In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“Taking a step back the weird thing about this is that Corbyn his broken his party for no particular gain. There's factional control, but there's no bold left-wing agenda - just nationalizing trains and other tinkering, and a position on Brexit that he apparently doesn't particularly care about either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Using Electoral Calculus with: Con 30% Lab 24% TIG/LD 33% UKIP/Brexit Party 7% All other parties unchanged results in: Con 275 MPs Lab 225 MPs TIG/LD 80 MPs SNP 46 MPs That really would be a mess.
Government finances were in surplus by £14.9bn last month, the largest January surplus since records began in 1993, official figures showed. The figure was £5.6bn greater than a year ago.
The bumper surplus was driven by an increase in self-assessment income tax and capital gains tax receipts.
Office for National Statistics (ONS) data also showed that borrowing in the current financial year to January was £21.2bn, £18.5bn less than the same period last year and the lowest year-to-date figure for 17 years.
Discussed down thread. The interesting thing is that Hammond probably has £10-15bn of unexpected funds to play with in his Spring Statement next month. If the deal has gone through I expect him to pocket it in his usual dismal way but if we have no deal or serious disruption expect a blast of additional government spending.
Does this mean I can dust off my Hammond for next PM betting slips? Hammond might be unpopular with the Brexiteers but after Javid's and Hunt's last few days, not to mention Williamson's gunboat diplomacy, Hammond might look to backbenchers like the only grown-up left when Theresa May steps down. Gove has perhaps recovered a bit but is still not fully trusted, and falls foul of the old popes principle, whereas Hammond looks more like a one-term premier.
I think Hammond would be a great disappointment after the spontaneous wit, empathy and clarity of thought we have all enjoyed under May. I just can't see him reaching those peaks.
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
Paradox: If defections to TIG surge, then they could become a critical mass that is able to achieve their critical goals of (a) stopping Brexit, (b) becoming a new force in British politics. But if even a few more Conservative MPs defect, then the Government loses its tenuous majority, a General Election becomes a certainty, and most of the TIGs will be wiped out, never to be heard from again.
Yes, that's exactly the point Heidi Allen was making - she said explicitly that she doesn't want a lot of defections right now as it would lead to a GE.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU.
Threatening No Deal is an empty threat because some of the Tory party actively want it and the EU know that it will harm Britain far more than the EU. No-one on the Brexit side sold the idea of Brexit on the basis that there would be no deal. The sales pitch was all about how of course there would be a deal and how easy it would be.
The government has changed its tune or been pushed along this road because of its own utter ineptitude. It cannot now complain that some MPs have changed their mind or have decided that they will not be blackmailed into something they think a disaster for the country. If so many voters and/or MPs have now changed or their views or been reinforced in their original views, it is down to the utter failure of the Brexit camp to make an even vague attempt at a half-competently executed Brexit. It has all been empty posturing, insults, threats and self-delusion about what is realistic.
And for all their talk of the will of the people the Brexiteers are remarkably shy about asking the people three years on whether they're willing to go ahead with Brexit as it now looks.
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
LOL. You lost your licence, and you might get it back just in time to have an 800bhp car?
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
Times have changed since you could get up to 140mph on the A303.
Paradox: If defections to TIG surge, then they could become a critical mass that is able to achieve their critical goals of (a) stopping Brexit, (b) becoming a new force in British politics. But if even a few more Conservative MPs defect, then the Government loses its tenuous majority, a General Election becomes a certainty, and most of the TIGs will be wiped out, never to be heard from again.
Yes, that's exactly the point Heidi Allen was making - she said explicitly that she doesn't want a lot of defections right now as it would lead to a GE.
They should look to hold off Tory defectors whilst inviting opposition parties on masse. Only Tory defections lead to GE. If they haven't already they need to quietly register a party with the EC so they can hit the ground running if it kicks off
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
Times have changed since you could get up to 140mph on the A303.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU.
Threatening No Deal is an empty threat because some of the Tory party actively want it and the EU know that it will harm Britain far more than the EU. No-one on the Brexit side sold the idea of Brexit on the basis that there would be no deal. The sales pitch was all about how of course there would be a deal and how easy it would be.
