May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
Will she?
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
I think May's nominal majority is 3, if the DUP abstain right?
DUP have said they will support TM
May said she would respect the red lines. May said she would never accept a border in the Irish sea. May said there would be no early election.
People don't always follow through on what they say. May is very weak here and knows it, for the ERG loons to back Corbyn would be a bridge too far even for them . . . but for the DUP she is vulnerable. Expect them to go to her looking for a pound of flesh even if they do intend to back her anyway.
I have the explanation. He was looking through his papers before going home and realised that he'd forgotten to say he'd table the motion in his opening remarks. Easy mistake to make.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
That is quite an assumption to make. Given that at 2pm he was going to call for a VONC, at 3pm he wasn't and now at 5.55pm he is.
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
That is quite an assumption to make. Given that at 2pm he was going to call for a VONC, at 3pm he wasn't and now at 5.55pm he is.
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
There was a point early on after 2017 where they looked really squared away on that front - a "grind the buggers down" tactic.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
Will she?
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
I think May's nominal majority is 3, if the DUP abstain right?
DUP have said they will support TM
Waste of a day in parly then..
What else would they talk about? The whole problem with Parliament at the moment is it's doing nothing useful whatsoever. They might as well have theological debates on the Trinity or considering whether the Holodmar was a genocide for all the help they are right now.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
The A&CA committee says that the House's ability to express no confidence is unaffected by the FTPA, only the ability to trigger early elections.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
That is quite an assumption to make. Given that at 2pm he was going to call for a VONC, at 3pm he wasn't and now at 5.55pm he is.
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
Has there ever been a VONC in a PM before? I don't seem to be able to find reference to one. In which case there is no existing procedure or protocol that would govern how it should take place. It would be a matter of making it up on the fly.
Bit like Corbyn's overall approach to policy making/changing
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
Will she?
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
I think May's nominal majority is 3, if the DUP abstain right?
DUP have said they will support TM
May said she would respect the red lines. May said she would never accept a border in the Irish sea. May said there would be no early election.
People don't always follow through on what they say. May is very weak here and knows it, for the ERG loons to back Corbyn would be a bridge too far even for them . . . but for the DUP she is vulnerable. Expect them to go to her looking for a pound of flesh even if they do intend to back her anyway.
TM is the one person standing against another referendum and extending A50
In a similar manner, I've recently been thinking of Mrs May as being the SS Ohio.
Not that she weighs a few thousand tonnes, but in her sheer doggedness in not sinking against all comers.
"Although May reached Brexit successfully, she was so badly damaged that she had to be effectively scuttled in order to offload her duties, and never led again. Th PM is fondly remembered in Britain, where to this day she is considered to be the savior of the beleaguered island."
"Another blimp, this time a JRM 1725, was shot down by a May gunner; however, the blimp crashed into May's starboard side, forward of the upper bridge, and exploded. Half a wing hit the upper work of the bridge and a rain of shite showered the government from stem to stern. The blimp's bomb failed to detonate. Captain Clarke was telephoned from aft by the chief officer, who told Clarke that the JRM 1725 had crashed into the media and then bounced onto the government. Clarke 'rather curtly' replied: "Oh that's nothing. We've had a Boris 2018 on the foredeck for nearly half an hour.""
"Wires were now hauled aboard and emergency salvage trolls began to discharge the memes. At the same time, a fleet auxiliary, RFA Hammond Organ, began to pump the 10,000 tons of votes into her own ballot boxes. As the votes flowed in, May sank lower and lower in the water. The last few votes entered her as simultaneously her keel settled on the bottom. Her captain, the British public, was subsequently awarded the George Cross."
"On 19 September 2019 the forward half of May was towed ten miles offshore and sunk by gunfire from the destroyer HMS Johnson. On 3 October, the stern half was scuttled in deep water using explosive charges laid by the salvage vessel RFA Mogg's Nanny."
OT given the ONS has said unpaid student loans must be officially added to government borrowing, shouldn't the government try and gain some political support by cutting student loans and paying more upfront?
