I'd urge people not to get their hopes up on the (amended) deal that is plan A2.0. Not worth counting any of these chickens until they have hatched, laid eggs of their own and hatched their own offspring, such is the determination to resist/overturn from various quarters.
Looks like someone had a word with him afterwards, or wrestled his phone off him. https://twitter.com/PeterWelch/status/1087857790901735426 I know deleting tweets won't prevent the story doing the rounds, but maybe its worth doing and just leaving up the apology?
I would love it it Murrison's amendment passes and Cooper's fails.
Murrison is seeking a solution to put this to bed. Cooper isn't seeking a solution just a can kicking that drags this out for months at which point we are right back where we are. At which point the MPs backing this are not so secretively hoping they can back Remain.
If you want to take No Deal off the table then the solution is simple. Vote for the Deal. It's not rocket science.
Can’t believe that none of the Leavers here have yet gone with the line “PV discovered to be a massive fraud! ...in other news, there are financial problems at Patisserie Valerie”
Can an expert tell us what would happen at the end of a time-limited backstop?
A good question. It seems like the general idea is without a time limit there's no incentive to come to an agreement which removes the need for a backstop, so you need a limit to ensure you don't need it at all? But obviously things don't always work out, and the sides are posturing about what they'd even do in the event of no agreement at all, so who the hell knows anymore, if nothing is still agreed at the end of this nebulously timed time limit.
I'd agree with philip_thompson to the extent that Murrison's idea at least attempts to put things to bed, even if it might not be successful, whereas Cooper is not even attempting that.
Can’t believe that none of the Leavers here have yet gone with the line “PV discovered to be a massive fraud! ...in other news, there are financial problems at Patisserie Valerie”
Leave voters are too filled with unbridled rage to pick up on such comedic opportunities.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
It is obvious we are going 100% partnership with the Americans and the EU only have them selves to blame.
It's not 100% because Alenia and MBDA are on "Team Tempest" (not that TT will ever amount to anything) but I broadly agree.
This US alignment comes at a steep price though. When QNLZ goes on here first operational deployment to the Pacific in 2020 there will be a USMC F-35B squadron embarked and there will 100% be 'NOFORN' areas on the ship. ie US citizens only. How's that sovereignty looking?
A key plank of US strategic doctrine is to prevent allies from developing autonomous carrier capabilities. They keep their boot on the neck of the French carrier effort by completely controlling the deck landing qualification pipeline and F-35B co-operation serves a similar function for the UK.
Putting aside the fact he appears to know nothing about US history, the federal employers aren't technically working for free. They will be paid for all their work once the government reopens, not that that helps those folk at the moment pay the mortgage, food etc.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
Can an expert tell us what would happen at the end of a time-limited backstop?
A good question. It seems like the general idea is without a time limit there's no incentive to come to an agreement which removes the need for a backstop, so you need a limit to ensure you don't need it at all? But obviously things don't always work out, and the sides are posturing about what they'd even do in the event of no agreement at all, so who the hell knows anymore, if nothing is still agreed at the end of this nebulously timed time limit.
I'd agree with philip_thompson to the extent that Murrison's idea at least attempts to put things to bed, even if it might not be successful, whereas Cooper is not even attempting that.
Let’s not presume May and her team have just been lolling around in lounge suits watching box sets all week. Whilst like of Rudd, McCluskey, Cable, Corbin, Cooper, Grieves have just been wasting their time playing politics, May and her team have been bringing the DUP on board, Mogg, Boris, BUT also crucially, at same time talking to EU and bringing them on board. The key bit many missed was when Murrison watered down his own amendment, merely time limited (upon EU signal to May and her team).
Let’s be honest with each other, the Murrison amendment isn’t the Murrison amendment, its May’s amendment based on her micro conversations with DUP and ERG and macro discussions with EU (and dance with the devil too in the speakers chamber)
EU asking for the signal, like a bonfire lit on the hill. There’s the signal. What is about to become one of the most famous amendments in the history of politics.
We can all sleep more easily tonight. We have a deal! UK secures an orderly exit from EU much to business and industry liking.
15 Tory Ministers ready to resign if necessary to back a second referendum as PV claim they are building enough support to now be close to a Commons majority twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1088499646719242242
If they were building so much support, why the press conference this morning with the usual suspects saying they are pulling their amendment?
15 Tory Ministers ready to resign if necessary to back a second referendum as PV claim they are building enough support to now be close to a Commons majority twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1088499646719242242
If they were building so much support, why the press conference this morning with the usual suspects saying they are pulling their amendment?
As they are waiting to force a straight Remain v Deal EU ref2 v No Deal choice by eliminating all other options ie extending Art 50 before an EUref2 commitment, Norway+, Labour's permanent Customs Union plan first
Can an expert tell us what would happen at the end of a time-limited backstop?
