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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the

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  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    So are we, and they are better prepared than us, and they have to face the politics of it as well, and we have far more people in authority scared stiff by no deal (rightly or not) than they do.

    You're basically adopting the no deal brexiteer strategy of all we have to do is talk tough, and we will get what we want just because.
    No - brexiteers are a very real risk to our economy. I am coming from the view that TM has a WDA deal and with a few tweeks sensible mps will pass it
    The EU, and May, have been saying for months it will not be tweaked. Unless the EU have been lying this entire time, and we will have to hope they were, chasing after this unicorn at the risk of no deal is no different to the no dealers and the ultra remainers.
    Something has to give in the next few weeks and I expect the deal or similar to pass

    But in fairness, there are other views and I should caveat mine with IMHO
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    Seeing as he is charged under a 2009 act it is reasonable to assume that some of these charges maybe at a date of when he was actually First Minister of Scotland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Andrea Leadsom has gone full Dambusters:

    More off on her Todd I think...
  • I am very uncomfortable with that daily record front page.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780
    In this instance that's fair enough though isn't it? And a wonderful quote.

    Her motivations may be other than just an innocent observer of the passing of time, but I doubt you're going to fall for that. In fact you haven't.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I remember Andrea as a parochial councillor in Oxfordshire when I worked there...even then I think she was overreaching
  • ydoethur said:

    Andrea Leadsom has gone full Dambusters:

    More off on her Todd I think...
    That is very good
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    Andrea Leadsom has gone full Dambusters:

    More off on her Todd I think...
    That is very good
    I wondered if anyone would get it.

    I could have been more obscure by saying I'll get my Coates.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,902


    I am more confident that a deal will be done as no deal becomes stark reality

    For my own sanity I have to believe in a deal, no deal is unimaginable

    Given your apparent vintage, I'm surprised you can consider anything "unimaginable". Anything and everything is imaginable and possible given the right or wrong circumstances. We could very easily be sitting here in seven weeks counting down the hours until we exit with No Deal.

    The inability of the Government to make adequate and proper contingency plans for No Deal is the aspect that annoys me far more than the parliamentary shenanigans. Any project and I mean any project has to consider all possible risks and put in place mitigating measures to counter the adverse impacts.

    When the project to leave the EU was started, I cannot believe somebody didn't ask "what if there's No Deal?". If it comes out the Civil Service were instructed NOT to plan for No Deal, I would hold May and her Government in complete contempt - their negligence would be appalling.

    I am therefore forced to believe there are contingency plans in place but clearly the political dimension (Project Fear) means the illusion of ill-preparedness is being weaponised in order to get the WDA accepted and through parliament in time.

    The problem with bluffing is when your opponent sees through your bluff and calls or raises. If you want them to believe you are sitting with a full house and you have a pair of twos then you have to hope you can bluff well. The problem is the reputation of Project Fear was undermined by the lack of impact of the 2016 referendum result and indeed some would argue the devaluation of sterling was actually an economic positive (much as those who argue the same thing happening in September 1992 was a benefit despite the political disaster it inflicted on John Major).
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andrea Leadsom has gone full Dambusters:

    More off on her Todd I think...
    That is very good
    I wondered if anyone would get it.

    I could have been more obscure by saying I'll get my Coates.
    I am old enough to have watched the original film dozens of times
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    So are we, and they are better prepared than us, and they have to face the politics of it as well, and we have far more people in authority scared stiff by no deal (rightly or not) than they do.

    You're basically adopting the no deal brexiteer strategy of all we have to do is talk tough, and we will get what we want just because.
    No - brexiteers are a very real risk to our economy. I am coming from the view that TM has a WDA deal and with a few tweeks sensible mps will pass it
    The EU, and May, have been saying for months it will not be tweaked. Unless the EU have been lying this entire time, and we will have to hope they were, chasing after this unicorn at the risk of no deal is no different to the no dealers and the ultra remainers.
    Something has to give in the next few weeks and I expect the deal or similar to pass

    But in fairness, there are other views and I should caveat mine with IMHO
    To me, leaving on time looks good value still. It covers both Deal and no Deal, Personally, I think the latter more likely as we have set the controls for the heart of the sun.
  • stodge said:


    I am more confident that a deal will be done as no deal becomes stark reality

    For my own sanity I have to believe in a deal, no deal is unimaginable

    Given your apparent vintage, I'm surprised you can consider anything "unimaginable". Anything and everything is imaginable and possible given the right or wrong circumstances. We could very easily be sitting here in seven weeks counting down the hours until we exit with No Deal.

