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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate TMay’s chances of getting the Brexit deal agreed

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    A lot of don't knows there (note that the main questions are only asked of the 71% who have noticed the deal in the first place), but overall broadly a pretty even split without mnuch enthusiasm for anything.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    Wasn't there an emergency election in December 1910?
  • kle4 said:

    Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.

    Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?

    No deal. You seem to think it is all nothing but a bluff, and do not account that it might not be. They've already risked no deal by insisting on the backstop once. When people are rejected positions tend to harden. Why would the EU back down on something they insist is fundamental, particularly when they are taking comfort in the assumption we will be hurt more and will come crawling back?
    Until now they've not risked no deal so far by insisting on the backstop as they were confident (rightly so) that May would back down.

    On the subject of rejection, you're right and the initial Brexit vote itself was taken that way, quite naturally. But thankfully the timing works very well for this. Tensions will be highest and rejection will occur at the vote, mid December. Then . . . nothing will happen. We all go home for Christmas, have the New Year. Most likely the Tory MPs will whittle down the candidates for May's successor before Christmas with the members vote [if it gets that far this time] in the New Year. That delays talks to resolve this mess to occur in January. With no doubt civil servants talking between themselves before then looking for a face-saving solution that satisfies everyone.

    When talks resume in the New Year, people will all have had a festive break and we'll be in the year Brexit happens with the clock very much ticking, pressure will be on everyone to reach a mutually-acceptable deal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    kle4 said:

    Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.

    Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?

    No deal. You seem to think it is all nothing but a bluff, and do not account that it might not be. They've already risked no deal by insisting on the backstop once. When people are rejected positions tend to harden. Why would the EU back down on something they insist is fundamental, particularly when they are taking comfort in the assumption we will be hurt more and will come crawling back?
    Until now they've not risked no deal so far by insisting on the backstop as they were confident (rightly so) that May would back down.
    Remember Barnier's been meeting with MPs from across the HoC all along so the idea the Commission will be surprised by this doesn't hold water.
  • I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.
  • Those accusing Survation of push polling owe them an apology.

    62% of Con voters want MPs to vote for the deal.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    Windrush.
    Go home immigrants vans
    Lying that people can't be deported if they have cats
    Trying to force companies to publish how many non-brits they hire
    Attempting to make children of immigrants go to the back of school place queues.

    May's deep, deep hatred of all immigrants is the one thread that links everything she's ever done in office.

    I think my characterisation of her as a vindictive, xenophobic, incompetent personality-void is a pretty fair assessment of her character.
  • May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    I wouldn't call her a hag, that's personal and nasty, but the rest of the characterisation is spot on. If you have half an hour to waste watch her 2015 Conference Speech. It was shockingly xenophobic and completely anti-immigration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2018
    Corbyn wants Brexit TV debate with May before I'm a Celebrity finale

    Labour is pushing for Jeremy Corbyn to face Theresa May in an hour-long head-to-head Brexit debate on ITV on Sunday 9 December, in a primetime slot before the finale of I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    It's beginning to feel a lot like fitna!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    * But Putin thinks it's a great idea
    * And Trump thinks it's a great idea.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    kle4 said:

    Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.

    Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?

    No deal. You seem to think it is all nothing but a bluff, and do not account that it might not be. They've already risked no deal by insisting on the backstop once. When people are rejected positions tend to harden. Why would the EU back down on something they insist is fundamental, particularly when they are taking comfort in the assumption we will be hurt more and will come crawling back?
    Until now they've not risked no deal so far by insisting on the backstop as they were confident (rightly so) that May would back down.

    On the subject of rejection, you're right and the initial Brexit vote itself was taken that way, quite naturally. But thankfully the timing works very well for this. Tensions will be highest and rejection will occur at the vote, mid December. Then . . . nothing will happen. We all go home for Christmas, have the New Year. Most likely the Tory MPs will whittle down the candidates for May's successor before Christmas with the members vote [if it gets that far this time] in the New Year. That delays talks to resolve this mess to occur in January. With no doubt civil servants talking between themselves before then looking for a face-saving solution that satisfies everyone.

    When talks resume in the New Year, people will all have had a festive break and we'll be in the year Brexit happens with the clock very much ticking, pressure will be on everyone to reach a mutually-acceptable deal.
    The EU have made quite clear they are not renegotiating any further and the backstop is non negotiable, so a Tory leadership election fiddles while Rome burns and if May's Deal is rejected delays No Deal Brexit preparations even more making No Deal catastrophic rather than merely disastrous for the economy and supplies of food and medicines etc and lorry queues at Dover.


  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited November 2018

    I don't remember, but No Deal hasn't always been more popular than May's deal, has it?

    It's now the least preferred option available, but it's amazing that even No Deal is more popular.

