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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    notme2 said:



    A quick google says no such conviction.

    In Nick Clegg's own words:

    "I had to do penance, I had to do a form of community service.

    “I was digging up flowerbeds in a suburb of Munich.

    “I’m not proud of it, it’s terrible."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nick-clegg-i-set-fire-to-a-cacti-collection-and-im-not-proud-of-it-9375806.html
  • The loons are back on manouevres, showing once more why ultimately the Tories are buggered ...

    https://twitter.com/stevebakerhw/status/1091978006883635200?s=21
  • Cyclefree said:

    /

    A touching faith that Brexit will be concluded any time soon.

    Imagine having May negotiate the FTA. She knows - and cares nothing - about business or services. She’s the last person who should be in charge. The idea that she should be given even more power to ignore everyone and go her own sweet way is horrific, frankly. She needs to go.
    Wakey-wakey, Cyclefree. It's not like you to misread a post. :-)


    'Some kind of conclusion' will be reached when we know whether we have No Deal, May Deal or Oops-Sorry-We-Didn't-Really-Mean-It-Can-We-Remain-Please? Yes of course the whole sorry business will drag on interminably in the event of any kind of Brexit, but by then the die will have been truly cast.


    And in that sense we will have reached a conclusion.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?
    Put a motion to the House of Commons. It would need a substantial rebellion by the Tories to fail to get a 2/3 majority with Labour backing it.
  • To be fair, the Supreme Court brouhaha, wasn't so much about the guy's beer drinking but sexual predation. If he'd said that he'd been silly, and on reflection sometimes rather unpleasant, in his youth, and apologised to the woman he might well have got away with it.
    Brett Kavanaugh did "get away with it" and has duly planted his bottom on the SCOTUS bench.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    edited February 2019

    Without for one moment leaping to the defence of May, one feels obliged to point out once again exactly how bone-headed the backstop itself is (assuming that one takes the reasons given for its existence at face value.)

    If we contemplate a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement expressly because the one on the table contained the backstop, then only two scenarios can follow. Either the Irish Government is forced to try to impose customs checkpoints all the way along the NI border - in which case, the backstop will have defeated itself by becoming the entire cause of the problem that it was meant to prevent. Or it point-blank refuses to impose such restrictions, in which case why on Earth was the backstop included in the WA in the first place?

    One is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that the backstop is positively counter-productive in terms of achieving its stated purpose, and that the Brexiteers may therefore be right when they suggest that it is really a device to compel the UK either to accept a permanent customs union by the back door, or to give Northern Ireland up.
    Big "if" there. Mrs May is bluffing on No Deal. The EU knows she is bluffing on No Deal. She will do anything to avoid it because of the damage to the Tory party and the country. But she is willing to spend billions, cause businesses to spend billions, and frighten millions of citizens, to shore up her bluff.

    If No Deal looms, she will extend A50 and the EU will agree. Kick the can - and in the meantime nothing has changed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    In Nick Clegg's own words:

    "I had to do penance, I had to do a form of community service.

    “I was digging up flowerbeds in a suburb of Munich.

    “I’m not proud of it, it’s terrible."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nick-clegg-i-set-fire-to-a-cacti-collection-and-im-not-proud-of-it-9375806.html
    In other words, no denial, admission, an apology and expression of deep regret. Move on, nothing to see.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?
    She'd call for a vote on it and the Labour party could hardly resist. It's a replay of last time.
  • To be fair, the Supreme Court brouhaha, wasn't so much about the guy's beer drinking but sexual predation. If he'd said that he'd been silly, and on reflection sometimes rather unpleasant, in his youth, and apologised to the woman he might well have got away with it.
    He lied to the Supreme Court. That was the issue. Yes, if he'd said he'd been a wayward youth and had grown up since, fairy nuff. But he didn't. He lied serially, under oath.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    Brett Kavanaugh did "get away with it" and has duly planted his bottom on the SCOTUS bench.
    Of course, but it's all added to the general air of sleaze around Trump and the Republicans. At least that's what got looks like to me.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    In other words, no denial, admission, an apology and expression of deep regret. Move on, nothing to see.
    Apology?
  • Barnesian said:

    She'd call for a vote on it and the Labour party could hardly resist. It's a replay of last time.
    How does she get it past her own party this time, bearing in mind she promised not to lead them into the next election?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869
    notme2 said:

    A quick google says no such conviction.
    BBC report: Clegg 'not proud' of conviction
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7003100.stm

    I see elsewhere he denied that he was actually convicted of arson. Maybe that's true.

