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  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    Persia?

    https://fotw.info/flags/mn-early.html

    image
    Persia was neutral.
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    It's a World War 1 commemorative plate.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    It's a World War 1 commemorative plate.
    What's your point?
  • RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Montenegro or Mongolia are the only two that I could find with a red background and yellow border.
    Montenegro didn't have a flag like that in WW1
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Scott_P said:
    What’s the opposite of a Disciple?

    From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    A group of heroes, to be sure. Able as well to know perfectly how to face down and outwit the EU, and yet contains a group who by their own admission were outwitted by May since they did not know what she was up to.
  • Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

    God this is even more OTT....

    Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

    In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

    Murray himself once compared Mo Farah being able to run the 25th 400m of a 10K race in 53 seconds while Murray could only manage 57 seconds for his first 400m repetition. So Farah it is.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?

    No. There are far worse things to be excited about. Dogging, for instance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?

    Yes. I'm sick to my stomach. It's the uncertainty that is so awful, since we know what the three options on the table are, but there'll be so much nonsense and chaos until we get there.
  • So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RoyalBlue said:
    A ciple?
  • So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?

    Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.

    Is that all perfectly clear now?
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?

    Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.

    Is that all perfectly clear now?
    :cry:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?

    Yes. We're not spectators, we're participants. And we're not the protagonists.
  • RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What’s the opposite of a Disciple?

    From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
    As I said, morons. Greatly entertained though that they consider a mass rebellion by Tory MPs against a Tory government delivering a policy in the Tory manifesto as the best way to secure votes for the Tories in future
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?

    Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.

    Is that all perfectly clear now?
    You forgot that Brexit isn't Brexit unless it is Brexit Brexit, rather than just Brexit.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RoyalBlue said:

    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?

    No. There are far worse things to be excited about. Dogging, for instance.
    That was random :-)
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:
    What’s the opposite of a Disciple?

    From now on, we can refer to these people as Satan’s little helpers. God preserve us from their cretinous idiocy.
    As I said, morons. Greatly entertained though that they consider a mass rebellion by Tory MPs against a Tory government delivering a policy in the Tory manifesto as the best way to secure votes for the Tories in future
    That said, they’re still better than the lickspittles who are happy for their party to be led by an antisemitic terrorist-sympathising malingerer.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    You forgot that Brexit isn't Brexit unless it is Brexit Brexit, rather than just Brexit.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    Unless it doesn't...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    A group of heroes, to be sure. Able as well to know perfectly how to face down and outwit the EU, and yet contains a group who by their own admission were outwitted by May since they did not know what she was up to.
    I think most of them must have been fast asleep when they were ministers.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    “No deal is better than a bad deal” T May

    Goodnight and good luck.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Floater said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Is it stupid that I'm actually excited for tomorrow?

    No. There are far worse things to be excited about. Dogging, for instance.
    That was random :-)
    We’re talking about Brexit, after all.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    Scott_P said:
    I refer you to Viewcode's Typology.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2019
    Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?

    Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.

    Is that all perfectly clear now?
    Are they actually brain -damaged, do you think?
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    It's a World War 1 commemorative plate.
    What's your point?
    It's not Boxer Rebellion as suggested up-thread.
  • Sean_F said:

    So in order to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, MPs are going to vote against May's deal (the only one the EU seem to be offering us at the mo) which will risk, er, a No-Deal Brexit?

    Yes, and other MPs, in order to ensure Brexit happens, will vote against the deal which implements it.

    Is that all perfectly clear now?
    Are they actually brain -damaged, do you think?
    It seems to be some kind of mass hysteria.
  • Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited January 2019
    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May 'will have to stand down' if she suffers heavy defeat in Brexit vote, Cabinet ministers suggest"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/14/theresa-may-will-asked-stand-suffers-heavy-defeat-brexit-vote/

    TND was saying on Newsnight that TM won't resign... Not sure whether that means she's out in 24hrs time or not! :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,895
    edited January 2019
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Montenegro or Mongolia are the only two that I could find with a red background and yellow border.
    I don't think Mongolia existed as a country in 1900. I wondered if it was the flag of an anti-Boxer faction of the Qing dynasty, but I cannot find one that looks like that.
    Ah, Montenegro had a white border back in 1900, and you are right that the Mongolian flag was from 1911. The hunt continues...
    Romania has a bit of yellow and red - but the blue's missing!
  • Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Scott_P said:
    I don't think that 's the killer point he thinks it is.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    You forgot that Brexit isn't Brexit unless it is Brexit Brexit, rather than just Brexit.