    Yes, three way polling ever since Justine Greening first framed it that way has always been:
    1. Remain
    2. No Deal
    3. Deal
    ERM,It wasnt her . It was my first PB post. Nov 25 2016.
    Still want vindication from the PB deities...
  • May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    No I think it is pretty spot on. She has always been horrendously authoritarian and openly, virulently hostile to migrants. Now either this was genuine hostility in which case shame on her or it was playing to the anti-immigrant lobby in which case even more shame on her.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited November 2018

    Corbyn wants Brexit TV debate with May before I'm a Celebrity finale

    Labour is pushing for Jeremy Corbyn to face Theresa May in an hour-long head-to-head Brexit debate on ITV on Sunday 9 December, in a primetime slot before the finale of I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here.

    I'm not sure she'll even be PM before I'm A Celebrity finale...

    Could be more like; I'm An Ex-Prime Minister. Get Me Out Of Here :D
  • I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    dixiedean said:

    I don't remember, but No Deal hasn't always been more popular than May's deal, has it?

    It's now the least preferred option available, but it's amazing that even No Deal is more popular.

    Yes, three way polling ever since Justine Greening first framed it that way has always been:
    1. Remain
    2. No Deal
    3. Deal
    ERM,It wasnt her . It was my first PB post. Nov 25 2016.
    Ok, she was the first public figure to propose a three-way referendum which is why they started polling it.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The thing is, if you want to be a May apologist, then by all means do so.

    But at least have the guts and decency to own all the horrifically, petty, nasty, mean-spirited things she's said and done about immigrants over her career.

    There are two threads that define May's miserable career: xenophobic spite and really screwing things up in a determined way.

    If you're preparing to fight and die alongside this woman, please make sure you're at least honest about the temperament and tone of the woman you're defending.
  • So it sounds like it could get worse. May could bow to the inevitable. Have the first four days of debate on the deal but not the vote on the 5th. The deal gets savaged but not rejected. May then goes to the scheduled EUCO on 13th/14th with everyone having seen the coverage of Commons debate and she asks for help. Thus denying us the national laxative of her resignation.

    Alternatively if she is dispatched quickly ( she's in Argentina on Fri/Sat. Shades of Thatcher in Paris ) the new PM could cancel the vote and also go to EUCO and reopen things. Constitutionally the government that signed off on the deal would no longer exist and the commons wouldn't have endorsed it either.

    More fudge and delay.

    But at some point if she wants this deal to be the basis for the WA she has to present it to Parliament and allow the vote. Legally she cannot avoid that as it was written into law as part of the Article 50 vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018

    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.

    Not really true, Remain only beats the Deal 46% to 37% but Remain beats No Deal by a more comfortable 50% to 40%

    Ashcroft's poll also had Deal ahead of No Deal
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The SDP, still using the same logo as in 1981 when they were formed.

    https://sdp.org.uk/people/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Corbyn wants Brexit TV debate with May before I'm a Celebrity finale

    Labour is pushing for Jeremy Corbyn to face Theresa May in an hour-long head-to-head Brexit debate on ITV on Sunday 9 December, in a primetime slot before the finale of I’m a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here.

    I hope it happens, will be good to see the two old stubborn rhinos face off against each other in something longer than PMQs.
  • May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    It's nice to be nice but can you find anything in there that's factually incorrect?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.

    Not really true, Remain only beats the Deal 46% to 37% but Remain beats No Deal by a more comfortable 50% to 40%

    Ashcroft's poll also had Deal ahead of No Deal
    I'm surprised and amazed, that even after all the warnings and threats and vast buckets of ordure poured over No Deal, it's *still* more popular than May's deal.
  • May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    It's nice to be nice but can you find anything in there that's factually incorrect?
    Windrush started under Labour, for starters....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    It's nice to be nice but can you find anything in there that's factually incorrect?
    Calling her a "vile old hag" is a matter of opinion...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    I wouldn't call her a hag, that's personal and nasty, but the rest of the characterisation is spot on. If you have half an hour to waste watch her 2015 Conference Speech. It was shockingly xenophobic and completely anti-immigration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
    If it was as xenophobic as that I'm surprised Cameron didn't sack her, being a liberal Conservative as he often described himself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    It's nice to be nice but can you find anything in there that's factually incorrect?
    Nobody's perfect.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    AndyJS said:

    The SDP, still using the same logo as in 1981 when they were formed.

    https://sdp.org.uk/people/

    Amazing. The Sentinelese of British politics.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    The SDP, still using the same logo as in 1981 when they were formed.

    https://sdp.org.uk/people/

    Amazing. The Sentinelese of British politics.
    They're now calling themselves Eurosceptic whereas they were of course the most pro-Europe party in the 1980s.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    It's beginning to feel a lot like fitna!
    For Is There No Alternative?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018
    No Deal beats Remain with Tories and Others, voters earning under £20,000 a year, voters with NQ Level 1 only and over 45s and in the South.