    Still, he denied having been a member of the Cambridge University Conservative Association too, despite his name being on a membership list.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    Yes, that's what it was all about. Beer. Definitely beer.
    He loved beer, who doesn't love beer. So what if he drunk beer. He likes beer (please don't ask about hard liquor). Beer.
  • Barnesian said:

    Big "if" there. Mrs May is bluffing on No Deal. The EU knows she is bluffing on No Deal. She will do anything to avoid it because of the damage to the Tory party and the country. But she is willing to spend billions, cause businesses to spend billions, and frighten millions of citizens, to shore up her bluff.

    If No Deal looms, she will extend A50 and the EU will agree. Kick the can - and in the meantime nothing has changed.
    I too think she's bluffing, but would it be wise to call her bluff?

    Objectively I'd have to say it's a risk that shouldn't be taken. Emotionally, I'm inclined to say 'effit….No Deal if you like. It's no more than we deserve.'
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670



    To be fair, the Supreme Court brouhaha, wasn't so much about the guy's beer drinking but sexual predation. If he'd said that he'd been silly, and on reflection sometimes rather unpleasant, in his youth, and apologised to the woman he might well have got away with it.

    He's a supreme court judge for life, all complaints against him lodged with the professional standards boards have been dismissed as they are no longer competent.

    He got away with it.
  • Of course, but it's all added to the general air of sleaze around Trump and the Republicans. At least that's what got looks like to me.
    The interesting thing about Kavanaugh's Senate confirmation is that Kamala Harris seemed to have him in her cross-hairs but then it just petered out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401
    Chris said:

    BBC report: Clegg 'not proud' of conviction
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7003100.stm

    I see elsewhere he denied that he was actually convicted of arson. Maybe that's true.

    Still, he denied having been a member of the Cambridge University Conservative Association too, despite his name being on a membership list.
    I went to a couple of YunCons meeting when I was young. Was told there were attractive girls there.
    Wasn't true!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    How does she get it past her own party this time, bearing in mind she promised not to lead them into the next election?
    Not quite. She promised not to lead them into the next general election in 2022.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/12/theresa-may-signals-she-will-step-down-before-2022-election

    The DUP would undoubtedly vote against it as they risk losing their throttle hold. Perhaps some of the ERG for a similar reason? But not enough to avoid a 2/3rd majority if Labour vote for it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Do you think Klobuchar will even make it to the first debate?
    If she runs, yes. If she doesn't run, no.
  • Alistair said:

    He loved beer, who doesn't love beer. So what if he drunk beer. He likes beer (please don't ask about hard liquor). Beer.
    That's right. The rape and sodomy were merely incidental. Poor sod was victimised for just liking a beer.

    Yer aving a larf, no?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019
    Thousands of police officers and civilian staff have never undergone stricter criminal record and background checks, despite the fact that they were introduced in 2006, the BBC has found.

    Data from 16 forces in England and Wales showed 5,966 officers and staff had not had the retrospective checks, which include credit and DNA records.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47073883
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Barnesian said:

    Big "if" there. Mrs May is bluffing on No Deal. The EU knows she is bluffing on No Deal. She will do anything to avoid it because of the damage to the Tory party and the country. But she is willing to spend billions, cause businesses to spend billions, and frighten millions of citizens, to shore up her bluff.

    If No Deal looms, she will extend A50 and the EU will agree. Kick the can - and in the meantime nothing has changed.

    There is no incentive for the EU27 to extend if (a) Parliament remains deadlocked and (b) there is no indication of any event on the horizon which will end this condition. All that would do is give enough time for the UK to further complicate the European Parliament elections, by sending several dozen Hard Brexiteers to join the expected Eurosceptic surge.

