Labour's membership, which represents the origin of the current leadership, is 85% for Remain. Labour MP's are vastly more tilted to remain than Tories. I can't see that happening.
Shame about the leadership who are trying to sit this out til after Brexit then.....
Yes, although my response here was really about why the labour leadership would find it exceptionally difficult to back Theresa's deal as part of any quid pro quo.
I don't think we can entirely rely on what Mr Burgon says is the plan. I know Labour are deliberately emphasising different things to different audiences, but he's not exactly reliable is he?
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
May's deal rejected, then No Deal panic.
And then? No Deal chaos or a last minute twist?
No Deal chaos.
Nothing has changed! it is the default. If nothing else happens then No Deal does.
That makes no sense. Is he saying that Labour are determined to take us out?
Well it is officially their policy to at least attempt to take us out (Starmer can barely muster the effort to pretend that is his goal though - he will shortly say something to keep remainers on side).
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Your political views do seem to change fairly often, driven more by who's annoyed you recently rather than policy or real-world outcomes
Everyone's allowed to change his mind. But this 'Big G has given up on Theresa therefore it's all over for her' notion is getting a touch a irksome: he's given up on her - then returned to the fold - umpteen times as it is.
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
We Leave with No Deal next March and Rejoin by 2030.
I was hoping we would rejoin sooner than 2030, in actual fact approximately a decade sooner!
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
We Leave with No Deal next March and Rejoin by 2030.
how likely do you really think that is? surely she will just revoke article 50 to avoid no deal?
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Your political views do seem to change fairly often, driven more by who's annoyed you recently rather than policy or real-world outcomes
He is SeanT....£5 please?
Hah - I cannot think of two PBers more different than Big_G and SeanT (even if they do rhyme!)
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
That makes no sense. Is he saying that Labour are determined to take us out?
It means that we have to Leave no matter next March.
So why isn't he voting for the fecking deal?
Is he so stupid as to want no deal?
He, like the Tory leaver rebels (rather than the JoJo's and Grieve types), presumably thinks something else will come up and some different leave will be on offer. We can only hope he is right for once.
That makes no sense. Is he saying that Labour are determined to take us out?
It means that we have to Leave no matter next March.
So why isn't he voting for the fecking deal?
Is he so stupid as to want no deal?
No Deals means the Tories are out of power for a generation, it will be their Winter of Discontent with knobs on, which is excellent news for Labour and Corbyn.
Leaving without a deal means Corbyn won't be bound by state aid rules, a Corbyn wet dream.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Point of correction - fewer than 200 Tories, since some of those voting for May still oppose the deal I believe.
But one former LD will swing it though, as he's voting for it.
Edit: But why revoke A50? The only purpose of that is to make remain the default, and since a remain is to confirm if we leave or not revoking would seem to be prejudging the outcome. An extension would be appropriate.
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Gobsmacking isn't it? These ERG-ers are fucking dimwits. And I'm a Leaver.
It feels like May has increasing support from the public who are fed up of brexit dominating everything and just now want a resolution. Today's antics will only reinforce her position in the public eye.
Two days ago TM had lost my support but the antics of ERG have made it certain I will support her to Brexit. I expect by the late Spring she will announce a leadership contest over the normal 2-3 months with her successor in place by the 1st September
Indeed JRM and Peter Bone's comments tonight are simply absurd and they need isolating. Anna Soubry said tonight that in the 117 were several mps who want a second vote (did not name them but Jo Johnson comes to mind) and ERG celebration of their vote includes a number of those wanting brexit stopped.
Your political views do seem to change fairly often, driven more by who's annoyed you recently rather than policy or real-world outcomes
Not really. I have always been anti ERG but TM stopping the vote and going to the EU was a mistake. However, my preferred outcome would be to defer a vnoc as I did not want her to be locked in place for 12 months. As TM is in place it is entirely reasonable to support her through brexit. It has always been TM deal first or remain for me
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Gobsmacking isn't it? These ERG-ers are fucking dimwits. And I'm a Leaver.
If they're that stupid and fucking dimwits, you worry about the children...
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
We Leave with No Deal next March and Rejoin by 2030.