A good question. It seems like the general idea is without a time limit there's no incentive to come to an agreement which removes the need for a backstop, so you need a limit to ensure you don't need it at all? But obviously things don't always work out, and the sides are posturing about what they'd even do in the event of no agreement at all, so who the hell knows anymore, if nothing is still agreed at the end of this nebulously timed time limit.
I'd agree with philip_thompson to the extent that Murrison's idea at least attempts to put things to bed, even if it might not be successful, whereas Cooper is not even attempting that.
Let’s not presume May and her team have just been lolling around in lounge suits watching box sets all week. Whilst like of Rudd, McCluskey, Cable, Corbin, Cooper, Grieves have just been wasting their time playing politics, May and her team have been bringing the DUP on board, Mogg, Boris, BUT also crucially, at same time talking to EU and bringing them on board. The key bit many missed was when Murrison watered down his own amendment, merely time limited (upon EU signal to May and her team).
Let’s be honest with each other, the Murrison amendment isn’t the Murrison amendment, its May’s amendment based on her micro conversations with DUP and ERG and macro discussions with EU (and dance with the devil too in the speakers chamber)
EU asking for the signal, like a bonfire lit on the hill. There’s the signal. What is about to become one of the most famous amendments in the history of politics.
We can all sleep more easily tonight. We have a deal! UK secures an orderly exit from EU much to business and industry liking.
If it passed, and if the EU accept that point, then whatever one thinks about the merits of the deal and the nature of the tactics May employed, it will be one of the most remarkable political accomplishments every achieve I should think, given the mammoth defeat. I cannot help but fear such a delicate and intricate ploy is very vulnerable to just one person or side being very very stubborn.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
Can an expert tell us what would happen at the end of a time-limited backstop?
Whatever has been negotiated by then.
But say nothing of any substance has been agreed. At the end of the time limit, the EU put up a hard border in NI, just as they will do if there is No Deal on 31st March.
No one is any the worse off than they will be under the current trajectory, but we have 3, 5 or whatever years without a hard border in which someone might come up with something.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The more pessimistic take is that we're heading for no deal and the aim is to be able to blame it on the EU.
Can an expert tell us what would happen at the end of a time-limited backstop?
Whatever has been negotiated by then.
But say nothing of any substance has been agreed. At the end of the time limit, the EU put up a hard border in NI, just as they will do if there is No Deal on 31st March.
No one is any the worse off than they will be under the current trajectory, but we have 3, 5 or whatever years without a hard border in which someone might come up with something.
Or am I being thick?
Exactly! All logic shows this to be the rational compromise. 'A bird in the hand'.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
In reality their refusal to budge on the backstop to the extent of forcing No Deal may well be enough for People's Vote to get a Remain v Deal referendum to scrape over the line for a Commons majority with 50 odd Tory Remainers joining most opposition MPs and leaving the ERG and DUP with nothing
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The more pessimistic take is that we're heading for no deal and the aim is to be able to blame it on the EU.
The EU and Ireland gain nothing in having no deal. No deal equals no backstop so if it is deal minus backstop, or no deal and no backstop, then amending the deal is rational.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
In reality their refusal to budge on the backstop to the extent of forcing No Deal may well be enough for People's Vote to get a Remain v Deal referendum to scrape over the line for a Commons majority with 50 odd Tory Remainers joining most opposition MPs and leaving the ERG and DUP with nothing
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The more pessimistic take is that we're heading for no deal and the aim is to be able to blame it on the EU.
The EU and Ireland gain nothing in having no deal. No deal equals no backstop so if it is deal minus backstop, or no deal and no backstop, then amending the deal is rational.
Alternatively they want to blame the EU for an extension.
I would love it it Murrison's amendment passes and Cooper's fails.
If you want to take No Deal off the table then the solution is simple. Vote for the Deal. It's not rocket science.
Totally agree with that statement. It’s plain logic. Even the PM calls it imperfect. People don’t have to like the imperfect deal, nor the nebulous FA, and can moan down the line how they voted for it with a gun held to their heads: it takes no deal off the table. Simples.
Coopers is looking certain to fail, by around 30. She is not carrying enough of her own party.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
In reality their refusal to budge on the backstop to the extent of forcing No Deal may well be enough for People's Vote to get a Remain v Deal referendum to scrape over the line for a Commons majority with 50 odd Tory Remainers joining most opposition MPs and leaving the ERG and DUP with nothing
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The more pessimistic take is that we're heading for no deal and the aim is to be able to blame it on the EU.
The EU and Ireland gain nothing in having no deal. No deal equals no backstop so if it is deal minus backstop, or no deal and no backstop, then amending the deal is rational.
Alternatively they want to blame the EU for an extension.
Extension achieves nothing just leaves us exactly where we are. The time to make an agreeable compromise is now at a few minutes to midnight, kicking the can just takes the pressure off until it comes back.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The more pessimistic take is that we're heading for no deal and the aim is to be able to blame it on the EU.
