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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of nex

SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange

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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Primo?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited February 2019
    I think laying 2022 is the way to play this market.
    (having backed 2022 a couple of weeks ago)
    There's way too many variables, and almost all of them go against the chances of a minority government lasting the full five year term.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Hard to argue...

    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1093456302657994753
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    EU still not listening...not brexit, the absolutely terrible article 13.

    After a short hiatus, discussions on the new EU copyright law proposals are moving forward again. France and Germany have reached a deal on which services should be bound to Article 13. Opponents fear that the plan will lead to broad upload filters, but the EU's copyright rapporteur notes that it's necessary to defend copyright holders from large US platforms
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1093454114959380480
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    rottenborough said:

    twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1093454114959380480

    Does jezza know about this hostage demand?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm a very happy layer of 2019. I expect I shall be a very happy layer of 2020. This Parliament looks to be going the distance to me. It isn't in the interests of a majority to hold an election early.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is a big problem for them

    https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1093461315467780096
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    From the other side

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1093461703201906689
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    EU still not listening...not brexit, the absolutely terrible article 13.

    After a short hiatus, discussions on the new EU copyright law proposals are moving forward again. France and Germany have reached a deal on which services should be bound to Article 13. Opponents fear that the plan will lead to broad upload filters, but the EU's copyright rapporteur notes that it's necessary to defend copyright holders from large US platforms

    This is almost justification for leaving the EU in itself. It shows them up for being the protectionist and inward-looking bunch of luddites that they are.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1093454114959380480

    Does jezza know about this hostage demand?
    Doubt it.

    Thursday is an allotment day isn't it, seeing as Wednesdays are so busy, what with PMQs and all that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    A story which combines two of PB's favourite topics:

    http://tinyurl.com/yb25qjv3

    The EU Commission has officially blocked a merger between Siemens and Alstom, stating that the companies “were not willing to address our serious competition concerns.”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited February 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

    I thought they were capturing the encrypted signal, then playing that same encrypted stream straight back to the car later, without having to decode it.

    I guess that's better than having the scrotes come through the door looking for the keys, or carjacking the wife as she arrives home?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    With politics I am normally a backer of things NOT happening. And I do think it marginally more likely than not that we get through 2019 without a general election. At current odds, however, I judge it as more of a back than a lay.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Scott_P said:

    From the other side

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1093461703201906689

    This is a pretty big shift by Corbyn and presumably reflects a calculation that the fence-sitting has become more damaging than facilitating a softer Brexit, though any form of ‘frustration’ such as 2nd ref is still seen as more damaging than either. The thing I’m struggling to understand is that most options open to the two main parties seem to range from ‘quite damaging’ to ‘very damaging’ but it’s not clear that the votes go anywhere else either. So presumably there is a bold option (eg Labour backing revoke, May dumping her party and agreeing a soft Labour-backed deal) that will actually be pretty positive for one party, but nobody is confident of predicting which option that is.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited February 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

    I thought they were capturing the encrypted signal, then playing that same encrypted stream straight back to the car later, without having to decode it.

    I guess that's better than having the scrotes come through the door looking for the keys, or carjacking the wife as she arrives home?
    The standard approach seems to be to amplify and direct the signal so that the key appears to be near the door as they open it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    tlg86 said:

    A story which combines two of PB's favourite topics:

    http://tinyurl.com/yb25qjv3

    The EU Commission has officially blocked a merger between Siemens and Alstom, stating that the companies “were not willing to address our serious competition concerns.”

    Combining 2 more PB favourite topics (tweets and unfortunate innuendo), M&S have Valentine’s Day dinner sorted this year:

    https://twitter.com/marksandspencer/status/1093434190715109379?s=21

    I’m sure someone’s already trawling through the likes to try and find Labour PPCs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    With politics I am normally a backer of things NOT happening. And I do think it marginally more likely than not that we get through 2019 without a general election. At current odds, however, I judge it as more of a back than a lay.

    It's a definite lay. A 2019 GE serves no purpose.

    Lest we forget 432 MPs voted No to the Deal. If there's no changes we can expect roughly that many to stick to that. Lets imagine May goes to the polls to break the deadlock and we see a Tory majority won. That doesn't change the maths. Even if the Tories made an incredible 50 gains, which won't happen ... but even if all 50 of those gains came from opposition MPs opposed to the Deal, even if all 50 gains backed the Deal (no guarantee of that). That leaves roughly 382 MPs still opposed to the Deal.

