their old Labour party back. They want to return.
Corby perhaps not, but a successor leader may well be more receptive a year or two down the line.
I suspect some of the Labour TIGgers may well still fight the next GE under Labour colours.
Labour, especially in its current form, is rather less forgiving than that.
I said "... a successor leader ..."
I have to say, TIG seems to have tipped you over the edge.
From a being a rather over-excitable LibDem, you now seem to have visions of Tiggers jumping on the bed, pulling off the bedroom door and taking Bootle, Blaenau Gwent and Liverpool Wavertree.
The more I think about, the more I conclude that TIG will never be a political party. It has not been set up to be one, and there is a reason for that.
The old TIGger MPs will retire. The younger TIGgers are banking on the fact that they will be let back into Labour in due course. Who knows -- even Degsy got back in, after all.
Lol.
But he didn't, even aged 71.
TIG has already said it aims to become a party or movement, and contest elections. It took the SDP months to get to that stage.
Let's see how it goes. It has however been widely argued on here that our politics is broken and needs shaking up. I don't see a better chance coming along for a very long time.
Can I thank whoever it was who directed us yesterday to Parliament TV and the House of Lords committee taking evidence from Sir Ivan Rogers. (See: Parliament TV, Wednesday 20 February 2019 Meeting started at 3.59pm, ended 5.54pm)
Admittedly it was a long listen but it was instructive and informative if, in some parts, depressing and occasionally very depressing.
He has written some of it up in the Times
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1099203325755617280 It is hardly surprising that there is still no united government or opposition stance on the best option, and no Commons majority in favour of anything. All the options look most unappealing, whether on political, economic or democratic grounds. In an echo of the referendum campaign, much the easiest option to demolish is the deal on the table: all sides can readily identify what they deplore about it and they do not have to demonstrate that they could negotiate a better option.
The approach taken by No 10 — “it’s my way or the abyss”, coupled with running down the clock — has infuriated all equally, as well as understandably incensing much of the private sector. It has been soothingly assured by government since Christmas 2017 that the no-deal abyss was ruled out, and that a status quo transition until the end of 2020 was “guaranteed”, only to find that all such assurances were given with forked tongue. Business still does not know whether the preferential terms on which it conducts two thirds of all the UK’s global trade will be in place five weeks hence. I can think of no parallel for this in the postwar annals of developed countries.
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Corbyn. Car crash interview.
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Labour. Car crash interview.
I am curious to see Corbyn and co quite so upset about losing people that are ‘no real loss’.
The answer is the same as when boris, Davis walked out the tent after Chequers. OGH often explained in headers the importance of losing the votes of people who trust them, such as the log jam it’s ended up in.
Similar to how US presidential picks often look to balance the ticket.
A lot of the vote corbyn and co got in 2017, and opinion poll ratings since, has been the balance in the ticket.
Corbyn and co aren’t so dumb not to know this, but they are so dumb to have taken it so much for granted. Since 2017 and especially straight after, less hubris and triumphalism and more reaching out across the ticket to imbed their grip, is what they should have done.
That’s how politics at the top there actually works, an iron grip through compromise. Particularly in democracy. Take Bismarck as the perfect example. We know Bismarck through decades of control, embedding a revolution, a grip of iron, but it was through compromise the power was achieved, particularly adoption of the economics of the Austrian school.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
It feels like it should be 100/1 shot, but I'd really like to see odds and analysis for a scenario where 150 Labour MPs and 130 Tories jump ship to form some sort of national government, say with Philip Hammond as PM, VoNC May out as PM with the rest and form a temporary minority Gov with SNP, TIGer acquiescence that has enough votes to unilaterally revoke Brexit or force a referendum, leading to Remain, followed by a GE within months, which would be entirely unpredictable and contested by stump Tory, hardcore Labour, a new loose centrist coalition, the SNP, some TIGers and a very raw and exhausted electorate.
I can't be arsed doing the analysis - because, rugby - but one of our venerated thread writers like David Herdson or Alastair Meeks must have considered it.
