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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs re

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  • RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Evening all.

    I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.

    Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.

    The person who commands the Conservative party might not be able to command the Commons. In those circumstances Jeremy Corbyn may well not be the only or even the likeliest option.
    I agree with your first sentence, but fundamentally disagree with the second. The Queen will not get drawn into picking prime ministers. It will be the leader of the Tory Party, or the Labour Party, as it has been since 1922.

    Fundamentally I don’t believe those 20 Tory MPs will vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street. They might however trigger an election that could see him take office.
    It wasn’t in 1940.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tory Party will hold its own election in lieu of the country to cling on to power after screwing up. Either that or a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plan is for her to stay on as PM, and parliament lets it happen (given the DUP could see a vote of no confidence pass), it would have to be on the basis she was doing something parliament as a whole wanted, eg going back to renegotiate, even as the Tories selected their own leader. If that was not the case it would indeed be a terrible piece of recklessness, pausing Brexit for however long a Tory contest and a new brexit position would take. And parliament surely would not permit that, including the DUP. So this must presume she goes back to the EU and goes "You say what happened - I'm PM but no longer leader of my party because of how bad the deal was. You want it to happen? Give me something more, believe me this is not about saving my own skin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.
    Not sure what being in the Cabinet would do at this point. Perhaps what would be a better approach is stay on as PM but not Tory leader so the Tories can have their stupid little contest, and announce that she recognise most in the house want a renegotiation (ostensibly at any rate, I don't quite buy everyone means that), and as such she wants all party leaders to come with her to the EU summit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.
    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    kle4 said:

    May could stay in post as suggested by the tweet, or she could nominate Lidington as a caretaker. I guess it doesn't make too much difference which.

    It is my understanding that May repeated Cameron's (deliberate?) mistake and failed to plan properly for No Deal. That is inexcusable. I've no sympathy at all.

    I don't have an issue having sympathy for someone and criticising them heavily at the same time. She's made many mistakes and, in what is granted a very difficult task, not shown leadership that is needed (failing to make a decision until Chequers for a start). And as you say not preparing for no deal. That doesn't prevent me from having sympathy about the aspects that were outside her control, or where others are being unreasonable, or at her personal situation where she is now, if too late, clearly working hard on something she believes to be the best option and facing vicious attacks (see accusations of treason etc) for doing so.
    Hmmmm... on the one hand I get where you're coming from. Cameron dealt her a very tricky hand, and she has clearly worked very hard to get this deal sorted out.

    On the other hand, not preparing the country properly for every likely eventuality was a gross dereliction of duty. I don't know what was going on in her head, of course, but it also looks suspiciously like an attempt to try to close off a Hard/Clean Brexit option and force the country to accept a very close relationship with the EU, on terms dictated by the EU. Especially given her position at the start of her leadership, that would be very deceitful.

    I don't want to say anything else rude about the woman, because she has had an awful job to do and it is also quite possible that she thinks everything she has done has been genuinely for the best. However, I believe that she has acted very poorly.
    That's fine. Whether the scales come down in her favour or not was not really what I was getting at, in terms of do her positives outwweigh her negatives and that sort of thing. I just mean she evokes sympathy for reasons X, even if reasons Y means that in the end that sympathy cannot allow her to escape condemnation. People will reasonably come to different judgements on that front.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Theresa May would have no authority whatever as PM but not party leader
  • Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    I suggested this here earlier this week when people were saying it was too late for a 2018 change.
  • FF43 said:

    Theresa May would have no authority whatever as PM but not party leader
    It would be a temporary arrangement.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018

    kle4 said:

    May could stay in post as suggested by the tweet, or she could nominate Lidington as a caretaker. I guess it doesn't make too much difference which.

    It is my understanding that May repeated Cameron's (deliberate?) mistake and failed to plan properly for No Deal. That is inexcusable. I've no sympathy at all.

    I don't have an issue having sympathy for someone and criticising them heavily at the same time. She's made many mistakes and, in what is granted a very difficult task, not shown leadership that is needed (failing to make a decision until Chequers for a start). And as you say not preparing for no deal. That doesn't prevent me from having sympathy about the aspects that were outside her control, or where others are being unreasonable, or at her personal situation where she is now, if too late, clearly working hard on something she believes to be the best option and facing vicious attacks (see accusations of treason etc) for doing so.
    Hmmmm... on the one hand I get where you're coming from. Cameron dealt her a very tricky hand, and she has clearly worked very hard to get this deal sorted out.

