politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader then clearly he has a good chance of becoming, at some stage, prime minister. The above active betting market is not about that but who is going to step into Theresa May shoes when she stands aside.
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And Primus, it would appear, Inter Pares, of course.
Well, thing is an early GE looks very probable and the Tories don't have time to switch to a new leader she may well still lead them unhappily into a GE whatever she says, and Corbyn follow her. I assume as leader and not on the deal though? Perhaps someone realised their temper tantrum and inventing constitutional norms to justify that tantrum was not a good look last week.
May I humbly suggest Sir Keir Starmer, Hillary Benn, Dominic Grieve, or Ken Clarke (pbuh).
Labour screwed up this afternoon. And this is a feeble attempt to pretend otherwise. No-one will buy it.
FPT: yeah, Mr. Jessop, you did a very good job, though. I had a quick think for improving the flow (when I beta read for other people I try to come up with suggestions as "this could be better", whilst accurate, isn't hugely helpful) but nothing came to mind.
You should repost it.
https://twitter.com/simon_price01/status/1074704052762611712
For what it's worth I think it's more likely the next general election will be fought between two entirely new leaders than between both Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May.
That's some revision of history - surprised she's getting away with it.
My favourite was a Leaver arguing the 80% figure then a few days later arguing that most voters don't read/know manifesto commitments.
https://twitter.com/SiDedman/status/1074712370746920961
It's why she is trying to avoid remain as an option of course. If people actually believed it was no deal vs deal they might back it.
She seems to be claiming incompetence as her defence.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1074637233674698752
It's not unusual that the defence puts points to the defendant so they can be denied.
It is important that the defendant's case is fully articulated, because a jury cannot invent an alternative defence for the defendant.
"And having once turned round walks on,
And turns no more his head;
Because he knows, a frightful fiend
Doth close behind him tread."
I'm not a lawyer, but I thought the deence barrister was on her side!
Incidentally, last week's BMG poll showing Remain leading 57/43 was misreported. That was a poll of all adults, including those ineligible to vote.
Their poll of all adults eligible to vote was 50.5/49.5.
Against him.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1072818742512508929
From here to the 14th January is a long time and during this time if polls show a continuing shift to a referendum and staying, conservative mps may face the real prospect of losing it all if they do not vote for TM deal
For no reason other than I thought I would see what 47-53 brought up when I stuck it in google.
https://twitter.com/BorisPicaninny/status/1074717613337530368
A GE now would almost certainly produce another powerless minority government unable to pass anything. But nevertheless I think either a referendum or GE, and quite possibly both, will occur in 2019.
Here's an example of lawyering you really don't want to see as a potential defendant:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-12-16-18-rudy-giuliani-sen/story?id=59840122
GIULIANI: I had this specific conversation with his lawyers and that liar can say what he wants, I told his lawyers there will be no discussion of a pardon. That doesn’t mean the president doesn’t have the -- nobody’s giving away any power, but do not consider it in your thinking now. It has nothing about what you should decide about yourself. I think that’s one of the reasons why he double-crossed....
Good old Rudy admits on national TV that he's been in talks with Cohen's lawyers about a potential pardon - and then goes on to suggest that Cohen dropped the dime on Trump when he was told a pardon wouldn't be forthcoming.
Win/win for them, I guess.
How scammers in China manipulate amazon
https://youtu.be/vOj-tRTbFfY
She is dead.
As I said before, I wouldn’t be surprised if she threw her brother under the bus (not pre-agreed to be clear). Family relations can be repaired. If she loses though, MP over, practicing certificate will go. From what one can see it’s not as if she has anything to fall back on. In practice her life as it is will be irrevocably over with no obvious alternative.
It’s a pretty easy choice. I’ve no doubt it would be true if she claimed it as lying to a court would not be helpful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFH-F6LUXIY