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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Br

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  • SeanT said:

    Unless, of course, OGH is happy to have people like Dura_Ace on his comments page, then fair enough, But that turns it into Guido. And that is HIS call.

    The problem with Guido isn't that it has some entertainingly rude people, it's that all the people who post there are mad, and the same kind of mad to boot
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Foxy said:

    Anyone got any idea why the FSTE is holding up so well, given all the Brexit uncertainty?

    I can't think it's the prospect of bright sunlit uplands.

    Well, the outlook for the FTSE100 is probably fairly Brexit neutral overall. If we crash out in chaos, the pound will collapse and all those foreign earnings will be worth more in sterling terms. Conversely if some kind of sensible transition is agreed (let alone revocation or delay for a referendum), the pound will rise but that will be offset by a big surge of relief and renewed confidence in the UK market. For that reason, my personal view is that FTSE100 trackers (which I wouldn't normally invest in, because the FTSE100 is such a bizarre, unbalanced, and over-concentrated index) are rather attractive at the moment.

    For the smaller companies, more tied to the UK economy, the outlook is binary: crash out bad, deal or delay or revocation good. The market price is the weighted average of the two outcomes (overlaid of course on other factors). It's a risky play investing in the UK economy, but it could be a very profitable one if we don't crash out.
    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    SeanT said:

    Unless, of course, OGH is happy to have people like Dura_Ace on his comments page, then fair enough, But that turns it into Guido. And that is HIS call.

    The problem with Guido isn't that it has some entertainingly rude people, it's that all the people who post there are mad, and the same kind of mad to boot
    PB is the only site with a range of strongly held views.

    Tbf we need Sean and Dura as much as we need Big_G and...

    Well I can't think of anyone else as polite as Big_G tbh but you know what I mean.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited February 2019
    What do PBrs think the odds of the new cooper/boles amendment passing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    SeanT said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    We will replace their models with Seat Exeo's and Skoda Superbs, and Hyundai's and Kia's.

    The ability to use an apostrophe has definitely supplanted BMI as the most statistically reliable indicator of Leave/Remain proclivity.
    Interesting. You have an antipathy for Leavers who are slapdash with their punctuation. Fair enough. It may seem pedantic to some, but it is important to you. Your call.

    Except... you wrote THIS in January.

    "Probably... May deposed and A50 revoked or at the very least delayed. What we lotophagi of pb.com often forget is how wildly popular No Deal will be among the belligerent shit munchers of the north who smoke cigarettes and have clothes with writing on it."

    So you don't just believe some Leaver PB-ers are a bit cavalier with their semi-colons. You believe your fellow Britons - millions of them - who voted Leave, and who come from the north - literally eat human feces. They are "shit eaters". And you support this with the clinching evidence that they smoke cigarettes and have "clothes with writing on it".

    I suggest you are a virulent, anti-white racist snob. You are a fucking disgrace to this site and the best thing you can do is apologise, grovel, then leave the site and never return.
    I disagree - @Dura_Ace is one of the more interesting and often witty PB posters and certainly nowhere near as offensive as a fully tanked-up SeanT.
    Yeah, our scatalogical matelot adds a little something unusual to the site, not least real knowledge on military matters. Its worth cutting him a bit of slack, something true of many veterans. Peacenik though I am, I have a lot of respect for those who have felt a different calling, and put their bodies and minds on the line.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,275
    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    We will replace their models with Seat Exeo's and Skoda Superbs, and Hyundai's and Kia's.

    The ability to use an apostrophe has definitely supplanted BMI as the most statistically reliable indicator of Leave/Remain proclivity.
    Interesting. You have an antipathy for Leavers who are slapdash with their punctuation. Fair enough. It may seem pedantic to some, but it is important to you. Your call.

    Except... you wrote THIS in January.

    "Probably... May deposed and A50 revoked or at the very least delayed. What we lotophagi of pb.com often forget is how wildly popular No Deal will be among the belligerent shit munchers of the north who smoke cigarettes and have clothes with writing on it."

    So you don't just believe some Leaver PB-ers are a bit cavalier with their semi-colons. You believe your fellow Britons - millions of them - who voted Leave, and who come from the north - literally eat human feces. They are "shit eaters". And you support this with the clinching evidence that they smoke cigarettes and have "clothes with writing on it".

    I suggest you are a virulent, anti-white racist snob. You are a fucking disgrace to this site and the best thing you can do is apologise, grovel, then leave the site and never return.
    I am from the north , I don’t eat shit , I don’t smoke and I don’t wear clothes with writing on , but I voted leave , mainly because people like Dura Ace irritate the shit out of me
    A strangely indirect way of expressing your antipathy.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, while I'm here, a quick question. Do we think the probability of Leaving on time has increased or decreased due to this news?

    Which news?
    The article is headed "TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters". I think this was a reference to the statement that the vote will be delayed to a point very close to B-day. That was "the news" I was referring to.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,618
    O/T

    "London Underground staff are being issued with new red vests to be worn in stations from next week, so that they are more visible to passengers.

    The red tabards are reversible, pairing the standard orange high visibility vest with a red vest featuring a ‘Here to Help’ message on the back."


    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/02/12/red-vests-for-london-underground-staff/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537



    I disagree - @Dura_Ace is one of the more interesting and often witty PB posters and certainly nowhere near as offensive as a fully tanked-up SeanT.

    Of course. SeanT can be entertaining but the sight of him clutching his pearls at somebody being offensive is hilarious in a quite different sense.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, while I'm here, a quick question. Do we think the probability of Leaving on time has increased or decreased due to this news?

    Which news?
    The article is headed "TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters". I think this was a reference to the statement that the vote will be delayed to a point very close to B-day. That was "the news" I was referring to.
    I refer back to my (apparently) inflammatory remarks about tab smokers with clothing illuminated like medieval manuscripts. No deal is wildly popular in certain quarters of the population. May will have seen polling to this effect and that is probably why she is starting to be seduced by its siren call.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    kjohnw said:

    SeanT said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    We will replace their models with Seat Exeo's and Skoda Superbs, and Hyundai's and Kia's.

    The ability to use an apostrophe has definitely supplanted BMI as the most statistically reliable indicator of Leave/Remain proclivity.
    Interesting. You have an antipathy for Leavers who are slapdash with their punctuation. Fair enough. It may seem pedantic to some, but it is important to you. Your call.

    Except... you wrote THIS in January.

    "Probably... May deposed and A50 revoked or at the very least delayed. What we lotophagi of pb.com often forget is how wildly popular No Deal will be among the belligerent shit munchers of the north who smoke cigarettes and have clothes with writing on it."