    Remain leads with everyone else. The Deal has the same support as No Deal but voters in the Midlands back the Deal over Remain but not No Deal over Remain. Tory voters also back the Deal over No Deal by 48% to 39%.


    England backs Remain over No Deal 50% to 40%, Scotland backs Remain over No Deal 61% to 27%, Wales backs Remain over No Deal 40% to 35% but apparently Northern Ireland backs No Deal over Remain by 79% to 18% so maybe the DUP are onto something!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    I wouldn't call her a hag, that's personal and nasty, but the rest of the characterisation is spot on. If you have half an hour to waste watch her 2015 Conference Speech. It was shockingly xenophobic and completely anti-immigration.
    In the same government Fallon was talking about the UK being "swamped" by migrants with towns "under siege". Hammond said we were "wide open” to "freeloading" by EU citizens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    HYUFD said:

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes

    They need an election to make that move. It is a 180 degree shift from the Manifesto they were elected on last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Boris leads as May's preferred successor on 18%, then Mogg on 9%, Javid and Hunt on 7% and Rudd and Gove on 4%
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    I don't remember, but No Deal hasn't always been more popular than May's deal, has it?

    It's now the least preferred option available, but it's amazing that even No Deal is more popular.

    Yes, three way polling ever since Justine Greening first framed it that way has always been:
    1. Remain
    2. No Deal
    3. Deal
    ERM,It wasnt her . It was my first PB post. Nov 25 2016.
    Ok, she was the first public figure to propose a three-way referendum which is why they started polling it.
    Well thanks kind Sir. And FWIW I thought,as a lurker, you were a deluded fanatic .You may well be right .
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33

    Those accusing Survation of push polling owe them an apology.

    62% of Con voters want MPs to vote for the deal.
    Pretty dodgy poll (some of the phrasing of those questions was fishy as all hell) with even dodgier reporting from the Mail though. I think maybe by push-polling people are thinking of the lesser crime of leading questions, which it certainly had in spades.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Corbyn and McDonnell have never been closer to power than now. They can only benefit from the current Tory crisis.
  • Some strange responses in that poll.

    Q3. From what you have seen or heard so far, do you support or oppose the UK Government's agreement?

    All Support: 37%
    Neither support or oppose: 26%
    All Oppose: 35%

    Q4. MPs are to vote on the Government's Brexit withdrawal agreement on the 11th December,  how would you like MPs to vote?

    For the Deal: 41%
    Against the Deal: 38%

    And yet as others have noted Deal comes out worst against both Remain and No Deal in any referendum question.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    No Deal beats Remain with Tories and Others, voters earning under £20,000 a year, voters with NQ Level 1 only and over 45s and in the South.


    Remain leads with everyone else. The Deal has the same support as No Deal but voters in the Midlands back the Deal over Remain but not No Deal over Remain.


    England backs Remain over No Deal 50% to 40%, Scotland backs Remain over No Deal 61% to 27%, Wales backs Remain over No Deal 40% to 35% but apparently Northern Ireland backs No Deal over Remain by 79% to 18% so maybe the DUP are onto something!

    Have they forgotten to poll the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland with this poll...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    No I think it is pretty spot on. She has always been horrendously authoritarian and openly, virulently hostile to migrants. Now either this was genuine hostility in which case shame on her or it was playing to the anti-immigrant lobby in which case even more shame on her.
    +1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    I wouldn't call her a hag, that's personal and nasty, but the rest of the characterisation is spot on. If you have half an hour to waste watch her 2015 Conference Speech. It was shockingly xenophobic and completely anti-immigration.
    In the same government Fallon was talking about the UK being "swamped" by migrants with towns "under siege". Hammond said we were "wide open” to "freeloading" by EU citizens.
    Why were the Tories bleating so much about immigration when they were the government. Sure I can understand it in opposition but when you hold all the great offices of state; I really really didn't understand the point.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
  • AndyJS said:

    May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.

    She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.

    Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.

    ??? Had a few drinks there? I don't think she's in the right job, but your characterisation is bizarrely nasty.
    I wouldn't call her a hag, that's personal and nasty, but the rest of the characterisation is spot on. If you have half an hour to waste watch her 2015 Conference Speech. It was shockingly xenophobic and completely anti-immigration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoiuCPxHk1E
    If it was as xenophobic as that I'm surprised Cameron didn't sack her, being a liberal Conservative as he often described himself.
    I was too. I was disappointed but then he threw a bone to anti-immigration crowds and had the 100k limit in his manifesto. Plus with the referendum coming up, I don't think sacking his Home Secretary months before that would have been a smart move.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Barnesian said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
    Boris won't do that.
  • JayWJayW Posts: 33

    JayW said:

    JayW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Barnesian, @Foxy and the like

    You know, if Remain were to win 70:30 or somesuch, you might have a point. But it won't. If it were to win, it would be 52:48.

