politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

Betdata.io

Read the full story here

Gadfly

First!

RobD

Second.

CarlottaVance

Third! Like Boris in the MP’s ballot....

CarlottaVance

She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

CarlottaVance

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

AlastairMeeks

CarlottaVance said:

She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

She offers nothing for everyone.

Foxy

Having survived the 1922 committee confidence vote, any contest is almost certainly a year away, and too much can change to have me commit any more of my book to the Tory leadership market. Some political reputations will be trashed this year.

DavidL

It really is wide open isn't it? So much will depend on the nature and timing of May's going.

If she and Philip walk off into the hills having delivered a workable Brexit to a weary and possibly not overly grateful nation we are looking at a continuity candidate, probably Javid, possibly Hunt.

If she fails to deliver Brexit thanks to a recalcitrant House of Commons and there is an extension then it will be someone with much stronger leaver credentials than she ever had, probably Raab (although quite why remains a mystery to me) possibly Boris (hmm, maybe that's why).

If we were to have a second referendum and a change of result then, well, will there be a Tory party to lead? More likely, how many Tory parties would there be and which bit would count? Possibly Rudd.

If she continues to show limpet qualities into the 2020s then we are likely to be talking a new cast altogether. It's not a market that I find overly attractive at the moment.

DavidL

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

OldKingCole

Foxy said:

Having survived the 1922 committee confidence vote, any contest is almost certainly a year away, and too much can change to have me commit any more of my book to the Tory leadership market. Some political reputations will be trashed this year.

I think that's right. There seems no physical health reason why she should have to go, so the only reason for her leaving the post of Leader is if she herself resigns. She'll press (?stagger) on through what seems likely to be the car-crash of March and April and having survived that, should perhaps be in a more manageable situation.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Recidivist

The question is just how desperate to the Tories are likely to get. Their poll ratings aren't too bad at the moment. If that changes the next leader will be someone none of us have heard of.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.

OldKingCole

Match in Christchurch is turning out similar. Massive NZ score in their second innings, leaving SL to score 660 in their second. At stumps 24-2!

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.

The Aussies batted on it.

Then Pujara played a duff shot.

Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.

SquareRoot

I won't vote for a Tory Party if Boris is leader. He is a buffoon who cant keep his flies zipped

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

Match in Christchurch is turning out similar. Massive NZ score in their second innings, leaving SL to score 660 in their second. At stumps 24-2!

There are three tests going on and they all seem to be bubbling away quite nicely. Pakistan will have to bowl sensationally to win, the other two have to bat sensationally to secure draws.

ydoethur

This is an important story:

More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

This is an important story:

More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

There's a hole outside my house where this happens regularly. I think the pothole has been 'repaired' three times in the past four years. There's another patch further down the road where repairs break up within a very few weeks.

Edited for silly mistake!

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

This is an important story:

More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

On our lanes, an important factor is the size of the tractors the farmers are using. They are now so wide they are damaging the base of the Devon banks. They are so heavy that when we had the hot summer weather, their tyres were ripping up chunks off the tarmac. We then had a very hard winter that got underneath that trashed top layer. They are causing massive damage.

OldKingCole

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

Jonathan

Potholes? Is this the Daily Mail?

Morris_Dancer

Guten Morgen, meine Freunde.

I think Raab, Gove, Rudd, and Mogg have little to no chance. Boris is overstated (as ever) and would be a woeful leader.

Javid, Hunt, or Mordaunt seem likeliest to me.

On potholes: agree entirely. The repairs tend to be sticking plasters with little adhesive.

AmpfieldAndy

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

MaxPB

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

The only way she gets replaced is if she resigns, that doesn't seem very likely.

RobD

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

When the only options are Raab or Mordaunt, you know something as gone wrong.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.

A bit too junior for my liking (I am a Tory, after all). But maybe a generation has to be skipped.

Recidivist

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.

kle4

MaxPB said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

The only way she gets replaced is if she resigns, that doesn't seem very likely.

She'll resign. At present there is still the possibility, though slight, of getting something done on brexit. When her deal fails and no deal does not spook the commons because it wants to remain instead, May will soon find herself unable to do anything and will go.

RobD

Recidivist said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.

I soo like Rudd, but maybe her seat is too marginal.

ydoethur

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

This is an important story:

More than half a million potholes reported last year - RAC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694506

It's not just the number of them, it's the abysmal standard of the repairs. Last week three potholes were filled outside my front door. This week, the holes have all reappeared. Although they used tarmac, not just gravel, no seal was put round it so the first rainstorm saw the whole thing disintegrate again.