    A GE can't break the deadlock in May's favour since the opposition to it is in no small part coming from her own side.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Public Service announcement - Costco have an offer on bog roll coming up next week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the other side

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1093461703201906689

    This is a pretty big shift by Corbyn and presumably reflects a calculation that the fence-sitting has become more damaging than facilitating a softer Brexit, though any form of ‘frustration’ such as 2nd ref is still seen as more damaging than either. The thing I’m struggling to understand is that most options open to the two main parties seem to range from ‘quite damaging’ to ‘very damaging’ but it’s not clear that the votes go anywhere else either. So presumably there is a bold option (eg Labour backing revoke, May dumping her party and agreeing a soft Labour-backed deal) that will actually be pretty positive for one party, but nobody is confident of predicting which option that is.
    Yes, I struggle with understanding that too. Where do the votes go? You'd think LibDems, but it ain't happening. Maybe when we get past a point of no return....then we'll see?

    And perhaps be surprised?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eek said:

    The standard approach seems to be to amplify and direct the signal so that the key appears to be near the door as they open it.

    I assume (perhaps wrongly) that the key does more than send the same single encrypted string every time.

    I would hope that there is a challenge/response sequence, meaning the code changes every time, which is why they have to do it "live"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

    I thought they were capturing the encrypted signal, then playing that same encrypted stream straight back to the car later, without having to decode it.

    (Snip)
    AIUI the keys (at least some forms) have a pseudo-random code shift per use or by time. So you need to do it at the time you steal. Hence two people: one standing near the house to sniff the keys, who transmits it to another by the car.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    Then why the F*ck is she going? She like long train rides or something?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Ha!

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1093470381980241920
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

    I thought they were capturing the encrypted signal, then playing that same encrypted stream straight back to the car later, without having to decode it.

    I guess that's better than having the scrotes come through the door looking for the keys, or carjacking the wife as she arrives home?
    I don't know about other manufacturers but Porsche's poetically named "Entry & Drive" system uses a continuously changing code that defeats replay attacks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oops

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1093465155378253824
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    Re electronics on cars and the problems I have had on previous thread (of course it could be I have a cheap car pretending to be sophisticated) I had a more interesting one recently. My car needed recovering. Nothing wrong with the car, it was my wife who had broken down. She was several hundred miles away and contrived to break her arm.

    When the car returned all the brake warning lights were flashing at me - Handbrake, ABS, Anti skid. Called the garage and they said 'Has it been on trailer?' . Yep. Lifting some wheels off the ground and moving it apparently screws up the sensors. A quick trip and all sorted.

    Except for the estimated mileage for the fuel I had. Half a tank showed 3000 miles. I should be about 250 - 300. A 6 mile round trip to school managed to use 2000 of those miles! A few more trips and back to normal. I have no idea how that happened. It can't possibly be recording the trip on the back of the trailer using GPS can it, but that is the only explanation I can think of for it thinking it can go so far on so little fuel. Confused.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:

    From the other side

    https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1093461703201906689

    This is a pretty big shift by Corbyn and presumably reflects a calculation that the fence-sitting has become more damaging than facilitating a softer Brexit, though any form of ‘frustration’ such as 2nd ref is still seen as more damaging than either. The thing I’m struggling to understand is that most options open to the two main parties seem to range from ‘quite damaging’ to ‘very damaging’ but it’s not clear that the votes go anywhere else either. So presumably there is a bold option (eg Labour backing revoke, May dumping her party and agreeing a soft Labour-backed deal) that will actually be pretty positive for one party, but nobody is confident of predicting which option that is.
    Yes, I struggle with understanding that too. Where do the votes go? You'd think LibDems, but it ain't happening. Maybe when we get past a point of no return....then we'll see?

    And perhaps be surprised?
    Hard Brexit = Tory to Labour shift (even the cheerleaders won’t like the reality and will blame the government; Labour can say they tried to stop it)
    No Brexit = Labour to Tory shift though hard to say how much (Labour stops its Europhile base voting LD/Green, but loses the sceptics; Tory voters don’t really have anywhere to go)
    Soft Brexit = mystery (Tory voters hate it, Labour’s Europhile base hates Labour facilitating it)
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    Good morning.