    So you don't just believe some Leaver PB-ers are a bit cavalier with their semi-colons. You believe your fellow Britons - millions of them - who voted Leave, and who come from the north - literally eat human feces. They are "shit eaters". And you support this with the clinching evidence that they smoke cigarettes and have "clothes with writing on it".

    I suggest you are a virulent, anti-white racist snob. You are a fucking disgrace to this site and the best thing you can do is apologise, grovel, then leave the site and never return.
    I am from the north , I don’t eat shit , I don’t smoke and I don’t wear clothes with writing on , but I voted leave , mainly because people like Dura Ace irritate the shit out of me
    I voted Leave mainly because it irritated the shit out of people like Dura Ace.

    (Not really. But it's a superb side-effect....)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Dura_Ace said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, while I'm here, a quick question. Do we think the probability of Leaving on time has increased or decreased due to this news?

    Which news?
    The article is headed "TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters". I think this was a reference to the statement that the vote will be delayed to a point very close to B-day. That was "the news" I was referring to.
    I refer back to my (apparently) inflammatory remarks about tab smokers with clothing illuminated like medieval manuscripts. No deal is wildly popular in certain quarters of the population. May will have seen polling to this effect and that is probably why she is starting to be seduced by its siren call.
    Yes, from a political point of view it is a British equivalent of the way the US Republicans moved away from being the party of business, to being the party of guns and the unborn. Our cultural divide is different, but dividing over culture and identity as the Tories have chosen is quite a break with the class based politics of the past.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    It does help to be supported by those who vote. I am sure the Tory strategists will be hoping UKIP continue to implode so they can pick up some more votes
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    I note if you were able to vote in 1975 referendum you are much more l8kely to vote Tory
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    I note if you were able to vote in 1975 referendum you are much more l8kely to vote Tory
    It's the other way around: those who vote Tory now are more likely to be of an age that could have voted in 1975. Of those who voted in 1975, some will have died or left in the meantime. Of those who vote Tory now, some will have come from outside the country.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    I note if you were able to vote in 1975 referendum you are much more l8kely to vote Tory
    Winter of discontent + newspaper readership were always my takes, maybe a little bit of Cold War and Thatcher appreciation society as well.

    I suppose there is an overlay of the leave vote on top of that as well which the original referendum could be linked too.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    I note if you were able to vote in 1975 referendum you are much more l8kely to vote Tory
    If you were too young to vote in the 2016 referendum you're much more likely to vote Labour. Are any young people grateful to or appreciate of the tories for the thin gruel of Brexit?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:



    The bit that seems to me to have been overlooked is that demanding a long extension without any particular plan for what to do with it will not get EU agreement. A short extension to tidy up an agreement, certainly. A long extension to hold a referendum or a GE or try some completely different track, maybe. But a few months to kick the can? Nah.

    Can we theoretically just revoke it then reinvoke it at a point of our own choosing?
    I think so. But any remaining goodwill would terminally evaporate - they'd think we were taking the piss.
    Is the situation you have described any different to the current situation?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    We will replace their models with Seat Exeo's and Skoda Superbs, and Hyundai's and Kia's.

    The ability to use an apostrophe has definitely supplanted BMI as the most statistically reliable indicator of Leave/Remain proclivity.
    Interesting. You have an antipathy for Leavers who are slapdash with their punctuation. Fair enough. It may seem pedantic to some, but it is important to you. Your call.

    Except... you wrote THIS in January.

    "Probably... May deposed and A50 revoked or at the very least delayed. What we lotophagi of pb.com often forget is how wildly popular No Deal will be among the belligerent shit munchers of the north who smoke cigarettes and have clothes with writing on it."

    So you don't just believe some Leaver PB-ers are a bit cavalier with their semi-colons. You believe your fellow Britons - millions of them - who voted Leave, and who come from the north - literally eat human feces. They are "shit eaters". And you support this with the clinching evidence that they smoke cigarettes and have "clothes with writing on it".

    I suggest you are a virulent, anti-white racist snob. You are a fucking disgrace to this site and the best thing you can do is apologise, grovel, then leave the site and never return.
    I disagree - @Dura_Ace is one of the more interesting and often witty PB posters and certainly nowhere near as offensive as a fully tanked-up SeanT.
    Let OGH decide.
    🧐
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    .
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    edited February 2019

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article (£):


    "Winston Churchill was a racist but still a great man

    Daniel Finkelstein

    It’s right to re-examine historical figures but acknowledging their flaws shouldn’t prevent them being seen as heroes"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

    It's also wrong to judge historical figures' character and morality by the mores of today. Know how the values of yesteryear would no longer be acceptable and even how unacceptable the views of our heroes would be today, certainly. But judge them based on an environment they were never exposed to is just intellectual wanking.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    kjohnw said:

    What do PBrs think the odds of the new cooper/boles amendment passing?

    When is it due, and what does it say
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,193
    edited February 2019

    Chris said:

    Does the two-pronged offensive suffer from the same fatal defect that's dogged her efforts all along?

    She's got to simultaneously convince Leavers that she's going to extend, and Remainers that she's going to No Deal. How can she do both?

    And is the threat of extension really a potent one, unless people think it's going to be the first of a series - which there's no reason to think the EU will allow?

    I think it might not suffer from that problem. The proposal would be: 'We've run out of time. We need an extension to avoid total chaos in a few days' time, but the extension is only available if we sign up to the deal on offer.'

    The complicating factor is that the government won't be the only one manoeuvring. The Yvette Cooper amendment is designed to provide a Revoke alternative to No Deal (effectively). However, it has some tricky procedural hurdles to overcome even if the initial amendment is passed (which I think it will be, with more Tory realists switching over, unless there's some other breakthrough in the meantime).
    More MPs voted for the Grieve amendment last month and permanent Customs Union last year ie 301 for both than the 298 who voted for Cooper Boles so I think converting May's temporary Customs Union for GB to a permanent Customs Union is more likely to win Commons support than extension and revoke and get the support of the full 318 MPs who voted to rule out No Deal. I expect from their statements Olly Robbins and Gavin Barlow and much of the Cabinet would be fine with that
  • About time May is doing the right thing and putting our country first. Let us hope Varadkar, Tusk et al get and understand the message.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,275
    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    What do PBrs think the odds of the new cooper/boles amendment passing?