On our lanes, an important factor is the size of the tractors the farmers are using. They are now so wide they are damaging the base of the Devon banks. They are so heavy that when we had the hot summer weather, their tyres were ripping up chunks off the tarmac. We then had a very hard winter that got underneath that trashed top layer. They are causing massive damage.

Is it possible to buy smaller tractors now, though?

Nigelb

h

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.

The Aussies batted on it.

Then Pujara played a duff shot.

Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.

Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mordaunt would make a superb PM.

Of no discernible talents - other than persuading you to put money on her ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.

malcolmg

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

Nigelb

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

malcolmg

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

Only so much you can say about a bunch of Donkeys David

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

h

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.

The Aussies batted on it.

Then Pujara played a duff shot.

Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.

Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

It certainly threw up a surprise.

Yes, the commentary on Bumrah does suggest he bowled exceptionally well (an Indian quick bowling well? Are we facing the end times)? But let's face it, without Steve Smith this Aussie batting lineup wouldn't frighten Yorkshire 2nd XI.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.

Indeed not but there still needs to be a reason for them to win over fellow Mps. Is she a stop Boris candidate, an anti remain candidate, is she super competent or able to be publicly popular? What is her pitch to Mps and does she live up to that pitch?

I confess other than her being attractive I don't recall much of her.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

Ronnie Barker joke:

What's the difference between a donkey and an ass?

One's a Trades Unionist, the other's a member of the cabinet.

malcolmg

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

What could possibly lead you to believe Raab or Mordaunt could run a bath never mind a country.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time and I expect it will be the same this time.

Prime Minister in waiting Jeremy Hunt is the man to watch.

Javid is still one blunder away from being the new John Moore. Cf his radio interview before Christmas, but I’m glad I backed him at circa at 60/1 just before my bet on him to succeed Rudd at 33/1.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

kle4

RobD said:

Recidivist said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

When May loses her Brexit deal vote, she has to be replaced by a Leaver. Of those listed, only Raab or Mordaunt would do a decent job. Boris has no application or attention to detail, JRM has shown in recent weeks that he’s all mouth and no trousers, and Gove has no loyalty to anyone but Gove and simply can’t be trusted.

Javid and Hunt are both straw men who voted Leave and Rudd is a motor mouth who seldom puts her brain in action and who would betray Brexit in a heartbeat.

With the current Brexit process a shambles and with support for it oozing away, I would have thought that picking a remainer who respected the result was the optimum strategy from both a getting Brexit through and getting re-elected point of view. Which means Rudd or Hunt.

I soo like Rudd, but maybe her seat is too marginal.

All she needs to do is get all her party behind her and get the DUP back on board and they can get through the boundary changes and an easier seat is created nearby apparently which she could stand in. Simples

Not happening.

malcolmg

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B, recent evidence (even were we to assume you were correct on Mordaunt) would not suggest the possession of talent is indicative of prospects in a leadership contest.

Indeed not but there still needs to be a reason for them to win over fellow Mps. Is she a stop Boris candidate, an anti remain candidate, is she super competent or able to be publicly popular? What is her pitch to Mps and does she live up to that pitch?

I confess other than her being attractive I don't recall much of her.

Specsavers for you Kle4

kle4

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

malcolmg

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

That would involve having some intelligence and principles.

Nigelb

.

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

h

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

50 minutes without a comment? Is the thread broken or is everyone else still on holiday and safely tucked up in bed?

They're all still watching the highlights from Melbourne and shouting, 'This is how it felt, you Aussie bastards!'

Blimey, what's happened to the pitch? Gather rain is forecast though.

The Aussies batted on it.

Then Pujara played a duff shot.

Apparently it's also bouncing a bit more, but those two things sum up the difference really.

Bumrah bowled brilliantly, by all accounts. I like the Aussie pitch description - 22 yards of cat vomit (and that was before their abject batting display).

Toxic cat vomit now, I suspect.

It certainly threw up a surprise.

Yes, the commentary on Bumrah does suggest he bowled exceptionally well (an Indian quick bowling well? Are we facing the end times)? But let's face it, without Steve Smith this Aussie batting lineup wouldn't frighten Yorkshire 2nd XI.

He’s played eight tests, has five fers against England, Australia and SA, averages around 23, and shows the kind of skills that Anderson took a decade to master. I think he’s quite good....

