Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
I think you'd see a major Tory revolt at that. The Party is so split on Brexit that it'd be impossible to enforce any kind of discipline and any attempt to enforce May's line would provoke immense hostility towards the leadership from the members because it would mean either purging the candidates list of any opposed to the WA and/or imposing candidates on constituencies. Either way, there might not be enough people left on the candidates list. Such authoritarian procedures might well not be approved by the Party Board and even if they were, you'd be effectively expelling 60+ MPs and inviting them to form their own party under the leadership of, say, Boris. What could possibly go wrong from there?
So - short version - not only is it pointless and futile, but it verges on insane to even attempt it?
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Feb 28th would not be a good karma for the Tories - the Feb 1974 election was on that date.
That does not sound right given the vote now scheduled for Jan 29th. March 7th or 14th would be more likely.
Any GE later than Feb 28th would leave less than a month to vote in the WA and pass the required (under the EU(W) Act) legislation to enable it. By my reckoning she's got until next Wed to call a GE for that date under the FTPA.
If the withdrawal agreement was signed it'll surely be possible to get a very short extension (perhaps a month) from the EU.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
Pubs are generally better up North than they are in the South, and this one is no exception.
I’m from the North and now live down South and I work for a pub company. I really don’t think there is a massive difference between North and South. There are some fantastic pubs in London, and the trade at pubs across the south seems to be higher.
You know, if by some turn of fate the UK does leave the EU on 29th March with a Withdrawal Agreement in place, Theresa May would deserve to go down as one of the greatest PMs in British history.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Feb 28th would not be a good karma for the Tories - the Feb 1974 election was on that date.
That does not sound right given the vote now scheduled for Jan 29th. March 7th or 14th would be more likely.
Any GE later than Feb 28th would leave less than a month to vote in the WA and pass the required (under the EU(W) Act) legislation to enable it. By my reckoning she's got until next Wed to call a GE for that date under the FTPA.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
I think you'd see a major Tory revolt at that. The Party is so split on Brexit that it'd be impossible to enforce any kind of discipline and any attempt to enforce May's line would provoke immense hostility towards the leadership from the members because it would mean either purging the candidates list of any opposed to the WA and/or imposing candidates on constituencies. Either way, there might not be enough people left on the candidates list. Such authoritarian procedures might well not be approved by the Party Board and even if they were, you'd be effectively expelling 60+ MPs and inviting them to form their own party under the leadership of, say, Boris. What could possibly go wrong from there?
Lab Gain Morley and Outwood if Jenkyns stands as a Brexiteer outwith the Tories for one I'm guessing.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
McD's is good road trip food. There's nothing quite like the last fries found at the bottom of the bag.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
Pubs are generally better up North than they are in the South, and this one is no exception.
I’m from the North and now live down South and I work for a pub company. I really don’t think there is a massive difference between North and South. There are some fantastic pubs in London, and the trade at pubs across the south seems to be higher.
I accept it's a generalisation, but I've usually found the portions bigger in the North.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
As far as I can tell the wine list is execrable.
Well I must admit I've never agreed with the whole biodynamic wine thing they've got going on there but what can you do.
Yes, Labour pass the WA (which is all the EU really care about right now) in return for a post Brexit GE in May/June. I have that as a possible too. Would mean May stepping down earlier than she would wish, but maybe she accepts that if it gets her out of this bind.
PS: No big betting move on a 2019 GE as yet that I can detect.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory.
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
I was put off by a report which found traces of excrement on Macdonald's surfaces.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
Quite attractive all-round from Tezza's viewpoint. I've got a horrible feeling she would probably win a majority.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory.
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
I know it's polls, an' that but I don't think they show that the public is especially favourable to The Deal right now.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
I know it's polls, an' that but I don't think they show that the public is especially favourable to The Deal right now.
Yebbut - most have no real idea what's in it. I think the 'Back us to deliver Brexit' line could win the day. (OTOH it might bomb of course!)
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
I was put off by a report which found traces of excrement on Macdonald's surfaces.
I'm going to have to believe that there are traces of excrement in a whole lot of places not limited to McDonalds. Whatever happened to the claim that there are 28 different types of urine to be found on the exquisite nibbles people are handed at fancy-pants hotel bars?
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
I think you'd see a major Tory revolt at that. The Party is so split on Brexit that it'd be impossible to enforce any kind of discipline and any attempt to enforce May's line would provoke immense hostility towards the leadership from the members because it would mean either purging the candidates list of any opposed to the WA and/or imposing candidates on constituencies. Either way, there might not be enough people left on the candidates list. Such authoritarian procedures might well not be approved by the Party Board and even if they were, you'd be effectively expelling 60+ MPs and inviting them to form their own party under the leadership of, say, Boris. What could possibly go wrong from there?