    On the other hand, not preparing the country properly for every likely eventuality was a gross dereliction of duty. I don't know what was going on in her head, of course, but it also looks suspiciously like an attempt to try to close off a Hard/Clean Brexit option and force the country to accept a very close relationship with the EU, on terms dictated by the EU. Especially given her position at the start of her leadership, that would be very deceitful.

    I don't want to say anything else rude about the woman, because she has had an awful job to do and it is also quite possible that she thinks everything she has done has been genuinely for the best. However, I believe that she has acted very poorly.
    Why say "suspiciously" when we all know the no deal option was indeed closed off at the beginning, as reassurance to big business that was beginning to panic in the aftermath of the vote?

    My perception is that the closer you follow politics, the more you can see the flaws in the way May has conducted herself (in terms of how she did it regardless of what we think of what she did). But for the average person in the street they see a reasonable woman surrounded by unreasonable opponents, mostly on her own side, and her reputation and standing hasn't taken that much of a knock.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
  • I don’t see how this works. The government does not control the timing:

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1071522013469122561?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Jonathan said:

    Resignation would mean abject political failure with a toxic legacy. That would be hard to stomach for any pol.

    Especially the second in a row. Or even the third.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,409
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    So you re left with the ones thinking about retirement anyway. Given how close the vote will be depending on how the DUP vote it wouldn’t take many mps anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tory Party will hold its own election in lieu of the country to cling on to power after screwing up. Either that or a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plaskin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.
    Not sure what being in the Cabinet would do at this point. Perhaps what would be a better approach is stay on as PM but not Tory leader so the Tories can have their stupid little contest, and announce that she recognise most in the house want a renegotiation (ostensibly at any rate, I don't quite buy everyone means that), and as such she wants all party leaders to come with her to the EU summit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.
    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.
    But there's no one to 'hand over' to. An election might return the Tories to power (I find that implausible, but it is possible), or a parliament even more hung, and we're on a ticking clock here. Corbyn doesn't have a majority in the Commons either.

    I don't doubt the Tories are hanging on, in a lot of ways, right now, but parliament is supposed to last a full term, even when it is minority, they're expected to sort it out somehow, not just call snap GEs which may not solve anything.

    So yes, the Tories have made a right mess of things and this supposed idea would be problematic in plenty of ways. But wasting 2 months on a GE isn't a help. Letting Corbyn have a go is not entirely a silly idea, he might well be better placed to get a deal through, but that would still require parliament to agree to ask for an extension, and given the Tories do still have the largest party it is not unfair for them to try to renegotiate, particularly if that is what parliament wants it to do, and if that means some weird PM not as party leader approach that's odd, but not against the wishes of parliament.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited December 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Evening all.

    I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.

    Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.

    The person who commands the Conservative party might not be able to command the Commons. In those circumstances Jeremy Corbyn may well not be the only or even the likeliest option.
    I agree with your first sentence, but fundamentally disagree with the second. The Queen will not get drawn into picking prime ministers. It will be the leader of the Tory Party, or the Labour Party, as it has been since 1922.

    Fundamentally I don’t believe those 20 Tory MPs will vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street. They might however trigger an election that could see him take office.
    It wasn’t in 1940.
    Alastair, are you not one of the ones who keeps criticising Brexiteers for harking back to Dunkirk?

    If so, please stop invoking the extremely unusual circumstances of 1940 yourself, or indeed 1945 when Anderson was mooted as Churchill's successor.

    (Technically also 1931-35 the Prime Minister was not leader of one of the two major parties. Also Home was a Scottish Unionist not a Conservative.)
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    She would if the DUP voted against her.

    I've not seen the report in question, but there is more than one flavour of VoNC. There could be a symbolic, legally non-binding one targeted at her, or a formal one under the terms of the FTPA. If she refuses to budge then the first could be tried, if she still won't go then perhaps they'd consider the second?

