79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You t
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
And therein lies Remain's problem.
More people feel passionately against the EU than are passionately for it. Remain failed to make a positive case for the EU in 2016, they've failed to make one since then (doubling down on project fear) and I doubt they would be able to put forward a positive case for the EU in 2019. Remain's strongest argument is that it is the least worst option. Hardly something that gets people marching down the polling stations.
Meanwhile leavers will be riled up and angry. Seeing the establishment attempting to overrule the 2016 result. Having the opportunity to stick two fingers up at them. They'll vote.
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote.
Lots of us don’t. We don’t see why the electorate should have to ratify a decision they made in 2016 because the losers can’t accept defeat gracefully, but that does not mean we wouldn’t have a very good chance of winning.
Of the non-political people I talk to, most of whom voted Remain, none think the result would be different. I only know people who have switched from Remain to Leave, but also have family who voted Leave who have now died.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You t
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
And therein lies Remain's problem.
More people feel passionately against the EU than are passionately for it. Remain failed to make a positive case for the EU in 2016, they've failed to make one since then (doubling down on project fear) and I doubt they would be able to put forward a positive case for the EU in 2019. Remain's strongest argument is that it is the least worst option. Hardly something that gets people marching down the polling stations.
Meanwhile leavers will be riled up and angry. Seeing the establishment attempting to overrule the 2016 result. Having the opportunity to stick two fingers up at them. They'll vote.
Moreoe.
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote.
I think many more people think remain would win than will admit it, but your response is also a load of guff, because it is perfectly possible for people to object to the dishonestname vote for reasons other than thinking it would lose, and rather focuses on the fact that you only want one because you think you will win.
Big day tomorrow (my birthday, actually, something else happening but of no import).
For me, there are and only ever have been two credible positions for the UK via a vis the EU - all in or all out. Our half-hearted rebate-obsessed opt-out ridden mean-spirited excuse of a membership has been wholly unsatisfactory for both the UK AND the EU.
We can't go back as we were - we could go back as full members embracing the Euro, Schengen and the fast track to political integration but there's little or no constituency for that.
So we leave, wishing the EU well and wanting to be on the best possible terms with whatever the Union becomes. That Union will have two problems on its peripheries - the UK on one side and Russia on the other. Very different problems but neither easy to resolve let alone everything happening to the south.
You've posted this before, but there is no evidence that it is necessarily true. A two-tier Europe, with an inner Eurozone and an outer ring is equally possible.
Big day tomorrow (my birthday, actually, something else happening but of no import).
For me, there are and only ever have been two credible positions for the UK via a vis the EU - all in or all out. Our half-hearted rebate-obsessed opt-out ridden mean-spirited excuse of a membership has been wholly unsatisfactory for both the UK AND the EU.
We can't go back as we were - we could go back as full members embracing the Euro, Schengen and the fast track to political integration but there's little or no constituency for that.
So we leave, wishing the EU well and wanting to be on the best possible terms with whatever the Union becomes. That Union will have two problems on its peripheries - the UK on one side and Russia on the other. Very different problems but neither easy to resolve let alone everything happening to the south.
All in or all out seems to be the only options left before us anyway. I don't think enough people want all out to see it through.
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
Sounds suspiciously like that wheeze from the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy...
Hard Brexiteers get to emigrate to Australia, everyone else gets wiped out by a plague. That sounds like a win for the Hard Brexiteers to me.
As I recall however the Gogalfrincham Ark B cohort was also wiped out by an especially cold winter.
No the B Ark contained the phone sanitisers and other useless people (Ad directors....) - Gogafrinchan was then killed off by a virulent disease contracted from a dirty telephone
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
What did Australia do to deserve that?
Like the original Golgafrinchams, the Hard Brexiteers never reach Australia. Nor do the rest of us leave the UK. That oversexed overhaired underbrained wazzock Johnson saying he knows more about building cars than the boss of Jaguar. It really is Trump level politics. "I think we should do this and everything will be fine" "no here are precise details as to why it won't based on years of professional experience" "WRONG. Sad. Fake News"
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You t
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
And therein lies Remain's problem.
More people feel passionately against the EU than are passionately for it. Remain failed to make a positive case for the EU in 2016, they've failed to make one since then (doubling down on project fear) and I doubt they would be able to put forward a positive case for the EU in 2019. Remain's strongest argument is that it is the least worst option. Hardly something that gets people marching down the polling stations.