    When is it due, and what does it say
    It’s here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/12/brexit-latest-news-developmens-mays-statment-mps-need-to-hold-our-nerve-may-to-tell-mps-as-leadsom-hints-uk-softening-call-for-deal-to-be-rewritten-politics-live?page=with:block-5c6307dce4b042feedcbc84b#block-5c6307dce4b042feedcbc84b

    Cooper says she will press for a vote on an amendment creating time for her bill on Wednesday 27 February, if Theresa May has not passed a deal by then. That means 27 February is the next crunch deadline for the PM. Tory pro-Europeans who have not rebelled on this issue yet are hinting that they will rebel then to vote for the Cooper plan.
    Cooper and her allies are not proposing a vote this week on an amendment creating time for a bill designed to rule out a no-deal Brexit.
    The new Cooper bill would give May until Wednesday 13 March to get a deal through parliament. Assuming the bill passes through parliament (a big if, given the difficulty it might have in the Lords, where bills cannot be rushed through), if the PM has not got a deal through parliament by 13 March, MPs would either have to vote to agree a no-deal Brexit - or else they would have to vote to require the PM to seek an extension of article 50.
    It would be up to the government to decide how long the article 50 extension it would request would be. (Cooper’s previous bill on this specified a nine-month extension.)
    Cooper is proposing the amendment and the bill with the Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin.
    Caroline Spelman, the Conservative MP who tabled the non-binding amendment rejecting a no-deal Brexit that was passed by MPs two weeks ago, has said she will back the bill. She did not vote for the Cooper amendment two weeks ago and her endorsement is significant because it suggests Cooper’s new amendment will get wider Tory support than her previous one, which was backed by 17 Tories.


    Surprisingly little reporting on this.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,618
    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,193

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    The scientific data though once adjusted had the Tories winning 45 to 50s+
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,193
    edited February 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kjohnw said:

    What do PBrs think the odds of the new cooper/boles amendment passing?

    When is it due, and what does it say
    It’s here:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/12/brexit-latest-news-developmens-mays-statment-mps-need-to-hold-our-nerve-may-to-tell-mps-as-leadsom-hints-uk-softening-call-for-deal-to-be-rewritten-politics-live?page=with:block-5c6307dce4b042feedcbc84b#block-5c6307dce4b042feedcbc84b

    Cooper says she will press for a vote on an amendment creating time for her bill on Wednesday 27 February, if Theresa May has not passed a deal by then. That means 27 February is the next crunch deadline for the PM. Tory pro-Europeans who have not rebelled on this issue yet are hinting that they will rebel then to vote for the Cooper plan.
    Cooper and her allies are not proposing a vote this week on an amendment creating time for a bill designed to rule out a no-deal Brexit.
    The new Cooper bill would give May until Wednesday 13 March to get a deal through parliament. Assuming the bill passes through parliament (a big if, given the difficulty it might have in the Lords, where bills cannot be rushed through), if the PM has not got a deal through parliament by 13 March, MPs would either have to vote to agree a no-deal Brexit - or else they would have to vote to require the PM to seek an extension of article 50.
    It would be up to the government to decide how long the article 50 extension it would request would be. (Cooper’s previous bill on this specified a nine-month extension.)
    Cooper is proposing the amendment and the bill with the Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin.
    Caroline Spelman, the Conservative MP who tabled the non-binding amendment rejecting a no-deal Brexit that was passed by MPs two weeks ago, has said she will back the bill. She did not vote for the Cooper amendment two weeks ago and her endorsement is significant because it suggests Cooper’s new amendment will get wider Tory support than her previous one, which was backed by 17 Tories.


    Surprisingly little reporting on this.

    The key swing votes in the Commons are of course the 17 Tory rebels who voted to rule out No Deal, given the Commons voted 318 to 310 to reject No Deal thanks to their support if they swing behind Cooper Letwin and it passes if the Deal goes down again we will be heading for BINO not No Deal as the EU will likely demand permanent Customs Union for GB as the price of an extension of Article 50
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited February 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
    There has been an age difference for a while but it seems to have grown a hell of a lot recently.

    2005......Con....Lab

    18-24..... 28... 38
    25-34..... 25... 38
    35-44..... 27... 41
    45-54..... 31... 35
    55-64..... 39... 31
    65+........ 41... 35

    2010......Con....Lab

    18-24......30... 31
    25-34..... 35... 30
    35-44..... 34... 31
    45-54..... 34... 28
    55-64..... 38... 28
    65+........ 44... 31

    2015......Con....Lab

    18-24..... 27... 43
    25-34..... 33... 36
    35-44..... 35... 35
    45-54..... 36... 33
    55-64..... 37... 31
    65+........ 47... 23

    2017......Con....Lab

    18-24..... 27... 62
    25-34..... 27... 56
    35-44..... 33... 49
    45-54..... 43... 40
    55-64..... 51... 34
    65+........ 61... 25

    Going by the YouGov poll earlier even the 55-64 block must be levelling up. There are a lot of younger voters who the Tories are toxic too and without the party changing over the next few years that people become more right wing as they get older is going to be tested to destruction. Can't really be hoping to win majorities relying that heavily on people at retirement age.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,193


    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
    There has been an age difference for a while but it seems to have grown a hell of a lot recently.

    2005......Con....Lab

    18-24 28 38
    25-34 25 38
    35-44 27 41
    45-54 31 35
    55-64 39 31
    65+ 41 35

    2010......Con....Lab

    18-24 30 31
    25-34 35 30
    35-44 34 31
    45-54 34 28
    55-64 38 28
    65+ 44 31

    2015......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 43
    25-34 33 36
    35-44 35 35
    45-54 36 33
    55-64 37 31
    65+ 47 23

    2017......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 62
    25-34 27 56
    35-44 33 49
    45-54 43 40
    55-64 51 34
    65+ 61 25

    Going by the YouGov poll earlier even the 55-64 block must be levelling up. There are a lot of younger voters who the Tories are toxic too and without the party changing over the next few years that people become more right wing as they get older is going to be tested to destruction. Can't really be hoping to win majorities relying that heavily on people at retirement age.
    Given you cannot vote until 18 and average life expectancy is about 82 the median voter is 50, the Tories won 45-54 year olds in 2017
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:


    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    There has been an age difference for a while but it seems to have grown a hell of a lot recently.