    Brexit means Brexit.

    Unless it doesn't...
    No Deal Brexit means Brexit.......
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May 'will have to stand down' if she suffers heavy defeat in Brexit vote, Cabinet ministers suggest"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/14/theresa-may-will-asked-stand-suffers-heavy-defeat-brexit-vote/

    She won't.
    Something tells me she will need to be prised out
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    It's a World War 1 commemorative plate.
    Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    Persia?

    https://fotw.info/flags/mn-early.html

    image
    Persia was neutral.
    Ceylon?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Whilst all parties insist there will be no hard border.......

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Scott_P said:
    HM rule by decree incoming. Preferable to the current lot :D
  • Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.

    They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.

  • Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?

    I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    HM rule by decree incoming. Preferable to the current lot :D
    In the current climate I think a referendum on letting Her Majesty decide what to do about Brexit might not be the worst idea.

    On that note, good night and sweet dreams!
  • Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.

    They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.

    That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.
  • The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.

    Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.

    Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.

    Only if they are no deal supporters. Plenty are still peddling unicorn new deals.
  • Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.

    They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.

    That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2019

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.

    They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.

    That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Oh, wait, no, now let me guess....

    It's Malta, isn't it?!

    Yeah, Malta. That was it...

    :)

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    The ERGers are of course right and rational. If May's vassalage deal is the best that can be delivered with the referendum result fresh and undischarged then the chances of End State getting any softer are nil. The clock just resets to 15 months till the deadline on the extension vote. End State won't be ready in 15 months so we'll have the same debate. No Deal or extend. We'll extend. Then the clock resets to 26 months between the extension vote and End State. But if we don't want the back stop then End State needs to look like Transition does. And of course the parliamentry term ends before End State happens which adds massive risk of a europhile government completing End State.

    Basically if you are an ERGer it's now or never. You think ( rightly ) that May's deal is vassalage and the momentum is only moving away from you. I think they are both correct and being quite rational.

    If one thinks that the WA makes us the EU's vassal, I suppose that 's correct. But, it 's a daft belief.
  • Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.

    We’ll be on our own. Ireland won’t be. It will be helped by both the EU and the US.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    Some of the Brexiteers seem to think it a badge of honour that Ireland is about to get caught in the crossfire of our grotesque national psychosis. Harming millions out of spite towards Leo Varadkar for being better at negotiation than us.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Floater said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May 'will have to stand down' if she suffers heavy defeat in Brexit vote, Cabinet ministers suggest"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/14/theresa-may-will-asked-stand-suffers-heavy-defeat-brexit-vote/

    She won't.
    Something tells me she will need to be prised out
    In December.......
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.

    I̻ ̹̭̕h̘̫͓ḁ̱̦̬v͈͎e͈̱̯͚͎̱͕ ̘̗͔̺̼̯ͅb̳̖͎̙̩̜e̦͝e̜̠͕̠̫̤n̤͕̞̖̮̞ ̸c̦͓ͅͅr̫̼̲̜̭͙y̖̱̩̤̠s̲̺̣̗ͅt͈͉͎͔̙a҉̰̳͔͎͈̣͎l̢͍̟ ͙̫̺̗͎͡c͎̻̤̖͢ͅle͉ą̹͇͍̺ͅr͖ ̵͉̜̦͉t̷̤̩̫̱̫h̩a̦̭̳t ҉̣̞̜no͙͚͍̩ͅt̟͖̖̗ḫ̺͙̣͇͓͚i̛̳̘n̬̩g͖̤ ̡̪̖͎͙̬͖h̫͖̣̦̼̗ͅa͓̠̤ͅs̰ ͖̻̭̞c̭̞h̡a̖̻̻͖̭ͅͅn͉͍̻͞g҉e͎͕͚͕̥͇d̤
    ̣̬͖M͎̭͇̭̜̞y ̞͕͇̦d̡̤̻̱̩ȩ̹͈̣̟a̧͔͕̬̤̰̪l͙̬̟̗̜̀ ̨̩̩̗̘̥̜ì̖s͚̞̙̯ ҉̘t̮̞̜͓̜̩̠h͍̬e̤̻̖ b̷e̵͇̠s̷̩̹t̳̫̜ ̗̮̞̜̘͙̱͜d̳̤̺̱́e̢͚͖a̤͖̙̤̮͈͞l͡ ̨a̛̯n͙̥̹̮͍̰d͔ ̭̳th̪̝̖̼̺e̻ o̯̬̝n͔̝̣͎̠̮͠ḻ̺y͍̬̙̝̺̙̭ ̶̥d͏̙̭̗͚̥e͉͜al̛ ̰̬͉̳͖̥ͅa̹͔̹̱v̕a̟͉̰̦̣ì̮͕̲̬̠̖͈l͏̻̰a̢͎̥b͟ḽ̺̗̣͍͓e̝͉̳
    ̰̰͕̟̯̟I̙̞͓͙̭̥ ͍̟a͖̺̲͢m̳̻͎͘ ̰̫͚̤g̦͔͇̣̫̫̝ḙ͙̮͢ṭti̤̻͔̱n̰͡g̞̯̦̩͞ͅ ̴o̱̩̘̖̹̝n ̳̮̬̳̠w̢̪i̻͉̼̜͕͕͈t̶̹̙̱h͓͍̖̺͜ ̰͚͔͔̭t͚̲̳̱͚̩h̷̲e ͔̭͙ͅjo̮͚̩͖͚̖̫b̯͖̥͍̻ ̤͍̫̼̞͞o̢̺f̠̟ ̵̤̖̗de̯͇̦̤̝̫͔͢l͔͖̼̟̭̣͙i̭v̷͔͕̮̞͇ḛ͚͉̯̣r̪̘i̲̦̫̗͚͇̫n̸͚̯g̮ ͏̪͔B͕̟͉͖͉̗r͎̙̟̯̹̕e̤͟x̗̲̰̣i̺͙̪̱̘̝͝t̞̳̖͠
  • Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    Some of the Brexiteers seem to think it a badge of honour that Ireland is about to get caught in the crossfire of our grotesque national psychosis. Harming millions out of spite towards Leo Varadkar for being better at negotiation than us.