    The inability of the Government to make adequate and proper contingency plans for No Deal is the aspect that annoys me far more than the parliamentary shenanigans. Any project and I mean any project has to consider all possible risks and put in place mitigating measures to counter the adverse impacts.

    When the project to leave the EU was started, I cannot believe somebody didn't ask "what if there's No Deal?". If it comes out the Civil Service were instructed NOT to plan for No Deal, I would hold May and her Government in complete contempt - their negligence would be appalling.

    I am therefore forced to believe there are contingency plans in place but clearly the political dimension (Project Fear) means the illusion of ill-preparedness is being weaponised in order to get the WDA accepted and through parliament in time.

    The problem with bluffing is when your opponent sees through your bluff and calls or raises. If you want them to believe you are sitting with a full house and you have a pair of twos then you have to hope you can bluff well. The problem is the reputation of Project Fear was undermined by the lack of impact of the 2016 referendum result and indeed some would argue the devaluation of sterling was actually an economic positive (much as those who argue the same thing happening in September 1992 was a benefit despite the political disaster it inflicted on John Major).
    I really think that is another fair summary.

    Really who knows
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    She's being uncharacteristically modest about her own part in Hitler's downfall.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
  • I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
  • Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    We do lose our trade deals that go via the EU arrangements, so it does have worldwide implications, but outside our corner of the smallest continent, those will be transient.

    It is the difference between the egg and the bacon at breakfast. The chicken is involved, but the pig is committed.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    Only with a shotgun and a broken breech
  • Panic is clearly now setting in that No Deal is upon us, and rightly so. Presumably a few simple souls are still taking refuse in Rees-Mogg’s crock-of-gold tomfoolery. They shouldn’t. He will vanish like early snow.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,734

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    A lot, depending on if the remainers who are pretending to want to just delay get their way first. If we don't delay, then the pressure for revocation becomes much much stronger.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    Yeah, but we know that she is a very poor listener.

  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    It will be many years but investment in new tech will stop in time
  • I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    Impossible without a referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    Ah, but people will. Even on here just the other day people were disputing whether people were voting to leave the EU or just against Cameron's deal, even though the question in that regard was very clear, and of course leavers and remainers are often insisting certain things were not said which were, or that people did not know certain things despite being told them by those same people last time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    It will be many years but investment in new tech will stop in time
    Yes, I have always said that Brexit will happen with a whimper not a bang.
  • Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    It will be many years but investment in new tech will stop in time
    Except there will be new new-tech. Investment in new stuff will never stop so long as there's new stuff, and there will always be new stuff in part because some of the new stuff is simply a ripoff of old stuff.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    It will be many years but investment in new tech will stop in time
    Except there will be new new-tech. Investment in new stuff will never stop so long as there's new stuff, and there will always be new stuff in part because some of the new stuff is simply a ripoff of old stuff.
    Of course, but the question is over geography rather than engineering advances.
  • Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    It will be many years but investment in new tech will stop in time
    Except there will be new new-tech. Investment in new stuff will never stop so long as there's new stuff, and there will always be new stuff in part because some of the new stuff is simply a ripoff of old stuff.
    It will relocate into the EU bit by bit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,734

