150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
One can only conclude that she’s not trying. In which case, what does she plan next?
Nothing. She plans to justify herself against whatever comes after her premiership by saying she worked damn hard on the deal and put the case out there as to why rejecting it would be a mistake.
3% is not really too high. Vote this down and I will call a 2nd referendum AND a GE on the same day would concentrate many minds. However, how she follows through on that threat is another question. Also. Ignore vox pops. They are the worst kind of media manipulation. How many interviews to get those opinions? How were the people selected? By random sample?
To be fair it was quite at random, lots of smiles and shaking of her hand, support and more than a little anger at the mps. The report in the Guardian very much the same.
I do not think there is a desire by the public to replace her like there is on this forum
Indeed the public are less invested with politics than we are.
However if (and it's still an it) the deal is rejected by anything like a three figure majority she needs to go. No ifs, no buts. The PM has to be someone who commands the confidence of the House and if the PM can't carry her signature policy on the most critical issue facing the country then a new leader is needed. That logic applied to Chamberlain even when he won his vote, it certainly applies here.
I am relaxed about her position. She may stay, resign or be vnoc but by the spring she will be replaced but by who, now that is the question. Indeed it is the question as it could happen anytime
Someone on the last thread said the EU would only believe a deal is reached if May and Corbyn both said it was reached. No, a deal is reached the moment whoever leads the Tories at the time (May or A N Other) and Arlene Foster say it is reached. Which given the Commons maths should have been obvious from the start.
You can't guarantee every Tory will fall in line just because Arlene Foster is happy.
Enough will. This solution is unlikely as it stands.
But this is the only solution that is viable. No deal isn't viable, this deal isn't viable, remain isn't viable.
As Sherlock Holmes said Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.
This is improbable but the only solution that is possible. The backstop has to go.
Sadly it wont go - remain it is
It will go, it has to go. Remain isn't an option. They'll replace it with some face-saving alternative, but it has to go in order to get a deal through and they want a deal. If they thought we would fold on this [which they did think] it wouldn't go, but since Parliament won't fold they have to - and they get the other 99% they've screwed out of us through May's failure of a negotiation.
You are banking everything on assuming the EU will not be beholden to its own politics or could ever act irrationally. I hope you are right, but you are essentially saying 'They have to give us what we want because I want them to'. How people can not see that as a giant leap into the dark is beyond me, and people on left and right are doing it. 'They want a deal' is true, but is no different to claims it would be easy because we hold all the cards.
Your first sentence makes plain why the whole concept is preposterous. It will happen, because it has to. That's one heck of a gamble, taking no account of why the EU could well act contrary to its own best interests - everyone is capable of that. It's banking it all on a hope and a prayer.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
George Osborne's words, allegedly, to Cameron, when the Referendum was first mooted, were 'you are crazy'.
These will go down in every history book.
What a f***ing awful mess...
History will certainly not be kind to Cameron, or May for that matter. Cameron could well pip Chamberlain for the title of most disastrous PM in the modern era.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
Seems like it at present. I wonder if there's still a rabbit to be pulled out of a hat somewhere.
Otherwise, the only real positive for May is that expectations are so bad that anything close to 100 - itself pretty awful - can be spun as something to work with.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
George Osborne's words, allegedly, to Cameron, when the Referendum was first mooted, were 'you are crazy'.
These will go down in every history book.
What a f***ing awful mess...
History will certainly not be kind to Cameron, or May for that matter. Cameron could well pip Chamberlain for the title of most disastrous PM in the modern era.
It's interesting that friends of Cameron are suddenly all promoting the Norway option. I think he sees it as his last chance to salvage his reputation over calling the referendum in the first place.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Yes, interviews with the public on both C4 news and BBC news very positive for May tonight, they are fed up and want a Deal done as do businesses. It is the fanatics on both sides Remain and Leave at Westminster who are the problem
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
One can only conclude that she’s not trying. In which case, what does she plan next?