Lab Gain Morley and Outwood if Jenkyns stands as a Brexiteer outwith the Tories for one I'm guessing.
Probably, although if you did have a new Brexit Party formed out of the ERG but appealing to Leave voters more generally, it wouldn't necessarily just split the Tory vote and you could see some extraordinary results. Lab would probably win overall though.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
I was put off by a report which found traces of excrement on Macdonald's surfaces.
I'm going to have to believe that there are traces of excrement in a whole lot of places not limited to McDonalds. Whatever happened to the claim that there are 28 different types of urine to be found on the exquisite nibbles people are handed at fancy-pants hotel bars?
At a molecular or even cellular level it's hard to imagine that's wrong. We probably all to bacteria averse these days anyway.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
I was put off by a report which found traces of excrement on Macdonald's surfaces.
In most houses, the toilet is a cleaner room than the kitchen (bacterialogically speaking). A chopping board is, on average, 4 times dirtier than a loo seat.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
I think you'd see a major Tory revolt at that. The Party is so split on Brexit that it'd be impossible to enforce any kind of discipline and any attempt to enforce May's line would provoke immense hostility towards the leadership from the members because it would mean either purging the candidates list of any opposed to the WA and/or imposing candidates on constituencies. Either way, there might not be enough people left on the candidates list. Such authoritarian procedures might well not be approved by the Party Board and even if they were, you'd be effectively expelling 60+ MPs and inviting them to form their own party under the leadership of, say, Boris. What could possibly go wrong from there?
Lab Gain Morley and Outwood if Jenkyns stands as a Brexiteer outwith the Tories for one I'm guessing.
Probably, although if you did have a new Brexit Party formed out of the ERG but appealing to Leave voters more generally, it wouldn't necessarily just split the Tory vote and you could see some extraordinary results. Lab would probably win overall though.
I could see such a party doing very well down the East Coast, and in the West Midlands and South Yorkshire. Like UKIP, but with a higher overall level of support.
Shame Bowie, as an honorary Berliner, isn't around to sign the letter.
Nice sentiment but they'd just bitch and moan at us for bitching and moaning all the time if we stayed so its a bit misplaced. They don't want us to stay, they want an idealised version of the UK to stay. They'd regret it the first time we caused a fuss.
There is an argument for saying that you need a bit of grit in the oyster to make a better pearl. Maybe that's Britain's role in the EU - the grit in the oyster.
Maybe so, but if the grit remains the oyster will spend it's time lamenting and castigating it. Maybe for the sake of a slightly lesser pearl it's be better for oyster and grit not to aggravate each other.
Plus I suspect if the EU were asked if it needed the UK to be great it's institutions would laugh. So it's not as though it'd be that diminished.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
That would finish her in the party
Because otherwise she has a long and rosy future?
Not quite the same.
She has a rocky road in front but she is not going to betray all she has worked for on brexit
Not sure what you mean. In the referendum she campaigned for remain. Everything she worked on since then is her deal, which would be equally "betrayed" by No Deal as by Remain, surely?
She will not surrender on Brexit and do anything that helps remain
Then she will have to no deal, which you hate. It's either or.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
No. I don't. It's the low probability of what replaces them being any better that worries me.
You do realise if WTO tariffs are levied that will inflationary speaking just be a tax levied by our government with the funds going to our government. No different to an increase in VAT. In fact the VAT increase years ago probably had a bigger inflationary impact than any tariff changes will do.
If the government wanted to they could apply WTO tariffs and cut VAT. We wouldn't see any inflation overall though domestic goods and non-EU goods would become relatively cheaper and EU goods relatively more expensive.
But if the EU aren't prepared to offer us a good deal then I don't see why Irish produce shouldn't see the same tariffs as Kiwi produce.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The Tariffs that we apply after a no deal do not need to be inflationary. You could offset a lot through VAT. For example 10% tariff on cars can be offset by a reduction in the 20% vat rate. Booze with duties can have the duty reduced to compensate.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
I spoke to someone yesterday and at the end of the meeting we got into a general chat and into the subject of Brexit. He said he was Remain 2 years ago (he mentioned that to me at the time two years ago too) but that Britain made a choice and we need to follow through with it. He blames the politicians for the impasse at the moment and not honouring the public's wishes. Says we just need to get on with it now and if there was another vote he would now vote Leave.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
Basics? Bloody luxury. You'll be queuing for a bit of roast rat.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
I know it's polls, an' that but I don't think they show that the public is especially favourable to The Deal right now.