I was hoping we would rejoin sooner than 2030, in actual fact approximately a decade sooner!
We're not leaving at all, do not worry. A referendum remains the only conceivable if still hard way of breaking through this. May can now offer it without being removed (although Cabinet Members might quit) and it is the only way she has any chance, and though he wouldn't immediately get his GE Corbyn would be doing what his members wanted and he would be under immense pressure to accept that offer.
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Gobsmacking isn't it? These ERG-ers are fucking dimwits. And I'm a Leaver.
I couldn’t agree more. You wonder, to misquote Ed Miliband, if there is anything they can actually organise in a brewery
That makes no sense. Is he saying that Labour are determined to take us out?
It means that we have to Leave no matter next March.
So why isn't he voting for the fecking deal?
Is he so stupid as to want no deal?
No Deals means the Tories are out of power for a generation, it will be their Winter of Discontent with knobs on, which is excellent news for Labour and Corbyn.
Leaving without a deal means Corbyn won't be bound by state aid rules, a Corbyn wet dream.
How long could Corbyn last though leading a No Deal Labour government? Most likely he would either be forced by his MPs or his reliance on the SNP and maybe the LDs to go for permanent single market and customs union or have to call EUref2
Is it possible to raise an amendment to the MV which would make it's approval conditional on it gaining support at a referendum?
I am fairly confident this will happen and of course if it becomes the meaningful vote, TM can simply say the HOC have voted for a referendum and she will put down the legislation. The irony is that ERG have blown their 48 letters now, rather than keeping their powder dry for this moment
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
He's probably representative of the view of a majority in the country tbf.
Edit: but hang on a minute - what were you doing in a cab? I thought you were an Uber-mensch?
Yes, I think so. Tory MPs who don't vote for the deal are opening the door to remain or no deal, both are sub optimal for the future of country and party.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
Of course you would, it's a remainer fantasy. The only thing missing is Anothernick's persistent alarm clock waking him up just as he was leading the remain victory parade.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
I have heard similar sentiments either get on with it or don't. But it is not as easy as that if the UK carries on with it even if by some miracle her Deal was validated by parliament. The trade talks and future relationship negotiations could go on for years!
Is it possible to raise an amendment to the MV which would make it's approval conditional on it gaining support at a referendum?
I am fairly confident this will happen and of course if it becomes tbe meaningful vote, TM can simpy say the HOC have voted for a referendum and she will put down tbe legislation. The irony is that ERG have blown their 48 letters now, rather than keeping their powder dry.
The one thing they do not deserve being criticised for is 'blowing' their letters now. If this is about principle the line was crossed for them a long time ago and they had to put them in to register their discontent, otherwise, well, you get the situation we have now where it is probably too late to change direction but also we cannot move forward.
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Timetable:
May delays Deal vote until last possible day: January 21st Deal goes down in flames Corbyn tables an immediate VoNC, which takes place in January 22nd
* If the DUP sticks with the Government, he fails * If the DUP switches sides, he succeeds
If he succeeds then we have a pantomime for a fortnight whilst we wait for the clock to run down on the FTPA (Note: this might provide the Tories with breathing room to crown a successor to May unopposed. Otherwise, they are stuck with her)
The pantomime ends and Parliament can be dissolved on or after February 5th.
The FPTA states that Parliament must be dissolved 25 working days before the date of the General Election (and now I'm relying on Wikipedia, so hopefully this is accurate,) which would suggest a likely election date of March 14th, i.e. the first Thursday after 25 days has passed (the Easter break isn't til April so doesn't get in the way.)
That would leave an incoming Parliament and Government a fortnight in which to revoke A50 and guillotine the necessary bills through Parliament to repeal the Brexit legislation. Personally I think that Corbyn would rather we left, but if he does end up winning an election (or at any rate getting close enough to rule with SNP votes) on a Remain manifesto (or even on resetting the A50 clock and then embarking on a unicorn renegotiation strategy that can be given up on at a later date,) i.e. effectively cancelling Brexit, then that would make a great many both of his devoted supporters and his restive backbenchers very, very happy and grateful.