Quite. She is on the campaign stump talking to the public and not MPs. A vote of some kind beckons.
She won't get that chance. A vote on her deal? Bonkers when it is so comprehensively, non partisanly, rejected. So a GE then? One might be coming, but she isn't getting her party, or any party, to back her deal as a campaign position.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
Flint, Mann have already committed effectively to back the Deal so that is 2 there
They have? Wasn't aware of that. Snell, Hoey, Nandy are against. 2 is nowhere near enough. Especially as we were confidently told Labour would whip to abstain or rebel en masse.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
George Osborne's words, allegedly, to Cameron, when the Referendum was first mooted, were 'you are crazy'.
These will go down in every history book.
What a f***ing awful mess...
History will certainly not be kind to Cameron, or May for that matter. Cameron could well pip Chamberlain for the title of most disastrous PM in the modern era.
If anyone still harbours delusions about Boris' complete unsuitability for high office can I recommend the BBC documentary "The Foreign Office" - the expressions on the faces of some of his officials is priceless - one of them even loses his temper with Boris......
This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM
Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland
I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else
Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed
The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of
Indeed. And if that is her plan, why is she off to Argentina for days in this 2 week window? Believe me, none of her oh-so-loyal Cabinet will be going out to bat for her while she is gone.
She has to attend the G20 - This is getting silly
In fairness, my criticism was not of her. Replacing her would solve nothing, and potentially open up new problems of their own. But, if her plan is to appeal over the heads of MPs, then why are none of her Cabinet out there? I can think of only Rudd. It will be open season while she is gone.
I doubt it could be worse but who knows. On a human level I think the abuse she is receiving is unacceptable. She has done her best to meet in the middle but the ultras on both sides have almost certainly felled her.
The second referendum campaign saying 75% are against the deal does not mean, by any stretch of the imagination, 75% want to stay. It is most likely split faily evenly and I just shudder to think of how much anger and fury will follow a campaign to stay
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Britain likes a plucky loser. But if Brexit hits wallets sympathy could melt. One of the biggest factors shaping the Brexit debate is that so far people are not out of pocket.
Weirdly if things had been economically harder, the debate might have been easier.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
If there is a referendum Remain will win it quite easily. Brexiteers are admitting remaining is better than some options, some some leavers will switch to remain and most remainers won't have changed side.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
She has offered nothing to Labour MPs. Nothing. It’s weird.
One can only conclude that she’s not trying. In which case, what does she plan next?
I think she was planning to direct her offer based on the numbers she needed. However, they look to be moving so irresistibly against her at the moment that it would blow away most of her possible Plan Bs.
Well of course it is a rehash. Could still be true of course, project fears can still be broadly true, though they are not always so. It's just part of the process, since not many will believe it.
Though people crying about the percentage loss vs staying in the EU, thereby believing such forecasts, should have to very carefully consider what they want if they are still so blase about risking no deal.
It is a joke is what it is.
Who was the Labour muppet who took that to be an overall fall - not a reduction on overall growth.?
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Yes, interviews with the public on both C4 news and BBC news very positive for May tonight, they are fed up and want a Deal done as do businesses. It is the fanatics on both sides Remain and Leave at Westminster who are the problem
Two years ago we triggered article 50. Since then all that has happened effectively is a negotiation to create a two year window to negotiate a trade deal. Without the backstop we are in no different position than had we started negotiation on a trade deal on the day after article 50 was triggered. The backstop is the only thing that prevents us crashing out completely in two years. Does anyone really want to be negotiating a trade deal against a deadline? It’s madness.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Why waste time on a referendum? Just call it off.
MPs will want democratic cover for any decision they make here. They, collectively, didn't want to leave at all but still triggered A50 because of a public vote. They can legally call it off (assuming A50 can be withdrawn at any rate) but would not want to do so without clear justification from the public. And no, polling does not count, or we would change all governments mid term.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
George Osborne's words, allegedly, to Cameron, when the Referendum was first mooted, were 'you are crazy'.
These will go down in every history book.