The Tory Manifesto would offer the deal?
Isn’t part of the deals problem it’s not actually a deal? It’s a withdraw agreement, the ‘deal’ end of it is still very ...nebulous, and this makes the end point all things to all people, supporters and opponents?
For example, spot the odd one out
Remain, on current terms Leave to a Free Trade Arrangement (similar to Canada’s relationship to EU) Mays Withdrawal Agreement.
If we are being strict that the only way out this crisis the only thing allowed on a ballot paper is where you clearly know where you are going to end up, the WA aka Mays nebulous deal wouldn’t make it on that ballot would it?
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
I would be relieved. I do not want a shambles, but I expect it. Not the same thing.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious fools.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The Tariffs that we apply after a no deal do not need to be inflationary. You could offset a lot through VAT. For example 10% tariff on cars can be offset by a reduction in the 20% vat rate. Booze with duties can have the duty reduced to compensate.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
Or people could buy British beef. I will cry no tears if Irish beef is treated the same as Australia's beef.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The Tariffs that we apply after a no deal do not need to be inflationary. You could offset a lot through VAT. For example 10% tariff on cars can be offset by a reduction in the 20% vat rate. Booze with duties can have the duty reduced to compensate.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
Creative thinking? With the cretins we have in charge?
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
Wetherspoon's is minimum standard at affordable prices. You know where you are with them and so I do eat there when I'm on the move. So I guess the value is OK.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
I know it's polls, an' that but I don't think they show that the public is especially favourable to The Deal right now.
The Tory Manifesto would offer the deal?
Isn’t part of the deals problem it’s not actually a deal? It’s a withdraw agreement, the ‘deal’ end of it is still very ...nebulous, and this makes the end point all things to all people, supporters and opponents?
For example, spot the odd one out
Remain, on current terms Leave to a Free Trade Arrangement (similar to Canada’s relationship to EU) Mays Withdrawal Agreement.
If we are being strict that the only way out this crisis the only thing allowed on a ballot paper is where you clearly know where you are going to end up, the WA aka Mays nebulous deal wouldn’t make it on that ballot would it?
Yes you are right - I was using the vernacular!!
The closest it gets to a deal is of course the terms of the backstop which, as any fule could guess, will with a very high probability be invoked, given the short timeframe to negotiate the actual deal.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
In fairness though, Nigel, it is an argument and one I have some sympathy with - a sort of 'lay in the bed you've made' line of thought. Brexit may be a disaster but we would get over it in time and if it made people a bit more careful about what they voted for, and a bit more aware of the importance of political choices, would that be such a bad thing.
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The Tariffs that we apply after a no deal do not need to be inflationary. You could offset a lot through VAT. For example 10% tariff on cars can be offset by a reduction in the 20% vat rate. Booze with duties can have the duty reduced to compensate.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
Or people could buy British beef. I will cry no tears if Irish beef is treated the same as Australia's beef.
Though Australian beef can hardly walk across the border...
You do realise if WTO tariffs are levied that will inflationary speaking just be a tax levied by our government with the funds going to our government. No different to an increase in VAT. In fact the VAT increase years ago probably had a bigger inflationary impact than any tariff changes will do.
If the government wanted to they could apply WTO tariffs and cut VAT. We wouldn't see any inflation overall though domestic goods and non-EU goods would become relatively cheaper and EU goods relatively more expensive.
But if the EU aren't prepared to offer us a good deal then I don't see why Irish produce shouldn't see the same tariffs as Kiwi produce.
What impact would this have, if any, on the Exchequer?
You do realise if WTO tariffs are levied that will inflationary speaking just be a tax levied by our government with the funds going to our government. No different to an increase in VAT. In fact the VAT increase years ago probably had a bigger inflationary impact than any tariff changes will do.
You do realise that if WTO hits Jo Bloggs's pocket they will not give a d*mn about the finer details of the financial settlement?
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
Wetherspoon's is minimum standard at affordable prices. You know where you are with them and so I do eat there when I'm on the move. So I guess the value is OK.
If I want a meal out I go somewhere else.
Weatherspoons, where boxed wine drinkers go to eat...
You do realise if WTO tariffs are levied that will inflationary speaking just be a tax levied by our government with the funds going to our government. No different to an increase in VAT. In fact the VAT increase years ago probably had a bigger inflationary impact than any tariff changes will do.
You do realise that if WTO hits Jo Bloggs's pocket they will not give a d*mn about the finer details of the financial settlement?
