Labour would abolish Thatcher-era laws preventing workers in the UK from taking industrial action in solidarity with their counterparts in other countries, the shadow chancellor has announced.
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
If the deal goes down, we will have a hard Brexit and five years of this. Best of luck everyone.
If that's the case, and we are facing this in mid March then the only sensible option is revoking A50 (depending on Monday). That's a much better backstop than all the other ones discussed....
Ideally there is a deal in the meantime but revocation (to rethink out position vis a vis Europe) is clearly better than no deal in that scenario. Anyone longing for no deal is bonkers.
No that will destroy the Tory party and usher in Labour and this madness.
The only solution is to just get on with it one way or another, put Brexit behind us (no matter what happens it won't be as bad as the Chicken Licken's fear) and get on with taking the fight to this socialist madness.
Not all of us care about the Tory party. The current set up is madness too, so what is there to lose?
There's no madness so bad that it can't be made worse by McDonnell and Corbyn.
Well the Tories will need to come up next time with something more convincing than threatening us with chaos and coalition.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
You've really bought into the Doom Porn, haven't you?
Not Doom Porn, Doom reality. No Deal would make the Poll Tax look popular within a year
If we stayed in the EU, that could lead to its own problems.
There was an interesting piece by Philip Collins in the Times yesterday, arguing that the only way that Theresa May can get a parliamentary majority for her deal, or something like it, is to get parliament to close off one of the other possibilities (referendum or no deal). His reasoning was that getting it down to two possibilities would force a sufficient number of those currently against her deal to accept it as a compromise to avoid the other outcome.
I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
I'm suh.
Only one nation needs to agree to resolve the backstop. Square the Republic of Ireland and you square the EU. As much as France and Spain and others have concerns of their own the backstop is only in for the Republic.
While I wish the Irish no ill will I was kind of hoping if they were going to bend the EU would bend on the backstop, since it is not as though it is in our interests to make things difficult on that border anyway, but so far they have resisted fiercely. I have thought all along the EU negotiators have made the same mistake many remain campaigners continue to make in assuming no 'sane' person would want no deal, or care to risk it, and so overplay their hand in respect of what is politically achievable in the UK. No, I don't expect favours from the EU, but as the stronger party in these negotiations they have more flexibility if they want to see a deal, as our very weakness, politically, makes accepting compromises harder.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
A large slice of the electorate support each of the options. To engineer it off a referendum ballot which is to decide the future course of the country, just because you don't like it, doesn't seem terribly democratic to me.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
As I keep saying, it's not me you need to convince. Just look at the parliamentary numbers. The number of MPs prepared to countenance No Deal is probably less than 100. The rest think it would be an unmitigated disaster.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
It gives us complete flexibility as to whether we want to be dictated to by China or the USA in any trade deal yes while we trash our economy at home
There is no evidence for that at all. You are just scaremongering based upon being browbeaten by the EU.
Yes, hard Brexit plus Corbyn could see the end of our stable and prosperous democracy. Most people in most societies bout to hit disaster had no idea what was about to occur. My more optimistic take is that there isn't a significant revolutionary cadre in the UK and that one cannot be created before Corbyn / McDonell would lose power. I also don't think that depite the state of the Tories there is a high probability of a Labour majority at next election. Still, worrrying times for democratic pragmatists.
Nowadays, I try not to worry about anything related to politics, and to act merely as an interested observer. After all, it's not as if any of us has any power to affect any of it. There is, literally, no point in being worried about anything you have no influence over. It's like worrying about the inevitability of your own eventual death....
There are a number of steps one can take to delay the likely date of that.
And if everyone took such a fatalistic attitude, no one would campaign for anything. (Which admittedly has its attractions.)
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
Maybe. I suspect that it's just an excuse, TBH (except for the DUP, which is an important exception). But it is certainly true that if MPs are looking for an excuse to row back from their positions, something on the backstop would be the best fig-leaf to deploy.
(Apologies for the bizarre mixture of metaphors!)
The backstop isn't an excuse it is truly hated. In a way I don't think Varadkar or Barnier took seriously.
Other issues exist but nothing like as serious. For other issues compromises have been made that will be swallowed but this can't be.
Are Varadkar and Barnier willing to back down? If they can they can solve and save the deal.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
A large slice of the electorate support each of the options. To engineer it off a referendum ballot which is to decide the future course of the country, just because you don't like it, doesn't seem terribly democratic to me.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
As I keep saying, it's not me you need to convince. Just look at the parliamentary numbers. The number of MPs prepared to countenance No Deal is probably less than 100. The rest think it would be an unmitigated disaster.
