How many Tory MPs on the government payroll? If we assume they all voted for May (I know, I know), what was the split for the rest of the MPs?
True but those who were on the payroll and who couldn't support her have resigned one-by-one through the year, so it's wrong to to assume the backbenchers are an unbiased cohort.
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
If the 117 and the 10 DUP vote against that still gives an approximately 250 majority against the deal as it is.
And herein lies her "victory". Retains the leadership of 2/3rds of the party, with further numbers of her "supporters" already declared as voting against her deal.
She'll be dragged kicking and screaming to the Commons, forced to hold the vote knowing she will be utterly demolished. At which point what power does she have? What authority does she have?
It'll be an odd situation. Labour have to table a vote of no confidence. The DUP have to be tested as to what they will do in the face of a PM still trying to push through her deal.
If nothing else, there's absolutely no chance of anyone in Labour backing the deal in exchange for a GE when they think they can not back the deal and get a GE anyway.
How many Tory MPs on the government payroll? If we assume they all voted for May (I know, I know), what was the split for the rest of the MPs?
True but those who were on the payroll and who couldn't support her have resigned one-by-one through the year, so it's wrong to to assume the backbenchers are an unbiased cohort.
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
The national party can order that he not be the candidate. If the local Association resists, it will be dissolved and another candidate imposed.
She's safe for a year and will then try to brazen it out to the next election (her commitment not to fight another election is literally worthless) The only way we're getting rid her now is for the electorate to take matters into their own hands and vote her out (and even then she'll almost certainly try to squat in Downing St for days like Brown did)
Tell me that when the DUP pull the rug on her Brexit and agree to support Labour in a VNOC
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
Surely if the whip is withdrawn at the time of an election, he is effectively deselected?
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
Any Conservative MP voting against the government in a vote of confidence would expect to be kicked out of the party.
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
If he vnoc the government he is out, gone and deselected immediately. It is the most serious political act an mp can do against the party
17.4 million voting in a once in a generation referendum is not the same as an internal party vote of no confidence about their party leader.
No it isn't, but as was noted earlier even stupid arguments (and analogies) can work well, and it will be thrown back in the faces of those who complain constantly.
She's safe for a year and will then try to brazen it out to the next election (her commitment not to fight another election is literally worthless) The only way we're getting rid her now is for the electorate to take matters into their own hands and vote her out (and even then she'll almost certainly try to squat in Downing St for days like Brown did)
Tell me that when the DUP pull the rug on her Brexit and agree to support Labour in a VNOC
Well that's the (only) route to get Theresa May out - A general election.
Whether that happens in the New Year from VONC or in June 2022 I don't know... But its safe to assume May will be leading the Tories whenever that election happens and will lead them to absolute disaster.
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
He's just said there are no extremists in the Tory party.
As epic self-awareness fails go, that's up there with Corbyn's claim he wasn't racist, it was just the Jews are out to get him.
There is a tiny little bit of me that would like to see JRM as Tory leader in order to see just how disastrous it would be.
What is the difference between Mogg and Corbyn?
One is a posho who lives in the past, hangs out with dodgy characters, owes his position to his family and has never done a useful job, and is a Londoner who pretends to have links to the West Country.
And the other is Jacob Rees Mogg.
(Yes, I know Corbyn really was born in Chippenham, before anyone points it out.)
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
The worst possible result as it's the minimalist result. It takes the Letters off the table but absolutely nothing else. We need to start eliminating options and could have eliminated several today but only one has gone.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
If we’re doing kamikaze tactics could the Govt make supporting the deal a 3 line whip and suspend any who voted against, costing them their seats in the inevitable General Election which followed?
Almost worth it for the giggles. Of course many of them would stand as “Patriotic Independent Tories” splitting the Con vote and increasing the Labour majority, such is their self awareness....
To those saying they will respect the leadership vote, what does that actually mean in a practical sense? Given the backbenchers now literally have no way to apply pressure on the leader (The Cabinet can at least resign) other than voting against her in the Commons, which on the deal they will still do, what exactly does respecting the vote even entail? Not moaning about it?
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
He might have the whip withdrawn (although I doubt that very much) but he won’t be deselected.