The last few times I had McDonalds, some time ago, was after hospital visits. It was late at night, and they were one of the few places open. I quite liked the salt, despite the potato strips I found in it.
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
I would be relieved. I do not want a shambles, but I expect it. Not the same thing.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious.
I'm not sure why one group of people getting it wrong (Remainers) only 'look a bit daft' when another group would be considered 'mendacious'? If WTO Apocalypse is wrong then it will leave some of us wondering how many other times false fear has been used to hold the country back; whether that be Brexit, unilateral disarmament or (bless him) Neil Kinnock.
You are right, anecdotal and, therefore meaningless
The counter-arguments are plenty of course, but I wouldn't be dismissive of Philip's line. It's certainly far more reasonable than some of the nonsense that was trotted out at the referendum.
I have reached the point where I believe No-Deal Brexit has to happen and, regretfully, it needs to be an utter shambles. Our system needs a severe shock to clean out decades of political deadwood.
I have some sympathy with that view though I think Parliament will not let it happen. More likely there will be last-minute screeching u-turn through either extension or revokation of A50.
What happens happens. I am too dazed by the utter stupidity on display to care any more...
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
The Tariffs that we apply after a no deal do not need to be inflationary. You could offset a lot through VAT. For example 10% tariff on cars can be offset by a reduction in the 20% vat rate. Booze with duties can have the duty reduced to compensate.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
Or people could buy British beef. I will cry no tears if Irish beef is treated the same as Australia's beef.
While I agree with you, we do need to implement a transition period whilst home grown production gears up a level, inflationary food prices would be jumped on immediately by the frothers. But not do it for all produce affected, only basics we require, raw meat and vegetables. Plenty of fruit in the world that is already competitive with stuff from Europe. My local Aldi is stuffed with goods from Central and Southern America, North Africa, Isreal, etc. No change in tariffs for that lot.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
When you need a big mac you need a big mac. Chicken nuggets also have a role in life. Breakfast sausage, egg mcmuffin great in their way.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
I was put off by a report which found traces of excrement on Macdonald's surfaces.
I'm going to have to believe that there are traces of excrement in a whole lot of places not limited to McDonalds. Whatever happened to the claim that there are 28 different types of urine to be found on the exquisite nibbles people are handed at fancy-pants hotel bars?
At a molecular or even cellular level it's hard to imagine that's wrong. We probably all to bacteria averse these days anyway.
Tablet and phone screens and computer keyboards and mouses are the worst, as we touch them all the time and most don't get cleaned very often if at all
I find it so depressing that even at Cabinet level there's not a hint of unity and that a GE of all things seems to be among the most popular options to this crisis. We seem no closer to anyone willing to bend, just demanding others do what they want it else demanding things not in the gift of those it is demanded of.
There seems to be nothing that will break this deadlock.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
It would have been a more convincing article if it had named names. However,if it is true, it will go down like a cup of cold sick with those Tories who only voted they had confidence in May’s leadership on the back of her promise to step down as leader before the next GE.
I presume May hopes she’ll get a majority and won’t have to rely on the DUP or ERG. If so, she’s deluded
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The food is one level above McDonalds in my view (which means that I've eaten there more than once), but they stock pretty good bottled beer - e.g. Orkney brewery, or from the people local to Cameron's old constituency - and they can't mess up beer that comes to them in a bottle.
Never tried a McDonalds, so I can't comment on the relative awfulness.
Never. Tried. A. McDonalds?
You haven't lived, man!
@Charles: best added to your bucket, rather than your bucket-list; it's every bit a bad as you'd expect it to be.
Nah, it's great. Shouldn't be, but it hits the spot.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Better get your party colleagues to vote for it, then
I find it so depressing that even at Cabinet level there's not a hint of unity and that a GE of all things seems to be among the most popular options to this crisis. We seem no closer to anyone willing to bend, just demanding others do what they want it else demanding things not in the gift of those it is demanded of.
There seems to be nothing that will break this deadlock.
Maybe they should just toss a coin for each option.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
Wetherspoon's is minimum standard at affordable prices. You know where you are with them and so I do eat there when I'm on the move. So I guess the value is OK.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
Another complete and utter waste of time. It solves nothing and distracts from the issue of the day. It is no different from postponing the Meaningless Vote for a month.
Better than the inexorable deadlocked slide towards the Brexit cliff edge imo.
But what would the Tory Manifesto offer? If it's May's Deal how would the ERG campaign?
The Tory manifesto would offer the Deal.
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
I know it's polls, an' that but I don't think they show that the public is especially favourable to The Deal right now.