What a f***ing awful mess...
History will certainly not be kind to Cameron, or May for that matter. Cameron could well pip Chamberlain for the title of most disastrous PM in the modern era.
Gordon Brown has that title, followed by Eden.
Chamberlain at least built up our armed forces
Not as much as he should have done, and even that was rendered moot by his failure to use them properly.
Admittedly he was still a better PM than Brown, but that's like saying somebody is less batshit crazy than Piers Corbyn.
If May can't get the majority of one needed to pass her deal how on earth is she going to get the two thirds supermajority needed to call a Géneral Election on her deal ?
The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Britain likes a plucky loser. But if Brexit hits wallets sympathy could melt. One of the biggest factors shaping the Brexit debate is that so far people are not out of pocket.
Weirdly if things had been economically harder, the debate might have been easier.
And, ironically, if this goes downhill from here how long before TM deal is seen as a missed opportunity
Well of course it is a rehash. Could still be true of course, project fears can still be broadly true, though they are not always so. It's just part of the process, since not many will believe it.
Though people crying about the percentage loss vs staying in the EU, thereby believing such forecasts, should have to very carefully consider what they want if they are still so blase about risking no deal.
It is a joke is what it is.
Who was the Labour muppet who took that to be an overall fall - not a reduction on overall growth.?
Exhibit A: David Lammy. A rare example of a politician dumber than Andrea Jenkyns. Note that he believed it to be an annual fall of 3.9%.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
Flint, Mann have already committed effectively to back the Deal so that is 2 there
They have? Wasn't aware of that. Snell, Hoey, Nandy are against. 2 is nowhere near enough. Especially as we were confidently told Labour would whip to abstain or rebel en masse.
They won't on the first vote, they may on the second
The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.
None of us sit in the meetings she has with close advisers, but from the outside looking in I've thought for a while that her strategy is to take her premiership day by day, doing whatever it takes to avoid or delay crunch points. And I must say, that's gotten her much further than most people expected.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
Flint, Mann have already committed effectively to back the Deal so that is 2 there
They have? Wasn't aware of that. Snell, Hoey, Nandy are against. 2 is nowhere near enough. Especially as we were confidently told Labour would whip to abstain or rebel en masse.
They won't on the first vote, they may on the second
They may well. If we get that far. If we get to an imminent No Deal situation I would expect Labour to support it.
Only confirms my previous comments. My instinct has been that TM will win public support and mps will receive the anger of the pub if they reject her deal
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
Britain likes a plucky loser. But if Brexit hits wallets sympathy could melt. One of the biggest factors shaping the Brexit debate is that so far people are not out of pocket.
Weirdly if things had been economically harder, the debate might have been easier.
And, ironically, if this goes downhill from here how long before TM deal is seen as a missed opportunity
That might not be good for her reputation. A costly missed opportunity.
I wonder what a poll would say Mail readers think? Is Geordie Gregg getting too far from his readership?
Guido had a story a few days ago: "Torygraph marketing types are planning a sales push in areas of the country that voted Leave. Internally, the initiative has been labelled ‘Project Newcastle’ – because it is all thanks to Geordie…" https://order-order.com/2018/11/23/the-telegraphs-rebirth/
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
If there is a referendum Remain will win it quite easily. Brexiteers are admitting remaining is better than some options, some some leavers will switch to remain and most remainers won't have changed side.
Very interesting vox pops in Wales. Even small numbers rather like focus groups can be quite informative. There seems to be a sense that 1. They were sold a pup and 2. They were embarrassed that they'd bought it.
I wonder what a poll would say Mail readers think? Is Geordie Gregg getting too far from his readership?
Guido had a story a few days ago: "Torygraph marketing types are planning a sales push in areas of the country that voted Leave. Internally, the initiative has been labelled ‘Project Newcastle’ – because it is all thanks to Geordie…" https://order-order.com/2018/11/23/the-telegraphs-rebirth/
The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.
Indeed. I’m staggered the cabinet didn’t twig that this doesn’t look like it will get through....