That was in fact my take (at least in the outcome, I am sure the proposers would like this to work), since I believe assuming the EU have been bluffing this whole time to be rather optimistic.
I would love it it Murrison's amendment passes and Cooper's fails.
If you want to take No Deal off the table then the solution is simple. Vote for the Deal. It's not rocket science.
Totally agree with that statement. It’s plain logic. Even the PM calls it imperfect. People don’t have to like the imperfect deal, nor the nebulous FA, and can moan down the line how they voted for it with a gun held to their heads: it takes no deal off the table. Simples.
Coopers is looking certain to fail, by around 30. She is not carrying enough of her own party.
Wasn't the mood music looking fairly positive yesterday for it? At least things are moving to some degree now!
Oh well, looks like both PV and the ZombieDealers are trying to set a positive attitude going in to next week. May someone win at any rate.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
In reality their refusal to budge on the backstop to the extent of forcing No Deal may well be enough for People's Vote to get a Remain v Deal referendum to scrape over the line for a Commons majority with 50 odd Tory Remainers joining most opposition MPs and leaving the ERG and DUP with nothing
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
Surely the EU have already budged behind the scenes there? Have Team May not been in intravenous dialogue with EU all week? Where do you think the Foreign Sec has been and up to? Do you think breakthroughs only happen at summits?
So, the Tories are determined to vote for and own No Deal Brexit. That really is quite something. If Jeremy Corbyn had been asked to write down his dream scenario this would be it. He is a very, very lucky man.
If those rebels include a lot of current ministers I'd have thought, previous resignations notwithstanding, May caves, allows a free vote, and it passed overwhelmingly? Kicking the can (with the added benefit it massively improves the chances of remain) is probably popular in the Commons. If the reports are even half right about Rudd and co, clearly enough Tories do want to do so.
Surely the EU have already budged behind the scenes there? Have Team May not been in intravenous dialogue with EU all week? Where do you think the Foreign Sec has been and up to? Do you think breakthroughs only happen at summits?
She'd been talking to them for months and months and months, and whenever we hear that they hope for a positive response from the EU they get shot down bluntly. DI'm sure I recall much talk over the summer was that the EU would respond positively to Chequers, while needing big changes, but come September and they slapped it down brutally and have stuck to their lines mostly rigidly every since, along with constant leaks about how stunned, and embarrassed and shocked they were at May's performances and lack of clarity etc etc.
This ongoing dialogue has not yielded much since the WA was drafted being the key point.
So, the Tories are determined to vote for and own No Deal Brexit. That really is quite something. If Jeremy Corbyn had been asked to write down his dream scenario this would be it. He is a very, very lucky man.
Well, the Tories are not yet ready to throw in the towel and back Cooper's remain suggestion (not that she calls it that, but come on), so they've been checkmated.
Gods forbid something winds up a tie, that's the last thing we need. Bercow might make a decision which is for the best of everyone, but it would be incidental to whatever short term goal he is aiming for at that particular moment (no, I don't believe for a second he will feel constrained by precedent in exercising his vote).
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
The demand is for the backstop to become void before it is even supposed to come into force. It is the politics of the absurd. Which is no surprise, of course.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
So, the Tories are determined to vote for and own No Deal Brexit. That really is quite something. If Jeremy Corbyn had been asked to write down his dream scenario this would be it. He is a very, very lucky man.
That's why he is desperate to keep on the fence, even though the whole structure is tottering.
His mission is to let the Tories totally own whatever clusterfuck they finally emerge with.
Whatever the opposite word for statesmanship is, this is it.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
No Deal is where we are heading without question. If the Tories vote for the Murrison amendment then they are actually voting for it. That means they own it. I would humbly suggest that is not a very good idea.
This evening’s Question Time was a perfect and depressing encapsulation of what Britain has become. A panel of semi-literate half-wits talking to a polarised audience who aren’t listening. The journey back from where we are is going to be long and very tough. I doubt we’ll make it.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
So, the Tories are determined to vote for and own No Deal Brexit. That really is quite something. If Jeremy Corbyn had been asked to write down his dream scenario this would be it. He is a very, very lucky man.
That's why he is desperate to keep on the fence, even though the whole structure is tottering.
His mission is to let the Tories totally own whatever clusterfuck they finally emerge with.
Whatever the opposite word for statesmanship is, this is it.
The Tories are making it easy for him. Why wouldn't he carry on doing what he is doing? It's not as if he has any affection for the UK. He'd very happily see it fragment.
So, the Tories are determined to vote for and own No Deal Brexit. That really is quite something. If Jeremy Corbyn had been asked to write down his dream scenario this would be it. He is a very, very lucky man.
That's why he is desperate to keep on the fence, even though the whole structure is tottering.
His mission is to let the Tories totally own whatever clusterfuck they finally emerge with.
Whatever the opposite word for statesmanship is, this is it.
