And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Montenegro or Mongolia are the only two that I could find with a red background and yellow border.
A group of heroes, to be sure. Able as well to know perfectly how to face down and outwit the EU, and yet contains a group who by their own admission were outwitted by May since they did not know what she was up to.
Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.
In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.
Murray himself once compared Mo Farah being able to run the 25th 400m of a 10K race in 53 seconds while Murray could only manage 57 seconds for his first 400m repetition. So Farah it is.
Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?
Yes. I'm sick to my stomach. It's the uncertainty that is so awful, since we know what the three options on the table are, but there'll be so much nonsense and chaos until we get there.
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.
From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
As I said, morons. Greatly entertained though that they consider a mass rebellion by Tory MPs against a Tory government delivering a policy in the Tory manifesto as the best way to secure votes for the Tories in future
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.
Is that all perfectly clear now?
You forgot that Brexit isn't Brexit unless it is Brexit Brexit, rather than just Brexit.
From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
As I said, morons. Greatly entertained though that they consider a mass rebellion by Tory MPs against a Tory government delivering a policy in the Tory manifesto as the best way to secure votes for the Tories in future
That said, they’re still better than the lickspittles who are happy for their party to be led by an antisemitic terrorist-sympathising malingerer.
A group of heroes, to be sure. Able as well to know perfectly how to face down and outwit the EU, and yet contains a group who by their own admission were outwitted by May since they did not know what she was up to.
I think most of them must have been fast asleep when they were ministers.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Montenegro or Mongolia are the only two that I could find with a red background and yellow border.
I don't think Mongolia existed as a country in 1900. I wondered if it was the flag of an anti-Boxer faction of the Qing dynasty, but I cannot find one that looks like that.
Ah, Montenegro had a white border back in 1900, and you are right that the Mongolian flag was from 1911. The hunt continues...
Romania has a bit of yellow and red - but the blue's missing!
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Whilst all parties insist there will be no hard border.......
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.
Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?
I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.
That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.
The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.
Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.
The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.
Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.
Only if they are no deal supporters. Plenty are still peddling unicorn new deals.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.
That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.
That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.
Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.
If one thinks that the WA makes us the EU's vassal, I suppose that 's correct. But, it 's a daft belief.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
Some of the Brexiteers seem to think it a badge of honour that Ireland is about to get caught in the crossfire of our grotesque national psychosis. Harming millions out of spite towards Leo Varadkar for being better at negotiation than us.
Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
Some of the Brexiteers seem to think it a badge of honour that Ireland is about to get caught in the crossfire of our grotesque national psychosis. Harming millions out of spite towards Leo Varadkar for being better at negotiation than us.
The Buccaneers have a huge American shock coming for them if there is a No Deal. A Democrat-controlled House will see to that.
Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain .....
Oooh, you can't say that. It's not that they want remain, honest. It's just they don't want the deal, or no-deal, or .......... anything else that involves leaving.
Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.
Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.
That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Surely the harm from no deal comes straight away though, and if the Irish push us down that route we will already have realised some of the downside. So less of a reason to compromise?
Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?
I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.
The style suggests to me late Victorian rather than 1919. Who was the manufacturer? any identifying marks on the rear.
There also appear to be fewer stars on the US flag (possibly just a painting issue) , and curious to use the Japanese Naval flag rather than the national one.
Perhaps it is specific to one of the campaigns of the Boxer Rebellion, though that prostate eagle would be anodd symbol for China.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?
I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.
Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.
And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.
And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle
And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.
Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!
The other issue is the DUP may be acting rationally depending on what they really want. If they've realised how deeply in over their head they now are then the sequence May's Deal Dies > Soft/No Brexit and No Backstop may be their way out of the burning building.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
That's an engineering problem. I acknowledge the size of the major task, but conceptually it's handleable: you just build stuff. It takes time and it costs money, but when it's done it's done.
Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland). Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop. The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
The other issue is the DUP may be acting rationally depending on what they really want. If they've realised how deeply in over their head they now are then the sequence May's Deal Dies > Soft/No Brexit and No Backstop may be their way out of the burning building.
Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.
Yep, it is. MPs are rabbits caught in headlights. The government is no better. No Deal is the default. And there is no plan to prevent it with anything close to majority support.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.