What a surprise that the PB Tories (especially the extreme 'centrists') are frothing that once again the minor display of self-cutting dead wood that makes up the chicken coup mk 2 marks the definitive end of Corbyn - just like the chicken coup mk1 was the end of Corbyn, and the 2017 election was the end of Corbyn.
This wonderful turn of events, media hype over a bunch of warmongering, pro-privatisation, venally corrupt dregs aside, will only make the membership-led real Labour party stronger, just as those other events did.
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Labour. Car crash interview.
"I see no shits...."
I didn't sleep very well last night after I read Nick Palmer saying he's further to the Left than Corbyn or McDonnell.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace i
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
Totally agree on Charles Kennedy. For me one of the tragedies of the last 20 years was that he could not conquer his demons. As I have frequently pointed out to my former fellow Labour Party supporters Kennedy’s LibDems opposed the Iraq War without feeling the necessity to share platforms with Hamas in doing so. Desperation and the hope that a Kennedy could emerge once again led me to join the LDs in September. They ask you who you want as the image on your membership card and I asked for Charles Kennedy. They sent me fracking Nick Clegg instead. Not a great start.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
The difficulty with Layla Moran will be persuading her to stand. From my soundings she would win comfortably.
Mr. Royale, don't think I actually did it, but I was tempted to put a pound or two on Ken Clarke as next PM on that sort of basis (this was pre-Tigger).
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Corbyn. Car crash interview.
Let's take a moment to consider that someone at Labour HQ said, "We need to put a spokesman onto the Today Programme at the end of a very difficult week. Someone who'll be sensitive regarding anti-Semitism. Someone who'll calmly explain the steps being taken. Someone who'll cut a sympathetic figure for listeners. Let's give Chris Williamson a bell."
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
Totally agree on Charles Kennedy. For me one of the tragedies of the last 20 years was that he could not conquer his demons. As I have frequently pointed out to my former fellow Labour Party supporters Kennedy’s LibDems opposed the Iraq War without feeling the necessity to share platforms with Hamas in doing so. Desperation and the hope that a Kennedy could emerge once again led me to join the LDs in September. They ask you who you want as the image on your membership card and I asked for Charles Kennedy. They sent me fracking Nick Clegg instead. Not a great start.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Corbyn. Car crash interview.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace i
Char
Totally agree on Charles Kennedy. For me one of the tragedies of the last 20 years was that he could not conquer his demons. As I have frequently pointed out to my former fellow Labour Party supporters Kennedy’s LibDems opposed the Iraq War without feeling the necessity to share platforms with Hamas in doing so. Desperation and the hope that a Kennedy could emerge once again led me to join the LDs in September. They ask you who you want as the image on your membership card and I asked for Charles Kennedy. They sent me fracking Nick Clegg instead. Not a great start.
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
The difficulty with Layla Moran will be persuading her to stand. From my soundings she would win comfortably.
Judging from her long interview with Iain Dale (available free on the LBC website) she is at last giving it serious consideration. The sooner, the better.
What a surprise that the PB Tories (especially the extreme 'centrists') are frothing that once again the minor display of self-cutting dead wood that makes up the chicken coup mk 2 marks the definitive end of Corbyn - just like the chicken coup mk1 was the end of Corbyn, and the 2017 election was the end of Corbyn.
This wonderful turn of events, media hype over a bunch of warmongering, pro-privatisation, venally corrupt dregs aside, will only make the membership-led real Labour party stronger, just as those other events did.
Who was it that said that PB Tories never learn?
Your trouble is that it's the warmongering, pro-privatisation, venally corrupt dregs - aka the voters - who gave Labour its power.
Admittedly, under Tony Blair. But that's what it takes to get the Red Rose in Downing Street.
The front bench has been more conciliatory and saddened. This appears not to mark a shift in strategy but a divide (ahem, beyond defecting MPs) between the front bench and some backbenchers.
Also, I don't get the argument used by Greening and others. I did mention this yesterday, but saying she'll defect/desert if No Deal isn't taken off the table gives an incentive to Labour, and perhaps those on the opposing wing within the party, to stick to trying to defeat the Government.
