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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a cabinet revolt the balance could be moving to Article 50 being extended
In exactly five weeks time at 11pm GMT the UK is due to leave the EU following the procedure laid down in Article 50. With time running out and the threat of a no-deal getting closer three cabinet ministers have taken it into their hands to break all notions of cabinet government and write a piece for the Daily Mail.
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https://www.progressive-centre.com/post/progressive-centre-uk--opinium-polling
Am I first?
Actually I don't think that's right. Their objective - indeed, the objective of any sane MP - is to avoid crashing out in chaos. The easiest and least damaging way to achieve that is for MPs to ratify the deal on the table. Extending Article 50 is the first stage of a damage-limitation Plan B, for the case where the ERG and Labour continue to collude to try to push us into No Deal.
The reason is as someone said on the last thread, the Labour Party was meant to be "a moral crusade or nothing". Now it is very immoral to anyone who abhors antisemitism etc.
In the 80s the Labour Party believed in something, whether under Foot or Kinnock. Now the attitude of many in Labour seems to be nothing other than "yeah but we're not the Tories".
You know who else is not the Tories? TIG. Lib Dems. Plaid Cyrmu. The SNP.
"We're not the Tories" is a meaningless and rotten core to build an edifice upon. For a long time in Scotland Labour dominated with that because the Tories were hated but when a viable alternative came the whole party collapsed.
Labour needs to have something to be other than not the Tories. And soon.
The token Brexiteer posited that the future of politics was "values". Kirsty Wark that you have to translate those into policies, but that aside, what are the values of Brexit? We hate foreigners?
The token Corbynista agreed that values were important which is why Corbyn is set to win. His values? we hate Jews?
What we need is a decision to do something positive.
An extension without a decision achieves nothing and just drags uncertainty out.
I think this is the crucial difference between TIG and SDP.
One day you will look back at your vehement advocation of Brexit and regret it.
The sad thing is as this nation loses descent jobs, enterprises and opportunities. The same problems will still plague your mind about immigrants and their role in society as the UK pulls in economic migrants from the rest of the world rather than the EU.
The factories will close and never re-open but that is not a problem to you as your children or grandchildren will not go hungry or get left behind at school because the person they are dependent on has no work. People say if the economy is bad the immigrants will stop coming but this fails to take into consideration demographic changes leaving the population older, the unskilled work that will grow in demand whilst our more educated society have aspirations to do better than the roles on offer and the pull and push factors of higher wages in the UK despite Brexit than say India or Pakistan or Africa.
In a way I honestly think he is more dangerous.
Yes - I mean dangerous.
Remainers want to remain?
Nothing new there then...
I'm a social democrat. I veer LibDem as the closest inheritors to the SDp. I regularly argue the toss on /r/libdem, advancing the social democrat point of view against "classical liberals". Charles Kennedy was the party leader with whom I most agreed.
But TIG isn't yet the new dawn. Two reasons. First is the obvious one: we're four days in and it's way too early to conclude that a couple of random polls suggest that support for "a new centre party" will translate into people voting for Umunna, Soubry, Shuker and Leslie, only two of whom anyone has ever heard of.
The second reason is more troublesome. I don't think TIG is in step with the times. Their instincts are Blairite-right: expand Heathrow, intervene in far-flung conflicts, encourage private sector involvement in schools and the NHS. That isn't where people are now. Corbyn, like it or not, has shifted the Overton window. TIG is advancing the solutions of 10 years ago.
Charlie Kennedy would clean up right now. Exasperatingly, the LibDems themselves might have a chance if they would only dump Low-Voltage Cable and elect a social liberal with a fresh face, which means Layla Moran. But TIG are in danger of offering reheated Blairism to a world that has moved on.
https://twitter.com/conservatives/status/1098933033971924993?s=21
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1099043169436606465
Big G
Eagles
ScottP
Scrapheap
Stark
Topping
Felix
Richard N (stretch target)
What am I saying? You - think?
Austin I found moving though.
When change comes, it can come very quickly.
The canny trick of ref 2 MPs like Thornberry is to get their constituency party to call for it in a vote.
Things are moving. It’s looking like the coming week is the big denouement
Rudd - not the next Tory leader.
Next cabinet minister to resign - not a good market to be in, as a possible dead heat between three (at least) contenders.
The future is bright, the future is charcoal!
The leaders of the three main party’s could change. Brexit could get beyond log jam. In an electoral cycle you can be ten points ahead mid term, such as milliband, and still lose. Is that factored in to any of this?
Tiggers are the non of the above option. They are whatever you want them to be option.
There’s a world of difference between tiggers in opinion polls and being able to fight an election.
The no deal opponents are key now. They have to bring May down by voting against her government. Yes, that's chaotic and it's far from clear what would result, but May is pushing no deal by default because she cannot take no deal off the table (even if that were possible short of approving something) without losing dozens of MPs. So give her more time and it is just facing no deal at the end anyway. Bring her down in the national interest and maybe something else could be cobbled together.
I am a pragmatist on the EU and I don't think the UK should ever join the Euro for instance. I just don't appreciate my life being turned upside down for no gain and for promises that will not be delivered or the clock turning back..
They got six months each.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/may/23/dairy-crest-invests-85m-in-cheese-factory-as-overseas-demand-grows
What Brexit has already done is reduce the value of sterling, making it cheaper for foreign firms to buy British companies. In the long run, this is often a bad thing as profits flow abroad, and worse if investment is cut.
Brexit has caused a drop in FDI - Pro-EU people, disaster it is wrong to leave the EU, we need FDI.
FDI in the UK 40 odd days before brexit - This is bad because profits will flow abroad.
Make your minds up, plueezee.
EDIT: I will also remind you of one of the non negotiable pillars of the EU. Free movement of capital. Think about what that means.
last census shows 1500 Jedi and 17 Tusken Raiders.
How blood groups are so much out of step with the national average.
PS: How are your seedlings doing, I read the other day that there are 4 to 7 months of stock in non perishable food in the UK at the moment.
Because...
It’s not the benchmark photo with where they were ten years ago, but just four years ago when Cameron jabbed for goodness sake get a tie will you
"All most" is an error for "almost" (unintentional, but it makes quite a good ad hoc intelligence test).