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    Did he say he was converted by talking to his patients?
  • Scott_P said:
    I regret but I do not hold much hope of any of them listening even to the Queen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    It's a pretty generic comment, much in the vein of her Xmas messages, so not sure there's much in it even if it is indeed unusual.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    Did he say he was converted by talking to his patients?
    There is such an obvious pun could be made there...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    If I were Jason Holder and wanted to be annoying, I would declare now and say I was trying for a two day finish.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    Did he say he was converted by talking to his patients?
    In Soviet Russia the only place to speak freely was in the Gulags. In US fundamentalist circles, the place for gays to meet up is at conversion therapy group.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through?
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    Frankly, any form of Brexit and those jobs days are numbered, but no-one can say that they were not warned.
    Ah, but people will. Even on here just the other day people were disputing whether people were voting to leave the EU or just against Cameron's deal, even though the question in that regard was very clear, and of course leavers and remainers are often insisting certain things were not said which were, or that people did not know certain things despite being told them by those same people last time.
    Yes! I, dots, was the one saying some leave vote was protest against Cameron and Osborne, and their secretive negotiation (to this day do we know what Camerons red lines were?) because I genuinely don’t believe Mogg speaks for 17.4 million leave votes, that the definition of Brexit in the minds of those 17.4 million when they cast their votes is same as what goes on between Bernard Jenkins ears, which is the brexit we are getting in a few weeks time.

    So correct where I am wrong, if I am misreading this, project fear, condemned by Brexiteers as laughable, is now being used to swing country behind May’s “imperfect” deal, with brexiteers who have gone over to the imperfect deal saying we should heed these fearful warnings because they are real... and all this is being done in the name of restoring trust and faith in politics?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    I sometimes wonder if the not-secretly gay homophobes get really annoyed by such cases, as everyone will assume they are also secretly gay, when perhaps they are just arseholes.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Maybe "the bigger picture" is the new 10,000 piece jigsaw of Buckingham Palace she's just started working on.
  • Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
  • Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    This is all pre Brexit
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Germany has slowed down because it is a major manufacturing exporter, and China has reduced imports, but the basis of its economy is fundamentally sound.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    dots said:



    Yes! I, dots, was the one saying some leave vote was protest against Cameron and Osborne, and their secretive negotiation (to this day do we know what Camerons red lines were?) because I genuinely don’t believe Mogg speaks for 17.4 million leave votes, that the definition of Brexit in the minds of those 17.4 million when they cast their votes is same as what goes on between Bernard Jenkins ears, which is the brexit we are getting in a few weeks time.

    So correct where I am wrong, if I am misreading this, project fear, condemned by Brexiteers as laughable, is now being used to swing country behind May’s “imperfect” deal, with brexiteers who have gone over to the imperfect deal saying we should heed these fearful warnings because they are real... and all this is being done in the name of restoring trust and faith in politics?

    I don't quite follow your point. I certainly don't think Mogg represents all 17.4million leave voters. I know he does not, I voted leave myself. That doesn't change that anyone arguing the leave vote was not about, well, leaving the EU, because some people were thinking of Cameron's deal, is just plain wrong. I don't care what your motivation was, while what constituted leave was uncertain it was at least very clear that we would leave under a leave vote, and remain under a remain vote. Whatever leave or indeed remain ended up looking like, one is leave and one is remain, and the two do not cross.

    My main point was that many leavers claim their way is the only thing that satisfied the 17.4million and that is plainly wrong, since many wanted different things, and in any case the rest of the country is relevant here. Some also said things which they now act like would be unacceptable. But some remainers also insist people had no idea what they were voting for, when remain did have a campaign and did warn of many of the things that have happened and, frankly, they were right about.

    Both sides try to have it both ways. Leave that the vote must be respected but only in a narrow way which cannot be extrapolated to all leave voters in the way they pretend. Remainers in that people did not understand what remain told them last time or they are pretending their own campaign did not warn about these things, even as other remainers happily point out that they did indeed warn us.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited January 2019

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    Impossible without a referendum
    Impossible without her head - no reason why it would require an immediate referendum as an election would be more likely once a new Tory leader was appointed.

    In many ways it would be the sane approach - at no level can we agree what we want so let's step back from the cliff edge and try again...