If No Deal remains on the table but only a few Conservative MPs vote that way, it would be a weird thing to leave the party on that basis.
If you set a design team the challenge to come up with the most voter-repellent, creepy, deranged-looking politician for a big budget thriller, they'd look at Chris Williamson and throw their efforts in the bin. "Just hire that guy...."
Chris Williamson on Today says he’s never seen any bullying in the Labour Party and says antisemitism is just an excuse for right wing MPs to damage Corbyn. Car crash interview.
Let's take a moment to consider that someone at Labour HQ said, "We need to put a spokesman onto the Today Programme at the end of a very difficult week. Someone who'll be sensitive regarding anti-Semitism. Someone who'll calmly explain the steps being taken. Someone who'll cut a sympathetic figure for listeners. Let's give Chris Williamson a bell."
That decision must be down to someone who is joining the TIGs this week!
The front bench has been more conciliatory and saddened. This appears not to mark a shift in strategy but a divide (ahem, beyond defecting MPs) between the front bench and some backbenchers.
Also, I don't get the argument used by Greening and others. I did mention this yesterday, but saying she'll defect/desert if No Deal isn't taken off the table gives an incentive to Labour, and perhaps those on the opposing wing within the party, to stick to trying to defeat the Government.
If No Deal remains on the table but only a few Conservative MPs vote that way, it would be a weird thing to leave the party on that basis.
The crisis is deeper in Labour but more profound in the Conservatives. It is far easier to see how Labour defectors could be reconciled eventually with the Labour Party than to see how Conservative defectors could again make common cause with the Conservatives. Anti-semitism and lack of opposition to Brexit are features of Labour, but features that could be shed without losing the essence of the modern Labour Party. The core of the Conservatives now is anti-business Leave nativism and those that oppose that will need to find their political home elsewhere. Once gone, they’ll be gone.
If you set a design team the challenge to come up with the most voter-repellent, creepy, deranged-looking politician for a big budget thriller, they'd look at Chris Williamson and throw their efforts in the bin. "Just hire that guy...."
a fair few within the ERG could also do well at the audition
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
The reason is as someone said on the last thread, the Labour Party was meant to be "a moral crusade or nothing". Now it is very immoral to anyone who abhors antisemitism etc.
In the 80s the Labour Party believed in something, whether under Foot or Kinnock. Now the attitude of many in Labour seems to be nothing other than "yeah but we're not the Tories".
You know who else is not the Tories? TIG. Lib Dems. Plaid Cyrmu. The SNP.
"We're not the Tories" is a meaningless and rotten core to build an edifice upon. For a long time in Scotland Labour dominated with that because the Tories were hated but when a viable alternative came the whole party collapsed.
Labour needs to have something to be other than not the Tories. And soon.
There was a really annoying "debate" on Newsnight after Ian Austin.
The token Brexiteer posited that the future of politics was "values". Kirsty Wark that you have to translate those into policies, but that aside, what are the values of Brexit? We hate foreigners?
The token Corbynista agreed that values were important which is why Corbyn is set to win. His values? we hate Jews?
Glad I wasn't the only one to think that. Three Wannabees with nothing to say.
Mr. Meeks, mildly amused you consider the leadership of Labour and its approach to things easily replaced and reconcilable, but Boris' anti-business idiocy the beating heart of the Conservatives.
As an aside, what would you make of Gove as a potential successor to May?
Mr. Meeks, mildly amused you consider the leadership of Labour and its approach to things easily replaced and reconcilable, but Boris' anti-business idiocy the beating heart of the Conservatives.
As an aside, what would you make of Gove as a potential successor to May?
The fact that Michael Gove represents the closest thing to someone acceptable to the Conservative membership that would not cause substantial numbers of Leave-sceptic MPs to decamp tells you everything you need to know about the heart of modern Conservatism.
The front bench has been more conciliatory and saddened. This appears not to mark a shift in strategy but a divide (ahem, beyond defecting MPs) between the front bench and some backbenchers.
Also, I don't get the argument used by Greening and others. I did mention this yesterday, but saying she'll defect/desert if No Deal isn't taken off the table gives an incentive to Labour, and perhaps those on the opposing wing within the party, to stick to trying to defeat the Government.