Yep, it is. MPs are rabbits caught in headlights. The government is no better. No Deal is the default. And there is no plan to prevent it with anything close to majority support.
We don't know, for sure, but it certainly could happen. Many MP's are willing to risk getting what they most hate,
Then there are the ERGers who realise voting down May's deal will only lead to soggier Brexit but think that's a good thing for accelerationist purposes. They are acting rationally as well.
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
[I'm not up on the lingo, but CET = Common European Tariff?] Tariffs are imposed by the country on imports coming in. So the CET would be imposed by Ireland on British imports coming into Ireland. They won't be imposed on Irish exports going into the UK. So if 80% of cheddar consumed in the UK is made in the Republic, then they won't be affected by the CET.
As for the land bridge, are you seriously suggesting Irish lorries won't be allowed to use UK roads? How do you suggest stopping them? Gunfire? Legislation?
As for container or RORO port capacity...it can be built.
As for "high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop."...I must confess I don't understand this point. Are you suggesting Irish companies can no longer invoice UK firms?
As for "The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.", I believe you. But IIUC the list is primarily engineering problems: they have to build new facilities in different places. Fine, they can do that. There's a difference between "difficult" and "too difficult", and things like building new facilities is the former. Unlike the ERG, I think the Irish are perfectly capable of building things.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland). Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop. The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland). Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop. The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
Britain and Ireland both claim wish to avoid a return to a hard border. Britain keeps refusing any attempts to guarantee it, whilst the EU shows solidarity with its member.
Then there are the ERGers who know they are acting irrationally but just don't care as they don't want to have on record they voted for vassal state as they know how unpopular it will become once it's the Status Quo.
Put simply if there were any demand for May's brand of weary, incrementalist realpolitik we'd have voted Remain in the first place or probably never even have held the referendum.
Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.
In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.
Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland). Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop. The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
What the Irish want is no change to trade at all, nothing including any electronic form filling, this can only basically be achieved by the UK remaining in the EU and that is the Irish position.
We can be 100% sure that May's deal is not going to pass by March 29th.
So the 21% betting odds that Brexit will happen by March 29th is saying that there is a 21% chance of a No Deal Brexit, since that is the default to May's deal
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
Not sure what would happen, it could be a stirring Euro-patriotic reverse Berlin airlift.
Massive international publicity and associated EU/US wide ' Buy Irish ' campaigns as well boycotts of UK agricultural products. Nothing would immeadiately unite transatlantic popular outrage than the Brits driving Irish farmers into penury. All campaign outlines will already be drafted and in draws somewhere.
Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.
In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.
Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
Britain and Ireland both claim wish to avoid a return to a hard border. Britain keeps refusing any attempts to guarantee it, whilst the EU shows solidarity with its member.
I think we're the baddies here, not they.
Well, in truth, we're not baddies - Brexiteers who either lied or were ignorant of the issue, or professed to believe in a soft Brexit that was the only really compatible solution in the short to medium term, were.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland). Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop. The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
What the Irish want is no change to trade at all, nothing including any electronic form filling, this can only basically be achieved by the UK remaining in the EU and that is the Irish position.
We can be 100% sure that May's deal is not going to pass by March 29th.
So the 21% betting odds that Brexit will happen by March 29th is saying that there is a 21% chance of a No Deal Brexit, since that is the default to May's deal
Let's not exaggerate, the odds of May's deal passing by then aren't great, but they're better than 0%.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
Mostly 3% tarriffs I believe but a bigger problem is country of origin checks and other paperwork holding things up.
Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.
Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
That's an engineering problem. I acknowledge the size of the major task, but conceptually it's handleable: you just build stuff. It takes time and it costs money, but when it's done it's done.
It's a very big engineering problem and if they'd started two years ago it might have been possible, but they didn't.
A no deal Brexit will bring economic carnage to Ireland, which frankly I'm entirely ok with.
Why Mrs May isn't holding a gun to the Irish head as a negotiating tactic escapes me; a "Give us what we need or the Paddies get it" Brexit.
Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.
In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.
Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):
How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?
In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.
Scotland's greatest sportsman?
Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish, Bill Shankly, Matt Busby, Chris Hoy, Jackie Stewart and a few others might have something to say about that...depending on if you class the likes of F1, snooker, etc as a sport.