I'm aware of that. I'm just surprised it hasn't occurred to them that their attitude risks it happening anyway.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
It gives us complete flexibility as to whether we want to be dictated to by China or the USA in any trade deal yes while we trash our economy at home
There is no evidence for that at all. You are just scaremongering based upon being browbeaten by the EU.
Nope I am not scaremongering, No Deal will lead to no trade agreement with our largest market and at best free trade terms dictated to us by our next largest markets China and the USA while seeing the worst recession for decades, No Dealers who deny that are completely deluded
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
That is not the aim. The aim is to win, be it no deal, deal or remain. All will have different levels of grief to follow such an outcome, none will be sunshine and roses afterwards, but MPs aren't thinking of aftermaths, only victory.
Uniting people is just a stock phrase to politicians, they believe it on a personal level but their very chance to hold/gain power is based on wanting to disunite people, at least the sections not firmly in their camp, so it certainly is not ever an actual aim. Coming together just means people putting up with the winner.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
You've really bought into the Doom Porn, haven't you?
Not Doom Porn, Doom reality. No Deal would make the Poll Tax look popular within a year
If we stayed in the EU, that could lead to its own problems.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
With even HY abandoning Boris, his ship truly has sailed.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
MPs are realists and can count.
If the vote goes down by triple figures as expected then May has 2 choices. She either faces reality and resigns or faces reality and says the deal needs to be renegotiated regardless of what anyone said before the vote. If she says she will renegotiate she might be given a chance to stay on but it might be too little too late.
If she carries on with nothing has changed then she will be forced out.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
What do you think May is going to do after Tuesday, assuming she does not resign or face a vote of no confidence? She will have to propose something she previously said was a bad idea, like a referendum, or something she said was impossible, like renegotiating.
If even May will have to switch course like that to survive, then why would MPs in a theoretical vote not just go with someone who actually believes what they say on the topic? If May is going to attempt a fruitless negotiation, might as well go with someone else.
May's deal might well be all that is realistically on option. But parliament is not acting realistically, nor is the party. They might ditch her, find she was right, and regret their action. But what more can she actually achieve as PM? She cannot get her deal through. She cannot get a new deal. She cannot get anything through as the DUP will continue to oppose her.
I totally agree others are not in a good position to actually achieve more. But May can not even credibly attempt it. She has nothing more to offer, nothing more to give. It's time for her, and you, to throw in the towell. They'll try to renegotiate, and if they fail the new leader will have to face the same problems. But for May, the fight is nearly over. There is no benefit to the country or to her to keep going.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
That is not the aim. The aim is to win, be it no deal, deal or remain. All will have different levels of grief to follow such an outcome, none will be sunshine and roses afterwards, but MPs aren't thinking of aftermaths, only victory.
Uniting people is just a stock phrase to politicians, they believe it on a personal level but their very chance to hold/gain power is based on wanting to disunite people, at least the sections not firmly in their camp, so it certainly is not ever an actual aim. Coming together just means people putting up with the winner.
You are possibly right - but it is probably the best chance for either May Dealers or Remainers to get what they want (the No Dealers think they can achieve their ends by way of what is effectively a filibuster - and it's arguably the only way they can).
Surely is just a spoiler to try and queer Farage's pitch for tomorrow; there is no love lost between Sked and Farage
This will be the third party he has founded. After he left UKIP he founded the New Deal Party which was supposed to be a left of centre Eurosceptic party.
Prodi may be right that the EU will try and not avoid full scale tariff war with the UK but to all intents and purposes No Deal would soon mean some tariffs and the worst recession in the UK for decades, chaos at the ports, shortages of food and medicines, riots in short order and Sturgeon likely pushing for independence as well as severe problems at the Irish border.
That is why if May's Deal goes down as Rudd makes clear the Cabinet is moving towards Norway plus Customs Union which would be the only sane Brexit left, though with free movement required clearly worse than May's Deal
In an age of floating exchange rates, tariffs are not the threat to trade that non tariff barriers are.
There would be plenty of non tariff barriers with No Deal too. No Deal followed most likely by PM Corbyn would trash the UK's reputation with large corporations and financial services companies and would take decades to get over, while Corbyn will be building a 'special relationship' with Caracas and Mexico City which at least have more sunshine
True - but no deal gives us complete flexibility over how best to manage our own economy and much more choice in trading partners.