If No Deal remains on the table but only a few Conservative MPs vote that way, it would be a weird thing to leave the party on that basis.
The crisis is deeper in Labour but more profound in the Conservatives. It is far easier to see how Labour defectors could be reconciled eventually with the Labour Party than to see how Conservative defectors could again make common cause with the Conservatives. Anti-semitism and lack of opposition to Brexit are features of Labour, but features that could be shed without losing the essence of the modern Labour Party. The core of the Conservatives now is anti-business Leave nativism and those that oppose that will need to find their political home elsewhere. Once gone, they’ll be gone.
Yes, it is quite possible to envisage a more centrist Labour Leadership doing a repeat Kinnock, and driving out the rats infesting the Labour grass roots. I fancy Jess Phillips for the job. Indeed it is mostly a matter of time for sanity to return.
The Conservatives problems seem more deeply rooted. After Brexit, where do the Nativists go next? it doesn't look an appealing prospect.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
The reason is as someone said on the last thread, the Labour Party was meant to be "a moral crusade or nothing". Now it is very immoral to anyone who abhors antisemitism etc.
In the 80s the Labour Party believed in something, whether under Foot or Kinnock. Now the attitude of many in Labour seems to be nothing other than "yeah but we're not the Tories".
You know who else is not the Tories? TIG. Lib Dems. Plaid Cyrmu. The SNP.
"We're not the Tories" is a meaningless and rotten core to build an edifice upon. For a long time in Scotland Labour dominated with that because the Tories were hated but when a viable alternative came the whole party collapsed.
Labour needs to have something to be other than not the Tories. And soon.
There was a really annoying "debate" on Newsnight after Ian Austin.
The token Brexiteer posited that the future of politics was "values". Kirsty Wark that you have to translate those into policies, but that aside, what are the values of Brexit? We hate foreigners?
The token Corbynista agreed that values were important which is why Corbyn is set to win. His values? we hate Jews?
Glad I wasn't the only one to think that. Three Wannabees with nothing to say.
I'm beginning to feel like we could be in the final death throes of the Labour Party. That the TIG could do what the SDP couldn't and displace it.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts.
Comments
Reckless & Carswell want to be taken back into the Tory fold.
The ex-Labour TIGgers want their old Labour party back. They want to return.
Corby perhaps not, but a successor leader may well be more receptive a year or two down the line.
I suspect some of the Labour TIGgers may well still fight the next GE under Labour colours.
[This update was added on 20 February 2019: In wake of publication of this article, the home office challenged the accuracy of several assertions in the piece. Some amendments were made, and are explained in the footnote below; the following statement from a home office spokesperson is also being inserted here: “The basis of this article is fundamentally wrong. We have made clear that EU citizens will not be refused status under the EU Settlement Scheme because, for example, they are economically inactive. The application only has three key steps – to prove your identity, to prove that you are living here, and to declare any criminal convictions.” Information on funding for help to apply has been included in the footnote.]
"Senior figures in Bethnal Green’s Muslim community have told The Times that they support the home secretary’s decision to strip Shamima Begum, the Isis bride, of her citizenship."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/punish-her-say-former-neighbours-of-isis-bride-2zl5ngjdt
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trV6WXwg6s4
Waffling on about being elected on same 2017 manifesto.
This guy has been elected repeatedly under Lab manifestos whose text he did agree with one iota.
Kinnock, Blair, Brown. Not a single manifesto did he agree with.
As @sean_T would proably say: fuck, fuck, totally fuck, crap wank.
Sorry, wrong PM movie.
https://unherd.com/2019/02/when-did-victimhood-culture-trump-truth/
This must be one of the worst TV interviews any politician has given... ever. Talk about evasive and lost.
Hopelessly out of his depth.
Total, utter car crash.
No idea of the crap storm that is breaking around him.
I can only think of Bruno Ganzn Downfall.
When prompted with topics that are highly represented in the data (Brexit, Miley Cyrus, Lord of the Rings, and so on), it seems to be capable of generating reasonable samples about 50% of the time.