    2005......Con....Lab

    18-24 28 38
    25-34 25 38
    35-44 27 41
    45-54 31 35
    55-64 39 31
    65+ 41 35

    2010......Con....Lab

    18-24 30 31
    25-34 35 30
    35-44 34 31
    45-54 34 28
    55-64 38 28
    65+ 44 31

    2015......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 43
    25-34 33 36
    35-44 35 35
    45-54 36 33
    55-64 37 31
    65+ 47 23

    2017......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 62
    25-34 27 56
    35-44 33 49
    45-54 43 40
    55-64 51 34
    65+ 61 25

    Going by the YouGov poll earlier even the 55-64 block must be levelling up. There are a lot of younger voters who the Tories are toxic too and without the party changing over the next few years that people become more right wing as they get older is going to be tested to destruction. Can't really be hoping to win majorities relying that heavily on people at retirement age.
    Given you cannot vote until 18 and average life expectancy is about 82 the median voter is 50, the Tories won 45-54 year olds in 2017
    I did them all from ISPOS-MORI how britain voted 20XX maybe should have picked a different source but their consistent source at least. I do remember hearing a cross over age of 47 last election which would have the Tories ahead in 45-54 year olds.

    Although turnout could change where the average age of a voter is.

    The basic point of having to appeal to younger voters at some point in the future still stands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,193
    edited February 2019

    HYUFD said:


    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    There has been an age difference for a while but it seems to have grown a hell of a lot recently.

    2005......Con....Lab

    18-24 28 38
    25-34 25 38
    35-44 27 41
    45-54 31 35
    55-64 39 31
    65+ 41 35

    2010......Con....Lab

    18-24 30 31
    25-34 35 30
    35-44 34 31
    45-54 34 28
    55-64 38 28
    65+ 44 31

    2015......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 43
    25-34 33 36
    35-44 35 35
    45-54 36 33
    55-64 37 31
    65+ 47 23

    2017......Con....Lab

    18-24 27 62
    25-34 27 56
    35-44 33 49
    45-54 43 40
    55-64 51 34
    65+ 61 25

    Going by the YouGov poll earlier even the 55-64 block must be levelling up. There are a lot of younger voters who the Tories are toxic too and without the party changing over the next few years that people become more right wing as they get older is going to be tested to destruction. Can't really be hoping to win majorities relying that heavily on people at retirement age.
    Given you cannot vote until 18 and average life expectancy is about 82 the median voter is 50, the Tories won 45-54 year olds in 2017
    I did them all from ISPOS-MORI how britain voted 20XX maybe should have picked a different source but their consistent source at least. I do remember hearing a cross over age of 47 last election which would have the Tories ahead in 45-54 year olds.

    Although turnout could change where the average age of a voter is.

    The basic point of having to appeal to younger voters at some point in the future still stands.
    The Tories have not won 18 to 24s since 1983 but won most seats in 5 elections since and majorities in 3. The Tories could win a majority at a general election without winning majorities in any group under 45, it is middle aged voters 50 to 65 the Tories need to win given they have won pensioners at every general election bar 1997 in the last few decades
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    My comments from the YouGov age gap earlier and my recent ISPOS posts are more looking to the future (10-20 years) and saying the Tories will have to seriously shift towards the younger voters as the baby boomer generation loses electoral power. With the numbers as they are it looks like it will take more than just becoming more right wing with age. A small age gap can be smoothed out over time with small adjustments but the current one looks a bit more tricky.

    Just to note this isn't claiming the Conservatives are doomed or anything silly, just will be a tricky period IMO and there does seem to be a real values shift over a couple of generations that will be awkward to bridge.
  • nico67 said:

    The political declaration isn’t legally binding so it’s irrelevant what that says re future customs arrangements .

    It’s likely May will step down in the summer to be replaced by a hardline Brexiteer who will ditch the political declaration anyway .

    That’s why any assurances by May about workers rights etc are worthless . Any Labour MP buying into her faux concern for workers needs their head tested .

    If only March 29 was the end of this fiasco . Brexit and its fall out will go on and on .

    And the chaos in the UK over the last two years is a good example to other EU nations of what to expect if any other country decides to go down this route .

    UK negotiators have failed because they stupidly ignored that Brexit was a political project and yet expected the EU to view the negotiations in a different way .

    The EU has never been just about economics , and that’s in a sense why we got to the Leave vote but it’s the very thing that also stops the EU from doing what’s just in their economic interest .

    UK politicians fail to understand that Tusks emotional outbursts over the last few years come from his total belief in the EU project , just as those on the other side of the debate in the UK passionately believe in leaving .

    You either get it or you don’t . I get Tusk because I get the EU , imperfect but at its heart a positive force .

    Every time I cross a different border in the EU and see those stars welcoming me to another wonderful EU country I smile .

    And every time I hear Ode To Joy my spirits soar .

    Hopefully one day in the near future the UK returns to its place at the heart of Europe. Until then so long UK .

    You annoyed the hell out of the rest of the EU but you will be missed .

    If seeing a flag and hearing a bit of Beethoven (and by no means his best bit) makes your heart soar then you desperately need to get a life...or get laid... or anything that actually means something.

    It is the equivalent of admitting you get a hard on from seeing a party political broadcast.
    It has the opposite effect on me.

    The headmaster of my school was a hardcore europhile, flew the EU flag from our school mast, and made us sing that as our “school anthem”.

    In German.
  • nico67 said:

    The political declaration isn’t legally binding so it’s irrelevant what that says re future customs arrangements .

    It’s likely May will step down in the summer to be replaced by a hardline Brexiteer who will ditch the political declaration anyway .

    That’s why any assurances by May about workers rights etc are worthless . Any Labour MP buying into her faux concern for workers needs their head tested .

    If only March 29 was the end of this fiasco . Brexit and its fall out will go on and on .

    And the chaos in the UK over the last two years is a good example to other EU nations of what to expect if any other country decides to go down this route .

    UK negotiators have failed because they stupidly ignored that Brexit was a political project and yet expected the EU to view the negotiations in a different way .

    The EU has never been just about economics , and that’s in a sense why we got to the Leave vote but it’s the very thing that also stops the EU from doing what’s just in their economic interest .

    UK politicians fail to understand that Tusks emotional outbursts over the last few years come from his total belief in the EU project , just as those on the other side of the debate in the UK passionately believe in leaving .

    You either get it or you don’t . I get Tusk because I get the EU , imperfect but at its heart a positive force .

    Every time I cross a different border in the EU and see those stars welcoming me to another wonderful EU country I smile .

    And every time I hear Ode To Joy my spirits soar .

    Hopefully one day in the near future the UK returns to its place at the heart of Europe. Until then so long UK .

    You annoyed the hell out of the rest of the EU but you will be missed .

    If seeing a flag and hearing a bit of Beethoven (and by no means his best bit) makes your heart soar then you desperately need to get a life...or get laid... or anything that actually means something.

    It is the equivalent of admitting you get a hard on from seeing a party political broadcast.
    More seriously, no one who has watched the three excellent programmes on the ten years of EU crisis and has seen the utterly shameful and disgusting attitude the EU leaders have towards democracy should be in any doubt that the EU is a force for evil, not good.
    Those programmes made me even more eurosceptic, and I tried to approach them with an open mind. The behaviour of the EU was absolutely shocking.