Meanwhile leavers will be riled up and angry. Seeing the establishment attempting to overrule the 2016 result. Having the opportunity to stick two fingers up at them. They'll vote.
Moreover, I think there is a fundamental sense of fair play as part of our national character. Forcing people to vote twice just feels wrong. Undemocratic. The sort of thing tinpot dictatorships do, not something that's done over here. With so many people who voted remain the last time ambivalent about the EU at best, I think the leave vote is far more likely to turn out in force while remainers (soft remainers - not the "People's" vote mob) stay home.
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
More people feel passionately against the EU than are passionately for it.
This is no longer the case, and year by year their numbers get fewer.
And so you fall back on the 'my enemies will die off'. Such positivity.
In seriousness, the referendum and the ensuing chaos, with the tendency for people to double down on their decision, will help remain a little, given that their voters tend to be younger. I doubt the switch towards anti-europeanism as people age has continued at the same pace, not least because much of it derives from the world view people shaped during their late teenage, rather than from age per se. A three-year gap between successive votes will give Remain a margin of a few per cent.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
The people who think we have already left will presumably be happy to vote for the status quo.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
Nothing the Leave campaign did in terms of campaign finance matches Remain spending £9 million of taxpayers’ money on propaganda for their own side, but by all means keep ploughing this lonely furrow.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
Nothing the Leave campaign did in terms of campaign finance matches Remain spending £9 million of taxpayers’ money on propaganda for their own side, but by all means keep ploughing this lonely furrow.
Propaganda we would have been better without, given that it associated the government with one of the options. In any referendum there are always lots of people keen to give the ruling powers a kicking.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
Nothing the Leave campaign did in terms of campaign finance matches Remain spending £9 million of taxpayers’ money on propaganda for their own side, but by all means keep ploughing this lonely furrow.
Propaganda we would have been better without, given that it associated the government with one of the options. In any referendum there are always lots of people keen to give the ruling powers a kicking.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
Leave will not have the help of anti-establishment outriders this time. Leave will be the establishment.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
Yeah, it's not even about the EU and Brexit anymore really. It's about who has control. The Establishment or The People.
Big day tomorrow (my birthday, actually, something else happening but of no import).
For me, there are and only ever have been two credible positions for the UK via a vis the EU - all in or all out. Our half-hearted rebate-obsessed opt-out ridden mean-spirited excuse of a membership has been wholly unsatisfactory for both the UK AND the EU.
We can't go back as we were - we could go back as full members embracing the Euro, Schengen and the fast track to political integration but there's little or no constituency for that.
So we leave, wishing the EU well and wanting to be on the best possible terms with whatever the Union becomes. That Union will have two problems on its peripheries - the UK on one side and Russia on the other. Very different problems but neither easy to resolve let alone everything happening to the south.
You've posted this before, but there is no evidence that it is necessarily true. A two-tier Europe, with an inner Eurozone and an outer ring is equally possible.
The concern with this view is that, if the single currency is to survive in the long term, the Eurozone will probably have to have some form of common Government: a Treasury, shared borrowing, shared taxation and redistribution of money through fiscal transfers are arguably needed to address the gross imbalances between a collection of wildly different economies, all of which have been deprived of the corrective mechanism of variable exchange and interest rates.
So, the large majority of states using the Euro confederate, and increasingly caucus to take decisions. Once they reach a critical number, they can pass anything as a bloc by QMV without the non-Euro states getting a say.
At that point, if we won't go all in then we end up in a not dissimilar position to the EEA countries anyway. That's what this "outer ring" is eventually likely to resemble. That's fine if you like a Norwayesque compromise, but much of the pro-EU sales patter is about keeping our seat at the top table, which this doesn't achieve.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
I have to say that I've never held Dominic Cummings in high regard. Generally thinking him at best a madman and at worst a sociopath. This is well worth watching though - remainers would be fools not to watch. They might even like the bit at the end when he talks about Tory MPs and the NHS. Is he subtly self aggrandising? Maybe. But it's revelatory how he basically claims to got have a bunch of physics nerds to work out which voters to target and tried to keep most Brexit MPs as far away from the action as possible. The bit at the end regarding the Tories and the NHS was well worth waiting for!
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
I think some people would see the analogy with VAR rather differently. The ball is clearly over the line but the ref doesn't want to give the goal so he keeps on at his assistant to check again.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign. Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
Yeah, it's not even about the EU and Brexit anymore really. It's about who has control. The Establishment or The People.