    Politics would not go back to normal. The Charlatans would not be exposed. Once you've seen Pandora's box, you can't unsee it.

    The best Remain can hope for is EFTA/EEA. That's it. Maybe in the long-term that could get parlayed into Associate Membership. But that's as close as it's ever going to get for the UK as part of the EU.

    I know you'd love this to be true Robert but it isn't. Brexit is on borrowed time. Already a small but firm majority wishes it would go away, and that figure is only going in one direction.
    Wishful thinking from you there Jay I am afraid. As Robert says even if Remain did win it would be by a tiny majority and would just cause more chaos and anger.
    Why in the event of losing a democratic vote should the leavers be any more chaotic and angry than remainers after the first vote? Given the majority of leavers are of pensionable age I think we can rest easy in our beds at the prospect of some kind of terrifying violent insurgency.
    Because it would not be a democratic vote. It would be the overturning of a vote that had not even been enacted based on scare stories and Parliamentary opposition. It will be the destruction of democracy in this country not its renewal. As I find myself saying every day to deluded Remainers on here, if you think it will solve anything you are living on another planet.

    This is amply illustrated by your claims about the age of Leave voters. Whilst most pensioners voted Leave it doesn't mean most Leave voters were pensioners.

    46% of 25-49 year olds voted Leave
    60% of 50-64 year olds voted Leave

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

    You are blinded by your own bias
    I admit I was slightly exaggerating for effect and to be an annoying idiot. But I believe the tipping point in terms of majority was around the age of 55. So certainly in a straight up battle of physical fitness on the streets I think Remainers would have the edge. Most younger leave voters could take it or leave it though, it was more of an anti-establishment vote than specifically a eurosceptic one. Those who are ideologically obsessed by it are primarily in the zone of aging floridity.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    stjohn said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    It's beginning to feel a lot like fitna!
    For Is There No Alternative?
    It was a rather laboured Arabic pun. Fitna (فتن) means catastrophic civil war. In a historical context it refers to the internal disputes inside the Caliphate that led to the Sunni/Shia schism.
  • Barnesian said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
    He's said that in the context of rejecting May's deal, not in the context of endorsing Remain.

    Your hypothetical is a non-starter because the ECJ and EU Council would never endorse a revocation of A50 stated in advance to be returned to.
  • Do Wade through the Survation figures if you can. ( Thanks Edmund ) I don't think it's push polling overall there are two deeply inelegant questions and one where the ordering will likely be a factor. But that's within a long set of questions and all the others are neutral.

    The only good news for May is the agreement isn't as unpopular as you think.

    The bad news for May is the support for the deal seems to be little more than it's something rather than nothing. And it's no where near high enough - yet - to override strongly opposed MPs.

    The Mail's front-page summation of the poll is deeply disengenous. But that's their right and not Survation fault.
  • Barnesian said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
    That only works if it turns out A50 can be revoked unilaterally, which I don't think it will. I'm not sure everyone on the EU side would agree if he's still saying Brexit is on.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    stjohn said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    It's beginning to feel a lot like fitna!
    For Is There No Alternative?
    Fuchsia is the new Amethyst
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.

    Not really true, Remain only beats the Deal 46% to 37% but Remain beats No Deal by a more comfortable 50% to 40%

    Ashcroft's poll also had Deal ahead of No Deal
    I'm surprised and amazed, that even after all the warnings and threats and vast buckets of ordure poured over No Deal, it's *still* more popular than May's deal.
    It isn't, Remain beats No Deal more comfortably than it beats May's Deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Deal beats Remain with Tories and Others, voters earning under £20,000 a year, voters with NQ Level 1 only and over 45s and in the South.


    Remain leads with everyone else. The Deal has the same support as No Deal but voters in the Midlands back the Deal over Remain but not No Deal over Remain.


    England backs Remain over No Deal 50% to 40%, Scotland backs Remain over No Deal 61% to 27%, Wales backs Remain over No Deal 40% to 35% but apparently Northern Ireland backs No Deal over Remain by 79% to 18% so maybe the DUP are onto something!

    Have they forgotten to poll the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland with this poll...
    I think they must have sampled the Foster family
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
    He's said that in the context of rejecting May's deal, not in the context of endorsing Remain.