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland annexed be humiliating?
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
Flint, Mann have already committed effectively to back the Deal so that is 2 there
They have? Wasn't aware of that. Snell, Hoey, Nandy are against. 2 is nowhere near enough. Especially as we were confidently told Labour would whip to abstain or rebel en masse.
They won't on the first vote, they may on the second
They may well. If we get that far. If we get to an imminent No Deal situation I would expect Labour to support it.
Yes, Labour will fire a broadside then fall into line over No Deal
If May can't get a majority of one on her deal in a single up or down vote now on earth would she get a new referendum Act through both houses of parliament ?
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.
There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.
However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.
If May can't get a majority of one on her deal in a single up or down vote now on earth would she get a new referendum Act through both houses of parliament ?
Well of course it is a rehash. Could still be true of course, project fears can still be broadly true, though they are not always so. It's just part of the process, since not many will believe it.
Though people crying about the percentage loss vs staying in the EU, thereby believing such forecasts, should have to very carefully consider what they want if they are still so blase about risking no deal.
It is a joke is what it is.
Who was the Labour muppet who took that to be an overall fall - not a reduction on overall growth.?
Exhibit A: David Lammy. A rare example of a politician dumber than Andrea Jenkyns. Note that he believed it to be an annual fall of 3.9%.
So if the Remain option is 0% impact and the worst case is cumulative 7.6% lower after 15 years, that means ALL options are less than 0.5% worse per annum than Remain. We should have 2 recession cycles in that time which far outweigh that impact, plus all treasury forecasts over the last 15 years have been wrong.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
How do you know it ends free movement?
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
If May can't get the majority of one needed to pass her deal how on earth is she going to get the two thirds supermajority needed to call a Géneral Election on her deal ?
Labour won't vote for her deal, they'll vote for a General Election
It will go, it has to go. Remain isn't an option. They'll replace it with some face-saving alternative, but it has to go in order to get a deal through and they want a deal. If they thought we would fold on this [which they did think] it wouldn't go, but since Parliament won't fold they have to - and they get the other 99% they've screwed out of us through May's failure of a negotiation.
You are banking everything on assuming the EU will not be beholden to its own politics or could ever act irrationally. I hope you are right, but you are essentially saying 'They have to give us what we want because I want them to'. How people can not see that as a giant leap into the dark is beyond me, and people on left and right are doing it. 'They want a deal' is true, but is no different to claims it would be easy because we hold all the cards.
Your first sentence makes plain why the whole concept is preposterous. It will happen, because it has to. That's one heck of a gamble, taking no account of why the EU could well act contrary to its own best interests - everyone is capable of that. It's banking it all on a hope and a prayer.
My dream will come true...because I want it to.
Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.
Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?
Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.
There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.
However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.
Voters do not want another bitterly divisive referendum and the uncertainty of that or a no deal crash out Brexit which could lose them their job and lower their wages and lead to shortages in shops. That is becoming increasingly evident
If May can't get a majority of one on her deal in a single up or down vote now on earth would she get a new referendum Act through both houses of parliament ?
SNP+LD+Remainiac-Lab won't vote for the deal, they'll vote for the deal with a referendum.
It's not a sure thing though, the question is how much Lab she gets, and how much extra Con she loses.
PS I think a bigger problem for her with the referendum route is getting ditched by Tory MPs. If she's lucky they'll pull the trigger first, and she can announce the referendum once she's safe.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
How do you know it ends free movement?
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
The backstop is GB staying in the customs union not the single market which would have required free movement and most voters in Northern Ireland want to stay in the single market and customs union anyway.
It is only fanatics like you so obsessed about the backstop being impure, most voters could not care less
Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
Sounds like a bit of push-polling potentially I'd love to see the questions asked and the order they were asked.
Of course her plan is the best on the table, its the only one on the table. The better one is a renegotiated plan and that's not on the table yet, that takes rejection to get there.