    Corbyn made an offer. May rejected it. May has offered nothing to the EU. The EU has reiterated the WA will not be renegotiated and the backstop will not be changed.

    Nothing has changed.

    50 days remaining.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited February 2019
    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093472116614193153
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    Given that May has *already* rejected Corbyn's offer, that'd be a really dumb thing to resign over.

    Still, we are in an era of the most unimaginable political dumbitude, so who knows.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sandpit said:

    I think laying 2022 is the way to play this market.
    (having backed 2022 a couple of weeks ago)
    There's way too many variables, and almost all of them go against the chances of a minority government lasting the full five year term.

    Maybe, but compared to minority governments of yesteryear are two factors in 2022's favour.
    1. The death rate of government MPs is lower, meaning fewer by-elections in government-held constituencies.
    2. Corbyn is astonishingly repellent to any Tory MP considering defecting and the Lib Dems too weak. With a moderate Labour leader and/or a stronger Lib Dems I think we would have seen several defections.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    What the.....

    She’s going there because the Commons said last week they’d pass the WA without the backstop. That’s what she needs to be telling those she meets in Brussels.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Fight!

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1093472159387865089
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093472116614193153

    LMAO - a few weeks ago, these people were clutching their pearls because Corbyn refused to talk to May, and now they're clutching their pearls because.....he is talking to May.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Guess she just fancied a trip to Brussels and hanging out with Tusk and Junker not to mention the highlight of anyone's mini-break - Lunch with Guy Verhofstadt? :D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    QTWTAIN?

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1093473534234542080
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile...

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1093473540534345728
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    . https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1093473691088965633
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    What the.....

    She’s going there because the Commons said last week they’d pass the WA without the backstop. That’s what she needs to be telling those she meets in Brussels.
    Unfortunately they have the internet in Brussels too, and given the number of ERGers have been saying that they won’t pass the WA without the backstop, it’s a bit hard for her to say that she now has the votes off the back of last week’s amendment.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    You’re right - that’s a change in the landscape, but as May is immune to ideas of compromise, she’s playing the nothing-has-changed tune and continuing to run the clock down. As far as I can see that gives Labour a cost-free win but changes nothing else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    Sandpit said:

    Primo?

    You will have to pay a tax for first post.

    It's known as the Primo Levy.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093472116614193153

    Presumably the Corbynistas will brand them as #MadMullers
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    The more modern keyfobs seem to be eminently interceptable too, with ne'er do wells capturing the signal that locked the car as you walked away from it - to come back an hour later to unlock and start the car.

    Keyless go attacks work by scanning for the key (eg inside the house) and then boosting the signal toward the car (eg parked outside). There haven't been any documented examples of the encryption being broken although there have been claims...

    I thought they were capturing the encrypted signal, then playing that same encrypted stream straight back to the car later, without having to decode it.

    I guess that's better than having the scrotes come through the door looking for the keys, or carjacking the wife as she arrives home?
    I don't know about other manufacturers but Porsche's poetically named "Entry & Drive" system uses a continuously changing code that defeats replay attacks.
    In that case, I’ll definitely put my name down for the new GT4!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The damage continues: EasyJet are transferring over 1,000 pilots, re-issuing 3,300 cabin crew licences and re-registering 133 aircraft from the UK to Austria, and are creating a second spare parts “hub” in the EU to limit exposure to any logistical supply chain risks between the EU and the UK.

    No one of these moves by UK businesses is a big deal, but the cumulative effect across multiple industries is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound, akin to imposing economic sanctions on ourselves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    tlg86 said:

    A story which combines two of PB's favourite topics:

    What, biscuits and the Punic Wars?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    kjh said:



    When the car returned all the brake warning lights were flashing at me - Handbrake, ABS, Anti skid. Called the garage and they said 'Has it been on trailer?' . Yep. Lifting some wheels off the ground and moving it apparently screws up the sensors. A quick trip and all sorted.

    That's how a Belgian AF F-16 got a guns kill on another Belgian AF F-16 despite them both being on the ground at the time. Weight on wheels disables the gun in the F-16 but they had one up on jacks which took the weight off the gear and thereby armed the gun. F-16s are always operated with 500+ rounds in the M61 for CoG reasons so when they "tested" the gun. BRRRRRRRRRRRPPPP!!!! Scratch one Viper...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    Scott_P said:

    . https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1093473691088965633

    Are words and their combination a new thing for Wes Streeting?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited February 2019
    Scott_P said:

    QTWTAIN?

    https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1093473534234542080

    Wouldn't it be something if all the Remain MP's followed their conscience and were prepared to lose their seats in order to reverse the Referendum...................