    Your hypothetical is a non-starter because the ECJ and EU Council would never endorse a revocation of A50 stated in advance to be returned to.
    You're almost certainly correct. It was a "suppose" not a prediction.

    But I'll bookmark just in case :)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.

    Not really true, Remain only beats the Deal 46% to 37% but Remain beats No Deal by a more comfortable 50% to 40%

    Ashcroft's poll also had Deal ahead of No Deal
    I'm surprised and amazed, that even after all the warnings and threats and vast buckets of ordure poured over No Deal, it's *still* more popular than May's deal.
    It isn't, Remain beats No Deal more comfortably than it beats May's Deal
    *ahem*
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Dura_Ace said:

    stjohn said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    AndyJS said:

    I don't think we've ever had a governmental crisis over the Christmas period before in this country.

    It's beginning to feel a lot like fitna!
    For Is There No Alternative?
    It was a rather laboured Arabic pun. Fitna (فتن) means catastrophic civil war. In a historical context it refers to the internal disputes inside the Caliphate that led to the Sunni/Shia schism.
    Good pun. I'd not heard of the word before.

    :-)

  • Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    Added to that many of the politicians who backed it opportunistically now think it was a stupid idea and would be happy for a way out.
    No they think May's idea is a stupid idea, they don't think Brexit is. May's idea will be dead soon and so will her career.

    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?
    I think Boris has said that remaining is better than May's deal. We know he's a bit AC/DC on the EU.

    Suppose Boris becomes PM and announces that the Tory Party should be concentrating on defeating Corbyn. Brexit is temporarily broken so we should remain for the time being while the fight is taken to Corbyn. Boris legislates to revoke A50 without a referendum. The intention is to return to it some time later after Corbyn is decisively defeated under Boris's inspired leadership.
    He's said that in the context of rejecting May's deal, not in the context of endorsing Remain.

    Your hypothetical is a non-starter because the ECJ and EU Council would never endorse a revocation of A50 stated in advance to be returned to.
    You're almost certainly correct. It was a "suppose" not a prediction.

    But I'll bookmark just in case :)
    Kudos to you, people don't often say that here. Refreshing when someone does. :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes

    They need an election to make that move. It is a 180 degree shift from the Manifesto they were elected on last year.
    The Tories did not win a majority on that policy, it is a hung parliament and the main opposition, Labour backs permanent Customs Union as does the third biggest party, the SNP (just with permanent Single Market too in the case of the latter)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    No Deal beats Remain with Tories and Others, voters earning under £20,000 a year, voters with NQ Level 1 only and over 45s and in the South.


    Remain leads with everyone else. The Deal has the same support as No Deal but voters in the Midlands back the Deal over Remain but not No Deal over Remain.


    England backs Remain over No Deal 50% to 40%, Scotland backs Remain over No Deal 61% to 27%, Wales backs Remain over No Deal 40% to 35% but apparently Northern Ireland backs No Deal over Remain by 79% to 18% so maybe the DUP are onto something!

    Have they forgotten to poll the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland with this poll...
    I think they must have sampled the Foster family
    +1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    I wonder whether Brexit could be cancelled without causing a surge in support for populist parties.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    No they won't as they have no alternative Deal and most Tory MPs oppose No Deal.

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes
    If the cabinet think this is the best way forward, could it lead to Hammond taking over as interim Tory leader and PM?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    No they won't as they have no alternative Deal and most Tory MPs oppose No Deal.

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes
    If the cabinet think this is the best way forward, could it lead to Hammond taking over as interim Tory leader and PM?
    It would have to be by coronation as he could not win the members' vote but he may not last long as the DUP could still pull the plug anyway, in which case it could end up Corbyn PM doing Corbyn's Brexit
  • It's remarkable seeing supposedly 'liberal' people reacting with shock to those of us who reject May's nasty attitude towards immigrants. This is the woman behind the despicable 'go home' vans, the woman who thought it OK to treat EU citizens as pawns when Leadsom was saying to give them the right to remain unilaterally as the right thing to do.

    This is the Guardian's view of that horrible speech I linked to: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/06/guardian-view-on-theresa-may-conservative-party-conference-speech-nasty-party
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes

    They need an election to make that move. It is a 180 degree shift from the Manifesto they were elected on last year.
    The Tories did not win a majority on that policy, it is a hung parliament and the main opposition, Labour backs permanent Customs Union as does the third biggest party, the SNP (just with permanent Single Market too in the case of the latter)
    That position did win a majority. The Tories won a majority in Great Britain where they stood on that platform, the DUP won a majority in Northern Ireland where they stood on that platform.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    I wonder whether Brexit could be cancelled without causing a surge in support for populist parties.
    No, indeed Trump's former strategist Steve Bannon is preparing plans and funding for a Tommy Robinson style EDL party taking over from UKIP (Batten has already appointed Robinson as his aide) which would probably get about 15-20% if Brexit was reversed with free movement remaining. It would be a British version of the Lega Nord, Front National, AfD, PVV and Swedish Democrats.

