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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters evaluate the week’s big developments
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Wot no TIGgers?
The Tiggers would be best to hang on for its defections until Monday morning (leaked Sunday for paper exclusives). They command the news cycle currently so don’t need another hit until at least the weekend.
I'd rate our politicians as world class at self-obsessed posturing but a lot lower at being constructive and competent.
The unkindest cut of all....
' UK public finances hit record surplus in January
Breaking: Good news for Philip Hammond, after public finances hit a record surplus of £14.9bn in January thanks to strong income tax receipts.
It easily beat City expectations of a £10.05bn surplus, and compared with borrowing of £3bn in December.
The figure comes just ahead of the chancellor’s spring statement on 13 March. '
There's a lot of self-assessment taxes paid in January and this does suggest that there are many, many people doing very well at the moment.
What to do? I wouldn't know where to start, although the voting system might be a good place.
[I'm aware of the bad grammar, but the twist appealed to me].
At the very least, they’ve surely already triggered the beginning of the end of Corbyn’s leadership for which we must all be grateful.
As far as I’m concerned the TIGs are heroes. If they can see off Corbyn *and* Brexit, we should put up statues to them in Parliament Square.
For that matter, the best ever employment stats were a footnote on the news recently. The fetish for woe and misery distorts reporting, and public perception of reality.
Or the traditional Llanfair Pwllgwyngyll
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1098522727831531520
As a good Remainer I do not pander to xenophobia. I demand the right to have my inner snowflake moment!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Black_Buck
youtube.com/watch?v=PBJ99bIhAVk
As far as brexit is concerned I do hope that either the deal goes through or there ia a vote on the deal
"As one cabinet minister argues, the formation of the Independent Group will be beneficial for the government even though three Tory MPs have defected to it. The minister’s logic is that Tory voters are roughly speaking where the Tory leadership is on Brexit, and it is hard to imagine many of the party’s supporters being attracted to a group made up of the most ardent second referendum enthusiasts."
I'm not so sure on that line of reasoning.
The Tory vote share has proved remarkably resilient since 2017 despite intra-party disagreements leading the news every other day and a complete failure to progress on Brexit, the one policy they have.
My hunch is that the Conservative vote is being shored up by people who will never vote for a Marxist. Yes, this is only a hunch, but I don't think it's too much of a leap to say "some British voters are unimpressed with the current Tories but don't want to vote for a Marxist".
So the minister may be over-confident. I can easily see 15% of Tory support peeling off to TIG simply because there is now another alternative to voting for Marxists, and better still, an alternative that doesn't have Jacob Rees-Mogg or Andrew Bridgen in its ranks.
The Telegraph wasn't much better.
Since we have a productivity puzzle that's also difficult to explain the answer might be that growth is better than it looks, at least a little bit.
Now it's the Tudors, although he's to concentrate on Tudor clothes.
He's not best pleased.
TheWhiteRabbit said:
Wow.
The Exchequer has just arguably its best January ever*
*there are some timing effects January and February - we shall see
I said:
Absolutely incredible: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/january2019
"Borrowing (public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks) in January 2019 was in surplus by £14.9 billion, a £5.6 billion greater surplus than in January 2018; this was the largest January surplus on record (records began in 1993)."
"Borrowing in the current financial year-to-date (April 2018 to January 2019) (YTD) was £21.2 billion, £18.5 billion less than in the same period last year; the lowest YTD for 17 years (since 2001)."
No one is going to persuade me that we generated that much extra tax with growth of 1.2% for the year. It's just not possible.
And why are Tudor clothes more relevant than say the dissolution of the monasteries or the changing patterns of religious worship?
I'm inclined to wonder if this shows that the SLT members responsible were appointed because of who their friends were.
By symbolically breaking the duopoly the creation of TIG gives licence to voters who wouldn't consider voting for Centrist Remainers to consider voting for minor parties on the right and left.
Anyway rape, incest, fratricide, and kidnap are not unknown in Basildon, although I wasn't, when I worked in the area, aware of any cannibalism
But 500 Welshmen whipped the arses of 40,000 Frenchmen so hard they agreed to accept a Welshman as their next King.
See here from Matt Stevens, who is an absolute legend:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-34618197
There are longer term trends towards more self employment which makes historical comparisons difficult but not over the last 12 months. Indeed, IIRC there has been an increase in paid employment and a modest reduction in self-employed status over that time.
To me, this suggests far more economic activity than the ONS is capturing. It also suggests that overall earnings growth is running well ahead of the official 3% or so based on employed figures. This in turn suggests that there is a lot more demand available in the economy than the current modelling indicates improving the prospects of us avoiding the EZ recession this year.
This will age well or it wont.
It's perfect. Meanwhile I would actually think twice before telling the stories of some of the gods before about year 9.
Edit - especially that one about Pasiphaë!
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098527833205473280
I know there are people who think that comes with Chuka - but they are wrong. He is a dreadful public speaker and comes off as self-serving.
They need a Roy or a Shirley. Someone who has held a significant office - a track record of service and (hopefully) success.
Backbenchers who would be struggled to be named by their own constituents don't quite cut the mustard.
BTW does Sarah Wollaston lose her position as Chair of the Health Select Committee - given that she was only present on the committee by virtue of being a Tory MP?
Solution: Have the elections
This was the easiest thing about brexit so far.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1098525355219001344
You want a good job done in the fifteenth century? Send for a Welshman.
We saw that with him and the Talbots against Glyndwr, Henry himself at Agincourt, Owen Tudor when Queen Katherine was feeling lonesome, Jasper Tudor for most of the second half of the century, William Herbert under Edward IV, and Henry VII when a certain infanticide needed replacing.
I'll note the 13th Earl of Oxford as an honourable exception.
(I am teasing somewhat, by the way, before anyone gets too carried away!)
But then, if we have an extension of article 50 to July 1st, and then we decide to revoke article 50 on June 30th, then whatever mess exists for the European Parliament elections has to be resolved somehow.
And anyone who believes that this sort of order will be affected is just exaggerating.
More details needed before this is in any way credible.
Henry IV's policy was to get his kids stuck in early, which was how he himself had acted in his youth. Interesting monarch, much enjoyed Ian Mortimer's biography of him.
Had they polled better they could have reached a tipping point where FPTP plays in their favour and against the old parties. Like 2015 SNP.
Just because he doesn't like that doesn't mean MPs haven't made a decision.