    Only think I would say is I came out with a little bit more respect for Tusk, a little bit. But contempt for everyone else and David Cameron looked like he’d rather be anywhere else on earth during the EU27 European Council meetings, and I can’t say I blame him.
  • HYUFD said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    The scientific data though once adjusted had the Tories winning 45 to 50s+
    I’d say the Tories are forever going to struggle with the under 35s but they should really be doing better with the 35-50 age group, which represent established families.

    From the point of view of domestic policy, that’s what I’d focus on.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,618
    The Australian government has lost a vote in Parliament for the first time in 80 years.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-13/senate-passes-controversial-refugee-evacuation-bill/10806196
  • young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    HYUFD said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    The scientific data though once adjusted had the Tories winning 45 to 50s+
    I’d say the Tories are forever going to struggle with the under 35s but they should really be doing better with the 35-50 age group, which represent established families.

    From the point of view of domestic policy, that’s what I’d focus on.
    But isn’t that the problem? That set of people have done incredibly well since 2008 due to ultra low interest rates.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    Except for the DUP, payments to Labour leave constituencies, and ferries
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Steven Barclay showing signs of a bunker mentality on R4 this morning.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,618
    O/T

    This is an excellent YouTube channel for those interested in UK politics.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7oPkqeHTwuOZ5CZ-R9f-6w/videos
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,730

    nico67 said:

    The political declaration isn’t legally binding so it’s irrelevant what that says re future customs arrangements .

    It’s likely May will step down in the summer to be replaced by a hardline Brexiteer who will ditch the political declaration anyway .

    That’s why any assurances by May about workers rights etc are worthless . Any Labour MP buying into her faux concern for workers needs their head tested .

    If only March 29 was the end of this fiasco . Brexit and its fall out will go on and on .

    And the chaos in the UK over the last two years is a good example to other EU nations of what to expect if any other country decides to go down this route .

    UK negotiators have failed because they stupidly ignored that Brexit was a political project and yet expected the EU to view the negotiations in a different way .

    The EU has never been just about economics , and that’s in a sense why we got to the Leave vote but it’s the very thing that also stops the EU from doing what’s just in their economic interest .

    UK politicians fail to understand that Tusks emotional outbursts over the last few years come from his total belief in the EU project , just as those on the other side of the debate in the UK passionately believe in leaving .

    You either get it or you don’t . I get Tusk because I get the EU , imperfect but at its heart a positive force .

    Every time I cross a different border in the EU and see those stars welcoming me to another wonderful EU country I smile .

    And every time I hear Ode To Joy my spirits soar .

    Hopefully one day in the near future the UK returns to its place at the heart of Europe. Until then so long UK .

    You annoyed the hell out of the rest of the EU but you will be missed .

    If seeing a flag and hearing a bit of Beethoven (and by no means his best bit) makes your heart soar then you desperately need to get a life...or get laid... or anything that actually means something.

    It is the equivalent of admitting you get a hard on from seeing a party political broadcast.
    It has the opposite effect on me.

    The headmaster of my school was a hardcore europhile, flew the EU flag from our school mast, and made us sing that as our “school anthem”.

    In German.
    A private school?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    More seriously, no one who has watched the three excellent programmes on the ten years of EU crisis and has seen the utterly shameful and disgusting attitude the EU leaders have towards democracy should be in any doubt that the EU is a force for evil, not good.

    Those programmes made me even more eurosceptic, and I tried to approach them with an open mind. The behaviour of the EU was absolutely shocking.

    Only think I would say is I came out with a little bit more respect for Tusk, a little bit. But contempt for everyone else and David Cameron looked like he’d rather be anywhere else on earth during the EU27 European Council meetings, and I can’t say I blame him.
    What were these programmes and where can I view them?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited February 2019

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875

    Foxy said:

    Anyone got any idea why the FSTE is holding up so well, given all the Brexit uncertainty?

    I can't think it's the prospect of bright sunlit uplands.

    Well, the outlook for the FTSE100 is probably fairly Brexit neutral overall. If we crash out in chaos, the pound will collapse and all those foreign earnings will be worth more in sterling terms. Conversely if some kind of sensible transition is agreed (let alone revocation or delay for a referendum), the pound will rise but that will be offset by a big surge of relief and renewed confidence in the UK market. For that reason, my personal view is that FTSE100 trackers (which I wouldn't normally invest in, because the FTSE100 is such a bizarre, unbalanced, and over-concentrated index) are rather attractive at the moment.

    For the smaller companies, more tied to the UK economy, the outlook is binary: crash out bad, deal or delay or revocation good. The market price is the weighted average of the two outcomes (overlaid of course on other factors). It's a risky play investing in the UK economy, but it could be a very profitable one if we don't crash out.
    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Surprisingly mild outside. Makes a nice change from a couple of weeks ago, when it was below zero for about 12 hours in a row.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited February 2019
    No need to worry about Farage leaving the Euroe Parlt the Iralians are taking his place as chief Verhofstadt baiters.

    https://www.lastampa.it/2019/02/13/esteri/strasburgo-processa-conte-burattino-e-lui-si-sfoga-parafulmine-dei-miei-vice-UDIi1oJvDJkcVaN8Hv78LM/pagina.html

    Guy joins in for old time sake
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Good morning, everyone.

    Surprisingly mild outside. Makes a nice change from a couple of weeks ago, when it was below zero for about 12 hours in a row.

    it was 1c at 6am chez moi.. mild by comparison, but not mild.. its 3c now
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2019
    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Anyone got any idea why the FSTE is holding up so well, given all the Brexit uncertainty?

    I can't think it's the prospect of bright sunlit uplands.

    Well, the outlook for the FTSE100 is probably fairly Brexit neutral overall. If we crash out in chaos, the pound will collapse and all those foreign earnings will be worth more in sterling terms. Conversely if some kind of sensible transition is agreed (let alone revocation or delay for a referendum), the pound will rise but that will be offset by a big surge of relief and renewed confidence in the UK market. For that reason, my personal view is that FTSE100 trackers (which I wouldn't normally invest in, because the FTSE100 is such a bizarre, unbalanced, and over-concentrated index) are rather attractive at the moment.

