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EU WILL negotiate if TMay loses Tuesday's Commons Brexit vote, says former EU head Prodi https://t.co/6EHH57jHdv
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His pot-stirring is at best ill-advised and at worst thicker than a yard of lard if not.
But to be honest, most of it now hinges on the CJEU next Monday. If they rule we can revoke A50 unilaterally the odds are we will crash out with no deal. If not, that should tip the unicorn admirers in Labour to abstention.
Suggests it has been lacking to date. Prodi putting the boot into the current regime in Brussels?
Tax credits and housing benefit as concepts don't exist in most central and eastern European nations - so it shouldn't be a major issue. So its just reciprocity after all.
It would at least be a compromise if we must keep FOM Norway style?
Also, what about the unicorn admirers in the Tories? In a scenario where we cannot revoke then do they tip to abstain?
It's the get out clause for everyone keen to avoid No Deal Brexit.
With this is mind, we now need to think at one level of remove. You see, this is probably (possibly) acceptable to the DUP. So, Corbyn loses his ability to bring down the government. And therefore the chance of his become PM.
It's possible, but it would imply the most sudden and radical re-ordering of the party political system in British history.
Intrigued to see how many MPs actually back the deal.
Edited extra bit: assuming there is a vote, of course.
https://www.thesun.ie/news/1462486/what-is-the-new-public-services-card-what-do-we-need-it-for-and-how-do-we-get-it/
The Irish passport card is also a handy photocard you can use for travel in the EEA area. It performs a similar function to a national ID card proving you are Irish if you travel or relocate in the EU .
https://www.dfa.ie/passportcard/
It can be done with some effort and creativity! Just don't call it a national ID card - call it an NHS and public services card.
Must be in another universe, far away.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6474041/Roman-Abramovich-list-six-Putin-linked-Russian-oligarchs-targeted-UK-intelligence.html
Shows how poor May's negotiating tactics were.
If only we had a Thatcher in charge with some sort of backbone. Or even a Mandelson.
Yellow weskits, or yer actual hurled cobblestone?
But - the prospect of revocation will keep Labour hoping for a change of heart until it's too late to do anything.
https://twitter.com/eoinyk/status/1071429536250847234
Whatever the outcome it would almost certainly be a complete mess, and we'd be in the political equivalent of a state of civil war over Europe for years afterwards.
There is no evidence of Centrism attracting anything like that.
Depends how devoted they really are to the cause of saving the UK's membership of an organisation that most voters regard either with ambivalence or contempt. You'd think it would be a suicidal course, but if the Pro-EU MPs had any real understanding of their own constituents then they'd never in a million years have voted to put the EU Referendum Act on the statute book in the first place.
I suspect it might be the first march we'd have been on together....
Given that, a second referendum would be a complete waste of time. I mean, you could argue that all future referendums are a waste of time, because Parliament clearly doesn't feel obligated to implement results it doesn't agree with, but in any event the General Election that would follow the second referendum would effectively be a third referendum as well.
It really doesn’t matter whether the EU will renegotiate or not. It matters that MPs vote down May’s deal which is simply awful just to get rid of May. Hopefully she’ll be replaced by a Brexiteer other than Boris and then we’ll either have a hard Brexit, fears about which are hugely exaggerated, or we’ll have a Canada type trade deal which would be best all round.
We can’t have a Brexit constructed simply to satisfy the Republic of Ireland and following Norway’s model is a total waste of time. It gives us nothing.
Getting rid of May is the key to a sensible outcome on Brexit and a Tory fight back against Labour.
Yet Prodi makes a valuable point - it IS about identity and culture, about the kind of UK (if it is that) in which we want to live and the kind of society we want to have.
The LEAVE vote (of which I was a tiny part) was indicative of a rejection of the status quo both in terms of the economic model but also the societal and governmental model. For all the statistics and measurements, there are too many people for whom life is, in relative terms, "nasty, brutish and short".
I'm opposed to another vote on the EU because all that would do is re-hash the old arguments and I'm not sure a GE with all its tribalism would help either. Corbyn offers an alternative which has a superficial feel but I'm far from convinced his State-led solutions, well being though they may be, are any kind of answer.
As we see from the debate about the provision of social care for vulnerable adults and children, there is no small amount of goodwill out there but ultimately a pervasive sense that "someone else" has to pick up the tab. It may well be in order to provide the dignity and social cohesion we speak our individual expectations of high living standards may have to be compromised.
Lets have the choice other nations do - a left wing Corbyn party, a right wing Farage/JRM/Boris party, the Chuka/Blair/Soubry/Clarke globalist centre party, a social democrat party for Labour moderates, the Christian Dems/centre right mainstream party (what is left of the Tories), Batten's UKIP and the Lib Dems etc
Can it be worse? Surely no government - as per Sweden - can't be any worse than what we have!