Except that approach will come back on him hard, as the polls show unless Corbyn has committed to back EUref2 before Brexit takes place he will get his share of the blame and many Labour Remainers will shift to the LDs as a result
If those rebels include a lot of current ministers I'd have thought, previous resignations notwithstanding, May caves, allows a free vote, and it passed overwhelmingly? Kicking the can (with the added benefit it massively improves the chances of remain) is probably popular in the Commons. If the reports are even half right about Rudd and co, clearly enough Tories do want to do so.
Surely the EU have already budged behind the scenes there? Have Team May not been in intravenous dialogue with EU all week? Where do you think the Foreign Sec has been and up to? Do you think breakthroughs only happen at summits?
She'd been talking to them for months and months and months, and whenever we hear that they hope for a positive response from the EU they get shot down bluntly. DI'm sure I recall much talk over the summer was that the EU would respond positively to Chequers, while needing big changes, but come September and they slapped it down brutally and have stuck to their lines mostly rigidly every since, along with constant leaks about how stunned, and embarrassed and shocked they were at May's performances and lack of clarity etc etc.
This ongoing dialogue has not yielded much since the WA was drafted being the key point.
That’s not the key point. 🙃
Have you never followed how and when these big deals are tied up? Like the Maastricht Treaty, the Good Friday agreement.
It has a deadline, and a ticker ticking down, building cliff hanging excitement.
All our TV news have a xx days to go ticker. Don’t take it from me, take it from the immortal words from Galaxy Quest “it always stops at 1 on the show”
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
The EU have been adamant there cannot be a time limit on the backstop, there is no evidence that will change even if they make more assurances they do not think it will be needed
It's genuinely hard to make out what's happening. I was getting the impression that more or less enough Tories were coming back to the Deal, when suddenly her allies produce this Brady amendment, which I think has no chance whatever of EU acceptance.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
Murrison's Unicorn amendment is a complete irrelevance unless the EU agrees, nope it is Cooper's amendment which is more likely to pass then momentum will start to build for a Remain v Deal EUref2 which in turn could force more No Dealers to back the Deal to avoid it
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
Murrison's Unicorn amendment is a complete irrelevance unless the EU agrees, nope it is Cooper's amendment which is more likely to pass then momentum will start to build for a Remain v Deal EUref2 which in turn could force more No Dealers to back the Deal to avoid it
But the backchat from the Govt is that they support the Murrison amendment. i.e May wants to go to Brussels and say do this and I can get the deal passed. This is debatable, but it is at least moving things forward.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
He's a writer, polemicist and columnist. Why should we expect him to have a bloody clue about complex trade agreements.
This has been one of the main problems of the whole sorry two year saga, imho. We have had the airways totally dominated by politicians and commentators, none of whom, it is now clear, had a bloody clue what the hell they were talking about.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
It's genuinely hard to make out what's happening. I was getting the impression that more or less enough Tories were coming back to the Deal, when suddenly her allies produce this Brady amendment, which I think has no chance whatever of EU acceptance.
wtf?
Me neither.
Is there any sherpa activity at all with the EU in Brussels at the moment, or are May's bunker just making it up as they go along?
If those rebels include a lot of current ministers I'd have thought, previous resignations notwithstanding, May caves, allows a free vote, and it passed overwhelmingly? Kicking the can (with the added benefit it massively improves the chances of remain) is probably popular in the Commons. If the reports are even half right about Rudd and co, clearly enough Tories do want to do so.
Surely the EU have already budged behind the scenes there? Have Team May not been in intravenous dialogue with EU all week? Where do you think the Foreign Sec has been and up to? Do you think breakthroughs only happen at summits?
She'd been talking to them for months and months and months, and whenever we hear that they hope for a positive response from the EU they get shot down bluntly. DI'm sure I recall much talk over the summer was that the EU would respond positively to Chequers, while needing big changes, but come September and they slapped it down brutally and have stuck to their lines mostly rigidly every since, along with constant leaks about how stunned, and embarrassed and shocked they were at May's performances and lack of clarity etc etc.
This ongoing dialogue has not yielded much since the WA was drafted being the key point.
That’s not the key point. 🙃
Have you never followed how and when these big deals are tied up? Like the Maastricht Treaty, the Good Friday agreement.
It has a deadline, and a ticker ticking down, building cliff hanging excitement.
All our TV news have a xx days to go ticker. Don’t take it from me, take it from the immortal words from Galaxy Quest “it always stops at 1 on the show”
Have you never played poker?
Yes, but not with my wife's essential meds on the table as part of the pot.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
Murrison's Unicorn amendment is a complete irrelevance unless the EU agrees, nope it is Cooper's amendment which is more likely to pass then momentum will start to build for a Remain v Deal EUref2 which in turn could force more No Dealers to back the Deal to avoid it
But the backchat from the Govt is that they support the Murrison amendment. i.e May wants to go to Brussels and say do this and I can get the deal passed. This is debatable, but it is at least moving things forward.