    Also I suspect it would annoy the EU so much that many leavers would actively enjoy it...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2019
    In terms of Aircraft manufacturing what Brexit is doing is forcing us to make a choice. For decades we have tried to play both sides, half in the Sherman camp, half in the EU camp.
    This is no longer possible after brexit, we lose all influence in Brussels so we have no choice to go USA only and if the truth were told this choice was obvious when BAE sold it's Airbus stake and decide to focus on the US market.
    The UK has 15% of the F35 program, which the whole world wants to buy and is embedded in a lot more. Boeing are running Ads on the TV about their commitment to the UK.
    The MoD is not even inviting Airbus to tender for the new AEW program, the new spy plance program and Williamson stands up to announce the new fighter project and yet again Airbus is not there.
    Add in the most stupid decision made in the whole brexit process, that of the EU kicking the UK out of the Galileo program.

    It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame.

    Broughton better hope Boeing will buy them off Airbus.
  • Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    This is all pre Brexit
    No, it's really not. It's all post-Brexit vote and where we are constantly being told that "jobs are moving to Europe" already.

    Anyone with self-awareness would look at what is happening in the real world, pause and wonder if maybe, just maybe, their assumptions are wrong.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,680
    Chris said:

    She's being uncharacteristically modest about her own part in Hitler's downfall.
    Did she say it was because he was a father
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Labour on manueveres

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-labour-mps-second-referendum-latest-eu-a8745231.html

    Mr Murray’s would commit the government to holding a referendum offering a choice between a Brexit deal that guarantees “full participation in the single market”, as previously promised by Labour, and remaining in the EU.

    The amendment submitted by Mr Gapes would “allow the British public an opportunity to have a final say” on leaving the EU, while Ms Smith’s would see ministers legislate for a vote on “whether or not the UK should leave


    The last two seem really woolly, if you're going for it it seems incumbent to be a little more detailed than that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    eek said:

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    Impossible without a referendum
    Impossible without her head - no reason why it would require an immediate referendum as an election would be more likely once a new Tory leader was appointed.

    In many ways it would be the sane approach - at no level can we agree what we want so let's step back from the cliff edge and try again...

    Also I suspect it would annoy the EU so much that many leavers would actively enjoy it...
    Impossible without both. No Deal Brexit won't be a disaster though, just a slow slippery slope of economic, social, political and diplomatic decline. Not the end of the world though, and nothing like a zombie apocalypse, except perhaps in a few isolated sectors.
  • Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Germany is in recession? When did that happen? I'm sure Andra Neil would be prolapsing on Twitter if that were the case.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Chris said:

    She's being uncharacteristically modest about her own part in Hitler's downfall.
    Did she say it was because he was a father
    Adolf Hitler was not a father.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Omnium said:

    o/t: Is anyone else surprised that the Patisserie Valerie story hasn't had greater legs in the press? It's a huge scandal.

    What is the story though? Fraud, probably, but how and by whom? Until there are more details, it is stuck on the financial pages.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    The existing contracts are safe but the danger is to the new generation of wings
    It was going to move despite Brexit. Once BAe sold its stake it was doomed
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    Hung out with a lot of nice people from Sheffield tonight. Your Lord Mayor’s an interesting character!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    She's being uncharacteristically modest about her own part in Hitler's downfall.
    Did she say it was because he was a father
    Adolf Hitler was not a father.
    Winston was, which is why he won, of course...
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Germany is in recession? When did that happen? I'm sure Andra Neil would be prolapsing on Twitter if that were the case.
    He has pointed it out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    This is all pre Brexit
    You do know the EU is still printing money?

    Without that artificial stimulation I dread to think what their growth would be like
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Omnium said:

    o/t: Is anyone else surprised that the Patisserie Valerie story hasn't had greater legs in the press? It's a huge scandal.