    I know that the EU and Theresa May would make stiff competition for one another at the World Can-Kicking Championships, but they can't keep it going forever.
  • How does she get it past her own party this time, bearing in mind she promised not to lead them into the next election?
    Ah but did she? Reports are contradictory but it looks as if Theresa May ruled out leading the Conservatives into the 2022 election. In other words, to parallel the Brexit CU debate, May ruled out "the" next election rather than "a" next election.
  • Ah but did she? Reports are contradictory but it looks as if Theresa May ruled out leading the Conservatives into the 2022 election. In other words, to parallel the Brexit CU debate, May ruled out "the" next election rather than "a" next election.
    The reports of what was promised were reminiscent of Bercow's "friends" claims of when he was going to step down.
  • Barnesian said:

    Not quite. She promised not to lead them into the next general election in 2022.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/12/theresa-may-signals-she-will-step-down-before-2022-election

    The DUP would undoubtedly vote against it as they risk losing their throttle hold. Perhaps some of the ERG for a similar reason? But not enough to avoid a 2/3rd majority if Labour vote for it.
    She went further than that:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46555865/theresa-may-confirms-she-will-not-fight-another-general-election
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,892
    edited February 2019

    Probably - I don't think Warren is a bad candidate, although obviously she's no KLOBUCHAR.

    Their other problem is that there's a dynamic where the candidates are trying to out-compete each other on bold economic left-wingery. It's all very well to say you'll never vote for Trump now but if you think the other side will put your taxes up...
    There aren’t enough billionaires even in the US to make the electoral difference...

    .. although a couple more are tempted to run as a result.

  • Ah but did she? Reports are contradictory but it looks as if Theresa May ruled out leading the Conservatives into the 2022 election. In other words, to parallel the Brexit CU debate, May ruled out "the" next election rather than "a" next election.
    She already has a track record of saying one thing and doing another. Wouldn't be a problem for her to do so again, would it?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:
    Justin will tell you it's all wrong and the Scottish Labour surge is going to plan...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    I too think she's bluffing, but would it be wise to call her bluff?

    Objectively I'd have to say it's a risk that shouldn't be taken. Emotionally, I'm inclined to say 'effit….No Deal if you like. It's no more than we deserve.'
    We can see her hand. We know she's bluffing. If she was emotionally unstable and prone to irrationality like Trump, then perhaps you wouldn't take the risk. But she's strong and stable, - and has Philip by her side. Her husband, not the other one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019
    Just a reminder, its the Pats vs the rest of the US this evening in the hand egg final.

    https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1087204155486363649
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    The interesting thing about Kavanaugh's Senate confirmation is that Kamala Harris seemed to have him in her cross-hairs but then it just petered out.
    She didn't have the numbers in the Senate. It was the first time I saw her in action - and I was very impressed.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    She already has a track record of saying one thing and doing another. Wouldn't be a problem for her to do so again, would it?
    There isn't a politician alive who hasn't done that, so why should May be any different.
  • Scott_P said:
    Nationalise Nissan? It's a thought but you do realise it is already part-owned by the French government?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,892
    Sean_F said:

    Was Northam the Klansman or the black and white minstrel in the photo?
    He denies both - but as his mitigation plea included “Michael Jackson blackface”, and his denial is not a particularly convincing one, I think he’s on to a loser.

  • Nigelb said:

    He denies both - but as his mitigation plea included “Michael Jackson blackface”, and his denial is not a particularly convincing one, I think he’s on to a loser.

    Its the fact he had to ask family to check it wasn't him.

    I can say with 100% certainty there are no photos of me in either blackface or KKK outfit, as most people can.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    She went further than that:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46555865/theresa-may-confirms-she-will-not-fight-another-general-election
    Listen to the clip. She makes clear she is referring to 2022. The BBC headline is misleading.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    Regarding youthful antics, I went to a '1960s' fancy dress party about 25 years ago (it was good - might go to another one at some point) and there was a girl there who came as Jackie Kennedy post assassination, pink Chanel suit, fake bloodstains, the works. It split opinion IIRC. Many people were offended whereas some loved it.