    "It is a far far better thing that I do than I have ever done;

    It is a far far better rest that I go to than I have ever known'.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1093238514328711169
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Popcorn

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1093476426685317120
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    edited February 2019
    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093472116614193153

    LMAO - a few weeks ago, these people were clutching their pearls because Corbyn refused to talk to May, and now they're clutching their pearls because.....he is talking to May.
    Whatever the traumas surrounding Brexit, you can't say that Labour's multiple positions haven't been a laugh.

    It's like watching them play Twister against an octopus.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Think you might want to put your disclaimer into this thread header Mike! :wink:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The damage continues: EasyJet are transferring over 1,000 pilots, re-issuing 3,300 cabin crew licences and re-registering 133 aircraft from the UK to Austria, and are creating a second spare parts “hub” in the EU to limit exposure to any logistical supply chain risks between the EU and the UK.

    No one of these moves by UK businesses is a big deal, but the cumulative effect across multiple industries is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound, akin to imposing economic sanctions on ourselves.

    Remember the bus, the bus promised that everything will be ok. Everything will be ok.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    Theuniondivvie said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has accepted the unacceptable deal.

    Big of them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited February 2019
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has accepted the unacceptable deal.

    Big of them.
    To be fair HM govt co-authored and accepted the deal. It was just a teensy weensy bit incompetent in forgetting it needed support to ratify it and agreed to things it could not deliver.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The damage continues: EasyJet are transferring over 1,000 pilots, re-issuing 3,300 cabin crew licences and re-registering 133 aircraft from the UK to Austria, and are creating a second spare parts “hub” in the EU to limit exposure to any logistical supply chain risks between the EU and the UK.

    No one of these moves by UK businesses is a big deal, but the cumulative effect across multiple industries is the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound, akin to imposing economic sanctions on ourselves.

    Didn't they do that in 2017?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1093238514328711169

    How does that compare with previous polling? 60-40 looks surprisingly close to me.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nothing has changed

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1093478044004696064
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has accepted the unacceptable deal.

    Big of them.
    The EU accepted Mrs May's backstop.
    Mrs May didn't.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.


    I wonder if this a real move, or just repositioning to another impossible-to-meet set of demands.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has accepted the unacceptable deal.

    Big of them.
    ...which the U.K. government asked them to accept...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,724
    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:



    When the car returned all the brake warning lights were flashing at me - Handbrake, ABS, Anti skid. Called the garage and they said 'Has it been on trailer?' . Yep. Lifting some wheels off the ground and moving it apparently screws up the sensors. A quick trip and all sorted.

    That's how a Belgian AF F-16 got a guns kill on another Belgian AF F-16 despite them both being on the ground at the time. Weight on wheels disables the gun in the F-16 but they had one up on jacks which took the weight off the gear and thereby armed the gun. F-16s are always operated with 500+ rounds in the M61 for CoG reasons so when they "tested" the gun. BRRRRRRRRRRRPPPP!!!! Scratch one Viper...
    I've got a related story about a 747. British Airways (used?) to do maintenance work for other airlines at Cardiff - in fact, they used to fly personnel between Heathrow and Cardiff to work there. BA got a new contract in the 1980s with a large, prestigious foreign airline, and the first 747 was delivered to Cardiff.

    Keen to impress, BA immediately put teams on board to work. Some started performing delivery tests (so they could see what was working when delivered), along with customer representatives. Whilst other crews were starting the maintenance work.

    They accidentally disabled the safeguards with the hydraulics, and someone tried raising the landing gear. It did not raise but did shift. And over a few minutes, the 747 settled nose-first onto the tarmac.

    Causing millions of pounds worth of damage. For those minutes, people were running around trying to find something to prop up the plane's nose. But that's not easy to do.

    Allegedly ... I've no idea if this was even technically feasible, but the source was impeccable - retired head of maintenance, who claims to have once 'imported' a motorbike into the UK from the US inside a crate holding a jet engine...
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    Jonathan said:


    Remember the bus, the bus promised that everything will be ok. Everything will be ok.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWkTQvlnDTI
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    MarqueeMark said:

    Sandpit said:

    Primo?