Well of course May wants a Deal with no backstop but the who reason she had to agree her Deal with the backstop was because the EU were adamant it had to be included. So unless the EU change tack and there has been zero evidence of that, Murrison's unicorn amendment remains an irrelevance
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
It's genuinely hard to make out what's happening. I was getting the impression that more or less enough Tories were coming back to the Deal, when suddenly her allies produce this Brady amendment, which I think has no chance whatever of EU acceptance.
wtf?
Everyone opposed to the deal who said they'd back it now said so only if the backstop was dealt with. This amendment deals with the backstop. You can't get the support without dealing with the backstop.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
It's genuinely hard to make out what's happening. I was getting the impression that more or less enough Tories were coming back to the Deal, when suddenly her allies produce this Brady amendment, which I think has no chance whatever of EU acceptance.
wtf?
Me neither.
Is there any sherpa activity at all with the EU in Brussels at the moment, or are May's bunker just making it up as they go along?
Yes, Tony Connelley has reported that the Brit team are now talking to Selmayr and Tusk's Chief of Staff. Barnier and Weyand are completely out loop.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
The EU have been adamant there cannot be a time limit on the backstop, there is no evidence that will change even if they make more assurances they do not think it will be needed
I can convince this works. 😏
The actual time limiting is just the signal. The actual deal on the backstop is how parties remove themselves if the ticking stopped. No one is going to proceed to disorganised brexit they haven’t properly prepared for, for sake of mechanism they will never actually use, so a form of words for extraction from backstop will be found that all parties, including Dublin and DUP, Boris and ERG can support. Although this secures an orderly almost serene actual brexit day, when its eventually agreed it wont leave enough time to manage the legal formalities before 29 March, so Brexit day is actually May or June. But, with DUP and ERG order papers now waved behind her, May blames this extension on the political shenanigans and obstruction of the opposition parties opposite her.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
Pick your choice in terms of UK Lamb producers it is the same argument.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
The way McDonnell was talking about it made it seem very likely Labour would be backing it, he stopped short of saying that but made very positive noises about it. Why are you so sure they won't back the Cooper amendment?
Delingpole has just been skewered on This Week. He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ... I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there. The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price. Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
The problem is that we have got bog standard public school students in charge of things.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
The way McDonnell was talking about it made it seem very likely Labour would be backing it, he stopped short of saying that but made very positive noises about it. Why are you so sure they won't back the Cooper amendment?
Because he didn’t say they would back it. Nine tenths in a lobby is not actually enough in a lobby to be counted.
Without the leaderships backing you admit you can see the speaker, with his most consolatory face on, holding out a waste paper basket to Yvette on Monday
It's genuinely hard to make out what's happening. I was getting the impression that more or less enough Tories were coming back to the Deal, when suddenly her allies produce this Brady amendment, which I think has no chance whatever of EU acceptance.
wtf?
Playing for time?
Making a compromise seem possible and themselves reasonable whilst running down the clock and attacking the other options that are emerging.
If they can make a compromise seem close maybe they can keep enough Conservatives who could go rogue onside then in the longer term hopefully (from their POV) the other options are eliminated by time and arguments among their opponents.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
Pick your choice in terms of UK Lamb producers it is the same argument.
You seem super clued in on this Ralph. This is almost like a surgery.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
The way McDonnell was talking about it made it seem very likely Labour would be backing it, he stopped short of saying that but made very positive noises about it. Why are you so sure they won't back the Cooper amendment?
Because he didn’t say they would back it. Nine tenths in a lobby is not actually enough in a lobby to be counted.
Without the leaderships backing you admit you can see the speaker, with his most consolatory face on, holding out a waste paper basket to Yvette on Monday
Yes but 9/10 also indicates they are leaning strongly that way, surely going the extra tenth when it comes to voting on it is more likely than reversing the other 9/10.
I should of course have said that Delingpole's position on UK Lamb was that he was skewered like a kebab.
I have food similes on my mind at the moment having just bought, cooked, eaten and enjoyed a pair of kippers; for the first time in years.
A search of Google suggests that, "stitched up like a kipper", may actually be a reference to the sort of tie annually referred to in Peter from Putney's xmas joke, rather than, as I had assumed, the lesser spotted smoked fish of Edwardian breakfast tables.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
The way McDonnell was talking about it made it seem very likely Labour would be backing it, he stopped short of saying that but made very positive noises about it. Why are you so sure they won't back the Cooper amendment?
Because he didn’t say they would back it. Nine tenths in a lobby is not actually enough in a lobby to be counted.
Without the leaderships backing you admit you can see the speaker, with his most consolatory face on, holding out a waste paper basket to Yvette on Monday
Yes but 9/10 also indicates they are leaning strongly that way, surely going the extra tenth when it comes to voting on it is more likely than reversing the other 9/10.
Oh dear TheJez! 🥴. This is Brexit we are talking about, that extra one step is always politically impossible. They are all playing a game of walking around on a cliff top blind fold. The one extra step is always wwwwwwoah are we sure?