And there`s the rub... It is the Establishment (ie top Tory politicians) who have taken over the management of the People side..... They get everywhere. You can vote against them, but then you are voting for them - a different set of them, of course.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
Maybe they took the doom and gloom warnings a bit too seriously. But I doubt they are enjoying all the talk of no food, no medicine and motorways full of parked up lorries, right now, either.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Problem with a second referendum is what is the question. The Leave vote has been remarkably resilient in the polls given 2 years on unrelenting pressure to change with no counter argument and a second referendum when the first hasn’t been honoured would be scandal.
Doesn't matter. If there is a second referendum the only question that matters will be:
How many times will they make us vote until we give the "right" answer?
That’s fair given how often the EU have used that tactic in the past. I am sure there are plenty of Remainers in the “as often as it takes” frame of mind
Wasn't aware that the EU could instigate referendums in member states.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
Dream on. They won’t be voting for your side.
They won't be voting at all.
I think that 's what 2nd referendum supporters are counting on, but they could well be wrong. It depends whether the Deal is uppermost in voters ' minds or whether Brexit is.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
i don't know anyone who thinks a #peoplesvote would be a pushover for Remain.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote."
(1) We've had a people's vote already, unless you're under the impression, it was restricted to animals. Leave won, remember. (2) We had no fear of a vote, but how many times do Leave have to win to win? The powers that be said once is enough. Were they lying? If so, what's the point of voting again? (3) Following on from (2), how many times do Remain have to win a referendum for it to count? I suspect once will be enough? (4) You do realise that re-running referenda when the losers don't like the answer is a recipe for continual referenda asking the same question. If it isn't, why does one side get preferential treatment. (5) Why should we vote again? We gave you our answer.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
Dream on. They won’t be voting for your side.
They won't be voting at all.
I think that 's what 2nd referendum supporters are counting on, but they could well be wrong. It depends whether the Deal is uppermost in voters ' minds or whether Brexit is.
Well kudos to these voters if they can indeed work out what their political Brexiter champions cannot, and put the survival of Brexit itself ahead of obsession with the small print of the deal.
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
What did Australia do to deserve that?
Like the original Golgafrinchams, the Hard Brexiteers never reach Australia. Nor do the rest of us leave the UK. That oversexed overhaired underbrained wazzock Johnson saying he knows more about building cars than the boss of Jaguar. It really is Trump level politics. "I think we should do this and everything will be fine" "no here are precise details as to why it won't based on years of professional experience" "WRONG. Sad. Fake News"
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
Said “EU monies” being a percentage of the money the U.K. sends to them.
So you think the ERG headbangers will be enthusiastically campaigning for the deal?
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID. A campaign will not change much either way.
Take a look at the Telegraph or Mail comment sections and you'll see armies of vociferous Brexiteers who now regard actually delivering Brexit as a Remainer betrayal.
Dream on. They won’t be voting for your side.
They won't be voting at all.
I think that 's what 2nd referendum supporters are counting on, but they could well be wrong. It depends whether the Deal is uppermost in voters ' minds or whether Brexit is.
Brexit in the form of a gesture of defiance simply won't exist in the same way as it did in 2016. The revolutionary moment has passed and cannot be recaptured because the revolution has failed.
Big day tomorrow (my birthday, actually, something else happening but of no import).
For me, there are and only ever have been two credible positions for the UK via a vis the EU - all in or all out. Our half-hearted rebate-obsessed opt-out ridden mean-spirited excuse of a membership has been wholly unsatisfactory for both the UK AND the EU.
We can't go back as we were - we could go back as full members embracing the Euro, Schengen and the fast track to political integration but there's little or no constituency for that.
So we leave, wishing the EU well and wanting to be on the best possible terms with whatever the Union becomes. That Union will have two problems on its peripheries - the UK on one side and Russia on the other. Very different problems but neither easy to resolve let alone everything happening to the south.
You've posted this before, but there is no evidence that it is necessarily true. A two-tier Europe, with an inner Eurozone and an outer ring is equally possible.
The concern with this view is that, if the single currency is to survive in the long term, the Eurozone will probably have to have some form of common Government: a Treasury, shared borrowing, shared taxation and redistribution of money through fiscal transfers are arguably needed to address the gross imbalances between a collection of wildly different economies, all of which have been deprived of the corrective mechanism of variable exchange and interest rates.
So, the large majority of states using the Euro confederate, and increasingly caucus to take decisions. Once they reach a critical number, they can pass anything as a bloc by QMV without the non-Euro states getting a say.