    You will have to pay a tax for first post.

    It's known as the Primo Levy.
    If not that, what?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited February 2019
    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:



    When the car returned all the brake warning lights were flashing at me - Handbrake, ABS, Anti skid. Called the garage and they said 'Has it been on trailer?' . Yep. Lifting some wheels off the ground and moving it apparently screws up the sensors. A quick trip and all sorted.

    That's how a Belgian AF F-16 got a guns kill on another Belgian AF F-16 despite them both being on the ground at the time. Weight on wheels disables the gun in the F-16 but they had one up on jacks which took the weight off the gear and thereby armed the gun. F-16s are always operated with 500+ rounds in the M61 for CoG reasons so when they "tested" the gun. BRRRRRRRRRRRPPPP!!!! Scratch one Viper...
    LOL at live rounds loaded in the gun for CoG reasons. Don’t blanks weigh almost the same, or a box with a lead weight, or the bullets not connected to the gun?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    felix said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    Worst. PM. Ever.

    Even Eden wasn't this useless.
    I like the naivety of some who think another leader would by now have produced the perfect Brexit deal which the EU would have lovingly accepted without a murmur.
    It's not the EU, murmuring or not, that has to accept the deal, it's parliament, the Tory Party, the Labour Party, the ERG, the DUP and all the no plan Brexiteers in their wee corner of hell. The EU has accepted 'the' deal.
    The EU has accepted the unacceptable deal.

    Big of them.
    Yep, if only we knew which fucking morons negotiated that 'unacceptable' deal.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed...

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1093468860626489346

    What the.....

    She’s going there because the Commons said last week they’d pass the WA without the backstop. That’s what she needs to be telling those she meets in Brussels.
    That's the last thing she wants to do - start negotiating.

    Assuming they don't immediately tell her to go and fuck herself they would surely demand a massive danegeld for abandoning the backstop.

    Her plan, such as it is, is not to budge on anything and hope something turns up before VE Day 2.0. If not, delay A50 and GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501
    gypsumfantastic said:

    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    Given that May has *already* rejected Corbyn's offer, that'd be a really dumb thing to resign over.

    Still, we are in an era of the most unimaginable political dumbitude, so who knows.
    Nothing will happen.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Magnificent ...
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/1093468860626489346?s=21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501
    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1093478044004696064

    It is ready to "beef up" the political declaration only in a more Remainy direction.

    Otherwise, it will say the UK needs to decide what it wants.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    In that case, I’ll definitely put my name down for the new GT4!

    If you do, do it in the UK. It's going to be another GT3RS which will immediately trade at a 10-20% premium over RRP in RHD markets but there will be more supply in LHD markets.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    .https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1093479582332846081
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,501
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm a very happy layer of 2019. I expect I shall be a very happy layer of 2020. This Parliament looks to be going the distance to me. It isn't in the interests of a majority to hold an election early.

    I'm not sure where you get that confidence from. The polling is far too unpredictable.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MarqueeMark said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1093238514328711169

    How does that compare with previous polling? 60-40 looks surprisingly close to me.
    Maybe it won't be long before support for EU membership is higher in Britain than in France? :p
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited February 2019
    JosiasJessop said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:



    When the car returned all the brake warning lights were flashing at me - Handbrake, ABS, Anti skid. Called the garage and they said 'Has it been on trailer?' . Yep. Lifting some wheels off the ground and moving it apparently screws up the sensors. A quick trip and all sorted.

    That's how a Belgian AF F-16 got a guns kill on another Belgian AF F-16 despite them both being on the ground at the time. Weight on wheels disables the gun in the F-16 but they had one up on jacks which took the weight off the gear and thereby armed the gun. F-16s are always operated with 500+ rounds in the M61 for CoG reasons so when they "tested" the gun. BRRRRRRRRRRRPPPP!!!! Scratch one Viper...
    I've got a related story about a 747. British Airways (used?) to do maintenance work for other airlines at Cardiff - in fact, they used to fly personnel between Heathrow and Cardiff to work there. BA got a new contract in the 1980s with a large, prestigious foreign airline, and the first 747 was delivered to Cardiff.

    Keen to impress, BA immediately put teams on board to work. Some started performing delivery tests (so they could see what was working when delivered), along with customer representatives. Whilst other crews were starting the maintenance work.