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
The EU have been adamant there cannot be a time limit on the backstop, there is no evidence that will change even if they make more assurances they do not think it will be needed
I can convince this works. 😏
The actual time limiting is just the signal. The actual deal on the backstop is how parties remove themselves if the ticking stopped. No one is going to proceed to disorganised brexit they haven’t properly prepared for, for sake of mechanism they will never actually use, so a form of words for extraction from backstop will be found that all parties, including Dublin and DUP, Boris and ERG can support. Although this secures an orderly almost serene actual brexit day, when its eventually agreed it wont leave enough time to manage the legal formalities before 29 March, so Brexit day is actually May or June. But, with DUP and ERG order papers now waved behind her, May blames this extension on the political shenanigans and obstruction of the opposition parties opposite her.
The mechanism for extraction from the backstop is when a trade deal has been agreed until then the EU will insist there is no time limit on the backstop
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
Pick your choice in terms of UK Lamb producers it is the same argument.
You seem super clued in on this Ralph. This is almost like a surgery.
What’s the situation regarding custard?
No problem we make or can get from non EU countries every ingredient needed to make custard.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
The EU have been adamant there cannot be a time limit on the backstop, there is no evidence that will change even if they make more assurances they do not think it will be needed
I can convince this works. 😏
The actual time limiting is just the signal. The actual deal on the backstop is how parties remove themselves if the ticking stopped. No one is going to proceed to disorganised brexit they haven’t properly prepared for, for sake of mechanism they will never actually use, so a form of words for extraction from backstop will be found that all parties, including Dublin and DUP, Boris and ERG can support. Although this secures an orderly almost serene actual brexit day, when its eventually agreed it wont leave enough time to manage the legal formalities before 29 March, so Brexit day is actually May or June. But, with DUP and ERG order papers now waved behind her, May blames this extension on the political shenanigans and obstruction of the opposition parties opposite her.
The mechanism for extraction from the backstop is when a trade deal has been agreed until then the EU will insist there is no time limit on the backstop
Yes. At the moment. 😉
but that is before they get creative at the eleventh hour.
🙈. oh come on. we’ve all seen this one before. this agreement wont even by as surprising as the Good Friday
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
Pick your choice in terms of UK Lamb producers it is the same argument.
You seem super clued in on this Ralph. This is almost like a surgery.
What’s the situation regarding custard?
No problem we make or can get from non EU countries every ingredient needed to make custard.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Yep as a leaver myself he was useless. It is that Oxford education letting him down, what do they teach them there.
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
You're saying the supermarkets would be empty of raw meat if we leave without a deal?
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Us leavers live in the real world, not the fantasy world where being in the SM/CU is the salvation of all our ills.
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Sorry, a moment ago "the supermarket would be empty of raw meat", but now "there would potentially be a shortage".
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
Pick your choice in terms of UK Lamb producers it is the same argument.
You seem super clued in on this Ralph. This is almost like a surgery.
What’s the situation regarding custard?
No problem we make or can get from non EU countries every ingredient needed to make custard.
but that is before they get creative at the eleventh hour.
🙈. oh come on. we’ve all seen this one before. this agreement wont even by as surprising as the Good Friday
You can't change the Withdrawal Agreement at the eleventh hour, it has to be voted on by the European Parliament. I guess the best you could do would be to make a new withdrawal agreement at the eleventh hour then have an extension while they finish agreeing to it.
but that is before they get creative at the eleventh hour.
🙈. oh come on. we’ve all seen this one before. this agreement wont even by as surprising as the Good Friday
You can't change the Withdrawal Agreement at the eleventh hour, it has to be voted on by the European Parliament. I guess the best you could do would be to make a new withdrawal agreement at the eleventh hour then have an extension while they finish agreeing to it.
But in parliamentary terms it gets May past the meaningful vote, even if it sabotages getting a Withdrawal Agreement that can work for the EU. That might be sufficient cover to request an extension.
People on Labours front bench aren’t following Cooper into the Lobby. Honour deal Labour MPs wont support a remain Trojan horse dressed up in delay hard brexit clothing. Coopers is a dead duck, it will be binned before next week.
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
The way McDonnell was talking about it made it seem very likely Labour would be backing it, he stopped short of saying that but made very positive noises about it. Why are you so sure they won't back the Cooper amendment?
Because he didn’t say they would back it. Nine tenths in a lobby is not actually enough in a lobby to be counted.
Without the leaderships backing you admit you can see the speaker, with his most consolatory face on, holding out a waste paper basket to Yvette on Monday
Yes but 9/10 also indicates they are leaning strongly that way, surely going the extra tenth when it comes to voting on it is more likely than reversing the other 9/10.
Oh dear TheJez! 🥴. This is Brexit we are talking about, that extra one step is always politically impossible. They are all playing a game of walking around on a cliff top blind fold. The one extra step is always wwwwwwoah are we sure?