... and please forgive the regurgitation of statistics.

kle4

malcolmg said:

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

That would involve having some intelligence and principles.

One of the two would be sufficient right now!

Jonathan

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

CD13

Mr G

"Specsavers for you Kle4."

I've decided politics is now so dysfunctional, I'll concentrate on assessing the females for attractiveness and nothing else.

Ms Mordaunt? I've seen a lot worse.

Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately. One or two in the Labour Party are passable, but being honest, the Commons is Kennel country really. They might win a prize at Crufts, but that's all they're good for.

kle4

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.

They have attimes leaked that they have concerns about the deal while not being brave enough to just quit, and are openly on manuevers, putting in little effort on selling that which they purportedly support, transparently because they will pretend later they had no choice but to back it.

No I don't expect politicians to ignore leadership wrangling. But they could put more effort in to looking like they care about what us before us right now beyond their chance to be PM, and they could show some leadership and spine if they are not satisfied. Silly as it was those cabinet members not quitting while publicly trying to change the deal showed more spine.

ydoethur

Jonathan said:

kle4 said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I guess the real question is “Who is the not Boris?

Sajid or Jeremy?

God help us if that is the best they can muster, pick a donkey , any donkey.

I think that's how they ended up with those two in the first place.

I've quite turned against both. Even during the most critical period of brexit all they seem to care about is careful positioning for a leadership contest. They could pretend a bit more at least.

That’s a bit harsh, they did not make Mays leadership an issue and any politician worth their salt would have to respond to the situation.

Says quite a lot about Labour that with the possible exception of Clive Lewis nobody seems to be trying to take advantage of Jeremy Corbyn's increasingly abject performance.

ydoethur

CD13 said:

Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.

kle4

ydoethur said:

CD13 said:

Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.

Oof. You're barking up the wrong tree with that comment.

asjohnstone

I think Mordaunt ticks a lot of boxes, a leaver who can offer generational change.

She's stayed in office whilst others have quit, non toxic background in international development. Seems relatable with a working class background. If I was a Tory MP my only criteria is, can this person win an election against Corbyn?

I think Penny is value at current price

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, just leaf it.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

CD13 said:

Priti Patel was attractive, but she's put on a bit of timber lately.

Really? I judge people by ability, so I woodn't know.

Oof. You're barking up the wrong tree with that comment.

I wondered who wood twig first...

AlastairMeeks

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, just leaf it.

Bud it's funny, Mr Dancer!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Meeks, are you saying that as a pro, or a con?

Gardenwalker

When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.

So she would measure up well against Corbyn?

Sean_F

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

Even if one is rich, the US justice system can be terrifying.

matt

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.

Not a hindrance any longer, as politicians from every party repeatedly prove.

A professional aside, these liars and charlatans set the standards that drive my (and your) regulator. That most (let’s be charitable, many) do not have the intellectual characteristics, probity or work ethic to behave in the way that they want others to behave is disappointing.

IanB2

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

AlastairMeeks

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Meeks, are you saying that as a pro, or a con?

At a time when public confidence in politicians is at an all-time low, the Conservatives would be ill-advised to choose someone who told the simplest of lies in pursuit of her policy objectives. She would become the poster child for everything that went wrong with Brexit.

ydoethur

Gardenwalker said:

When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.

I wouldn't have said either May or Johnson were seen as especially likely successors to Cameron. It was Osborne, first and last and all the time, who was the anointed one, with Crabb seen as an outside bet on the left and Gove on the right.

Osborne trashing himself along with Cameron left the way clear for either Hammond or May, and Hammond's decision not to run, Gove's decision to destroy himself (much feasting on schadenfreude among teachers) Boris being Boris and Crabb and Leadsom being seen as too inexperienced left May as the last one standing.

That was however doubtless profitable for those who took the oft-repeated tip by me and David Herdson among many others to lay the favourite. And May was, I suppose, one name mentioned as a possible under unusual circumstances. But to call her 'clear and palpable' is an overstatement.

Sean_F

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

AlastairMeeks

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

My only regret is that I eventually closed out that lay on this market, albeit very profitably. I should have left it open, as I have done on the next Prime Minister market.

ydoethur

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

Not as bad as this one though:

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

Sean_F

matt said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, reaching the top two requires not being something, rather than being something.