Not will they become so. It's trashed from left and right and remembered as an epic humiliation. I'd rather it had passed, but it's done and cannot be salvaged.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Better get your party colleagues to vote for it, then
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
I would be relieved. I do not want a shambles, but I expect it. Not the same thing.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious.
I'm not sure why one group of people getting it wrong (Remainers) only 'look a bit daft' when another group would be considered 'mendacious'? If WTO Apocalypse is wrong then it will leave some of us wondering how many other times false fear has been used to hold the country back; whether that be Brexit, unilateral disarmament or (bless him) Neil Kinnock.
Remainers getting it wrong has little or no impact.
Leavers getting it wrong looks like they wrecked the economy to satisfy their EU obsession.
The facts do not matter - perception is everything.
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
I remember a family get together, with folks flown in from the US, at a great Thai restaurant in Rochester. My brother, who had gastric issues at the time, announced he couldn't eat anything on the menu so we all ended up in the 'spoons next door. The food was vile.
My sympathies. You'd have been better paying the Thai guys to let you bring the Spoons shite in!
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
I would rather remain than no deal, but we have no hope of agreeing a deal if remain is put in place again. If people want remain, and of story, that's fine, but don't pretend to trying to brexit when something like revocation is only about remaining.
The suggestion is that nine Government ministers have told their associations to prepare for a GE. Four of them named February 28th as the date, according to this report.
If May's plan B is to request a dissolution on Monday then a two-thirds majority in Parliament does away with the need for the fourteen days' pantomime, meaning that February 28th is doable.
The last time a Conservative PM went for an election on Feb 28th it didn't end well and he was starting with a majority.
Why do we need a GE? What will it achieve? All it will do is waste valuable preparation time for 29/3. Sheer unadulterated futility.
We don't, and all the polling indicates the public feel the same. My guess/hope is that it is just contingency planning in case things fall apart.
It was mooted on here a couple of months back that CCHQ seemed to be preparing for an election. Pb also discussed the viability of alcohol-free wine and now the shops are full of the stuff, along with fruit-flavoured beer. What a time to be alive!
Brexit dates: I've taken most of my profits now since it is hard to quantify the likelihood of any of the numerous implausible steps that need to happen before any of the possible outcomes.
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
I would be relieved. I do not want a shambles, but I expect it. Not the same thing.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious.
I'm not sure why one group of people getting it wrong (Remainers) only 'look a bit daft' when another group would be considered 'mendacious'? If WTO Apocalypse is wrong then it will leave some of us wondering how many other times false fear has been used to hold the country back; whether that be Brexit, unilateral disarmament or (bless him) Neil Kinnock.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
I used to buy mutton a lot as it was always really cheap and tasted pretty much the same as lamb. Can't seem to get it anywhere anymore.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
Not in the hands of Theresa "The Re-animator" May......
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
I used to go in the Briar Rose on Bennett’s Hill in Central Birmingham which had a great selection of real ales and you didn’t see any of the fellow professional types who preferred the wine bars off Colmore Row. They also used to do a pint of real ale and a chicken burger (which was a chicken breast) on a bun with chips and salad - 5 quid for both. That’s about 5 years ago mind you but outstanding valued if you go in the right one.
I very much doubt the chicken was high welfare. I don't eat any chicken that isn't free range and I'd encourage others to observe similar standards.
I find it so depressing that even at Cabinet level there's not a hint of unity and that a GE of all things seems to be among the most popular options to this crisis. We seem no closer to anyone willing to bend, just demanding others do what they want it else demanding things not in the gift of those it is demanded of.
There seems to be nothing that will break this deadlock.
Maybe they should just toss a coin for each option.
They'd argue over which coin and the process of flipping it.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
I used to buy mutton a lot as it was always really cheap and tasted pretty much the same as lamb. Can't seem to get it anywhere anymore.
Go to a halal butcher (or an Afro-Caribbean butcher if you object to halal) and you'll find mutton and goat.
You do realise if WTO tariffs are levied that will inflationary speaking just be a tax levied by our government with the funds going to our government. No different to an increase in VAT. In fact the VAT increase years ago probably had a bigger inflationary impact than any tariff changes will do.
You do realise that if WTO hits Jo Bloggs's pocket they will not give a d*mn about the finer details of the financial settlement?
But if the EU aren't prepared to offer us a good deal then I don't see why Irish produce shouldn't see the same tariffs as Kiwi produce.
The Kiwis are not in the EU. Ireland is. Start there...
Well the government could lower VAT to counteract the changes, which I think was in the part of Philip's comment that you trimmed out.