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
That is quite an assumption to make. Given that at 2pm he was going to call for a VONC, at 3pm he wasn't and now at 5.55pm he is.
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
Has there ever been a VONC in a PM before? I don't seem to be able to find reference to one.
There hasn't needed to be one before. Essentially this is a "hack" to stop the FTPA affecting the House's ability to express no confidence.
We appear to be in an era of high constitutional innovation.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Reposts are the first sign of Sunilitis
To be fair, someone did ask me to repost it.
And I think Sunil should repost his excellent output!
OT given the ONS has said unpaid student loans must be officially added to government borrowing, shouldn't the government try and gain some political support by cutting student loans and paying more upfront?
No.
Because nobody understands the system, so they get no brownie points for it.
That change is long overdue, by the way. It was a typical (Lord) Browne farce - try to hide everything, only admit it when you're forced to and then blithely hope there will be no consequences.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
Will she?
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
I think May's nominal majority is 3, if the DUP abstain right?
DUP have said they will support TM
May said she would respect the red lines. May said she would never accept a border in the Irish sea. May said there would be no early election.
People don't always follow through on what they say. May is very weak here and knows it, for the ERG loons to back Corbyn would be a bridge too far even for them . . . but for the DUP she is vulnerable. Expect them to go to her looking for a pound of flesh even if they do intend to back her anyway.
TM is the one person standing against another referendum and extending A50
Is that it? And which do the DUP oppose more?
Another referendum and extending A50 or May's Irish sea border?
Even if they oppose an A50 extension more (and I'm not sure that they do and that they have confidence in May avoiding it anyway) that doesn't stop them going to May and demanding another billion pounds gets found for a pet project of theirs in Northern Ireland.
I think the Lib Dems would do well to abstain and condemn Labour playing party political tricks.
I am sure the LibDems will wish to take every opportunity presented to distance themselves from the Tories. It is an essential first step to resore any credibility with centre-left voters.
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
We need responsible opposition not theatre. Corbyn is falling like a stone in popular opinion
But Labour are not.
They're still at best barely making headway against a government in more chaos than the MacDonald government of 1930-31. At worst they're falling back.
You start to wonder at what point we say they're a party whose time has gone.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
I think the Lib Dems would do well to abstain and condemn Labour playing party political tricks.
After they led calls for Labour to table a VONC? That's ridiculous.
I missed that so fair point - I withdraw. They shouldn't have got drawn in to parliamentary games though. Pity they can't project statesman like center ground gravitas which would really resonate at the moment. Mind you, Corbyn coould lose a big chunk of voters to them if he missteps now.
"That is because all of those options - including a further referendum - are currently opposed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
He will only countenance a further referendum, if Labour fails to secure a general election. Labour supporters of a further referendum are slowly realising that Corbyn holds a veto over their cherished goal."
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
To stop the deal. And the *only* leverage they have over May is their C&S. They're using a blunt instrument, but wielding it with subtlety.
If the DUP want to stop the deal they should tell May to pull the deal or they'll vote No Confidence along with Corbyn ... and follow through on it if she doesn't pull the deal.
If May is still saying "nothing has changed" by the time this is voted on and the DUP don't vote against her then they're not really that against the deal.
(If this was a FTPA-triggering VONC that would be less clear, but by doing it this way the DUP have nowhere to hide)
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
We need responsible opposition not theatre. Corbyn is falling like a stone in popular opinion
But Labour are not.
They're still at best barely making headway against a government in more chaos than the MacDonald government of 1930-31. At worst they're falling back.
You start to wonder at what point we say they're a party whose time has gone.
Given they could be the next government, I doubt we'llbe saying that.
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
If TM goes so does Brexit. She is brexits best chance
I think this demonstrates why this VONC is a good idea.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
Precisely.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
They don't want to pull the plug until absolutely necessary. They, unlike everyone else, can afford to wait it out.
But this isn't pulling the plug on the government. Not sure what they gain from waiting currently, they surely want an alternative deal to be found and that can't happen while May is running down the clock.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
Does it not depend on when and how the government collapses? There may not be time to find a replacement for May.