    The Buccaneers have a huge American shock coming for them if there is a No Deal. A Democrat-controlled House will see to that.

  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain .....

    Oooh, you can't say that. It's not that they want remain, honest. It's just they don't want the deal, or no-deal, or .......... anything else that involves leaving.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Oh, and all this palaver is largely caused by the Irish, who, in order to avoid at all costs the need for border checks if we can't reach a deal, have insisted that the EU should stick to a red line which is likely to mean no deal and therefore trigger border checks in a few weeks' time.

    Probably not for long, though. For the Irish no deal really is better than a bad deal.

    Why? I'd have thought exactly the opposite.

    They’ll be stuck with a bad deal. A few weeks of No Deal will leave the UK in an even weaker position and so more likely to sign up to what the Irish actually want.

    That's a hell of a risky calculation if they are thinking that way.

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Surely the harm from no deal comes straight away though, and if the Irish push us down that route we will already have realised some of the downside. So less of a reason to compromise?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited January 2019

    Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?

    I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.
    The style suggests to me late Victorian rather than 1919. Who was the manufacturer? any identifying marks on the rear.

    There also appear to be fewer stars on the US flag (possibly just a painting issue) , and curious to use the Japanese Naval flag rather than the national one.

    Perhaps it is specific to one of the campaigns of the Boxer Rebellion, though that prostate eagle would be anodd symbol for China.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
  • Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?

    I'm wondering if the mysterious black/white/red on the left is a late replacement for Russia and is meant to be a second version of the French flag. Note that it doesn't appear around the rim, which all the other five main flags do.

    Is it the Dutch flag?

  • kle4 said:

    Oh well, good luck to the nation tomorrow. An almost certain record defeat for the government, and then a new pantomime opens up, one in which hopefully more will admit that they only want remain, or no deal, and they can stop cocking about.