This is just for an extension though, one that lessens the possibility of no deal which they all (Labour minus maybe Hoey) want to avoid. This isn't taking a position beyond being anti no deal which is something they have already positioned themselves as.
So some EU countries are proposing more 'generous' no deal terms.
You might think this is a good thing, but it will only encourage the No Deal Tory ultras to press their case - and Tezzie will carry on listening to them.
Sensing that perhaps a shit, "stepping stone" Brexit is better than no Brexit on 29th March. Have a few beers, celebrate the victory and then wake up on the 30th complete the process of taking over the Tory party and repudiating the bulk of the deal from outside the EU
Sensing that perhaps a shit, "stepping stone" Brexit is better than no Brexit on 29th March. Have a few beers, celebrate the victory and then wake up on the 30th complete the process of taking over the Tory party and repudiating the bulk of the deal from outside the EU
That's the issue of course; for around half the population it isn't a victory but a defeat. 'Cheer up things could be worse' is about the best that I and mine can see, and it's a very poor 'best' indeed.
This evening’s Question Time was a perfect and depressing encapsulation of what Britain has become. A panel of semi-literate half-wits talking to a polarised audience who aren’t listening. The journey back from where we are is going to be long and very tough. I doubt we’ll make it.
It was a particularly bad panel. I had to turn it off, and I have a pretty high tolerance of ill informed people spouting garbage. Delingpole on TW was a classic too. We really are heading towards idiocracy.
Some political shenanigans doing the rounds now. If even close to that many are ready to resign in order to remain via a referendum, then that certainly explains the sudden notion that 100MPs including the DUP might be reviving the deal after all, to convince those wavering ministers it is not necessary to avoid no deal that way.
That depends on the EU conceding something on the backstop, otherwise the DUP and ERG will still not budge and PV may be able to get a Remain v Deal referendum over the line
It seems like the plan is to convince the DUP and others that whatever they say now the EU will make a change if only the deal is made subject to that one (major) change, on the assumption saying no at that point will be harder for them to do as it will demonstrably have passed the Commons, providing both a changed position (albeit not the one they'd like) the EU expects from May and evidence of a parliamentary majority, already delivered, and so shift the pressure on to the EU to avoid no deal.
The EU won't budge, this is unicorn politics from the ERG.
The EU won't budge until they do. You have a crystal ball or Tardis to demonstrate the EU won't budge?
If you really want to believe Barnier, Juncker and Tusk have been bluffing all along and will come out and say 'well now Sir Graham Brady, Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg et al have said they will back our painstakingly drawn up agreement if we dump the backstop, one of the pivotal elements, of course we are prepared to retract everything we have said for the last year and a half and scrap the backstop' then I would like a drink of what you are having tonight!
1). They are up for being creative, because 2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
If it will never need to be used why are Brexiteers so opposed to it? The point is that it might need to be used and that's why it's there.
Comments
https://twitter.com/PeterWelch/status/1087857790901735426
I know deleting tweets won't prevent the story doing the rounds, but maybe its worth doing and just leaving up the apology?
"Clear!"
Murrison is seeking a solution to put this to bed.
Cooper isn't seeking a solution just a can kicking that drags this out for months at which point we are right back where we are. At which point the MPs backing this are not so secretively hoping they can back Remain.
If you want to take No Deal off the table then the solution is simple. Vote for the Deal. It's not rocket science.
I'd agree with philip_thompson to the extent that Murrison's idea at least attempts to put things to bed, even if it might not be successful, whereas Cooper is not even attempting that.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1088499646719242242
Yes. But I was thinking more of my new potential job as a customs officer in NI.
This US alignment comes at a steep price though. When QNLZ goes on here first operational deployment to the Pacific in 2020 there will be a USMC F-35B squadron embarked and there will 100% be 'NOFORN' areas on the ship. ie US citizens only. How's that sovereignty looking?
A key plank of US strategic doctrine is to prevent allies from developing autonomous carrier capabilities. They keep their boot on the neck of the French carrier effort by completely controlling the deck landing qualification pipeline and F-35B co-operation serves a similar function for the UK.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/22/andrew-murrison-re-tables-time-limited-backstop-amendment/
Let’s be honest with each other, the Murrison amendment isn’t the Murrison amendment, its May’s amendment based on her micro conversations with DUP and ERG and macro discussions with EU (and dance with the devil too in the speakers chamber)
EU asking for the signal, like a bonfire lit on the hill. There’s the signal. What is about to become one of the most famous amendments in the history of politics.
We can all sleep more easily tonight. We have a deal! UK secures an orderly exit from EU much to business and industry liking.
Ken Clarke to open for England and also lead the spurs front line....
Rather relies on the EU to have been making a lot of empty talk up until now, especially as it certainly looks like we tried to convince them to make changes in advance of any vote to persuade the DUP et al.
