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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task
Today our most important task is to prevent a no deal #Brexit. I hope that tomorrow we will hear from PM @theresa_may a realistic suggestion on how to end the impasse. https://t.co/ko9UGhtaJd pic.twitter.com/Rm9fNXwyks
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SeanT said:
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I'm actually in a very buoyant mood. New book's a killer, got some TV deals for Tremayne up and running. I have a suntan from Vietnam and I'm off to Nepal and then the desert state of the USA, for the Times, in a couple of weeks. And my wife is 23. Today is a day when I feel unjustifiably lucky.
Hence my uncharacteristic niceness, all day, perhaps.
What I AM doing is procrastinating horribly, to avoid a tedious edit (as I said below). PB is good for procrastinators like me.... and, ah, pensioners with nowt to do?
I am determined to start work at 4, tho.
4
Yes, 4. Definitely.
4
ah, pensioners with nowt to do?
I'm so busy these days I wonder I had the time to go to work.
Actually that's not true. I've slowed down a bit lately. However I've spent the past couple of hours determining which Summer Sundays I'm prepared to devote to assisting with our local Museum.
Form an orderly queue behind David Cameron
In fact it's looking to me increasingly likely that however we leave (even with no deal), the UK will over the following year grow faster than the Eurozone. We will probably be the fastest growing European G7 economy.
But I doubt even that will make many people eat humble pie.
But then if the EU had mature and sensible leaders willing to compromise then we wouldn't be leaving.
The Millennium Bug was not a problem because a huge amount of mitigation was put in place to prevent it and minimise its effects. Basically there was a plan and people knew what had to be done and buckled down and did it.
Brexit has no plan. No idea of what it means. It is like a Millennium Bug with no one agreeing what the fix is.
https://twitter.com/DaveSmithSkvn/status/1090713127828836352/photo/1
From what I've seen, I don't think the EU would honour the spirit of the political declaration - they would want a real pound of flesh for the Canada / Korea style deal.
If we want out, it will need to be WTO then see what we can negotiate to from that clean position.
That or Remain. Anything else is too much of a horlicks.
I am disappointed he's not seeking a compromise. When MPs from completely different wings of the divide like IDS/Baker and Morgan/Green can reach a compromise then sensible leaders which Tusk is supposed to be should be looking for an acceptable compromise too. Not stoking fires.
The EU are relaxed about accepting that if Ireland are on board. Possibly agree an extended transition period (with further payments) so that it is even more unlikely that the backstop never comes into force.
The UK Parliament is still fairly finely balanced but just supports the deal with the revision to the back stop.
Parliament finally pulls the finger out and gets the legislation required for the deal through.
The UK leaves on 28th March as planned.
Simples. What could possibly go wrong? ;-)
Tusk is, of course, absolutely right. The brexit buccaneers have fucked everything up good and proper, and it's the duty of everyone else to take the piss loudly, publicly, and often.
That they get triggered so amusingly is, of course, just a reason to carry on doing it.
On your other point, a deal had been struck. From his viewpoint, Britain is trying to reopen a negotiation that had been completed, but is doing so without any coherent aim or without any acknowledgement of the EU's own longstanding red lines. Why should the EU give up its own principles in pursuit of marsh gas?
If you want to be taken seriously as a politician of some stature then you use the language of Merkel. If you want to make waves on social media but undermine your seniority then use the language of Tusk.
I was comparing the stasis, not the death-toll. Your response simply underlines the effect that there is little point in any discussion.
It's always amusing when politicians start coming over all "fire and brimstone" whether that's firey reverends from Belfast or a non-entity like Tusk...
A deal was struck with one MP. Hundreds of other MPs said very vocally and very clearly they would reject that deal and they stuck to their word. The UK isn't a dictatorship.
When you boil it down, the death cult's only point is "we don't like what he said".
It is beyond parody.
Then again I don't believe in hell nor do I think religion and politics make good bedfellows.
Are our dear leaders working to such mini milestones and so forth with the Brexit timetable ?