    I̻ ̹̭̕h̘̫͓ḁ̱̦̬v͈͎e͈̱̯͚͎̱͕ ̘̗͔̺̼̯ͅb̳̖͎̙̩̜e̦͝e̜̠͕̠̫̤n̤͕̞̖̮̞ ̸c̦͓ͅͅr̫̼̲̜̭͙y̖̱̩̤̠s̲̺̣̗ͅt͈͉͎͔̙a҉̰̳͔͎͈̣͎l̢͍̟ ͙̫̺̗͎͡c͎̻̤̖͢ͅle͉ą̹͇͍̺ͅr͖ ̵͉̜̦͉t̷̤̩̫̱̫h̩a̦̭̳t ҉̣̞̜no͙͚͍̩ͅt̟͖̖̗ḫ̺͙̣͇͓͚i̛̳̘n̬̩g͖̤ ̡̪̖͎͙̬͖h̫͖̣̦̼̗ͅa͓̠̤ͅs̰ ͖̻̭̞c̭̞h̡a̖̻̻͖̭ͅͅn͉͍̻͞g҉e͎͕͚͕̥͇d̤
    ̣̬͖M͎̭͇̭̜̞y ̞͕͇̦d̡̤̻̱̩ȩ̹͈̣̟a̧͔͕̬̤̰̪l͙̬̟̗̜̀ ̨̩̩̗̘̥̜ì̖s͚̞̙̯ ҉̘t̮̞̜͓̜̩̠h͍̬e̤̻̖ b̷e̵͇̠s̷̩̹t̳̫̜ ̗̮̞̜̘͙̱͜d̳̤̺̱́e̢͚͖a̤͖̙̤̮͈͞l͡ ̨a̛̯n͙̥̹̮͍̰d͔ ̭̳th̪̝̖̼̺e̻ o̯̬̝n͔̝̣͎̠̮͠ḻ̺y͍̬̙̝̺̙̭ ̶̥d͏̙̭̗͚̥e͉͜al̛ ̰̬͉̳͖̥ͅa̹͔̹̱v̕a̟͉̰̦̣ì̮͕̲̬̠̖͈l͏̻̰a̢͎̥b͟ḽ̺̗̣͍͓e̝͉̳
    ̰̰͕̟̯̟I̙̞͓͙̭̥ ͍̟a͖̺̲͢m̳̻͎͘ ̰̫͚̤g̦͔͇̣̫̫̝ḙ͙̮͢ṭti̤̻͔̱n̰͡g̞̯̦̩͞ͅ ̴o̱̩̘̖̹̝n ̳̮̬̳̠w̢̪i̻͉̼̜͕͕͈t̶̹̙̱h͓͍̖̺͜ ̰͚͔͔̭t͚̲̳̱͚̩h̷̲e ͔̭͙ͅjo̮͚̩͖͚̖̫b̯͖̥͍̻ ̤͍̫̼̞͞o̢̺f̠̟ ̵̤̖̗de̯͇̦̤̝̫͔͢l͔͖̼̟̭̣͙i̭v̷͔͕̮̞͇ḛ͚͉̯̣r̪̘i̲̦̫̗͚͇̫n̸͚̯g̮ ͏̪͔B͕̟͉͖͉̗r͎̙̟̯̹̕e̤͟x̗̲̰̣i̺͙̪̱̘̝͝t̞̳̖͠

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Bored with Brexit? Explain this instead:

    https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706


    First World War commemorative plate?
    Boxer rebellion? There is a German flag too.
    And a Japanese one. Not sure what the bird is meant to represent.
    Japan were on the Allied side (Or Entente as they were known) in WW1. I have an account of Japanese destroyers hunting down and sinking Turkish submarines in the Mediterranean.
    During the Boxer Rebellion, the "allied" powers were Blighty, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, Russia, Austria and the USA. There is no Austria or Russia on the flags around the lion.

    And I'm trying to think what bird is supposed to represent the Chinese. I think it's the German Eagle

    And then you have all the flags around the rim of the plate, including Russia, Serbia and Belgium.
    I cannot identify the flag with the red square within a yellow flag on the rim.

    Trying to find it on this wiki list of timelines of national flags, no luck so far!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_national_flags
    It's a World War 1 commemorative plate.
    Romania is absent the Entente Powers, I wonder if it's a misrendering of the design?
    I still think the Black white red flag is a misrendering of Belgium
  • The other issue is the DUP may be acting rationally depending on what they really want. If they've realised how deeply in over their head they now are then the sequence May's Deal Dies > Soft/No Brexit and No Backstop may be their way out of the burning building.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
    That's an engineering problem. I acknowledge the size of the major task, but conceptually it's handleable: you just build stuff. It takes time and it costs money, but when it's done it's done.
  • Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    image

    Don't forget to leave a glass of warm water and a slice of stale bread out for Theresa May since it's Meaningful Vote Eve.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,680

    The other issue is the DUP may be acting rationally depending on what they really want. If they've realised how deeply in over their head they now are then the sequence May's Deal Dies > Soft/No Brexit and No Backstop may be their way out of the burning building.

    Corbyn offers soft BREXIT with no Backstop.
  • Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.

    Yep, it is. MPs are rabbits caught in headlights. The government is no better. No Deal is the default. And there is no plan to prevent it with anything close to majority support.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
    I don't know, but happy to accept your point
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Then there are the handful of Remain rebels who are acting rationally. PB's house bias towards complete nutters has ignored the pile up of serving Tory ministers who've said publiclly they'll quit if there is no deal. So if May's deal is now the *most* Brexity thing that can pass then killing it will lead to something less Brexity because no deal isn't happening.