No one is any the worse off than they will be under the current trajectory, but we have 3, 5 or whatever years without a hard border in which someone might come up with something.
Or am I being thick?
In reality their refusal to budge on the backstop to the extent of forcing No Deal may well be enough for People's Vote to get a Remain v Deal referendum to scrape over the line for a Commons majority with 50 odd Tory Remainers joining most opposition MPs and leaving the ERG and DUP with nothing
Coopers is looking certain to fail, by around 30. She is not carrying enough of her own party.
Oh well, looks like both PV and the ZombieDealers are trying to set a positive attitude going in to next week. May someone win at any rate.
A night to all.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1088585619029282817
Do you think breakthroughs only happen at summits?
This ongoing dialogue has not yielded much since the WA was drafted being the key point.
2) They genuinely believe given enough time they will tie up the good trade deal and come nowhere close to actually needing a backstop.
Proceed to disorderly brexit because they can’t time limit something they know they will never need to use? Seriously?
To avoid no deal Murrison is the only show in town now.
His mission is to let the Tories totally own whatever clusterfuck they finally emerge with.
Whatever the opposite word for statesmanship is, this is it.
He was unable to explain why the British Lamb export market would not collapse after Brexit as a result of EU tariffs; why the UK electorate were not warned that Brexit would be painful for many, which he acknowledges; why a No Deal/WTO Brexit followed by a decision by us to set zero tariffs on EU imports, (his suggestion I think) would defeat the aim of setting up FTAs with non-EU countries such as the US, as they would automatically get zero tariffs too, as per WTO rules ...
I think/hope I got this right.
Have you never followed how and when these big deals are tied up? Like the Maastricht Treaty, the Good Friday agreement.
It has a deadline, and a ticker ticking down, building cliff hanging excitement.
All our TV news have a xx days to go ticker. Don’t take it from me, take it from the immortal words from Galaxy Quest “it always stops at 1 on the show”
Have you never played poker?
The Lamb argument is easy to handle. We import 40% of raw meat eaten here and the only raw meat with an export surplus we have is lamb. In the case of no deal, the supermarket would be empty of raw meat so UK produced Lamb would be flying of the shelves at a premium price.
Even a bog standard comp student could work this out.
wtf?
This has been one of the main problems of the whole sorry two year saga, imho. We have had the airways totally dominated by politicians and commentators, none of whom, it is now clear, had a bloody clue what the hell they were talking about.
But, we are back to nobody wants experts anymore.
Are you sure you're singing from the right hymnsheet?
Is there any sherpa activity at all with the EU in Brussels at the moment, or are May's bunker just making it up as they go along?
So yes until the supermarkets changed suppliers for raw meat to NZ/AUS/South America there would potentially be a shortage, but the simple fact is that if we apply the CET UK produced Lam would be cheaper than all these other sources, these other sources would be cheaper than EU produced.
Ergo UK Lamb producers would be in a very profitable situation.
Which is it? And how are people meant to survive if they're not able to buy food?
The actual time limiting is just the signal. The actual deal on the backstop is how parties remove themselves if the ticking stopped. No one is going to proceed to disorganised brexit they haven’t properly prepared for, for sake of mechanism they will never actually use, so a form of words for extraction from backstop will be found that all parties, including Dublin and DUP, Boris and ERG can support. Although this secures an orderly almost serene actual brexit day, when its eventually agreed it wont leave enough time to manage the legal formalities before 29 March, so Brexit day is actually May or June. But, with DUP and ERG order papers now waved behind her, May blames this extension on the political shenanigans and obstruction of the opposition parties opposite her.
Without the leaderships backing you admit you can see the speaker, with his most consolatory face on, holding out a waste paper basket to Yvette on Monday
Making a compromise seem possible and themselves reasonable whilst running down the clock and attacking the other options that are emerging.
If they can make a compromise seem close maybe they can keep enough Conservatives who could go rogue onside then in the longer term hopefully (from their POV) the other options are eliminated by time and arguments among their opponents.
What’s the situation regarding custard?
I have food similes on my mind at the moment having just bought, cooked, eaten and enjoyed a pair of kippers; for the first time in years.
A search of Google suggests that, "stitched up like a kipper", may actually be a reference to the sort of tie annually referred to in Peter from Putney's xmas joke, rather than, as I had assumed, the lesser spotted smoked fish of Edwardian breakfast tables.
I'm now, of course, repeating myself.
but that is before they get creative at the eleventh hour.
🙈. oh come on. we’ve all seen this one before. this agreement wont even by as surprising as the Good Friday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46995337
So who received those queries from HMRC? And did no-one else - not even at the banks spot them?
Curiouser and curiouser.
May is after all a genius kicker of cans.
So some EU countries are proposing more 'generous' no deal terms.
You might think this is a good thing, but it will only encourage the No Deal Tory ultras to press their case - and Tezzie will carry on listening to them.
https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1088596250864336896?s=19
The point is that it might need to be used and that's why it's there.