    The DUP are the swing voters in all this, of course. They'd like to see the back of May, but their language suggests they don't wish to bring down the Tories and chance putting Corbyn into bat unless it's absolutely unavoidable. If the deal were somehow to pass on Tuesday with the NI backstop intact then they've already said that they'll bring down the Government. If it doesn't then their preference would be for May to go and a new Tory leader more to their taste to be installed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited December 2018

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    I not sure how this would work. There are only 2 vnoc that matter, one is from TM fellow conservative mps and the other from labour. The only vote in Parliament that could unseat TM is a successful labour vnoc

    If you are suggesting conservative mps will vote against TM in a labour vnoc that would be their last act as a member of the party and would be deselected
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    Simultaneously screwing the Tory membership, Labour and the spirit of the constitution. Ingenious but too clever by half IMO. Will be fun to watch though.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    Only if the MPs concerned are minded to end their careers!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    I not sure how this would work. There are only 2 vnoc that matter, one is from TM fellow conservative mps and the other from labour. The only vote in Parliament that could unseat TM is a successful labour vnoc

    If you are suggesting conservative mps will vote against TM in a labour vnoc that would be their last act as a member of the party and would be deselected
    No. We don’t have a majority. She can lose it if the DUP vote against her.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Never heard of him... nor will many others have... is it a hoax. Google doesn't seem to know him either
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    I don’t see how this works. The government does not control the timing:

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1071522013469122561?s=21

    Sigh. The main point of praise I could given May in the past week and more is that they were indeed going to hold a vote, confirm everyone's position. That a vote delay was raised as a possibility yesterday and now a likely option today is removing some of the vestiges of respect I had for her. I know can kicking is beloved by her and the EU, but really, is this necessary? Not to mention as you say delaying it is not a simple exercise either. Have people been right that she truly did have no idea the vote was going to be lost until just now?

    For the love of gods woman, just resign already and spare us all and yourself this torture.
    FF43 said:

    Theresa May would have no authority whatever as PM but not party leader
    Presumably the idea would be the party agrees, at the least, that a renegotiation is worth trying, and she can be tasked with starting that up while they have a contest.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tory Party will hold its own election in lieu of the country to cling on to power after screwing up. Either that or a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plaskin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.
    Not sure what being in e their stupid little contest, and announce that she recognise most in the house want a renegotiation (ostensibly at any rate, I don't quite buy everyone means that), and as such she wants all party leaders to come with her to the EU summit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.
    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.
    But there's no one to 'hand over' to. An election might return the Tories to power (I find that implausible, but it is possible), or a parliament even more hung, and we're on a ticking clock here. Corbyn doesn't have a majority in the Commons either.

    I don't doubt the Tories are hanging on, in a lot of ways, right now, but parliament is supposed to last a full term, even when it is minority, they're expected to sort it out somehow, not just call snap GEs which may not solve anything.

    So yes, the Tories have made a right mess of things and this supposed idea would be problematic in plenty of ways. But wasting 2 months on a GE isn't a help. Letting Corbyn have a go is not entirely a silly idea, he might well be better placed to get a deal through, but that would still require parliament to agree to ask for an extension, and given the Tories do still have the largest party it is not unfair for them to try to renegotiate, particularly if that is what parliament wants it to do, and if that means some weird PM not as party leader approach that's odd, but not against the wishes of parliament.
    Labour showed last week that it can be very effective in Parliament. It looks competent and relatively united. That would be a huge improvement.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2018

    I don’t see how this works. The government does not control the timing:

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1071522013469122561?s=21

    Precisely. Now the vote has been called presumably they'd need to ask the Speaker (and would he be obliged to agree?) to shoehorn some sort of delaying amendment into the Commons schedule on Monday, and win a vote on that? Even if this were possible AND every single Tory voted for it, why would the DUP?

    (Edit: apologies for my shaky grasp on the technicalities of Parliamentary procedure relevant to this case!)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Scott_P said:
    Never heard of him... nor will many others have.
    He certainly isn't an MP. I've never heard of him.
  • Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    I not sure how this would work. There are only 2 vnoc that matter, one is from TM fellow conservative mps and the other from labour. The only vote in Parliament that could unseat TM is a successful labour vnoc

    If you are suggesting conservative mps will vote against TM in a labour vnoc that would be their last act as a member of the party and would be deselected
    No. We don’t have a majority. She can lose it if the DUP vote against her.
    If her deal falls JRM stated the DUP will support the government in a vnoc. You are not suggesting this deal will pass are you

    And the point about conservative mps voting with a labour vnoc stands
  • Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
  • ydoethur said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Evening all.