The government has changed its tune or been pushed along this road because of its own utter ineptitude. It cannot now complain that some MPs have changed their mind or have decided that they will not be blackmailed into something they think a disaster for the country. If so many voters and/or MPs have now changed or their views or been reinforced in their original views, it is down to the utter failure of the Brexit camp to make an even vague attempt at a half-competently executed Brexit. It has all been empty posturing, insults, threats and self-delusion about what is realistic.
And for all their talk of the will of the people the Brexiteers are remarkably shy about asking the people three years on whether they're willing to go ahead with Brexit as it now looks.
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
There is no form of Brexit that will satisfy Grieve. He deceived his own constituents.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Its a popular idea in some quarters.
Just not in the quarters who've been repeatedly wrong time and time again* regarding Europe but insist with 100% certainty that 'this time its different'
* If we leave ERM * If we don't sign up for the Euro as founding members * If we don't sign up for the Euro by time currency launches 3 years later * If we rule out joining the Euro * Due to the uncertainty if we were to hold a membership referendum * Immediately after a referendum vote to Leave * If we don't reverse our decision to Leave * If a deal to Leave hasn't been ratified by at least 6 months before we Leave * If a deal to Leave hasn't been ratified by at least 3 months before we Leave * If we Leave without a deal.
In response to this which @edmundintokyo wrote on a previous thread:
“Taking a step back the weird thing about this is that Corbyn his broken his party for no particular gain. There's factional control, but there's no bold left-wing agenda - just nationalizing trains and other tinkering, and a position on Brexit that he apparently doesn't particularly care about either way. It's like a supercharged version of the TB-GB stupids.”
I think this is to misunderstand the Corbyn project.
Once control over the party has been obtained then the Far Left will unleash its full programme. McDonnell has already said, I believe, that the next manifesto will be far more radical. We should not underestimate how radical Corbyn and McDonnell intend to be. Some of their advisors are ex-Communists. They do not believe in the sanctity of private property.
From Corbyn’s perspective driving out the moderates, the Blairites, Jews etc is not breaking the party but making it more in line with his views and more suitable to achieve his aims.
Some of us said this would happen from the start. Control of the party is the most important thing to the hard left, not winning a GE too soon. The assumption is that a crisis, or just the natural pendulum of worn-out-governments, combined with FPTP, will eventually deliver power to a purist party.
So, as a Conservative, I wish the TIG well in replacing the rotten and institutionally racist Labour Party.
In broad terms, I think 20-25% of the voters very much like what Corbyn is offering. Some of them are to be found in parties like the Greens or SNP. Conversely, about one third are right wingers who support Brexit. About 5% support UKIP, and 28% support the Conservatives.
That leaves just over 40% who would potentially be receptive to the new group, although you should probably knock off a few percent to cover Scottish and Welsh Nationalists, Greens and Northern Irish.
Realistically, that probably gives a ceiling of about one third who would be willing to vote for TIG and Lib Dems combined.
Using Electoral Calculus with: Con 30% Lab 24% TIG/LD 33% UKIP/Brexit Party 7% All other parties unchanged results in: Con 275 MPs Lab 225 MPs TIG/LD 80 MPs SNP 46 MPs That really would be a mess.
CON TIG coalition.
Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
Times have changed since you could get up to 140mph on the A303.
I got six weeks' ban for 100 on the A303 in 2006, should have stood on the brakes earlier.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
Grieve and Greening's statement seems misjudged. By implying they will only leave the Tories if there is a no deal Brexit they have removed any immediate pressure on May (as let's face it I doubt that will be her biggest issue in the event of no deal). I'm surprised they didn't stay silent to give their views more leverage and leave May pondering that they might join TIG any day now.
Grieve has said for some time now that while he is a loyal Conservative he will always put the interests of the country first. In his view a No Deal Brexit is not putting the country's interests first, something he has said for some time now. So what he said last night is not news.
But, his own actions increase the chance of No Deal.
Yawn.
"Eat this shit sandwich, or I will force you and all your friends to eat ten shit sandwiches."
"But, I don't want your shit sandwich."
"Ah, so you are increasing the chance of an enforced banquet of faeces."
Although they already voted for a sandwich, and although they didn't specify it should contain shit they knew they were in the Restaurant de la Merde, and the chef was renowned for her Shit Cuisine.
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
The plan is supposed to be another batch of Labour early next week. Then, presumably, back to the Tories (just my guess; I've not seen this rumoured anywhere)
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
Me. All the time. My new turbos, manifolds and wastegates are on 4 month delivery!
From Japan, or the USA?