At that point, if we won't go all in then we end up in a not dissimilar position to the EEA countries anyway. That's what this "outer ring" is eventually likely to resemble. That's fine if you like a Norwayesque compromise, but much of the pro-EU sales patter is about keeping our seat at the top table, which this doesn't achieve.
Well, if/when that happens deal with it then? Presumably as part of the required Treaty change.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
So when the libdems behave unethically but get off on a technicality that’s ok?
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
What did Australia do to deserve that?
Like the original Golgafrinchams, the Hard Brexiteers never reach Australia. Nor do the rest of us leave the UK. That oversexed overhaired underbrained wazzock Johnson saying he knows more about building cars than the boss of Jaguar. It really is Trump level politics. "I think we should do this and everything will be fine" "no here are precise details as to why it won't based on years of professional experience" "WRONG. Sad. Fake News"
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
Said “EU monies” being a percentage of the money the U.K. sends to them.
I don’t think it matters. Identification with Leave or Remain is already stronger than party ID.
That's precisely the point though. The ERG (and hardcore remainers) are going against the bulk of their parliamentary party at least who, however enthusiastically, are backing the deal. Many members support them. And so will many voters. And so the question of if the ERG would campaign for the deal in a deal/remain referendum is useful as a proxy. Not a direct one, granted. But just as the ERG will not back a deal they do not accept, so too will leavers in the public. Whether that translates to a transfer vote to remain, or people staying at home, who can say, but it will very likely hit leave's support.
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote."
(1) We've had a people's vote already, unless you're under the impression, it was restricted to animals. Leave won, remember. (2) We had no fear of a vote, but how many times do Leave have to win to win? The powers that be said once is enough. Were they lying? If so, what's the point of voting again? (3) Following on from (2), how many times do Remain have to win a referendum for it to count? I suspect once will be enough? (4) You do realise that re-running referenda when the losers don't like the answer is a recipe for continual referenda asking the same question. If it isn't, why does one side get preferential treatment. (5) Why should we vote again? We gave you our answer.
1. Not on the deal 2. To force through such a major traumatic change, a second confirmatory vote is entirely reasonable 3. Other countries recognise that big shifts in the status quo need more than a one-off 50%+1 4. See 3. above 5. See 1. above
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
i don't know anyone who thinks a #peoplesvote would be a pushover for Remain.
I do. Well, the deal has a small chance, but remain starts with big advantages.
Matches my memory. I was just too young to vote, but it was clear all the older people I knew were voting in. The untrendy gits who were in the war. Us cool youngsters were for getting out. Mainly because the oldies were in.
"Lots of us don’t. We don’t see why the electorate should have to ratify a decision they made in 2016 because the losers can’t accept defeat gracefully, but that does not mean we wouldn’t have a very good chance of winning.
Of the non-political people I talk to, most of whom voted Remain, none think the result would be different. I only know people who have switched from Remain to Leave, but also have family who voted Leave who have now died".
How exactly do leavers accept defeat gracefully? I would accept May's deal as a compromise even though I think it's not as good as remaining. However the ultras won't accept the form of leave that the government has negotiated and are pushing us into a form of Brexit that one of your leavers (Fox) today described as economic suicide.
The hardliners are overplaying their hand and sowing the seed of Brexit's demise.
Another thing on Cummings - I wonder if the 2015 election may have fooled Cameron and Osborne. They won after 5 years of austerity never mind that it was at the expense of their Lib Dems partners and with just 38% of the vote. Britain was clearly a country of the liberal right. It seems Clegg and Coetzee may have thought the same thing to. It's just unfortunately for them the public decided to reward the Tories for the coalition's record and they were ignored. Why not draft Stuart Rose to front the Remain campaign? The sort of outward looking modern businessman British people trust?
How exactly do leavers accept defeat gracefully? I would accept May's deal as a compromise even though I think it's not as good as remaining. However the ultras won't accept the form of leave that the government has negotiated and are pushing us into a form of Brexit that one of your leavers (Fox) today described as economic suicide.
The hardliners are overplaying their hand and sowing the seed of Brexit's demise.
I think those seeds have spouted and are ready for harvesting already.
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
Yes, that seems to be the obvious way forward, though I think the result would be a coin toss.
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
I would be content for that to happen but who knows ?
The concern with this view is that, if the single currency is to survive in the long term, the Eurozone will probably have to have some form of common Government: a Treasury, shared borrowing, shared taxation and redistribution of money through fiscal transfers are arguably needed to address the gross imbalances between a collection of wildly different economies, all of which have been deprived of the corrective mechanism of variable exchange and interest rates.