41% to approve and 38% to vote it down is mightily close, especially if there was any push-polling (apologies if that's an offensive thing to suggest) and doesn't reflect Geordie's front page.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
How do you know it ends free movement?
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
The backstop is GB staying in the customs union not the single market which would have required free movement and most voters in Northern Ireland want to stay in the single market and customs union anyway.
It is only fanatics like you so obsessed about the backstop being impure, most voters could not care less
Name a couple of Nothern Ireland MPs that are willing to vote for the backstop please.
Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
Of course her plan is the best on the table, its the only one on the table. The better one is a renegotiated plan and that's not on the table yet, that takes rejection to get there.
Forty-four per cent said the EU would not make further concessions to the UK if Mrs May lost. Nor do voters think a new Tory leader such as Boris Johnson would do any better, with only 25 per cent saying ousting Mrs May would increase the prospects of a better deal.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
If there is a referendum Remain will win it quite easily. Brexiteers are admitting remaining is better than some options, some some leavers will switch to remain and most remainers won't have changed side.
Very interesting vox pops in Wales. Even small numbers rather like focus groups can be quite informative. There seems to be a sense that 1. They were sold a pup and 2. They were embarrassed that they'd bought it.
You are not seeing the ones we are seeing here in Wales then
It will go, it has to go. Remain isn't an option. They'll replace it with some face-saving alternative, but it has to go in order to get a deal through and they want a deal. If they thought we would fold on this [which they did think] it wouldn't go, but since Parliament won't fold they have to - and they get the other 99% they've screwed out of us through May's failure of a negotiation.
You are banking everything on assuming the EU will not be beholden to its own politics or could ever act irrationally. I hope you are right, but you are essentially saying 'They have to give us what we want because I want them to'. How people can not see that as a giant leap into the dark is beyond me, and people on left and right are doing it. 'They want a deal' is true, but is no different to claims it would be easy because we hold all the cards.
Your first sentence makes plain why the whole concept is preposterous. It will happen, because it has to. That's one heck of a gamble, taking no account of why the EU could well act contrary to its own best interests - everyone is capable of that. It's banking it all on a hope and a prayer.
My dream will come true...because I want it to.
Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.
Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?
Probably, to risk No Deal, since everyone (MPs too) seems to be agreed that can't be allowed to happen.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
How do you know it ends free movement?
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
The backstop is GB staying in the customs union not the single market which would have required free movement and most voters in Northern Ireland want to stay in the single market and customs union anyway.
It is only fanatics like you so obsessed about the backstop being impure, most voters could not care less
Name a couple of Nothern Ireland MPs that are willing to vote for the backstop please.
150-200 looks realistic to me. Best case scenario circa 100.
I can't see ANY Labour MPs voting with May. Why antagonise their colleagues and risk deselection. For what?
It's going to be the top end of the range.
Flint, Mann have already committed effectively to back the Deal so that is 2 there
They have? Wasn't aware of that. Snell, Hoey, Nandy are against. 2 is nowhere near enough. Especially as we were confidently told Labour would whip to abstain or rebel en masse.
They won't on the first vote, they may on the second
They may well. If we get that far. If we get to an imminent No Deal situation I would expect Labour to support it.
Yes, Labour will fire a broadside then fall into line over No Deal
Not necessarily. The preferred order is 1 GE. 2 referendum. As per policy at Conference. If the vote goes down it will be VONC time. But, yes. If it is the Noel Edmonds choice it won't be a choice for Labour.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.
Well done ERG......you have made "the impossible" the enemy of "the good enough".
Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.
IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.
Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
How do you know it ends free movement?
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
The backstop is GB staying in the customs union not the single market which would have required free movement and most voters in Northern Ireland want to stay in the single market and customs union anyway.
It is only fanatics like you so obsessed about the backstop being impure, most voters could not care less
No, what I mean is that in the trade negotiations what's to stop the EU from saying we must allow free movement or they won't agree to a deal and they'll invoke the backstop instead?