My apologies for the trimming, I did not intend to edit his meaning (that is his job) but as he points out, it only works when VAT is more than the tariff and there is more to WTO than just tariffs.
There are the non-tariff barriers too. VAT offset will not help there
I'd like to say this further reinforces my man of the people credentials but my date was late and we going to see a gig at the Manchester Arena so the only option to eat something was at the McDonalds in Victoria Station/Arena.
I would rather remain than no deal, but we have no hope of agreeing a deal if remain is put in place again. If people want remain, and of story, that's fine, but don't pretend to trying to brexit when something like revocation is only about remaining.
After seeing on Question Time a room full of baying leavers whooping like demonic gammonlords at the thought of crashing out without a deal, I have come to realise something important:
None of it matters. The People have succumbed to nihilism, and there is no argument for nihilism. Everyone is determined to maximise the suffering of others, because nothing has meaning, but at least suffering helps us feel.
So, if we remain, we're gonna have angry nationalist fash uprising, with rioting and burning streets If we leave, we're gonna have economic ruin, people will run out of food and meds, and there's gonna be rioting and burning streets.
All roads lead to burning. Embrace it. Nothing has meaning. We are nihilists now.
The last few times I had McDonalds, some time ago, was after hospital visits. It was late at night, and they were one of the few places open. I quite liked the salt, despite the potato strips I found in it.
The last few times I had McDonalds, some time ago, was before hospital visits....
IT would be a suitable irony, from a vengeful universe, if we were to crash out after a GE, called to break the deadlock, returned an identical result. Not impossible, by any means.
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
I used to buy mutton a lot as it was always really cheap and tasted pretty much the same as lamb. Can't seem to get it anywhere anymore.
If you think mutton is "pretty much" the same as lamb, I pity your palate!
So many talk about stopping no deal but it amazes me that they think saying it it will happen
There were several examples of mps yesterday on the media saying it has to be stopped but not how
Some of these politicians say TM is to blame for the 29th March no deal exit date, but 498 of them voted for it and simply had not thought if through. Each and every one of them shares collective responsibility although not the 114 who voted against
There are only 3 ways to stop it. Sign a deal (there is one ready to go), revoke A50 or extend it, subject to the 27 EU countries terms
But you also have to have a government to put forward the legislation and a HOC to vote for it
So when anyone says stop no deal, they have to say how
I think people are deliberately being overly pedantic about this. When people say Theresa May should rule out no deal, they mean rule out it ever being the government's position, and that furthermore she should commit to doing everything in her power to avert it (rather than just everything that respects her red lines, or everything that keeps her party on side, etc.)
I also think it is within her power practically. If she put forward a bill saying that, if no deal is reached by March 28th, we will automatically revoke A50, I'm pretty certain that would get through parliament. Not doing so is her choice, whether or not that's a justifiable choice.
Absolutely spot on.
I disagree. The scenario laid out therr is she should ensure we remain if no agreement is reached, just another transparent ploy to ensure half of parliament has no incentive to even try to reach agreement. Any option which involves revocation immediately means no brexit deal will get through, and that would be the aim.
If we can't get a deal then obviously we should remain.
We have a deal, so there ends your argument.
Really? Where? You mean the one that was rejected by the biggest govt revolt in history? That now-deader-then-mutton Deal?
I used to buy mutton a lot as it was always really cheap and tasted pretty much the same as lamb. Can't seem to get it anywhere anymore.
If you think mutton is "pretty much" the same as lamb, I pity your palate!
Well I suppose if you aren't bothered about things like truth and facts then trifles like copyright law can be dismissed at will.
Wetherspoons has a magazine?
God, yes. Along with the manager and staff of the Elmer Chickenshit pub taking part in a worthy fun run for charity it is pages and pages of full scale Brexit paranoia. The other day I was stuck at the airport as the weather closed in with nothing to entertain me except Wetherspoon's Mein Kampf levels of hatred against the elites and how they were betraying the people of Britain.
The elites that own chains of pubs are an exception of course.
Hardly elite pubs. though. I made the mistake of going to one once and ordering some food. It's not a mistake I shall ever make again.
The Wetherspoons in Spennymoor is outstandingly good value.
None of them are particularly good value. You pay low prices, for absolutely bloody awful food.
I used to go in the Briar Rose on Bennett’s Hill in Central Birmingham which had a great selection of real ales and you didn’t see any of the fellow professional types who preferred the wine bars off Colmore Row. They also used to do a pint of real ale and a chicken burger (which was a chicken breast) on a bun with chips and salad - 5 quid for both. That’s about 5 years ago mind you but outstanding valued if you go in the right one.