It gives us complete flexibility as to whether we want to be dictated to by China or the USA in any trade deal yes while we trash our economy at home
There is no evidence for that at all. You are just scaremongering based upon being browbeaten by the EU.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
With even HY abandoning Boris, his ship truly has sailed.
I would back Boris as leader of the Opposition but May as PM
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Absolutely agree. Also probably pretty dumb in practical terms. A No Deal would be absolutely catastrophic for Ireland but they do have other routes to bring in food so I would suggest food shortages is one thing they will not have to deal with.
I see from the Electoral Commission's website the most recent political party that has been registered is "The London Party". I thought perhaps Mr Meeks had been holding out on us, but I see its registered address is actually in Reading.
Edit: I don't know what they stand for, but just from the name I think these guys might be the ones we need right now
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
MPs are realists and can count.
If the vote goes down by triple figures as expected then May has 2 choices. She either faces reality and resigns or faces reality and says the deal needs to be renegotiated regardless of what anyone said before the vote. If she says she will renegotiate she might be given a chance to stay on but it might be too little too late.
If she carries on with nothing has changed then she will be forced out.
The EU will not renegotiate without the backstop so that is out May or No May.
Rudd BINO or EUref2 or Boris No Deal the only alternatives to the Deal both of which lead to Tory civil war though the former more likely in government if May did go
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
What do you think May is going to do after Tuesday, assuming she does not resign or face a vote of no confidence? She will have to propose something she previously said was a bad idea, like a referendum, or something she said was impossible, like renegotiating.
If even May will have to switch course like that to survive, then why would MPs in a theoretical vote not just go with someone who actually believes what they say on the topic? If May is going to attempt a fruitless negotiation, might as well go with someone else.
May's deal might well be all that is realistically on option. But parliament is not acting realistically, nor is the party. They might ditch her, find she was right, and regret their action. But what more can she actually achieve as PM? She cannot get her deal through. She cannot get a new deal. She cannot get anything through as the DUP will continue to oppose her.
I totally agree others are not in a good position to actually achieve more. But May can not even credibly attempt it. She has nothing more to offer, nothing more to give. It's time for her, and you, to throw in the towell. They'll try to renegotiate, and if they fail the new leader will have to face the same problems. But for May, the fight is nearly over. There is no benefit to the country or to her to keep going.
Nope over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal far more than back ERG No Deal.
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
What do you think May is going to do after Tuesday, assuming she does not resign or face a vote of no confidence? She will have to propose something she previously said was a bad idea, like a referendum, or something she said was impossible, like renegotiating.
I totally agree others are not in a good position to actually achieve more. But May can not even credibly attempt it. She has nothing more to offer, nothing more to give. It's time for her, and you, to throw in the towell. They'll try to renegotiate, and if they fail the new leader will have to face the same problems. But for May, the fight is nearly over. There is no benefit to the country or to her to keep going.
Nope over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal far more than back ERG No Deal.
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
I know more currently back the deal, we were discussing what they would all do when May says she is trying something else. I don't actually know what you think she will try - you say 'if BINO likely could get her deal through' but they will only have gone BINO if she is not in charge. So are you saying you think May will not attempt to renegotiate, and will instead suggest BINO or her deal?
There was an I think that is an astute point. His proposed way forward was to encourage an amendment specifying a referendum, on the assumption that that wouldn't pass. I find that a little odd, because I think it would pass, but the technique works just as well if the ruled-out option is No Deal.
It may be that in the next few days one of the non-deal options will be ruled out anyway by one of the amendments already tabled. That is perhaps the last remaining hope for a compromise swing behind the PM, but I'm not holding my breath.
Agree with that approach. Although that presumes that sanity prevails!
Yes, I fear it is too late and the deal-trashing has gathered too much momentum of its own. Maybe as an approach combined with some cosmetic renegotiation by the EU it might work, but it's bloody difficult to see quite how starting from here.
Pretty much all the deal trashing centres on the backstop. Solve the backstop, you save the deal.
I'm suh.
Only one nation needs to agree to resolve the backstop. Square the Republic of Ireland and you square the EU. As much as France and Spain and others have concerns of their own the backstop is only in for the Republic.