Macron and that guy from Spain have already been quite clear that they intend to use the backstop to make us suffer during the trade negotiations. Do you think they are lying?
The backstop is like Hague's being stuck in a burning room without any exit's analogy...
These people are not our friends and partners. Everything they are saying and doing is demonstrating that they are actually hostile enemies. We'd be mad to put ourselves in a position of total, potentially never-ending subservience.
Odd that someone who had the good judgement to sack her husband should come up with a plan that's going to be the biggest government defeat in 85 years
Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
Would staying in the EU be humiliating? 47% Yes. 24% No.
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland be annexed be humiliating?
No, as it ends free movement and still leaves the EU which is all most of them cared about, only obsessives cared about trade deals and most have little interest in Northern Ireland other than avoiding a return to the troubles which No Deal could cause
The report from TM visit today was that the farmers, industry, and the political parties back it, only the DUP against and that includes being against their core supporters
Worth noting that this polling turnaround has happened pretty quickly and in spite of the overwhelming criticism of the deal.
There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.
However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.
Voters do not want another bitterly divisive referendum and the uncertainty of that or a no deal crash out Brexit which could lose them their job and lower their wages and lead to shortages in shops. That is becoming increasingly evident
It sure is not evident. The public seem to want plenty of things, contradictory things, yet won't rally behind anything to prevent the various things they do not want, so any 'evident' view is meaningless. What good does it do to not want another divisive referendum if they're not swinging behind any options that take the referendum off the table. They don't want this deal either, not by enough even with push polling.
The public will get another vote on this whether they like it or not. And when offered, they'll vote remain as least confusing choice.
Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.
IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.
Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.
If the deal is going down by 150 to 200 votes, and given the speed these numbers are being inflated ai think we need to be very cautious about them, then don't get on the meaningful vote happening. Anyone taking collective responsibility will have to vote on the wrong side of an historic defeat with all the career implications that come from that. There would be more resignations from the government and the men in grey suits would surely want to avoid the public schism.
I strongly suspect these higher numbers are a form of expectation management but if the deal is going down by those margins don't get on it happening.
The fundamental puzzling question is this: how could the PM, her advisors, her Whips, have read this so wrong? Going down by 10 votes is one thing. But at what point did sombody say "PM, you haven't a hope in hell of getting this through the Commons..."? Because from where I'm sat, it looked a mighty uphill battle the morning after the General Election. When your majority is dependant on the DUP, ploughing on regardless with a negotiating position that would obviously provoke their classic "NOOOO!!!!" was just, well....unfathomable.
Indeed!
I've said here for months May should delegate the Irish backstop negotiations to the DUP. Say to Barnier I'm willing to discuss all UK-EU negotiations with you, but let Varadkar and Foster reach a direct accord on all Irish affairs. Any hint of the backstop could with all honesty have been be greeted with "I'll back it if Foster backs it, but I need her backing to carry Parliament". Plus the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement was one of the local communities taking control anyway and the DUP even reached an accord with Martin McGuinness so it wasn't unreasonable.
The idea that we could just screw over the DUP and get away with it, while simultaneously pissing off half the Tory backbenchers and still carry the bill through Parliament made no sense at all.
Those are *incredibly* leading questions, and Survation was acting unprofessionally and in direct contravention of BPC polling guidelines when it agreed to those precise questions and that precise sequencing.
IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.
Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.
You really don't like the results, do you?
Well, no. Fortunately it seems they aren't the results.
It will go, it has to go. Remain isn't an option. They'll replace it with some face-saving alternative, but it has to go in order to get a deal through and they want a deal. If they thought we would fold on this [which they did think] it wouldn't go, but since Parliament won't fold they have to - and they get the other 99% they've screwed out of us through May's failure of a negotiation.
You are banking everything on assuming the EU will not be beholden to its own politics or could ever act irrationally. I hope you are right, but you are essentially saying 'They have to give us what we want because I want them to'. How people can not see that as a giant leap into the dark is beyond me, and people on left and right are doing it. 'They want a deal' is true, but is no different to claims it would be easy because we hold all the cards.