There won't be. Deal passes and the DUP cause a GE in 2019. Any other option it's total bloody chaos and probably a GE happens in 2019, with the only alternatives being a powerless minority government unable to pass anything.
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
If TM goes so does Brexit. She is brexits best chance
So what?
Though anyway, if TM goes she gets replaced by a Tory. Especially since this is not a GE-triggering VONC.
You think the Tories are going to unite behind a Brexit-cancelling candidate to replace May?
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
We need responsible opposition not theatre. Corbyn is falling like a stone in popular opinion
But Labour are not.
They're still at best barely making headway against a government in more chaos than the MacDonald government of 1930-31. At worst they're falling back.
You start to wonder at what point we say they're a party whose time has gone.
Given they could be the next government, I doubt we'llbe saying that.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The wrong kind of attention
I doubt that. It is quite normal - indeed proper - for the Opposition to be seen to harry the Government - particularly given the dysfunctional nature of the current incumbents.
I think this demonstrates why this VONC is a good idea.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
Precisely.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
They don't want to pull the plug until absolutely necessary. They, unlike everyone else, can afford to wait it out.
But this isn't pulling the plug on the government. Not sure what they gain from waiting currently, they surely want an alternative deal to be found and that can't happen while May is running down the clock.
Pulling the plug on May, and the deal, and not damaging or disentangling the agreement with the Tories as a whole would be, I suspect, trickier than than the DUP admit, which is why while they will do it, they will wait until it has to happen.
My biggest question is would the DUP regard a referendum with a deal option to break the terms of their agreement with the Tories. Presumably yes, and they are not the sort to creatively find a way to back down, but given potential Labour deals or remaining, what prospect they don't pull the plug on the government at some point? Clapping hands and wishing for new facts won't cut it forever.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The wrong kind of attention
How is Labour opposes Tories the wrong kind of attention for Labour? How is Labour calls Tories a shambles (days after Tories call themselves a shambles was the news) the wrong kind of attention for Labour?
This is a bit of red meat the Corbynistas will love even if their man lacks the numbers. Look at how they like Diane Abbott, they're not particularly bothered by numbers!
I think this demonstrates why this VONC is a good idea.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
Precisely.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
They don't want to pull the plug until absolutely necessary. They, unlike everyone else, can afford to wait it out.
But this isn't pulling the plug on the government. Not sure what they gain from waiting currently, they surely want an alternative deal to be found and that can't happen while May is running down the clock.
Whilst at the same time acknowledging that no more negotiations are possible because the EU have said that it is this deal or nowt.
So how can Corbyn negotiate with the EU when they have said no to any more negotiation??
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The wrong kind of attention
I doubt that.
As Jim Hacker said, nine newspapers of ten were terrible - not a good word about him. But the tenth was the worst, because it didn't mention him at all.
I suppose we should remember that Corbyn spent most of the election campaign being brutally hammered for his long and loathsome record - and it only seemed to make him stronger.
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
That is quite an assumption to make. Given that at 2pm he was going to call for a VONC, at 3pm he wasn't and now at 5.55pm he is.
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.
I meant in the method of calling a vote, not the decision on when to call one. No matter who advised on the matter he would need to make the call, but in terms of the different methods no doubt someone else actually researched it - one thing Labour have done relatively well this year is use parliamentary procedures to achieve some wins.
Has there ever been a VONC in a PM before? I don't seem to be able to find reference to one.
There hasn't needed to be one before. Essentially this is a "hack" to stop the FTPA affecting the House's ability to express no confidence.
We appear to be in an era of high constitutional innovation.
I don't get that. Why does the FTPA affect the House's ability to express no confidence?
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
We need responsible opposition not theatre. Corbyn is falling like a stone in popular opinion
But Labour are not.
They're still at best barely making headway against a government in more chaos than the MacDonald government of 1930-31. At worst they're falling back.
You start to wonder at what point we say they're a party whose time has gone.
Given they could be the next government, I doubt we'llbe saying that.