Japan. By the time they (and my stupidly expensive dual bank ECU) arrive and I've set it up I'll have my licence back just in time to lose it again by driving Godzilla.
Times have changed since you could get up to 140mph on the A303.
And 148 on the M4....
The most bizarre traffic moment I had was when I was driving once to Netheravon on the M3 at 4am doing around 90-100mph when a Beemer flew past me in the outside lane. In the distance behind me I saw a set of headlights and for some reason I slowed down, as did the Beemer. And as it turned out the headlights belonged to a police patrol car so there we were, all three cars driving at 69mph within 20 yards of each other on the M4 at 4am in the morning with not another car on the road. The police must have been cacking themselves with laughter.
Grieve and Greening's statement seems misjudged. By implying they will only leave the Tories if there is a no deal Brexit they have removed any immediate pressure on May (as let's face it I doubt that will be her biggest issue in the event of no deal). I'm surprised they didn't stay silent to give their views more leverage and leave May pondering that they might join TIG any day now.
Grieve has said for some time now that while he is a loyal Conservative he will always put the interests of the country first. In his view a No Deal Brexit is not putting the country's interests first, something he has said for some time now. So what he said last night is not news.
But, his own actions increase the chance of No Deal.
Yawn.
"Eat this shit sandwich, or I will force you and all your friends to eat ten shit sandwiches."
"But, I don't want your shit sandwich."
"Ah, so you are increasing the chance of an enforced banquet of faeces."
Although they already voted for a sandwich, and although they didn't specify it should contain shit they knew they were in the Restaurant de la Merde, and the chef was renowned for her Shit Cuisine.
And the service is also terrible, with even the menu taking around 18 months to arrive...
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The Recall of MPs Act 2015 has a specific clause for expenses claim fraud. He could be recalled if found guilty, irrespective of a term of imprisonment. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25
Threatening No Deal is an empty threat because some of the Tory party actively want it and the EU know that it will harm Britain far more than the EU. No-one on the Brexit side sold the idea of Brexit on the basis that there would be no deal. The sales pitch was all about how of course there would be a deal and how easy it would be.
The government has changed its tune or been pushed along this road because of its own utter ineptitude. It cannot now complain that some MPs have changed their mind or have decided that they will not be blackmailed into something they think a disaster for the country. If so many voters and/or MPs have now changed or their views or been reinforced in their original views, it is down to the utter failure of the Brexit camp to make an even vague attempt at a half-competently executed Brexit. It has all been empty posturing, insults, threats and self-delusion about what is realistic.
And for all their talk of the will of the people the Brexiteers are remarkably shy about asking the people three years on whether they're willing to go ahead with Brexit as it now looks.
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
There is no form of Brexit that will satisfy Grieve. He deceived his own constituents.
There is no form of deal that will satisfy the ERG-ers. They deceived their own constituents and the country.
They are happy to inflict a disaster on the country and by that I mean not just Brexit but a chaotic Brexit with no planning for what happens thereafter just vague statements that Britain will be free and everything will be fine. That sort of blind optimism is adorable in a three year old and a disgrace in what are meant to be grown up politicians.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
That feels such a petty reason to cite as a last straw
Seeing a report is very different to actually knowing what was going on.
Plus the ERG have - to some extent - showed a willingness to move on some issues. Soubry's position has only hardened - what purpose would there be to further meetings?
She had already decided on her path and is now seeking to justify it
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
There is no form of deal that will satisfy the ERG-ers. They deceived their own constituents and the country.
They are happy to inflict a disaster on the country and by that I mean not just Brexit but a chaotic Brexit with no planning for what happens thereafter just vague statements that Britain will be free and everything will be fine. That sort of blind optimism is adorable in a three year old and a disgrace in what are meant to be grown up politicians.
Grieve is not.
I know who I think more honourable.
The ERG voted for the deal in principle on 29/1.
Soubry, Grieve et al did not.
Soubry, Grieve etc are even more dishonourable than the ERG. And that says a lot.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Followed by the destruction of the Tory party at the following election and 13 years of a Labour government, this time led by Corbyn et al. That's encouraging.......
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Extremists who seem to find it easy to find friends and new colleagues across the political centre? Unlike the real extremists who have no friends and are alienating even their own colleagues.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Followed by the destruction of the Tory party at the following election and 13 years of a Labour government, this time led by Corbyn et al. That's encouraging.......