I very much doubt the chicken was high welfare. I don't eat any chicken that isn't free range and I'd encourage others to observe similar standards.
I'm no fan of Wetherspoons but you really shouldn't make comments like that these days when it is so easy to check first.
The more I think about this, the more utterly brilliant it becomes in terms of a Machiavellian masterstroke.
May tries to dissolve Parliament on Monday. GE takes place Feb 28.
Too late for any party to say they would renegotiate a 'jobs-first Brexit' with the EU now. It's the "Noel Edmonds General Election": de facto 'Deal or No Deal'.
Lib Dems will stand for Remain - naturally. So will the SNP. But the Tories stand on a 'Theresa May's Deal' or no Deal platform. It's a twisted, nightmarish #PeoplesVote that even the most hardcore Remainer could never have imagined. And the fact that the ECJ has said we can revoke at any point just adds to the mix. Tories may not be scared by possibility of no Brexit, but I bet the Leavers will.
If Labour stand on a 'No Deal' platform they will be crucified by Remainers and Business alike. If they stand on a 'Remain' platform they will hemorrhage WWC voters in droves. Who will doubtless vote Tory. No time for UKIP to try to get something up and running either to hollow out the Tory vote.
As I say, a masterstroke. I'm in awe. Even before Christmas, she couldn't have pulled this off as they might have been time to claim a renegotiation for Labour. Providing May doesn't do anything stupid (not guaranteed) during the campaign, expect a landslide Tory victory, and 'The Deal' in law ready to exit the EU on March 29th.
Which means, if Labour *really* want to survive all of this, and want to leave the Tories with a No Deal disaster, they should do everything in their power *not* to agree to dissolve Parliament on Monday. And how will that look in the eyes of everyone?
But what makes you think it won't just be continuing utter stupidity after we No Deal Brexit ?
The rest of the world and WTO barriers. There is nothing like a massive inflationary spike to concentrate minds and the JAMs will not be JAMing and the Unions will be in bolshy mood.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
And (hypothetically) if the fears turn out to be overblown and we do manage just fine would you be relieved or disappointed?
I would be relieved. I do not want a shambles, but I expect it. Not the same thing.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious.
I'm not sure why one group of people getting it wrong (Remainers) only 'look a bit daft' when another group would be considered 'mendacious'? If WTO Apocalypse is wrong then it will leave some of us wondering how many other times false fear has been used to hold the country back; whether that be Brexit, unilateral disarmament or (bless him) Neil Kinnock.
Remainers getting it wrong has little or no impact.
Leavers.
The facts do not matter - perception is everything.
you miss that the country is split 50-50
Leavers have perceptions too and they will blame remain as basically has been the case on PB for the last 2 years. leavers are already staring from remainers getting it wrong and wrecking the economy to satisfy their EU obsession. Remain is just catching up.
Comments
The ERG and the Hard Remainers would both be stuck with the manifesto (caveat: one or two of the latter *might* be able to defect to the Lib Dems, but not a significant number.) Certainly there would be no time for the ERG wing to set up a new party, even if it had the inclination to break away (which it probably would not as a split between the Deal/Soft Brexit faction and the Hard Brexit faction would create a circular firing squad.)
The GE acts as a proxy referendum on the Deal. The Tories win and T May checkmates all of her internal party opponents and gets the Deal passed. They fail to win and she resigns, and somebody else (from whichever party or combination of parties can command a majority) has a go at making a different solution work. Under those circumstances, the Tories would be best off if Corbyn was put in the driving seat at the head of a rickety Left coalition, and compelled to implement a solution that will alienate Leave-supporting voters.
Next people will be saying they've never had sausage, egg, chips, beans, and a slice.
If we have to queue for basics, Soviet Union style - even for as little as a week - do you think any government would survive that or be considered re-electable within living memory?
It is the Tories problem. They created this shambles.
Yes, Labour pass the WA (which is all the EU really care about right now) in return for a post Brexit GE in May/June. I have that as a possible too. Would mean May stepping down earlier than she would wish, but maybe she accepts that if it gets her out of this bind.
PS: No big betting move on a 2019 GE as yet that I can detect.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20324304
https://explore.flyingwinemaker.com.hk/wine-education/wine-tips/how-to-pair-mcdonalds-with-wine
Plus I suspect if the EU were asked if it needed the UK to be great it's institutions would laugh. So it's not as though it'd be that diminished.
It's the low probability of what replaces them being any better that worries me.
If the government wanted to they could apply WTO tariffs and cut VAT. We wouldn't see any inflation overall though domestic goods and non-EU goods would become relatively cheaper and EU goods relatively more expensive.