    I don’t think May can stay if her deal is rejected. Assuming the leadership vote progresses to the membership stage, the winning candidate will be the one that refuses a referendum and confirms that No Deal is an option. Assuming that leads to 20 Tory MPs abandoning the whip, they will then have a choice between putting Corbyn into Number 10 in the vain hope of obtaining a referendum, or triggering an election that will see them lose their seats.

    Thus we totter towards Hard Brexit.

    The person who commands the Conservative party might not be able to command the Commons. In those circumstances Jeremy Corbyn may well not be the only or even the likeliest option.
    I agree with your first sentence, but fundamentally disagree with the second. The Queen will not get drawn into picking prime ministers. It will be the leader of the Tory Party, or the Labour Party, as it has been since 1922.

    Fundamentally I don’t believe those 20 Tory MPs will vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street. They might however trigger an election that could see him take office.
    It wasn’t in 1940.
    Alastair, are you not one of the ones who keeps criticising Brexiteers for harking back to Dunkirk?

    If so, please stop invoking the extremely unusual circumstances of 1940 yourself, or indeed 1945 when Anderson was mooted as Churchill's successor.

    (Technically also 1931-35 the Prime Minister was not leader of one of the two major parties. Also Home was a Scottish Unionist not a Conservative.)
    I was correcting a factual error.

    At a time of political crisis the monarch may be called upon to identify the person most able to command the confidence of the Commons. I think we might safely call this a time of political crisis unlike any since, well, 1940 actually.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095


    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1071499871339888642?s=21

    Puts party first, country second.

    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.

    The Tory Party will hold its own election in lieu of the country to cling on to power after screwing up. Either that or a stitch up. Either way not good

    If the plaskin"

    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.

    Not sure what being in e their stupid little contest, and announce that she recognise most in the house want a renegotiation (ostensibly at any rate, I don't quite buy everyone means that), and as such she wants all party leaders to come with her to the EU summit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.

    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.

    But there's no one to 'hand over' to. An election might return the Tories to power (I find that implausible, but it is possible), or a parliament even more hung, and we're on a ticking clock here. Corbyn doesn't have a majority in the Commons either.

    I don't doubt the Tories are hanging on, in a lot of ways, right now, but parliament is supposed to last a full term, even when it is minority, they're expected to sort it out somehow, not just call snap GEs which may not solve anything.

    So yes, the Tories have made a right mess of things and this supposed idea would be problematic in plenty of ways. But wasting 2 months on a GE isn't a help. Letting Corbyn have a go is not entirely a silly idea, he might well be better placed to get a deal through, but that would still require parliament to agree to ask for an extension, and given the Tories do still have the largest party it is not unfair for them to try to renegotiate, particularly if that is what parliament wants it to do, and if that means some weird PM not as party leader approach that's odd, but not against the wishes of parliament.

    Labour showed last week that it can be very effective in Parliament. It looks competent and relatively united. That would be a huge improvement.

    Not you as well.. You know that's not true. Labour is as disunited as the Tories
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Scott_P said:
    Never heard of him... nor will many others have... is it a hoax. Google doesn't seem to know him either
    Even google has not heard of him.
  • kle4 said:

    May could stay in post as suggested by the tweet, or she could nominate Lidington as a caretaker. I guess it doesn't make too much difference which.

    It is my understanding that May repeated Cameron's (deliberate?) mistake and failed to plan properly for No Deal. That is inexcusable. I've no sympathy at all.

    I don't have an issue having sympathy for someone and criticising them heavily at the same time. She's made many mistakes and, in what is granted a very difficult task, not shown leadership that is needed (failing to make a decision until Chequers for a start). And as you say not preparing for no deal. That doesn't prevent me from having sympathy about the aspects that were outside her control, or where others are being unreasonable, or at her personal situation where she is now, if too late, clearly working hard on something she believes to be the best option and facing vicious attacks (see accusations of treason etc) for doing so.
    Hmmmm... on the one hand I get where you're coming from. Cameron dealt her a very tricky hand, and she has clearly worked very hard to get this deal sorted out.