While I wish the Irish no ill will I was kind of hoping if they were going to bend the EU would bend on the backstop, since it is not as though it is in our interests to make things difficult on that border anyway, but so far they have resisted fiercely. I have thought all along the EU negotiators have made the same mistake many remain campaigners continue to make in assuming no 'sane' person would want no deal, or care to risk it, and so overplay their hand in respect of what is politically achievable in the UK. No, I don't expect favours from the EU, but as the stronger party in these negotiations they have more flexibility if they want to see a deal, as our very weakness, politically, makes accepting compromises harder.
They want is in the/a CU long term as that is how they tie us in for the long term. They want trade deals with Aus/NZ/Africa what better than to offer them access to our market for all their agriculture without us at the table and with no say.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
With even HY abandoning Boris, his ship truly has sailed.
I would back Boris as leader of the Opposition but May as PM
At least you have gained the sense not to trust him with any responsibility. When the Tories next make it to opposition, I expect they will be there for a very long time.
I'm no friend of this Government but it's hard to argue with your view. I'm still to be convinced McDonnell will dish up a genuinely Socialist economic policy in the next Labour Manifesto. I consider him a cleverer politician than Corbyn and it may be he will hide the Socialist wolf in Social Democratic sheep's clothing.
The problem for Social democracy is it was blamed for the financial crash of 2008 and the centre-left saw its reputation for economic management trashed. The Right chimed in with austerity but now that too seems to have run its course.
I'm also concerned as to how the global economic winds will be in the next 18-24 months - perversely, these may limit an incoming Labour Government's room for manoeuvre.
I've got an article on this duer to be posted on PB tomorrow. Spoiler: I basically agree with you.
At least you have gained the sense not to trust him with any responsibility. When the Tories next make it to opposition, I expect they will be there for a very long time.
It might not seem like it at times, but being the LOTO is still a kind responsibility.
Looks like the Tories will make it 9 years in office, one way or another. Not an awful run, if done unconventionally.
Nope over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal far more than back ERG No Deal.
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
Everything changes once the deal dies. Anyone claiming it can't be renegotiated, anyone claiming it's the only option, anyone claiming to back it will need to rethink if it is comprehensive rejected. What people say now is not necessarily what they will say on Wednesday.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
You are proposing a vote including an option the public has already rejected using a voting system the public has already rejected..
Ditching the UKIP infratstructure, such as it is, which he could easily have regained, and starting from nothing is brave. Unless it's just another short term publicity stunt.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be ne will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
With even HY abandoning Boris, his ship truly has sailed.
I would back Boris as leader of the Opposition but May as PM
At least you have gained the sense not to trust him with any responsibility. When the Tories next make it to opposition, I expect they will be there for a very long time.
With Corbyn as PM the Tories could be back after just one term.
Only if a more centrist alternative emerges from the centre left would the Tories face 1997 style years in the wilderness
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
What do you think May is going to do after Tuesday, assuming she does not resign or face a vote of no confidence? She will have to propose something she previously said was a bad idea, like a referendum, or something she said was impossible, like renegotiating.
I totally agree others are not in a good position to actually achieve more. But May can not even credibly attempt it. She has nothing more to offer, nothing more to give. It's time for her, and you, to throw in the towell. They'll try to renegotiate, and if they fail the new leader will have to face the same problems. But for May, the fight is nearly over. There is no benefit to the country or to her to keep going.
Nope over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal far more than back ERG No Deal.
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
I know more currently back the deal, we were discussing what they would all do when May says she is trying something else. I don't actually know what you think she will try - you say 'if BINO likely could get her deal through' but they will only have gone BINO if she is not in charge. So are you saying you think May will not attempt to renegotiate, and will instead suggest BINO or her deal?
May will stick to her Deal as she could get it through on a second vote with the Commons faves with BINO as an alternative or to a lesser extent No Deal
Given that there is an EU27 summit just two days after Tuesday's vote, my expectation is that Theresa May will at least try to hang on to get some kind of change to the deal (in particular the backstop). I'm sure that the EU27 will offer some kind of 'clarification' or helpful statement that the backstop is only intended to be temporary, but that's unlikely to be enough.
Given that there is an EU27 summit just two days after Tuesday's vote, my expectation is that Theresa May will at least try to hang on to get some kind of change to the deal (in particular the backstop). I'm sure that the EU27 will offer some kind of 'clarification' or helpful statement that the backstop is only intended to be temporary, but that's unlikely to be enough.
It would need to be pretty remarkable to sway enough, certainly, who will demand something concrete.