Corbyn is no Blair. Had Foot been leading in 1997 then I doubt that he would have won even after Black Wednesday.
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
The plan is supposed to be another batch of Labour early next week. Then, presumably, back to the Tories (just my guess; I've not seen this rumoured anywhere)
I think that is probably the plan, but I wonder if Justine is wavering and fancies getting in with her pals before the weekend. Female friendship is an incredibly powerful force.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The Recall of MPs Act 2015 has a specific clause for expenses claim fraud. He could be recalled if found guilty, irrespective of a term of imprisonment. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25
Sure, he could be, but it is obviously more work to invoke the Recall of MPs Act.
But (from what is in the public domain), it doesn't sound as though this is on the industrial scale of MacShane's efforts.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Extremists who seem to find it easy to find friends and new colleagues across the political centre? Unlike the real extremists who have no friends and are alienating even their own colleagues.
Extremists who find it easy to find friends and new colleagues amongst other headbanging extremists.
The Tiggers enumerate still fewer MPs than the ERG or many other comparable groupings as far as Brexit is concerned. Chuka and Soubry are not the political center and if you think they are that says more about you than the country.
Nick, I asked you a question about Soubry on the old thread (just as it withered on the vine). I had understood you were on good terms with her, despite her being a former opponent of yours. What is it about her that you don't like?
I hesitate to be personal about someone not on the forum, but we were on pretty bad terms (by contrast with every opponent from any party that I've ever competed with, some of whom remained personal friends afterwards) - my perception was that she was pointlessly aggressive, not just to me but to anyone who irritated her. During the count I went over to wish her all the best whatever the result, as candidates generally do - she simply snorted derisively and turned her back. To be honest I think the very low swing that she got in 2010 - though just enough - was more to do with people disliking her than liking me.
That said, she is and was admirably courageous in fighting for her views and in purely political terms we weren't all that far apart. And I've heard she can be good fun, too - very different from the usual grey, careful type of politician. So a mixed bag, like most of us.
Nearly all the media coverage of the Shamima Begum case seems very muddled about what the law says. This BBC report is an exception: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47312207
Lawyers have told the BBC that under Bangladesh law, a UK national born to a Bangladeshi parent is automatically a Bangladeshi citizen - a dual national - but the Bangladeshi authorities assert that's not the case for Ms Begum. Under this "blood line" law, Bangladeshi nationality and citizenship lapse when a person reaches the age of 21, unless they make active efforts to retain it. So, it is Ms Begum's age, 19, that is likely - in part - to have given Home Office lawyers and the home secretary reassurance there was a legal basis for stripping her of her UK citizenship.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
A party where someone seen by much of the membership as a potential leader can say "Fuck off" to business with scarcely a ripple of concern has abandoned the centre.
But if the Tories want to knock themselves out by trashing their own USP and coming across like deranged extremists willing to inflict any amount of misery on the rest of us so long as they don't have to deal with filthy foreigners, be my guest. I look forward to the day when a Tory canvasser knocks on my door asking for my vote and telling me about Corbyn and Venezuela.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Could out outline what we had to deal with in the first couple of months after the ERM exit and explain how it compares with a no deal Brexit?
Nick, I asked you a question about Soubry on the old thread (just as it withered on the vine). I had understood you were on good terms with her, despite her being a former opponent of yours. What is it about her that you don't like?
I hesitate to be personal about someone not on the forum, but we were on pretty bad terms (by contrast with every opponent from any party that I've ever competed with, some of whom remained personal friends afterwards) - my perception was that she was pointlessly aggressive, not just to me but to anyone who irritated her. During the count I went over to wish her all the best whatever the result, as candidates generally do - she simply snorted derisively and turned her back. To be honest I think the very low swing that she got in 2010 - though just enough - was more to do with people disliking her than liking me.
That said, she is and was admirably courageous in fighting for her views and in purely political terms we weren't all that far apart. And I've heard she can be good fun, too - very different from the usual grey, careful type of politician. So a mixed bag, like most of us.
Nick, fair enough. Thanks for the reply. I think she can be acerbic. Maybe, if you told her that now, she might recant. She seems to be a bit of a force of nature, rather than someone who carefully assesses how she might come across in the moment.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Extremists who seem to find it easy to find friends and new colleagues across the political centre? Unlike the real extremists who have no friends and are alienating even their own colleagues.