    However that would be the price of Remain and if Remain won a majority in a second vote however narrowly fair enough
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes

    They need an election to make that move. It is a 180 degree shift from the Manifesto they were elected on last year.
    The Tories did not win a majority on that policy, it is a hung parliament and the main opposition, Labour backs permanent Customs Union as does the third biggest party, the SNP (just with permanent Single Market too in the case of the latter)
    That position did win a majority. The Tories won a majority in Great Britain where they stood on that platform, the DUP won a majority in Northern Ireland where they stood on that platform.
    Leaving the customs union was not explicitly in the DUP manifesto I think, although they did back Leave
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    The direction of travel is as important as the precise Survation numbers.

    Whilst Deal still loses head to head vs other options, it's pretty close and as Nick P says there are a lot of Don't Knows.

    Most MPs are opposing the Deal because of the backstop. Yet most of the public won't have even heard of the backstop, let alone have a clue re exactly what it is.

    This means people are opposing the deal because they've heard it's bad / there have been lots of resignations / general atmosphere of chaos, division etc. They aren't opposing it because of any specific details.

    The above suggests to me there is quite a lot of scope for public opinion to change - and that's where the direction of travel is important.
  • HYUFD said:

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll confirms the interviews with the public on BBC and C4 news this evening, voters are moving towards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    No they won't as they have no alternative Deal and most Tory MPs oppose No Deal.

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes
    If the cabinet think this is the best way forward, could it lead to Hammond taking over as interim Tory leader and PM?
    It would have to be by coronation as he could not win the members' vote but he may not last long as the DUP could still pull the plug anyway, in which case it could end up Corbyn PM doing Corbyn's Brexit
    There is zero chance of Hammond having a coronation surely.

    Whoever succeeds May will not make her fatal mistake of screwing over the DUP. Parliamentary arithmetic means the only solution is one the DUP agrees to. In the new year the backstop is fudged out of the agreement and May's deal goes through without either the backstop or May.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    I wonder whether Brexit could be cancelled without causing a surge in support for populist parties.
    That's two different questions in one, the first is whether populism grows or shrinks, and the second is how it arranges itself in political parties.

    I think the answer to the first question is that it grows on a betrayal narrative, but it also grows with basically any actual Brexit, which involves all kinds of compromises with foreigners. I think a referendum-brexit-exit helps a bit, because at least there's a vote (although they'll think there shouldn't have been), but there will be more terrorism either way.

    The second question really depends on how it goes down and who ends up leading the Tories. But I don't think the current situation of no party to the populist side of the Tories having any substantial vote share is sustainable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.

    It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.

    No the Daily Mail is absolutely right and this Survation poll cotowards May's Deal fast
    Keep up the faith HYUFD.

    I don't see how that helps get a deal through when near a hundred Tory MPs will vote against, opposed on terms too significant to u-turn even if the public swing behind it.
    It may convince enough on a second vote though after an initial protest and also win over some Labour waverers. At the end of the day MPs employers are the voters and if they want the Deal over the alternatives that will be the result
    But, of course, May will never be allowed a second vote, so it hardly matters.
    She will, over 200 Tory MPs out of 318 back May and her Deal
    You really are adorable when you're at your most wilfully dense.

    The Tory payroll vote don't support her. They're just biding their time waiting for the axe to fall.

    No PM, having just orchestrated the most brutal public humiliation for a sitting Prime Minister in parliamentary history, will be allowed to just stand up and say "again".

    May will announce her resignation within the hour of the failure of her deal. In the unlikely she does not, her party will announce it for her.
    No they won't as they have no alternative Deal and most Tory MPs oppose No Deal.

    More likely as reported Hammond etc will pressure May to move to back permanent Customs Union for the UK to win Labour votes
    If the cabinet think this is the best way forward, could it lead to Hammond taking over as interim Tory leader and PM?
    It would have to be by coronation as he could not win the d up Corbyn PM doing Corbyn's Brexit
    There is zero chance of Hammond having a coronation surely.

    Whoever succeeds May will not make her fatal mistake of screwing over the DUP. Parliamentary arithmetic means the only solution is one the DUP agrees to. In the new year the backstop is fudged out of the agreement and May's deal goes through without either the backstop or May.
    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union
  • HYUFD said:

    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    What magical foresight do you have to know the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop?