In short, it's a very tight timetable but it is doable. Unfortunately for committed Remainers, it would also be unbelievably risky for them to have to rely on such a chain of events. They might fancy their chances of winning a snap election, but if the DUP simply decides to sit on its hands and let the clock run down once they are rid of their hated backstop then they get nothing...
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards?
Is that a viable strategy? I mean, perhaps he wouldn't do that because he really does want to get out of the EU, and allow the Government to take the fall for buggering up No Deal, before striking? Or is there something else obvious I'm missing here?
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
And how do you avoid the general public going for the f**k you leave option....
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
Anecdote Alert:
Visited a friend in Cornwall over the weekend - very much of the working-class reactionary variety but a smart guy nonetheless. Said he'd voted Leave (which didn't surprise me) and voted Conservative at the last the last GE (which very much did). Said he regrets both decisions because of the f*ck up the Tories have made of Brexit. (And, yes, he's a bit of a Nazi.)
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Gobsmacking isn't it? These ERG-ers are fucking dimwits. And I'm a Leaver.
Hear hear!
I hope Theresa May puts Brexit to bed after this week for a month. Let the narcissists stew in their own juices as the CBI, Bank Of England, Nissan etc start to get jumpy.
At my local carol service this evening there was an Elizabethan prayer for a calm and thoughtful Parliament (that could have been written this morning) and the reverend showed me a map of Britain on the wall at the back, that he is encouraging his parishioners touch while they send positive prayers. He said it's something they usually do for third world countries "but many people told me our own needs it right now".
Is it possible to raise an amendment to the MV which would make it's approval conditional on it gaining support at a referendum?
I am fairly confident this will happen and of course if it becomes the meaningful vote, TM can simply say the HOC have voted for a referendum and she will put down the legislation. The irony is that ERG have blown their 48 letters now, rather than keeping their powder dry for this moment
I think that the ERG are what Monty Python had in mind for the Upper Class Twit of the Year sketch
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
He is going to be disappointed. This May Deal that he clings to is just the overture. The main section hasn't even started, and the same dynamic will apply over Ireland and Customs Union, whether Deal or No Deal. We have years of this to go.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
And how do you avoid the general public going for the f**k you leave option....
Don't put it on the ballot
Or more seriously, if 'Leave with No Deal' was on the ballot and the public voted for it, so be it - no one can say they weren't warned!
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
It's probably representative of a majority in the country tbf.
I think so. I reckon it has percolated through to the average voter, finally, that Brexit is REALLY REALLY FUCKING DIFFICULT TO DO. And this awkward, clumsy, rather embarrassing, but fairly clever and sincerely honest woman is doing her best to deliver it.
Remainers have nowhere else to go, Leavers must grudgingly suck it up.
She will deliver a pisspoor soggy Brexit, but likely it's the best we can do for now. Nothing is forever and we can do something better, later. Let her do her boring job.
I think that is the mind-set of Middle Britain, as of this evening.
Too bad it won't filter through to MPs. Leavers, the hardest ones, refuse to suck it up. Remainers are so close to getting a referendum they are convinced they will win that they can taste it, they are not backing down either.
I think the next big move is the governmental vote of no confidence. The DUP and ERG will be put to the test, particularly depending on what the government sets out as its planned course of action
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards? ?
Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
It's probably representative of a majority in the country tbf.
I think so. I reckon it has percolated through to the average voter, finally, that Brexit is REALLY REALLY FUCKING DIFFICULT TO DO. And this awkward, clumsy, rather embarrassing, but fairly clever and sincerely honest woman is doing her best to deliver it.
Remainers have nowhere else to go, Leavers must grudgingly suck it up.
She will deliver a pisspoor soggy Brexit, but likely it's the best we can do for now. Nothing is forever and we can do something better, later. Let her do her boring job.
I think that is the mind-set of Middle Britain, as of this evening.
Too bad it won't filter through to MPs. Leavers, the hardest ones, refuse to suck it up. Remainers are so close to getting a referendum they are convinced they will win that they can taste it, they are not backing down either.
I think the next big move is the governmental vote of no confidence. The DUP and ERG will be put to the test, particularly depending on what the government sets out as its planned course of action
I don't quite understand Labour's hesitancy in calling for a VONC. At the end od the day it is a tactic that can be repeated if it fails on the first attempt - as Thatcher showed in the late 1970s.I also recall Callaghan as Opposition Leader tabling such a motion against Thatcher in 1980 despite the fact that she had a majority of 43.