    If that girl was now Stella Creasy, would she (and should she) be in trouble?

    I think on balance not - and no - but I'm sure not everybody would agree.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Foxy said:

    Not quite sure what you mean, but certainly the retrospectoscope is very effective at interpreting data!

    Theoretical questions on a GE, when hardly anyone expects one are quite misleading, as was well demonstrated 2 years ago. I remember the debate here was whether May would have a majority of 200 or just 100.
    Very true , there was a lot of talk regarding Don Valley, Bolsover going blue.
    Even the City of York seat was under threat .
  • Its the fact he had to ask family to check it wasn't him.

    I can say with 100% certainty there are no photos of me in either blackface or KKK outfit, as most people can.
    Funnily enough, I have a picture of me as a Black&White Minstrel at a children's fancy dress competition. I drew the line at the KKK though.

    Even as a small child, I had standards.
  • Barnesian said:

    Listen to the clip. She makes clear she is referring to 2022. The BBC headline is misleading.
    She says she is not fighting the next election. I really do not see how she can turn around and say that engineering an election now would be consistent with that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,773
    Scott_P said:
    Good Idea! lets switch over to Bren Carrier production and tin helmets as soon as possible.
  • There isn't a politician alive who hasn't done that, so why should May be any different.
    Not sure that's true, SR, but even if it were, would condoning it be right?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    edited February 2019
    Alistair said:

    He loved beer, who doesn't love beer. So what if he drunk beer. He likes beer (please don't ask about hard liquor). Beer.
    Just in case anyone doubts that Brett loves beer.

    https://youtu.be/gDumWOjmQfI
  • Sean_F said:

    I think we are still more level-headed about such things than the USA.
    I hope you’re right.
  • Just a reminder, its the Pats vs the rest of the US this evening in the hand egg final.

    https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1087204155486363649

    I think the Racing Post and 538 are on opposite sides of the bet on the length of the national anthem based on Gladys Knight Youtube videos, though dyor because I can't be bothered to check either source.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-super-bowls-best-matchup-is-gladys-knight-vs-the-clock/
    https://www.racingpost.com/sport/super-bowl-liii/five-novelty-tips-to-consider-for-super-bowl-liii/364113
  • Just a reminder, its the Pats vs the rest of the US this evening in the hand egg final.

    https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1087204155486363649

    Now why, I wonder, do the people of St Louis not like that nice Californian team? ;-)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Its the fact he had to ask family to check it wasn't him.

    I can say with 100% certainty there are no photos of me in either blackface or KKK outfit, as most people can.
    He's admitted wearing blackface to a party during that period.

    Which raises the question: is he suggesting he should resign if there's a photo of that, but not otherwise?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,892

    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    I don’t think it’s anything of the sort.
    As we’ve seen before, if politicians own their youthful indiscretions - whether they apologise for them or not - they often are not seriously affected by them. Keeping them hidden, particularly if such indiscretions are utterly at odds with their present political position, is what damages them.
    The public values authenticity.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    She says she is not fighting the next election. I really do not see how she can turn around and say that engineering an election now would be consistent with that.
    Listen to the clip. She confirms that she is not fighting "the next General Election" and goes on to clarify "The next General Election is in 2022 and I think it is right that another leader leads us into that election". I don't think she has a problem with that. Boris and a few others might complain but they'll be in a small minority.
  • The ERG loons have twigged they might have been played.

    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1091983264087183361?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019

    The ERG loons have twigged they might have been played.

    twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1091983264087183361?s=21

    I wish people would stop with this trend of sticking bloody stupid hashtags in their names.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Barnesian said:

    Listen to the clip. She confirms that she is not fighting "the next General Election" and goes on to clarify "The next General Election is in 2022 and I think it is right that another leader leads us into that election". I don't think she has a problem with that. Boris and a few others might complain but they'll be in a small minority.
    Wrong. A huge majority of Tory MPs don't want her anywhere near the next election.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003

    The ERG loons have twigged they might have been played.

