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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I’m not convinced the Tories are going to let TMay fight a second general election as party and PM
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We’ve only really seen a squeeze in welfare from about 2014 onwards. Pushing down the local housing allowances, the benefit cap so a family on benefits won’t be better off than the average household income, and the ‘bedroom tax’.
The Lha changes, and the benefit cap would have disproportionately hit those areas with high house prices, which would,not have been in leave areas.
In Cumbria the areas that voted the most to leave have probably not suffered disproportionately in any measurable way due to austerity.
The link is created by the removal of a lot of top up funds given to poorer councils around the country, many of these were in fact temporary.
This is an example:
http://data.parliament.uk/DepositedPapers/Files/DEP2009-2109/DEP2009-2109.doc
So it is a correlation with those areas of the country that have not done particularly well, or just not as well as other more dynamic areas. Mostly a north south thing, but that hides some of the substantial economic gains of the northern cities like Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle.
Theresa May has already committed in public to not fighting the next general election. She gave that commitment in order to win the party vote of confidence in her in December. The Cabinet will surely hold her to that.
Paradoxically, the only way that Theresa May might get to fight another general election is if she loses a Parliamentary vote of no confidence in circumstances where she is trying to win it - most obviously, if the Deal passes and then the DUP vote her down. Even then I expect that someone else might well cobble together a coalition before the Parliamentary self-destruct countdown is completed.
No way can May remain as PM if she oversees a No Deal Brexit.
No way can May remain as PM while we negotiate the trade deal with the EU.
She has proven herself inept at protecting the party's best interests. She has proven herself inept at protecting the nation's best interests. On either metric, she should lose her job.
Mr. Anazina, I wouldn't worry. The number's meant to be 606, a reference to Nero using some sort of alphanumeric. But they got it wrong, either originally or in translation, and it's been known as 666 ever since.
She lost the election because she was seen to be a fanatical Leaver.
The only way Tory and neutral Remainers could register their disgust was to vote Corbyn.
*Assuming the Tories aren't led by Boris or anyone who looks or sounds like him.
She’d win a landslide.
That is why there will be an election this year.
Whether Mrs May is party leader is a separate question. Her promise to step down beforehand seemed to relate, after checking the small print, to the 2022 election. She is safe from a party vonc but the Cabinet might attempt to force her out, though its leverage is limited.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857
I’m on ‘19 and ‘22 in this market, so knowing my luck it will be spring next year.
Equally would any party stand on the basis of implementing May's deal - it's why I don't see a general election and no party has a clue what to put in the Europe slot on their manifesto...
Some voters took fright on realising that the polls were pointing to an enormous Tory majority, and that this might indeed result in a paramilitary Brexit.
May’s lack of specificity enabled others to define her Brexit for her.
She should of course have gone to the polls with a much more specific Brexit (though then Tory unity would have crumpled).
He doesn't get out much these days.....
I suspect May’s deal will ultimately pass, and then May will be removed.
She will be the scapegoat.
Presumably.
That sounded like fanaticism.
Otherwise I agree with your analysis; May is essentially trying to pretend to deliver both hard and soft Brexit simultaneously. It won't work.
As today's Guardian puts it -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/03/brexit-united-tory-party-stockpiling-conservatives-europe
"An orderly Brexit depends on a united Tory party. So start stockpiling now"
- one of Labours weakest points is re-election as they have impending issues around deselection of moderate MPs, there would be pressure to crystallise an approach to Brexit, there are unrealistic expectations on the ability of the campaign to swing opinion.
- May needs party discipline on her own side and the two threat of an election ties her own side closer
- as we found out in 2017 it might not lead to a conclusive result
- May normally prevaricates but when she didn’t in 17 it went wrong
For the above reasons my sense is that there will be an election next year after a new Tory leader is installed, or in 22, But the uncertainty is so great I would not put money on the Market.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1092348485393891328
Anyway, I enjoy tinned fish, baked beans and corned beef.
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1092322409699516416
One is a road to avoiding a cliffedge Brexit and one is a road to nowhere.
(1) TM calls one to break the impasse in the event of her deal being blocked.
(2) TM deal passes causing the DUP to withdraw confidence and collapse the government.
(3) TM deal passes, she steps down after B day, new tory PM calls GE to secure a mandate.
(4) We slide to no deal causing Grieve faction to resign whip and collapse the government.
(5) Corbyn installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
(6) Unity Coalition installed to deliver BINO, unstable government, does not last long.
(7) Other scenarios that I can't think of right now.
An election in 2019 is available at 2.7 on Betfair.
My usual MO for political betting is to put money on things NOT happening (although depending on price obviously) but I am making an exception here. I think the 2.7 is value.
My favourite example of this new scrutiny is here
https://www.businessinsider.com/president-trump-flip-flops-made-from-tweets-2018-12?r=US&IR=T
I can see the logic in that and in the meantime we can all look, in despair, at the nonsense that is the 'Malthouse' plan.
I expect TM will wait until after mid Feb before entering talks in the EU following which she will no doubt re-submit the plan, adjusted or otherwise, and see how many ERG blink and how many labour mps vote for it.
TM is going to need an extension to A50 at least for 3 months and I expect that request to be made sometime in March
I expect the deal will go through by the end of June, just before the EU re-convene in July
Unemployment.
If you were a Tory MP in a marginal constituency would you be happy to see May lead the party into an election?
Worth remembering May only won the confidence vote on an explicit promise that she wouldn't!
I'm sure the farmers of South Africa and Israel and Peru will go "Woo-hoo! Bring it on!" at the prospect of selling to the Brits at higher prices than if they had sold heir produce at home....
We always seem to get xyz claims A, what we don't get is the bit that says A isn't possibly because of B and C which xyz already should knew because he studied Modern History at Oxford...
If any conservative mp resigns the whip and stands as an independent, do not expect them to vote for a GE and loss of their seat
Also, remember for TM to call an election it has to pass the cabinet and then receive the support of 434 mps and without the conservative support it falls
There could be a GE this year but it is looking unlikely while brexit is unresolved. Indeed labour may have more problems than the conservatives with a number ready to split away and form their own pro EU group
The Tories in general could do with someone strong in marketing able to sell their story. Over the last 9 years they have repeatedly allowed opponents to misframe their policies. The spare room subsidy / bedroom tax to me is the most fascinating. The last time I looked at it, it was actually a successful policy, in support8ng the reallocation of public sector housing to appropriately sized households
If they had taken into account the problems around availability of suitably sized alternative accommodation to downsize to, and also taken account of different needs of families with disabled members, and those who have service personnel as residents, then I would class it as a great policy. However if you mention bedroom tax to anyone you will hardly find a supporter.
There aren't many times that would be auspicious for May to call an election, but one is the day after the Labour Party splits.
You can say it doesn't really matter because Kawczynski is a witless, avaricious vacuity, but currently people like him, if not in the saddle, are grabbing at the reins of our future with their sweaty little paws. They're also symptoms of much bigger forces who want to control the narrative, to use a wanky phrase.