Extremists who find it easy to find friends and new colleagues amongst other headbanging extremists.
The Tiggers enumerate still fewer MPs than the ERG or many other comparable groupings as far as Brexit is concerned. Chuka and Soubry are not the political center and if you think they are that says more about you than the country.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Followed by the destruction of the Tory party at the following election and 13 years of a Labour government, this time led by Corbyn et al. That's encouraging.......
Corbyn is no Blair. Had Foot been leading in 1997 then I doubt that he would have won even after Black Wednesday.
Corbyn has quite a lot of charisma and is a very good campaigning politician. Don't underestimate him. I dislike him and think he is a bad leader and would be a bad PM. But he has some excellent political skills which may well make him win a GE.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Maybe she could find another East Midlands seat to stand in. Derby North would be fun.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Maybe she could find another East Midlands seat to stand in. Derby North would be fun.
Nottingham Rushcliffe is a favourable seat that will be vacant after the next election...
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.
Nah, the shared short term aim is political reform. After that there'll be space for both of them.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Knowing the seat as I do, I think Greening would hold Putney under the silver banner of Tig. And probably by a bigger majority than she did under the blue rosette.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The Recall of MPs Act 2015 has a specific clause for expenses claim fraud. He could be recalled if found guilty, irrespective of a term of imprisonment. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25
Sure, he could be, but it is obviously more work to invoke the Recall of MPs Act.
But (from what is in the public domain), it doesn't sound as though this is on the industrial scale of MacShane's efforts.
Possibly not on the scale other well known MP expenses frauds, but still sufficient for a recall petition against him if convicted under the current legislation.
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Extremists who seem to find it easy to find friends and new colleagues across the political centre? Unlike the real extremists who have no friends and are alienating even their own colleagues.
Extremists who find it easy to find friends and new colleagues amongst other headbanging extremists.
The Tiggers enumerate still fewer MPs than the ERG or many other comparable groupings as far as Brexit is concerned. Chuka and Soubry are not the political center and if you think they are that says more about you than the country.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.
Nah, the shared short term aim is political reform. After that there'll be space for both of them.
They get squashed like a bug before they get any chance - by FPTP.....
There is no form of deal that will satisfy the ERG-ers. They deceived their own constituents and the country.
They are happy to inflict a disaster on the country and by that I mean not just Brexit but a chaotic Brexit with no planning for what happens thereafter just vague statements that Britain will be free and everything will be fine. That sort of blind optimism is adorable in a three year old and a disgrace in what are meant to be grown up politicians.
Grieve is not.
I know who I think more honourable.
The ERG voted for the deal in principle on 29/1.
Soubry, Grieve et al did not.
Soubry, Grieve etc are even more dishonourable than the ERG. And that says a lot.
"The deal in principle" meaning "a different deal"?
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Maybe she could find another East Midlands seat to stand in. Derby North would be fun.
Nottingham Rushcliffe is a favourable seat that will be vacant after the next election...
If you refuse to compromise, you increase the chance of getting what you least want. The same goes for the ERG.
This is a man who says it is his "sacred duty" to oppose Brexit.
I know we disagree on the substance of Brexit.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU...
(Snip)
has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Which is precisely the point the Tory three are making; the Conservative party gives every indication of having abandoned the centre. One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
The Conservative Party hasn't abandoned the centre.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
Extremists who seem to find it easy to find friends and new colleagues across the political centre? Unlike the real extremists who have no friends and are alienating even their own colleagues.
Extremists who find it easy to find friends and new colleagues amongst other headbanging extremists.
The Tiggers enumerate still fewer MPs than the ERG or many other comparable groupings as far as Brexit is concerned. Chuka and Soubry are not the political center and if you think they are that says more about you than the country.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
Everyone thinks of themselves as moderate and their opponents extreme.
What’s striking about this group is that rather than leave their old party on a point of principle, they’re using their departure as a mechanism to disassociate themselves with anything they previously did or said to get elected.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.
The boundless optimism of the LibDems .....
If they are shoo-ins, why are they not resigning and forcing by-elections ?
It would be glorious publicity, and the by-elections would give them a great chance to establish their new credentials. In fact, their chances of holding their seats at subsequent GEs would be massively improved (a point made by others below).
They don't do this because they are not shoo-ins.
And will there not be LibDems candidates who have worked hard in these constituencies and now must back down for the TIGGers? Do you not remember Bill Pitt ?