    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1091983264087183361?s=21

    Another reason why the EU won't give any ground on the WDA. It still wouldn't get through parliament.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,773

    Now why, I wonder, do the people of St Louis not like that nice Californian team? ;-)
    I am curious as to what is going on in Louisiana.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The ERG loons have twigged they might have been played.

    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1091983264087183361?s=21

    It's the same cycle again and again since December 2017
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Foxy said:

    Considering how stable the polling has been for 18 months, I wouldn't belive a single poll. Indeed despite being done on the same day, this poll was not deemed newsworthy:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1090935574813462528?s=19
    Don’t need polls. Put your hand out the window and feel the change.

    The People’s vote ship has been scuttled by team Corbyn. They are completely boxed in by their own sequencing to whatever route May wants out of the impasse.

    voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him compared to two years ago. What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was a belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst.

    IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, because they are rightly confident of a working majority. The coming election is not about May, nor governments performance not even Brexit. It’s is about Corbyn and his crew fit for office. In the crisis and the negotiation, who do you want to battle for Britain? That’s the coming election.

    you are saying I don’t have enough evidence to support this? The whole point of a market, betting or otherwise is to be ahead of the game. its that easy to call it this morning, i can see it all lit up in bright colours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019
    Foxy said:

    I am curious as to what is going on in Louisiana.
    It was the game two weeks ago. The New Orleans Saints got an absolutely terrible decision from the refs that meant LA Rams went through, when the Saints should have had a clear penalty and won the game.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2019

    The ERG loons have twigged they might have been played.

    https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1091983264087183361?s=21

    No they've not been played and Jenkyns needs to STFU. They did say that the deal would be ratified if the backstop was dealt with that is literally what the amendment said.

    Yes there are other issues with the deal but they're not deal breakers. The backstop is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,773
    Alistair said:

    It's the same cycle again and again since December 2017
    Yesterday really was groundhog day...

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2019/feb/02/groundhog-day-2019-punxsutawney-phils-big-day-in-pictures
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    There is no incentive for the EU27 to extend if (a) Parliament remains deadlocked and (b) there is no indication of any event on the horizon which will end this condition. All that would do is give enough time for the UK to further complicate the European Parliament elections, by sending several dozen Hard Brexiteers to join the expected Eurosceptic surge.

    I know that the EU and Theresa May would make stiff competition for one another at the World Can-Kicking Championships, but they can't keep it going forever.

    Extend for a general election. That is May's backstop if she can't finesse/bludgeon her deal through this parliament.
  • Barnesian said:

    Listen to the clip. She makes clear she is referring to 2022. The BBC headline is misleading.
    She says she is not fighting the next election. I really do not see how she can turn around and say that engineering an election now would be consistent with that.

    Listen to the clip. She confirms that she is not fighting "the next General Election" and goes on to clarify "The next General Election is in 2022 and I think it is right that another leader leads us into that election". I don't think she has a problem with that. Boris and a few others might complain but they'll be in a small minority.

    Erm, you’re talking about an election she is hypothetically going to engineer. It makes a straight untruth out of her own words on that clip. It’s not as though the Conservative party is brimful of Mayites appalled at the thought of losing her generalship. Just about the only thing that unites them all is that they think she sucks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003

    England v Scotland... Its the final match of the 6 Nations.. at Twickenham... How often have the Jocks turned over England on their own turf? Last time at Twickers it was 62-21 IIRC
    Always a first time and we will have won it by then so it will just be a training match
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kinabalu said:

    Regarding youthful antics, I went to a '1960s' fancy dress party about 25 years ago (it was good - might go to another one at some point) and there was a girl there who came as Jackie Kennedy post assassination, pink Chanel suit, fake bloodstains, the works. It split opinion IIRC. Many people were offended whereas some loved it.

    If that girl was now Stella Creasy, would she (and should she) be in trouble?

    I think on balance not - and no - but I'm sure not everybody would agree.

    Please tell me it was Creasy. Please let it be so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,892
    edited February 2019

    It's evidence of something else, though, something we've discussed in the past. Given how easy it is to dig up youthful indiscretions a candidate, especially in the US, has to have none, or at least none where there's any evidence whatsoever of damn-foolery.
    Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.

    Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
    I don’t think it means anything of the sort.

    We’ve seen plenty of occasions when politicians have owned their youthful indiscretions and been unharmed by doing so. What the voters won’t tolerate is someone who campaigns as one thing, and then is presented with evidence of an earlier adulthood completely at odds with that which they have never admitted and still unconvincingly try to parse.

    Amongst other qualities, the electorate values authenticity quite highly in politicians, and punishes inauthenticity.


    (edit apologies for the almost duplicate post - Vanilla is doing funny things to me this morning.)



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    kinabalu said:

    Regarding youthful antics, I went to a '1960s' fancy dress party about 25 years ago (it was good - might go to another one at some point) and there was a girl there who came as Jackie Kennedy post assassination, pink Chanel suit, fake bloodstains, the works. It split opinion IIRC. Many people were offended whereas some loved it.

    If that girl was now Stella Creasy, would she (and should she) be in trouble?

    I think on balance not - and no - but I'm sure not everybody would agree.

    A couple of years ago, one Consrvative student group had a party with a Jimmy Saville theme.

  • It was the game two weeks ago. The New Orleans Saints got an absolutely terrible decision from the refs that meant LA Rams went through, when the Saints should have had a clear penalty and won the game.
    It was one of the worst decisions I've ever seen - any sport, anywhere. You could understand Saints fans being peed off.

    It's a shame not least because the standard of the officials in NFL is phenomenally high, generally. They just got that one wrong. It was a shocker though, and it made all the difference.
  • Sean_F said:

    A couple of years ago, one Consrvative student group had a party with a Jimmy Saville theme.

    I hope they had a 'Christmas with the Thatchers' tableau.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019

    It was one of the worst decisions I've ever seen - any sport, anywhere. You could understand Saints fans being peed off.

    It's a shame not least because the standard of the officials in NFL is phenomenally high, generally. They just got that one wrong. It was a shocker though, and it made all the difference.
    What are you talking about? Man and ball.....well at least man, the ball was just a bit late arriving....

    https://youtu.be/xjvZHMod_3E?t=16
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,003

    Not surprising with Corbyn leading the Party.
    On the subject of polls. Don't believe any of them. Even if ALL the Polls had the Tories 20% a head, I still wouldn't believe them. Comments such as "they got it right at the last election" prove nothing
    Leonard is seriously worse than Corbyn, can you believe it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    Brexit Colin not a fan of Gary
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,773
    dots said:

    Don’t need polls. Put your hand out the window and feel the change.

    The People’s vote ship has been scuttled by team Corbyn. They are completely boxed in by their own sequencing to whatever route May wants out of the impasse.

    voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him compared to two years ago. What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was a belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst.

    IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, because they are rightly confident of a working majority. The coming election is not about May, nor governments performance not even Brexit. It’s is about Corbyn and his crew fit for office. In the crisis and the negotiation, who do you want to battle for Britain? That’s the coming election.

    you are saying I don’t have enough evidence to support this? The whole point of a market, betting or otherwise is to be ahead of the game. its that easy to call it this morning, i can see it all lit up in bright colours.
    I see no change. While Corbyn is equivocating, the vast majority of Labour MPs are anti Brexit, and open about it. Aggrieved Remainers may not turn out for a few, but are certain to vote against the Tories, and like the anti Trump voters in the header are very motivated. May will leave the next election as long as she can, so the current Brexistentialist shambles is as distant as possible.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520
    edited February 2019
    Barnesian said:

    Not quite. She promised not to lead them into the next general election in 2022.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/12/theresa-may-signals-she-will-step-down-before-2022-election

    The DUP would undoubtedly vote against it as they risk losing their throttle hold. Perhaps some of the ERG for a similar reason? But not enough to avoid a 2/3rd majority if Labour vote for it.

    Yes, I think she could get the 2/3 for a GE. And she would lead the party into it. No time to select a replacement.

    Question in my mind is, given that the ERG and the DUP would hate a GE, will simply the threat of it be sufficient to bring them behind the deal?