But anyway, that's getting a long way ahead of ourselves. The first step is whether we're right about the deal getting voted down, the second is whether May jumps or is pushed, and then the third is whether a viable Brexiteer candidate, willing to commit to No Deal if they can't get what they want from the EU (which they won't,) can gather the magic 106 votes needed to make the Tory leadership run-off. Then we can start seriously discussing the end game.
There is nothing to stop the EU negotiating trade; presenting both documents together and simply sign the trade deal immediately after the withdrawal agreement.
BBC presenter asks what should be on the ballot paper.
Response - I don't know and that is not for me to decide!
And there of course is the question on one can answer clearly
How about which would you prefer
Leave under the following options (please picK only one))
Norway +
Norway ++
May's horrible deal
let's crash out, starve and see patient's die in the NHS due to a lack of drugs
Canada +
Canada ++
or
Remain
with the top choice winning using first past the post?!
They don't want to have to work with other people, they want the freedom to implement their own agenda unchecked.
You can argue til the cows come home about the relative merits of proportional and majoritarian systems, but the important point is that our legislators won't change a system that offers their faction a shot at untrammelled power. Why would they?
There have been Conservatives "interested" in "talking" about PR and especially so for local elections but never for Westminster.
There are various PR systems out there at local level including in London, Northern Ireland and Scotland. PR for English local elections might be a realistic option in the next few years.
The deal is dead.
https://twitter.com/pamfoundation/status/1071431195328688133?s=21
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/46492287/alastair-campbell-told-to-shut-up-during-newsnight-brexit-debate
The reason TM deal is hated by so many is the full on fight between the ultra brexiteers and ultra remainers, with those of us seeking compromise ignored. Indeed in a reply to our letter to our MP he tried to justify voting against the deal on the grounds that it is not the same as being in the EU. Well that is the point but rather than openly say to my wife and I he wants Brexit stopped he obsuscated and said he will vote against deal. He is a conservative mp
As far as your campaign to get an ERG member leader of my party in place of TM that will not happen. If TM resigns or loses a vnoc the conservative mps will make certain unity candidates will be put to the members. If Johnson (I no longer refer to him as Boris) by some chance was elected upto 50 conservative mps would resign the whip
Just heard that Priti Patel has threatened Ireland with food sanctions unless they change their mind and negotiate the backstop. What is is with the ERG that they seem so intellectually challenged. To raise the spectre of food shortages to Ireland who starved under the potato famine is just crass
https://twitter.com/LouisDegenhardt/status/1071443688130256896
May is done for. That deal will never pass. If she persists in trying to hammer it through after Parliament rejects it then she will still be toppled as Prime Minister, because she'll end up destroying her own party.
(Note: given my past record in making predictions, the deal will probably now pass and May will win a snap election after Brexit with a 100 seat majority)
I've been saying this as often as I can all along!
As a rule, systems with large numbers of parties legitimize extremist parties but at the same time almost always ends up being a centrist stitch up for the actual Government. This tends to lead to more people toing for extremist parties whilst at the same time becoming more and more frustrated with the system that will not allow them any real power. I believe it is for this reason we see more extremist activity in Europe than we do in the UK. The broad church effect of our two parties generally accommodates almost the whole spectrum of political view from extreme left to extreme right without legitimising the extremist wings.
It is a system that only really fails on issues where the centrist political view is at odds with the overwhelming view of the public - as in the issue of the EU. The political consensus was so wedded to the idea that membership of the EU was an unalloyed good thing that they failed to realise the public at large did not share this view (Even most Remainers seem to have been of the view that the EU was at best a necessary evil). Hence the rise of a movement outside the scope of mainstream politics.
That's pointless, she has already said we cannot get anything else so why not try someone else, but she can at least say that is what she intends to do. Anything else requires an assurance she has enough party support for that action, and she doesn't have that for either a GE or a referendum.
Although, it would probably just end up forming a queue to have a go at Michael "Since Ed Balls left, the Most Punchable Face In Politics" Gove.....
At an event in Airdrie, John McDonnell pledged that a Labour government would restore trade union rights by repealing legislation that undermines the ability of workers to take “collective action and acts of solidarity”.
It is interesting that you, as someone who is a life long genuine EUphile who treats his home as Europe rather than just the countries within it, are far more measured in your view of the effects of No Deal than those who seem to be bouncing back and forth between Leave and Remain. There seems to be a particular form of soft Remainer/soft Leaver who sees leaps on every story of catastrophe as if it were gospel whilst displaying a schizophrenic attitude to the basic question of stay or leave.
Personally, whilst I have no idea what effect it will have on the vote on Tuesday, I find Prodi's comments very welcoming and repeat my assertion that, on the whole, the main negotiators on the EU side have played a opening batsman's innings - a fair and gentlemanly game but played with a straight bat. I genuinely admire Barnier for his performance.