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Utter rubbish
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
Given that there is an EU27 summit just two days after Tuesday's vote, my expectation is that Theresa May will at least try to hang on to get some kind of change to the deal (in particular the backstop). I'm sure that the EU27 will offer some kind of 'clarification' or helpful statement that the backstop is only intended to be temporary, but that's unlikely to be enough.
It would need to be pretty remarkable to sway enough, certainly, who will demand something concrete.
Nope over 200 Tory MPs back May's Deal far more than back ERG No Deal.
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
Everything changes once the deal dies. Anyone claiming it can't be renegotiated, anyone claiming it's the only option, anyone claiming to back it will need to rethink if it is comprehensive rejected. What people say now is not necessarily what they will say on Wednesday.
Nope. Nothing changes. The EU will say again 'No backstop No Deal' if the UK wants to trash its economy with the worst recession for decades let that be a warning to other EU nations thinking of exit
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Utter rubbish
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
Utter rubbish. Ireland's whole purpose of wanting the backstop is to prevent the risk of a future No Deal. The idea they'd embrace it now is total nonsense.
Given that there is an EU27 summit just two days after Tuesday's vote, my expectation is that Theresa May will at least try to hang on to get some kind of change to the deal (in particular the backstop). I'm sure that the EU27 will offer some kind of 'clarification' or helpful statement that the backstop is only intended to be temporary, but that's unlikely to be enough.
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Utter rubbish
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
Given May's done sod all negotiations so far, it's about time we started. They haven't offered a deal, it's a surrender offer which May accepted.
Nest negotiations end win win. This one will be lose lose unless the EU see sense.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
A large slice of the electorate support each of the options. To engineer it off a referendum ballot which is to decide the future course of the country, just because you don't like it, doesn't seem terribly democratic to me.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
As I keep saying, it's not me you need to convince. Just look at the parliamentary numbers. The number of MPs prepared to countenance No Deal is probably less than 100. The rest think it would be an unmitigated disaster.
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Ok. And the EU negotiate differently in that situation because?
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Utter rubbish
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
Utter rubbish. Ireland's whole purpose of wanting the backstop is to prevent the risk of a future No Deal. The idea they'd embrace it now is total nonsense.
Barely 15% of Irish exports go to the UK, 44% of UK exports go to the EU just 16% of EU exports to the UK.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
Or might accidentally fall into it. If they think it's an unmitigated disaster, it would be irresponsible to risk it. As Nick P put it, you don't offer a choice between a placebo and poison.
A large slice of the electorate support each of the options. To engineer it off a referendum ballot which is to decide the future course of the country, just because you don't like it, doesn't seem terribly democratic to me.
And if the aim is to re-unite the country, anything else is almost guaranteed to fail.
As I keep saying, it's not me you need to convince. Just look at the parliamentary numbers. The number of MPs prepared to countenance No Deal is probably less than 100. The rest think it would be an unmitigated disaster.
Then why did they vote for it?
They do not think things through, and took a gamble they would be able to find a way out of it if they had to.
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
The only solution for the country is massive rejection of May's pathetic deal, her removal & new Brexit orientated PM who basically gives the EU Churchill's favourite finger gesture. Then negotiations can properly begin.
Utter rubbish
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
Given May's done sod all negotiations so far, it's about time we started. They haven't offered a deal, it's a surrender offer which May accepted.
Nest negotiations end win win. This one will be lose lose unless the EU see sense.
No backstop No Deal the EU are absolutely clear and the worst recession in the UK since the 1930s potentially and Scotland voting for independence with No Deal.
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
Priti Patel does - but maybe ERG do not understand the sensitivity of the potato famine in Ireland
Yes, hard Brexit plus Corbyn could see the end of our stable and prosperous democracy. Most people in most societies bout to hit disaster had no idea what was about to occur. My more optimistic take is that there isn't a significant revolutionary cadre in the UK and that one cannot be created before Corbyn / McDonell would lose power. I also don't think that depite the state of the Tories there is a high probability of a Labour majority at next election. Still, worrrying times for democratic pragmatists.
Nowadays, I try not to worry about anything related to politics, and to act merely as an interested observer. After all, it's not as if any of us has any power to affect any of it. There is, literally, no point in being worried about anything you have no influence over. It's like worrying about the inevitability of your own eventual death.
I am a great admirer of your analyses and am pleased to see you back. Nevertheless this is naive. The political decisions of the past years will affect people greatly in whichever direction and it is behoven on us to try to predict outcomes and benefit by them. If nothing else, that's what PB should be about.