    Please don't say "because ... said so" because of course they would prior to rejection. If they said at this stage we need this backstop unless you reject it in which case we'll proceed without then that would guarantee rejection. *rolleyes*

    Also please don't quote your pathetically absurd mantra that we are only 14% of EU exports when 45% of Irish agricultural exports end in the UK and 80% of overall Irish product exports go into the UK (at least as a land bridge).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    He won't scrap it, he'll just ignore it and borrow more money to pay the fines.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Dura_Ace said:

    Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    He won't scrap it, he'll just ignore it and borrow more money to pay the fines.
    Sadly that's probably true
  • It's remarkable seeing supposedly 'liberal' people reacting with shock to those of us who reject May's nasty attitude towards immigrants. This is the woman behind the despicable 'go home' vans, the woman who thought it OK to treat EU citizens as pawns when Leadsom was saying to give them the right to remain unilaterally as the right thing to do.

    This is the Guardian's view of that horrible speech I linked to: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/06/guardian-view-on-theresa-may-conservative-party-conference-speech-nasty-party

    If politicians had paid more heed to voter concerns over immigration we wouldn’t be in this Brexit mess - barely half a year after this Guardian “how dare she criticise mass migration” critique their whole world view was overturned by people who’d been ignored for too long.
  • It's remarkable seeing supposedly 'liberal' people reacting with shock to those of us who reject May's nasty attitude towards immigrants. This is the woman behind the despicable 'go home' vans, the woman who thought it OK to treat EU citizens as pawns when Leadsom was saying to give them the right to remain unilaterally as the right thing to do.

    This is the Guardian's view of that horrible speech I linked to: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/06/guardian-view-on-theresa-may-conservative-party-conference-speech-nasty-party

    If politicians had paid more heed to voter concerns over immigration we wouldn’t be in this Brexit mess - barely half a year after this Guardian “how dare she criticise mass migration” critique their whole world view was overturned by people who’d been ignored for too long.
    One can address migration without being viciously nasty about it. That's the problem with Remainers though who stereotype leave as being just about xenophobia and May is the worst example of that. A xenophobe herself who was so afraid of Brexit she backed Remain but then leapt on the opportunity to shut down migration while remaining terrified about the economic consequences in the negotiations.
  • It's remarkable seeing supposedly 'liberal' people reacting with shock to those of us who reject May's nasty attitude towards immigrants. This is the woman behind the despicable 'go home' vans, the woman who thought it OK to treat EU citizens as pawns when Leadsom was saying to give them the right to remain unilaterally as the right thing to do.

    This is the Guardian's view of that horrible speech I linked to: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/06/guardian-view-on-theresa-may-conservative-party-conference-speech-nasty-party

    If politicians had paid more heed to voter concerns over immigration we wouldn’t be in this Brexit mess - barely half a year after this Guardian “how dare she criticise mass migration” critique their whole world view was overturned by people who’d been ignored for too long.
    One can address migration without being viciously nasty about it. That's the problem with Remainers though who stereotype leave as being just about xenophobia and May is the worst example of that. A xenophobe herself who was so afraid of Brexit she backed Remain but then leapt on the opportunity to shut down migration while remaining terrified about the economic consequences in the negotiations.
    May starts her speech by congratulating the previous speaker - a refugee and immigrant who had devoted herself to public service, then spends the first third talking about the U.K.s record in helping refugees in Syria. Hardly the speech of a xenophobe.
  • Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541

    Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
  • Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
    I’m sure an apology will be swiftly along.....
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2018

    Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
    Well exactly. European governments spend £10s of Billion on State Aid. Germany spends 4 times what we do as a % of GDP.
  • Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
    I’m sure an apology will be swiftly along.....
    Why would I apologise for being right ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,541

    Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
    Well exactly. European governments spend £10s of Billion on State Aid. Germany spends 4 times what we do as a % of GDP.
    If you read the document, the rules on state aid (the ones you say don't exist) prohibit many things. All of the rules may prove restrictive to a leftist government.

    The fact there are exemptions to the rules does not mean that there are not any rules.
  • AndyJS said:
    AP and others calling it for the GOP, very respectable performance by the Dems but not really close.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/mississippi-senate-runoff-election-results/
  • Theo said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:



    Which is pointless as the EU will not agree the Deal without the backstop, so as I said more likely PM Corbyn and his backstop of permanent Customs Union

    I think finessing a Corbyn government is the EU's goal. They'll be much easier for the EU to deal with as they are not mental over Europe and the Bowler Hat Brigade will be tipped out of the canoe.
    The Corbyn whose first red line will be to scrap the "no state aid" rule?
    There is no " no state aid " rule. You are either lying there or so ignorant of actual EU policy you shouldn't be commenting on it publicly. Nor is this sort of front rank inaccuracy from you an isolated example.
    http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/overview/index_en.html
    Well exactly. European governments spend £10s of Billion on State Aid. Germany spends 4 times what we do as a % of GDP.
    If you read the document, .
    That’s your error, right there....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited November 2018


    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?

