To be fair, there is a big overlap between Brexiteers, and those who get riled up about the overseas aid budget. Win/win for them, I guess.
Only the most dedicated remainers can convince themselves that Cumbria is going to get short of water. Presumably they think the locusts will drink it all.
Funnily enough, it did suffer a severe drought during the height of summer, but not even the most rabid Remainer attributed it to Brexit.
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
Lab Most seats 2.13 (Implies Corbyn PM of 2.0 should a GE happen perhaps since he does NOT need most seats to form a minority administration (the Tories lack allies)) 2019 GE 2.53 2019 MayExit 1.435 Implies NoMayExit 2019 3.3
A MayExit in 2019 occurs one of two ways - resignation AFTER a GE defeat by Corbyn, or resignation WHEN there is no GE defeat by Corbyn.
2019 GE+ Tory defeat implied at 2.0 * 2.53 = 5.06
Importantly that probability space can be occupied by May or AN Other Tory... Nevertheless we estimate it to be 19.76% from Betfair prices of Lab Most Seats and 2019 GE. MayXit with no GE preceeding must be 1/1.435 - 0.1976 = 50% probability. This portion definitely excludes Corbyn as PM I think... 30% May gets through to the end of 2019.
What does all this mean ? I'm not sure - here might be some way to combine these probabilities to yield the 'correct' price (In terms of other prices) for Corbyn after MayExit 2019 though....
No deal Brexiters and remainers who don't care if no deal is risked (I think push comes to shove we'll revoke too, but boy what a risk to take).
There are both Leavers and Remainers who favour No Deal. The former, because they believe it would be a good thing, the latter, because they think it would be a bad thing.
I at least respect the honesty of those who favour no deal, for whatever reason. While the default of no deal is not as certain as it once was with the court ruling, that honesty is better than those who claim to despise no deal while happy to risk it.
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
To be fair, there is a big overlap between Brexiteers, and those who get riled up about the overseas aid budget. Win/win for them, I guess.
Only the most dedicated remainers can convince themselves that Cumbria is going to get short of water. Presumably they think the locusts will drink it all.
Funnily enough, it did suffer a severe drought during the height of summer, but not even the most rabid Remainer attributed it to Brexit.
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
I know many may expect me to say this but, yet again, TM has again sailed through another stormy sea
I appreciate her sailing skills in being able to keep us afloat, and for seeing off that mutiny, but the ship is now taking on water, we've lost the navigational charts, are running low on food, and we never actually knew where we were headed in the first place.
Up the creek without a paddle, surely?
I was thinking to properly convey the problem a sense of being in the deep ocean, becalmed for weeks, was more apt.
Yes, I think the Rime of the Ancient Mariner, with the albatross of Brexit around her neck is more apt.
"And having once turned round walks on, And turns no more his head; Because he knows, a frightful fiend Doth close behind him tread."
Day after day, day after day, We stuck, nor breath nor motion; As idle as a painted ship Upon a painted ocean.
Alone, alone, all, all alone, Alone on a wide wide sea! And never a saint took pity on My soul in agony.
Lab Most seats 2.13 (Implies Corbyn PM of 2.0 should a GE happen perhaps since he does NOT need most seats to form a minority administration (the Tories lack allies)) 2019 GE 2.53 2019 MayExit 1.435 Implies NoMayExit 2019 3.3
A MayExit in 2019 occurs one of two ways - resignation AFTER a GE defeat by Corbyn, or resignation WHEN there is no GE defeat by Corbyn.
2019 GE+ Tory defeat implied at 2.0 * 2.53 = 5.06
Importantly that probability space can be occupied by May or AN Other Tory... Nevertheless we estimate it to be 19.76% from Betfair prices of Lab Most Seats and 2019 GE. MayXit with no GE preceeding must be 1/1.435 - 0.1976 = 50% probability. This portion definitely excludes Corbyn as PM I think... 30% May gets through to the end of 2019.
What does all this mean ? I'm not sure - here might be some way to combine these probabilities to yield the 'correct' price (In terms of other prices) for Corbyn after MayExit 2019 though....
Requires further thought.
There has to be an arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere?
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
That chart is completely ridiculous. Edinburgh is so far ahead of Glasgow in law as to be out of sight with pretty much every distinguished Scots academic lawyer in their faculty. I didn't go to either but that really doesn't inspire confidence.