    Cameron bequeathed her a working Commons majority of 15, IIRC.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Scott_P said:
    Never heard of him... nor will many others have... is it a hoax. Google doesn't seem to know him either
    Even google has not heard of him.
    "Stanchion". "Support".
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Only if the DUP support a VONC will May be defeated. How likely is that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tor a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plaskin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.
    Not sure what being in e their stupid little contest, and announce that she recognise most in the house want a renegotiation (ostensibly at any rate, I don't quite buy everyone means that), and as such she wants all party leaders to come with her to the EU summit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.
    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.
    But there's no one to 'hand over' to. An election might return the Tories to power (I find that implausiblef parliament.
    Labour showed last week that it can be very effective in Parliament. It looks competent and relatively united. That would be a huge improvement.
    Well for one they are not having to take any decisions, just oppose, which is easier to do, but I don't deny they are more united at present, but they don't have a majority either, so the idea the Tories are clinging on when there is an effective working majority, on Brexit being the key issue particularly, to hand over to is not true and thus would make a switch a bit pointless. Labour might successfully no confidence this government; it would certainly deserve it. But if the fail at that then would that be the Tories 'clinging' on?

    A GE is coming next year come what May, I am very confident of that as this situation cannot continue, but the big question now is Brexit, and how exactly does this parliament led by Labour lead to any better an outcome? As government they would have more control over what is put before the house, but the major stumbling block is how people are voting, and the numbers are what they are - the Tories too divided to get things through, Labour with not enough numbers to do so. Their being more competent doesn't alter that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    'As much as'? I think you're being a bit optimistic there. Most of Labour would salivate at the prospect of a referendum so they can remain.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    justin124 said:

    Only if the DUP support a VONC will May be defeated. How likely is that?

    Last I heard they were saying they'd support a VoNC if the WA passed, but not if it didn't.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tor a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plaskin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘keeping out Corbyn ‘.
    Not suremit so they can all negotiate together with the EU.
    This smells like the Tories hanging on after making a right royal Horlicks of it.
    But there's no one to 'hand over' to. An election might return the Tories to power (I find that implausiblef parliament.
    Labour showed last week that it can be very effective in Parliament. It looks competent and relatively united. That would be a huge improvement.
    Well for one they are not having to take any decisions, just oppose, which is easier to do, but I don't deny they are more united at present, but they don't have a majority either, so the idea the Tories are clinging on when there is an effective working majority, on Brexit being the key issue particularly, to hand over to is not true and thus would make a switch a bit pointless. Labour might successfully no confidence this government; it would certainly deserve it. But if the fail at that then would that be the Tories 'clinging' on?

    A GE is coming next year come what May, I am very confident of that as this situation cannot continue, but the big question now is Brexit, and how exactly does this parliament led by Labour lead to any better an outcome? As government they would have more control over what is put before the house, but the major stumbling block is how people are voting, and the numbers are what they are - the Tories too divided to get things through, Labour with not enough numbers to do so. Their being more competent doesn't alter that.
    Labour seem to be able to win votes in parliament. Worth a go IMO. The key difference between them and May is that they want to convince and work with others.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
    Len Mccluskey has told labour unite oppose a second referendum as it would decimate labours support in leave areas
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
    Len Mccluskey has told labour unite oppose a second referendum as it would decimate labours support in leave areas
    Irrelevant to a VONC.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177


    Not you as well.. You know that's not true. Labour is as disunited as the Tories

    Not being united is not the same as being asdisunited as the Tories. It is farcical to suggest the Tories are not the most fractured on this issue. Some of them are even calling others in the party as being akin to traitors for crying out loud. Labour's troubles on Brexit are there but not as severe, and their divisions on other issues are being very quiet right now.

    They would probably being doing a better job.
  • Scott_P said:
    Never heard of him... nor will many others have... is it a hoax. Google doesn't seem to know him either
    It's a fine example of kevvenraged's wit and wisdom.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Theresa May would have no authority whatever as PM but not party leader
    It would be a temporary arrangement.
    You mean like David Cameron, who resigned but stayed on as caretaker until a successor was chosen?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    kle4 said:

    May could stay in post as suggested by the tweet, or she could nominate Lidington as a caretaker. I guess it doesn't make too much difference which.

    It is my understanding that May repeated Cameron's (deliberate?) mistake and failed to plan properly for No Deal. That is inexcusable. I've no sympathy at all.