Your first sentence makes plain why the whole concept is preposterous. It will happen, because it has to. That's one heck of a gamble, taking no account of why the EU could well act contrary to its own best interests - everyone is capable of that. It's banking it all on a hope and a prayer.
My dream will come true...because I want it to.
Yes it is a leap into the dark but it is a leap our MPs look set to make. Kudos to them.
Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?
No deal. You seem to think it is all nothing but a bluff, and do not account that it might not be. They've already risked no deal by insisting on the backstop once. When people are rejected positions tend to harden. Why would the EU back down on something they insist is fundamental, particularly when they are taking comfort in the assumption we will be hurt more and will come crawling back?
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.
Well done ERG......you have made "the impossible" the enemy of "the good enough".
TBF this isn't necessarily the ERG's fault. I don't think there was ever a majority for any specific version of Leave. The referendum result was won by showing the voters an unopened box, and getting a combination of people who wanted a cat and people who wanted a cat-skin rug.
WTF!? I've never had any respect for the Daily Mail but how could it sink so low as to misrepresent this? It's embarrassing.
We asked those aware of the draft agreement whether they support or oppose it, only 27% said they supported it while just under half (49%) were opposed. The remaining respondents said they neither supported nor opposed it, or they did not know.
Funny thing though, that brief moment of *hope* on HYUFD and Carlotta's face until everyone realised it was just the Daily Mail talking out of its arse.
It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.
Anyone who has the boot put in by Trump can't be all bad. There seems to be a lot of public sympathy and support for May. Not that it'll help her get her plan through. Anyway a second referendum followed by calling the whole thing off now has to be favourite.
If there is a referendum Remain will win it quite easily. Brexiteers are admitting remaining is better than some options, some some leavers will switch to remain and most remainers won't have changed side.
Very interesting vox pops in Wales. Even small numbers rather like focus groups can be quite informative. There seems to be a sense that 1. They were sold a pup and 2. They were embarrassed that they'd bought it.
You are not seeing the ones we are seeing here in Wales then
Not by May but the original Leave campaign. I've seen two now . are the ones on welsh TV different?
Comments
Be honest. That was on your bucket list? No?
Your first sentence makes plain why the whole concept is preposterous. It will happen, because it has to. That's one heck of a gamble, taking no account of why the EU could well act contrary to its own best interests - everyone is capable of that. It's banking it all on a hope and a prayer.
My dream will come true...because I want it to.
Otherwise, the only real positive for May is that expectations are so bad that anything close to 100 - itself pretty awful - can be spun as something to work with.
Chamberlain at least built up our armed forces
Weirdly if things had been economically harder, the debate might have been easier.
Who was the Labour muppet who took that to be an overall fall - not a reduction on overall growth.?
Oh wait...
Admittedly he was still a better PM than Brown, but that's like saying somebody is less batshit crazy than Piers Corbyn.
So you may well be right.
Good night.
One of a kind is as good as it gets. And as bad.
Guido had a story a few days ago: "Torygraph marketing types are planning a sales push in areas of the country that voted Leave. Internally, the initiative has been labelled ‘Project Newcastle’ – because it is all thanks to Geordie…"
https://order-order.com/2018/11/23/the-telegraphs-rebirth/
Voters say MPs should vote for the Brexit Deal by 41% to 38%
Voters think the Deal is the best on offer by a huge 52% to 19% margin
Voters think staying in the EU would be humiliating by a large 47% to 24% margin
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000?s=20
MPs massively out of touch on this and obsessed by petty party politics and ideology, the voters though back May
How about: Would leaving the EU but still being ruled over by the EU, being stopped from doing trade deals with other countries and having Northern Ireland annexed be humiliating?
There is still two weeks until the vote - it's entirely possible that momentum may build up which will increase public support further.
However that in no way means that MPs will vote for the deal. But if there is clear public support then very strong pressure will come to bear on MPs in any subsequent vote.