    For the smaller companies, more tied to the UK economy, the outlook is binary: crash out bad, deal or delay or revocation good. The market price is the weighted average of the two outcomes (overlaid of course on other factors). It's a risky play investing in the UK economy, but it could be a very profitable one if we don't crash out.
    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
    If your fund managers are moving your pension investments around like that, based on their view of the short run outlook, then as a trusteee you should be (and are legally required to) asking some serious questions about whether you have the right managers, and/or the right strategy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Freggles said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    Except for the DUP, payments to Labour leave constituencies, and ferries
    And pensioners. Ironically, the older their tired limbs get, the more adept they seem to become at shaking that mony tree....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    I don't think the kind of person who wants to work hard and get on has anything in common with the Tories.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
    That’s not actually true. Not carrying tens of thousands of pounds of student debt is worth voting for.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article (£):


    "Winston Churchill was a racist but still a great man

    Daniel Finkelstein

    It’s right to re-examine historical figures but acknowledging their flaws shouldn’t prevent them being seen as heroes"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

    Based on today's standards everyone would have been a racist in those days, pathetic whataboutery to look back and apply different standards to the past. Will they be saying we should go back to horses and carts next.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Anyone got any idea why the FSTE is holding up so well, given all the Brexit uncertainty?

    I can't think it's the prospect of bright sunlit uplands.

    in sterling terms. Conversely if some kind of sensible transition is agreed (let alone revocation or delay for a referendum), the pound will rise but that will be offset by a big surge of relief and renewed confidence in the UK market. For that reason, my personal view is that FTSE100 trackers (which I wouldn't normally invest in, because the FTSE100 is such a bizarre, unbalanced, and over-concentrated index) are rather attractive at the moment.

    For the smaller companies, more tied to the UK economy, the outlook is binary: crash out bad, deal or delay or revocation good. The market price is the weighted average of the two outcomes (overlaid of course on other factors). It's a risky play investing in the UK economy, but it could be a very profitable one if we don't crash out.
    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
    If your fund managers are moving your pension investments around like that, based on their view of the short run outlook, then as a trusteee you should be (and are legally required to) asking some serious questions about whether you have the right managers, and/or the right strategy.
    Not if it’s a few percentage points within their bands that the trustees will have agreed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
  • nico67 said:

    The political declaration isn’t legally binding so it’s irrelevant what that says re future customs arrangements .

    It’s likely May will step down in the summer to be replaced by a hardline Brexiteer who will ditch the political declaration anyway .

    That’s why any assurances by May about workers rights etc are worthless . Any Labour MP buying into her faux concern for workers needs their head tested .

    If only March 29 was the end of this fiasco . Brexit and its fall out will go on and on .

    And the chaos in the UK over the last two years is a good example to other EU nations of what to expect if any other country decides to go down this route .

    UK negotiators have failed because they stupidly ignored that Brexit was a political project and yet expected the EU to view the negotiations in a different way .

    The EU has never been just about economics , and that’s in a sense why we got to the Leave vote but it’s the very thing that also stops the EU from doing what’s just in their economic interest .

    UK politicians fail to understand that Tusks emotional outbursts over the last few years come from his total belief in the EU project , just as those on the other side of the debate in the UK passionately believe in leaving .

    You either get it or you don’t . I get Tusk because I get the EU , imperfect but at its heart a positive force .

    Every time I cross a different border in the EU and see those stars welcoming me to another wonderful EU country I smile .

    And every time I hear Ode To Joy my spirits soar .

    Hopefully one day in the near future the UK returns to its place at the heart of Europe. Until then so long UK .

    You annoyed the hell out of the rest of the EU but you will be missed .

    If seeing a flag and hearing a bit of Beethoven (and by no means his best bit) makes your heart soar then you desperately need to get a life...or get laid... or anything that actually means something.

    It is the equivalent of admitting you get a hard on from seeing a party political broadcast.
    It has the opposite effect on me.

    The headmaster of my school was a hardcore europhile, flew the EU flag from our school mast, and made us sing that as our “school anthem”.

    In German.
    A private school?
    Yes.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
    That’s not actually true. Not carrying tens of thousands of pounds of student debt is worth voting for.
    And who is going to pay for it.. There is no magic money tree.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article (£):


    "Winston Churchill was a racist but still a great man

    Daniel Finkelstein

    It’s right to re-examine historical figures but acknowledging their flaws shouldn’t prevent them being seen as heroes"

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/churchill-was-a-racist-but-still-a-great-man-vnhkhfnpm

    Based on today's standards everyone would have been a racist in those days, pathetic whataboutery to look back and apply different standards to the past. Will they be saying we should go back to horses and carts next.
    I'm sure most of us would wince now if confronted with our younger selves laughing at what passed for humour back then. Should we beat ourselves up about it now?

    The point is, we've progressed.
  • Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.

    Labour has, but has come to all the wrong conclusions. This means the Tories have no incentive to look at things themselves. The fact that the disaster capitalists who funded the Leave campaigns will make themselves even richer from No Deal’s outcomes, while millions of ordinary people lose out, tells you all you need to know about how screwed things are.

  • Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.

    Yawn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
    If your fund managers are moving your pension investments around like that, based on their view of the short run outlook, then as a trusteee you should be (and are legally required to) asking some serious questions about whether you have the right managers, and/or the right strategy.
    It's a question of weighting. But they certainly do view bonds as the better option at present. Partly as a result of their efforts our pension fund is in surplus and we are looking to derisk the fund going forward matching bonds against the anticipated retirement dates of members. Buying bonds is a part of that strategy. I am very comfortable with their performance.
  • tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    The scientific data though once adjusted had the Tories winning 45 to 50s+
    I’d say the Tories are forever going to struggle with the under 35s but they should really be doing better with the 35-50 age group, which represent established families.

    From the point of view of domestic policy, that’s what I’d focus on.
    But isn’t that the problem? That set of people have done incredibly well since 2008 due to ultra low interest rates.
    They have, but they don’t associate that with the Conservative administration.

    They will be interested in nursery fees, secondary education, fees for tertiary education - for their children - the NHS for their families, and social care for their parents.

    At present, Corbyn offers lots from the magic money tree on that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Sorry, but that's UKIP.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
    That’s not actually true. Not carrying tens of thousands of pounds of student debt is worth voting for.
    And who is going to pay for it.. There is no magic money tree.
    The U.K. is not so weak that it cannot pay to educate its young people. No need to shake the Tory Magic Money tree, which is already a bit threadbare due to Brexit. If we can pay for Brexit we can do this.

    We do not need to invent new money here, the Tories currently place the entire burden on the next generation. What we need to do is spread the burden across society . My generation benefited from a generous older generation that valued education. We can do the same.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Sorry, but that's UKIP.
    Have you seen the Mogg?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
    That’s not actually true. Not carrying tens of thousands of pounds of student debt is worth voting for.
    And who is going to pay for it.. There is no magic money tree.
    The U.K. is not so weak that it cannot pay to educate its young people. No need to shake the Tory Magic Money tree, which is already a bit threadbare due to Brexit. If we can pay for Brexit we can do this.