I shouldn't have been surprised. If you play a rakish English alcoholic gay conman in New York you rally don't need to camp it up. I can only think the Americans found him eccentric? It really wasn't
I wonder if there are equivalent groups coining it on 'no deal planning'?
He believes brexit and all brexiteers are evil and deserve to burn very slowly and tortuously painfully in the fieriest pits of hell, and he should have said so.
Secondly it overlooks the nature of the vote. If he had said Cameron should have a special place in hell then perhaps that would be justified in his world view, however Cameron structured the vote in a way he could not see losing, and the government back d his position. Cameron thought that if he asked for people to vote for a nebulous idea, that brought out the racists like Farage on one wing, and the free traders on the other side that this would not have been successful. Europe clearly didn’t think we would vote to leave or they would have given Cameron something after his negotiations - instead they humiliated him, and by association the whole country, and he now expects the country to be grateful for continued supplication. I suspect after this we will see a further increase in support for no deal, supposedly what the EU don’t want.
The difference is the programmers had a narrow and well-defined task, and the absolute ability to fix it. The consultancy clowns have neither.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1093164715394719744
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cyber-norway-visma/china-hacked-norways-visma-to-steal-client-secrets-investigators-idUSKCN1PV141
But it shouldn't be beyond the ingenuity of the people here to agree an objective measure of how bad, or how not bad, a No Deal Brexit would be. Who knows, perhaps bets could even be placed on it.
Would you accept the value of the pound as a criterion, or is the idea that the lower it goes the better?
Seriously the open border with Eire envisaged by the WA is a real worry for agriculture. Macron and Varhaker do not understand the storm they are sowing for, lets face it, pretty base partisan reasons. Fortunately the next set of national elections will dispatch them both to Donald Tusk's special place, and not before time.
I think a far better metric would be a comparator between UK and EU real GDP per capita growth 10-20 years after Brexit.
https://twitter.com/mattyourmate/status/1093175194242482185
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/08/uk-economic-growth-slowest-europe-next-year-european-commission-forecasts-brexit
I think it is possible that some (Italy or Belgium perhaps) will have worse growth than us, but it is highly improbable that we will grow faster than the emerging economies of Eastern Europe, like Slovakia or Romania, all of which are resistant to Brexit effects.
Those in favour of remain / 2nd referendum / customs union need to give a nudge to Tusk, Junker et al, that their comments and general attitude are less than helpful.
If you're talking about the Millennium Bug as an analogy, we should know within the next three months whether you're right or not, shouldn't we? We just need to fix an objective criterion of disaster for this April.
Life in the fast lane!
Me, I like to lie on the sofa most days and just watch the clock, watch the big finger whiz round and round, and the little finger do the same but much more slowly. It's quite easy to see the big finger actually move but the little one you never can. And yet even though it is impossible to see it move, i.e. it appears always perfectly still, nevertheless after any significant period of time it will have discernibly moved. With my clock, the one I stare at, in an hour it will have moved by approximately one inch.
Moral there, for Brexit, I would have thought.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1093188866859765760?s=21
You of course can think he served out some real justice but I think the reality is he slipped up.
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1093182047307395073?s=21
Over the short term if it is a disaster as foreseen then I think that would show up as an immediate recession, an immediate surge in unemployment etc. You know the sort of things Osborne warned us about if we voted to leave.
"Now Father, what do you think about Brexit?"
"That would be an ecumenical matter"
Incidentally good luck getting the USA to finalise ratification of an international agreement most Senators oppose no matter how much the POTUS wants it ratifying.
I have deliberately worded these so that a few weeks of minor disruptions doesn't count, but rather that these would indicate significant disruption, or longer-lasting disruption.
- Are tariffs imposed on British-made cars by the EU within a year of leaving?
- Are there stationary queues of lorries waiting to cross the Channel a month after exit day?
- Are there stationary queues of lorries waiting to cross the Channel six months after exit day?
- Has the military been used for civilian purposes in response to disruption caused by Brexit?
- Has there been any special restriction placed on distribution of goods by government or by two or more of the major supermarkets (i.e. rationing) of food or petrol?