    What is the story though? Fraud, probably, but how and by whom? Until there are more details, it is stuck on the financial pages.
    The former CFO has been arrested so I suspect the editors are cautious about printing too much
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    She's being uncharacteristically modest about her own part in Hitler's downfall.
    Did she say it was because he was a father
    Adolf Hitler was not a father.
    There is some dispute about that is there not? It has been suggested that he fathered a child by a French girl whilst serving during World War 1.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Er, wouldn't that require we start all over again, Len? I mean, I'm sure you believe Jeremy to be super competent and all, but presumably you expected him to take the better part of 2 years to come up with his proper deal that will unite the nation
    Foxy said:
    It's purpose wasn't to come to an agreement, for either of them. Surely no one expected that. But they can each claim they at least tried.

    And given he still seems to be pushing for a GE and a deal, rather than a referendum to remain, call it half a point for May?
  • notme2 said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Germany is in recession? When did that happen? I'm sure Andra Neil would be prolapsing on Twitter if that were the case.
    He has pointed it out.
    Oh, you mean 'after negative GDP in Q3 it's possible there was German technical recession in H2 2018. Or v close to it.'

    Using the Neil hysteria filter, that means they've got fuck all to worry about.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kle4 said:

    Er, wouldn't that require we start all over again, Len? I mean, I'm sure you believe Jeremy to be super competent and all, but presumably you expected him to take the better part of 2 years to come up with his proper deal that will unite the nation
    Foxy said:
    It's purpose wasn't to come to an agreement, for either of them. Surely no one expected that. But they can each claim they at least tried.

    And given he still seems to be pushing for a GE and a deal, rather than a referendum to remain, call it half a point for May?
    Len has always opposed a #peoplesvote, so no surprise there.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    edited January 2019

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Which sound decisions by the government in recent years would you attribute the economic good news Philip? Was the bit of new broom after Osborne was dumped a helpful thing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Er, wouldn't that require we start all over again, Len? I mean, I'm sure you believe Jeremy to be super competent and all, but presumably you expected him to take the better part of 2 years to come up with his proper deal that will unite the nation
    Foxy said:
    It's purpose wasn't to come to an agreement, for either of them. Surely no one expected that. But they can each claim they at least tried.

    And given he still seems to be pushing for a GE and a deal, rather than a referendum to remain, call it half a point for May?
    Len has always opposed a #peoplesvote, so no surprise there.
    Indeed, not a surprise, but that he's still pushing the far more unrealistic scenario of 'renegotiate the whole damn thing, properly this time' presumably gives further cover to Corbyn to think that's still viable.
  • dots said:

    Foxy said:

    sarissa said:

    kle4 said:

    stodge said:


    A fair assessment

    Thank you for the kind word - I thought through this on my home from work but I keep thinking I'm missing something.

    The one other factor might be the EU and the degree to which they are willing to prevent a No Deal. if we get down to close to the wire, the EU may seek to extend A50 and it may be the WA isn't as non-negotiable as we might think.

    If the EU blinks, it's possible May can get enough concession to make the WA acceptable to either the "tack hard" or "tack soft" camp. I wonder which way she'll go.
    If she gets a clear indication next week of parliaments direction of travel I have little doubt the EU will get serious
    Clear? From Parliament?! I mean, really.
    It is just possible - lets see
    And why would the EU not have been serious before when May has presumably been telling them for months that she needs changes to get this through? They just keep getting angrier that she is saying the same thing.

    As for wait and see, she has used up the reasonable allotment of giving her the benefit of the doubt.
    They are looking down the barrel of no deal in 7 weeks
    How can they do that when the muzzle is in our mouth?
    I suppose you can look down the barrel from two directions.
    I am sure that the EU are dreading all those Airbus jobs moving there....
    You really lack self-awareness don't you?

    "Despite Brexit" the UK's jobs market is at its most successful ever, while in the Eurozone most big nations are facing or in recession. Germany even is in recession, while the UK is growing faster than all other G7 European nations. "Despite Brexit".
    Which sound decisions by the government in recent years would you attribute the economic good news Philip? Was the bit of new broom after Osborne was dumped a helpful thing?
    Two things:

    1: Sound policies by Osborne.