    We do not need to invent new money here, the Tories currently place the entire burden on the next generation. What we need to do is spread the burden across society . My generation benefited from a generous older generation that valued education. We can do the same.
    No we are fucked because of Gordon Brown's mismanagement of the economy which will take 50 yrs to overcome, bar another loon like Brown.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Sorry, but that's UKIP.
    Have you seen the Mogg?
    The Mogg is Catholic. He won't be doing the "funny handshake"s thing.....
  • young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    Anyone who is quite entrepreneurial is looking at a government that is recklessly playing ducks and drakes with business to pursue as extreme a version of Brexit as it can muster and then running a thousand miles away.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Sorry, but that's UKIP.
    Have you seen the Mogg?
    The Mogg is Catholic. He won't be doing the "funny handshake"s thing.....
    The difference between UKIP and the Tories these days reminds me of the end of Animal Farm when it was no longer possible to tell the pigs apart from the farmers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
    If your fund managers are moving your pension investments around like that, based on their view of the short run outlook, then as a trusteee you should be (and are legally required to) asking some serious questions about whether you have the right managers, and/or the right strategy.
    It's a question of weighting. But they certainly do view bonds as the better option at present. Partly as a result of their efforts our pension fund is in surplus and we are looking to derisk the fund going forward matching bonds against the anticipated retirement dates of members. Buying bonds is a part of that strategy. I am very comfortable with their performance.
    Can you PM me who you work with?. We are repitching one of the charities I’m involved in as the IMs have been woeful
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    Anyone who is quite entrepreneurial is looking at a government that is recklessly playing ducks and drakes with business to pursue as extreme a version of Brexit as it can muster and then running a thousand miles away.
    Brexit Tories = “fuck business”
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
    Absolutely. Why spend 8 billion quid tarting something up that isn't fit for purpose? Spend just enough on a new parliament with a Premier Inn standard hotel on the same site. They could have a decent canteen but no bars. It would save the country a fortune.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Ford on its way out in the event of no deal .

    But hey who needs high skilled jobs , just believe more in Brexit and everything will work out wonderful!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    You missed out the bit that Corbyn offers nothing except misery
    That’s not actually true. Not carrying tens of thousands of pounds of student debt is worth voting for.
    And who is going to pay for it.. There is no magic money tree.
    If Corbyn wants to go full Venezuela... potentially Erudio.
  • My comments from the YouGov age gap earlier and my recent ISPOS posts are more looking to the future (10-20 years) and saying the Tories will have to seriously shift towards the younger voters as the baby boomer generation loses electoral power. With the numbers as they are it looks like it will take more than just becoming more right wing with age. A small age gap can be smoothed out over time with small adjustments but the current one looks a bit more tricky.

    Just to note this isn't claiming the Conservatives are doomed or anything silly, just will be a tricky period IMO and there does seem to be a real values shift over a couple of generations that will be awkward to bridge.

    More desperate stuff from a Corbyn apologist, hoping against hope that eventually todays young people are still gullible enough to support Mr Thicky or his ideological spawn in 10 years or so. Corbyn's ideas are as bankrupt as he would make the country, and people are beginning to catch up with this. The fact that the numpty is unable to maintain even a paltry lead in the polls against a government as feeble as this one must make moderate Labour supporters, and those of us who believe in the necessity of a strong opposition, weep
  • Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    Anyone who is quite entrepreneurial is looking at a government that is recklessly playing ducks and drakes with business to pursue as extreme a version of Brexit as it can muster and then running a thousand miles away.
    Brexit Tories = “fuck business”
    Bang on cue, an article about business leaders being horrified by the Conservatives:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/12/uk-business-leaders-seek-answers-from-may-over-tariffs-and-trade?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1550045414
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Sorry, but that's UKIP.
    Have you seen the Mogg?
    The Mogg is Catholic. He won't be doing the "funny handshake"s thing.....
    He does a different type of "handshake" but only when his wife and nanny aren't looking
  • It's not fashionable to talk about the debt or deficit any more, but debt interest payments are still £50bn, aren't they?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    It's not fashionable to talk about the debt or deficit any more, but debt interest payments are still £50bn, aren't they?

    That stuff went out of the window with Brexit.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,057
    Jonathan said:

    It's not fashionable to talk about the debt or deficit any more, but debt interest payments are still £50bn, aren't they?

    That stuff went out of the window with Brexit.
    The lack of evidence that high levels of debt do any long-term economic damage as long as the borrowing is in your own currency also helped.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
    Absolutely. Why spend 8 billion quid tarting something up that isn't fit for purpose? Spend just enough on a new parliament with a Premier Inn standard hotel on the same site. They could have a decent canteen but no bars. It would save the country a fortune.
    Loughborough would be the ideal location for the new Parliament building :)
  • Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    Anyone who is quite entrepreneurial is looking at a government that is recklessly playing ducks and drakes with business to pursue as extreme a version of Brexit as it can muster and then running a thousand miles away.
    Brexit Tories = “fuck business”

    Brexit Tories say: “fuck business"
    Labour/Momentum say: "fuck business"

    Businesses say: "fuck Britain"
    Britain says: "were fucked"



  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
    The data shows that the Tories move ahead around age 60, which is when most people start to think about retirement, even if like me they carry on indefinitely. Historically people have always got more Tory as they got older, but like The Jezziah I wonder if that's still true. Being anti-Tory has become a cultural thing, like not making jokes about gay people, and while I know plenty of people in my generation who are not enamoured of Labour and are floating around despondently, many of them say they simply won't vote Tory because they view them as culturally alien.

    This has to be qualified by the fact that we mostly move in like-minded circles - I don't know any retired bankers or fishermen, to take two random examples. But I do have a fairly ecumenical mix of acquaintances, partly through my past work and partly through working connections.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited February 2019
    .
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    edited February 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
    The data shows that the Tories move ahead around age 60, which is when most people start to think about retirement, even if like me they carry on indefinitely. Historically people have always got more Tory as they got older, but like The Jezziah I wonder if that's still true. Being anti-Tory has become a cultural thing, like not making jokes about gay people, and while I know plenty of people in my generation who are not enamoured of Labour and are floating around despondently, many of them say they simply won't vote Tory because they view them as culturally alien.