If he vnoc the government he is out, gone and deselected immediately. It is the most serious political act an mp can do against the party
We live in serious times. Deselection is a matter for his association where he has rock solid support. If the Tories withdraw the whip they can run another candidate against him who might get one vote - his own.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Yes you get to choose what Sunday morning's thread is about, your choice is from one of the following
1) AV and why it is the greatest voting system in the world
2) Why pineapple pizza is the greatest evil in the universe
3) Why Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie
4) Why it's time for another Scottish peer as Prime Minister.
Your Grace, how could you doubt we would all vote for you?
I trust you are keeping well, by the way? We miss you.
My current bag book is "The Delirium Brief", in which the UK government fails to take seriously the threat of a Cthulhu apocalypse and is overthrown by an appalled Civil Service. The PM's successor is a polite, charismatic and utterly insane outer God who busies himself building a tower of skulls and reintroduces the death penalty to fill it.
The Civil Service nevertheless consider him an improvement.
Peston's a wanky shit-stirer for retweeting such nonsense.
He is a political "journalist" reporting or retweeting political news. Now personallly the ERG membership should be excluded from a sane Tory party but they don't have the luxury in numbers to do so (and May didn't have them in 2016 so the 2017 election isn't whole problem here)..
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
He cannot avoid tabling one, the government is too weak and too bereft of any direction to not test it.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
I think they're fearful of an election that makes No Deal even more likely as well, to be fair. That really would see them marmalised by their supporters.
JRM says he accepts the confidence vote result but Theresa May should still meet the queen and resign. That's not inconsistent, given that Tory leader and PM are different offices.
So will he vote against the government in a VONC in the Commons?
He will be deslected on the spot
Having publicly said Theresa May should resign as PM, he should vote no confidence in the government she leads if he gets the chance, or cross the floor of the House.
I doubt the cabinet will have the same composition it does now when the House rises on 20 Dec.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
Would he really turn down the keys to No 10 if offered?
Labour's membership, which represents the origin of the current leadership, is 85% for Remain. Labour MP's are vastly more tilted to remain than Tories. I can't see that happening.
Shame about the leadership who are trying to sit this out til after Brexit then.....
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Because Labour has a policy ladder and if fail to get a GE then they are committed to explore a 2nd referendum. And Corbyn is desperate to avoid that.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
He missed a stunning opportunity to say "Go, Nads".
Pause.
I am an adult, really...
You're on a website that ran a thread headlined 'Balls deep in trouble' when rumours were flying that Ed Balls was on the verge of losing Morley and Outwood.
I'm actually starting to hope that the DUP will run out of patience with May, go to Labour and propose that they vote together to finish this Government off now.
Then the parties can take their arguments for what to do next out to the people - and carry the can for their deeds and misdeeds - and the electorate can decide who they want to elect, who they want to throw out, and what they actually want.
If Parliament were to be dissolved by the end of this month then we could have a new Parliament and Government by mid-February. That's more than enough time for Parliament to vote to Remain if there's a clear majority for it, Leave with no deal if there's a clear majority for that, or to accept May's compromise if they're deadlocked. I think we'd probably end up staying in, which isn't what I voted for back in 2016 (though I think I'd probably prefer that to the May deal as it stands,) BUT at least we'd then have a Parliament and a Government with a sense of direction and a fresh mandate from the people. Moreover, the instructions and the personnel would come in one package - unlike the current situation, where a majority of politicians leaning in one direction are having fits over a referendum result pointing in the other. Finally, we could then get this bloody thing done.
Failing that, we're back to the status quo. So long as May won't change her position and her deal can't command a majority in Parliament, then we either end up with No Deal by default, or there has to be a political realignment to allow the Remain-leaning majority in the Commons to work together and call a halt to this process. This would require both the Conservative and Labour Parties to break apart in tandem, so No Deal seems much the more likely outcome at present.
What a cretin. I know what he presumably really means, that she doesn't have 'enough' support, but for gods sake did he not even hear the outcome of the vote?
She got more than 52%. Once again ERG think maths is subjective.
Yes you get to choose what Sunday morning's thread is about, your choice is from one of the following
1) AV and why it is the greatest voting system in the world
2) Why pineapple pizza is the greatest evil in the universe
3) Why Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie
4) Why it's time for another Scottish peer as Prime Minister.
Your Grace, how could you doubt we would all vote for you?
I trust you are keeping well, by the way? We miss you.
