Another example of a week being a long time in politics.
Last week 117 Tory MPs say that they don't have confidence in May.
This week...
Yep. They’ll look real muppets if support for May against Labour’s VNOC turns into support for her deal as well.
I don't think Labour would mind if the deal passed. It would take a few Labour rebels but the party as a whole could continue to present that they might have have backed remain, and might have gotten better leave deals. In some ways that would be ideal for them. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the more tactically minded in the labour leadership are irritated at just how unpopular the deal is that is has no chance of passing and that it might force them to determine a position at some point.
I beg to differ. Labour would lose any chance of DUP support for a VNOC in the Gov which has to be their next move when May’s deal fails. Their chance of an early general election needs May’s deal to fail. No reason for them to support it.
I think you've misunderstood - I wasn't speculating that the Labour leadership would ever back the deal, just that they would not actually mind if it had managed to pass thanks to rebel votes. If it passed thanks to rebel votes and relatively united Tories the DUP could hardly blame Labour as a whole, and would take the Tories down.
But of course the deal is simply too unpopular to pass with a few labour rebels (who do not seem inclined anyway).
But if Labour abstained?
I cann them.
I just think abstention seems like a "win-win" strategy for Labour. They save the country from no deal. They evade responsibility for actively supporting May's deal. They respect the result of the referendum. And it ends with the Tories split somewhere near down the middle, and the DUP bringing down the government.
But they would not evade responsibility. Given the numbers of Tories against, Labour abstaining is the same as voting for it. They've made leavery noises and officially been for leave up to now, but their voters want to remain by a very large margin. They can acceptably fail to prevent Brexit and retain support, but to not prevent it when they could have prevented it, or at least this version of it?
That's right, Kle.
They're pretty much in the dock with their Remainers as it is, because of their inactivity during the referendum campaign. If they soft-pedal again, they're finished forever with a large portion of their core support.
I just think abstention seems like a "win-win" strategy for Labour. They save the country from no deal. They evade responsibility for actively supporting May's deal. They respect the result of the referendum. And it ends with the Tories split somewhere near down the middle, and the DUP bringing down the government.
And it infuriates the 70% of Labour voters that want remain?
Funny sort of win/win.
Well, maybe. But a cynic might ask where else those voters are going to go. I wouldn't bet on a Lib Den renaissance in the Labour heartlands (or anywhere else).
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They're pretty much in the dock with their Remainers as it is, because of their inactivity during the referendum campaign. If they soft-pedal again, they're finished forever with a large portion of their core support.