Mordaunt's neither a Grievance Remainer nor a Borisian Leaver. She isn't too old. She isn't inexperienced in ministerial terms (handy, when the leader becomes PM right away). She doesn't have baggage of a personal or political nature (the longer Javid's at Home, the longer the odds of something just going wrong, whether his doing or not).

She is, however, a shameless and proven liar.

Not a hindrance any longer, as politicians from every party repeatedly prove.

Probably an advantage.

Sean_F

@

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

Not as bad as this one though:

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."

Gardenwalker

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

ydoethur

Sean_F said:

@

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

Not as bad as this one though:

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."

Whereas JRM would count:

Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!

Sean_F

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

All is consumed by the desire to take out enemies and pursue grudges.

Gardenwalker

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

When Cameron was PM there were three clear and papabile candidates to succeed him: Osborne, May, and Johnson.

It’s really not clear if there are any decent successors to May.

So we are left with Hunt and Javid, and whichever it is will lose in 2022 to whoever it is that succeeds Corbyn.

I wouldn't have said either May or Johnson were seen as especially likely successors to Cameron. It was Osborne, first and last and all the time, who was the anointed one, with Crabb seen as an outside bet on the left and Gove on the right.

Osborne trashing himself along with Cameron left the way clear for either Hammond or May, and Hammond's decision not to run, Gove's decision to destroy himself (much feasting on schadenfreude among teachers) Boris being Boris and Crabb and Leadsom being seen as too inexperienced left May as the last one standing.

That was however doubtless profitable for those who took the oft-repeated tip by me and David Herdson among many others to lay the favourite. And May was, I suppose, one name mentioned as a possible under unusual circumstances. But to call her 'clear and palpable' is an overstatement.

We have different recollections.
From 2010 onwards, I would have cast Johnson as the favourite to succeed Cameron, with Osborne handicapped by his unfavourable public image. May was about the only other Cabinet Minister with a national profile, and - bizarre as it now seems - was considered one of the modernisers with broadly sympathetic coverage even in the Guardian.

Gove was never really seen as a runner - too speccy. And Crabbe, Leadsom - who s/he?

notme2

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.

Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.

MarqueeMark

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

@

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

Not as bad as this one though:

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."

Whereas JRM would count:

Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!

"SEXTUS!!!" would be the least likely career-ending text message to be sent by JRM.....

ydoethur

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

As a nation, we need our heads examining.

Gardenwalker

Sean_F said:

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

All is consumed by the desire to take out enemies and pursue grudges.

The only thing keeping the government going is fear of Corbyn and May’s Brexit impulse.

I have never seen a government more ideologically exhausted.

kle4

Corbyn had better be careful, some people think it is immoral to deny ancillary staff their holiday by recalling parliament.

kle4

MarqueeMark said:

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

@

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, laying Boris was profitable last time

Please excuse me while I throw up.

It does conjure up a horrible mental picture.

Not as bad as this one though:

IanB2 said:

Skip over this if you are having breakfast, but JRM did really offer the prolonged lay of the year.

No, it's worse. You'd have to put up with Boris declaiming "ego vos pedicabo et irrumabo."

Whereas JRM would count:

Primus, secundus, tertius, quartus, quintus, SEXTUS!!!

"SEXTUS!!!" would be the least likely career-ending text message to be sent by JRM.....

He only communicates via semaphore.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

As a nation, we need our heads examining.

Nothing wrong with the head of state - it's the chief executive whose decisions are wanting.

But you are entirely right.
To have dismissed tidal power on grounds of cost, while proceeding with the absurd and absurdly expensive nuclear project is unfathomable.

(I am not anti-nuclear, and think some of the new technologies - small scale molten salt plants, for example - are worth pursuing.)

Nigelb

There are a number of widely know, iconic D-Day images.

This isn't one of them...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46694509

Recidivist

ydoethur said:

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

Which makes it all the more depressing that insofar as Labour have any policy other than 'the Tories are evil, vote for us because as supporters of mass murderers we're much nicer,' they veer from the unworkable to the unoriginal to the actively dishonest.

To be honest, I have thought for a long time and I still think the biggest challenge facing us is power generation. All of the options we currently have are either poor, or unsustainable. Wind, for example, can produce 30% of our power but last night produced just 2%.

Yet the government is industriously screwing up this aspect of our infrastructure. Given a choice between building a tidal lagoon - which after construction would grant low-cost electricity more or less indefinitely with minimal environmental impact - or building a nuclear plant which will cost a fortune to build and maintain and irradiate an area for thousands of years afterwards - they went for the latter.