Not all LibDem candidates are going to be pleased to be told to back off, a Meejah Star is now the candidate.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
Maybe she could find another East Midlands seat to stand in. Derby North would be fun.
Nottingham Rushcliffe is a favourable seat that will be vacant after the next election...
She could try Mansfield.
Trying Mansfield is not advice any gentleman would give to anyone.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
I don't think so at all.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
Mr. Glenn, if the Labour leadership overtly backs a second referendum that'll discourage potential defectors. May, however, is unlikely to be able to make the same manoeuvre.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
They have a chance, but neither is a shoo in.
I reckon Wollaston would lose, Totnes might be Liberal but it is half the size of Brixham and indeed I suspect the rural areas are to the right of Wollaston's politics. The Lib Dems only scored 6,000 voters compared to the 12,000 in Heidi Allen's consituency.
Hopefully the Tories will put up a half decent Devon born moderate Brexit candidate and she'll be toast.
Just wondering we are all confused by the fall in unemployment vs gdp and now a load of “unexpected” self assessment income has arrived. Could it be that due to the changing nature of employment that the traditional ways of estimating gdp etc aren’t capturing the complete picture?
Yes. Official statistics are getting screwed. Construction numbers keep being revised upwards, and employment stats don't come close to correlation with GDP stats.
Shhhh!! We don't want the EU to know how well we're doing, or they'll stiff us for another £20 billion exit fees......
I know it's an unpopular idea, but no deal and £20bn of mitigation has a good chance of ending up like the UK economy after the 1992 ERM exit, even if there's a pile of sh!t to wade through in the first couple of months.
Followed by the destruction of the Tory party at the following election and 13 years of a Labour government, this time led by Corbyn et al. That's encouraging.......
Corbyn is no Blair. Had Foot been leading in 1997 then I doubt that he would have won even after Black Wednesday.
Corbyn has quite a lot of charisma and is a very good campaigning politician. Don't underestimate him. I dislike him and think he is a bad leader and would be a bad PM. But he has some excellent political skills which may well make him win a GE.
Well it is also perfect timing, he has a well rehearsed script honed over 40 years and now a significant number of people are willing to give this socialism lark another hearing.
Who orders something that won't be here by the end of the week - let alone five?
People who want a thing that takes over five weeks to obtain and deliver. You can contact him and tell him that he is buying the wrong thing if you like, but I doubt you would receive a sympathetic hearing
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
I don't think so at all.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
It's like being an extremist about not jumping out of planes without a parachute.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
That is still asking the LibDems to play second fiddle to a group whose practical short-medium term aim is to supplant them as the third party. Short of the two political forces (can't say parties yet) merging, the LibDem inclination might just be to tell them to piss off.
Sure, the Lib Dems would be hoping for a quid pro quo elsewhere, in addition to the general cleansing effect of being associated with the bright new thing rather than the Coalition.
If the ERG are a fringe view on Europe then Soubry et all must be beyond the fringes. To block any form of Brexit is more extremist than moderate in fairness.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
The Recall of MPs Act 2015 has a specific clause for expenses claim fraud. He could be recalled if found guilty, irrespective of a term of imprisonment. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25
Sure, he could be, but it is obviously more work to invoke the Recall of MPs Act.
But (from what is in the public domain), it doesn't sound as though this is on the industrial scale of MacShane's efforts.
Possibly not on the scale other well known MP expenses frauds, but still sufficient for a recall petition against him if convicted under the current legislation.
I think we have to wait and see the circumstances of this offence.
My only point is that MPs have survived far worse stink and still come up smelling of attar of roses.
So now Greening has removed references to being a Conservative from her profile
Greening seems to me a likely defector.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Allen and Wollaston are shoo-ins, with LibDem and Green support. Greening could stand a chance. Soubry less so, although she undoubtedly is the highest profile.
They have a chance, but neither is a shoo in.
I reckon Wollaston would lose, Totnes might be Liberal but it is half the size of Brixham and indeed I suspect the rural areas are to the right of Wollaston's politics. The Lib Dems only scored 6,000 voters compared to the 12,000 in Heidi Allen's consituency.
Hopefully the Tories will put up a half decent Devon born moderate Brexit candidate and she'll be toast.
look on the bright side in Wollaston gets re elected the tigs will be playing prima donna for the next 5 years, could be hugely amusing
There is no form of deal that will satisfy the ERG-ers. They deceived their own constituents and the country.
