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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of the big vote political punters now make it 79% that the UK won’t leave the EU by March 29th
Chart from Betdata.io showing trend on what is currently the busiest political market on the Betfair Exchange.
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Do we know roughly what time tomorrow the vote/result will be?
My thinking is that May is determined to see this through and that any alternative to that exit date requires forcing her from office, which probably requires a cross-party backbench rebellion to form a government of national unity. Which is unlikely.
That's astoundingly crap.
Like Wolves putting up a fight against City, come on for heaven's sake!
I wouldn’t have thought Corbyn had any interest in a second referendum unless it was going to give up victory in the general election he craves and which is really the only thing he cares about right now. If May loses by over 100 tomorrow he might get it.
And they need to go home and relax - not like they'll be thinking of other things.
Although in seriousness sometimes people act like any impact on family life for politicians is unfair, but that's the job to some degree. It's a public service, there will be costs when the nation calls. But rough on Siddiq putting off her C-section though
Remember this:
https://news.sky.com/story/tulip-siddiq-apologises-for-barb-at-pregnant-journalist-11149060
At the end of the interview, Ms Siddiq told pregnant producer Daisy Ayliffe: "Thanks for coming Daisy, hope you have a great birth, because child labour is hard! See you!"
The view emerging as favourite is that the deal eventually passes but we require an article 50 extension in order to implement it.
Hate to agree with the consensus but I too regard this as the most likely outcome.
Which, if Brexit is the monumental disaster they believe it to be, AND May won't budge an inch, they'll presumably be willing to do?
In the national interest, of course.
https://order-order.com/2019/01/09/welsh-labour-reinstate-suspended-anti-semitism-barely-month/
http://hurryupharry.org/2019/01/12/lewisham-labour-party-goes-full-on-conspiracy-theory/
Different people say different things on Brexit in that party nearly daily
Lets be honest Corbyn wants to leave and he wants power - everything else is noise.
22% by 29 March
22% Apr-Jun 2019
19% July - Dec 2019
9% in 2020 or 2021
24% later or never.
EDIT: It doesn't add to 100% because of the over round but it shows the general shape of it.
I'm sure voters will forgive them.....
Broadly agree. JC's desire to leave in circumstances where he is not to blame for leaving but stands a chance of shaping the post Brexit future in a socialist direction should not be underestimated. If JC were remotely serious about Remaining he would not have equivocated to this extent. TM wants to leave out of electoral principle, and JC wants to leave out of political conviction of long standing. The two leaders agree about far more than they are letting on.
no food, none at all?
Not even remotely plausible is it.
I think adding no deal as a third option loses more of those people than it gains rebels
How many times will they make us vote until we give the "right" answer?
Really sick of the losers second time around vote being called a "People's Vote".
A Referendum is unlikely, a Remain vote is less likely, but the political realities are unfortunately changing in a negative way even if they do happen.
They will both get leave in due course. Which is what they want. Anything after that is more guesswork than prediction. My guess is that JC won't get the chance to inaugurate his Venezuelan utopia, and that TM will see someone else lead on the final agreement. I'm afraid even guesswork fails after that.
Labour's membership as well as the PLP are overwhelmingly pro-EU: if he tried to face both down at the same time in pursuit of anything resembling a Hard Brexit then the Labour Party would implode.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
I said on here before the last referendum that if Leave lost I would not campaign for another vote - just sit back and enjoy the increasing chaos that would result from a reluctant Remain which the EU would obviously take as a sign of complete acquiescence to their plans. I would have loved the 'I told you so' opportunities and the increasing frustration and anger on both sides.
Now I have been shown that it is not necessary or desirable to accept democratic results. It is a lesson millions of people have learned and if we do end up staying in they are going to find all sorts of ways to make both the Remainers and the EU pay.
Hard Remainers might walk through the lobby with him on the second referendum but difficult to see them offering to prop him up even if they went to the LibDems where Cable certainly would.
When it comes to the crunch I can't see many if any leavers backing remain over the deal in a hypothetical referendum, Brexit is just Brexit to most people outside the Westminster bubble.
If there was a chance that MPs would, as a whole, suffer from remaining happening, then it would not be such a major option right now.
It's also possible that a National Government could be formed to similarly resolve Brexit, with the bulk of the PLP acting in concert with a larger portion of the Conservatives, bypassing both May and Corbyn - but then we're into genuine realignment territory and the logistics become more challenging.
More people feel passionately against the EU than are passionately for it. Remain failed to make a positive case for the EU in 2016, they've failed to make one since then (doubling down on project fear) and I doubt they would be able to put forward a positive case for the EU in 2019. Remain's strongest argument is that it is the least worst option. Hardly something that gets people marching down the polling stations.
Meanwhile leavers will be riled up and angry. Seeing the establishment attempting to overrule the 2016 result. Having the opportunity to stick two fingers up at them. They'll vote.
Moreover, I think there is a fundamental sense of fair play as part of our national character. Forcing people to vote twice just feels wrong. Undemocratic. The sort of thing tinpot dictatorships do, not something that's done over here. With so many people who voted remain the last time ambivalent about the EU at best, I think the leave vote is far more likely to turn out in force while remainers (soft remainers - not the "People's" vote mob) stay home.
Hard Brexiteers get to emigrate to Australia, everyone else gets wiped out by a plague. That sounds like a win for the Hard Brexiteers to me.
Big day tomorrow (my birthday, actually, something else happening but of no import).
For me, there are and only ever have been two credible positions for the UK via a vis the EU - all in or all out. Our half-hearted rebate-obsessed opt-out ridden mean-spirited excuse of a membership has been wholly unsatisfactory for both the UK AND the EU.
We can't go back as we were - we could go back as full members embracing the Euro, Schengen and the fast track to political integration but there's little or no constituency for that.
So we leave, wishing the EU well and wanting to be on the best possible terms with whatever the Union becomes. That Union will have two problems on its peripheries - the UK on one side and Russia on the other. Very different problems but neither easy to resolve let alone everything happening to the south.
Good night.
(PS you mean 'crash' not 'land'.)