...
We can also imagine the application of these models for malicious purposes, including the following (or other applications we can’t yet anticipate):
- Generate misleading news articles
- Impersonate others online
- Automate the production of abusive or faked content to post on social media
- Automate the production of spam/phishing content
These findings, combined with earlier results on synthetic imagery, audio, and video, imply that technologies are reducing the cost of generating fake content and waging disinformation campaigns. The public at large will need to become more skeptical of text they find online, just as the ”deep fakes" phenomenon calls for more skepticism about images.
Surely this is worth another dozen this weekend.
Long Ago and Far Away.......
New Labour was popular because 'Old Labour' (18 years before) was still vivid in the public memory, discuss.
'Old Labour' is unlikely to be remembered by many younger than their mid-50s now - probably accounting for the acutely polarised response to Magic Grandad.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1099059548541857792
He will go when he wants to or after losing the next election.
The prospect of Brexit looks unlikely but the debate is far from a done deal.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-goodwin-why-preventing-a-brexit-is-by-no-means-a-done-deal-10418431.html
Voters will pick up on that because it speaks to something true. Even if their remedy is uncertain, the Independents’ diagnosis is hard to dispute. Both main parties are bent on implementing, or enabling, a policy that will be disastrous for this country. One party is in thrall to xenophobes and nativists; the other has shown no sign that it understands, let alone can deal with, the particular brand of anti-Jewish racism that flourishes, and is flourishing, on the left.
Many have spent months lamenting this state of affairs. Now a small group of people have decided they can abide this paralysis no longer, that they have to act. You can dispute the wisdom of their action, you can bet that it won’t work. But in a room that had grown stale and fetid, their refusal to do nothing is a blast of fresh air.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/22/independent-group-political-playbook-failure
Chuka is a smooth media operator but aside from that I don't think much of him, the rest are no real loss.
(See: Parliament TV, Wednesday 20 February 2019 Meeting started at 3.59pm, ended 5.54pm)
Admittedly it was a long listen but it was instructive and informative if, in some parts, depressing and occasionally very depressing.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-moving-towards-peoples-vote-shadow-chancellor-john-mcdonnell-tells-of-party-shift-on-brexit-a4073896.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/22/labour-seeks-to-stem-antisemitism-crisis-after-mp-ian-austin-quits
If the TIGs achieve nothing else than to open more Labour members’ eyes and to pull the party out of the fetid swamp it has sunk into they will have achieved plenty.
It’s just sneaky, deceitful, rubbish.
You can hear McDonnell on Today two years form now. “but we haven’t deselected a single person. It was all just a tigger myth”
I joined the LDs not because I’m a centrist - I hate the phrase - but because I believe in liberal democracy. I agree that the LD party is moribund, without wanting to be ageist, I’m 45 and their leader was in the year ABOVE my Dad at Nunthorpe Grammar School, Dad retired 12 years ago. Nevertheless the Labour Party, which I supported from school, has become the preserve of David Icke-lite conspiracy theorising anti-Semitic cranks, and the Conservative Party overrun by xenophobic nativists. Both are inimical to a functioning liberal democracy and, love it or hate it, those are the values that built our civilisation. So, any port in a storm and all that. I’m hoping that it will reform with the TIGs in a fresh start.
There are several delicate moving parts to liberal democracy and elections are only one of them. What the referendum has done is allow cover to those who want to ride roughshod over the judicial parts, the bits that protect those who do not follow the majority line, in favour of a fetishisation of the democratic parts. We can see this in Javid’s foisting of Bangladeshi nationality on the woman in Syria this week. He’s set himself up for a popular pleasing of the crowd in a bun fight with the judiciary who have no choice but to uphold the law that he may well have flouted. Yes, 8 out of 10 people in the country agree with him, a similar proportion no doubt who felt that Joanna Yeates was murdered by her landlord.
I’m not a centrist. I believe in liberal democracy. That, for most of human history, has been a pretty radical idea. Look around you, it’s a mess at times but we are damn lucky to be here, our values built that. We should own them.
I have to say, TIG seems to have tipped you over the edge.