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards? ?
Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
He could argue that he could sort his kind of Brexit out during the transition period once he is PM.
Next you will be telling us that jezza doesn’t even know the login credentials to his own twitter account...
If only Donald Trump didn't. Think how much safer we would all be.
I seem to recall reading that he actually dictates his tweets. Pity the person whose job it is type out that guff.
Though given his 3am, just been taking a nightime piss, tweets, perhaps he really does write them.
Someone analysed his tweets and concluded Trump used Siri to dictate tweets.
It would explain a lot of his phonetic typos.
Siri, another crap Apple product....
Am not keen on Siri.
It struggles with my working class Yorkshire accent.
To be fair, all the voice assistants are shit. Just some are shitter than others. Kinda of like current political situation.
Google is reasonably decent at some voice controls to be used handsfree while driving. Eg changing destination on the satnav or changing music. Or setting an alarm or reminder.
Don't really use a voice assistant for anything else.
Andrew Bridgen really is an idiot isn't he? He doesn't seem to understand a thing. He's saying a vote he called at the wrong moment in the wrong way has solved nothing.
Gobsmacking isn't it? These ERG-ers are fucking dimwits. And I'm a Leaver.
Hear hear!
I hope Theresa May puts Brexit to bed after this week for a month. Let the narcissists stew in their own juices as the CBI, Bank Of England, Nissan etc start to get jumpy.
Except, in defence of the ERG, it is not just them who are the problem. While they are fewer Tory ultra remainers and the few Labour figures who might be tempted to vote for the deal are also against mean a deal falls even if the majority of the ERG came on board, though it would be much closer.
Is it possible to raise an amendment to the MV which would make it's approval conditional on it gaining support at a referendum?
I am fairly confident this will happen and of course if it becomes tbe meaningful vote, TM can simpy say the HOC have voted for a referendum and she will put down tbe legislation. The irony is that ERG have blown their 48 letters now, rather than keeping their powder dry.
The one thing they do not deserve being criticised for is 'blowing' their letters now. If this is about principle the line was crossed for them a long time ago and they had to put them in to register their discontent, otherwise, well, you get the situation we have now where it is probably too late to change direction but also we cannot move forward.
The final straw for many, after the original draft backstop, the EU draft backstop, the Chequers suggestion and then the final WA, was when the Parliamentary vote got pulled. She should have let it run and taken the 200 vote defeat, using that to extract concessions from the EU.
That she pulled the vote (then flew around Europe being told to f.off) looked like it was more about her own self-preservation than getting the best deal in the national interest.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
And how do you avoid the general public going for the f**k you leave option....
Don't put it on the ballot
Or more seriously, if 'Leave with No Deal' was on the ballot and the public voted for it, so be it - no one can say they weren't warned!
They were warned before the referendum and did not believe the warnings. They were correct not to do so. The doom mongers are struggling for credibility now.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
It's probably representative of a majority in the country tbf.
I think so. I reckon it has percolated through to the average voter, finally, that Brexit is REALLY REALLY FUCKING DIFFICULT TO DO. And this awkward, clumsy, rather embarrassing, but fairly clever and sincerely honest woman is doing her best to deliver it.
Remainers have nowhere else to go, Leavers must grudgingly suck it up.
She will deliver a pisspoor soggy Brexit, but likely it's the best we can do for now. Nothing is forever and we can do something better, later. Let her do her boring job.
I think that is the mind-set of Middle Britain, as of this evening.
Bloody hell - we really are in uncharted waters - I agree with every word of that post!
Still looking like No Deal will be the eventual outcome.
For which May and Hammond have been totally negligent in failing to prepare for.
If no deal does turn out to be a disaster do you really believe that 24 months extra planning would have turned into into a rip-roaring success? I just can't see it and I think it's just hardliners getting their excuses in early.
Expect a deal with Labour to be cut over Christmas such that they abstain in the MV vote in January 'in the greater national interest'... with, coincidentally, a GE offered for after Brexit day and May to step down having completed her mission.