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
While I didn't like her comments it is a bit rich for people to predict the apocalypse, or expect a vindictive EU to cripple us (and defend it as being our fault for starting this), and then need the smelling salts when a low tier politician over here says something crass.
Sees which way the wind is blowing more like, unless he's a very slow reader who has no access to the internet and only just read and comprehended the bits of it he doesn't like.
Sees which way the wind is blowing more like, unless he's a very slow reader who has no access to the internet and only just read and comprehended the bits of it he doesn't like.
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
Priti Patel does - but maybe ERG do not understand the sensitivity of the potato famine in Ireland
Given that Ireland is threatening to try and inflict a famine on us if we don't agree to their outrageous demands why should we care? It takes 2 to tango.
Mmm. Wonder how many other payroll votes will go before Tuesday? Why loyally defend an administration with days to live by voting for a Deal which is lost anyway, when you can virtue signal your ideological purity to whoever takes over?
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
While I didn't like her comments it is a bit rich for people to predict the apocalypse, or expect a vindictive EU to cripple us (and defend it as being our fault for starting this), and then need the smelling salts when a low tier politician over here says something crass.
There is only one country in the world trading solely under wto and that is Mauritania. Free trade agreements exist for a reason
Sees which way the wind is blowing more like, unless he's a very slow reader who has no access to the internet and only just read and comprehended the bits of it he doesn't like.
To be fair (and I don't know who he is) it's not unusual for people to resign just before the vote as they disliked it already but were hoping something would turn up before they're committed.
Sees which way the wind is blowing more like, unless he's a very slow reader who has no access to the internet and only just read and comprehended the bits of it he doesn't like.
The current situation must feel for a politician as though the winds are blowing harder than a prostitute Bill Clinton is paying by the orgasm.
But it's their own stupid fault for their total inability to face realities. Most of them can't have what they want (whatever that is) and they're sulking like spoiled three year olds.
It would be funny if the consequences of their self-indulgence and denial were not so very serious.
What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged.
It's that you strongly disagree with them.
Threatening Ireland with food shortages is crass
Making up stuff that didn't happen is even more crass.
Check out Priti Patel comments re Ireland today and widespread condemnation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland
They were entirely right.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
While I didn't like her comments it is a bit rich for people to predict the apocalypse, or expect a vindictive EU to cripple us (and defend it as being our fault for starting this), and then need the smelling salts when a low tier politician over here says something crass.
There is only one country in the world trading solely under wto and that is Mauritania. Free trade agreements exist for a reason
I never said they didn't. I was just noting that aggressive implications have occurred before.
Sees which way the wind is blowing more like, unless he's a very slow reader who has no access to the internet and only just read and comprehended the bits of it he doesn't like.
To be fair (and I don't know who he is) it's not unusual for people to resign just before the vote as they disliked it already but were hoping something would turn up before they're committed.
Normally I'd agree, but it has been very very clear that this was the direction and it was not changing before the vote. It was silly before the WA was announced for some, but you could justify waiting to see it, but May's entire pitch has been 'this is it', so I cannot see how it is justified waiting until now to quit if you cannot support the deal. A bit of time, sure, to think about things and weigh it up, but this long? No. It's virtue signalling, getting out beforehand.
I will need to read more of his reasoning, because that headline summary makes no sense, as the obeying EU rules to some extent for years to come is explicit as part of the very concept of having a transition agreement, and if he was against a transition he should have quit eons ago!
Looking forward to next week,current Betfair odds in the next Con leader market indicc.
I can't see how 70+ letters don't go in, if she hasn't resigned within 24 hours of losing the vote by triple figures.
May won't resign, she knows all the alternatives poll worse and have no alternative Brexit plan via BINO or No Deal either of which would tear the party apart. So even if a VONC she would still win it
She really really won't. She has one hope of not being ousted, driven by the fact no one wants to take over right now, and that's to attempt to renegotiate, something she has claimed cannot be done. What reason would any MP have for voting for May? Let's look at the options:
1) You're a May loyalist who thinks her deal is great - well it's been rejected so heavily it will never get through. You might as well still vote for her though. 2) You're a party loyalist who doesn't like the deal much but you follow your leader - well several cabinet members have already, before the vote is lost, talked about alternative options to be tried, and if they are openly doing that so will some loyalists, - something has to be tried and May might not be the best person to try it. Some will vote for her 3) You reluctantly backed the deal because the alternatives are not great - well unfortunately one will have to be tried, as May herself will admit, once parliament demolishes her deal> Given even she will have to say she'll try something else you may as well go for one of the people who have suggested that already. Most will vote against 4) New dealers - you didn't send in a letter but you believe a new deal can be negotiated, around 60 of you. None will vote for her 5) The ERG - enough said, none will vote for her 6)Boris Johnson - he wants to be PM, will not vote for her
May absolutely would. There is NO ALTERNATIVE that does not lead to a Tory civil war, simply too many Tory MPs oppose No Deal with Boris, Davis, Raab or Mogg or BINO with Rudd or Hammond and Javid and Hunt are tied to May's Deal and will get nothing extra from the EU who will not concede the backstop. All the alternatives also poll worse with the public than May.