    I don't have an issue having sympathy for someone and criticising them heavily at the same time. She's made many mistakes and, in what is granted a very difficult task, not shown leadership that is needed (failing to make a decision until Chequers for a start). And as you say not preparing for no deal. That doesn't prevent me from having sympathy about the aspects that were outside her control, or where others are being unreasonable, or at her personal situation where she is now, if too late, clearly working hard on something she believes to be the best option and facing vicious attacks (see accusations of treason etc) for doing so.
    Hmmmm... on the one hand I get where you're coming from. Cameron dealt her a very tricky hand, and she has clearly worked very hard to get this deal sorted out.

    Cameron bequeathed her a working Commons majority of 15, IIRC.
    I was, of course, talking about the combination of the referendum itself and the complete lack of any preparation for a Leave vote.

    But yes, she's made the situation worse with plenty of her own mistakes too.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    I seriously doubt that. I expect all Labour MPs to effortlessly back a VONC. The question is could they entice a handful of abstentions if they promise a referendum.
    Len Mccluskey has told labour unite oppose a second referendum as it would decimate labours support in leave areas
    Irrelevant to a VONC.
    I never said it about a vnoc
  • FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Theresa May would have no authority whatever as PM but not party leader
    It would be a temporary arrangement.
    You mean like David Cameron, who resigned but stayed on as caretaker until a successor was chosen?
    Pretty much.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Puts party first, country second.
    How is having an election now for the good of the country? Parliament needs to get a grip and make a decision, not seek to place it on the shoulders of a new parliament of uncertain composition, which would have a commitment to do god knows what since both main parties will have vague at best Brexit policies.

    No, parliament doesn't get its new election until after they sort this shit out.
    The Tory Party will hold its own election in lieu of the country to cling on to power after screwing up. Either that or a stitch up. Either way not good
    If the plaskin"
    If she is serious about that she should have non Tories in the cabinet. This should not be about ‘ke
    SNIP


    So yes, the Tories have made a right mess of things and this supposed idea would be problematic in plenty of ways. But wasting 2 months on a GE isn't a help. Letting Corbyn have a go is not entirely a silly idea, he might well be better placed to get a deal through, but that would still require parliament to agree to ask for an extension, and given the Tories do still have the largest party it is not unfair for them to try to renegotiate, particularly if that is what parliament wants it to do, and if that means some weird PM not as party leader approach that's odd, but not against the wishes of parliament.
    Labour showed last week that it can be very effective in Parliament. It looks competent and relatively united. That would be a huge improvement.
    But they are dangerous and led by anti semites.

    I remember when you hated what Labour had turned into and up to the last minute at last election you agonised about whether to vote.

    But now you might get power you don't care even if nothing has changed?

  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Torygraph also reporting that the plan to get rid of May is to leverage an expected VONC from Lab and SNP. May will lose this which means that the Torys have 14 days to get a new leader to get the confidence of The House. Means can not go to the members.

    May would not lose a VONC in Parliament - no Tory MP would be likely to support it or abstain.
    Err, enough Torys will abstain or vote against. This is their plan seeing as May would win a Tory leadership challenge,
    Any Tory MP who did that would face deselection!
    What if Labour promised a referendum? Might be worth it.
    It would rupture labour as much as the conservatives
    'As much as'? I think you're being a bit optimistic there. Most of Labour would salivate at the prospect of a referendum so they can remain.
    Precisely. Labour is moving rapidly toward backing a second referendum and the momentum is probably unstoppable now. McDonnell is clearly in favour.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Howard's managed clean Brexit (on Today this morning) makes more sense than Rudd's Norway+.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:
    Those two scenarios are not the same at all. She (or someone) has to go back to Brussels in both, but in one she is able to call upon the strength of the rejection by parliament as proof of why this just will not work, and in the other she asserts it quite truthfully, but no one knows for certain precisely what the strength of feeling against it would have been push come to shove.

    I don't get this last second equivocation from May - the deal is being rejected massively whether you hold a formal vote on it or not, so any humiliation is there regardless, so at least get something out of it by holding the vote. It's not like her position is secured or strengthened by not holding the vote.

    Well, I was going to suggest the PM has lost all authority, but after she pulled the vote in panic at a big loss suddenly I realise she has complete control of the situation. Will say no one.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited December 2018
    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Please please please can the EU have just been bluffing about the backstop this whole time. Good japes and all that, but time to get serious. Otherwise it's going to be an interminable period for the next few weeks.