The Cons will think they have a good chance in a Spring GE with Brexit (ok BINO) delivered and a new leader.
Labour (leadership) have convinced themselves they can't possibly lose a GE.
So everyone will support it.
That is a bigger fantasy than a successful Brexit. The chances of Labour helping May's deal through are nil.
Nobody would trust May to keep her word on any such deal were it to be offered, which it won't be. And for most Labour members, Corbyn particularly, doing any form of deal about anything with the Tories would be anathema.
So how will events pan out then?
Mays deal will never come back to the Commons because there will never be enough support for it. It died the moment Raab resigned and nothing can now be done to resurrect it. Tonight's vote shows that it could command at most 200 Tories and a very small handful of opposition members. So we will drift forward whilst May fiddles around pretending that she can come up with a few tweaks that will miraculously make it acceptable until early next year when people will begin to realise that the cliff edge is real and we are careering toward it without anyone in the driving seat. Then there will be panic and demands for a second referendum will become irresistible. Labour, and a significant number of Tories, will swing behind the idea. Parliament will revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum which will result in a vote to remain.
Well, I'd jump at that outcome. Just not sure who would table the bills to revoke A50 and hold a referendum in that scenario? TMay?
Worth remembering we can't revoke article 50 to do this. We can only revoke it if the CJEU think we actually intend to stay, or we can convince the EU27 to unanimously agree to restart the clock.
What I still don’t understand is how May and her team, and the EU cannot see that the backstop is an affront to natural justice. It is kafkaesque to be signed up to a legal agreement before a negotiation where you cannot leave unless both parties agree, and the only time the legal agreement would come into force is if you are in disagreement!
Next you will be telling us that jezza doesn’t even know the login credentials to his own twitter account...
If only Donald Trump didn't. Think how much safer we would all be.
I seem to recall reading that he actually dictates his tweets. Pity the person whose job it is type out that guff.
Though given his 3am, just been taking a nightime piss, tweets, perhaps he really does write them.
Someone analysed his tweets and concluded Trump used Siri to dictate tweets.
It would explain a lot of his phonetic typos.
Siri, another crap Apple product....
Am not keen on Siri.
It struggles with my working class Yorkshire accent.
To be fair, all the voice assistants are shit. Just some are shitter than others. Kinda of like current political situation.
Google is reasonably decent at some voice controls to be used handsfree while driving. Eg changing destination on the satnav or changing music. Or setting an alarm or reminder.
Don't really use a voice assistant for anything else.
Google have the best tech, but all of them are limited to specific settings and wants commands in particular format. I just find it way easier to click buttons.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
It's probably representative of a majority in the country tbf.
I think so. I reckon it has
Too bad it won't filter through to MPs. Leavers, the hardest ones, refuse to suck it up. Remainers are so close to getting a referendum they are convinced they will win that they can taste it, they are not backing down either.
I think the next big move is the governmental vote of no confidence. The DUP and ERG will be put to the test, particularly depending on what the government sets out as its planned course of action
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards? ?
Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
He could argue that he could sort his kind of Brexit out during the transition period once he is PM.
But that might lose him remain votes.
Now, in actual fact he's held on to them very well considering there was an actual party for remain/rejoin in 2017, but if we crash out he can pretend (or rather Starmer can) to remain voters that Labour would have given them the chance to remain if they could, and pretend to leavers he would have gotten the most unicorny brexit they want. Pass the deal and clearly he cannot do either completely, and at best he can tell people his post leave policies will be better.
Maybe it'd still work, but it feels like a political gamble he would not want to take after riding the fence this long.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
He's probably representative of the view of a majority in the country tbf.
Edit: but hang on a minute - what were you doing in a cab? I thought you were an Uber-mensch?
Yes, I think so. Tory MPs who don't vote for the deal are opening the door to remain or no deal
May's deal IS Remain?
No it leaves the EU and ends free movement but I know the only Brexit you will be happy with is a purist No Deal
No I would be happy with the deal without the backstop.
We can't find ourselves in a situation where the only way we can truly leave is for the EU to give us permission to leave or to sacrifice NI - That leaves us worse than the position we're currently in as we can (in theory) leave through A50 as members of the EU.