    They accidentally disabled the safeguards with the hydraulics, and someone tried raising the landing gear. It did not raise but did shift. And over a few minutes, the 747 settled nose-first onto the tarmac.

    Causing millions of pounds worth of damage. For those minutes, people were running around trying to find something to prop up the plane's nose. But that's not easy to do.

    Allegedly ... I've no idea if this was even technically feasible, but the source was impeccable - retired head of maintenance, who claims to have once 'imported' a motorbike into the UK from the US inside a crate holding a jet engine...
    Aircraft landing gear that's retractable should have pins placed in them when under maintainance on the ground, that physically stops them moving if someone screws up the hydraulics.

    It's on the pilot checklist, that the pins are in the cockpit before they start up, and not still on the landing gear. They also have 3' red coloured steamers hanging from them, so that a pilot walking around the aircraft remembers to take them out.

    (Yes, maintenance people have put their own pins in the gear before, without the streamers, leaving the aircraft's set in the cockpit just to screw with the pilots. Several commercial aircraft has taken off and had to come straight back because the gear wouldn't retract, thanks to some random gear pins that shouldn't have been there.)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Will new WHL be ready before Brexit?

    https://www.tottenhamhotspur.com/news/2019/february/new-stadium-update-arsenal-fixture/
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scott_P said:

    . https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1093473691088965633

    Are words and their combination a new thing for Wes Streeting?
    Some people have a way with words. Others do not have way.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    edited February 2019
    Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    Nothing has changed

    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1093478044004696064

    It is ready to "beef up" the political declaration only in a more Remainy direction.

    Otherwise, it will say the UK needs to decide what it wants.
    Is it my imagination
    Or have I finally found something worth Brexiting for?
    I was looking for some action
    But all I found was cake and unicorns

    Is it worth the aggravation
    To find yourself a deal when there's nothing worth Brexiting for?
    It's a crazy situation
    But all I need is cake and unicorns.

    You could wait for a lifetime
    To spend your days in the sunshine
    You might as well do the white line
    Cos when it comes on top

    You gotta make it happen
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
    That may be, but it is a change.

    Incidentally I think it's important to remember that the Cooper amendment failed by only 23 votes. A number of Tory MPs including ministers (and I believe some Cabinet ministers) voted with the government only on the basis that the whips persuaded them to hold off for a couple of weeks to allow the PM to try to come back with something on the backstop. If she fails to do so by the middle of next week or so, I'd expect at least 15 Conservative MPs would switch to supporting the Cooper-Boles position. That in turn is likely to have an impact on the financial markets.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm a very happy layer of 2019. I expect I shall be a very happy layer of 2020. This Parliament looks to be going the distance to me. It isn't in the interests of a majority to hold an election early.

    I'm not sure where you get that confidence from. The polling is far too unpredictable.
    Where do you see a majority in favour of an early election coming from? I can imagine one happening more or less by accident but after 2017 not by design.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited February 2019
    gypsumfantastic said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fatal stabbings at highest level since records began in 1946

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47156957

    According to the stats presented, you are more likely to be murdered in the ghetto of North Warwickshire than London.

    Isn't the fact that gangsters are stabbing each other a good thing, because it shows that obtaining guns is too difficult to be worth the effort most of the time?
    Stabbings + shootings over time would be a more interesting metric.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
    That may be, but it is a change.

    Incidentally I think it's important to remember that the Cooper amendment failed by only 23 votes. A number of Tory MPs including ministers (and I believe some Cabinet ministers) voted with the government only on the basis that the whips persuaded them to hold off for a couple of weeks to allow the PM to try to come back with something on the backstop. If she fails to do so by the middle of next week or so, I'd expect at least 15 Conservative MPs would switch to supporting the Cooper-Boles position. That in turn is likely to have an impact on the financial markets.
    I’ve lost touch with the process a bit: did she manage to wriggle out of a binding obligation to make a statement followed by an amendable motion on 13 Feb, or is that still in place?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    From the Guardian:

    http://tinyurl.com/ya6dyhyh

    The economic outlook will continue to depend significantly on the nature of EU withdrawal, in particular: the new trading arrangements between the European Union and the United Kingdom; whether the transition to them is abrupt or smooth; and how households, businesses and financial markets respond.

    The appropriate path of monetary policy will depend on the balance of these effects on demand, supply and the exchange rate. The monetary policy response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction.