    A part of TM will be disappointed, if so, because calling and winning a snap election is the dream scenario for her. Redemption!

    (By the deal I mean THE deal - since I don't see the EU offering anything beyond cosmetics on the Irish Backstop.)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Brexit Colin not a fan of Gary
    I think Colin is even more divisive than Brexit.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Just in case anyone doubts that Brett loves beer.

    https://youtu.be/gDumWOjmQfI
    It does seem as though Budweiser has missed a celebrity endorsement opportunity.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited February 2019


    Erm, you’re talking about an election she is hypothetically going to engineer. It makes a straight untruth out of her own words on that clip. It’s not as though the Conservative party is brimful of Mayites appalled at the thought of losing her generalship. Just about the only thing that unites them all is that they think she sucks.

    All true but there is sod all that Conservative MPs can do about it, having ducked more than once chance to ditch the PM already. Every other party would vote for an election, so you'd need almost the entire parliamentary Conservative Party to defy the whip. It is more likely Philip May would persuade her during a long walk that the game is no longer worth the candle.
  • What are you talking about? Man and ball.....well at least man, the ball was just a bit late arriving....

    https://youtu.be/xjvZHMod_3E?t=16
    Lol! That would have been a foul in just about any sport you care to name - soccer, rugby, cage fighting, whatever. The irony is that if he had watched the ball he could have intercepted.

    No axe to grind here either - my money was on the Rams, so I was a lucky winner. As regards tonite's match though, I think the Californians are the value at odds against with Betfair (about 2.2?) Their defence played super well against St Louis who have a better offense than N England. It should be a good, close game, but if I were betting, I'd have to take the outsider of the two.
  • Nigelb said:

    There aren’t enough billionaires even in the US to make the electoral difference...

    .. although a couple more are tempted to run as a result.

    Just taxing billionaires is popular, but:
    1) A memetically gifted opponent like Trump will make other voters worried too
    2) If you have a bunch of unfunded spending promises on top of the ones the billionaires are supposed to pay for they'll be right to worry
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019

    The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.

    I think the problem comes if it doesn't appear that it was just a one-off youthful indiscretion.

    That was my take on Jared O'Mara, he was said lots of pretty bad stuff on twitter, much of it years ago, but what really did for him was that fact he acted even worse in person only a few months before becoming an MP. There was little evidence he had changed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869

    I went to a couple of YunCons meeting when I was young. Was told there were attractive girls there.
    Wasn't true!
    Just loads of men like Nick Clegg?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited February 2019

    Lol! That would have been a foul in just about any sport you care to name - soccer, rugby, cage fighting, whatever. The irony is that if he had watched the ball he could have intercepted.

    No axe to grind here either - my money was on the Rams, so I was a lucky winner. As regards tonite's match though, I think the Californians are the value at odds against with Betfair (about 2.2?) Their defence played super well against St Louis who have a better offense than N England. It should be a good, close game, but if I were betting, I'd have to take the outsider of the two.
    For all the hate the Pats get, Belichick totally out-thought the Chiefs in the NFC game. Chiefs were the more talented team, but the genius of Belichick managed to nullify that advantage.

    My concern however is the likes of Gronk. He is so important to the Pats, but he is absolutely broken body and they keep just patching him enough to make those few valuable plays.
  • The correct attitude to student high jinks, fancy dress parties, thoughtlessness and antics is one of thankfulness.

    Most (all?) students do something stupid or careless or immature during the years at University. It is part of growing up.

    We’re just thankful we are lucky that our pasts are not trawled through in such fantastic detail by the professionally offended.

    This applies to Cameron and pigs, Balls and Nazi uniform, Clegg and cacti, US pols and pictures in stupid yearbooks.

    It is not the professionally offended trawling through social media records: it is political parties.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    I think the problem comes if it doesn't appear that it was just a one-off youthful indiscretion.