    This has to be qualified by the fact that we mostly move in like-minded circles - I don't know any retired bankers or fishermen, to take two random examples. But I do have a fairly ecumenical mix of acquaintances, partly through my past work and partly through working connections.
    But parties can be decontaminated. How long will the rotten stench of anti-semitism hang around labour when Corbyn eventually stops being leader and is replaced by someone like Starmer or Cooper? I suspect not long. You can lead an organisation and change it from the top.

    The same with May’s overt authoritarianism and dislike of migration across the board. What if she’s replaced with someone more like Cameron. Someone like Rory Stewart. Open thinking, rational and utterly pleasant

    The tories went from “are you thinking what we are thinking” so legalising gay marriage in a single leader change.
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
    Absolutely. Why spend 8 billion quid tarting something up that isn't fit for purpose? Spend just enough on a new parliament with a Premier Inn standard hotel on the same site. They could have a decent canteen but no bars. It would save the country a fortune.
    Loughborough would be the ideal location for the new Parliament building :)
    What's not to like? It's central, excellent travel links and plenty of empty shops and derelict land that could do with a share of that 8 billion quid Westminster slush fund. Trouble is, all the rich politicos get a nose bleed if they stray too far north.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    The FTSE small cap and FTSE 250 have more UK companies and have followed a similar curve. Down a bit over recent months, but up over 2 years. It is a combination of foreign earnings, Sterling depreciation, bravado about a Deal, and genuine value searching.

    Mostly though it is because people have to put their money somewhere. Interest rates are still on the floor, and housing bubble looks likely to deflate, so equities dont look so bad. My own are in a mixture of cash, defensive stocks and a few companies resilient to Brexit. I followed a similar strategy in Spring 2016, and bought back some of my more volatile stocks during the dip. I did pretty well.
    Indeed. Bonds are about to tank too I suspect. Much of my smallish pot is currently in US stocks on the basis that if the pound drops sharply their relative value will strengthen. If we avoid no deal and the pound rises I'll take the hit for the relief of not seeing the UK trashed.
    Bonds had a very disappointing Q4 but have bounced back a bit since. The fund managers of the pension fund I am a trustee of think that has a way to go yet and has indeed moved funds from equities to bonds in anticipation.

    I'd be interested to know why you thought differently.
    If your fund managers are moving your pension investments around like that, based on their view of the short run outlook, then as a trusteee you should be (and are legally required to) asking some serious questions about whether you have the right managers, and/or the right strategy.
    It's a question of weighting. But they certainly do view bonds as the better option at present. Partly as a result of their efforts our pension fund is in surplus and we are looking to derisk the fund going forward matching bonds against the anticipated retirement dates of members. Buying bonds is a part of that strategy. I am very comfortable with their performance.
    Can you PM me who you work with?. We are repitching one of the charities I’m involved in as the IMs have been woeful
    Message sent.
  • Andy_JS said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    From the recent big YouGov poll which had the Tories 6-7 points ahead and gaining a few seats.

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1095410278018281477

    Probably help explains why the warnings of job losses aren't harming the Tories too much.

    Indeed. The right is popular among those who don’t work. I suspect you’d find that table also mapped pretty well to Leave support. The generational split is utterly toxic.
    There's always been a big generation split, (which data back to 1990 doesn't show very well because that period was an exception). At the October 1974 election, for instance, the Tories came third behind the Liberals with young voters.
    The data shows that the Tories move ahead around age 60, which is when most people start to think about retirement, even if like me they carry on indefinitely. Historically people have always got more Tory as they got older, but like The Jezziah I wonder if that's still true. Being anti-Tory has become a cultural thing, like not making jokes about gay people, and while I know plenty of people in my generation who are not enamoured of Labour and are floating around despondently, many of them say they simply won't vote Tory because they view them as culturally alien.

    This has to be qualified by the fact that we mostly move in like-minded circles - I don't know any retired bankers or fishermen, to take two random examples. But I do have a fairly ecumenical mix of acquaintances, partly through my past work and partly through working connections.
    How many straws can you clutch at to try and avoid the truth? Your party is led by a numpty who is so unelectable and incompetent that he is unable to land a glove, let alone hold a consistent opinion poll lead, on the worst and most divided government in our recent political history. The only thing more absurd than Theresa May and the Brexiteers at the moment is Jeremy Corbyn and his Maduro sympathising cronies. You clearly are not stupid, so please stop apologising for him.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
    Absolutely. Why spend 8 billion quid tarting something up that isn't fit for purpose? Spend just enough on a new parliament with a Premier Inn standard hotel on the same site. They could have a decent canteen but no bars. It would save the country a fortune.
    Loughborough would be the ideal location for the new Parliament building :)
    No doubt all the MPs would be living on the Forest Side.

    (Sorry folks, a little in joke for comrades familiar with Loobrush)
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    young people seem to believe that the magic money tree exists.. as they get older, they realise it doesn't.

    The Tories need to speak to their strengths to a younger audience.

    I believe most want to work hard, get on, get a house, exercise choice and be as independent as they can be. Many are quite entrepreneurial.

    The trouble is that’s very difficult these days - with high debts, high house prices, and a limited number of decently paying jobs - so Labour is attracting them instead.
    If you want to work hard, get on, raise a family and play by the rules this Tory Party offers nothing.

    If you are an ideological nationalist with a interest in nostalgia, like double breasted jackets, old school ties and funny handshakes then it’s the party for you.
    Working hard and playing by the rules no longer work, the current version of capitalism is flawed and none of the parties have thought how to deal with it.
    The nepotism and old school ties that infect Westminster parties actively damage their ability to help others. Few of them know what hard work and playing things straight actually look like. How can they find policies that promote it?
    Its why the politcal system needed a shock. It might not fix things but at least it gives us all a chance.
    If the Brexit saga proves anything it is that the whole stinking edifice needs to be torn down. I would start by closing Westminster, a building that encourages closed, remote behaviour. We don’t need a Parliament that resembles an Oxford college. It brings out the worst in them. Turn that into a museum.
    Absolutely. Why spend 8 billion quid tarting something up that isn't fit for purpose? Spend just enough on a new parliament with a Premier Inn standard hotel on the same site. They could have a decent canteen but no bars. It would save the country a fortune.
    Loughborough would be the ideal location for the new Parliament building :)
    No doubt all the MPs would be living on the Forest Side.

    (Sorry folks, a little in joke for comrades familiar with Loobrush)
    Nah, they'll all end up in Rutland.
  • nico67 said:

    Ford on its way out in the event of no deal .

    But hey who needs high skilled jobs , just believe more in Brexit and everything will work out wonderful!

    "We've had enough of jobs"
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I'm in favour of moving parliament to a cheaper and more central location, would be a boost for somewhere outside of London.
This discussion has been closed.