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
MPs are realists and can count.
They aren't and they can't.
We'll see. I fear that they think they can but can't.
If she really believed what she had said about No Deal being better than a bad deal then she might be prepared to choose no deal. However, I think it is more likely that she would back a Deal vs Remain referendum as the best chance of seeing her deal approved. The main problem she faces is whether she can win a VONC to see such a plan through.
I take a very different position. The only way that Remainers will ever be reconciled to any form of agreed Brexit is if it stops No Deal. The people have already voted to Brexit, so she offers a "my deal or no deal" referendum to determine which. The Remainers can (take a risk and) abstain - or vote for her deal to unseat the Four Horsemen.
May's deal versus No Deal would clearly support her deal. Drama over (apart from some continuing blood-letting in the Tory party over her successor).
Good plan, apart from one inconvenient detail: How do you propose getting it through parliament?
Have all three options on the ballot: Deal; No Deal; Remain. Some incentive for everyone - and how, as a matter of principle, can they object ?
Principle? Hah! You new to politics?
Any one who opposes such a vote (ranked choice, of course) is effectively admitting they think that the majority of the electorate strongly object to their preferred solution.
You are proposing a vote including an option the public has already rejected using a voting system the public has already rejected..
Yep. You have to wonder which art of 'NO' they don't understand.
I will need to read more of his reasoning, because that headline summary makes no sense, as the obeying EU rules to some extent for years to come is explicit as part of the very concept of having a transition agreement, and if he was against a transition he should have quit eons ago!
Not the transition (which at under 2 years is pedantically not years) but the backstop.
Another one who can be won back by fixing the backstop.
Does anyone else feel that to resign now is pathetic?
Yes. Too long after the WA was agreed as government policy to claim you've only just now come to a decision that you cannot back it. So either he did and waited to resign for some reason, or they were willing to back it and are backtracking because they don't want to be on the losing side.
I'm sorry, if the problem is the backstop I'll give you a week or two to think about it, but the Saturday before a Tuesday vote? That's a coward's move.
I will need to read more of his reasoning, because that headline summary makes no sense, as the obeying EU rules to some extent for years to come is explicit as part of the very concept of having a transition agreement, and if he was against a transition he should have quit eons ago!
Not the transition (which at under 2 years is pedantically not years) but the backstop.
Another one who can be won back by fixing the backstop.
In which case the telegraph are summarising his objection poorly.
Does anyone else feel that to resign now is pathetic?
He could have gone back to his association Friday and met with them to discuss this issue. If they were in support of his resignation then it could be termed that he had acted professionally.
As a remainer I am happy to say that the eu is a mess and not ideal as a free trade association for many reasons but don’t presently see a good alternative. Breaking it from the inside is going to be much easier than from the outside. The worst outcome is we leave without a plan and then have to beg to come back.
I will need to read more of his reasoning, because that headline summary makes no sense, as the obeying EU rules to some extent for years to come is explicit as part of the very concept of having a transition agreement, and if he was against a transition he should have quit eons ago!
Not the transition (which at under 2 years is pedantically not years) but the backstop.
Another one who can be won back by fixing the backstop.
How would you force the EU to sign a WA without the backstop?
I will need to read more of his reasoning, because that headline summary makes no sense, as the obeying EU rules to some extent for years to come is explicit as part of the very concept of having a transition agreement, and if he was against a transition he should have quit eons ago!
Not the transition (which at under 2 years is pedantically not years) but the backstop.
Another one who can be won back by fixing the backstop.
In which case the telegraph are summarising his objection poorly.
Text from the article.
"This backstop also creates, as a matter of law, a legal reality that could prolong negotiations with the European Union indefinitely. Unable to unilaterally pull out of this backstop, we could be tied to the negotiating table for years, until we agree to anything in desperation. What would our alternative be? Where is the control so many voted to take back?"
