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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters
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Surely that Robbins thing was deliberate, a bit like leaving notes visible when walking up Downing Street.
I am a humble B2B journalist of some 27 years standing. I would be very uneasy running a story about the contents of what was clearly a private conversation occuring in a bar at the end of a long day. It doesn’t seem right to me. Maybe that’s why I’m B2B!!
https://marqueemark123.imgur.com/all/?third_party=1
The ERG and the thick drones who follow them have spent the last two years being outraged and angry on a regular basis .
Just imagine if they had lost the EU ref .
The key name on there is Caroline Spelman , she and Dromey put that no to no deal amendment which won a majority but she didn’t support the original Cooper amendment .
She has already put her name on that now and isn’t one of the more pro Remain wing , she’s just really worried about no deal . It doesn’t put how long the extension might be , of course if May was even more demented than we thought she’d do something stupid like say can I have a week and the EU would tell her to do one .
I think Cooper has realized it needs a good majority and it might also reduce the Labour rebels who voted against her previous amendment .
I can't speak for Tim Farron, but someone as liberal as Kenneth Clarke voted against the the Sexual Orientation Regulations, for fear that they would restrict free speech, and close Catholic adoption agencies.
So did these adoption agencies close when the regulations passed?
A friend of a friend who was a right-leaning journalist asked if he could use that for a story showing the human side of Blair, whereas he usually wrote anti pieces.
I said no because if it had been a story showing Blair in a bad light I would also have refused.
(just to be clear I think very highly of Mr Meeks, and I also have some limited regard for Christianity)
So did these adoption agencies close when the regulations passed?
Yes.
I would guess he works for a trade journal, or similar.
This person is invented.
It is within the bounds of possibility, she'll opt for No Deal.
Where I think there are loopholes are where the EU proposes an extension FIRST and if the EU proposes a different extension date and parliament agrees, I don't think Cooper has made that binding. But IANAL just a pedant. (are lawyers just well-paid pedants?)
Destroying the country will not see a united Tory party rewarded at the ballot box
It's clearly crap.
I'd have run it, without question. With great power comes great responsibility: someone as powerful as Robbins must have known the chances of being overheard.
If it was someone without power leaking something important (say, an anecdote about a famous friend) in a way that could be traced back to them, I wouldn't. But Robbins has the fate of a nation in his hands and is paid accordingly.
(The nearest I ever came was when the chief exec of a large public sector organisation, who I knew to be a bit loose-lipped, had been booked to give a speech at a club dinner. I went along and sat at the back of the room, notebook in hand. We got three massive exclusives out of it and he was a good sport when I next met him, possibly because he knew I chose not to quote him saying that a certain other quango "couldn't run a whelk stall"...)
May only has bad choices left because she boxed herself in early. But it’s not just about the economy , people seem to assume the troubles in Northern Ireland are over but they’re still there bubbling below the surface . Can you imagine the furore there if not only they are taken out of the EU when they voted to Remain but on top of that were forced to accept no deal aswell.
Would May want that on her conscience , the PM who trashed the UK economy , lit a fuse in NI and also boosted Scottish Independence .
I'll be amazed if this match finishes eleven a side.
The only question left is for how long the country is prepared to tolerate No Deal.
Those close to Gove say he thinks the harder the Brexit the quicker we rejoin, which is fine by me.
It’s always tempting to look, and always the wrong thing to do
https://twitter.com/MailSport/status/1095427375628804096
Indeed. He doesn’t make any secret of his identity I don’t think?
Merkel has just met with the bosses of Ford and Opel who have told her that all plants in Germany will close as their largest most profitable market is now not in the EU. GDP is forceast to drop 5%+ YoY in Germany this year.
Merkel has requested emergency talks with the Prime Minister to try to salvage the dramatic drop in German goods exports to the UK.
Am I a fiction writer or a non-fiction writer?
He doesn’t even make a secret of his identity - he posts tweets of his on here under his real name.
You must be completely ignorant to have missed this in all the years you have have been posting on PB.
So a fiction writer.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/12/deal-no-deal-labour-tories-brexit-may-corbyn
https://twitter.com/MiguelDelaney/status/1095431594888826883
I'm sure you're right. How unpleasantly impolite though of you. I wonder how you've managed at all in life - it must be terribly hand-to-mouth.
On the substantive point about bar conversations, it’s not a classy look to lead with it in a first-person account of “my night in the pub”, IMO. Had he left it 48 hours, and slipped it halfway down as an aside (“Ollie Robbins, who’s told colleagues he believes the only options are...”), no-one would bat an eyelid. Not least as “Ollie Robbins doesn’t believe in No Deal” is hardly new.
Not at all.
You might do well to remind yourself that it was you that begun this discussion by accusing someone else of fabricating their own biographical details.
Worth a Lay for next manager?
The pointer was when Manchester United didn't let him sign anyone in the transfer window.
It would be unpredictable. That’s certainly one credible outcome but it’s far from the only one.
The other is that it further embitters the divide between the UK and EU, there is still no meeting of minds, a number of floating voters decide it’s a lost cause, blame both sides but decide the game is up, the UK further diversifies its markets more globally and takes a different regulatory path, as the EU does the same and federalises further.
Before too long things have moved on and it would be just as economically and politically disruptive to rejoin than to stay out.
The ERG aren't going to back it after this revelation.
https://twitter.com/Raphael_Hogarth/status/1095394943189827591
No chance now with Pogba missing in the second leg.
Normally that might not be a problem, but when you contrast it with the Leave prospectus, then voters will take it out on Leavers.
We hold all the cards, sunlit uplands, and rolling over all those deals one minute after Brexit will be the new 'We abolished boom and bust'.
Still, blue passports!
If that story had run today it’d have been more likely than not that it demonstrated his entitlement and privilege whilst trying to show he was a “man of the people”.
Obviously doing too well as a PL manager is a terrible thing, best to aim for consistent "never quite made it to the top, but doing ok" like Moyes at Everton.
Simple fact is Man United don't have as good a team as PSG at the moment.
You could say, “a few weekends ago I visited a pub in Ealing” or “last Tuesday I went to a cobblers in Kingsbury”, and he’d accuse you of making it all up.
When a Mercedes is sold in the UK, it adds more than twice as much to our GDP as theirs .
There will be 30-35% of the electorate that will be deeply dismayed about Brexit for quite some time to come.
What you have to worry about is the other 20-25% that might get you into a referendum winning zone of 50-55% for revocation right now, but might have moved on in 5 years time.
Success equals performance minus expectation.
If her actions had previously indicated she wanted no deal that would be another thing, even if it were a silly thing to want. But she worked damn hard to avoid it, but now is going for it while pretending she isn't.