Comments
From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
Is that all perfectly clear now?
Unless it doesn't...
Goodnight and good luck.
On that note, good night and sweet dreams!
Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.
It's Malta, isn't it?!
Yeah, Malta. That was it...
̣̬͖M͎̭͇̭̜̞y ̞͕͇̦d̡̤̻̱̩ȩ̹͈̣̟a̧͔͕̬̤̰̪l͙̬̟̗̜̀ ̨̩̩̗̘̥̜ì̖s͚̞̙̯ ҉̘t̮̞̜͓̜̩̠h͍̬e̤̻̖ b̷e̵͇̠s̷̩̹t̳̫̜ ̗̮̞̜̘͙̱͜d̳̤̺̱́e̢͚͖a̤͖̙̤̮͈͞l͡ ̨a̛̯n͙̥̹̮͍̰d͔ ̭̳th̪̝̖̼̺e̻ o̯̬̝n͔̝̣͎̠̮͠ḻ̺y͍̬̙̝̺̙̭ ̶̥d͏̙̭̗͚̥e͉͜al̛ ̰̬͉̳͖̥ͅa̹͔̹̱v̕a̟͉̰̦̣ì̮͕̲̬̠̖͈l͏̻̰a̢͎̥b͟ḽ̺̗̣͍͓e̝͉̳
̰̰͕̟̯̟I̙̞͓͙̭̥ ͍̟a͖̺̲͢m̳̻͎͘ ̰̫͚̤g̦͔͇̣̫̫̝ḙ͙̮͢ṭti̤̻͔̱n̰͡g̞̯̦̩͞ͅ ̴o̱̩̘̖̹̝n ̳̮̬̳̠w̢̪i̻͉̼̜͕͕͈t̶̹̙̱h͓͍̖̺͜ ̰͚͔͔̭t͚̲̳̱͚̩h̷̲e ͔̭͙ͅjo̮͚̩͖͚̖̫b̯͖̥͍̻ ̤͍̫̼̞͞o̢̺f̠̟ ̵̤̖̗de̯͇̦̤̝̫͔͢l͔͖̼̟̭̣͙i̭v̷͔͕̮̞͇ḛ͚͉̯̣r̪̘i̲̦̫̗͚͇̫n̸͚̯g̮ ͏̪͔B͕̟͉͖͉̗r͎̙̟̯̹̕e̤͟x̗̲̰̣i̺͙̪̱̘̝͝t̞̳̖͠
There also appear to be fewer stars on the US flag (possibly just a painting issue) , and curious to use the Japanese Naval flag rather than the national one.
Perhaps it is specific to one of the campaigns of the Boxer Rebellion, though that prostate eagle would be anodd symbol for China.
Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
Don't forget to leave a glass of warm water and a slice of stale bread out for Theresa May since it's Meaningful Vote Eve.
As for the land bridge, are you seriously suggesting Irish lorries won't be allowed to use UK roads? How do you suggest stopping them? Gunfire? Legislation?
As for container or RORO port capacity...it can be built.
As for "high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop."...I must confess I don't understand this point. Are you suggesting Irish companies can no longer invoice UK firms?
As for "The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.", I believe you. But IIUC the list is primarily engineering problems: they have to build new facilities in different places. Fine, they can do that. There's a difference between "difficult" and "too difficult", and things like building new facilities is the former. Unlike the ERG, I think the Irish are perfectly capable of building things.
I think we're the baddies here, not they.
What it is is volatile.
Is there a volatility index to back?
Put simply if there were any demand for May's brand of weary, incrementalist realpolitik we'd have voted Remain in the first place or probably never even have held the referendum.
Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.
How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?
In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.
Guess YouGov could be right and all the others wrong, but seems very strange.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
innocent face
So the 21% betting odds that Brexit will happen by March 29th is saying that there is a 21% chance of a No Deal Brexit, since that is the default to May's deal
A no deal Brexit will bring economic carnage to Ireland, which frankly I'm entirely ok with.
Why Mrs May isn't holding a gun to the Irish head as a negotiating tactic escapes me; a "Give us what we need or the Paddies get it" Brexit.