    2: Welfare reform so work paid more than welfare did - credit to Osborne and IDS [only thing I'd ever credit IDS with]

    I don't see what anyone's done post-Osborne/IDS that's worthy of mentioning.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    eek said:

    I was listening to a report from Davos today when it was stated that no deal will not just damage the UK and the EU but will have huge implications across the world

    Given that the UK can avoid no deal at the stroke of a pen by revoking Article 50, just how much pressure do you think Theresa May will therefore come under to do just that?
    Impossible without a referendum
    Impossible without her head - no reason why it would require an immediate referendum as an election would be more likely once a new Tory leader was appointed.

    In many ways it would be the sane approach - at no level can we agree what we want so let's step back from the cliff edge and try again...

    Also I suspect it would annoy the EU so much that many leavers would actively enjoy it...
    Impossible without both. No Deal Brexit won't be a disaster though, just a slow slippery slope of economic, social, political and diplomatic decline. Not the end of the world though, and nothing like a zombie apocalypse, except perhaps in a few isolated sectors.
    That's my assessment...a hard Brexit would drive us slowly into a poorer, divided country at the edge of Europe with crap weather... At the moment the great ship UK Britannia is hardly setting the world on fire, so Brexit will drive us from a low bar into a lower bar...not the end of the world, but fucking depressing all the same....
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Er, wouldn't that require we start all over again, Len? I mean, I'm sure you believe Jeremy to be super competent and all, but presumably you expected him to take the better part of 2 years to come up with his proper deal that will unite the nation
    Foxy said:
    It's purpose wasn't to come to an agreement, for either of them. Surely no one expected that. But they can each claim they at least tried.

    And given he still seems to be pushing for a GE and a deal, rather than a referendum to remain, call it half a point for May?
    Len has always opposed a #peoplesvote, so no surprise there.
    Indeed, not a surprise, but that he's still pushing the far more unrealistic scenario of 'renegotiate the whole damn thing, properly this time' presumably gives further cover to Corbyn to think that's still viable.
    Len is a unicorn called Lula Fantasy
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019
    @ralphmalph

    "...Williamson stands up to announce the new fighter project and yet again Airbus is not there..."

    True. But Leonardo is part of the Tempest team. Plus we threw £239milion at them last week for some choppers. Unless you think Italy isn't European... :)

    "...It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame..."

    I must have missed this 100% partnership when the MOD announced its reengagement with Artec to purchase Boxers. Unless you think Holland and Germany aren't European... :)

    "...The UK has 15% of the F35 program, which the whole world wants to buy..."

    Although it's not as good as the F22 and the wings are too small, I like the F35 rather a lot. But if 15% of one plane built in the US is the sum total of the UK aviation industry then we are fucked.

    Incidentally, did you miss the recent Rhinemetall proposal for the Challenger upgrade?. The only other competitor is BAE with its "Black Night" concept and - whoops - BAE just sold its UK land interests to Rhinemetall. Matsimus quite likes it.

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M. So we got the Rivet Joint from Boeing, the Boxers from Rhinemetall, etc. So the spyplane purchase you refer to (the Wedgetail) is more a case of that than that.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    @ralphmalph

    "...Williamson stands up to announce the new fighter project and yet again Airbus is not there..."

    True. But Leonardo is part of the Tempest team. Plus we threw £239milion at them last week for some choppers. Unless you think Italy isn't European... :)

    "...It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame..."

    I must have missed this 100% partnership when the MOD announced its reengagement with Artec to purchase Boxers. Unless you think Holland and Germany aren't European... :)

    "...The UK has 15% of the F35 program, which the whole world wants to buy..."

    Although it's not as good as the F22 and the wings are too small, I like the F35 rather a lot. But if 15% of one plane built in the US is the sum total of the UK aviation industry then we are fucked.

    Incidentally, did you miss the recent Rhinemetall proposal for the Challenger upgrade?. The only other competitor is BAE with its "Black Night" concept and - whoops - BAE just sold it's UK land interests to Rhinemetall

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M. So we got the Rivet Joint from Boeing, the Boxers from Rhinemetall, etc. So the spyplane purchase you refer to (the Wedgetail) is more a case of that than that.