They are happy to inflict a disaster on the country and by that I mean not just Brexit but a chaotic Brexit with no planning for what happens thereafter just vague statements that Britain will be free and everything will be fine. That sort of blind optimism is adorable in a three year old and a disgrace in what are meant to be grown up politicians.
Grieve is not.
I know who I think more honourable.
The ERG voted for the deal in principle on 29/1.
Soubry, Grieve et al did not.
Soubry, Grieve etc are even more dishonourable than the ERG. And that says a lot.
"The deal in principle" meaning "a different deal"?
Yes. That is the point of negotiations.
The ERG have shown there's a deal they can back, despite being OK with no deal.
Soubry, Grieve et al have claimed to be appalled at the idea of no deal, but equally shown there's no deal they will back.
Soubry, Grieve et al are more extreme than the ERG. To be both against no deal and against any deal is a very extreme position.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
I don't think so at all.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
It's like being an extremist about not jumping out of planes without a parachute.
Except that the planes engine is on fire, we've made a decision to leave the plane and there is someone by the door handing out parachutes.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
I don't think so at all.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
I think you would struggle to find many normal people who consider the Tiggers extremists, but whatever gets you through the night.
I don't think so at all.
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
Keep taking the pills.
The fact you can't argue with my logic so are turning to ad hominems instead says more about you than me.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.
Comments
The only question being would she resign as AM immediately or double hat - at least for a while..?
I think a Labour MP is more likely than a Conservative, simply because most of the Tories who might be tempted are waiting to see what happens in next week's vote.
But it is the government which is responsible for how we exit the EU and I hold the government wholly responsible for its utter failure to come to an agreement which it can get past Parliament and past the EU.
Threatening No Deal is an empty threat because some of the Tory party actively want it and the EU know that it will harm Britain far more than the EU. No-one on the Brexit side sold the idea of Brexit on the basis that there would be no deal. The sales pitch was all about how of course there would be a deal and how easy it would be.
The government has changed its tune or been pushed along this road because of its own utter ineptitude. It cannot now complain that some MPs have changed their mind or have decided that they will not be blackmailed into something they think a disaster for the country. If so many voters and/or MPs have now changed or their views or been reinforced in their original views, it is down to the utter failure of the Brexit camp to make an even vague attempt at a half-competently executed Brexit. It has all been empty posturing, insults, threats and self-delusion about what is realistic.
And for all their talk of the will of the people the Brexiteers are remarkably shy about asking the people three years on whether they're willing to go ahead with Brexit as it now looks.
A Tory party indifferent to whether people like Grieve can stay in it or not may be fine for dyed in the wool Tories but it looks really quite repellent and mad to people like me who have no party affiliation and whose vote is up for grabs. It needs to take a good hard look at itself and see itself as others see it. It is currently talking to itself. And, yes, the polls - I know. But do you really think that if Corbyn and McDonnell left the scene and sanity returned to Labour, the Tories would be 7 points ahead? Do you really think they are ahead now, in reality? Do you really think that if tariffs are put on food and prices go up the nation will be grateful to the Tories for having enacted the Will of the People, as if Britain has turned into some sort of Ruritania in an Ealing comedy?
Just not in the quarters who've been repeatedly wrong time and time again* regarding Europe but insist with 100% certainty that 'this time its different'
* If we leave ERM
* If we don't sign up for the Euro as founding members
* If we don't sign up for the Euro by time currency launches 3 years later
* If we rule out joining the Euro
* Due to the uncertainty if we were to hold a membership referendum
* Immediately after a referendum vote to Leave
* If we don't reverse our decision to Leave
* If a deal to Leave hasn't been ratified by at least 6 months before we Leave
* If a deal to Leave hasn't been ratified by at least 3 months before we Leave
* If we Leave without a deal.
Every time, this time is different.
What is in the public domain suggests the offence relates to a contested receipt of 700 pounds, which sounds a rather modest sum of money.
Even if found guilty, it must be doubtful whether this would lead to a custodial offence of more than a year, so I am not sure a by-election is even likely.
Dennis McShane pleased guilty to 13,000 pounds worth of fake receipts and got 6 months.
The only two parties who could win B&R are the Tories and the LibDems: as always in these rural Welsh seats, the quality of the candidate really matters.