OT If anyone took my betting tip-25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premier league with Salah top scorer-and the season finished today they'd have a medium sized smile on their face.
OT If anyone took my betting tip-25/1 on Liverpool to win the Premier league with Salah top scorer-and the season finished today they'd have a medium sized smile on their face.
Comments
And if everyone took such a fatalistic attitude, no one would campaign for anything. (Which admittedly has its attractions.)
So May likely stays, remember she can win even with just 51% of Tory MPs behind her
Other issues exist but nothing like as serious. For other issues compromises have been made that will be swallowed but this can't be.
Are Varadkar and Barnier willing to back down? If they can they can solve and save the deal.
Uniting people is just a stock phrase to politicians, they believe it on a personal level but their very chance to hold/gain power is based on wanting to disunite people, at least the sections not firmly in their camp, so it certainly is not ever an actual aim. Coming together just means people putting up with the winner.
He has, after all, started quite a few - with no obvious political rationale.
If the vote goes down by triple figures as expected then May has 2 choices. She either faces reality and resigns or faces reality and says the deal needs to be renegotiated regardless of what anyone said before the vote. If she says she will renegotiate she might be given a chance to stay on but it might be too little too late.
If she carries on with nothing has changed then she will be forced out.
If even May will have to switch course like that to survive, then why would MPs in a theoretical vote not just go with someone who actually believes what they say on the topic? If May is going to attempt a fruitless negotiation, might as well go with someone else.
May's deal might well be all that is realistically on option. But parliament is not acting realistically, nor is the party. They might ditch her, find she was right, and regret their action. But what more can she actually achieve as PM? She cannot get her deal through. She cannot get a new deal. She cannot get anything through as the DUP will continue to oppose her.
I totally agree others are not in a good position to actually achieve more. But May can not even credibly attempt it. She has nothing more to offer, nothing more to give. It's time for her, and you, to throw in the towell. They'll try to renegotiate, and if they fail the new leader will have to face the same problems. But for May, the fight is nearly over. There is no benefit to the country or to her to keep going.
Edit: I don't know what they stand for, but just from the name I think these guys might be the ones we need right now
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP6712
Or these ones
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP6680
Rudd BINO or EUref2 or Boris No Deal the only alternatives to the Deal both of which lead to Tory civil war though the former more likely in government if May did go
More back the Deal than BINO but if May did go Norway plus Customs Union BINO the favourite under Rudd or Lidington. However if BINO likely May could get the Deal through on second vote as the only alternative to the Commons voting for BINO instead
Looks like the Tories will make it 9 years in office, one way or another. Not an awful run, if done unconventionally.
Only if a more centrist alternative emerges from the centre left would the Tories face 1997 style years in the wilderness
The EU would say 'sod off' No Deal hurts you more than us as a percentage of economy.
Plus the voters oppose No Deal too, Deal trounced No Deal 65% to 35% with Yougov
The backstop needs to be scrapped.
Nest negotiations end win win. This one will be lose lose unless the EU see sense.
People are trying constantly to blackmail the UK into accepting the unacceptable backstop by claims of food shortages, medicine shortages and basically everything short of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
Yet it's apparently despicable for an MP to say we should fight fire with fire by telling Ireland the consequences if they don't compromise with us for them too?
People need to grow up.
Those are the stakes
But it's their own stupid fault for their total inability to face realities. Most of them can't have what they want (whatever that is) and they're sulking like spoiled three year olds.
It would be funny if the consequences of their self-indulgence and denial were not so very serious.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1071489170420449281
From the language some of them haven't even worked out this isn't a free trade deal, just a temporary withdrawal agreement.
Another one who can be won back by fixing the backstop.
I'm sorry, if the problem is the backstop I'll give you a week or two to think about it, but the Saturday before a Tuesday vote? That's a coward's move.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9K42AwzHnwM
"This backstop also creates, as a matter of law, a legal reality that could prolong negotiations with the European Union indefinitely. Unable to unilaterally pull out of this backstop, we could be tied to the negotiating table for years, until we agree to anything in desperation. What would our alternative be? Where is the control so many voted to take back?"
Liverpool 'child asylum seekers' found to be adults
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-46494675
https://twitter.com/strategicnews1/status/1071451212011237377?s=21
Out one of those tanks on the streets of the UK. Sit back and see what happens. #flagofoccupation