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
Personally, I think doing law as a undergraduate degree when it’s not needed to qualify is an odd choice. One can something more interesting instead. Perhaps only the weaker candidates need take a law degree to make up for their weakenesses.
I don't think it's at all clear that Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour party leader at the end of 2019.
Can you show your workings?
1) He's 70 next year. He'll have to retire sometime.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
The age of 70 today though is probably the equivalent of 60 as late as the 1950s. On that basis, he is younger in real terms than Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee and Macmillan.
To be fair, there is a big overlap between Brexiteers, and those who get riled up about the overseas aid budget. Win/win for them, I guess.
Only the most dedicated remainers can convince themselves that Cumbria is going to get short of water. Presumably they think the locusts will drink it all.
Funnily enough, it did suffer a severe drought during the height of summer, but not even the most rabid Remainer attributed it to Brexit.
I find that hard to believe. None of them?
Well, I had my suspicions....but didn't voice them, David.
I don't think it's at all clear that Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour party leader at the end of 2019.
Can you show your workings?
1) He's 70 next year. He'll have to retire sometime.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
The age of 70 today though is probably the equivalent of 60 as late as the 1950s. On that basis, he is younger in real terms than Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee and Macmillan.
Though they didn't have the stresses of a 24/7 news media ...
... which I'm sure some self-pitying MPs would view as more stressful than having to deal with WWII.
I don't think it's at all clear that Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour party leader at the end of 2019.
Can you show your workings?
1) He's 70 next year. He'll have to retire sometime.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
The age of 70 today though is probably the equivalent of 60 as late as the 1950s. On that basis, he is younger in real terms than Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee and Macmillan.
The job is far more demanding though. Macmillan was reading literature during his premiership. I very much doubt Theresa May is doing the same.
I don't think it's at all clear that Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour party leader at the end of 2019.
Can you show your workings?
1) He's 70 next year. He'll have to retire sometime.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
Suddenly I understand. May isn't running down the clock on Brexit; She's running down the clock till Corbyn drops dead.
He looks to be in fine fettle, no fear of that.
The real test is if he ever becomes PM, as that is a totally unrelenting schedule. You see all age very quickly and is why actually I always thought Blair and Cameron having numerous chillaxing breaks during a year was very sensible.
Brown couldn’t hack it, even though he has been in a big job for years, as all of a sudden it is day in day out that you are expected to be constantly on the go.
It seems a bit ridiculous for parliament to take a 2 week break when there are so many important issues to be discussed and decided upon.
It does, however on the other hand they have discussed the issues to death, and they are not actually going to advance things with more discussion. Decisions would be welcome, and would be possible at least in ruling out options, but are they really any more or less likely to make a call now or in 2 weeks?
Perhaps May thinks that the season of goodwill and a bellyfull of sprouts will make her party less fractious.
Perhaps May thinks her MPs will be won round by two weeks in the capable hands of the activists and leadership of the Conservative Associations of darkest Leaverstan.
Perhaps May still believes in a magic EUCO Summit in January that's going to save her.
These are forlorn hopes, but this is a magical time of the year, and Mrs May's hopes spring eternal.
Apologies if this idea has been floated on here already (I'm guessing it has since it's a fairly obvious way out of the impasse) but perhaps TM ought to make a radical and at first sight taunting and satirical offer to the ERG. Support the WA and in return she will put David Davis in charge of negotiating a super Canada as the FTA. And not only that. At the same time a very serious and harrowing workstream to be set up under Boris Johnson (with Liam Fox doing the leg work), objective being to grind out the consequently necessary 'high tech' solution to the Irish border. So off they go and in the meantime she and Olly Robbins can work on more of a Norway plus or a Chequers minus. See who gets there first. That seems like a win win to me, although I suspect that win wins are not what anyone really wants right now.
EU not being helpful to T May today. They have announced that mini-deals would be done on - " British citizens living or travelling in the EU, financial services, transport, customs, health and animal health checks, personal data and EU climate policy."
They would last about 9 months so the UK could sign proper bilaterals with individual EU countries. More fuel to the Managed No Deal crowd.
I don't think it's at all clear that Jeremy Corbyn will still be Labour party leader at the end of 2019.
Can you show your workings?
1) He's 70 next year. He'll have to retire sometime.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
The age of 70 today though is probably the equivalent of 60 as late as the 1950s. On that basis, he is younger in real terms than Chamberlain, Churchill, Attlee and Macmillan.