    No, I think we have at least one fairly plausible process for parliament and the current PM to get the outcome they support - the obvious one is that parliament pushes the PM into accepting a referendum as the price of getting her deal through.

    I'm not saying that particular path is odds-on, but what we do know is that parliament, the PM and the voters all want the same thing, and there's at least one way for them to get it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941


    The only way Brexit is cancelled is if a Remainer campaigning on cancel Brexit becomes the new Tory leader following a leadership contest. Odds of that?

    No, I think we have at least one fairly plausible process for parliament and the current PM to get the outcome they support - the obvious one is that parliament pushes the PM into accepting a referendum as the price of getting her deal through.

    I'm not saying that particular path is odds-on, but what we do know is that parliament, the PM and the voters all want the same thing, and there's at least one way for them to get it.
    I'm wondering if she starts her opening remarks on the TV debate saying that it'll be put to the people if passed.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 2,182
    AndyJS said:

    I think Brexit is going to be cancelled.

    * The PM thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * Parliament thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The EU Commission thinks it's a stupid idea.
    * The heads of all the other member states think it's a stupid idea.
    * Business leaders think it's a stupid idea.
    * Trade union leaders think it's a stupid idea.

    Why was it happening? Because the voters thought it was a good idea.

    But faced with a specific option, the voters think it's a stupid idea.

    I wonder whether Brexit could be cancelled without causing a surge in support for populist parties.
    Which populist parties? Hard to see UKIP going anywhere now they have gone full-on (neo) fascist.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    HYUFD said:

    So it seems the public prefer a no-deal Brexit to May's deal by 41.2% - 34.7%
    It prefers remaining in the EU to May's Brexit deal by 46.2 - 31.7

    So May's deal is the least preferred option amongst voters.

    That's not *quite* what the Mail story says.

    Not really true, Remain only beats the Deal 46% to 37% but Remain beats No Deal by a more comfortable 50% to 40%

    Ashcroft's poll also had Deal ahead of No Deal
    I'm surprised and amazed, that even after all the warnings and threats and vast buckets of ordure poured over No Deal, it's *still* more popular than May's deal.
    I suspect that it has a big chunk of NOTA support from people who aren't actively supporting the lemming agenda.
  • RobD said:

    I'm wondering if she starts her opening remarks on the TV debate saying that it'll be put to the people if passed.

    I don't think so - I think the game-plan is to publicly do nothing except plan for Brexit and let everybody see her genuinely busting a gut to try to get the deal through. (Which is her actual goal, it's not a trick).

    If they vote the deal through then she wins. If they don't vote the deal through, *then* the next step is, "I tried my best but parliament wouldn't let me do that, so I'll have to talk to people in parliament and see what parliament *will* let me do".

    If she's lucky the letters will go in before or immediately after the vote fails, so if she survives that she'll have maximum freedom of movement to negotiate with other factions in parliament.
  • PS. I think it's just possible that the TV debate is being set up to announce not a referendum but a *general election*, which Corbyn is bound to demand on live television. But it's not really her style.
  • Cicero said:


    Which populist parties? Hard to see UKIP going anywhere now they have gone full-on (neo) fascist.

    Farage could step back in and take it over again any time he liked, though.

    Failing that, if there's a big enough gap in the market I'm sure *someone* will fill it...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    PS. I think it's just possible that the TV debate is being set up to announce not a referendum but a *general election*, which Corbyn is bound to demand on live television. But it's not really her style.

    Even were that her plan, a PM needs to be seen to be in command of events, and it would be madness to set herself up to cave in to an opposition leader's demand like that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    RobD said:

    I'm wondering if she starts her opening remarks on the TV debate saying that it'll be put to the people if passed.

    I don't think so - I think the game-plan is to publicly do nothing except plan for Brexit and let everybody see her genuinely busting a gut to try to get the deal through. (Which is her actual goal, it's not a trick).

    If they vote the deal through then she wins. If they don't vote the deal through, *then* the next step is, "I tried my best but parliament wouldn't let me do that, so I'll have to talk to people in parliament and see what parliament *will* let me do".

    If she's lucky the letters will go in before or immediately after the vote fails, so if she survives that she'll have maximum freedom of movement to negotiate with other factions in parliament.
    It's just as likely that she knows the game is lost, but rather than resign (which isn't her style anyway) knows she needs to press on until she is forced out, relying on history and the inevitable backlash against the assassins (who will also get the blame for any chaos ensuing) to give her a better place in the annals than her predecessor.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    edited November 2018
    We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.

    She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.

    Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.

    She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,

    Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.

This discussion has been closed.