So, the large majority of states using the Euro confederate, and increasingly caucus to take decisions. Once they reach a critical number, they can pass anything as a bloc by QMV without the non-Euro states getting a say.
At that point, if we won't go all in then we end up in a not dissimilar position to the EEA countries anyway. That's what this "outer ring" is eventually likely to resemble. That's fine if you like a Norwayesque compromise, but much of the pro-EU sales patter is about keeping our seat at the top table, which this doesn't achieve.
Well, if/when that happens deal with it then? Presumably as part of the required Treaty change.
Such a situation is likely to come about through a separate arrangement concluded between the Eurozone states. Within the broader EU context, nothing can be done to prevent the Eurozone members from co-operating closely with each other on all or most issues, if they feel they need to do so to make the single currency work.
We only get a say if a new treaty applicable to the whole EU needs to be concluded, or an existing such treaty amended. This might well be unnecessary.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
So when the libdems behave unethically but get off on a technicality that’s ok?
As I understand it remain spending has a question mark over it too.... yet the electoral commission seems unduly relaxed about much the same activity that leave undertook.
Labour to her bones, and yet you could never tell as speaker. We could do with returning to that.
A good speaker (and Speaker, so I hear), but I find the argument that no one dreamed we'd be facing a worst case scenario a very weak one, since whatever everyone intended or promised, all MPs knew that if you don't agree a deal you get no deal, and they still triggered it. So they did know the risk of a worst case scenario, they just miscalculated it, as indeed did I. Simply saying that despite previous commitments the costs of no deal are too high, now the risk has been reassessed, is a sufficient argument in itself I think, without in essence saying the people and the MPs were too stupid to notice the risks at all.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Problem with a second referendum is what is the question. The Leave vote has been remarkably resilient in the polls given 2 years on unrelenting pressure to change with no counter argument and a second referendum when the first hasn’t been honoured would be scandal.
Doesn't matter. If there is a second referendum the only question that matters will be:
How many times will they make us vote until we give the "right" answer?
That’s fair given how often the EU have used that tactic in the past. I am sure there are plenty of Remainers in the “as often as it takes” frame of mind
Wasn't aware that the EU could instigate referendums in member states.
The EU never interfere in the politics of nation states..... oh wait.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that haveose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Why would remain see a significant decrease? Few have switched as we continually hear, and this is the last best hope they have.
Because there are many who voted remain reluctantly last time who are turned off by being asked to vote again. There was really very little great enthusiasm for the EU in the last vote. That will be even less if it happens again.
There were a lot of Tories who voted remain last time out as a result of loyalty to Cameron and Osborne along with the Tory establishment. Remainers are a handful of eccentrics in the Tory party these days and Mays successor will be campaigning for the revised deal. I think remainers are wildly over confident about the result.
i don't know anyone who thinks a #peoplesvote would be a pushover for Remain.
I do. Well, the deal has a small chance, but remain starts with big advantages.
I think Remain's biggest advantage would be a widespread belief that Parliament will never honour a result that rejects EU membership. So why bother?
But I don't think it would be a foregone conclusion.
When it comes to discussing who is fired up, just wait until you tell 17.4 million people they have to vote again for their victory to mean something. That’s not to mention the people who think we have already left.
What a pity that the Leave campaigns ar still under criminal investigations for breaching the spending rules. This is the VAR of politics
I think some people would see the analogy with VAR rather differently. The ball is clearly over the line but the ref doesn't want to give the goal so he keeps on at his assistant to check again.
And there was a disputed goal at both ends - only one keeps getting reviewed for some reason
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
Yes, that seems to be the obvious way forward, though I think the result would be a coin toss.
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
All fine slogans...except so many leave supporters have made clear they despise the deal. I'm to believe, when there's been so little switching from remain to leave or leave to remain, that leave will be more motivated in a scenario which involves a deal so many despise?
It would depend whether the argument that prevailed was vote down this wicked deal, or what part of leave don't they understand?
It doesn't matter which prevails, it matters are there enough of the former to see remain over the line? Remain is fired up. Leave is not. All it will take is a few percent less for leave.
Looking at Yougov's numbers, it does matter which argument prevails. The Deal is not popular, but nor is Remain,
In the deal v Remain vote, how will those leavers who believe it the most actually campaign? Throwing themselves behind the deal might be a tad difficult given the smoke from all the burning bridges.