What I still don’t understand is how May and her team, and the EU cannot see that the backstop is an affront to natural justice. It is kafkaesque to be signed up to a legal agreement before a negotiation where you cannot leave unless both parties agree, and the only time the legal agreement would come into force is if you are in disagreement!
Being cynical, what makes you think they (or the one side insisting upon it anyway) cannot see that it is such an affront? If their interests are secured by it, or they believe that, natural justice can go hang.
Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
But surely if the WA is allowed through the Commons just the once then Brexit cannot be completed? It needs to be passed as an Act of Parliament. The Lords could veto it - if they bothered to debate it at all, which they probably wouldn't if the Government were brought down the following day.
It would be perfectly obvious that Corbyn had used a procedural device to force the hand of the DUP to get his majority for the confidence vote, but, you know, low politics happens. Once the Deal was safely in the grave and the starting pistol had been fired on the election, Labour could promise to handle Brexit in whatever way they saw fit if it won. I don't think that would be nailed on, but they'd be in with a good chance.
taxidriver from SW1 to NW1 as we heard the result (he was listening intently):
"Good. Just let her carry on, with Brexit, and get over it. Enough."
She has the average voter on her side, I reckon. (and yes yes, London cabbies are Nazis)
It's probably representative of a majority in the country tbf.
I think so. I reckon it has
Too bad it won't filter through to MPs. Leavers, the hardest ones, refuse to suck it up. Remainers are so close to getting a referendum they are convinced they will win that they can taste it, they are not backing down either.
I think the next big move is the governmental vote of no confidence. The DUP and ERG will be put to the test, particularly depending on what the government sets out as its planned course of action
Jezza is waiting for the deal to go down in flames... That's most opportune moment to have a VONC. He's being very, very smart.
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards? ?
Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
He could argue that he could sort his kind of Brexit out during the transition period once he is PM.
But that might lose him remain votes.
Now, in actual fact he's held on to them very well considering there was an actual party for remain/rejoin in 2017, but if we crash out he can pretend (or rather Starmer can) to remain voters that Labour would have given them the chance to remain if they could, and pretend to leavers he would have gotten the most unicorny brexit they want. Pass the deal and clearly he cannot do either completely, and at best he can tell people his post leave policies will be better.
Maybe it'd still work, but it feels like a political gamble he would not want to take after riding the fence this long.
I am not sure Labour would really want to have to deal with a No Deal Brexit economy though. Sure they could blame the Tories but they'd still find themselves shafted.
Comments
With the Withdrawal Act we Leave no matter what next March, unless it is repealed.
Is he so stupid as to want no deal?
https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1072962492605890562
One shudders to think of the minimum standard of intelligence for a Beeb journalist. It's almost as low as that of a shadow Minister.
Leaving without a deal means Corbyn won't be bound by state aid rules, a Corbyn wet dream.
Nor is he Sugar sweetening matters for Corbyn.
But one former LD will swing it though, as he's voting for it.
Edit: But why revoke A50? The only purpose of that is to make remain the default, and since a remain is to confirm if we leave or not revoking would seem to be prejudging the outcome. An extension would be appropriate.
Most ministers do not write their own tweets.
They are written and published by an adviser.
tic toc.
OK.
*A Manchester synonym for white coats.
Edit: but hang on a minute - what were you doing in a cab? I thought you were an Uber-mensch?
Though given his 3am, just been taking a nightime piss, tweets, perhaps he really does write them.
May delays Deal vote until last possible day: January 21st
Deal goes down in flames
Corbyn tables an immediate VoNC, which takes place in January 22nd
* If the DUP sticks with the Government, he fails
* If the DUP switches sides, he succeeds
If he succeeds then we have a pantomime for a fortnight whilst we wait for the clock to run down on the FTPA (Note: this might provide the Tories with breathing room to crown a successor to May unopposed. Otherwise, they are stuck with her)
The pantomime ends and Parliament can be dissolved on or after February 5th.
The FPTA states that Parliament must be dissolved 25 working days before the date of the General Election (and now I'm relying on Wikipedia, so hopefully this is accurate,) which would suggest a likely election date of March 14th, i.e. the first Thursday after 25 days has passed (the Easter break isn't til April so doesn't get in the way.)