As a nation, we need our heads examining.

Exactly. We should be talking about things like power generation, and all the other details that summed together make the country what it is. Us anoraks on here at least get to enjoy the self indulgent fun and games in Westminster, but it leaves most people cold.

HYUFD

If May goes at the end of next year after being challenged again and losing, especially under a No Deal scenario having failed to get her Deal through, then Boris if he gets to the membership will likely win it. If the DUP no confidence her and there is a general election next Spring and Corbyn becomes PM then Boris also likely becomes Leader of the opposition.

If May does get her Deal through either the DUP back a vote of no confidence and she wins a majority at a general election next Spring or she manages to assure them on the backstop and remains leader and PM for years allowing a fresh fsced Deal backer like Tom Tugenhadt to come into the frame.

Given 89% of Tory members oppose a second EU referendum according to ConHome this morning (more than oppose May's Deal) no Tory PM is likely to go down that route


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/a-second-referendum-remains-deeply-unpopular-among-conservative-party-members.html

HYUFD

Angina Jolie suggests she wants to enter politics

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46699457

eek

kle4 said:

Corbyn had better be careful, some people think it is immoral to deny ancillary staff their holiday by recalling parliament.

I think there is a big difference between working on December 27/28th/31st and returning to work on January 2nd...

Charles

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

She offers nothing for everyone.

Disagree

I think she offers everything to no one

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1078586487623610369

Cyclefree

Gardenwalker said:

Strikingly, there appears to be no original policy thinking in the broader swathes of the Tory party: not on the backbenches, not in the thinktanks.

All is consumed by the “creation science” of Brexitism, trying to prove the the co-existence of Adam and Dinosaurs etc. None of this is going to make the country fit for the 2020s, let alone the Tory party.

Not entirely true. This paper, admittedly by a Tory MP not many have heard of, is quite thoughtful - http://johnpenrose.org/wp/2018/10/01/a-shining-city/.

Cyclefree

notme2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is honly available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.

Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.

How much would you pay to avoid being wrongly convicted and sent to prison? Or to gain access to see your child? Or to stop being evicted? Or to gain compensation for medical negligence? Or to get the right sort of education for your autistic child?

Toms

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party

And yet, Mrs May is routinely denounced for “putting Party before Country”.....

She offers nothing for everyone.

Disagree

I think she offers everything to no one

0 x 1 =1 x 0 = 0

Charles

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

Access to justice is important

There are clearly (or used to be) some frivolous cases that are supported and there have been some who have sought to weaponise litigation for political purposes (eg where an individual is backed by a political campaign I can see an argument for treating them differently as they are not “just” an ordinary citizen seeking justice) but the anecdotal reports suggest it has been too crudely restricted

Sean_F

notme2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

OldKingCole said:

The Nigel Evans piece of Legal Aid in the Guardian is frightening, and underlines the Nasty Party description of the Tories.
See '‘It’s completely wrong’: falsely accused Tory MP attacks legal aid cuts" on the Guardian website.

We are approaching the US situation, where justice is only available to the rich.

Though of course the rich are sometimes above the law to an unconscionable extent:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/article220097825.html

Plebs don’t deserve justice following their shameful decision to back Brexit.

We spend x million on Legal Aid, we should spend that on the NHS.

Without legal aid we might find out the real market rate for some legal services. It might be lower than you think.

The Golden Era of legal aid (from a lawyer's point of view) when it really was a licence to print money, came to an end in about 2000.

Benpointer

HYUFD said:

If May goes at the end of next year after being challenged again and losing, especially under a No Deal scenario having failed to get her Deal through, then Boris if he gets to the membership will likely win it. If the DUP no confidence her and there is a general election next Spring and Corbyn becomes PM then Boris also likely becomes Leader of the opposition.

If May does get her Deal through either the DUP back a vote of no confidence and she wins a majority at a general election next Spring or she manages to assure them on the backstop and remains leader and PM for years allowing a fresh fsced Deal backer like Tom Tugenhadt to come into the frame.

Given 89% of Tory members oppose a second EU referendum according to ConHome this morning (more than oppose May's Deal) no Tory PM is likely to go down that route


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/a-second-referendum-remains-deeply-unpopular-among-conservative-party-members.html

Blimey, I never appreciated that Tory membership is now down to just 1201 people.

Perhaps a few of us lefties should join it and turn it into the Conservative Socialist Party?