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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump seems to be alienating an awful lot of voters
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Short of a spectacularly successful and necessary war, I don't see this turning around. Thank god.
https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1091728290337959936
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/02/northam-looked-ready-to-moonwalk-at-news-conference-before-his-wife-stopped-him.html
But I suspect even Warren, who is very unlikely to get the nomination, would beat Trump.
Their other problem is that there's a dynamic where the candidates are trying to out-compete each other on bold economic left-wingery. It's all very well to say you'll never vote for Trump now but if you think the other side will put your taxes up...
https://news.sky.com/story/may-could-call-june-election-and-vows-to-battle-for-britain-during-talks-for-new-brexit-deal-11626710
Oh Mike. OGH. It’s not a shock poll. What makes anyone think its a shock poll? Does it not tie perfectly with other klaxons, like leadership satisfaction ratings or best PM? Or Labour whip melting in the commons as power ebbs away from the nebulous brexit handling.
What gave Labour last GE result and kept them at high levels was the belief giving support to Labour would prevent / soften brexit. That bubble has burst. That’s the key bit.
Simultaneously voters have a different measure of Corbyn and the crew around him. Another bubble has burst, and can’t be reversed.
The Tories will now comfortably win the impending election with the same get Corbyn tactic that flopped last time. They could wallpaper the front of themselves so all you hear about their plans is some muffled battle for Britain sound bites. They can even include a dementia tax and still win.
There is always lots of irony in politics. We are now at a point the Labour moderates sat behind Corbyn happy to vote for that GE when May calls it, because the comfortable working majority May will win spears Corbyn and Team Corbyn.
Let’s layer the irony on shall we. IF brexit impasse continues, GE is number 10s preferred out, whilst best option for Team Corbyn now is some sort of second ref instead. But they cant. The People’s vote ship has been scuttled before it sailed. Team Corbyn have boxed themselves in with their own sequencing and vehement opposition to Mays deal. They have boxed themselves in to voting in commons for the fast approaching GE.
🤣 A rolling around laughing and crying emoticon just doesn’t do it justice.
Surprised but pleased by the rugby yesterday. Very unusual to see Italy have a sting in the tail, but it was too little, too late.
At the moment, relatively comfortable with the tiny sums I put on England/Ireland versus Italy to be the top scoring match.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47102614
If she pulls off a withdrawal agreement, there will be plenty more vital negotiations with the EU to do. It would be irresponsible for her to resign before her work is complete. And so on. And so forth.
The last Scottish Calcutta Cup victory at Twickenham took place in 1983 (although England and Scotland are, respectively, the 3rd and 4th best sides in the Northern Hemisphere at present, so the prospect shouldn't be discounted.)
This was over 35 years ago when he was in his early 20s and mucking around with his mates.
If his political opponents have evidence of unchanged racist attitudes that are affecting his politics today, then fine, but I don’t see why he should resign just because this photo has been discovered.
Heck of a thing to forget... unless it happened frequently...
It’s nothing to do with the rights/wrongs of what he did when he was a grown adult at university
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1090935574813462528?s=19
Remarkable how the Tories seems to be populated by folk who have no ability to read the mood of their own party until they are smacked up side the head 15 times.
The most remarkable thing in this morning's Sunday Times report is, however, the suggestion that "Whitehall has drawn up secret plans." Whitehall is incapable of doing secret anything. It's not so much a leaking sieve as a tap turned full-on. And stuck. I wouldn't take any VI poll as a useful indicator of electoral performance, irrespective of whether it was part of a trend or not. They are totally unreliable.
Doesn't this actually make FOUR (out of 13) since New Year with Tory leads of 5%+, (Yougov, Yougov, Yougov, Opinium) :-o ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
Or even, as with Cameron and the pig business, 'sort of credible' allegations.
Which tends to mean squeaky clean apparatchiks.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1086551900579860481?s=19
On the subject of polls. Don't believe any of them. Even if ALL the Polls had the Tories 20% a head, I still wouldn't believe them. Comments such as "they got it right at the last election" prove nothing
The moving average puts the Tories 1% ahead, 39% v 38% for Labour, and 20 seats short of an overall majority.
Having said that, I can see the attraction of a June poll for Mrs May in spite of the disaster last time. Bring it on!
The bastards.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/ed-balls-s-not-embarrassed-by-nazi-pic-1.36772
Against such a background May's reputation would, briefly at least, soar (after which the sad reality of Brexit, and a looming downturn, point to bad news all the way), and she must know she probably wont get another chance, ever.