Bless. You think the contents of the deal will actually matter during a referendum campaign.
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
Leave will not have the help of anti-establishment outriders this time. Leave will be the establishment.
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
Yes, that seems to be the obvious way forward, though I think the result would be a coin toss.
It would put the ERG in a deliciously difficult position. It also keeps May in post.
Many things are not in Merkel's gift. The idea concessions would have to wait is bloody daft, since if something politically has its guts ripped out you cannot just stuff them back in and pretend no one noticed. No, you have to put some armour on or avoid the gutting in the first place. If you cannot, you fail.
The suggestion Varadkar and the EU will finally concede to an end date to the backstop once the deal fails is as close to barmy as it gets. What, they didn't take on board May's banging on to them for months on end that she needed that concession to even have a hope?
Matches my memory. I was just too young to vote, but it was clear all the older people I knew were voting in. The untrendy gits who were in the war. Us cool youngsters were for getting out. Mainly because the oldies were in.
The interesting thing was how Remain won the campaign so convincingly. The early polling had indicated Leave.
Saunders book on the subject is quite fascinating:
This is getting silly. A second referendum for the losers' options without a Leave option?
A second referendum with a leave with the negotiated deal vs leave with no-deal makes some sort of sense.
Mr B2,
"To force through such a major traumatic change, a second confirmatory vote is entirely reasonable."
Joining was not a major traumatic change then? A second vote needed to confirm? News to me and nearly everyone else. I think that's called changing the rules after the result is known. Do you honestly believe any sentient being thinks that's logical?
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Lol. When was the last time that the turnout in any vote actually mattered, in terms of the result? You need to take a step back and look at some of the nonsense you post.
We will make it matter. Like I said, you might win that particular battle but you will lose the war. Why? Because will never give up. You Remoaners will have taught us a very important lesson over the past two years. Democracy no longer matters. What matters is keeping the pressure on and taking every opportunity to undermine and destroy your enemies. In the end you will wish you had lost
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
What did Australia do to deserve that?
Like the original Golgafrinchams, the Hard Brexiteers never reach Australia. Nor do the rest of us leave the UK. That oversexed overhaired underbrained wazzock Johnson saying he knows more about building cars than the boss of Jaguar. It really is Trump level politics. "I think we should do this and everything will be fine" "no here are precise details as to why it won't based on years of professional experience" "WRONG. Sad. Fake News"
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
Said “EU monies” being a percentage of the money the U.K. sends to them.
Meanwhile, on Mumsnet, a poster asks when people think that the airports will get busy in March with people deciding they're best off out of the country temporarily in case there is disruption on Brexit day and the immediate aftermath.
This is getting silly. A second referendum for the losers' options without a Leave option?
A second referendum with a leave with the negotiated deal vs leave with no-deal makes some sort of sense.
Mr B2,
"To force through such a major traumatic change, a second confirmatory vote is entirely reasonable."
Joining was not a major traumatic change then? A second vote needed to confirm? News to me and nearly everyone else. I think that's called changing the rules after the result is known. Do you honestly believe any sentient being thinks that's logical?
To think we could have done this one month ago. May did us such a disservice by delaying.
No question. Given the Sun is basically suggesting once the deal is voted down perhaps more concessions might come (not that I believe that), it only emphasises that the only thing it seemed designed to accomplish was to prevent a leadership challenge which they seemed to think would come once the MV was lost. And it provoked it anyway. May lost a lot of the respect she still retained that day.
Meanwhile, on Mumsnet, a poster asks when people think that the airports will get busy in March with people deciding they're best off out of the country temporarily in case there is disruption on Brexit day and the immediate aftermath.
This would be a bit like Dunkirk in reverse then?
Would you like to buy a BYOB* ticket on Seabourne Ferries?
Many things are not in Merkel's gift. The idea concessions would have to wait is bloody daft, since if something politically has its guts ripped out you cannot just stuff them back in and pretend no one noticed. No, you have to put some armour on or avoid the gutting in the first place. If you cannot, you fail.
The suggestion Varadkar and the EU will finally concede to an end date to the backstop once the deal fails is as close to barmy as it gets. What, they didn't take on board May's banging on to them for months on end that she needed that concession to even have a hope?
79% chance that we won’t leave the EU at all I would have thought.
Not quite I think. I'm very confident, unfortunately, that Remain would win any referendum but it is at least possible, say, deal would win, so while referendum or other options mean a delay past March is very likely, it is not quite as likely that we do not leave at all.