One of them (Soubry ?) said the last straw came when May refused to meet with them, shortly before they saw a report of ERG reps filing into No10 for a chat...
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2015/25
They are happy to inflict a disaster on the country and by that I mean not just Brexit but a chaotic Brexit with no planning for what happens thereafter just vague statements that Britain will be free and everything will be fine. That sort of blind optimism is adorable in a three year old and a disgrace in what are meant to be grown up politicians.
Grieve is not.
I know who I think more honourable.
Soubry et al have abandoned the centre and are headbanging extremists even more extreme than the ERG.
That is, I think she may be in a reasonable position to actually hold her Putney seat as a TIGGer.
I give Soubry and Allen little chance. But Wollaston and Greening maybe evens.
Seeing a report is very different to actually knowing what was going on.
Plus the ERG have - to some extent - showed a willingness to move on some issues. Soubry's position has only hardened - what purpose would there be to further meetings?
She had already decided on her path and is now seeking to justify it
Soubry, Grieve et al did not.
Soubry, Grieve etc are even more dishonourable than the ERG. And that says a lot.
But (from what is in the public domain), it doesn't sound as though this is on the industrial scale of MacShane's efforts.
The Tiggers enumerate still fewer MPs than the ERG or many other comparable groupings as far as Brexit is concerned. Chuka and Soubry are not the political center and if you think they are that says more about you than the country.
That said, she is and was admirably courageous in fighting for her views and in purely political terms we weren't all that far apart. And I've heard she can be good fun, too - very different from the usual grey, careful type of politician. So a mixed bag, like most of us.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47312207
Lawyers have told the BBC that under Bangladesh law, a UK national born to a Bangladeshi parent is automatically a Bangladeshi citizen - a dual national - but the Bangladeshi authorities assert that's not the case for Ms Begum.
Under this "blood line" law, Bangladeshi nationality and citizenship lapse when a person reaches the age of 21, unless they make active efforts to retain it.
So, it is Ms Begum's age, 19, that is likely - in part - to have given Home Office lawyers and the home secretary reassurance there was a legal basis for stripping her of her UK citizenship.
O/T, did anyone else have trouble with vanilla being suddenly 'unavailable' on Safari about an hour ago?
But if the Tories want to knock themselves out by trashing their own USP and coming across like deranged extremists willing to inflict any amount of misery on the rest of us so long as they don't have to deal with filthy foreigners, be my guest. I look forward to the day when a Tory canvasser knocks on my door asking for my vote and telling me about Corbyn and Venezuela.
What’s striking about this group is that rather than leave their old party on a point of principle, they’re using their departure as a mechanism to disassociate themselves with anything they previously did or said to get elected.
If they are shoo-ins, why are they not resigning and forcing by-elections ?
It would be glorious publicity, and the by-elections would give them a great chance to establish their new credentials. In fact, their chances of holding their seats at subsequent GEs would be massively improved (a point made by others below).
They don't do this because they are not shoo-ins.
And will there not be LibDems candidates who have worked hard in these constituencies and now must back down for the TIGGers? Do you not remember Bill Pitt ?
Not all LibDem candidates are going to be pleased to be told to back off, a Meejah Star is now the candidate.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1098549265423572993
Wanting to reverse the 2016 referendum result through any means necessary which is the Tiggers position absolutely is an extremist position. Even to the point of rejecting a deal while supposedly being against no deal.
Just because they're not extremists on antisemitism doesn't mean they're not extremists on Brexit.
Hopefully the Tories will put up a half decent Devon born moderate Brexit candidate and she'll be toast.
My only point is that MPs have survived far worse stink and still come up smelling of attar of roses.
The ERG have shown there's a deal they can back, despite being OK with no deal.
Soubry, Grieve et al have claimed to be appalled at the idea of no deal, but equally shown there's no deal they will back.
Soubry, Grieve et al are more extreme than the ERG. To be both against no deal and against any deal is a very extreme position.
All-rounder Ben Stokes and wicketkeeper Jos Buttler will be rested.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/47315413
England's two best T20 players rested and Jason Roy also missing...hmmm..
Seems like the best thing to happen in politics in this country since May’s failed attempt to win a majority for Brexit in 2017.
Burgon, Pidcock, Fabricant, Chope? Not so much.
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left. - Greatest PM since Churchill. Though pills isn't particularly wounding, it is a lame personal rather than political attack.