I understand the theory behind it, but I'm not convinced, especially from the man whose manifesto openly pitched to replace Labour as the main opposition and failed so spectacularly.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The wrong kind of attention
I doubt that.
As Jim Hacker said, nine newspapers of ten were terrible - not a good word about him. But the tenth was the worst, because it didn't mention him at all.
I suppose we should remember that Corbyn spent most of the election campaign being brutally hammered for his long and loathsome record - and it only seemed to make him stronger.
I am no Corbynite but I suspect that the 2017 election demonstrated that he had a better feel for the real concerns of the public at large than the mainstream media - marmite though he certainly is.
I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea
I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
Yeah, but apart from that....what seamanship.
Indeed. Though the next best suggestion is to pray to Poseiden to get us back to port, so what can you do eh?
O god of wine, deliver me! Now halfway cross life’s stormy sea From snares and gins of every sort And bring me safely back to Port
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
If TM goes so does Brexit. She is brexits best chance
May is to Brexit, what Xenos vesparum is to the common wasp.
Seems like with DUP and ERG on board, the vote is a waste of time. If it was going to be close you might have a few hard-right tempted, but no real point with the numbers as they are.
Winning or losing such a vote is rarely the point - it is much more a piece of theatre which Corbyn could repeat next month were he so inclined.
He'd be a fool if he did. I think the swing voters are behind May at the moment and not feeling tolerant of anyone playing silly beggars.
I disagree there. One of Labour's difficulties has that Brexit has effectively frozen it out from day to day political commentary. By acting in this way, Corbyn will be seen to be doing something - and will gain headlines and attention. Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The wrong kind of attention
I doubt that.
As Jim Hacker said, nine newspapers of ten were terrible - not a good word about him. But the tenth was the worst, because it didn't mention him at all.
I suppose we should remember that Corbyn spent most of the election campaign being brutally hammered for his long and loathsome record - and it only seemed to make him stronger.
I am no Corbynite but I suspect that the 2017 election demonstrated that he had a better feel for the real concerns of the public at large than the mainstream media - marmite though he certainly is.
He may have understood them. Indeed, in focusing on domestic issues he did show a better grasp than May.
Shame his solutions were based on lies, false accounting and discredited dogma, and the only thing they had in common was they would have made matters worse.
The Tory whips will be virtually gagging for this vote. Will show May has the confidence of every single Tory MP
And they all own any chaos that follows.
err you think they own Corbyn's chaos.. you are getting a touch deluded
The Tory MPs would have doubly stood behind May. If the deal doesn't work or fails to pass, they can't claim it was her acting alone or didn't have the opportunity to do something. They are yoked to her.
Well the DUP have stated that they oppose May, not the government, so driving a wedge between them if possible seems a reasonable plan.
Well indeed. What is the DUP's actual aim here?
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
If TM goes so does Brexit. She is brexits best chance
May is to Brexit, what Xenos vesparum is to the common wasp.
Had to look that one up - the things you learn on PB!
Seems like with DUP and ERG on board, the vote is a waste of time. If it was going to be close you might have a few hard-right tempted, but no real point with the numbers as they are.
The point is to have the vote. Winning would just be a bonus.
Reviewing the comments on Labourlist under Nick's article, there is far more heat than light, as much disagreement as you'd find on a Tory forum (indeed more, given the predominance of hard Brexit views amongst the latter), and not a lot of support for his way forward. It's also clear that not many labour members (making the assumption that most posters are likely to be such) really buy into Labour's putative alternative deal.
An amusing line, but of course as I am sure many people are replying to him right now, even more Labour MPs didn't think Corbyn was good enough to run his party, and all but one of them still said he was good enough to be PM come the GE (and that one is no longer a member of the party). So it's exactly the kind of nonsense a pundit would say.
Seems like with DUP and ERG on board, the vote is a waste of time. If it was going to be close you might have a few hard-right tempted, but no real point with the numbers as they are.