Despite all the superficially persuasive slogans that have been offered for the Leave (the sequel) campaign, Remain has the absolute killer line - You can have years and years more of all this arguing and chaos of Brexit, or it can all simply go away: you choose.
It would not go away.
Not wholly,no, but it is a superficially good line.
The people against the powerful.
You told them once. Tell them again.
They weren't listening then. They're still not listening now.
Remind them who they work for.
They have nothing but contempt for you. This is your chance to tell them what you think of them.
And so on. And so forth. Forever.
Might help get out the Leave vote, but will convert no one and will fail unless it turns out nearly all the survivors of the 17.4 million voters. I cannot see it myself.
That assumes that Remain would get anywhere near the support they got last time. They would not. Both sides would see a significant decrease in their turnout - which in itself would hugely undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
Lol. When was the last time that the turnout in any vote actually mattered, in terms of the result? You need to take a step back and look at some of the nonsense you post.
We will make it matter. Like I said, you might win that particular battle but you will lose the war. Why? Because will never give up. You Remoaners will have taught us a very important lesson over the past two years. Democracy no longer matters. What matters is keeping the pressure on and taking every opportunity to undermine and destroy your enemies. In the end you will wish you had lost
Unfortunately, that is the lesson to be learned, and that is why it's so dangerous. 'All that matters is winning' might make the winner feel good, but pretending it's a form of democracy is embarrassing.
Come clean, some of the losers can't take it, and to them, that's all that matters.
I have read about the best solution to the problem. A terrible disaster is going to befall the United Kingdom and we all need to leave for Australia. Two very large ark ships are to be built (in Poland) to accommodate us on the voyage, but as we all hate each other so much people need to be split up. Supporters of Hard Brexit please board Ark B (for Brexit). Everyone else will follow on ark A
What did Australia do to deserve that?
Like the original Golgafrinchams, the Hard Brexiteers never reach Australia. Nor do the rest of us leave the UK. That oversexed overhaired underbrained wazzock Johnson saying he knows more about building cars than the boss of Jaguar. It really is Trump level politics. "I think we should do this and everything will be fine" "no here are precise details as to why it won't based on years of professional experience" "WRONG. Sad. Fake News"
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
Because these erses like JLR boss have lied and filled their own pockets for years and years, so now when they cry wolf most people just assume they are just lying again and getting an extra pocket in their suits.
Many things are not in Merkel's gift. The idea concessions would have to wait is bloody daft, since if something politically has its guts ripped out you cannot just stuff them back in and pretend no one noticed. No, you have to put some armour on or avoid the gutting in the first place. If you cannot, you fail.
The suggestion Varadkar and the EU will finally concede to an end date to the backstop once the deal fails is as close to barmy as it gets. What, they didn't take on board May's banging on to them for months on end that she needed that concession to even have a hope?
And yet, who knows
The best hope for a deal is basically an unexplainable mass conversion from doubting MPs, despite the largest group of them knowing the power exists to remain, and the hail mary of 'anything is possible, who knows what might happen'.
I really would like to see a path to some kind of deal, I truly would (the best one is a referendum), but given the available options I don't see how the PM, fresh of the back of a 150-200 defeat, will be particularly persuasive.
What's she going to do? Thank the Commons for humiliating her as now it means the EU will wake up? She might as well whip her own party to vote against then.
To think we could have done this one month ago. May did us such a disservice by delaying.
No question. Given the Sun is basically suggesting once the deal is voted down perhaps more concessions might come (not that I believe that), it only emphasises that the only thing it seemed designed to accomplish was to prevent a leadership challenge which they seemed to think would come once the MV was lost. And it provoked it anyway. May lost a lot of the respect she still retained that day.
Indications are she has not lost respect from the public.
Indeed, I believe she is one of the reasons the party has held up in the polling
Comments
Of the non-political people I talk to, most of whom voted Remain, none think the result would be different. I only know people who have switched from Remain to Leave, but also have family who voted Leave who have now died.
Why do we need to listen to the boss of JLR giving 20 years of expert advice about Brexit and car making? What does he know that Brian the angry Brexiteer backed by 20 years of reading the Daily Mail cant tell us better? What next? Cornwall who rely on EU monies voting to leave deciding to appoint a Cornish ambassador to the EU to go begging for the continuation of the monies Cornish voters insisted didn't exist?