    You mean, the BoE will carry on doing what it's always done?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Polruan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
    That may be, but it is a change.

    Incidentally I think it's important to remember that the Cooper amendment failed by only 23 votes. A number of Tory MPs including ministers (and I believe some Cabinet ministers) voted with the government only on the basis that the whips persuaded them to hold off for a couple of weeks to allow the PM to try to come back with something on the backstop. If she fails to do so by the middle of next week or so, I'd expect at least 15 Conservative MPs would switch to supporting the Cooper-Boles position. That in turn is likely to have an impact on the financial markets.
    I’ve lost touch with the process a bit: did she manage to wriggle out of a binding obligation to make a statement followed by an amendable motion on 13 Feb, or is that still in place?
    I think it's still in place, for the 14th Feb.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,619
    Polruan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
    That may be, but it is a change.

    Incidentally I think it's important to remember that the Cooper amendment failed by only 23 votes. A number of Tory MPs including ministers (and I believe some Cabinet ministers) voted with the government only on the basis that the whips persuaded them to hold off for a couple of weeks to allow the PM to try to come back with something on the backstop. If she fails to do so by the middle of next week or so, I'd expect at least 15 Conservative MPs would switch to supporting the Cooper-Boles position. That in turn is likely to have an impact on the financial markets.
    I’ve lost touch with the process a bit: did she manage to wriggle out of a binding obligation to make a statement followed by an amendable motion on 13 Feb, or is that still in place?
    I thought it had been put back to the end of the month?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:


    LOL at live rounds loaded in the gun for CoG reasons. Don’t blanks weigh almost the same, or a box with a lead weight, or the bullets not connected to the gun?

    TRIGGER WARNING: NON-BREXIT CONTENT BELOW. KEEP SCROLLING>

    There is no such thing as "blanks" for the M61. Practice rounds are solid lead (as opposed to API/HEI/SAPHEI rounds normally carried) but are painted blue so you can see when you've hit a towed target. So a 45 round burst of practice rounds with a muzzle velocity of 1000m/s would ruin your fucking day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Casino_Royale said:

    gypsumfantastic said:

    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    Given that May has *already* rejected Corbyn's offer, that'd be a really dumb thing to resign over.

    Still, we are in an era of the most unimaginable political dumbitude, so who knows.
    Nothing will happen.
    No. It is more talk. I see Owen Smith is the latest to say he might have to think hard about the party if this continues.
  • gypsumfantasticgypsumfantastic Posts: 258
    edited February 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Polruan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Something has changed, surely? Labour have just said effectively that they'll back the Withdrawal Agreement in return for some non-binding flim-flam on the political agreement. Admittedly this is something they could have agreed to back in December, which would have meant less damage to the UK economy, but better late than never.

    Maybe. I doubt Corbyn will whip his MPs to support it under any circumstances.
    That may be, but it is a change.

    Incidentally I think it's important to remember that the Cooper amendment failed by only 23 votes. A number of Tory MPs including ministers (and I believe some Cabinet ministers) voted with the government only on the basis that the whips persuaded them to hold off for a couple of weeks to allow the PM to try to come back with something on the backstop. If she fails to do so by the middle of next week or so, I'd expect at least 15 Conservative MPs would switch to supporting the Cooper-Boles position. That in turn is likely to have an impact on the financial markets.
    I’ve lost touch with the process a bit: did she manage to wriggle out of a binding obligation to make a statement followed by an amendable motion on 13 Feb, or is that still in place?
    I think it's still in place, for the 14th Feb.
    The Standard claimed last night it's being delayed, but it's not official. And, of course, Osborne likes to shit-stir anti-May hostility in his party so we can take that with a no-deal-brexit-stockpile-sized pinch of Maldon's finest.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    gypsumfantastic said:

    Scott_P said:

    Will they, or won't they?

    https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1093471583509901313

    Given that May has *already* rejected Corbyn's offer, that'd be a really dumb thing to resign over.

    Still, we are in an era of the most unimaginable political dumbitude, so who knows.
    Nothing will happen.
    No. It is more talk. I see Owen Smith is the latest to say he might have to think hard about the party if this continues.
    I think the Ultra Remoaners should Leave TBH
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    Brendan has been Brendanning again.

    https://twitter.com/johnb78/status/1093423982462681088
This discussion has been closed.