Reviewing the comments on Labourlist under Nick's article, there is far more heat than light, as much disagreement as you'd find on a Tory forum (indeed more, given the predominance of hard Brexit views amongst the latter), and not a lot of support for his way forward. It's also clear that not many labour members (making the assumption that most posters are likely to be such) really buy into Labour's putative alternative deal.
Does Labourlist have many Corbynistas in its comments section?
Reviewing the comments on Labourlist under Nick's article, there is far more heat than light, as much disagreement as you'd find on a Tory forum (indeed more, given the predominance of hard Brexit views amongst the latter), and not a lot of support for his way forward. It's also clear that not many labour members (making the assumption that most posters are likely to be such) really buy into Labour's putative alternative deal.
They're not fools then. The leadership's position on that seems very transparently a holding position only, to be discarded but allowing them to claim they would have done it if they could.
Politics isn't always what you can do but what you can't. Labour are well aware the totality of Conservative MPs will oppose any Confidence motion but that isn't the point.
The point is to a) get some space on the agenda and b) remind people the opposition is out there and is a credible and viable alternative to the Government (whether people believe that or not). It will also remind everyone of the dependence of the Government on the DUP.
There is no route to Corbyn becoming PM in the near future short of a Conservative schism which isn't very likely - even passing the Deal and then triggering a Confidence vote with DUP support only offers the possibility of a GE and certainly no guarantee Corbyn prevails.
The question becomes what May will deal if and when the WA is defeated in the Commons - as she has personally ruled out a second referendum, it's down to revoking A50 or No Deal. Whether either works to the Conservatives' electoral advantage is debatable.
Comments
in-out,
shake it all about
Do the hokey-cokey and we turn around
That's what it's all about.
May said she would never accept a border in the Irish sea.
May said there would be no early election.
People don't always follow through on what they say. May is very weak here and knows it, for the ERG loons to back Corbyn would be a bridge too far even for them . . . but for the DUP she is vulnerable. Expect them to go to her looking for a pound of flesh even if they do intend to back her anyway.
Its lost focus in recent months.
* referendum winner...
Looks like Labour have been doing their research.
Bit like Corbyn's overall approach to policy making/changing
Your point being?
Not that she weighs a few thousand tonnes, but in her sheer doggedness in not sinking against all comers.
"Although May reached Brexit successfully, she was so badly damaged that she had to be effectively scuttled in order to offload her duties, and never led again. Th PM is fondly remembered in Britain, where to this day she is considered to be the savior of the beleaguered island."
"Another blimp, this time a JRM 1725, was shot down by a May gunner; however, the blimp crashed into May's starboard side, forward of the upper bridge, and exploded. Half a wing hit the upper work of the bridge and a rain of shite showered the government from stem to stern. The blimp's bomb failed to detonate. Captain Clarke was telephoned from aft by the chief officer, who told Clarke that the JRM 1725 had crashed into the media and then bounced onto the government. Clarke 'rather curtly' replied: "Oh that's nothing. We've had a Boris 2018 on the foredeck for nearly half an hour.""
"Wires were now hauled aboard and emergency salvage trolls began to discharge the memes. At the same time, a fleet auxiliary, RFA Hammond Organ, began to pump the 10,000 tons of votes into her own ballot boxes. As the votes flowed in, May sank lower and lower in the water. The last few votes entered her as simultaneously her keel settled on the bottom. Her captain, the British public, was subsequently awarded the George Cross."
"On 19 September 2019 the forward half of May was towed ten miles offshore and sunk by gunfire from the destroyer HMS Johnson. On 3 October, the stern half was scuttled in deep water using explosive charges laid by the salvage vessel RFA Mogg's Nanny."
BTW: for anyone not acquainted with the real story, it's well worth a read:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SS_Ohio
Lab 262 - 2 deputies + 35SNP + 12 LD + 4 PC +1 Green = 312
DUP will presumably vote for though. Harmon?
But you're right.
I do apologise for comparing Hitler and Saddam to Dominic Cummings.
They may have been racist mass murdering bastards who caused untold misery, but they don't quite deserve that.