    Adieu
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    JohnO said:

    Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.

    Good for them. Good for everyone. Although the Tories really need to kick out JRM and the ERGonaughts rather than centrists.
  • I see the popularity of fall out 76 larping is spreading across France. I wonder how many more weekends they are going to continue before they get bored of robbing banks and mobile phone shops?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just heard Martin Goss selected as Lib Dem candidate for Colchester seat at next election.

    That man is a great public servant and works tirelessly for his community.

    Will Quince might have a fight next time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Quite right. The iceberg has been on the horizon for weeks, but the captain has been determined to steer toward it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
  • Thousands of anti-fascists are expected to attend a central London protest on Sunday to counter a march by the far-right campaigner Tommy Robinson and his supporters. The counter-protest has been organised by the Labour-supporting Momentum group and partners.

    I am sure everybody will have a robust but peaceful debate over the issues...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    JohnO said:

    Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.

    I see what you mean. They're both in isolated Remain voting areas within Leave voting parts of the country, and the Lib Dems were a strong second in both constituencies pre-Coalition. They'd have a good chance of surviving an election.

    Precisely. Labour is moving rapidly toward backing a second referendum and the momentum is probably unstoppable now. McDonnell is clearly in favour.

    This, however, gets us no closer to a referendum actually happening. There needs to be a sympathetic Prime Minister in order for a referendum bill to pass through Parliament.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Quite right. The iceberg has been on the horizon for weeks, but the captain has been determined to steer toward it.
    The EU claimed the rudder was locked, so we cannot steer away. We either hit and it's not large enough to bring down the boat, or we throw the engines into reverse.

    (I do not know about boats)
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    All the nosense about McDonnell being a pragmatist. He wants a revolution.. as he told the "bruvvers"
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    Wow.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Nothing will go through. Period. There is no majority in the HoC for any available Brexit deal. It's either no deal or remain.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Quite right. The iceberg has been on the horizon for weeks, but the captain has been determined to steer toward it.
    She has been trying to square a circle: secure a soft Brexit deal that both her strong Brexiteers and the DUP will reject, and then magically steer it through Parliament without splitting her party and bringing down her own Government.

    I'm not sure if she was expecting the intervention of God or of Merlin, but there have been no sightings either of the Almighty or of fictitious medieval wizards thus far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    <
    This, however, gets us no closer to a referendum actually happening. There needs to be a sympathetic Prime Minister in order for a referendum bill to pass through Parliament.

    May is the best bet there - if it means her deal can be up against Remain. Problem there is her own party (and the inherent preposterousness of including her deal after its humiliation before the commons, if we ever get a vote)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    Wow.
    Indeed. May would give her right wing for one.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.

    Good for them. Good for everyone. Although the Tories really need to kick out JRM and the ERGonaughts rather than centrists.
    JR-M and ERGonaughts! That's very good. Is it yours?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Quite right. The iceberg has been on the horizon for weeks, but the captain has been determined to steer toward it.
    The grinding slowness of it all starts to feel more like tectonic plates, not boats and icebergs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177

    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Very febrile on here tonight. Fundamentally though nothing has changed since Chequers. It ought to have been clear to whips then that nothing would go through without opposition support. Nothing has been done towards that end.
    Too late now.

    Quite right. The iceberg has been on the horizon for weeks, but the captain has been determined to steer toward it.
    She has been trying to square a circle: secure a soft Brexit deal that both her strong Brexiteers and the DUP will reject, and then magically steer it through Parliament without splitting her party and bringing down her own Government.

    I'm not sure if she was expecting the intervention of God or of Merlin, but there have been no sightings either of the Almighty or of fictitious medieval wizards thus far.
    I think it is as simple as she underestimated the scale of the numbers in her own party who would be against it. If they were fewer waverers in her ranks and Labour might be more amendable in a tense situation, at the least for a second attempt.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    kle4 said:

    <
    This, however, gets us no closer to a referendum actually happening. There needs to be a sympathetic Prime Minister in order for a referendum bill to pass through Parliament.