I see Betty Boothroyd has lost none of her wit.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1084924305887191040
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/07/31/the-referendums-of-1975-and-2016-illustrate-the-continuity-and-change-in-british-euroscepticism/
Leave will run on people vs politicians. That’s all they need to do. It may not be enough, but anything else would be a distraction.
So, the large majority of states using the Euro confederate, and increasingly caucus to take decisions. Once they reach a critical number, they can pass anything as a bloc by QMV without the non-Euro states getting a say.
At that point, if we won't go all in then we end up in a not dissimilar position to the EEA countries anyway. That's what this "outer ring" is eventually likely to resemble. That's fine if you like a Norwayesque compromise, but much of the pro-EU sales patter is about keeping our seat at the top table, which this doesn't achieve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDbRxH9Kiy4
Like I have said, if Leavers really believed this guff, they would have no fear of a #Peoplesvote."
(1) We've had a people's vote already, unless you're under the impression, it was restricted to animals. Leave won, remember.
(2) We had no fear of a vote, but how many times do Leave have to win to win? The powers that be said once is enough. Were they lying? If so, what's the point of voting again?
(3) Following on from (2), how many times do Remain have to win a referendum for it to count? I suspect once will be enough?
(4) You do realise that re-running referenda when the losers don't like the answer is a recipe for continual referenda asking the same question. If it isn't, why does one side get preferential treatment.
(5) Why should we vote again? We gave you our answer.
2. To force through such a major traumatic change, a second confirmatory vote is entirely reasonable
3. Other countries recognise that big shifts in the status quo need more than a one-off 50%+1
4. See 3. above
5. See 1. above
The most practical way to avoid No Deal is for May to re-present it as soon as possible with the rider that it is subject to approval in a 2nd Ref: 'Leave with the Deal versus Remain'.
The HoC would pass that. The EU would extend A50 to await the outcome.
As a Remainer, I suspect there's a good chance the the Deal will win (sadly). So be it.
Royalblue said
"Lots of us don’t. We don’t see why the electorate should have to ratify a decision they made in 2016 because the losers can’t accept defeat gracefully, but that does not mean we wouldn’t have a very good chance of winning.
Of the non-political people I talk to, most of whom voted Remain, none think the result would be different. I only know people who have switched from Remain to Leave, but also have family who voted Leave who have now died".
How exactly do leavers accept defeat gracefully? I would accept May's deal as a compromise even though I think it's not as good as remaining. However the ultras won't accept the form of leave that the government has negotiated and are pushing us into a form of Brexit that one of your leavers (Fox) today described as economic suicide.
The hardliners are overplaying their hand and sowing the seed of Brexit's demise.
That's going to be an effective people vs politicians situation?
Yet Labour are 6 points behind
Says it all really.
Labour to her bones, and yet you could never tell as speaker. We could do with returning to that.
We only get a say if a new treaty applicable to the whole EU needs to be concluded, or an existing such treaty amended. This might well be unnecessary.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1084935172322217985
But I don't think it would be a foregone conclusion.
Both of which she may see as positive.
The suggestion Varadkar and the EU will finally concede to an end date to the backstop once the deal fails is as close to barmy as it gets. What, they didn't take on board May's banging on to them for months on end that she needed that concession to even have a hope?
https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1084937174003400706
Saunders book on the subject is quite fascinating:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Yes-Europe-Referendum-Seventies-Britain/dp/1108425356
A second referendum with a leave with the negotiated deal vs leave with no-deal makes some sort of sense.
Mr B2,
"To force through such a major traumatic change, a second confirmatory vote is entirely reasonable."
Joining was not a major traumatic change then? A second vote needed to confirm? News to me and nearly everyone else. I think that's called changing the rules after the result is known. Do you honestly believe any sentient being thinks that's logical?
This would be a bit like Dunkirk in reverse then?
First World War commemorative plate?
"Democracy no longer matters."
Unfortunately, that is the lesson to be learned, and that is why it's so dangerous. 'All that matters is winning' might make the winner feel good, but pretending it's a form of democracy is embarrassing.
Come clean, some of the losers can't take it, and to them, that's all that matters.
'Night all!
I really would like to see a path to some kind of deal, I truly would (the best one is a referendum), but given the available options I don't see how the PM, fresh of the back of a 150-200 defeat, will be particularly persuasive.
What's she going to do? Thank the Commons for humiliating her as now it means the EU will wake up? She might as well whip her own party to vote against then.
Indeed, I believe she is one of the reasons the party has held up in the polling
"I believe I am a sentient being."
I used to think you were too. It just shows how wrong we both were.