My current bag book is "The Delirium Brief", in which the UK government fails to take seriously the threat of a Cthulhu apocalypse and is overthrown by an appalled Civil Service. The PM's successor is a polite, charismatic and utterly insane outer God who busies himself building a tower of skulls and reintroduces the death penalty to fill it.
The Civil Service nevertheless consider him an improvement.
I'm beginning to see their point.
And the US in that story is in an even worse state than it is here.
I'm sure I posted this from that book's author earlier today
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
Not if he wins with a landslide.
In a landslide situation he can do whatever he wants - Much like Tony Blair was committed to getting rid of FPTP and giving Paddy a seat in the Cabinet... Until he saw that 180 majority and decided to sell the Lib-Dems and Roy Jenkins down the river.
Question: does a HoC VoNC have to be tabled by the official opposition, or can any MP do it?
(e.g. SNP? ERG?)
I would have thought any MP, given there wasn't officially 'an Opposition' until 1937.
Ok so why are the SNP urging Labour to table one?
I think the official Opposition would still have to move it. Something similar happened in March 1979 when the SNP initially tabled a VONC - which was then taken up by Thatcher.
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Peston's a wanky shit-stirer for retweeting such nonsense.
He is a political "journalist" reporting or retweeting political news. Now personallly the ERG membership should be excluded from a sane Tory party but they don't have the luxury in numbers to do so (and May didn't have them in 2016 so the 2017 election isn't whole problem here)..
So the Tory Momentum has started its ethnic cleansing has it. Good luck winning a GE on that basis.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
Not if he wins with a landslide.
In a landslide situation he can do whatever he wants - Much like Tony Blair was committed to getting rid of FPTP and giving Paddy a seat in the Cabinet... Until he saw that 180 majority and decided to sell the Lib-Dems and Roy Jenkins down the river.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Very simple.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
Would he really turn down the keys to No 10 if offered?
No. Maybe he will move it next week, but it does seem the best explanation is he is waiting for the vote on the deal before he does it for some reason.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
But he could have another go later on - if he fails first time. Thatcher made several attempts.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
We Leave with No Deal next March and Rejoin by 2030.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Because Labour has a policy ladder and if fail to get a GE then they are committed to explore a 2nd referendum. And Corbyn is desperate to avoid that.
Labour are going to end up back remain whether he likes it or not, and probably against his attempts. May may see us going to no deal whether she likes it or not, and very much against her attempts.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
it seems the third of MPs who want TM out represent 2/3 of the tory membership judging by the previous conhome poll
It also suggests 117 mainly ERG MPs would be enough to get Boris or Raab or another candidate to the membership when May finally does go before the next general election and they will likely then win the membership vote
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Your political views do seem to change fairly often, driven more by who's annoyed you recently rather than policy or real-world outcomes
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Surely the opportune time for any general election in Labour viewpoint is anytime when the election has to be held after a No Deal Brexit on March 30th.
I guess you ideally want the vote of No Confidence on March 1sr with an Election on say April 18th and the Tories can't campaign as they are firefighting the mess...
Question: does a HoC VoNC have to be tabled by the official opposition, or can any MP do it?
(e.g. SNP? ERG?)
I would have thought any MP, given there wasn't officially 'an Opposition' until 1937.
Ok so why are the SNP urging Labour to table one?
The official answer would be because it gets immediate parliamentary time if tabled by official opposition whereas it’s not debated urgently if tabled by someone else.
The real answer is that it would increase pressure on Labour to move to supporting 2nd ref if (when) they lose the vote in line with their conference position.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
But he could have another go later on - if he fails first time. Thatcher made several attempts.
No it's better for Labour to wait - Sooner or later May has got to put her miserable deal before the House and when she does it goes down in flames.
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Your political views do seem to change fairly often, driven more by who's annoyed you recently rather than policy or real-world outcomes
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
May's deal rejected, then No Deal panic.
And then? No Deal chaos or a last minute twist?
No Deal chaos.
Nothing has changed! it is the default. If nothing else happens then No Deal does.
Difficult to see why 117 Tory MPs wouldn’t support that or at least abstain. They can’t vote for May now without appearing total hypocrites.
A Commons VONC is in the government not the PM.
Doesn’t that depend upon the wording of the motion.
The FTPA prescribes exact wording: "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government."
There wouldn't be much point in using a different wording even if the Speaker were to allow it - which he almost certainly wouldn't - because a successful vote in favour would not be allowed to start the 14-day clock running. Parliament may not be dissolved except under the terms of the FTPA.