    My first sentence "In terms of Arircraft Manufacturing."
    Why quote Boxers and Challenger upgrades are they aircraft?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019

    viewcode said:

    @ralphmalph

    "...Williamson stands up to announce the new fighter project and yet again Airbus is not there..."

    True. But Leonardo is part of the Tempest team. Plus we threw £239milion at them last week for some choppers. Unless you think Italy isn't European... :)

    "...It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame..."

    I must have missed this 100% partnership when the MOD announced its reengagement with Artec to purchase Boxers. Unless you think Holland and Germany aren't European... :)

    "...The UK has 15% of the F35 program, which the whole world wants to buy..."

    Although it's not as good as the F22 and the wings are too small, I like the F35 rather a lot. But if 15% of one plane built in the US is the sum total of the UK aviation industry then we are fucked.

    Incidentally, did you miss the recent Rhinemetall proposal for the Challenger upgrade?. The only other competitor is BAE with its "Black Night" concept and - whoops - BAE just sold it's UK land interests to Rhinemetall

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M. So we got the Rivet Joint from Boeing, the Boxers from Rhinemetall, etc. So the spyplane purchase you refer to (the Wedgetail) is more a case of that than that.

    My first sentence "In terms of Arircraft Manufacturing."
    Why quote Boxers and Challenger upgrades are they aircraft?
    Depends how hard you throw them.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    viewcode said:

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M.

    And thank God for that as 9 times out of 10 it is a better choice than pissing away vast amounts of time and money reinventing the wheel badly.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    glw said:

    viewcode said:

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M.

    And thank God for that as 9 times out of 10 it is a better choice than pissing away vast amounts of time and money reinventing the wheel badly.
    Agreed. We can talk about the Nimrod Mk4 and its wacky wings that don't fit if you like. Shudders... :(
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    @ralphmalph

    "...Williamson stands up to announce the new fighter project and yet again Airbus is not there..."

    True. But Leonardo is part of the Tempest team. Plus we threw £239milion at them last week for some choppers. Unless you think Italy isn't European... :)

    "...It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame..."

    I must have missed this 100% partnership when the MOD announced its reengagement with Artec to purchase Boxers. Unless you think Holland and Germany aren't European... :)

    "...The UK has 15% of the F35 program, which the whole world wants to buy..."

    Although it's not as good as the F22 and the wings are too small, I like the F35 rather a lot. But if 15% of one plane built in the US is the sum total of the UK aviation industry then we are fucked.

    Incidentally, did you miss the recent Rhinemetall proposal for the Challenger upgrade?. The only other competitor is BAE with its "Black Night" concept and - whoops - BAE just sold it's UK land interests to Rhinemetall

    To perhaps be a bit less shouty about it for a moment, for the past few years the MOD has started buying off the shelf instead of long involved developments like the F35 or A400M. So we got the Rivet Joint from Boeing, the Boxers from Rhinemetall, etc. So the spyplane purchase you refer to (the Wedgetail) is more a case of that than that.

    My first sentence "In terms of Arircraft Manufacturing."
    Why quote Boxers and Challenger upgrades are they aircraft?
    Depends how hard you throw them.
    LOL
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Charles said:

    Oh my

    Prominent US ‘gay conversion therapist’ David Matheson divorces wife and comes out as gay

    https://news.sky.com/story/prominent-us-gay-conversion-therapist-david-matheson-divorces-wife-and-comes-out-as-gay-11616605

    Hung out with a lot of nice people from Sheffield tonight. Your Lord Mayor’s an interesting character!
    Is he the Green guy who was on the last series of Hunted? Quite a character.
  • kle4 said:

    Not all campaigners support this. One said it was "f***ing mad" & no different to Downing St policy of May's deal vs no-deal