From a being a rather over-excitable LibDem, you now seem to have visions of Tiggers jumping on the bed, pulling off the bedroom door and taking Bootle, Blaenau Gwent and Liverpool Wavertree.
The more I think about, the more I conclude that TIG will never be a political party. It has not been set up to be one, and there is a reason for that.
The old TIGger MPs will retire. The younger TIGgers are banking on the fact that they will be let back into Labour in due course. Who knows -- even Degsy got back in, after all.
She tends to be one who when you talk about deselection most parts of the Labour party agree, even heard Paul Mason pushing the case there should be some method for deselection using her as a case when talking with Jess Phillips and the only reaction was a laugh and a comment about her being a bit different. So that isn't one that would make waves.
But we have actually got a few potential Conservative deselections going on, think Nick Boles is under heavy threat and maybe a couple of others?
Edit: Not sure there are many most on the left would actually push against now, Jess Phillips still has plenty of enemies as an example from how she was before GE'17 but she has won people around since then (like me)
Gotta go now. Need to prepare for the Rugby.
white-washedjoined."Yeah, right.....
But he didn't, even aged 71.
TIG has already said it aims to become a party or movement, and contest elections. It took the SDP months to get to that stage.
Let's see how it goes. It has however been widely argued on here that our politics is broken and needs shaking up. I don't see a better chance coming along for a very long time.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1099203325755617280
It is hardly surprising that there is still no united government or opposition stance on the best option, and no Commons majority in favour of anything. All the options look most unappealing, whether on political, economic or democratic grounds. In an echo of the referendum campaign, much the easiest option to demolish is the deal on the table: all sides can readily identify what they deplore about it and they do not have to demonstrate that they could negotiate a better option.
The approach taken by No 10 — “it’s my way or the abyss”, coupled with running down the clock — has infuriated all equally, as well as understandably incensing much of the private sector. It has been soothingly assured by government since Christmas 2017 that the no-deal abyss was ruled out, and that a status quo transition until the end of 2020 was “guaranteed”, only to find that all such assurances were given with forked tongue. Business still does not know whether the preferential terms on which it conducts two thirds of all the UK’s global trade will be in place five weeks hence. I can think of no parallel for this in the postwar annals of developed countries.
Similar to how US presidential picks often look to balance the ticket.
A lot of the vote corbyn and co got in 2017, and opinion poll ratings since, has been the balance in the ticket.
Corbyn and co aren’t so dumb not to know this, but they are so dumb to have taken it so much for granted. Since 2017 and especially straight after, less hubris and triumphalism and more reaching out across the ticket to imbed their grip, is what they should have done.
That’s how politics at the top there actually works, an iron grip through compromise. Particularly in democracy. Take Bismarck as the perfect example. We know Bismarck through decades of control, embedding a revolution, a grip of iron, but it was through compromise the power was achieved, particularly adoption of the economics of the Austrian school.
I can't be arsed doing the analysis - because, rugby - but one of our venerated thread writers like David Herdson or Alastair Meeks must have considered it.
This could be the year of the impossible.
This wonderful turn of events, media hype over a bunch of warmongering, pro-privatisation, venally corrupt dregs aside, will only make the membership-led real Labour party stronger, just as those other events did.
Who was it that said that PB Tories never learn?
Chills the blood.
Admittedly, under Tony Blair. But that's what it takes to get the Red Rose in Downing Street.
The front bench has been more conciliatory and saddened. This appears not to mark a shift in strategy but a divide (ahem, beyond defecting MPs) between the front bench and some backbenchers.
Also, I don't get the argument used by Greening and others. I did mention this yesterday, but saying she'll defect/desert if No Deal isn't taken off the table gives an incentive to Labour, and perhaps those on the opposing wing within the party, to stick to trying to defeat the Government.
If No Deal remains on the table but only a few Conservative MPs vote that way, it would be a weird thing to leave the party on that basis.
As an aside, what would you make of Gove as a potential successor to May?
The Conservatives problems seem more deeply rooted. After Brexit, where do the Nativists go next? it doesn't look an appealing prospect.