VONCing the PM, though - yes, why not? Individual government ministers have had VONCs against them in the Commons before now.
Comments
I hope your sedan chair is in good condition!
Must be stress
If nothing else, there's absolutely no chance of anyone in Labour backing the deal in exchange for a GE when they think they can not back the deal and get a GE anyway.
And it's a self selecting metric. Many of those who aren't payroll were until they resigned because of the deal.
Clinging on here. The Prime Minister and I have something in common !!
Difficult to see why 117 Tory MPs wouldn’t support that or at least abstain. They can’t vote for May now without appearing total hypocrites.
Whether that happens in the New Year from VONC or in June 2022 I don't know... But its safe to assume May will be leading the Tories whenever that election happens and will lead them to absolute disaster.
But she and they deserve nothing less...
One is a posho who lives in the past, hangs out with dodgy characters, owes his position to his family and has never done a useful job, and is a Londoner who pretends to have links to the West Country.
And the other is Jacob Rees Mogg.
(Yes, I know Corbyn really was born in Chippenham, before anyone points it out.)
(e.g. SNP? ERG?)
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
If he wins Corbyn will have to deliver on a second referendum, as an arch Brexiteer he's loathe to do that.
Almost worth it for the giggles. Of course many of them would stand as “Patriotic Independent Tories” splitting the Con vote and increasing the Labour majority, such is their self awareness....
The Civil Service nevertheless consider him an improvement.
I'm beginning to see their point.
It is like watching the delusional in the first round of X Factor.
I doubt the cabinet will have the same composition it does now when the House rises on 20 Dec.
Then the parties can take their arguments for what to do next out to the people - and carry the can for their deeds and misdeeds - and the electorate can decide who they want to elect, who they want to throw out, and what they actually want.
If Parliament were to be dissolved by the end of this month then we could have a new Parliament and Government by mid-February. That's more than enough time for Parliament to vote to Remain if there's a clear majority for it, Leave with no deal if there's a clear majority for that, or to accept May's compromise if they're deadlocked. I think we'd probably end up staying in, which isn't what I voted for back in 2016 (though I think I'd probably prefer that to the May deal as it stands,) BUT at least we'd then have a Parliament and a Government with a sense of direction and a fresh mandate from the people. Moreover, the instructions and the personnel would come in one package - unlike the current situation, where a majority of politicians leaning in one direction are having fits over a referendum result pointing in the other. Finally, we could then get this bloody thing done.
Failing that, we're back to the status quo. So long as May won't change her position and her deal can't command a majority in Parliament, then we either end up with No Deal by default, or there has to be a political realignment to allow the Remain-leaning majority in the Commons to work together and call a halt to this process. This would require both the Conservative and Labour Parties to break apart in tandem, so No Deal seems much the more likely outcome at present.
I'm sure I posted this from that book's author earlier today
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1072940739892576256
Perhaps the idea is to hammer both their opposition parties?
In a landslide situation he can do whatever he wants - Much like Tony Blair was committed to getting rid of FPTP and giving Paddy a seat in the Cabinet... Until he saw that 180 majority and decided to sell the Lib-Dems and Roy Jenkins down the river.
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
I knew she’d win. I was hoping she’d win c. 220-97 but we are where we are.
She know needs to secure a concession or two from the EU and build a cross party coalition to pass this whilst she has some authority from this vote.
I guess you ideally want the vote of No Confidence on March 1sr with an Election on say April 18th and the Tories can't campaign as they are firefighting the mess...
The real answer is that it would increase pressure on Labour to move to supporting 2nd ref if (when) they lose the vote in line with their conference position.
That's the moment to strike.
He said Rees Mogg and 117 others have no confidence in May.
Thank goodness, Crabb is on and talking sense.
It’s now a standard form of words thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011. Say thanks to Nick Clegg.
Any Conservative would have to cross the floor to vote for that motion.
Nothing has changed! it is the default. If nothing else happens then No Deal does.
There wouldn't be much point in using a different wording even if the Speaker were to allow it - which he almost certainly wouldn't - because a successful vote in favour would not be allowed to start the 14-day clock running. Parliament may not be dissolved except under the terms of the FTPA.
VONCing the PM, though - yes, why not? Individual government ministers have had VONCs against them in the Commons before now.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1072972240117993474