But if the EU aren't prepared to offer us a good deal then I don't see why Irish produce shouldn't see the same tariffs as Kiwi produce.
Some more creative thinking will be required to offset the 80% on Irish beef and 40% on French Yoghurts, but I am sure some smart young civil servant can come up with some whizzo plans.
Isn’t part of the deals problem it’s not actually a deal? It’s a withdraw agreement, the ‘deal’ end of it is still very ...nebulous, and this makes the end point all things to all people, supporters and opponents?
For example, spot the odd one out
Remain, on current terms
Leave to a Free Trade Arrangement (similar to Canada’s relationship to EU)
Mays Withdrawal Agreement.
If we are being strict that the only way out this crisis the only thing allowed on a ballot paper is where you clearly know where you are going to end up, the WA aka Mays nebulous deal wouldn’t make it on that ballot would it?
We've not even gone back to the EU and said Parliament has rejected the backstop it needs to be removed or we have no deal.
I have constantly argued that if Remainers are wrong about the WTO Apocalypse then we just look a bit daft, no real harm done. OTOH, if Leaver Complacency is wrong about WTO then we have a disaster and they look like liars or mendacious fools.
If I want a meal out I go somewhere else.
The closest it gets to a deal is of course the terms of the backstop which, as any fule could guess, will with a very high probability be invoked, given the short timeframe to negotiate the actual deal.
The Kiwis are not in the EU. Ireland is. Start there...
There seems to be nothing that will break this deadlock.
I presume May hopes she’ll get a majority and won’t have to rely on the DUP or ERG. If so, she’s deluded
(or a Nandos)
Leavers getting it wrong looks like they wrecked the economy to satisfy their EU obsession.
The facts do not matter - perception is everything.
Brexit dates: I've taken most of my profits now since it is hard to quantify the likelihood of any of the numerous implausible steps that need to happen before any of the possible outcomes.
They are frequented by people who think Die Hard is a Christmas film and pineapple is an acceptable topping for pizza.
Not at all. Having standards in what you put into your body and into your children's bodies isn't snobbish.
There are the non-tariff barriers too. VAT offset will not help there
I'd like to say this further reinforces my man of the people credentials but my date was late and we going to see a gig at the Manchester Arena so the only option to eat something was at the McDonalds in Victoria Station/Arena.
None of it matters. The People have succumbed to nihilism, and there is no argument for nihilism. Everyone is determined to maximise the suffering of others, because nothing has meaning, but at least suffering helps us feel.
So, if we remain, we're gonna have angry nationalist fash uprising, with rioting and burning streets
If we leave, we're gonna have economic ruin, people will run out of food and meds, and there's gonna be rioting and burning streets.
All roads lead to burning. Embrace it. Nothing has meaning. We are nihilists now.
(Only joking, McD's lawyers!)
Later peeps!
Not impossible, by any means.
(Only joking, McD's lawyers!)
https://www.jdwetherspoon.com/food/food-provenance/our-poultry
May tries to dissolve Parliament on Monday. GE takes place Feb 28.
Too late for any party to say they would renegotiate a 'jobs-first Brexit' with the EU now. It's the "Noel Edmonds General Election": de facto 'Deal or No Deal'.
Lib Dems will stand for Remain - naturally. So will the SNP. But the Tories stand on a 'Theresa May's Deal' or no Deal platform. It's a twisted, nightmarish #PeoplesVote that even the most hardcore Remainer could never have imagined. And the fact that the ECJ has said we can revoke at any point just adds to the mix. Tories may not be scared by possibility of no Brexit, but I bet the Leavers will.
If Labour stand on a 'No Deal' platform they will be crucified by Remainers and Business alike. If they stand on a 'Remain' platform they will hemorrhage WWC voters in droves. Who will doubtless vote Tory. No time for UKIP to try to get something up and running either to hollow out the Tory vote.
As I say, a masterstroke. I'm in awe. Even before Christmas, she couldn't have pulled this off as they might have been time to claim a renegotiation for Labour. Providing May doesn't do anything stupid (not guaranteed) during the campaign, expect a landslide Tory victory, and 'The Deal' in law ready to exit the EU on March 29th.
Which means, if Labour *really* want to survive all of this, and want to leave the Tories with a No Deal disaster, they should do everything in their power *not* to agree to dissolve Parliament on Monday. And how will that look in the eyes of everyone?
Discuss!
Leavers have perceptions too and they will blame remain as basically has been the case on PB for the last 2 years. leavers are already staring from remainers getting it wrong and wrecking the economy to satisfy their EU obsession. Remain is just catching up.