    That was my take on Jared O'Mara, he was said lots of pretty bad stuff on twitter, much of it years ago, but what really did for him was that fact he acted even worse in person only a few months before becoming an MP. There was little evidence he had changed.
    We were able to watch in great detail, and in real time how the outrage over the actions of someone is directly proportional to the tribe you are a member of. Those who would normall screech the loudest about such acts of misogyny sat beside him in parliament, and talked about “his journey”. If you are on the side of the angels, you can get away with an awful lot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,892

    Just taxing billionaires is popular, but:
    1) A memetically gifted opponent like Trump will make other voters worried too
    2) If you have a bunch of unfunded spending promises on top of the ones the billionaires are supposed to pay for they'll be right to worry
    I don’t think the latter will be a problem at the election - the Republicans have already abandoned any credibility on the deficit. The Democrats’ real problems will start once they are in government, particularly if there’s any recession.
    And people have adjusted to Trump’s schtick. It’s notable, for example, that Warren has pretty well shrugged off his attacks, if the head to head polling is anything to go by. It’s not going to shift opinions.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    It is not the professionally offended trawling through social media records: it is political parties.
    They are the same thing.

    Political parties contain insincere people who fake outrage at actions of their opponents.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    No they've not been played and Jenkyns needs to STFU. They did say that the deal would be ratified if the backstop was dealt with that is literally what the amendment said.

    Yes there are other issues with the deal but they're not deal breakers. The backstop is.
    Jenkyns and Baker are fools - I think there are a dozen or so at least who are angling solely for a No Deal scenarion. There may be up to 10 on the extreme right who may split off to the new party. This is why the final deal may well end up as a CU with a lot of cross-party support and recriminations in both of the main parties. After that who knows - we'll probably eventually settle back to a centre left and centre right party which will hoover up between them most voters. It's the way things tend to end up in most representative democracies becuase the alternatives are too Venezuela to contemplate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    felix said:

    Jenkyns and Baker are fools - I think there are a dozen or so at least who are angling solely for a No Deal scenarion. There may be up to 10 on the extreme right who may split off to the new party. This is why the final deal may well end up as a CU with a lot of cross-party support and recriminations in both of the main parties. After that who knows - we'll probably eventually settle back to a centre left and centre right party which will hoover up between them most voters. It's the way things tend to end up in most representative democracies becuase the alternatives are too Venezuela to contemplate.
    I'd honestly rather have Ed Balls in Parliament than Jenkyns.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    It does seem as though Budweiser has missed a celebrity endorsement opportunity.
    I thought we were talking about beer, not some sort of chemical pseudo-lager!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,520

    Mechanically, how do you think she could call a general election?

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
  • kinabalu said:

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    How does she get it past her Cabinet?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I thought we were talking about beer, not some sort of chemical pseudo-lager!
    We'll never now what he meant by 'beer'. On this point, the hearing was not suitably forensic in its questioning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    kinabalu said:

    I'm thinking the 2/3 route. But I'm also wondering whether just the threat of it might be sufficient incentive for the DUP and most of the ERG to end up, at the death and under severe pressure, supporting the deal - and thus with the help of some 'rebel' Labour MPs, that it will squeak over the line.

    In which case, the parliamentary situation will remain highly unstable and there must be a good chance of a GE later in the year.

    So, all in all, I quite like the 2.6 on Betfair for an election in 2019.
    The DUP are not going to support the Deal with the backstop and indeed it is the fact they have promised to VONC the government and force a general election if the Deal with the backstop is passed which is making May think she may have to call a general election in a few months time if her Deal passes, which almost certainly would be due to Labour rebel votes with those same Labour rebels then backing a VONC in the government

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,401

    We'll never now what he meant by 'beer'. On this point, the hearing was not suitably forensic in its questioning.
    LOL. But sad!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    MaxPB said:

    I'd honestly rather have Ed Balls in Parliament than Jenkyns.
    He would have the advantage of occupying two seats instead of one
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    A technical point. Apparently even if the deal (or any deal) passes, there still needs to be a chunk of legislation passed before Brexit day.

    What happens in the hypothetical scenario that May's deal (or version of) passes against the wishes of the DUP and Corbyn calls a VoNC the next day, which passes. That then either results in a General Election, or a Govt that doesn't support the deal and won't enact the legislation.

    What then???
This discussion has been closed.