That forecast doesn't justify the ink used for it
What's to stop the EU from saying unless we agree to free movement they'll invoke the backstop and annex Northern Ireland?
As long as we have that backstop without any time limit and any way of getting out of it we're done for!
Now realistically you seem to accept that the EU reacting to Parliament's definitive rejection by rethinking the backstop is in their own interests. More importantly it is in Ireland's interests and it is only due to Ireland this is even an issue. Yes they could stubbornly insist upon no deal, but will they? They've only pushed this far as they were convinced May would fold, she did. They have no way to make Parliament fold though. So the choice is returned to them - fix the backstop and save your deal, or risk no deal. What will Ireland logically choose?
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6435545/British-people-Mays-Brexit-deal-exclusive-poll-finds.html
It's not a sure thing though, the question is how much Lab she gets, and how much extra Con she loses.
PS I think a bigger problem for her with the referendum route is getting ditched by Tory MPs. If she's lucky they'll pull the trigger first, and she can announce the referendum once she's safe.
It is only fanatics like you so obsessed about the backstop being impure, most voters could not care less
Of course her plan is the best on the table, its the only one on the table. The better one is a renegotiated plan and that's not on the table yet, that takes rejection to get there.
41% to approve and 38% to vote it down is mightily close, especially if there was any push-polling (apologies if that's an offensive thing to suggest) and doesn't reflect Geordie's front page.
Finnigan Brexit
If the vote goes down it will be VONC time.
But, yes. If it is the Noel Edmonds choice it won't be a choice for Labour.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.
Well done ERG......you have made "the impossible" the enemy of "the good enough".
And this is a survation poll, not a mail readers poll
IMHO Survation should be ashamed of that sort of transparently manipulative push-polling. It should apologise, withdraw the poll, and promise to do better in the future.
Also, I think the fact that the Mail is even trying to get this kind of unprofessional and substandard polling commissioned suggests the Mail are panicking because they've realised they've backed a lame one.
Macron and that guy from Spain have already been quite clear that they intend to use the backstop to make us suffer during the trade negotiations. Do you think they are lying?
The backstop is like Hague's being stuck in a burning room without any exit's analogy...
These people are not our friends and partners. Everything they are saying and doing is demonstrating that they are actually hostile enemies. We'd be mad to put ourselves in a position of total, potentially never-ending subservience.
That said, the Daily Mail's agenda is quite transparent.
The public will get another vote on this whether they like it or not. And when offered, they'll vote remain as least confusing choice.
Panic over, Survation isn't acting unprofessionally, the Mail is simply lying.
https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
Normality is resumed.
I strongly suspect these higher numbers are a form of expectation management but if the deal is going down by those margins don't get on it happening.
I've said here for months May should delegate the Irish backstop negotiations to the DUP. Say to Barnier I'm willing to discuss all UK-EU negotiations with you, but let Varadkar and Foster reach a direct accord on all Irish affairs. Any hint of the backstop could with all honesty have been be greeted with "I'll back it if Foster backs it, but I need her backing to carry Parliament". Plus the principles behind the Good Friday Agreement was one of the local communities taking control anyway and the DUP even reached an accord with Martin McGuinness so it wasn't unreasonable.
The idea that we could just screw over the DUP and get away with it, while simultaneously pissing off half the Tory backbenchers and still carry the bill through Parliament made no sense at all.
The Mail story is an almost complete fabrication.
https://www.survation.com/public-surveyed-on-the-draft-government-withdrawal-agreement/
I suspect a decent swing since then in line with other e.g. YouGov polling
https://order-order.com/2018/11/26/piers-corbyn-calls-resignation-remainist-mps/
We asked those aware of the draft agreement whether they support or oppose it, only 27% said they supported it while just under half (49%) were opposed. The remaining respondents said they neither supported nor opposed it, or they did not know.
It's seeing the brief flash of hope in their little faces that's heartbreaking, not the despair.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6435545/British-people-Mays-Brexit-deal-exclusive-poll-finds.html