Is Corbyn astute or as thick as porcine waste?
We appear to be in an era of high constitutional innovation.
And I think Sunil should repost his excellent output!
(Runs for cover.)
Because nobody understands the system, so they get no brownie points for it.
That change is long overdue, by the way. It was a typical (Lord) Browne farce - try to hide everything, only admit it when you're forced to and then blithely hope there will be no consequences.
Another referendum and extending A50 or May's Irish sea border?
Even if they oppose an A50 extension more (and I'm not sure that they do and that they have confidence in May avoiding it anyway) that doesn't stop them going to May and demanding another billion pounds gets found for a pet project of theirs in Northern Ireland.
Time for the DUP to piss or get off the pot, as they say.
If they really want to stop May's deal as they claim then they have a silver bullet here. Kill May's premiership and force a result that the ERG couldn't.
If they don't take it, then it shows them to be full of hot air. Corbyn is putting them on the spot as much as anything else and there's no love lost between those two.
What larks.
You start to wonder at what point we say they're a party whose time has gone.
Theatre is always a key part of politics anyway - as exemplified by SNP demands for a VONC.
The ERG lacked the numbers but tried anyway. The DUP have the numbers but seem to be unwilling to use them.
https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1074696950019178496
"That is because all of those options - including a further referendum - are currently opposed by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
He will only countenance a further referendum, if Labour fails to secure a general election. Labour supporters of a further referendum are slowly realising that Corbyn holds a veto over their cherished goal."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46593750
If May is still saying "nothing has changed" by the time this is voted on and the DUP don't vote against her then they're not really that against the deal.
(If this was a FTPA-triggering VONC that would be less clear, but by doing it this way the DUP have nowhere to hide)
https://twitter.com/StewartMcDonald/status/1074730280760561665
Though anyway, if TM goes she gets replaced by a Tory. Especially since this is not a GE-triggering VONC.
You think the Tories are going to unite behind a Brexit-cancelling candidate to replace May?
https://www.libdemvoice.org/tim-farron-writes-corbyn-is-handing-the-incompetent-tories-the-next-election-58673.html
My biggest question is would the DUP regard a referendum with a deal option to break the terms of their agreement with the Tories. Presumably yes, and they are not the sort to creatively find a way to back down, but given potential Labour deals or remaining, what prospect they don't pull the plug on the government at some point? Clapping hands and wishing for new facts won't cut it forever.
How is Labour calls Tories a shambles (days after Tories call themselves a shambles was the news) the wrong kind of attention for Labour?
This is a bit of red meat the Corbynistas will love even if their man lacks the numbers. Look at how they like Diane Abbott, they're not particularly bothered by numbers!
So how can Corbyn negotiate with the EU when they have said no to any more negotiation??
I suppose we should remember that Corbyn spent most of the election campaign being brutally hammered for his long and loathsome record - and it only seemed to make him stronger.
Now halfway cross life’s stormy sea
From snares and gins of every sort
And bring me safely back to Port
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1074739880549339137
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1074739593537306624
Shame his solutions were based on lies, false accounting and discredited dogma, and the only thing they had in common was they would have made matters worse.
They've given mixed messages over the last fortnight.
Politics isn't always what you can do but what you can't. Labour are well aware the totality of Conservative MPs will oppose any Confidence motion but that isn't the point.
The point is to a) get some space on the agenda and b) remind people the opposition is out there and is a credible and viable alternative to the Government (whether people believe that or not). It will also remind everyone of the dependence of the Government on the DUP.
There is no route to Corbyn becoming PM in the near future short of a Conservative schism which isn't very likely - even passing the Deal and then triggering a Confidence vote with DUP support only offers the possibility of a GE and certainly no guarantee Corbyn prevails.
The question becomes what May will deal if and when the WA is defeated in the Commons - as she has personally ruled out a second referendum, it's down to revoking A50 or No Deal. Whether either works to the Conservatives' electoral advantage is debatable.
Theresa May is going to head into the Christmas holiday with both her Party and Parliament voting to say they have confidence in her leadership...