The job is far more demanding though. Macmillan was reading literature during his premiership. I very much doubt Theresa May is doing the same.
I would have thought that Chamberlain and Churchill faced much greater pressures.Corbyn might also be a bit like Attlee - and not be too bothered about media comment.
Are motions of no confidence like votes on Europe ie you can keep asking until you get the answer you want?
There are no limits on how often oppositions may move motions of no confidence, but it's unusual to have one unless you think there's a good chance of winning. In this case, I don't think Labour have much to lose though.
It is scary that she is a solicitor. What does that say about the state of legal training at the moment?
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
The university of Hertfordshire not exactly known for its academic excellence.
Before you patronise too much, I believe that law there is pretty good. Not brilliant but neither is it appalling.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
That chart is completely ridiculous. Edinburgh is so far ahead of Glasgow in law as to be out of sight with pretty much every distinguished Scots academic lawyer in their faculty. I didn't go to either but that really doesn't inspire confidence.
It's got Oxford third for History, ahead of the likes of Exeter, which is also laughable.
Hertfordshire used to have a pretty good History faculty ten years ago. Don't know what it's like now.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
Will she?
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
117 Tories expressed no confidence in May in the anonymity of a secret ballot. Be interesting to know just how many will have the guts to do it in public.
Are motions of no confidence like votes on Europe ie you can keep asking until you get the answer you want?
There are no limits on how often oppositions may move motions of no confidence, but it's unusual to have one unless you think there's a good chance of winning. In this case, I don't think Labour have much to lose though.
Callaghan moved a VONC in early 1980 despite Thatcher having a majority of over 40.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Is it? Are you sure?
If so the DUP should vote with Corbyn, against May. That's the ultimate logic of their position, especially if this is not an FTPA-binding vote. Doubt they will though, if Labour was led by someone less toxic (to them) they might have.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
It gets 'vote of no confidence in May' back as the headline narrative, not 'Labour vacillating on Brexit'. Not a waste of time to Corbyn (ok, Labour discussions were not the main headline, but the calls for a vote were making some stories).
Are motions of no confidence like votes on Europe ie you can keep asking until you get the answer you want?
There are no limits on how often oppositions may move motions of no confidence, but it's unusual to have one unless you think there's a good chance of winning. In this case, I don't think Labour have much to lose though.
Callaghan moved a VONC in early 1980 despite Thatcher having a majority of over 40.
And that was a pointless piece of gesture politics by someone who should have known better.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
It gets 'vote of no confidence in May' back as the headline narrative, not 'Labour vacillating on Brexit'. Not a waste of time to Corbyn (ok, Labour discussions were not the main headline, but the calls for a vote were making some stories).
Corbyn playing Westminster bubble games just weeks from Brexit...
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
That isn't what the administrative and constitutional affairs committee report says. They say that Mrs May would be expected to resign if she lost.
Expected to is not obliged to? Given there is a method by which she would be obliged to, it seems bizarre there would be another method that required it.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
It gets 'vote of no confidence in May' back as the headline narrative, not 'Labour vacillating on Brexit'. Not a waste of time to Corbyn (ok, Labour discussions were not the main headline, but the calls for a vote were making some stories).
Corbyn playing Westminster bubble games just weeks from Brexit...
Are motions of no confidence like votes on Europe ie you can keep asking until you get the answer you want?
There are no limits on how often oppositions may move motions of no confidence, but it's unusual to have one unless you think there's a good chance of winning. In this case, I don't think Labour have much to lose though.
Callaghan moved a VONC in early 1980 despite Thatcher having a majority of over 40.
And that was a pointless piece of gesture politics by someone who should have known better.
Thatcher did likewise in Autumn 1978 following the end of the LibLab pact.It was very unlikely to succeed because at that point the SNP were still backing Callaghan.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
That isn't what the administrative and constitutional affairs committee report says. They say that Mrs May would be expected to resign if she lost.
Expected to is not obliged to? Given there is a method by which she would be obliged to, it seems bizarre there would be another method that required it.
Quite.
I would suggest this Occams' razor gives you the correct answer.
May will win the vote hands down - what a clownshoe Corbyn is.
It’s a vote in her personally and has no significance for the FTPA.
Waste of time then.
It gets 'vote of no confidence in May' back as the headline narrative, not 'Labour vacillating on Brexit'. Not a waste of time to Corbyn (ok, Labour discussions were not the main headline, but the calls for a vote were making some stories).