    May is the best bet there - if it means her deal can be up against Remain. Problem there is her own party (and the inherent preposterousness of including her deal after its humiliation before the commons, if we ever get a vote)
    May can’t work with others. A dogged tin ear and leaden footwork makes her a very bad bet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    <
    This, however, gets us no closer to a referendum actually happening. There needs to be a sympathetic Prime Minister in order for a referendum bill to pass through Parliament.

    May is the best bet there - if it means her deal can be up against Remain. Problem there is her own party (and the inherent preposterousness of including her deal after its humiliation before the commons, if we ever get a vote)
    May can’t work with others. A dogged tin ear and leaden footwork makes her a very bad bet.
    In this context I meant she would be their best choice for a PM who wants a referendum, not that it will happen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    JohnO said:

    Sadly I can see Sarah Woolaston and Heidi Allen abstaining on a vonc, not that it would matter if the DUP also supported it - the government would fall anyway. I suspect that one of both of them might defect to the LibDems.

    Good for them. Good for everyone. Although the Tories really need to kick out JRM and the ERGonaughts rather than centrists.
    JR-M and ERGonaughts! That's very good. Is it yours?
    No. I mentioned it a few months ago, but I’m sure others got there first. Medusa’s head beckons.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    Wow.
    Indeed. May would give her right wing for one.
    An actual competent opposition would be 15 to 20 points up in the polls.

    Labour has Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Been out at pop-up restaurant hell. May to resign Tuesday? What do the Sundays reckon?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
    I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    Just seen a quite brilliant documentary, 3 Identical Strangers about triplets reared apart in the US. Nice to see that it was directed by a Brit, Tim Wardle, following in the great tradition of British documentary film making. Something we ought to celebrate rather more in this era of fake news.
  • Been out at pop-up restaurant hell. May to resign Tuesday? What do the Sundays reckon?

    All over the place and in truth no one has a clue

    Never mind not too long to wait
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Been out at pop-up restaurant hell. May to resign Tuesday? What do the Sundays reckon?

    That would be a shame. She's not been great but she deserves better than to be forced out by some of the most unpleasant pieces of shit politics has thrown up for yeas
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    Just saw a clip of some French government ministers on the BBC news and they all look a bit like Agent Smith out of The Matrix, with almost identical suits and ties. Probably not reassuring for the yellow jackets.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Been out at pop-up restaurant hell. May to resign Tuesday? What do the Sundays reckon?

    All over the place and in truth no one has a clue

    Never mind not too long to wait
    Thanks.

    "All over the place and in truth no one has a clue" - sounds like tonight's pop-up restaurant!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
    I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
    We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
  • Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
    I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
    We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
    I strongly suspect that it would be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Just seen a quite brilliant documentary, 3 Identical Strangers about triplets reared apart in the US. Nice to see that it was directed by a Brit, Tim Wardle, following in the great tradition of British documentary film making. Something we ought to celebrate rather more in this era of fake news.

    Thanks for that, it has come through as a BAFTA screener, so will put it to the top of the pile.

    Have you seen the documentary McQueen?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OjX3ZbsfbU
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting. I don't suppose anyone's thought of yellow jackets?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
    I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
    We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
    I strongly suspect that it would be.
    Worth a go, the last time the Tories warned about Labour led coalitions...

    https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Donny43 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Labour simply have to be better than the government...

    ...With this shower, that is not hard.

    They haven't yet managed it though.
    They won a vote in the Commons.
    The Tories have won many votes in the Commons, what of it?
    Not with 258 seats and not this week on Brexit. We need a party that can stitch together wins by working with others. The evidence suggests that Labour might be better placed despite the disadvantages.
    I'm pretty sure Labour can't win an overall majority. If they're going to enter government, it'll be a rainbow coalition of Lab, SNP, LD, PC, Green.
    We will get to find out, can’t be worse than the blue rainbow we currently have
    I strongly suspect that it would be.

    https://twitter.com/david_cameron/status/595112367358406656?s=21
    Well, he didn't opine on the relative stability of May... :p
  • Sunday Times reporting May is likely to delay the vote. I was under the impression it could only now be delayed with a vote in the commons to agree to such a delay. Am I mistaken?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    Sunday Times reporting May is likely to delay the vote. I was under the impression it could only now be delayed with a vote in the commons to agree to such a delay. Am I mistaken?

    I’d true, this really underlines that she has really been in the bunker these past few months. Out of touch and hideously poorly advised.
This discussion has been closed.