Despite the Tories appearing more seriously divided, it is entirely credible that landing Brexit (noting the big 'if') will be the thing that splits Labour.
https://twitter.com/jillongovt/status/1091990376301371392
Theoretical questions on a GE, when hardly anyone expects one are quite misleading, as was well demonstrated 2 years ago. I remember the debate here was whether May would have a majority of 200 or just 100.
Imagine having May negotiate the FTA. She knows - and cares nothing - about business or services. She’s the last person who should be in charge. The idea that she should be given even more power to ignore everyone and go her own sweet way is horrific, frankly. She needs to go.
45% would definitely not vote for Trump versus 35% definitely not voting for Obama. By inspection, the difference seems to be statistically significant. Offset partly by 10% saying they probably would not vote for Trump versus 15% saying the same about Obama.
Conclusion is that Trump is much less popular than Obama was in the first two years of their presidencies. Quelle surprise.
People born in 2001 are now eligible to stand for Parliament, sorry to make everyone feel old.
How many times does she have to be smacked on the side of the head before these two realities penetrate her bone-headed brain?
This came to prominence via Fox, and follows on from the comprehensive faceplant over the 16-year old schoolboy in the US media.
I would love to see this marking the high-water mark of Twitter lynch mobs based on faked-up or irrelevant outrage, but unfortunately I do not see it happening.
What would have happened if he had refused to apologise until he had checked it out properly?
Labour could have strangled Brexit at birth if the Leadership had acted decisively. It has missed a legion of opportunities to swing its weight behind anti-Brexit sentiment. It is unlikely to escape censure from its own supporters when Brexit comes about. How much depends on what happens from here on in, but it's a bit late for Labour to be pivoting.
Whatever opprobrium the Tory Party suffers, it will be mitigated by the reaction of pro-EU Labour supporters to the behaviour of their Party's Leadership.
There's a lot of blame to spread around, and a lot of people to spread it on.
I am convinced that calling a snap election is TM's backstop if she cannot get her deal through this parliament. There is massive personal upside for her if she wins it and her downside (losing) is negligible, since her other options (adopt Labour policy or give up on Brexit) lead to an ignominious exit from number 10 in very short order.
Question is, will the backstop be needed? I think probably not, but this I am less sure about.
Remember that last year we saw the spectacle of a nominee for the Supreme Court being questioned for days about how much he loved beer at college more than thirty years ago.
Hopefully, as it becomes more obvious that pretty much everyone did silly things as students, society will become somewhat more tolerant of these things provided no-one got hurt at the time.
Someone referred to Ed Balls and the Nazi uniform up thread, I wonder how that story would have gone down now, seven years later, with all that’s happened in the meantime. I suspect he’d not have get away with it as easily as he did back in 2012.
Can you guess what some of the costumes we wore were like?
It just so happens it was one of the best house parties I’d ever been to and we all had a raucously fun and drunken time. I also met one of my old girlfriends there and have stayed in touch since.
I shudder to think that any photos of that leaked onto media/social media, now, could effectively destroy one’s character for life. And very (very) few people are so “clean” they’ve done nothing indiscreet in their youth, so why the ludicrous Puritanism and pitchfork mob attitude?
Is it any wonder people don’t go into politics?
Much also depends on who Trump's opponent is, as the new Glengariff poll from the key swing state of Michigan also reported on 538 shows while Biden leads Trump by a comfortable 53% to 40% and Sanders by 51% to 40%, Harris only leads Trump by 47% to 42% and Warren only leads Trump by 46% to 43% making the latter much more beatable from Trump's perspective
https://www.clickondetroit.com/michigan-politics/wdivdetroit-news-poll-trump-faces-uphill-re-election-battle-in-michigan
Assuming nothing else changes in that period, of course...
If we contemplate a scenario in which the UK leaves the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement expressly because the one on the table contained the backstop, then only two scenarios can follow. Either the Irish Government is forced to try to impose customs checkpoints all the way along the NI border - in which case, the backstop will have defeated itself by becoming the entire cause of the problem that it was meant to prevent. Or it point-blank refuses to impose such restrictions, in which case why on Earth was the backstop included in the WA in the first place?
One is inevitably drawn to the conclusion that the backstop is positively counter-productive in terms of achieving its stated purpose, and that the Brexiteers may therefore be right when they suggest that it is really a device to compel the UK either to accept a permanent customs union by the back door, or to give Northern Ireland up.