    Yep, it is. MPs are rabbits caught in headlights. The government is no better. No Deal is the default. And there is no plan to prevent it with anything close to majority support.

    We don't know, for sure, but it certainly could happen. Many MP's are willing to risk getting what they most hate,

  • Then there are the ERGers who realise voting down May's deal will only lead to soggier Brexit but think that's a good thing for accelerationist purposes. They are acting rationally as well.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138
    edited January 2019

    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).

    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.

    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.

    [I'm not up on the lingo, but CET = Common European Tariff?] Tariffs are imposed by the country on imports coming in. So the CET would be imposed by Ireland on British imports coming into Ireland. They won't be imposed on Irish exports going into the UK. So if 80% of cheddar consumed in the UK is made in the Republic, then they won't be affected by the CET.

    As for the land bridge, are you seriously suggesting Irish lorries won't be allowed to use UK roads? How do you suggest stopping them? Gunfire? Legislation?

    As for container or RORO port capacity...it can be built.

    As for "high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop."...I must confess I don't understand this point. Are you suggesting Irish companies can no longer invoice UK firms?

    As for "The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.", I believe you. But IIUC the list is primarily engineering problems: they have to build new facilities in different places. Fine, they can do that. There's a difference between "difficult" and "too difficult", and things like building new facilities is the former. Unlike the ERG, I think the Irish are perfectly capable of building things.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    image

    Don't forget to leave a glass of warm water and a slice of stale bread out for Theresa May since it's Meaningful Vote Eve.

    And tomorrow night, a slice of humble pie......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......

    Not sure what would happen, it could be a stirring Euro-patriotic reverse Berlin airlift.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,735

    image

    Don't forget to leave a glass of warm water and a slice of stale bread out for Theresa May since it's Meaningful Vote Eve.

    I still believe in the Father of the House.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
    If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Floater said:

    So - a dysfunctional government and brexit chaos......

    Yet Labour are 6 points behind

    Says it all really.

    Or 3 points ahead!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    viewcode said:



    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......

    If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
    Britain and Ireland both claim wish to avoid a return to a hard border. Britain keeps refusing any attempts to guarantee it, whilst the EU shows solidarity with its member.

    I think we're the baddies here, not they.
  • justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    So - a dysfunctional government and brexit chaos......

    Yet Labour are 6 points behind

    Says it all really.

    Or 3 points ahead!

    What it is is volatile.

    Is there a volatility index to back?
  • Then there are the ERGers who know they are acting irrationally but just don't care as they don't want to have on record they voted for vassal state as they know how unpopular it will become once it's the Status Quo.

    Put simply if there were any demand for May's brand of weary, incrementalist realpolitik we'd have voted Remain in the first place or probably never even have held the referendum.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited January 2019

    Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

    God this is even more OTT....

    Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

    In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

    Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):

    Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

    How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?

    In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    justin124 said:

    Floater said:

    So - a dysfunctional government and brexit chaos......

    Yet Labour are 6 points behind

    Says it all really.

    Or 3 points ahead!
    Yes, remarkable really. YouGov are the only pollster in the past two months to have shown the Tories ahead of Labour.

    Guess YouGov could be right and all the others wrong, but seems very strange.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May 'will have to stand down' if she suffers heavy defeat in Brexit vote, Cabinet ministers suggest"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/14/theresa-may-will-asked-stand-suffers-heavy-defeat-brexit-vote/

    She won't.
    Something tells me she will need to be prised out
    In December.......
    Which year?

    innocent face

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    So, who said the shutdown would have an impact on the White House's catering?!

    image
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
    If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
    What the Irish want is no change to trade at all, nothing including any electronic form filling, this can only basically be achieved by the UK remaining in the EU and that is the Irish position.
  • We can be 100% sure that May's deal is not going to pass by March 29th.

    So the 21% betting odds that Brexit will happen by March 29th is saying that there is a 21% chance of a No Deal Brexit, since that is the default to May's deal

  • And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......

    Not sure what would happen, it could be a stirring Euro-patriotic reverse Berlin airlift.
    Massive international publicity and associated EU/US wide ' Buy Irish ' campaigns as well boycotts of UK agricultural products. Nothing would immeadiately unite transatlantic popular outrage than the Brits driving Irish farmers into penury. All campaign outlines will already be drafted and in draws somewhere.
  • MikeL said:

    Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

    God this is even more OTT....

    Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

    In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

    Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):

    Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

    How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?

    In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.
    Scotland's greatest sportsman?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    viewcode said:



    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......

    If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
    Britain and Ireland both claim wish to avoid a return to a hard border. Britain keeps refusing any attempts to guarantee it, whilst the EU shows solidarity with its member.

    I think we're the baddies here, not they.
    Well, in truth, we're not baddies - Brexiteers who either lied or were ignorant of the issue, or professed to believe in a soft Brexit that was the only really compatible solution in the short to medium term, were.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,138

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    No deal we have no choice day 1, it will be CET. Day two may be different. CET tariffs are circa 80% on beef, 45% on dairy, etc. The CEO of one of the major Irish food producers has said as soon as tariffs are confirmed, Irish Cheese production for UK markets moves instantly to the UK (80% of cheddar consumed in UK is made in Ireland).
    Then there is the land bridge, no deal the HGV;s can not use the roads so all Irish exports have to go via boat/plane. Ireland does not have the container or RORO port capacity to handle it. Then there is high tech no deal no data sharing agreement, so all those invoices from the tech companies in Ireland will stop.
    The list of how Ireland is affected by no deal is pretty extensive.
    And yet, Brussels will push them under the bus to keep their Deal pure......
    If I understand correctly, it is the Irish who want the backstop.
    What the Irish want is no change to trade at all, nothing including any electronic form filling, this can only basically be achieved by the UK remaining in the EU and that is the Irish position.
    Fair point
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    We can be 100% sure that May's deal is not going to pass by March 29th.

    So the 21% betting odds that Brexit will happen by March 29th is saying that there is a 21% chance of a No Deal Brexit, since that is the default to May's deal

    Let's not exaggerate, the odds of May's deal passing by then aren't great, but they're better than 0%.
  • viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    If the UK goes to WTO terms with the EU then there will be tariffs in both directions, no?
    Mostly 3% tarriffs I believe but a bigger problem is country of origin checks and other paperwork holding things up.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited January 2019
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Everyone is making risky calculations. But everyone knows there will be one country that is harmed more by a No Deal than Ireland.

    Actually I think Ireland is likely to be even worse hit than us, although it's a proposition which neither country should rationally test.
    I asked this question earlier, and I don't think anybody answered. Why is "no deal" bad for Ireland? We won't be imposing tariffs on their inports (unless I've missed something?). I assume they'll put off the hard border as long as they can but even if they do have to impose one, they get most of their UK imports from GB not NI, so the hit will be lessened. They can route traffic via the Cork ferries if they can't use GB as a land bridge due to Dover bottlenecking. So whilst I can see it as inconvenient and psychologically upsetting, the economic implications should be handleable. What have I missed?
    The lack of capacity and infrastructure to support the sudden cut over from Dun Laoghaire to Cork. It's a major, major task that will take months if not years
    That's an engineering problem. I acknowledge the size of the major task, but conceptually it's handleable: you just build stuff. It takes time and it costs money, but when it's done it's done.
    It's a very big engineering problem and if they'd started two years ago it might have been possible, but they didn't.

    A no deal Brexit will bring economic carnage to Ireland, which frankly I'm entirely ok with.

    Why Mrs May isn't holding a gun to the Irish head as a negotiating tactic escapes me; a "Give us what we need or the Paddies get it" Brexit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited January 2019

    MikeL said:

    Andy Murray: Why I say he's Britain's greatest sportsman

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-46838567

    God this is even more OTT....

    Yes he was briefly ranked #1, but nobody is going to look back and say he was better than the big three.

    In comparison, Faldo, twice as many majors, world #1 for 2 years straight. Redgrave greatest ever Olympian, etc etc etc. All those listed against him are indisputably the world best at their peak, Murray has always been behind the big three by varying amounts.

    Agreed. Murray isn't even one of the top 10 tennis players of the modern era - all the below would rank absolutely MILES ahead of him (in chronological order):

    Connors, Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Edberg, Sampras, Agassi, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic.

    How on earth can he be anywhere near Britain's greatest sportsman when he has so many people miles ahead of him?

    In contrast there are many British sportsman who have been absolutely leading figures in their sports.
    Scotland's greatest sportsman?
    Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish, Bill Shankly, Matt Busby, Chris Hoy, Jackie Stewart and a few others might have something to say about that...depending on if you class the likes of F1, snooker, etc as a sport.
This discussion has been closed.