    Indeed. It would also make a lie of their fears of no deal. Bit of an unnecessary scorched earth strategy, I think they're well placed if they focus. People are vaguely softening on various options, but don't actually appear that close to a decision yet, which means it is all to play for for PV.
    Well it certainly makes clear they have no interest in another vote for the sake of democracy but only as a means of making sure we don't leave. Which of course we have known all along. We were just waiting for them to be honest about it. .
    As a means of making sure we don't leave without the specific consent of the people for the withdrawal agreement.
    Nah, spin it how you like William. This just shows exactly what we have always known. The PV folks see a 2nd referendum as a smokescreen for Remain. At least old Uncle Vince has been honest about it saying there is no version of Brexit he would ever support. The rest are just dishonest. Which is what we expect from politicians I suppose.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    kle4 said:

    Not all campaigners support this. One said it was "f***ing mad" & no different to Downing St policy of May's deal vs no-deal

    Indeed. It would also make a lie of their fears of no deal. Bit of an unnecessary scorched earth strategy, I think they're well placed if they focus. People are vaguely softening on various options, but don't actually appear that close to a decision yet, which means it is all to play for for PV.
    Well it certainly makes clear they have no interest in another vote for the sake of democracy but only as a means of making sure we don't leave. Which of course we have known all along. We were just waiting for them to be honest about it. .
    As a means of making sure we don't leave without the specific consent of the people for the withdrawal agreement.
    Nah, spin it how you like William. This just shows exactly what we have always known. The PV folks see a 2nd referendum as a smokescreen for Remain. At least old Uncle Vince has been honest about it saying there is no version of Brexit he would ever support. The rest are just dishonest. Which is what we expect from politicians I suppose.
    Why wouldn’t the same 17.4 million, or even more of them come out for it a second time?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    edited January 2019
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Vacuum news, for which I'm sure you're all on tenterhooks.

    Numatic, which makes Henry and Hetty vacuums, is employing a further 300 people in Chard, Somerset. That brings the net UK vacuum cleaner manufacturing job +/- to +298 over the past week.

    As you already know, your office cleaner uses Henrys (or, if your colleagues are filthy, the imperious 1200W Charles model) because they are cheap as chips and utterly bombproof, even if they are heavy.

    Image result for weight is sign of reliability
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Has the Question Time audience laughed at Labour's "Brexit policy" yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    1) She can toughen it as much as she wants, how does that get the EU on board?

    2) How long before the DUP deny this latest report they are softening?
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    1) She can toughen it as much as she wants, how does that get the EU on board?

    2) How long before the DUP deny this latest report they are softening?
    It will be evident in the votes next tuesday
  • Good night folks
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Scott_P said:
    I felt since last Sunday its turned and going Mays way, this is the decisive moment, if the EU play ball and time limit the backstop it dramatically changes the parliamentary arithmetic.

    I think the EU will play ball because their signals are screaming just tell us what you want, as soon as the arithmetic stacks up in the commons the EU will be happy to do what is necessary for the orderly WA to happen instead of outright disorder. If a backstop “time limit” amendment passes the commons this week, that’s enough, its all EU need to see and hear, the deal is done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    dots said:

    Scott_P said:
    I felt since last Sunday its turned and going Mays way, this is the decisive moment, if the EU play ball and time limit the backstop it dramatically changes the parliamentary arithmetic.

    I think the EU will play ball because their signals are screaming just tell us what you want
    ....and Leo Varadkar is screaming "We can't have a hard border...."
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752
    Scott_P said:
    If true, that would be almost enough for it to pass.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    And you were probably right the whole time (or if not quite at the upper end, then quite a lot at least) - the question was not whether if the DUP were on side would many Tories find themselves able to do the same, it was always what could bring the DUP on board which would also pass muster with the EU. Varadkar seems to be digging in, content that he won't have to face a hard border no matter what, despite some rumblings from elsewhere in the EU, and the EU still seem really really against opening up the WA itself, which seems to be a big stumbling block.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    It is almost a little odd seeing one's previously pretty obscure local MP suddenly having their name bandied about next to serious governmental strategies. Must have have been odd for Corbyn's constituents for example. By contrast Dr Murrison was a junior minister, and select committee chair, so not totally unknown, but I'm still not used to seeing him referenced.
This discussion has been closed.