So hold on May would be expected to resign and the tories elect a new leader...is jezza sure he wants that?
Does Corbyn actually know what the difference is between PM and Goverment in this situation?
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I would assume those more canny than him plotted this out.
If Macdonnell didn't know, then that won't have happened. He's the only one at the top of Labour with a fully functioning brain, even if he does sometimes make Dominic Cummings look like a sane and responsible human being.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily the same thing.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
Here ye go:
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General, I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral, I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical; I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, For me all votes of confidence are problematical, About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme) With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Comments
https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?s=law
Now looking at Betfair prices:
Lab Most seats 2.13 (Implies Corbyn PM of 2.0 should a GE happen perhaps since he does NOT need most seats to form a minority administration (the Tories lack allies))
2019 GE 2.53
2019 MayExit 1.435 Implies NoMayExit 2019 3.3
A MayExit in 2019 occurs one of two ways - resignation AFTER a GE defeat by Corbyn, or resignation WHEN there is no GE defeat by Corbyn.
2019 GE+ Tory defeat implied at 2.0 * 2.53 = 5.06
Importantly that probability space can be occupied by May or AN Other Tory... Nevertheless we estimate it to be 19.76% from Betfair prices of Lab Most Seats and 2019 GE.
MayXit with no GE preceeding must be 1/1.435 - 0.1976 = 50% probability. This portion definitely excludes Corbyn as PM I think...
30% May gets through to the end of 2019.
What does all this mean ? I'm not sure - here might be some way to combine these probabilities to yield the 'correct' price (In terms of other prices) for Corbyn after MayExit 2019 though....
Requires further thought.
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.
Alone, alone, all, all alone,
Alone on a wide wide sea!
And never a saint took pity on
My soul in agony.
2) Brexit is going to have a lot of unpredictable effects.
While assorted Tories together represent a 5/6 chance that doesn't happen.
The only reason that Corbyn is favourite is because there's no unified Tory candidate.
... which I'm sure some self-pitying MPs would view as more stressful than having to deal with WWII.
Brown couldn’t hack it, even though he has been in a big job for years, as all of a sudden it is day in day out that you are expected to be constantly on the go.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1074724630500233218
Perhaps May thinks her MPs will be won round by two weeks in the capable hands of the activists and leadership of the Conservative Associations of darkest Leaverstan.
Perhaps May still believes in a magic EUCO Summit in January that's going to save her.
These are forlorn hopes, but this is a magical time of the year, and Mrs May's hopes spring eternal.
Is there any chance of anyone not voting on party lines or the current independents not all voting against the government?
This is a nice christmas surprise...
They would last about 9 months so the UK could sign proper bilaterals with individual EU countries.
More fuel to the Managed No Deal crowd.
Hertfordshire used to have a pretty good History faculty ten years ago. Don't know what it's like now.
If the DUP abstain then I believe she wins my pretty close to 1 vote. That's not hands down, it is embarrassingly close.
Plus there's nothing to stop Corbyn doing this again in January. And February. And March. I see no downside for him.
Interesting, but what happens if she loses?
If so the DUP should vote with Corbyn, against May. That's the ultimate logic of their position, especially if this is not an FTPA-binding vote. Doubt they will though, if Labour was led by someone less toxic (to them) they might have.
So the constitutional affairs committee believes May would have to resign if she lost.
All this tells me is that Corbyn is still mind-bendingly inept and disingenuous, but anyone who didn't know that already hasn't been paying attention.
I am not 100% convinced he does.
I am the very model of a Brexiteer-General,
I've less information than a vegetable, animal, or mineral,
I love the kings of England, and I fight the fights historical
From Amsterdam to Maastricht, in order categorical;
I'm ill acquainted, too, with matters mathematical,
For me all votes of confidence are problematical,
About the evils of Europe I'm teeming with a lot o' news, (bothered for a rhyme)
With many dismal facts about those awful remainers' views.
Wonder when/if this vote will take place? The Government has to grant it room in the timetable, apparently.
I would suggest this Occams' razor gives you the correct answer.
@MaryCreaghMP
BREAKING Jeremy Corbyn tables no confidence motion in the Government.”
Is Twitter designed as a mechanism for the ignorant to advertise their ignorance?
That isn't strategic thinking or planning.