That would leave an incoming Parliament and Government a fortnight in which to revoke A50 and guillotine the necessary bills through Parliament to repeal the Brexit legislation. Personally I think that Corbyn would rather we left, but if he does end up winning an election (or at any rate getting close enough to rule with SNP votes) on a Remain manifesto (or even on resetting the A50 clock and then embarking on a unicorn renegotiation strategy that can be given up on at a later date,) i.e. effectively cancelling Brexit, then that would make a great many both of his devoted supporters and his restive backbenchers very, very happy and grateful.
In short, it's a very tight timetable but it is doable. Unfortunately for committed Remainers, it would also be unbelievably risky for them to have to rely on such a chain of events. They might fancy their chances of winning a snap election, but if the DUP simply decides to sit on its hands and let the clock run down once they are rid of their hated backstop then they get nothing...
Shit - could Corbyn whip his lot to abstain on the Deal, so it passes on Government votes alone, and then use the DUP to kill the Government afterwards?
Is that a viable strategy? I mean, perhaps he wouldn't do that because he really does want to get out of the EU, and allow the Government to take the fall for buggering up No Deal, before striking? Or is there something else obvious I'm missing here?
Visited a friend in Cornwall over the weekend - very much of the working-class reactionary variety but a smart guy nonetheless. Said he'd voted Leave (which didn't surprise me) and voted Conservative at the last the last GE (which very much did). Said he regrets both decisions because of the f*ck up the Tories have made of Brexit. (And, yes, he's a bit of a Nazi.)
I hope Theresa May puts Brexit to bed after this week for a month. Let the narcissists stew in their own juices as the CBI, Bank Of England, Nissan etc start to get jumpy.
It would explain a lot of his phonetic typos.
It struggles with my working class Yorkshire accent.
Or more seriously, if 'Leave with No Deal' was on the ballot and the public voted for it, so be it - no one can say they weren't warned!
I think the next big move is the governmental vote of no confidence. The DUP and ERG will be put to the test, particularly depending on what the government sets out as its planned course of action Theoretically yes, politically I don't see how he can justify it - he claims to want to renegotiate, then lets it pass? He wants to hold onto remain votes, but lets Brexit occur? Yes he might still win a GE in that situation, but you can see why they'll go the no confidence route to get a GE I think.
Don't really use a voice assistant for anything else.
That she pulled the vote (then flew around Europe being told to f.off) looked like it was more about her own self-preservation than getting the best deal in the national interest.
The only options are
1. this deal
2. no deal
3. no Brexit
No deal is probably favourite because it is the default, but May might revoke Article 50 before it happens.
Which means no Brexit
This deal is least likely. Nobody likes it, although it is the only practical form of Brexit available.
Assuming the deal crashes and burns in the HoC, if Labour win a VONC and an election beckons, what does each party put in the manifesto?
Are Labour pro-Brexit or not?
Can the Tories write a single manifesto they can all stand on?
Do the Lib Dems matter?
Bloody hell - we really are in uncharted waters - I agree with every word of that post!
Never saw that coming
Now, in actual fact he's held on to them very well considering there was an actual party for remain/rejoin in 2017, but if we crash out he can pretend (or rather Starmer can) to remain voters that Labour would have given them the chance to remain if they could, and pretend to leavers he would have gotten the most unicorny brexit they want. Pass the deal and clearly he cannot do either completely, and at best he can tell people his post leave policies will be better.
Maybe it'd still work, but it feels like a political gamble he would not want to take after riding the fence this long.
No I would be happy with the deal without the backstop.
We can't find ourselves in a situation where the only way we can truly leave is for the EU to give us permission to leave or to sacrifice NI - That leaves us worse than the position we're currently in as we can (in theory) leave through A50 as members of the EU.
It would be perfectly obvious that Corbyn had used a procedural device to force the hand of the DUP to get his majority for the confidence vote, but, you know, low politics happens. Once the Deal was safely in the grave and the starting pistol had been fired on the election, Labour could promise to handle Brexit in whatever way they saw fit if it won. I don't think that would be nailed on, but they'd be in with a good chance.
Some fudge in political statement